There’s a bit of wiggle room to the definition of “contender” in the NL East. That is what drove the Phillies to buy on trade deadline day, with a particular focus on shoring up some of the pitching depth issues that have plagued them throughout the season.

They made two moves on Friday, one small and one big, netting them a total of three pitchers. They swung the big trade in the afternoon, acquiring Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy, and minor league lefty Hans Crouse from the Rangers in exchange for Spencer Howard and two prospects: righties Kevin Gowdy and Josh Gessner. They also received $4 million from Texas. This move came after one made earlier in the day that saw them acquire minor league lefty Braeden Ogle from the Pirates in exchange for minor league catcher Abrahan Gutierrez.

The moves were certainly motivated by the relatively soft competition in the division as well as a weak rest-of-season schedule that could allow the Phillies to make some late noise. Philadelphia is 51-51 at present, but they’re just 3.5 games behind the Mets for first place in the East, and the .476 win percentage for their remaining strength of schedule ranks as the second-weakest in baseball (just behind the Reds). Their ability to hang around, coupled with the Mets’ injury issues, provided the front office a blueprint to the postseason with odds that might be a bit rosier than their record would suggest. Into games on Friday, our Playoff Odds give the Phillies a 20.3% chance of punching a ticket to October baseball, something they have not done since 2011. They have the second-longest active playoff drought in the majors. Read the rest of this entry »

The NL West has been a slugging match all year. The Giants have the best record in baseball. The Dodgers are hot on their heels and just added two All-Stars to go for the division title, with the Padres in hot pursuit. San Francisco wasn’t going to take that lying down, though. As Jeff Passan first reported, the team has acquired Kris Bryant from the Cubs in exchange for two prospects, Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian.

Bryant has been a hotly rumored deadline chip for seemingly forever; as soon as the Cubs hit a rough patch in the standings, they announced their intentions to sell off pieces that weren’t controllable past 2021, with him, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Báez the obvious candidates for a move. All three have now been dealt to contenders, and for my money, Bryant is the best player of the three. He’ll slot into San Francisco’s roster all over the place, one of the perks of trading for him; he plays all four corner spots capably and has even started 10 games in center as the Cubs dealt with injury and ineptitude in the outfield. He’s not going to win a Gold Glove out there anytime soon — and the less said about his two innings at shortstop, the better — but if you’re looking to squeeze Bryant’s bat into the lineup, there are any number of possibilities.

That bat is the reason San Francisco made this trade. Rumors of Bryant’s demise were greatly exaggerated; he had an absolutely abysmal 2020, playing in only 34 games and compiling easily the worst line of his career, but he’s been back to his old tricks in 2021. That game is power and walks, and it’s worked to the tune of a .267/.358/.503 slash line, an on-base-light approximation of his career line.
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The Braves could have been buyers or sellers at the start of this trade deadline season; I wouldn’t have been surprised either way. They have struggled to gain traction in a winnable National League East, and despite preseason projections that had them finishing 91–71 and in a tie with the Mets atop the division, they have not spent a single day in 2021 over .500 and entered Friday with playoff odds of just 9.7%.

A big reason for Atlanta’s woes is the outfield, where the team has lost two starters. On June 1, Marcell Ozuna dislocated two fingers on his left hand on a slide; less than a week later, he was arrested in connection to a domestic violence call and was charged with aggravated assault strangulation and misdemeanor battery. It’s unlikely he sees the field again this season (and probably as a Brave as well). A little over a month later, things reached DEFCON 1 when Ronald Acuña Jr. landed awkwardly trying to make a catch and tore his ACL, which required season-ending surgery.

The Braves have tried patching those holes as best they can. Not long after Acuña went down, they sent Bryce Ball to the Cubs for Joc Pederson. On Friday, they tossed some more bodies into the mix, adding Eddie Rosario from Cleveland and Adam Duvall from Miami. In exchange, Cleveland will get Pablo Sandoval, and the Marlins will receive Alex Jackson, who ranked eighth in our preseason Atlanta top prospects list. (The Braves also picked up Jorge Soler from the Royals in a deal announced after the deadline; we’ll have that transaction written up separately later.) Read the rest of this entry »

The Oakland A’s continued their successful quest to be deadline buyers despite not having a great farm system by acquiring Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes from the Washington Nationals in exchange for three prospects, the best of whom is ultra-athletic catcher Drew Millas.

