Any team down 1-0 in a five-game series has problems. That’s where the Boston Red Sox find themselves after losing Game 1 of their American League Division Series tilt against the Tampa Bay Rays 5-0 in St. Petersburg on Thursday night. But before this series began, the Red Sox already had plenty of issues, and while Alex Cora did his best to mitigate them with some unexpected decisions concerning his pitching staff, he was left helpless thanks to a moribund Boston offense.

Problem No. 1: The Red Sox are all but forced to lean on left-handed starters against a team that crushes them

The Red Sox had to use Nathan Eovaldi just to get to this point. Unfortunately, the understandable decision to have their right-handed ace start the AL Wild Card game means that Tampa will likely face a left-handed starter in at least three games should the ALDS go the full five. That’s a problem when squaring off against the Rays, whose offense finished second in the AL only to the Houston Astros in terms of runs scored and features one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against southpaws. Here’s Tampa’s Game 1 lineup, with their 2021 performance against lefties:

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Meg Rowley and guest co-host Eric Longenhagen banter about Walker Buehler’s unusual approach to opening beers and their own past dental emergencies before recapping the AL Wild Card game. They consider what went wrong for the Yankees, and assess the Red Sox’s good starters, potent lineup, and shaky defense, as well as Nick Pivetta and Garrett Richards. Next they shift to the Red Sox/Rays ALDS matchup and consider the state of Tampa Bay’s pitching, the Rays’ talented hitters, and whether playoff experience (or a lack thereof) will matter for Tampa’s young starters. After that it’s on to the Astros and White Sox, featuring an embarrassment of good hitters including Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert, plus Houston’s talented pitching and Chicago’s dominant bullpen. Then they wrap up with thoughts on the NL Wild Card and play a game of stumpo with Arizona Fall League rosters. Read the rest of this entry »

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Coming into the American League Division Series, the Chicago White Sox faced a tough task: controlling the tireless Houston Astros offense, which paced the majors in scoring. They’re a nightmarish matchup; high on-base hitters up top, power in the middle, and enough firepower that Carlos Correa (134 wRC+) bats sixth and Kyle Tucker (147 wRC+) seventh.

Chicago’s plan? Fastballs. That’s less by design and more because Lance Lynn, their Game 1 starter, throws more of them than anyone else in baseball. Is that a smart plan against the Astros? No, it is not — they were the third-best fastball-hitting team in baseball this year by run value. On the other hand, they were also the third-best team against breaking pitches and the second-best against offspeed offerings, so it’s not as though there were easy choices. But fastballs? In this economy? It felt like it might be a long afternoon.

For an inning, Lynn managed it. He mixed four-seamers and cutters, keeping Houston hitters off-balance. His cutter could almost be called a slider, and it’s key to keeping opponents uneasy; it’s the only pitch he throws with glove-side movement. He set the side down in order — but even then, Alex Bregman smashed a line drive directly at Leury García for the third out. The cutters weren’t doing enough to keep Astros hitters from sitting on other fastballs.
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4:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to our AL Division Series Game 1 chat! We’ll be starting things off shortly

4:06	David Laurila: Greetings, all.

4:08	David Laurila: Not worth a poll, but today’s Lance matchup begs a question: Who is the best-ever baseball Lance? Berkman and Parrish are presumably the top candidates?

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Bobby Bradley is both a power hitter and a work-in-progress. Swinging from the left side, the 25-year-old Cleveland first baseman swatted 16 home runs this year in 279 plate appearances, but he also fanned 99 times. At 35.5%, his K-rate was fourth-highest among major league batters with at least 250 PAs. But again, Bradley hits for power. Despite an uninspiring .208/.294/.445 slash line, his 99 wRC+ was a mere tick below average. With further maturation and improved contact skills, Bradley could very well emerge as a force in the middle of the soon-to-be-Guardians lineup.

Bradley talked hitting when Cleveland visited Fenway Park in early September.

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David Laurila: Do you view hitting as more of a science, or as more of an art?

Bobby Bradley: “More of an art. Personally, I don’t look at it from the scientific side; I don’t get into all the data and all that. It’s more something that I take pride in, and I try to take care of my swing. So I’d say that it’s a work of art to me. I obviously haven’t perfected it, but at the same time, it’s like my masterpiece.”

Laurila: Do you have the same swing now that you did as a younger player?

Bradley: “It’s pretty close. For instance, it’s not entirely different from when I got drafted [in 2014]. There are maybe a couple of things, like where I put my hands. I also have a little bit bigger leg-kick now. But overall, it’s pretty close to where I was in high school.”

Laurila: When did the bigger leg-kick come about? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a special edition of Chin Music as I preview the postseason with eight experts from the eight remaining teams. We’ll be back tomorrow with a more traditional episode of the show.

• Atlanta Braves: David O’Brien of The Athletic
• Boston Red Sox: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe
• Chicago White Sox: Herb Lawerence of The Locked On Sox Podcast and The Score 670
• Houston Astros: Jake Kaplan of The Athletic
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs
• Milwaukee Brewers: Will Sammon of The Athletic
• San Francisco Giants: Justin Mason of FanGraphs
• Tampa Bay Rays: Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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