The Mets have been no strangers to injury this year. As Jay Jaffe detailed yesterday, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil aggravated injuries on the same play Sunday afternoon. When Kevin Pillar was hit in the face by a pitch on Monday night, the situation worsened. In an attempt to keep their roster afloat, the Mets acquired Cameron Maybin from the Cubs for cash considerations, as Bob Nightengale first reported.

Maybin will be reporting to Triple-A, but that state of affairs probably won’t last long. The Mets started Khalil Lee and Johneshwy Fargas in the outfield last night, which brought their combined career major league start total up from one (Fargas started Monday night) to three. Dominic Smith anchored the unit, as it were, but Fargas and Lee have combined for 72 plate appearances above Double-A. It’s clearly not a working solution for the injury-ravaged club.

Maybin is an obvious short-term upgrade, but not so long ago, he looked like he might be more than an injury fill-in. In 2019, he played an abbreviated season with the Yankees and unlocked heretofore unseen power; his 11 home runs were a career high despite only 269 plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar turning to late May, it feels strange to say that the industry is still a long way from making 2021 draft selections, but the new July start date isn’t the only unique thing about this year’s draft. The ongoing global pandemic and the larger player pool created by last year’s draft being reduced by nearly 90% have created additional challenges in terms of preparation for July 11. With just under two months to go before teams are on the clock, I got it touch with a number of key decision makers around baseball to get a better sense of what’s going on behind the scenes.

Dealing With the Information Deficit

The pandemic has created a variety of evaluation challenges, but few have had a greater impact than the lack of a 2020 Cape Cod League and the highly abbreviated and lightly attended high school summer showcase season. These lost opportunities to see potential draftees play against the best of their peers have left teams without one of their loudest data points as they begin to print out magnets and line up their boards. “With college hitters, we’re no more certain than we are with the high school guys right now,” said one National League scouting executive. “We just don’t have the big data advantage for college players that we used to.” One American League executive agreed, but not to the same extent. “We are poised for more uncertainly and variability due to the smaller track records, but it’s not as uncertain as I expected it to be.”

Another AL decision maker said that last year’s limitations in terms of scouting have provided an unexpected benefit in terms of dealing with this year’s challenges. “We learned in last year’s draft that there is still a lot of information out there and ways to evaluate it that we hadn’t taken advantage of in the past,” he said. “We were forced in 2020 to be open to different ways and now it’s become a new way of doing things.”

One of the most impactful innovations over the last decade has been that of the draft model. Nearly every team utilizes some kind of projection and/or scoring model that takes in historical performance and other, more advanced data sources and spits out some measure of draft value, but one American League evaluator worried that the lack of recent information will result in a garbage in/garbage out scenario. “We have guys who had a rough three weeks in 2020 but are playing well now,” he said, lamenting the incredibly small samples produced by the pandemic. “I think a lot of models are just going to have to be thrown out the window this year.”

More Players, More Problems

There were 1,217 players selected in the 2019 draft. In 2020, the number was reduced to 160. That leaves over 1,000 potential draftees who returned to school, transferred to new schools or entered the college ranks with the plan of impressing scouts for next year. That sudden glut of players was expected to complicate matters greatly, but late into the 2021 scouting season, teams have found the suddenly larger player pool isn’t impacting their processes as much as they initially anticipated. “There’s a handful of guys who had to come back that are going go in the first two days,” said one National League exec. “But I don’t think it’s that many of them; we’re certainly not going to see some flood of 22-year-olds,” he concluded, noting that age plays a massive role, as teams are weighing date of birth more heavily than ever. “Once you’re 22, the bloom is off the rose,” another executive added. One American League executive agreed that the large player pool will have little effect early, but should begin to play into later selections. “It doesn’t feel like twice the number of players, for whatever reason,” he concluded. “I do think that it’s going to become a factor from rounds six through 20, and I think that teams are still figuring out how to draft when it’s down to 20 rounds.”

Early Disappointment in the New Draft League And Combine

Another twist to this year’s draft has been the establishment of the new MLB-organized Draft League, which was cobbled together from six Northeast teams that lost their minor league affiliation, as well as a medical and performance combine in late June. These were generally seen as positive developments when initially announced, but the list of players participating has left much to be desired for teams looking for more information.

Some are taking more of a wait-and-see approach to an event that is just getting going and is dealing with the same real-world challenges everyone has been grappling with over the last year and a half. “I would expect it to take some time with people easing into it,” said one American League executive. “Let’s get past the pandemic before we start judging.” Another AL decision-maker agreed. “I think the intention is good and it’s going to take some time to make it normal for people,” he explained. “It’s all new and it’s going to take some time. It’s not a bust as much as it’s a work in progress.”

Still, some are disappointed by the early returns. “There are names going into that Draft League and they aren’t even Day Three options,” said one exacerbated National League executive. “You’ve got guys that are barely playing for their college team this spring but they are going to play there. Going would be a waste of time for us.”