Gomes, who’s slashing .271/.323/.454 this year (in line with his career norms), fortifies an A’s catching situation that got thin when the club dealt away Jonah Heim for Elvis Andrus in the offseason. Gomes crushes lefties and should get the occasional extra start against them in place of Sean Murphy as a result, but he’s a huge upgrade over incumbent backup Aramis Garcia, whose approach (a 1% walk rate!) has been a significant impediment to any kind of offensive output. Gomes also has a great arm and has had the lowest average pop time in the majors every year since 2015 according to Baseball Savant (scroll all the way to the bottom). But he isn’t a great receiver and sometimes drew the visible ire of his pitchers (especially Max Scherzer) while in Washington.

At age 34, former All-Star Josh Harrison is also having a strong 2021 campaign. Like Gomes, he’s also clubbing lefties, to the tune of a .308/.407/.474 line. And the short-levered Harrison has once again been difficult to beat with fastballs this year. After his Swinging Strike rate against heaters had climbed for nearly a half decade, he’s halved it this year, returning to what it was in Harrison’s prime. Mike Rizzo & co. did a fine job plucking veteran bats out of the bargain bin to keep their window of contention alive until the very end.

Harrison pairs nicely with Tony Kemp in a left/right, mix-and-match 2B/3B/OF role on a roster that was very left-handed heavy entering the deadline. He’s poised to play the role a healthy Chad Pinder would theoretically play, albeit with a more stable feel for contact. And while the the value of these things is obviously subjective, Gomes has deep postseason experience, while Harrison is probably really hungry for some after spending most of his career in Pittsburgh.

The Nationals get back a trio of prospects in catcher Drew Millas and right-handed pitchers Richard Guasch and Seth Shuman. Millas is the only of the three who ranked in the main section of the A’s prospect list upon publication, and has been a personal favorite of mine since he was at Missouri State. He’s an athletic catch-and-throw guy with terrific lateral agility and hands. He also has a pretty looking swing and his athleticism is evident in the batter’s box, with his cut geared more for low-ball contact from both sides. There’s not likely to be impact power here, but Millas has a pretty good mix of patience and feel for contact, especially for a catcher. He’s a high-probability backup with some traits — the switch-hitting, the early-career peripherals, the visual evaluation of his athleticism and frame, both of which are rare for the position — that make me want to round up and indicate that there’s more upside here (hence his 40+ FV grade). He ranks 13th on the Nationals growing prospect list at the time I’m writing this, though that might change due to other deals trickling in. The FV is the important thing, though.

As far as Shuman and Guasch are concerned, neither will be added onto the list but both are fair prospects. Shuman, who is 23 and at High-A, is a pitchability righty up to 94, with command of four serviceable pitches. He’s carving up A-ball because of his competency more than stuff. He lacks a real knockout pitch but could be a fifth starter, and is high-probability upper level rotation depth if nothing else. I’ve seen Guasch up to 96 with an average slider in what is a pure relief look. Both are the sort of prospects who gets mentioned at the tail end of an organizational list right now, with FV ceilings in the 40 (Shuman, as a fifth starter) and 35+ (Guasch, as an up/down reliever) tier based on their current reports.

There are some big trades percolating around baseball today. Trea Turner and Max Scherzer were merely the opening salvo; the Cubs have gone into full everything-must-go mode, José Berríos got swapped for two top 100 prospects, and the Phillies are shelling out for multiple starters. It’s a time for big trades — unless you’re the St. Louis Cardinals, who mostly shuffled the deck chairs on Friday in a trade with the Minnesota Twins. Our analysis of the acquisition of Jon Lester is forthcoming, but that’s not all they did. You’re gonna want to be sitting down for this one, because it might put you to sleep, and that would be dangerous if you were standing:

JA Happ goes to Cards for Gant

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 30, 2021

J.A. Happ (pronounced “Jay”, just for value) is not what you’d call a great pitcher, at least this year. His 6.77 ERA could have told you that — but if you hate ERA for some weird reason, what about his 5.40 FIP, 5.28 xFIP, or 17.3% strikeout rate and 1.9 HR/9? He’d been interesting in previous years — lefty starters with control tend to be valuable — but as his velocity went, so did his effectiveness, leading to this year’s horror show.

