Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Joe Musgrove‘s no-hitter and the significance of Musgrove snapping the Padres’ no-no-no streak, Tim Locastro breaking Tim Raines’s record for the most consecutive successful steal attempts to start a career, Ronald Acuña Jr. beating out a routine grounder and MLB’s “FieldVision” depiction of the play, the controversial call on (and replay review of) an Alec Bohm slide that ended the Philly-Atlanta Sunday Night Baseball game, Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama’s baseball heroes, and the two-way, all-around greatness of Negro Leagues great and five-time Hall of Famer Martín Dihigo. Then (47:56) Ben talks to Dihigo’s youngest son and biographer, Gilberto Dihigo, along with University of Illinois history professor (and Negro Leagues and U.S. Latino history scholar) Adrian Burgos Jr., about Dihigo’s legendary life and career, how he achieved two-way greatness, and whether the sport will ever see his likes again.

Audio intro: Son Volt, "Left a Slide"
Audio interstitial: The Baseball Project, "Phenom"
Audio outro: The Felice Brothers, "Hometown Hero"

Link to BP on Musgrove and Bohm
Link to Ben on the once-anonymous Padres
Link to Devan on Locastro
Link to story on Locastro and Raines
Link to Acuña grounder video
Link to Acuña FieldVision video
Link to Baseball Savant sprint speed leaderboard
Link to Bohm slide video
Link to Atlanta’s reaction to the Bohm call
Link to Dihigo’s Seamheads batter page
Link to Dihigo’s Seamheads pitcher page
Link to Pages from Baseball’s Past on Dihigo
Link to The Undefeated on Dihigo
Link to THT on Dihigo
Link to THT on two-way Negro Leagues greats
Link to Newsday on Dihigo
Link to MLB.com on Dihigo
Link to Dihigo’s SABR bio
Link to Gilberto’s Zoom background
Link to Gilberto’s YouTube channel
Link to YouTube documentary on Dihigo
Link to recording of “Elegía a Martín Dihigo”
Link to transcript of “Elegía a Martín Dihigo”
Link to Gilberto’s biography of his father
Link to Gilberto’s book Estrellas Por Siempre
Link to Adrian’s book Playing America’s Game
Link to Adrian’s book Cuban Star

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

As part of my exhausting shtick, I like to respond “April!” to questions in my chats involving player performances in the season’s early going. This is effective shorthand when someone wants to know if, say, George Springer is a bust because he’s put up a .480 OPS in his first two weeks in the majors. It’s also dead wrong. April stats, in their proper context, are meaningful.

“But Dan, a few weeks of baseball is a tiny sample!” That’s correct, but you have to take into consideration the underlying reasons projections can prove to be inaccurate. It’s not just that things change, though they do — pitcher X learns a sweet knuckle-curve or batter Y realizes that not hitting everything into the ground might be good — it’s that it’s challenging to gauge where players stand in the first place. Players’ stats themselves aren’t even perfect at this. Tim Anderson hit .322 in 2020, but that doesn’t actually mean his mean batting average projection should have been .322. We don’t actually know if a theoretical player was “truly” a .322 hitter, a .312 hitter who got lucky, a very unlucky .342 hitter, or a .252 hitter who made a deal with a supernatural or extraterrestrial entity. A .300 hitter isn’t observed, they’re inferred.

The way most, if not all, in-season projections (or any projections, really) function is by applying what we call Bayesian inference. We won’t get into a full-blown math class, but in essence, it simply means that we update our hypotheses to take new data into account. And for players, data comes in all the time: every pitch or swing of the bat is new information about a player. It’s valuable information, too, as only the last handful of seasons have much predictive value and recent performance is the most useful. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After pitching his way back from the outskirts of oblivion last year, Trevor Rosenthal fared relatively well via free agency, landing a one-year, $11 million deal from the A’s. Unfortunately, he has yet to take the mound for the team, and now it appears that it could be awhile before he does, even in a best-case scenario. On Thursday, Rosenthal underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, a loss that hardly helps an A’s pitching staff that’s off to a rough start this season.