“I’ve just kind of blocked it out,” said a senior American League scout. “I’m just going to the Cape.”

Multiple insiders brought up the CBA in terms of the combine, saying that how everything unfolds in this year’s negotiations will help define the future efficacy of the event. Others argue that as with other sports, many top prospects will continue to avoid something that can only create negative value for them. “If you are an agent with a brain, why would you send your player there?” Asked one National League executive. “All you can do is lose money.”

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Dodgers signing Albert Pujols and what the rest of his season could look like, Kevin Pillar’s broken nose and the ongoing HBP epidemic, Shohei Ohtani’s latest heroics (and modeling video) and whether he can become a face of baseball and a crossover star, MLB’s rising injury rate, Huascar Ynoa’s self-inflicted fracture (and whether teams should invest in dugout/tunnel padding), Yermín Mercedes hitting a homer off of Willians Astudillo and igniting a tired unwritten rules debate, the Twins as potential sellers, Yasmani Grandal’s wild slash line, Nick Castellanos getting revenge on Rob Manfred, and Kyle Schwarber enjoying a mid-game snack, plus a flopping vs. framing follow-up and postscripts about Mike Trout’s injury and Tony La Russa.

Audio intro: Jimi Hendrix, "Crosstown Traffic"
Audio outro: Minor Threat, "In My Eyes"

Link to Jay Jaffe on the Pujols signing
Link to Jay on the Mets’ many injuries
Link to combined WAR leaderboard
Link to MLB.com on Ohtani’s homers
Link to video of Ohtani’s oppo homer
Link to video of Ohtani’s pulled homer
Link to Ohtani’s Hugo Boss video
Link to Ohtani’s Hugo Boss page
Link to tweet about the Angels
Link to video of Mercedes homer
Link to slowest pitches hit for homers
Link to video of Andrus obstruction play
Link to postgame Castellanos interview
Link to Bryant/Schwarber Twix video
Link to video of Trout injury
Link to story about Trout injury
Link to The Onion on Ohtani
Link to Ben on Tatis and unwritten rules
Link to Sox Machine on La Russa
Link to The Athletic on La Russa

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These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Demarcus Evans, RHP, Texas Rangers
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Round Rock Age: 24 Org Rank: TBD  FV: 40+
Line: 2 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 5 K
Notes
Evans lives almost entirely off his fastball’s carry and angle, which punishes hitters at the top of the zone. I saw him sit 94–96 mph during the spring. He can also dump in an inconsistent 12-to-6 curveball, but his feel for burying it is still poor, and it hangs in the zone too often. In an attempt to find a more impactful second pitch, Evans has added a cutter. The outing I saw during the spring was his second or third time using it, and it was understandably of mixed quality. We’re still talking about a premium fastball here, though — one that plays in a similar fashion to James Karinchak‘s and Nick Anderson’s fastballs. But there’s just no second plus offering to pair with it. I think it’s more likely Evans ends up in a middle relief role early on, but he’s a high-leverage lock if a secondary pitch ever materializes.

Read the rest of this entry »

At a time when they’re already without ace Jacob deGrom and two of their top hitters, and still trying to dig out of a team-wide early-season slump that led to the dismissal of their hitting coaches, the Mets lost two more regulars to the Injured List on Sunday. Facing the Rays in St. Petersburg, both Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil left after suffering hamstring injuries in the first inning, the kind of calamity that seems as though it could befall only the Mets. The team received no respite, because in Monday’s game, starting pitcher Taijuan Walker departed after three innings due to tightness in his left side, and then Kevin Pillar was hit in the face by a fastball, suffering a bloodied and broken nose and perhaps more. An Injured List that’s already at an even dozen threatens to continue to grow.

McNeil, who had previously departed last Tuesday’s game against the Orioles due to what was termed “body cramps” after trying to stretch a single into a double, legged out an infield single to lead off Sunday’s game, and was erased on an inning-ending double play. As he was the designated hitter, his spot didn’t come up again until the third inning, at which time he was pinch-hit for by Patrick Mazeika. He departed with what the team initially described as “left hamstring tightness.”

That double play ball came off the bat of Conforto, who was visibly limping and grabbing his right hamstring by the time he crossed first base. You can see that in the video, as well as McNeil getting no further than halfway to second by the time Brandon Lowe’s throw reached Ji-Man Choi:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox caught us all by surprise by jumping out to an incredible start en route to an early-season lead atop the AL East. As Tony Wolfe wrote, the strong performance was largely thanks to consistent run-scoring and a dominant bullpen. Fast-forward to mid-May, and Boston is still there, first in the division and continuing to climb up various weekly Power Rankings (including our own). As impressive as the Red Sox have been at the plate, though, the rotation seems to have been overshadowed. I get it; there’s not a lot of name brand recognition. Their two best starters from 2019, Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez, pitched a grand total of 0 innings in 2020. But after taking three of four from the Angels over the weekend, the Red Sox lead the American League in FIP (3.29) among starting pitchers.