That’s not to say there’s nothing redeemable about Happ; even in a greatly reduced state, he’s an innings eater, having completed seven innings four times this year in 19 starts. That’s useful for the Cardinals, because their bullpen is a castle made entirely of brutal, gut-wrenching walks. With so few arms to choose from, the top three relievers have been worked hard, and injuries have decimated their rotation; even after acquiring Happ, it prominently features Wade LeBlanc, with four reasonable starters on the shelf at the moment (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, likely gone-for-the-season Carlos Martínez, and definitely gone-for-the-season Dakota Hudson). Read the rest of this entry »

After addressing their offensive needs with their acquisition of Eduardo Escobar earlier this week, the Brewers turned their focus to their pitching staff. Their starting rotation has been the best in the majors but their bullpen has been merely good. They added some depth to their relief corps on Friday by trading for Daniel Norris, sending RHP Reese Olson to the Detroit Tigers in return.

Norris had worked out of the rotation for much of his career but recently made the transition to full-time relief work in 2020. Across 51 relief appearances over the last two seasons, he’s posted a solid 3.39 FIP that’s been somewhat hidden by an ugly 5.89 ERA this year. Like you would expect with any starter transitioning to shorter outings in relief, Norris’s fastball velocity has really benefited. He’s averaged 92.7 mph on his four-seam fastball during these last two campaigns, the highest velocity he’s seen on his heater since 2017. He’s also simplified his pitch mix, entirely cutting out his curveball and focusing on his slider and changeup as his two secondary options. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline looming, today the Blue Jays bolstered their rotation, trading two prospects — shortstop/outfielder Austin Martin and right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson — to the Twins for right-hander José Berríos. As recently as early this week, the Twins did not expect to trade Berríos, but they decided to listen on him and the market well-exceeded their expectations. With Minnesota acquiring a pair of Top 100 prospects in return, it looks more and more like the Dodgers pulled off an exceptional deal last night, paying a similar amount for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Ben Clemens analyzed what Berríos means for the Jays; here we will concern ourselves with Martin and Woods Richardson.

The fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft out of Vanderbilt, Martin was seen as one of, if not the best pure hitters in last year’s class as a proven performer at one of the top programs in the country with outstanding swing decisions, truckloads of contact, and flashes of average power. His future position was in the to-be-determined category, but with an athletic toolset, he was seen as simply ending up somewhere up the middle.

Unable to make his professional debut until 2021, the Blue Jays challenged Martin with an initial assignment to Double-A New Hampshire, and the results have been both good and confusing. On paper, his .281/.424/.383 line has Martin meeting that challenge with aplomb. But evaluators have left their looks this summer scratching their heads a bit. After striking out just twice in 69 plate appearances during Vanderbilt’s shortened 2020 season, Martin has racked up a 21.2% strikeout rate this year, while some feel his propensity for drawing walks (14.8%) also frequently puts him into bad counts he can’t fight his way out of. Data-minded evaluators also point to a loss of power, and while a dip would be expected during a transition from metal to wood bats, Martin’s exit velocities are down a whopping 8 mph from his college days. Read the rest of this entry »

If it feels like the Blue Jays have been on the cusp of breaking through for years, that’s because they have. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and crew have put together a fearsome offense (with some help from the friendly confines of Dunedin and Buffalo). Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray have provided some pitching, but not enough; only three teams have gotten fewer innings out of their starters, and the Jays’ bullpen has been no great shakes either.

To compete this year, Toronto needed another starter, and now it has one. Per Ken Rosenthal, the Jays have acquired José Berríos from the Twins in exchange for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, a move that will have implications for both teams for years to come.