The 30-year-old Rosenthal spent 2020 with the Royals and Padres, notching 11 saves while tossing 23.2 innings with a 1.90 ERA and 2.22 FIP; both his 41.8% strikeout rate and 33.0% strikeout-walk differential ranked sixth in the majors among relievers with at least 20 innings. He made an impressive rebound from a rough 2 1/2-year stretch that began with late-2017 Tommy John surgery that cost him the last quarter of that season and all of ’18; when he returned, he struggled greatly with his control, walking 26 batters in 15.1 innings while being rocked for a 13.50 ERA, and getting released in mid-season by both the Nationals and Tigers.

Rosenthal agreed to a deal with the A’s on February 18, making him the last reliever from among our Top 50 Free Agents (where he was 36th) to find work. Among free agent relievers, only the pitcher he was expected to replace, Liam Hendriks, received a contract with a higher average annual value, and only Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, and Pedro Báez received larger guarantees. Though slowed by a groin strain in early March, Rosenthal appeared to be on track to open the season with the A’s until a bout of shoulder inflammation led to his placement on the injured list on April 1. Read the rest of this entry »

To begin, I want you to take a look at this screenshot from Saturday’s game between the Mets and Marlins at Citi Field. What do you think happened? What might have been the outcome?

First things first: That’s Jacob deGrom on the mound. He’s the best pitcher on Earth, as well as other inhabited worlds we have yet to discover. And as expected, he’s been mowing down the Marlins. In the first inning, he dismantled Corey Dickerson on four fastballs that went 99.9, 99.8, 100.4, and 100.1 mph. Next, he struck out Starling Marte with two fastballs, both above 99 mph, and a wicked slider. Could Jesús Aguilar, the next batter, save face for his team? Nope; unable to keep up with deGrom’s heater, Aguilar popped out to Pete Alonso in foul territory.

After deGrom retired two more Marlins — both on strikeouts — we’re back to the moment in the screenshot. In the batter’s box is Jazz Chisholm, one of Miami’s many promising young players. Today, in addition to manning second base, he’s tasked with facing a pitcher who has been dominant thus far. It won’t be easy.

Read the rest of this entry »

This week’s docket has several marquee matchups, but we respect your intelligence enough not to explain why Shane Bieber vs. Lucas Giolito or Yu Darvish vs. Dustin May is worth watching. Instead, turn your attention to three games where the visiting pitcher will return to their old stomping grounds, and don’t gloss over Tuesday night’s game in Atlanta either.

Wednesday, April 14, 6:35 PM ET: Joe Musgrove vs. Tyler Anderson

Joe Musgrove is baseball’s hottest pitcher at the moment, and after becoming the first Padres pitcher to throw no-hitter, he’ll try to become the latest ex-Pirates pitcher to make Pittsburgh look silly for having traded him. Musgrove, who Pittsburgh traded to San Diego in January, is looking to join Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow as the latest pitcher to take another leap forward ditching his black and gold threads, and his early-season showing has been superlative. Still only 28, Musgrove was deemed unlikely to help the next good Pirates team (he’s a free agent after the 2022 season), and was traded for prospects. Over his three-year stay in Pittsburgh, during which the team had the majors’ seventh-lowest winning percentage, Musgrove was the Pirates’ best pitcher by nearly two wins. Now, he’s part of a San Diego team built to win a championship, which would already be the second of Musgrove’s underrated career. Read the rest of this entry »

In the sixth inning of Saturday night’s Diamondbacks-Reds game, Tim Locastro took off for second base. Acknowledging the blazing speed of the runner, Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart rushed to get into his throwing motion before even securing the baseball. Thus, Carson Fulmer’s pitch nicked off his glove and skipped to the Chase Field backstop. Locastro made it to second without a throw.

