Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to what is going to be an abbreviated version of the usual festivities, as I have to be out the door at about 3:15 ET.
Travis: You buying Kyle Wright? Anyone planning on a Wright article? I’m curious if the changes he made are sustainable.
2:07
Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had a chance to lay eyes on Wright but I know people are talking about his hot start. He’s been lit up at the major league level before, but the Braves thought highly enough of him to make him a top-5 pick five years ago. We know pitching development is non-linear, so it shouldn’t be a shock when a guy takes a big leap forward, especially when it comes with a jump in velocity — often suggesting cleaner mechanics and possibly better command as well. I imagine we’ll have coverage of him soon enough, either from me or someone else
2:08
Chip: Should Yankee fans stop whining about their team now? Or is there something else they should be angry about?
2:10
Jay Jaffe: They should be comforted by the strong start, but I think they have reason to be concerned about the team’s catching situation, the overreliance upon aging players, and the fact that they didn’t land one of the star shortstops who hit the market. As irate as they were in the spring? No, but I think ownership could be doing more to fortify this team (even given their huge payroll).
We went over this just a couple of weeks ago: between Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, and Alec Bohm, the Phillies have no shortage of defensively challenged players who might be better served as the team’s designated hitter, and luckily for them, the DH is now a permanent thing in the National League. The team’s plan at the outset of the season was to use its two new free agent sluggers, Castellanos and Schwarber, to occupy that role while minimizing their exposure in the field, yet for almost two weeks now, the position has been occupied by Bryce Harper. The reigning NL MVP was supposed to be the team’s starting right fielder, but an elbow injury has led to him shelving his glove for the moment — and it’s coincided with him heating up after a slow start.
Harper started eight of the team’s first nine games in right field, but he hasn’t played the position since April 16. Instead, he’s remained in the lineup as the team’s DH for 12 straight games. He apparently injured the elbow while making a throw to home plate on an RBI single by the Mets’ Francisco Lindor on April 11:
Mike Trout is climbing up the WAR leaderboards; nature is healing. Still, it’s probably best to remember that we’re in the season’s early going. Eric Hosmer is batting .415! Meanwhile, Yuli Gurriel is batting .203. Some players have been unbelievably hot, others have been mysteriously cold — these extremes tend to balance out by season’s end. Players usually remain who they are, despite the memorable breakouts.
That principle also extends to changes in a player’s approach, pitch mix, or swing mechanics. Often, those eager to better themselves will start the season with a completely different look. Reality tends to get in the way, though. Sometimes injuries happen, or old habits prove hard to shake. Many players won’t see their changes through a year’s worth of trouble. It’s just the nature of things.
With that in mind, let’s talk about Austin Meadows. He’s a Detroit Tiger now, having arrived from St. Petersburg in a trade only his former team would dare to orchestrate. And he’s off to a pretty good start, with his .304/.418/.411 line translating to a 154 wRC+ in an offensively challenged season. It’s not so surprising, since Meadows has proven himself many times to be a great hitter. What is worth noting is how he’s arrived at that mark. In a few ways, Meadows looks like a different hitter than the one he was a year or two ago. So if you’re willing, I’d like to highlight some interesting (warning: subjective) things that have defined his productive April. I’ll present them in three parts. Read the rest of this entry »
Jeff McNeil has been pretty good so far this year. He’s hitting .328/.388/.492, good for a 163 wRC+. He’s starting all over the field, making the Mets’ complicated lineup decisions easier. That’s great! That’s all good. Today, though, I’m more interested in the fact that he’s displaying strike zone judgment usually reserved for Juan Soto, Joey Votto, and God.
McNeil has always been one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball. That hasn’t changed this year. Here are the hitters who swing the most at pitches in the strike zone:
This is not news. From 2018-21, his career prior to this year, McNeil led baseball in zone swing rate. This year, he leads baseball in zone swing rate. He is continuing to do what he’s always done! More at 11.
But wait, there is more. You know how these swing-happy types work. Take a look at the list again. García has a career 6.3% walk rate and it’s heading lower this year. Anderson has a career 3.5% walk rate. Mountcastle hardly walks for a slugger. Seager – well, okay, Seager is just great. But swinging a lot at pitches in the strike zone also generally means swinging a lot at pitches outside of the strike zone.
Indeed, García and Anderson are the two hitters chasing the most pitches outside the zone. Mountcastle is in the top 15. Seager – yeah, still great. But McNeil is nowhere near that! He’s chasing only 29.1% of pitches outside the zone, a lower rate than the league as a whole and by far a career low. His in-zone swing rate, by the way, is a career high. Did Jeff McNeil crack the code? Read the rest of this entry »
This week on the show, we check in on the always-interesting Colorado Rockies, who have been exceeding expectations in the early going, before getting into recent beanball drama and more.