As is customary when prospects of such lofty stature are involved, Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will cover the specifics of the two in a separate piece. In this one, you’re stuck with me, and we’ll try to assess how this trade affects the two squads without diving into the nitty-gritty of what Martin has been doing with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

The Jays have conflicting interests at this deadline. They’re 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot and had a 25.9% chance of reaching the playoffs before adding Berríos to the mix. That’s a great reason to go for it, but it also merits caution; the team is so stacked and so young that this might be the worst Toronto squad of the next three or four years, not the best. Trading for a bevy of rentals two years too early would hardly be a crippling blow, but with such a talented roster, building for the future and the present would beat doing only one or the other.
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The Mariners understandably upset their fan base on Wednesday when, while just one game out of the Wild Card race, they traded away Kendall Graveman, and to the Astros no less. While it’s still a debatable move, Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto has shown a bit more of his hand since; after trading for Tyler Anderson to stabilize the rotation on Wednesday night, he found a better reliever than Graveman in the form of Rays closer Diego Castillo, who was acquired for righty J.T. Chargois and minor league corner infielder Austin Shenton. For Seattle, mystery solved, at least kind of; for the Rays, on the other hand, it’s a curious decision.

In getting Castillo, the Mariners have upgraded their late-inning options for the stretch run. Armed with one of the more deadly two-pitch combinations in the game, he is throwing more strikes than ever and missing more bats than ever, and given that he’s just 27, there’s still upside beyond what we’ve seen. There’s nothing complicated about what Castillo does or the way he does it; he’s a classic let-it-eat bullpen ace who sits 96–98 mph with the heater and has a slider in the upper-80s. In an era obsessed with revolutions per minute, he is the rare anti-spin guy, with below-average RPMs on both offerings, but he has found a way to add some two-plane break to his breaking ball this year. He’s also using his slider more than ever in 2021, with nearly 70% usage. Compare that to just two years ago, when he went after hitters with a nearly 50/50 mix.

While Castillo has greatly reduced his walks, he still certainly has far more control than command. It’s the same approach against every hitter: he elevates his fastball and throws his slider to the one location he can consistently get to, working the lower outer edge to right-handed hitters and back-footing lefties. It’s the kind of thing you can succeed at with quality pitches, and there’s no reason to think that success won’t continue. The Mariners added an elite high-leverage reliever who should be able to rack up saves in the Emerald City for three more years (Castillo is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason), and they made their big league roster better, both right now and in the future.

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It’s been leading up to this all week. The endless rumors, speculation, and fake Twitter accounts paved the way for two earth-shattering transactions. I’m talking, of course, about the Red Sox sending Aldo Ramirez to the Nationals in exchange for Kyle Schwarber, and San Diego shipping Mason Thompson and Jordy Barley to Washington in exchange for Daniel Hudson.

I kid, but we can’t let the Dodgers hog the spotlight, can we? Besides, as far as trades go, these are as straightforward and sensible as they can get. Up first are the Red Sox, who will try to make the most out of two months with Kyle Schwarber. The 28-year-old slugger went on an absolute tear a month ago but has missed time since with a hamstring injury. That means the team will have to wait before it can use his services, but that’s a small sacrifice when considering the potential benefits.

Immediately, Schwarber provides the Red Sox with a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat. Our Depth Charts have him pegged at left field and first base – the former option establishes some stability in a scrambled outfield, while the latter offers a temporary respite from the clutches of Bobby Dalbec, whom Jay Jaffe highlighted as a replacement-level killer in his recent series.

In theory, the skewed dimensions of Fenway both aid and hinder Schwarber. Using our site’s Park Factors, we see that the park has consistently suppressed home runs from lefties while enabling doubles. But it won’t dramatically alter Schwarber’s value, and while he does strike out a fair amount, it’s not because he’s swinging at bad pitches. As Eno Sarris pointed out, Schwarber is one of the few hitters with elite barrel and chase rates. Here’s that visualized, with him as the point in red:

I also wonder if the Red Sox are willing to modify Schwarber’s approach. His swing rate in early counts (0-and-0, 0-and-1, 1-and-0) is below the league average; by contrast, the Red Sox have a penchant for attacking early – not against all pitches, but rather would-be strikes. It’s a method of selective aggression that’s powered the team thus far. Schwarber already doesn’t chase often, so maybe more swings at early strikes would boost his offensive output and prevent him from falling behind in the count.