Not once in Locastro’s career has he been caught stealing, with Saturday’s stolen base representing his 28th consecutive successful attempt, a new major league record. It broke the mark set by Tim Raines, who went 27-for-27 to begin his career from 1979 to 1981 (stolen base attempts have been recorded since 1951). To mark the achievement, Locastro’s cleats were swiped (pun fully intended) by Cooperstown, where they will be displayed in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Locastro is something of a baseball enigma, one popularized by baseball YouTuber Foolish Baseball, whose video “Why Tim Locastro Should Be Your Favorite Weird Player” now has 1.1 million views. Locastro is elite — boasting a 99th percentile ability in two very niche skills: running fast and getting hit by pitches. This allows him to frequently get on base even despite a subpar 6.6% career walk rate, and immediately wreck complete havoc on the basepaths. Read the rest of this entry »

Did you know that Tyler Glasnow was once a Pirate? Yes, like every other baseball writer in existence, I’m contractually obligated to point that out in any article I write about him. Good news, though — I promise that’s the last time I’ll mention them in this article, because I want to talk about something that Glasnow has done this year to add a much-needed wrinkle to his game.

The Glasnow of the past few years was a two-trick pony, if such a thing exists. Trick one: a fastball that sits around 97 mph and touches 101 when he needs it. It doesn’t stand out for exceptional rise or transverse spin efficiency, but it doesn’t need to. Glasnow’s velocity and extension make for a flat-planed, dynamic pitch that both misses bats and induces weak contact.

You already knew that, because you can’t watch a Glasnow appearance without marveling at the graceful explosion of the pitch, seemingly catapulted by his smooth delivery. Here, watch him overpower J.D. Martinez:

Ah, what a joy to watch. Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Musgrove came into the season viewed by many as a breakout candidate, and it’s easy to see why. The 28-year-old Pirate-turned-Padre possesses plus stuff, and the change of scenery — from Pittsburgh to his hometown of San Diego, no less — portends more success…. particularly in the won-loss column. Musgrove went a paltry 1-5 with the N.L. Central cellar-dwellers in 2020, while his new club is poised to win, per our projections, 94 games in the current campaign.

By and large, the breakout has already happened, and not solely because the 6-foot-5, 235-pound right-hander hurled the year’s first no-hitter on Friday night. His 2020 peripherals were those of a pitcher who’d turned the corner. With the caveat that it was a pandemic-shortened season, Mugrove set career-bests in ERA, FIP, and strikeout rate, and more importantly, he did so with improved pitch profiles. Per StatCast, the spin and movement of his offerings were better than they’d ever been.

I asked the righty about that in a spring-training Zoom session.

“I’m not really a big analytical guy; I’m not big on the Rapsodo numbers,” responded Musgrove. “I look at that information more as a benchmark. When I have real strong outings, or I have real poor outings, I look at the numbers to see where they’re at when I’m good, or when I’m poor. But by no means am I going home and saying, ‘I need to get 200 more RPM on my curveball,’ or ‘I need to change the spin axis on this pitch.’ I kind of just let our analytical guys coach me up a little bit on that, and offer suggestions where they can.” Read the rest of this entry »

After a phenomenal debut in 2019, Chris Paddack took a significant step back in his sophomore campaign. Much of those struggles could be linked to the performance of his four-seam fastball. In 2019, opposing batters hit just .204 against his four-seamer with a .275 wOBA. Those marks jumped to .308 and .413, respectively, in 2020. Likewise, Paddack went from a whiff rate on his heater of 23.2% his rookie year to 20.9% last season, a mark just barely over league average for a four-seamer. With that pitch and a plus changeup making up the majority of his pitch mix, the ineffectiveness of his fastball had a much larger impact on his results, as he simply didn’t have anything else in his repertoire.

This spring, Paddack decided to start looking at the analytics behind his fastball. In a mid-March media session, he spoke at length about what he learned about how its shape affects his results:

“Last year I was east to west. I was pulling off. My spin direction was outside of one, for y’all that know the baseball term of that. The axis of the baseball… I was getting two-seam run on my four-seam fastball.”

Here’s a look at the physical characteristics of Paddack’s fastball and its percentile ranks when compared within each pitch type:

Read the rest of this entry »