One day after adding Kendall Graveman, one of this season’s best relievers, in a somewhat strange trade, the Astros picked up another bullpen arm on Wednesday, acquiring Yimi García from the Marlins. In exchange for García, the Marlins received a right-handed reliever of their own, Austin Pruitt, who was designated for assignment following Houston’s trade with Seattle, as well as minor league outfielder Bryan De La Cruz.

From a logistical standpoint, the deal is rather straightforward: The Marlins are not in contention and have a solidly performing reliever who is a free agent at the end of the season. The Astros, meanwhile, have dealt with a middling bullpen so far, one that certainly warrants additions to gear up for a playoff run. Through games on Tuesday, the Astros’ relief group ranked 19th in WAR, at 1.3, and 20th in WPA, at -1.24. There’s nothing wrong with adding a couple of extra arms for the home stretch, and that’s exactly what they did in acquiring Graveman and García.

Miami picked up García on a one-year, $1.1 million contract after was non-tendered by the Dodgers at the end of 2019. After a strong 2020 campaign — he only pitched 15 innings, but allowed just a single run, striking out 19 of the 60 batters he faced (31.7% strikeout rate), while walking just five (8.3% walk rate) — the Marlins decided to tender him a contract for this year. He is earning $1.9 million in 2021, and though the results have not been as sterling as they were during the COVID-shortened season — he’s pitched to a 3.47 ERA, a 23.2% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate in 36.1 innings — García has been a dependable reliever, often pitching the ninth. He’ll be bumped to setup duty with the Astros, who now have a pretty strong group of arms to handle the late innings:

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The Reds have continued to overhaul their bullpen during the final week before the deadline, acquiring right-hander Mychal Givens, who has undergone a bit of a transformation himself this year, from the Rockies in return for minor league right-handers Case Williams and Noah Davis. Cincinnati will be responsible for roughly $1.5 million of Givens’ remaining salary in his final year of arbitration before he reaches free agency this offseason.

Givens is a player more valued by the industry than fans; consistent relievers, even if they are just consistently solid, are a rare commodity. And Givens is just that, with the weird 2020 season as his only campaign with a negative WAR, and just -0.1 at that. He’s not a high-leverage guy, but he is at least dependable.

His 2.73 ERA this year isn’t supported by most metrics that consistently put him in the 4-plus range, but Givens has a consistent track record of missing bats with both his 92–96-mph fastball and plus changeup, both of which come from a funky, extra-low arm angle. His changeup has always been his best pitch, and over the last three years, he’s gone from using it around 10% of the time to nearly 20% in 2020 to a whopping 40% this season. It makes sense based on how well the pitch performs; you could easily make an argument that Givens should go with a Trevor Hoffman-esque approach of leaning primarily on his fastball/changeup combination and greatly reduce his slider usage, as his fringy breaker gets consistently hit hard. Read the rest of this entry »

In last week’s Replacement Level Killers series, I highlighted the A’s subpar production both at shortstop and right field, noting that while the Rockies’ Trevor Story made particular sense for Oakland in light of how set most other contenders are at shortstop, the team was instead prioritizing adding a bigger outfield bat. On Wednesday they did just that, albeit at a significant cost, acquiring Marlins outfielder Starling Marte and cash in exchange for promising but underperforming lefty Jesús Luzardo.

For the A’s — who entered Wednesday at 57-46, six games back in the AL West but two games ahead in the race for the second AL Wild Card spot — this is a bold, win-now move whose full ramifications might not be felt for years. The 32-year-old Marte, who has now been traded three times in the past 18 months including near consecutive deadlines, is in the final option year of a six-year extension that he signed with the Pirates in March 2014, so he’s just a two-month rental. The 23-year-old Luzardo is a former third-round pick who entered the 2020 season as the number six prospect on Eric Longenhagen’s list, but after a solid rookie season, he’s struggled so much that he was demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas long enough to delay his free agency; he has five full seasons of club control remaining. The Marlins reportedly sent along $4.5 million to cover the entirety of Marte’s remaining salary in order to add Luzardo to their stable of young arms.