To begin the episode, David Laurila welcomes Thomas Harding of MLB.com, who has covered the Rockies for decades. The pair talk about the odd team’s odd history, what is different this year, and why there are reasons to be excited going forward. We also get insight on players like Connor Joe, Brendan Rodgers, C.J. Cron, Ezequiel Tovar, and Chad Kuhl, as well as the influence Bud Black and Kris Bryant have had on the club. [3:06]
After that, Ben Clemens catches up with Dan Szymborski, freshly returned from vacation. The duo gives the Rockies their due before discussing the Mets/Cardinals rivalry and the recent flare up of the unwritten rules. Ben wants to know exactly what a bench warning is, while Dan is concerned about some ethical loopholes. They also contemplate whether “Aaron Brooks” is the best-performing name across pro sports and the difficulties of projecting players coming from foreign leagues, as well as if we should buy into Nelson Cruz’s potential decline, Ben having his identity harmlessly stolen, and Dan responding to emails not meant for him. [25:10]
To purchase a FanGraphs membership for yourself or as a gift, click here.
To donate to FanGraphs and help us keep things running, click here.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about MacKenzie Gore and how long a player’s career has to be for something he does to be described as a “career high,” Nick Senzel’s proclivity toward catcher’s interference and the Reds’ ice-cold start, the first-place Los Angeles Angels, the hot starts of Mike Trout, Carlos Rodón, Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, and others, the aesthetics of swinging strikes vs. called strikes, the return of Ronald Acuña Jr., a Cardinals-Mets beanbrawl, the Orioles embracing an apparent trend toward catchers setting up over the plate and not varying their targets from pitch to pitch, and whether the zombie runner violates the rulebook, then end by following up on a Stat Blast about Byron Buxton, Mike Squires, and the biggest team record differentials with and without certain players.
During the past two years, we here at FanGraphs have spent a good bit of time staring into the abyss in contemplation. Specifically, we’ve wondered about a world without Mike Trout, or at least a world where he’s no longer the game’s top player. Who will inherit the mantle of this generation’s Mantle? What would our lowered expectations for Trout look like? What are the chances that in his age-30 season, he’s a bust? What would the playoff races look like without him?
Alas, we got an all-too-real demonstration of that last question just weeks after Dan Szymborski posed it last April, as Trout was limited to 36 games due to a right calf strain that he sustained on May 17. The strain, which occurred as he ran the bases on an inconsequential two-out popup, was supposed to sideline him for six to eight weeks, already the longest absence of his career. It turned out to be worse than expected; he never got comfortable enough in his recovery to begin a rehab assignment, and didn’t return to action before season’s end. Thankfully, he’s back now, and while he may not be better than ever, what his ridiculous stat line — .365/.476/.808 for a 270 wRC+, with all of those numbers major-league bests save for the batting average — presupposes is… maybe he is?
If Trout is on the precipice of age-related decline, it hasn’t come yet. After starting the year just 3-for-15, he’s put together a 10-game hitting streak, during which he’s putting up cheat-code numbers (.432/.523/.946). The streak went on ice for a few days when he was hit on the left hand by an 81 mph slider from the Rangers’ Spencer Patton on April 17; I don’t know about you, but I can’t watch the clip without the urge to yell, “Move, Mike!” when he reflexively pulls his hands down towards his waist and puts them in harm’s way. Thankfully, x-rays were negative, and while he missed three games, he’s kicked things up a notch since returning, with multi-hit efforts in four of his last six games, and seven of the 11 hits within going for extra bases. Read the rest of this entry »
Notes
Cabrera was shut down in early April with a biceps issue. This came a few days after throwing three impressive spring training frames against the Nationals, during which he notched three strikeouts, including one to Nelson Cruz. His stint on the IL, though relatively brief, is the latest entry in what has been a long history of injuries since his professional career began in 2016, but he put forth a strong showing in his first start of the season. Read the rest of this entry »
BettsBellingerCaruso: East Coasters that send 8AM meeting requests I hope they metaphorically get hit with terrible BABIP luck for the rest of their lives that is all
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon to people with righteous time zones! Good morning to the rest of you.
12:03
Ryan Breynolds: When is it time to start panicking with Nick Gonzales? The K-rate seems to be a real problem.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Nick Martinez?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Certainly more than three games. Especially because his plate discipline numbers suggest a lower walk rate.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’d actually be more worried that he’s not throwing as hard as he was overseas.
When Alek Manoah takes the mound against the Boston Red Sox this afternoon, he’ll do so with an early-career track record befitting one of baseball’s best young pitchers. Since making his major league debut last May, the 24-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander has allowed just 89 hits, with 145 strikeouts, in 129-and-two-thirds innings. Moreover, he augments a 12-2 won-lost record — as a team, Toronto has won all but four of his 23 career starts — with a 3.05 ERA and a 3.78 FIP.
And you probably don’t want to crowd the plate against the 6-foot-6, 260-pound hurler. Manoah, whom the Blue Jays drafted 11th overall in 2019 out of West Virginia University, led all AL pitchers last year with 16 HBPs. A gentle giant off the field, he takes no prisoners between the white lines.
Manoah talked about his repertoire — primarily his slider and his two-seamer — when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park last week.
———
David Laurila: What do you know about your pitches that you didn’t when you first signed?
Alek Manoah: “I always knew the sinker was pretty good, just based off the hitters’ feedback. But now, understanding the numbers a little bit, it’s how drastically different it is from my four-seam. That and how it plays with my changeup. I think that would be the biggest thing.” Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to what is going to be an abbreviated version of the usual festivities, as I have to be out the door at about 3:15 ET.
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Subscribe to Stathead
Facebook Group
Effectively Wild Wiki
Twitter Account
iTunes Feed
Get Our Merch!
Dan Szymborski