In the first notable signing of the offseason, the Dodgers and left-handed starting pitcher Andrew Heaney reportedly agreed to terms on one-year, $8.5 million contact. Though Heaney was not listed on our top 50 free agent rankings, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported on Sunday that he had quickly generated a hot market. Multiple teams were interested in the southpaw; in Sherman’s words, they were hoping to find the “next Robbie Ray.”

There are some similarities. Like Heaney, Ray signed quickly last winter, inking a one-year, $8 million pact with the Blue Jays on November 7. In Toronto, he found the strike zone for the first time in his career and turned in a Cy Young-caliber season (he’s one of the AL’s three finalists) with a 2.84 ERA, 3.69 FIP and 3.9 WAR in 193.1 innings pitched. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal also likened the contract to Ray’s deal from last offseason, if only because the general premise (an attempt at fixing a broken pitcher) and terms (Heaney signed for just $500,000 more than Ray) are quite similar.

That’s where the similarities between the two hurlers end. Heaney had a rough 2021 season, but the issues facing the two pitchers could not be more different. Ray struggled to harness his excellent stuff; Heaney, on the other hand, posted a 7.3% walk rate in 2021, a tick above his career-average into this past year (6.5%). While both pitchers flashed the potential for much more upside than their results had shown, how the Blue Jays fixed Ray and how the Dodgers will have to fix Heaney will deviate significantly. Read the rest of this entry »

The period between the end of the World Series and the official start of free agency is usually uneventful, with teams taking care of procedural moves to get their rosters ready for the long offseason. That wasn’t the case for the Reds. On the first day of the offseason, the team traded Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers for infield prospect Nick Quintana. A day later, Nick Castellanos exercised his opt-out clause, forgoing two more years in Cincinnati and $34 million in total salary to test the market. A few days later, the Cubs announced they had claimed a surprisingly available Wade Miley off waivers. It was a pretty eventful few days for the Reds, and they now enter the offseason with a lot more question marks hanging over their roster than they had before the Fall Classic’s conclusion.

All three of these moves have significant implications for the Reds’ payroll in 2022. In a media session after the Barnhart trade last Wednesday, Reds general manager Nick Krall explained the reasoning behind that move: “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” That same rationale explains why Miley was so freely available to the league on waivers. While Castellanos opting out of his two remaining years with the club was unsurprising after his phenomenal 2021, his $17 million salary next year is now off the books, and both Barnhart and Miley held club options for next season — $7.5 million for the former and $10 million for the latter.

Even though those comments from Krall are couched in business speak, it’s not hard to understand the direction the Reds are headed this offseason. After a hefty increase in payroll from just over $100 million in 2018 to a non-pro-rated $149 million in ’20, the Reds look like they’re about to cut spending for the second season in a row. Even with Castellanos, Barnhart, and Miley off the roster, their estimated payroll for 2022 currently comes out to $131 million, $10 million over their final payroll figure for this season and just $17 million below the franchise high-water mark from 2020.

Given that payroll number and their comments, the Reds probably don’t have much room to add any players to address the numerous holes on their roster. They currently have just over $70 million in salary committed to five players in 2022: Joey Votto ($25MM), Mike Moustakas ($16MM), Sonny Gray ($10.7MM), Eugenio Suárez ($11.3MM), and Shogo Akiyama ($8MM). And that doesn’t take into account the 10 players due to receive a raise in salary arbitration this offseason. It’s likely they’ll try to move Moustakas, Gray, or another one of their high-priced players to free up further salary space. But this isn’t a case of addition by subtraction; the Reds are taking steps to field a team that constitutes a significant step back from the competitive rosters from the last two seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Vientos profiles as a middle-of-the-order basher in a big-league lineup. Currently the No. 5 prospect in the New York Mets system, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound third baseman is coming off a season where he slashed .281/.352/.581 and hit 25 home runs in just 349 plate appearances between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse. One of the youngest players in his draft class when he was taken 59th overall in 2017 out of Plantation, Florida’s American Heritage High School, the right-handed hitting corner infielder put up those numbers at 21 years of age.

Vientos discussed his approach and early-career development prior to the end of the minor-league campaign.

———

David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Mark Vientos: “I like to consider myself an all-around type of hitter. A lot of people consider me just a power threat, but I feel like I can hit for average and power. As time goes on, and as I mature at the plate, I think my patience and discipline is going to be a lot better. I’m learning how they’re pitching me at these levels. Hopefully soon I’ll be at the major-league level and will be figuring out how they pitch me there.

“How teams pitch you differs, too. How the Red Sox [affiliate] pitches you might differ from how the Blue Jays pitch you. It’s about recognizing those things, but for the most part I’m looking for a fastball, because that’s the best pitch I could hit. I handle the fastball well.”