On the positive side of the ledger for Oakland, Marte is in the midst of one of his best seasons with the bat, hitting .305/.405/.451 with seven homers and 22 steals en route to 3.3 WAR. Driven by newfound plate discipline, he’s walked in 11.6% of his plate appearances, more than double his career rate; his on-base percentage and 140 wRC+ both represent career highs. He’s swinging at a career-low 31.9% of pitches outside the zone, down over seven percentage points from last year, and 4.6 points below his career mark. His 10.3% swinging strike rate is a career low. Here’s a quick look at his Statcast swing/take breakdown:

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On Wednesday night, the New York Yankees pulled off a blockbuster trade, grabbing outfielder Joey Gallo from the Texas Rangers in a deal that will also see the Yankees pick up lefty reliever Joely Rodríguez once it is made official. Heading to Texas are pitcher Glenn Otto and infielders Ezequiel Duran, Trevor Hauver, and Josh Smith. In his seventh season in Texas, Gallo has already set a personal best in WAR at 3.4, thanks to a .223/.379/.490, 25 home run effort coupled with continued Gold Glove-caliber defense in right field.

We’re focusing on the major league part of the trade here; for more information on the players moving to Texas, fellow FanGraphiér Kevin Goldstein has published his analysis.

To my eyes, Gallo’s departure brings to an end what has been to this point the most successful epoch in Texas Rangers history. Gallo wasn’t a part of the teams that twice reached the World Series (the first such appearances in franchise history) or won 90 games for four consecutive seasons, but he was a leading part of the vanguard that was supposed to succeed Texas’ core of veteran talent. Many in history have seized a throne, but to build a dynasty, you need to pass it on to the next generation. If the Rangers could transition smoothly from the Adrian Beltre/Josh Hamilton/Michael Young/Ian Kinsler era to one spearheaded by some of the gaggle of talent that included Gallo, Rougned Odor, Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Craig Gentry, Michael Choice, Nomar Mazara, and Luis Sardiñas (I could keep going), Texas’ legacy would be complete, potentially allowing them to grab a championship in the process.

But it wasn’t meant to be. The Rangers flopped in 2014 thanks to injury, and most of the above-mentioned prospects were either traded to fill short-term needs or failed to develop into the players Texas hoped they would. Brinson was sent to Milwaukee for a year and a half of Jonathan Lucroy. Alfaro, Nick Williams, and others went to Philly for Cole Hamels. Choice was sold to the Indians; Sardiñas helped bring Yovani Gallardo over from the Brewers. Odor and Mazara developed enough to make the majors, only to regress and fade from the team’s plans. But Gallo stayed and developed, and while he may not have become an MVP candidate, he was approaching the Rangers’ top 20 all-time in position player WAR and likely would have pulled up just behind Mike Hargrove by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 933

In anticipation of the trade deadline, FanGraphs Audio arrives early this week, featuring some transaction predictions as well as a conversation with a former player looking to help make things better for the next generation.

• Dan Szymborski begins the show by welcoming FanGraphs contributors Sara Sanchez and Justin Choi to consider what the next few days in the game may look like. Which Chicago Cubs are on the move and who could be offered an extension? Is Max Scherzer headed to the west coast? And could the Royals really sell? The trio also discuss Germán Márquez and the Rockies, who Justin recently wrote about, as well as Sara’s look at the potential playoff impact of AL players who could soon return from injury. Finally, Dan divulges that he is particularly invested in Eric Hosmer’s fate. [2:27]
• After that, David Laurila welcomes Jonathan Perrin, former minor leaguer and contributor to FanGraphs, to the program. Jonathan shares what it was like to be traded, how dominant Corbin Burnes looked in the minors, and how prevalent sticky substance use was in the minors. Now a financial advisor, Jonathan works with More Than Baseball to help educate today’s minor leaguers and advocate for better conditions. He tells David what it was like for him and his teammates, and what needs to change. [28:17]

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the one-for-one A’s-Marlins swap involving Starling Marte and Jesús Luzardo, Marte’s underrated career, and Miami’s enviable pitching stockpile, then discuss the circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Max Scherzer. After that (35:21), they talk to FiveThirtyEight senior writer Neil Paine about the factors that affect whether teams add or subtract at the trade deadline, Neil’s “Doyle Number” metric for assessing trade-season incentives, how this year’s unusual playoff picture has created unusual deadline conditions, and specific teams that should or shouldn’t be motivated to make moves.