Given the nature of Schwarber’s contract, headed to the Nationals is a single prospect: Aldo Ramirez, a right-handed pitcher ranked 14th on Eric Longenhagen’s preseason Red Sox Prospects List. Ramirez is currently on the IL with elbow tendinitis. Eric informed me that prior to his injury, Ramirez had been performing well after a velocity spike during the fall. Other details to note are an arm slot and hand position conducive to pitching up in the zone, a “fairly advanced arm-side changeup feel,” and a command grade that’s currently at 35 but that has been assigned a FV of 60. It’ll be crucial to monitor whether the gains in velocity are still present when Ramirez recovers. He slots in at eighth in the Nationals system.

Moving over to the West Coast, we have the Padres’ acquisition of Daniel Hudson. I know, it’s hardly a consolation after missing out on Scherzer – someone I follow on Twitter described the fallout as ordering a filet mignon and getting a salad instead – but Hudson has been quietly awesome. In terms of numbers, his 2.20 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and strikeout rate of 37.8% place him among this season’s very best relievers.

To say this is unexpected might be an understatement – at age 33, Hudson’s strikeout rate soared from 23.4% in 2019 to 30.4% in ’20. The secret involved adding a few inches of ride to his fastball, abandoning his sinker and changeup, and throwing more sliders. In short, he transformed himself into a modern reliever. But when it came to actual results, Hudson’s home run and walk rates spiraled out of control in 2020 and contributed to career-low marks. I do think most of that can be blamed on the variance within a 20-inning sample, but I also did notice a particular quirk. Here’s Hudson’s whiff rate on his slider when he fell behind in the count since 2015:

You can easily spot the great crash of 2020. For some inexplicable reason, batters became resistant to Hudson’s slider that season, forcing him to rely on his fastball. I’m not sure if this was a contributing factor, but it did inspire Hudson to revise his slider. Unlike previous iterations, the pitch is now released at an 180-degree axis (i.e. as vertically as possible). That’s led to a loss in vertical drop but also an uptick in velocity, which perhaps interacts better with his fastball. Though I’m a bit skeptical about Hudson’s suppressed walk rate, it seems like his resurgence is no fluke. Note: Hudson is currently on the COVID Injured List, so it will be at least a couple of days before he is activated.

In return, the Nationals will receive two mid-level prospects: Mason Thompson and Jordy Barley. A shortstop signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, Barley possesses loud tools but has fallen behind in development due to his on-field mishaps. He’s an interesting prospect, though it will take a while to gauge whether he ends up benefiting the Nationals.

Meanwhile, right-handed pitcher Mason Thompson is someone who’s been on my radar since his Padres debut. Of the 43 pitches he’s thrown so far at the major league level, 41 have been sinkers; the other two are a stray four-seam fastball and changeup. That’s because he can absolutely afford to. In addition to hovering around 96-99 mph, his monstrous sinker generates around 60 degrees of axis shift as it reaches home plate. But as Eric Longenhagen noted in his write-up of the Padres’ system, command is still an issue for Thompson. Whether he can harness the sinker in tandem with a secondary pitch will be key in deciding his future value. Thompson ranks 21st in his new system, while Barley checks in at 26.

Contenders benefit from a team willing to sell. It’s a simple outcome, but one that the uncertainty surrounding this year’s deadline threatened to distort. In the end, though, a blockbuster was released, and two additional buyers came out on top. The Red Sox snagged a power lefty bat who could mend a hole at first. The Padres brought in a veteran reliever with two electric pitches and postseason experience. On the selling end, the Nationals netted three prospects with intriguing upside, bolstering a farm system that ranked towards the bottom of most publications’ lists. Everyone should be satisfied here.