Over the last decade or so, I’ve noticed a trend I find intriguing, a pattern of fans building up a cult of personality around players on their favorite team who are, to put it politely, average at best. Now, before we dwell too much on the idea of a “bad” major leaguer, it’s worth noting that even the so-called “bad” players are still elite in terms of their ability to play the sport of baseball. To even make it to the big leagues means having proven yourself in the minors, often for years. They may not stack up compared to All-Star teammates and future Hall of Famers, but I want to emphasize that these players are still among the best in the world at what they do.

Still, even with that in context, there are players who fall into a utility or bench-player role, guys who likely don’t have sell-out jerseys in the team store or even earn the dreaded “Quad-A” moniker. Yet it’s these players who interest me most because for some reason, some of them become magnets for fan interest. Don Kelly, a utility player for the Detroit Tigers, hasn’t appeared on the field for the team since 2014; he has a career line of .230/.294/.334 over nine seasons, a career wRC+ of 72, and 0.2 career WAR. Yet to this day, Tigers fans will argue that it is Kelly, and not Don Mattingly, who is the true “Donnie Baseball.”

I posit there are two parts to what makes these players fan-favorites. The first thing that makes a “bad” player beloved is the positive feeling they create for an audience, be it as a generally likable individual or as a spark-plug who is watchable because you don’t know if they’ll crack a joke or beat the tar out of a Gatorade cooler on any given day. The feeling these players inspire in us, the GIFs and videos that hit Twitter as a result, is part of establishing a mythos that has nothing to do with their stat line. Who among us hasn’t seen a GIF of Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Brett Phillips in “airplane mode” after his unexpectedly clutch walk-off in Game Four of the 2020 World Series and smiled? Read the rest of this entry »

For the first time since 2006, candidates from the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball are being considered for placement on a Hall of Fame ballot. While the 10-candidate slate to be voted upon later this year by the Early Baseball Era Committee has not yet been finalized, those who were previously shut out by baseball’s shameful color line, and then again by the Hall of Fame following the election of 17 players, managers, and executives by the Special Committee on the Negro Leagues in 2006, are eligible once again.

In a statement to FanGraphs, Jon Shestakofsky, the Hall’s vice president of communications and education, said, “The Hall of Fame’s Early Baseball Committee, which is scheduled to meet for the first time this December, will consider 10 candidates comprised of players, umpires, managers and executives/pioneers who made their greatest impacts in baseball prior to 1950. Negro Leagues candidates will be eligible for consideration as part of this ballot.” Shestakofsky later clarified that the eligibility applies to pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates as well.

At a time when Major League Baseball is in the midst of a long-overdue reckoning with regards to Negro Leagues history, branding and symbolism, and the representation of Black Americans at all levels within the sport, this is good news. It comes a year after the Negro Leagues Centennial Celebration, which has helped to introduce new generations of fans and media members to some often-overlooked greats, an effort that has met with such success that Shohei Ohtani is drawing comparisons not just to Babe Ruth but to Bullet Rogan and Martín Dihigo. It stands to reason that the renewed spotlight on Black baseball would extend to Cooperstown. Read the rest of this entry »

Francisco Urbaez wasn’t sure what to expect when he reported to spring training. Signed by the Cincinnati Reds as a non-drafted free agent in June of last year, the 23-year-old infielder knew only that he was being given an opportunity. To say he’s made the most of it would be an understatement. In 275 plate appearances with the High-A Dayton Dragons, Urbaez is slashing an eyebrow-raising .332/420/.454.

A native of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Urbaez didn’t come to the United States solely to play baseball. The son of a mechanical engineer and a psychologist, he came to earn a degree.

“That was my family’s plan,” explained Urbaez, who spent two years at Chipola Junior College, and two more at Florida Atlantic University. “They were like, “Go to the States and play ball, and whatever happens happens, but you need an education first.”

Already fluent in English when he arrived in the U.S. at age 18, Urbaez was initially an Accounting major, but then changed to International Business, and ultimately to Business. And while baseball wasn’t the priority, it did serve as a catalyst. Former Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is involved with a foundation that helps Latin American student-athletes come to the U.S. via scholarships, and Urbaez was one of the beneficiaries.