Laurila: Your writeup in this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook said that while you can square up most fastballs, you struggle with spin from right-handers. To what extent is that true? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk to Evan Drellich, senior writer for The Athletic, about the state of labor negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA, the major issues separating the two sides, the odds of a work stoppage, how long a potential lockout could last, how the CBA talks may affect transaction activity, how previous rounds of bargaining led to this one, whether a salary cap and floor could work, transitioning from covering teams as a beat writer to covering the business of baseball, the future of minor league housing and local broadcast blackouts, breaking the Astros sign-stealing story, and collaborating on reporting with Ken Rosenthal.

Audio intro: Ian M Bailey, "Take it or Leave it"
Audio outro: Attic Lights, "Lock Me Out"

Link to Evan on how a lockout would work
Link to Evan on previous bargaining rounds
Link to Evan on latest MLBPA proposal
Link to Evan on Marvin Miller
Link to Ben on Lords of the Realm
Link to Morning Consult poll
Link to Greg Bouris EW interview
Link to Evan on blackouts and streaming
Link to report about future streaming service
Link to Evan on minor league housing
Link to The Athletic Baseball Show
Link to original sign-stealing report
Link to preorder Evan’s book
Link to Stove League teaser video
Link to stream Stove League via Kocowa
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

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The champagne from the Braves’ World Series win is barely dry and the offseason business of baseball is underway. Meanwhile, it’s going to be a bountiful season in terms of Hall of Fame debate if not results. On Friday afternoon, the Hall released the long-awaited 10-person ballots for both the Early Baseball and Golden Days Era Committees. Not only were both slates and their respective elections delayed by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but this is the first time that either group has been considered under the staggered four-Era Committee format announced in the summer of 2016 — and the first time that Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates have been considered since 2006. Both ballots will be voted upon by separate 16-member committees on December 5, with the results announced at 6 pm ET on MLB Network’s MLB Tonight.

This is also the first time that two Era Committee groups have been considered within the same election cycle, a dizzying proposition for those of us trying to sort it all out. And all of this is separate from the BBWAA slate of recently-retired candidates, which will be announced on November 22. If you’re wondering where we are in the staggered Era Committee schedule, this should clear things up (note that the year designated is for induction, and that the voting generally occurs in December of the previous year):

The Early Baseball Era Committee ballot covers candidates who made their greatest impacts in baseball prior to 1950. The 10 candidates, all deceased, are Bill Dahlen, John Donaldson, Bud Fowler, Vic Harris, Grant “Home Run” Johnson, Lefty O’Doul, Buck O’Neil, Dick “Cannonball” Redding, Allie Reynolds and George “Tubby” Scales. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to perhaps the most uncertain edition of FanGraphs’ annual top-50 free-agent rankings. In past years, luminaries like Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, and Craig Edwards have helmed this exercise. This year, I’ve enlisted a little help from my friends to fill their shoes.

Below, I’ve ranked the top 50 free agents and provided contract estimates for each of them. For the top 25 players, I’ve also written some short commentary, alternately about their potential suitors and what makes them enticing. Devan Fink, Brendan Gawlowski, Kevin Goldstein, Jay Jaffe, Eric Longenhagen, Dan Szymborski, and Jon Tayler have provided their own breakdowns for each player in the top 50 (with me chipping in for a few guys at the end), focusing mainly on the players themselves rather than their market.

Players are ranked in the order that I prefer them. That’s often the same as ranking them in contract order, but not always. In some cases, I’d prefer a player who I expect will get less money over one who stands to make more. I’ll generally make note of that in the accompanying comment, but just to reiterate, the list isn’t exclusively ordered by descending average annual value, or total dollars, or anything of that sort. All dollar amounts are estimated guarantees. Plenty of contracts in the bottom half of this list could end up with team options tacked on, but those aren’t included in these estimates. Some players in the top 10 could end up with opt outs, which also aren’t included. Unless otherwise noted, all projections are Steamer 2022 projections. The listed ages indicate the age-season the player is about to play.

We’ve made a note of which players received a Qualifying Offer, which is worth $18.4 million this year. Teams had five days after the World Series to make those offers, after which time players have 10 days to accept or decline. The uncertain nature of this year’s collective bargaining agreement makes predicting whether players will accept Qualifying Offers more difficult than usual. As a refresher, if a player receives and declines a qualifying offer, the team that eventually signs them forfeits a draft pick, while the team that made the offer gains one. Which draft picks change hands depends on the circumstances of both teams, as well as the total dollar value of the contract signed. Read the rest of this entry »