Leading the charge is Nathan Eovaldi. His most recent start extended his streak without giving up a homer to 50 innings; he is the only qualified starting pitcher who has yet to do so. That helps make up for a modest 4.50 ERA and strikeout-per-nine rate of 8.46; his FIP is 2.15. Since he’s been in Boston, Eovaldi has struggled with home runs, allowing an average of 1.86 per nine over the past two seasons. That makes sense, as he’s always allowed a lot of balls to be put in play with a penchant for giving up the occasional dinger. But so far this season, the expected value in terms of xwOBA on those balls suggests that Eovaldi is eliciting softer contact, which is supported by his peripherals.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cleveland develops pitchers as well as any team in baseball, and that’s good news for Tanner Burns. The second of the club’s two first round picks last summer, Burns has an Auburn University pedigree and a high ceiling. He also has some question marks, as evidenced by Eric Longenhagen — who acknowledged that he’s “a little lighter on Burns than the industry consensus” — having ranked the 22-year-old right-hander conservatively at No. 20 on the team’s 2021 Top Prospects list. Baseball America is somewhat more bullish on Burns, slotting him at No. 15 on their own list.

The Decatur, Alabama native has pitched solidly in his first two appearances of the season. In a pair of starts for the High-A Lake County Captains, Burns has allowed four hits and two runs, with one walk and 13 strikeouts, his fastball sitting 94-95 and topping out at 96. He discussed his approach to pitching, and the influences of Tim Hudson and Casey Mize, following his initial outing.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with an icebreaker I’ve used several times in the past: Do you consider pitching to be more of an art, or more of a science?

Tanner Burns: “I feel it’s more of an art. I try to keep it plain and simple, like straight vanilla. With my release points, I think ‘off my right ear’ to go inside on a righty, ‘off my nose’ for down the middle,’ and ‘off my left ear’ for away to a righty.’ So I kind of take it as an art, delivering my pitches, letting it come off my hand.” Read the rest of this entry »

At some point in your baseball fandom, you’ll end up thinking about Schrödinger’s Baseball Player. The question posed by it is simple: When does a struggling hitter or pitcher stop existing as a superposition of states – either plain unlucky or genuinely worrisome – and become one or the other?

Consider the case of Luis Castillo. Like most, I initially ignored his first few bad starts. But now, about a quarter of the way into the season, the righty’s 7.71 ERA is the worst amongst all qualified starters. Though his peripherals are much better, including a relatively respectable 4.79 FIP, you have to imagine that something is off. Maybe we should open the box and find out what.

There are a couple of things to consider regarding Castillo, but let’s focus on his changeup. Improved command of it led to a breakout season in 2019, which he followed up with an excellent 2020. A pitch with incredible movement and a penchant for missing bats, it’s the foundation of his entire repertoire. In fact, even this season, hitters have only mustered a .254 xwOBA against it, which is obviously great. So what’s the hold up? Well:

Read the rest of this entry »

What’s the most important characteristic of a slider? Let me show you a table:

There are two things that might need explaining in here. The attack zones are Baseball Savant’s way of cutting the strike zone up into granular pieces, and I think they’re neat. They look like so:

Run values are from the batter’s perspective, so that -785 runs in the shadow zone means that batters have been 785 runs below average — what they’ve done on all pitches across the whole year — when they faced sliders in the shadow zone. In other words, sliders on the corners of the plate have been excellent — not really a shock.

What’s the most important characteristic of a slider, then? Well, allow me to show you a different table:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Angels made a minor move to bolster their relief corps over the weekend, acquiring veteran reliever Hunter Strickland from the Rays. Strickland has been effective over the first six weeks of the season, with a 1.62 ERA and a 2.83 FIP in 16 innings for Tampa Bay. In return for his services, Los Angeles will give up either cash considerations or a player to be named later.

The Rays love reclamation projects, and Strickland was one of their latest, signing a minor-league deal with the team just before the start of spring training. It wasn’t Strickland’s first time. Once a rotation prospect with the Pirates — he was a Red Sox draftee picked up in the Adam LaRoche trade — he missed the 2011 season due to rotator cuff surgery and was waived by Pittsburgh after a disappointing 2012 season. The Giants moved him to the bullpen, and the big righty with big fastball looked like a future closer candidate. He also came equipped with a big temper, resulting in such incidents and playing the cavalry general for a bullpen charge into the Yasiel Puig–Madison Bumgarner incident, yelling at Salvador Perez after an Omar Infante homer in the 2014 World Series, and intentionally hitting Bryce Harper in 2017.

When someone says there's free food in the breakroom pic.twitter.com/IiPyD1ZbXJ

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 20, 2016

That hot-headedness led to a broken hand that caused him to miss two months in 2018, the unsurprising result of punching a door after blowing a save, and the Giants non-tendered Strickland after that season.

Read the rest of this entry »