Unlike many Dominicans currently playing professional baseball, Urbaez hadn’t attracted a lot of attention while on the island. He received only one offer from an MLB organization, and that was after he’d committed to come Stateside to begin his studies. Teams didn’t exactly knock down his door during his JC tenure, either. It wasn’t until his junior year at FAU that scouts began to take notice. Prominent among them was Andrew Fabian, whose familiarity with Urbaez dated back to his time as a coach at Hillsborough Community College. Now an area scout with the Reds, Fabian saw potential in the under-the-radar second baseman. Read the rest of this entry »

The A’s are in the midst of another playoff hunt as they look to make their fourth postseason in a row, but this looks to be the first year in the run where a reliever doesn’t lead the pitching staff in WAR. Up there with Sean Manaea (2.9 WAR, 127 IP), Chris Bassitt (2.4 WAR, 137 IP) has taken a big step forward in his development, working a career best 19% K-BB%. Manaea’s success can be attributed to an across-the-board velocity spike (roughly 2 mph) that’s made an already great arsenal exceptional. Bassitt’s breakout is less clear and warrants some investigation.

Before I get into usage, I should note that his four-seam fastball velocity is a pedestrian 93.4 mph (league average is 93.7), and the shape on the four-seamer, sinker, and cutter are also average relative to the league.

For clarification on the sinker and cutter, vertical movement values greater than zero mean more drop than average. The four-seamer is rather poor when it comes to having the ride we associate with success in today’s game. The sinker, while it does well by horizontal movement, is still below average by vertical movement. And while the cutter shows great drop, there is a lack of cut or horizontal movement.

Despite being the only pitch with good vertical movement, though, it’s the cutter that has been lagging.

I bring all this up because these are the pitches that Bassitt overwhelmingly relies upon, and it’s a unique combo.

It’s an extreme approach, mashing together a combination of three average pitches by movement to the tune of a 3.51 FIP. There is no extension magic, but there is maybe some vertical approach angle ability at play.

There are far more robust calculations for vertical approach angle that are unavailable to me, but we can leverage some quick back of the envelope geometry to work with a loose version of our own. Just using release height, pitch height, and release extension, Bassitt is above average in keeping a flat approach angle that can paper over the lack of vertical movement. (“Above average” means that he does well to locate up in the zone but also releases from a lower height.)

Better than trying to justify my choice of simple geometry, how about I just show you where Bassitt stands by release and average location?

There’s great height on the four-seamer, but what’s arguably as important is how low Bassitt’s release is for a player of his height. One way to hack a non-rising four-seamer is to release it as low as possible but throw it high in the strike zone to recreate the same plane where a hitter feels like he has to adjust his hands to get his barrel where it needs to be. Bassitt does just this; he’s 6’5”, but his release is nearly a foot lower at 5.5 feet. There’s a flatness to the four-seamer that helps it play up in the zone, and the sinker still has enough raw movement to be effective as well.

Tunneling pitches and locating is great, but every pitcher wants to be more unpredictable to a hitter. Bassitt is in a high tier when it comes to combined fastball usage, but there’s a difference that should be noted on a per-plate appearance basis. What does that look like for the hitter? How often should someone step in against Bassitt and expect only fastballs?

For a plate appearance against Bassitt, more often than not, a batter will have to expect an offspeed pitch at some point. The changeup, slider, and curve are featured less than 10% of the time, but the changeup is the only of those pitches that can be thrown with more regularity because it doesn’t have a huge velocity gap (15-plus mph) with the fastball like the curve and slider do. The curve is so loopy and slow it’s almost a kind of shock pitch to steal a strike, and while the slider is fine by movement, it may be too slow to throw with regularity to lefties.

What Bassitt does is overcome his inherent fastball movement, particularly the lack of rise that is so desired for four-seamers in today’s game. Not only that, but he’s also found a mix that allows him to throw what he can command well while still having enough in his arsenal to keep batters thinking about the offspeed coming their way. Performing as well as he is right now with this much fastball usage opens up the door for a more refined slider and/or cutter to take a larger role down the road.

Bassitt can follow Lynn as a roadmap, but with the cutter as poorly performing as it is and the slider platoon dependent, there’s room for him to grow. He has found great success not having to throw a slider more often or a better performing cutter, but there’s a possible next level if he felt the need to become more unpredictable. Despite somewhat below average raw stuff, he has excelled — and there are still steps he can take to get even better.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, pardon my tardiness. I have been working on a big Hall of Fame-related piece that I had hoped to run today but that still has some loose ends to tie up and got a little carried away.

2:07	Jay Jaffe: That piece absorbed a lot of my attention this week, hence the lighter load of published pieces. I was very happy with the response that the Joey Votto piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joey-vottos-gotten-his-groove-back/)

2:08	Jay Jaffe: Anyway on with the show…

2:10

Jay Jaffe: The news of Richard’s death hit me hard, because I remember how impressive and imposing he was (especially when Nolan Ryan joined that staff), and then how sad it was that he was struck down in  his prime. A tribute to him is right in my wheelhouse, but as I am heading to San Diego for a week of vacation with my parents and my brother and his family on Sunday, I’m not sure i can put together something in a timely fashion. We’ll see.

2:11	Jay Jaffe: Reminds me that I wrote my Frank Robinson tribute while in Salt Lake City for a long weekend of skiing. tough timing.

Read the rest of this entry »

When the Blue Jays picked up José Berríos at the trade deadline, it wasn’t hard to see the reasoning behind it. Though not without significant cost in the form of two top 100 prospects, the move was clearly an effort to bolster Toronto’s starting pitching in preparation for a potential postseason berth. Berríos is a welcome complement to Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray at the top of the rotation, but he isn’t the only noteworthy addition to the Blue Jays’ starting pitching in 2021.

Alek Manoah was called up to make his major league debut earlier this season, continuing a fast-tracked professional career that has required him to adapt quickly at every step. The righty was something of a late bloomer, attracting little attention until developing into an elite prospect at West Virginia, eventually going in the first round of the 2019 draft. He made six starts at Low-A in 2019, and impressed the organization enough at the alternate sight in 2020 to begin this season at Triple-A. Even more improbable than skipping both High- and Double-A entirely is that it only took a polished showing at spring training and three starts at Triple-A to convince management that he was major league ready.

Unlikely as it may seem, Manoah’s expedited trip to the majors was backed up by his numbers. In 18 innings at Triple-A this year, Manoah struck out 27 and walked only three, while allowing one run on seven hits. He issued four hit-by-pitches during that time (three came in his first game of the season), which is high, but is also likely an ironic byproduct of the same mechanics that make him so effective. Manoah works exclusively from the stretch, and when he lunges toward the plate during his delivery, he lands toward the third base side of the rubber – an awkward look for a big-bodied righty. While this cross-body motion does an exceptional job of hiding the ball, especially from right-handed hitters, when he doesn’t manage to fully whip his arm across his large frame, he has a tendency to miss arm-side, and given that top-notch deception, hitters tend not to have time to react quickly enough to get out of the way. Aside from that explainable HBP spike in those three starts, he showed virtually no signs of the growing pains you might expect from a guy who skipped two levels of the minors. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman of Céspedes Family BBQ banter about Jake’s baseball bike trip (and Jordan’s accompanying car ride) from New York to Chicago. Then, in honor of Mike Trout’s 30th birthday, they draft their favorite things about Trout and his incredible career.

