I will never not be fascinated by the fact that hitters actually produce negative value when swinging. In my most recent article outlining the struggles of Jarred Kelenic, I briefly discussed this idea. Even in a sea of hitters who are below-average when swinging, Kelenic stands out as being particularly bad when he takes a hack; he’s been worth roughly -6 runs per 100 swings so far this year. And as I noted, the hitters who do the best at limiting the damage on their swings tend to be baseball’s most productive hitters overall. From that research, I found an R-squared of 0.714 between a hitter’s run value when swinging and their seasonal wOBA.

That makes a ton of sense: Hitters who maximize their production on swings — that is, both limiting whiffs and making frequent loud contact — tend to be better hitters overall. But this also got me thinking about the reverse: How does taking pitches influence a hitter’s overall production? From the Kelenic research, I found only a moderate correlation between take value and seasonal wOBA, with an R of 0.422 and an R-squared of 0.178. That’s not to say that better “takers” aren’t better hitters; it just suggests that having extremely high-value takes doesn’t necessarily lend itself to having more success overall. For posterity’s sake, here’s the plot of 2021 hitters’ run value per 100 takes and their seasonal wOBAs. Players on both ends of the wOBA spectrum are highlighted just to demonstrate a few individual examples: Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has started, at the promised time!

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Development isn’t always a neat little line!

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Though 2022 seems like a good bet.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Sure, let me run this while I answer a few more questions.

Read the rest of this entry »

I wish I could come to you with news about the mass adoption of backup sliders from pitchers across the league. I also wish I could come to you with a shining example of even one player who has perfected the art of the effective mistake. There is no apparent analytical case that comes to mind; it’s largely just a fascination to me — the best hitters in the world swinging through the worst offering a pitcher could imagine throwing. Here’s an example:

Matt Wisler is the perfect guy to have here — someone who throws nothing but sliders making the biggest kind of slider mistake! And yet there are times when it just works. What I want to try to answer is what makes these mistake sliders click without diving into the rabbit hole of pitch sequencing. Are there particular characteristics of movement and velocity that make for better backup sliders?

First, we have to set guidelines on what a backup slider is. You know it when you see it, but it is more broadly defined as something that “hangs” when thrown to a batter of the same handedness. Sliders behave differently depending on whether they’re thrown inside or out, as shown by Eno Sarris on this site a few years back; those away gain almost half a foot of horizontal movement compared to ones thrown inside! Sliders need height to be considered mistakes, but the distinctions in horizontal movement are too vast for an outside-and-up slider to be as bad a mistake as one up but inside. For our purposes, let’s say that a backup slider is anything in the upper third of the strike zone, middle-to-in, in a same handedness matchup. Read the rest of this entry »

Eli Morgan has “a bugs-bunny changeup.” That’s how the 25-year-old rookie right-hander’s signature offering was described when it was suggested that I interview him for the Learning and Developing a Pitch series. Delivered at an average velocity of 75.1 mph, Morgan’s changeup is the slowest among pitchers who have worked at least 40 innings (not including Seattle’s Paul Sewald, who per StatCast has thrown just one changeup all season).

Cleveland’s eighth-round pick in the 2017 draft, Morgan has made 14 starts and has a 5.48 ERA and a 5.01 FIP to go with 68 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. He’s thrown his changeup — a pitch he described in detail this past Sunday — 22.4% of the time.

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Eli Morgan: “I started out mainly fastball/breaking ball, and then my senior year of high school I began developing my changeup. I’d thrown a splitter — that was my changeup for my first couple years of high school — but I figured that probably wasn’t great for my arm going forward. At the time, there was talk of Masahiro Tanaka having issues with his elbow because of the splitter, and that kind of turned me off of that pitch. I decided to go to a regular circle change.

“When I got to [Gonzaga University] they told me that if I wanted to pitch, let alone be a starter, I needed to have a good changeup. That was a big thing up there, so I started throwing it a lot more and got comfortable with it.

“Because I throw a four-seam fastball, I throw a four-seam changeup. That’s something one of my pitching coaches mentioned: ‘Make sure it comes out with the same seams as your fastball.’ That’s what I went with, and I had pretty good command of it right from the start. Over time, I began getting more movement on it, getting more fade. Read the rest of this entry »

I recently sourced scouting info and wrote about prospects (and rehabbing veterans) who contending American League teams have on the way during the season’s final stretch, players young and old who lurk beneath the big league surface and might yet make an impact on who hoists the Commissioner’s Trophy at the end of the season. Today, I examine the National League.

NL East
I have very little to pass along regarding the Braves. Their Triple-A pitchers on the 40-man (Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, Tanner Roark) have been up and down throughout the year and they haven’t looked appreciably different since they were last up. Chris Martin and Josh Tomlin went on the injured list very recently and haven’t had a chance to rehab yet. The same goes for Jasseel De La Cruz, who had several rough starts in August before hitting the IL. Yoan López, acquired from the Diamondbacks earlier in the year, has been sitting 95-98 with Triple-A Gwinnett, but his fastball’s lack of movement means it doesn’t miss many bats. His slider is still plus when located properly, though. He’s the lone 40-man member in Gwinnett’s bullpen, though Dylan Lee (throwing strikes, up to 96, lots of in-zone fastball whiffs) has out-pitched him, and Jesse Biddle and Víctor Arano both generate more whiffs than López does. They all might be ahead of him in the pecking order for big league time in case of injury, even if it means making a 40-man move.