Audio intro: Guided By Voices, "Bellicose Starling"
Audio interstitial: Modest Mouse, "Bankrupt on Selling"
Audio outro: Arthur Brown, "Come and Buy"

Link to Marte WAR comparison
Link to Zach Kram on trading top prospects
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the Scherzer talks
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Nationals
Link to story on Scherzer’s contract
Link to “Doyle Number” articles
Link to Jayson Stark on execs at the deadline
Link to 2021 “Doyle Number” data
Link to Rob Arthur on the playoff picture
Link to Neil’s “Hall of Good” series
Link to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast history
Link to Neil’s research on true talent
Link to Hot Takedown podcast

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With the help of an endearing smile and wipeout slider, Sergio Romo has become a favorite of many a fanbase throughout his long and successful career. Currently with the Oakland A’s, Romo is in his 14th season. At age 38, you would expect any pitcher to be a shell of their former self, yet Romo continues to get hitters out in mostly the same way he always has: sliders, sliders and more sliders. He even has a new wrinkle that might be making his slider even better.

Of course, this season hasn’t gone exactly to plan. Romo got off to quite a rough start; through April he had a 9.35 ERA and 5.70 FIP. He wasn’t getting strikeouts at his usual level (13.3% K-rate) and his dominant slider was uncharacteristically hittable (.370 wOBA). Given his age and the way his 2020 ended (he had a 5.59 FIP in September), you had to wonder whether Romo’s time in the big leagues was drawing to a close. Come May however, he had righted the ship in a big way and since then he’s been the A’s most dominant reliever, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.83 FIP. Most importantly for fans of his slider, the pitch is back to doing this:

That location off the plate is where Romo likes to live with his slider but he wasn’t able to execute there when he was struggling in April. Take a look at his slider heat maps to righties:

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Tuesday night, the Mariners continued what had already been a busy day, following up the Kendall Graveman trade by acquiring pitcher Tyler Anderson from the Pittsburgh Pirates for catcher Carter Bins and pitcher Joaquin Tejada. Anderson’s had a solid, but unspectacular, season as Pittsburgh’s ace-by-process-of-elimination, putting up a 4.35 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 103 1/3 innings over 18 starts, good for 1.3 WAR.

Anderson’s unlikely to be the best pitcher acquired this week, but he ought to be a solid back-of-rotation pickup by the Mariners, who woke up Wednesday morning just a game behind Oakland for the second Wild Card spot. Anderson was originally set to become the number-three starter for the Phillies instead, but once that trade fell apart, the Mariners swooped in to close a deal themselves.

Given Seattle’s present proximity to the playoffs, it makes sense to shore up one of the team’s weaker areas, especially when it doesn’t involve giving up significant pieces of the future. Two of the rotation’s expected key contributors, Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield, have struggled in 2021, and with Sheffield and Justin Dunn currently out with injuries, there’s less in the larder than the M’s would like. There are better pitchers available; bringing in Max Scherzer would be way more fun than incrementally shoring up the starters. But while the M’s aren’t trying to tank, I think the Graveman-Abraham Toro trade — one the team’s players are quite unhappy with — is a strong indication that the team isn’t willing to throw all their chips into the pot to chase this playoff spot. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is upon us, but as I was thinking about the deals that could get done between now and Friday, I kept looking at the Baseball Prospectus Injury Ledger, since quite a few contenders have some very good players waiting in the wings. So today I wanted to take a look at the most impactful players who are currently on, or just off, the injured list for AL contenders as the trade deadline looms; I’ll follow it up with a look at NL contenders later this week.

There are players on these lists who could make or break their teams’ ability to make it to the postseason, and there are players who may not make it off the IL in time to help, which leads me to some important caveats. First, injuries are not all created equal, and players have setbacks all the time. These are projections that can and will shift.

Second, I don’t have a crystal ball; I used our playoff projections and only included teams that had at least a 30% chance of making the playoffs. That means the Blue Jays, who were in the first draft of this piece, ultimately just missed; our odds currently have them at 27.5% chance to make the playoffs. For any Blue Jays fans who are annoyed by this, I get it. That said, they were both borderline in terms of playoff odds and in terms of the most impactful players returning; only Danny Jansen and Alek Manoah would have pinged on this list.

Finally, having a 30% shot at the playoffs doesn’t mean you have players sitting on the IL who can push you over the top. Chad Pinder isn’t going to be the hero of Oakland’s season, which is no shade to either. But if the A’s are going to compete in the second half, they probably need to focus on the trade market, like they did Monday night in adding Andrew Chafin to their bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »