In 2017, my friend Marty and I made a bet. A lot of hot young prospects were making their way to the show and Marty is a big Red Sox fan. He was convinced that Andrew Benintendi was the next big thing, while I was adamant that honor belonged to a rookie the Red Sox had traded to the White Sox who hadn’t really gotten quite as good of a look yet: Yoán Moncada. The terms of the bet were simple. I had Moncada, he had Benintendi, and the best player would be determined by whichever player put up the most WAR (FanGraphs WAR, of course) over the next three seasons. The loser owed the winner dinner at the restaurant of their choice. Benintendi’s 5.9 WAR from 2018-20 is nothing to sneeze out, but Moncada’s 9.2 takes the cake. Which reminds me, Marty still owes me dinner.

If Marty had asked me to bet on who would win the AL Central this year, I would have put my dinner money on the White Sox. Chicago’s American League team is running away with a weak division, but they aren’t doing it the way I would have predicted. The big story on the South Side of Chicago is the injuries they’ve weathered on their way to a 54-35 record. Hitting phenom Eloy Jiménez tore a pectoral muscle trying to rob a home run in spring training, and hasn’t seen a major league pitch in 2021, though he hit a home run in the first at-bat of his rehab assignment before moving to Triple-A on Tuesday. Luis Robert played all of 25 games before he tore a hip flexor. Contact stalwart Nick Madrigal had season-ending surgery after a severe hamstring tear a month ago. As the clock ticked towards the Midsummer Classic, catcher Yasmani Grandal (who was having quite a strange season at the plate) had surgery on a torn tendon in his knee. Fortunately, that injury is not expected to be season-ending. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ll have a special draft recap episode in the very near future, but today we return to “normality,” as I am joined by special guest host and Brooklyn resident, Jay Jaffe. We discuss All-Star weekend and preview the second half of the season by going through each division and talking about the stories ahead. Then we are joined by our special guest, a listener of the week in the form of Josh The Graffiti guy, who is currently getting his doctorate studying graffiti. We talk about how the heck he pulled that off and exactly what his work entails. From there, it’s your emails, a Hall of Fame update from Jay, and why the Netflix comedy series I Think You Should Leave makes me sad.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Izzy True.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s airport problems, discuss the All-Star Game (touching on mic’d up and profane players, unsightly uniforms, All-Stars being friendly on the field, and MLB embracing the game’s lack of stakes), lament that the zombie-runner rule may not be (un)dead after all, follow up on more players with high highlight-to-value ratios, reflect on Will Craig seeking solace in the KBO, celebrate David Fletcher’s 24-game hitting streak and unique offensive profile, examine some entertaining pettiness between Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve, and assess the state of the standings, focusing on teams that may make a late-season charge. Then they wrap up with a Stat Blast about the underperforming (but opponent-outscoring) Marlins and note some news about Roy Campanella.

Audio intro: The Byrds, "The Airport Song"
Audio outro: Beady Eye, "Back After the Break"

Link to mic’d up Ohtani and Soto
Link to mic’d up Tatis
Link to mic’d up Hendriks
Link to Ben on mic’d up players
Link to Rovell’s first Derby tweet
Link to Rovell’s second Derby tweet
Link to Manfred’s comments
Link to article about Craig
Link to Fletcher leaderboard
Link to Fletcher’s Baseball Savant page
Link to Fletcher hitting head-high pitch
Link to BP on the Yanks-Astros beef
Link to the Chronicle on the Yanks-Astros beef
Link to the Post on the Yanks-Astros beef
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FanGraphs BaseRuns standings
Link to FanGraphs team pitching Clutch scores
Link to B-Ref team pitching high-leverage splits
Link to Craig R. Wright on Campanella

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Matt Wisler has thrown his slider 89.2% of the time this year, the highest percentage of any pitcher in either league. He’s done so over 32-and-two-thirds innings, the last 12-and-a-third of them with the Tampa Bay Rays, who acquired the 28-year-old right-hander from the San Francisco Giants on June 11 in exchange for minor league southpaw Michael Plassmeyer. Since coming to his new club, Wisler has made a dozen appearances and allowed just one earned run.

Wisler told the story behind his signature pitch over the phone earlier this month.

———

Matt Wisler: “I’d say I learned [a slider] in high school. I’d always thrown a curveball growing up — from when I was 11 or 12 — and then around sophomore year I started throwing a slider. It was honestly more like a different variation of a curveball, though. It was just a little bit different spin.

“The slider I have now, I learned in Low-A way. My pitching coach was Willie Blair, and we were trying to get more separation between my curveball and my slider. We went through a bunch of different grips. Finally, the second time I tried his grip, it kind of clicked for me. That was in 2012. I’ve kept that one ever since, and have obviously started throwing it more and more over the last couple of years.

“My original slider was more like a slurve — it was probably high-70s, low-80s — and we were trying to find a pitch that I could get into the low- to mid-80s with a little bit different break. There are still times where it will get a little slurvy and be in the high-70s, and a little bigger and rounder. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got bourbon; let’s do this.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I think you have to shop Morton

12:03

Dan Szymborski: And I’ strongly consider trading Heredia/Almonte if you can get an interesting sorta prospect for either. They’re not young

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Neither should be playing full-time rest of season or Arcia for that matter

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if there’s Smyly interest, but I’d at least inquire

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball just wrapped up All-Star week, or better put, baseball just wrapped up Shohei Ohtani week. What more can be said? He hit six 500-foot home runs in the Home Run Derby on Monday night, then served as both the American League’s starting pitcher and leadoff hitter in the All-Star Game on Tuesday. On the mound, he threw an even 100 mph and earned the win after his one spotless inning of work.

All that put Ohtani front and center, as it should have. He is baseball’s home run leader, with 33. He’s slugged nearly .700, and among qualified hitters, his 180 wRC+ is beat only by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 189. He has also made 13 starts on the mound, pitching to a 3.49 ERA; his 30.7% strikeout rate ranks seventh in the AL among those with at least 50 innings. We are so lucky to have borne witness to a first half that has been uniquely and historically great.

Part of the reason Ohtani has been such a marvel this season is his sheer volume of play. When he first entered the majors in 2018, the Angels sat him on the days both before and after his pitching appearances. This season, though, things are different, as he appeared in 87 of the team’s 89 first-half games. What’s more, he has also taken at-bats in 10 of his 13 starts on the mound. The Angels said during spring training that they wanted to maximize Ohtani’s usage this season, and they certainly have. That’s just one of the many ways in which he has impressed; he’s a two-way player who’s playing just about every single day. Read the rest of this entry »

As we’ve passed both the literal midpoint of the season (1,215 games) and the philosophical one (the All-Star Game), it’s time to look back at the sample-size-fueled joy and sadness of the best and worst individual player projections for the first half. Projecting this season was particularly tricky for the obvious reason that the 2020 season was only 60 games and there was no minor league season at all. There’s not really much you can do to compensate for the lack of data; in the end, you’re likely to be less accurate no matter your approach. This isn’t as big a deal when it comes to the team projections, where there are enough players that you just hope the mistakes aren’t all in the same direction, but it can matter when you’re talking about a single player. (In hindsight, it makes me happy I never needed to project the 1995 season using replacement players, if that had actually happened.)

Let’s start with the hitters. Given the volatility of defensive measures, this is a comparison of the offensive numbers, not WAR as a whole. I’m setting 200 plate appearances as the minimum. Here are the position players ZiPS most underrated:

Read the rest of this entry »

A story recently emerged that captured the hearts of even the stoniest baseball fans. On June 19, a little girl named Abigail attended her first major league game in Cincinnati and was over the moon to get to see her hero, Joey Votto, in action. But as fate would have it, Votto was ejected in the first inning, leaving young Abigail devastated; a photo of her forlorn face, eyes brimming with tears, made the rounds on Twitter. Soon enough, though, she had a signed ball in her hands, and later that same week, she returned to the park and got to meet Votto in person. A photo of her beaming expression might best summarize the whole experience:

Today was AMAZING!!! ???? Thank you, from the bottom of our hearts, to Joey Votto & the @Reds for the wonderful tickets to today’s game & for taking the time to meet with Abigail. She is absolutely thrilled & couldn’t have had a better weekend! Thank you for making it so special! pic.twitter.com/n0JL8YAUIJ

— Kristin (@SuperBarry11) June 21, 2021

The entire story, from Abigail’s excitement to the perfectly-timed misfortune of Votto’s ejection to the entirety of baseball Twitter rallying around this one little girl, felt like the plot of a movie, with our hero, in this case, a fan ready to cheer for her favorite player.