The Phillies have a mix of rehabbers and prospects lurking in the minors, with the prospects presenting low-impact/emergency options right now. Young Francisco Morales (who has projected as a reliever for us at FG since signing) has struggled as a starter all year at Double-A Reading, walking 59 in 70 innings pitched. He doesn’t seem to be on the fast track, even in a bullpen role. Read the rest of this entry »

On paper, Glenn Otto and A.J. Alexy have a lot in common. For one thing, they both found their way into the Rangers system as key prospects in packages exchanged for blue-chip major leaguers – Alexy in 2017 as part of the deal that sent Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, and Otto in this year’s Joey Gallo trade. Moreover, they’re both righties who work exclusively from the stretch and feature a low-90s fastball. And at the end of last month, following a spat of positive COVID tests that depleted the Texas rotation, they added one more shared accomplishment, both making their big-league debuts within three days of one another.

Even their lines in their respective debuts look strikingly similar, with each pitcher throwing five innings of scoreless baseball. But drilling down just a bit further reveals the important differences between the two hurlers, and by extension, their distinct paths to success as major leaguers.

Let’s start with their mechanics. I mentioned above that both Otto and Alexy pitch exclusively from the stretch, having eliminated their windups during their time in the minors. But in Alexy’s case, that isn’t the only obvious change he’s made to his delivery since being drafted out of high school in 2016. As Eric Longenhagen has noted, he’s shortened his arm action, eliminating the violence it once featured.

Here’s a look at Alexy from March 2019:

And here’s one from this past Monday:

Comparing the two side-by-side, the changes to his arm action become unmistakeable. I’ve added freeze frames here to isolate the point at which his arm is at its very lowest and make it even more obvious:

Read the rest of this entry »

Louis Head has had a storybook season. Without a team during last year’s pandemic summer, the rookie right-hander was working a sales job, his dreams of reaching the big leagues seemingly in the review mirror. Nearly a decade after being taken by Cleveland in the 18th round of the 2012 draft, he thought his career was over. Then the Tampa Bay Rays came calling.

Head was signed off the scrap heap this past February, and on April 25, two days after celebrating his 31st birthday, he made his major league debut. The Katy, Texas native has gone on to appear in 20 games with the Rays since then — he’s also seen action in 24 games with Triple-A Durham — logging a 2.93 ERA and a 3.53 FIP over 27-and-two-thirds innings. His slider has played a big role in his Cinderella ascent. Developed since joining his new team, the pitch has helped fuel one of the better success stories of the 2021 season.

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David Laurila: You’re a 31-year-old rookie. How were you able to finally take that final step and reach the big leagues? Was pitching development part of it?

Louis Head: “I think it was mostly about there being an opportunity here. We had some guys get hurt early on in the season, and it opened up some doors for me. That didn’t really happen in the past with other organizations. I felt like I had thrown well in the past, especially for Cleveland, and I could have been a guy they brought up. But those opportunities never happened.

“Development-wise, when I did get here, working with the analytical team, and with [pitching coach] Kyle Snyder, we were really able to develop my slider into a major weapon. Before, it was just kind of a get-me-over pitch. Now it’s a legit put-away pitch, and that’s made a world of difference. Them having confidence in me has been a huge part of my success, as well.”

Laurila: Why were you able to turn the corner with your slider here, and not with Cleveland, the Dodgers, or the Mariners? Read the rest of this entry »

When the Braves signed Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies to phenomenally team-friendly contracts before the 2019 season, two distinct possibilities loomed. First, the team could bank the money they saved and put out a good team at a discounted price. Second, they could reinvest those savings and attempt to put together a great team. Which they chose would say a lot about how the team planned on operating long-term.

The question is no longer open. The Braves have overcome a season-ending injury to Acuña to surge to the top of the NL East, and while the Phillies and Mets continue to nip at their heals, they’re well on their way to a fourth straight division title. They’ve done so thanks to some new young contributors — Austin Riley and Ian Anderson have come into their own this year. They’ve made some savvy signings and trades — Charlie Morton has been their best pitcher this year, and Jorge Soler has been excellent since joining the team.

Now, the Braves are making moves to prolong their stay atop the division. In late August, they signed Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year extension. They followed that up by signing Morton to a one-year deal (both contracts have team options tacked on). Let’s take a look at both of those deals, as well as how they affect the team’s outlook for next year and beyond.

Signing d’Arnaud to an extension — two years and $16 million with a team option for a third year — was hardly an obvious move for the team. He missed the majority of the season after tearing a ligament in his thumb in May. He’s hit well since his return, but even so, his seasonal line works out to an 84 wRC+. Combine that with solid receiving, and the total package works out to a roughly average catcher.

What made the Braves so eager to lock d’Arnaud up? His replacements fell well short of that average catcher bar. On the year, Atlanta’s catcher position has produced -1.4 WAR, the worst mark in the majors. It’s not an individual problem; a huge array of catchers have combined to weigh the position down:

Relative to that mess, d’Arnaud is a huge improvement. That’s not to say that Contreras won’t figure it out, or that Vogt isn’t a capable backup. But for a team with an embarrassment of riches at most positions, giving away so much value at catcher doesn’t make sense. It gets worse: the list of free agent catchers this offseason is nasty, brutish, and short. Yan Gomes and Martín Maldonado are the headliners, and it gets worse from there. Miss signing your target, and you might be in for a long offseason. Read the rest of this entry »