Audio intro: Jay-Z, "30 Something"
Audio outro: Smash Mouth, "You Are My Number One"

Link to Jake’s fundraising site
Link to Jake’s trip stats
Link to Episode 762
Link to Sam on Trout and Grichuk
Link to Sam on Trout’s 2012 season
Link to story on Trout’s no. 1 jersey
Link to post about Trout’s August 2015
Link to video of Trout’s left-handed BP
Link to Pedro Moura on Trout’s future
Link to Ben on Trout’s rookie year
Link to Ben on Trout’s dad
Link to Trout’s spring training stats
Link to Trout’s Hardy homer robbery
Link to 2009 draft video
Link to Trout Weather Channel video
Link to 2012 SuperPretzel press release
Link to 2016 SuperPretzel ad
Link to SuperPretzel website
Link to list of Trout hypotheticals

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These are notes on prospects from Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Eric’s Notes — Games on 8/4

Chandler Redmond, 1B/2B/3B/LF, St. Louis Cardinals
Level & Affiliate: Hi-A Peoria Age: 24 Org Rank: 34 FV: 35+
Line: 2-for-3, 2 HR, BB

Notes
It’s time for Redmond to be promoted. He’s hit .245/.361/.520 since June 22 and owns a career .259/.368/.508 career line, but he’s done so as an old-for-the-level prospect. Redmond was a 32nd round pick out of Gardner Webb, so it made sense to begin his career in the Appy League even though he was already 22. Now 24, he’s not seen a plate appearance above A-ball. Redmond has big, all-fields power and has played all over the field. He could be a bat-first piece, hidden on defense wherever the opposing club is least-likely to hit one that day. Visually, his swing is kind of grooved, and I’d like to see Redmond’s contact skills stress-tested against more advanced arms. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 934

Now that the FanGraphs staff has recovered from the trade deadline, we bring you divine discussion about last week’s many moves as well as some draft fallout.

• To kick things off, Dan Szymborski and Jason Martinez get together to tackle the flurry of transactions we saw last week. The duo gives a thumbs up or thumbs down to all 30 clubs for their deadline, with some judged more for the moves they didn’t make than the ones they did. Dan and Jason also discuss the excellence of Robbie Ray, the impact of a healthy Chris Sale on Boston’s rotation, and the Padres doing their best to keep up in the NL West. [2:40]
• Following that, Eric Longenhagen is joined by Brendan Gawlowski to talk about the Kumar Rocker situation. Brendan recently wrote about the Mets’ failure to sign the 10th overall pick, which feels like the fault of both the organization and the draft itself. Eric and Brendan discuss how and why this happened, as well as some of the other current failures of the draft as an exercise. The pair also consider the history of draft medical mishaps, the Mets whiffing on having a safety pick, the other players who didn’t sign this year, and why the industry can be so slow to innovate and progress. [50:01]

Read the rest of this entry »

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Just as the Joey Gallo trade ended an era of Rangers baseball, the Cubs’ flurry of moves at this year’s trade deadline closed the door on Chicago’s championship core. While Kyle Hendricks, Willson Contreras, and Jason Heyward still remain from the 2016 team, the trades of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo send things out with an exclamation point rather than the Texas comma. Five games below .500 and with a much weakened roster, we now project Chicago to finish 74-88; the last time the franchise finished with a worse record was 2014.

In a very real way, the 2010s Cubs did accomplish one very important feat: they won a championship. While I don’t subscribe to the notion that a great run for a team must involve a title, I also have not yet been placed in the role of some brutal autarch who determines how the history books are written. The Cubs won the World Series, and the Rangers did not, and both teams will be remembered differently as a result.

Still, the way it ended leaves a curious dissatisfaction about the Cubs. The dizzying heights of 2016 faded quickly, and the subsequent single NLCS appearance and pair of wild card losses were not the stuff of legend. The sudden turning-off of the cash spigot didn’t help, either; after spending $217 million in free agency after the 2017 season, Chicago has spent a total of $21 million in the offseasons since, or roughly half what the Rays have paid out in that span. (The mid-June 2019 signing of Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43 million contract is one of the lone splurges.) In the end, the farm system and those low-key signings couldn’t make up for the attrition elsewhere, and the Cubs’ domination of the NL Central was a brief affair.

Before last winter, team president Jed Hoyer talked about the Cubs going into a retooling phase rather than a full teardown, which left me skeptical. But Chicago still has some advantages that suggest a return to playoff relevance might not be that far away.

Read the rest of this entry »