Abigail’s story is not a movie, of course. It will become a fun memory to look back on later in her life and probably helped solidify her as a Reds fan. Not every fan can have the kind of direct experience she did; not every child can meet their hero. But what makes Abigail’s story special is that it’s centered on her and not Votto. He was a just a peripheral part of what made this tale unique, and that is what made it so touching and engaging for others to follow.

Read the rest of this entry »

Joey Gallo didn’t win in his long-anticipated Home Run Derby debut — he didn’t even make it out of the first round or hit a single 500-foot drive at Coors Field on Monday night — but he earned his trip to Denver’s All-Star festivities nonetheless. After an injury-marred 2019 and a dismal follow-up in the pandemic-shortened season, the 27-year-old slugger is putting together his best and most complete campaign.

Gallo’s second All-Star appearance was less eventful than his first. He replaced starter Aaron Judge in the bottom of the fifth inning of Tuesday night’s game, but didn’t get to bat until the eighth, when he drew a walk against Mark Melancon in his only plate appearance. In his All-Star debut two years ago, he had entered in the sixth inning, and swatted a solo homer off Will Smith in his lone plate appearance in the seventh. That run, which at the time extended the American League’s lead to 4-1, proved to be the difference-maker in the Junior Circuit’s 4-3 win.

In between those two appearances, Gallo’s had more downs than ups, but he’s worked hard to earn his way back. Having slugged 81 homers while batting a lopsided but respectable .208/.322/.516 (113 wRC+) in 2017-18, he was in the midst of a breakout campaign when the ’19 All-Star game rolled around, hitting an eye-opening .275/.417/.643 (162 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 61 first-half games. An oblique strain that sidelined him for over three weeks in June left him 19 plate appearances shy of qualifying for the batting title, but at that point, his slugging percentage and wRC+ trailed only Mike Trout (by three points and 20 points, respectively). Alas, Gallo played just 10 games in the second half before being diagnosed with a fractured hamate in his right hand. He underwent surgery, and while he expected to be out only about four weeks, continued pain while swinging prevented him from returning at all. Read the rest of this entry »

Chosen in the ninth round of the 2018 draft, Tarik Skubal had a meteoric rise in prospect pedigree, tearing through the minor leagues in just 145 innings. He allowed just one earned run in 22.1 innings in 2018, then compiled a 2.58 ERA in high A and a 2.13 ERA in Double-A, but what caught the eye of analysts and prospect hounds alike were the strikeout and walk rates. He punched out about 40% of the batters in 2018 versus a walk rate of about 5% and posted strikeout rates of 30.3% and 48.2% in high A and Double-A, respectively, against walk rates of 5.9% and 10.6% in ’19.

Those numbers earned Skubal a place on our 2019 Tigers list before the start of that season, with Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel noting that he “dominated in pro ball after signing by throwing about 80% fastballs. He’s a ground-up rebuild who had third-round stuff at his best in college.” After he continued to dominate in 2019, Skubal climbed the 2020 version of the list, placing fourth behind three excellent prospects in their own right.

Skubal missed the entirety of the July summer camp last year but showed enough at the alternate site to earn a call-up, making his major league debut on August 18. It didn’t go to plan, though: He struck out a healthy 27.9% of batters with an 8.2% walk rate but also allowed a 72.3% fly ball rate with a 20% HR/FB ratio. That led to an ugly 2.53 HR/9 and a 5.63 ERA over 32 innings.

Unsatisfied with his 2020, Skubal made the pilgrimage to Driveline Baseball over the offseason. There, he first tried to make improvements to his existing changeup, but nixed that in favor of working on a splitter after immediately feeling comfortable with the offering used by his highly-touted teammate, Casey Mize.

Despite the new offspeed pitch, Skubal surrendered a 6.14 ERA in April despite allowing a miniscule .242 BABIP. His walk rate increased from 2020, and he was allowing even more contact in the air. And the splitter was not doing him any favors, with a pedestrian 10.2% SwStr% (the average for a left-handed pitcher’s splitter is 24.5%). He also had no control over the pitch, posting a 33.9% zone rate. Those two factors led to a .539 wOBA allowed on it.

About midway through the month, manager A.J. Hinch mentioned in a postgame press conference that Skubal would throw more breaking pitches going forward at the expense of his new splitter. That wasn’t all; he made a substantial change in terms of fastball usage after his start on the last day of April.

Read the rest of this entry »