As someone who runs a lot of projections, I’m used to being very wrong. Of the approximately 4,000 players projected every season, some 800 or so will fail to meet their 10th-percentile projection or exceed their 90th, meaning ZiPS, and by extension Dan Szymborski, will be/look horribly wrong. There’s still time before the start of the regular season to put myself into even greater jeopardy, meaning it’s time for my annual list of favorite booms and busts. The concept for these is simple, in that these are my picks for players to change how they are currently perceived. Sometimes it’s because of a projection, sometimes because of a hunch, a gut feeling, or just something I think projections might not be capturing. Since we’re going on a limb here, there will be some epic failures, and maybe [prayer emoji] even a success or two.

As usual, let’s start with a quick review of last year’s picks. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the opening series of the regular season in Japan, then (10:55) discuss the removal (and eventual restoration) of a page about Jackie Robinson on the Department of Defense website, before (39:53) bantering further about breakouts, how player heights dropped (or didn’t!) after players were measured more accurately this spring, Joey Gallo’s attempted conversion to pitching, and an abandoned Marlins player-development idea. Then (1:27:38) they talk to Pirates pitching phenom Paul Skenes about being a cover model for MLB The Show 25, his stoic exterior, starters as stars, an auction for his debut baseball card, his hobbies, his expanding pitch mix, and max-effort pitching.

Audio intro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Randy Johnson on EW
Link to Ohtani homer
Link to ratings info
Link to Davy gamer 1
Link to Davy gamer 2
Link to post about Jackie page
Link to article about Jackie page
Link to archived 404 page
Link to restored page
Link to NPR on Rogers page
Link to first statement to Passan
Link to second statement to Passan
Link to segregation ban story
Link to MLB D&I page
Link to old MLB D&I page
Link to post about change
Link to CBB breakouts tweet
Link to height changes sheet
Link to pitcher-measuring info
Link to Gallo tweet
Link to Ben on Gallo in 2014
Link to TTO% leaderboard
Link to Marlins ad
Link to Stock tweet
Link to Herald on Marlins
Link to Athletic on Marlins
Link to The Show gameplay trailer
Link to The Show launch trailer
Link to Livvy’s nonchalant quote
Link to Skenes composure quote
Link to Skenes Opening Day reveal
Link to Skenes dexterity quote
Link to new pitches story
Link to Skenes auction
Link to Skenes on workload
Link to deGrom story
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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Last year’s edition of the center field Positional Power Rankings marked a changing of the guard. With Julio Rodríguez and the Mariners taking over the top spot, it was the first time since 2013 that the Mike Trout-led Angels did not lead the pack. The times have continued a-changin’, as Trout is no longer a center fielder and the assortment of ex-prospects the Angels are running out in his stead have sunk to 27th. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is no longer pushing the Yankees to the second spot, as the combination of Juan Soto’s crosstown move and Giancarlo Stanton’s elbow woes has freed the two-time MVP to return to right field, with occasional time at DH. Read the rest of this entry »

Who’s on third? For the Red Sox, the answer appears to be Alex Bregman. When the two-time All-Star and reigning AL Gold Glove third baseman signed with Boston last month, the move created controversy given the presence and the initial public reaction of Rafael Devers, a three-time All-Star and, because of his 10-year contract, the cornerstone of the franchise. These things have a way of working themselves out, however, and Bregman is now on track to handle the hot corner to start the season, with Devers serving as the designated hitter — a move that should strengthen the lineup and defense.

The 30-year-old Bregman agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox on February 12. When he signed, several outlets noted the likelihood, or at least the possibility, that he would switch from the position at which he’s spent most of his nine-year major league career, particularly as the Red Sox had already acknowledged the situation. When the team was courting Bregman in January, manager Alex Cora — who coached him in Houston — told NESN viewers of his previous experience with the infielder:

“Alex was a Gold Glover at third base. We all know that… But in 2017, I had a conversation with him and he needed to play third because it was [Carlos] Correa and [Jose] Altuve [at shortstop and second]. I always envisioned Alex as a Gold Glove second baseman. His size, the way he moves, it felt kind of like, ‘You will be a second baseman.’ But he has played third base at a high level. So we’ll see where he ends up and we’ll see where he ends up playing.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Left fielders have traditionally been boppers, with the likes of Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez — to name just two — populating the position over the past few decades. There have been Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner types as well, but by and large, big-time power guys have ruled the roost in the port-side corner. That hasn’t been the case of late. Last year, Yordan Alvarez and Teoscar Hernández were the only left fielders to top the 30 homer mark. Which isn’t to say the Crawfords and Gardeners have completely taken over. It’s more that the inhabitants of left field feature a mix of styles, with some possessing more multi-faceted skill sets than others. Read the rest of this entry »

Since one of the original driving forces behind sabermetrics was to shine a light on the game’s underappreciated players, to give them their own place in the annals, I’ve always had an attachment to third basemen. Throughout baseball’s history, the hot corner has been one of the “tinker of all, master of none” positions. The best third basemen often don’t put up the gaudy Triple Crown stats of first basemen and corner outfielders, and only a few generate the sort of attention for their fielding that the top shortstops or center fielders do. Sabermetrics generally, and measures like WAR specifically, have helped to remedy some of this. Ron Santo and Dick Allen have both now gained entry to the Hall of Fame — though, sadly, both were elected after passing away — and Scott Rolen had a far quicker path to Cooperstown than I ever expected when he retired. Read the rest of this entry »

Early Wednesday morning, the regular season ended — for another week anyway. The Dodgers and Cubs played the second and final game of the Tokyo Series, casting us back into the pit of spring training baseball. Below, some notes on the game, a 6-3 Los Angeles win.

First Inning
It’s snowing in Tokyo. Roki Sasaki Day has finally come.

I woke up just after 4:00 a.m. ET and once again decided to just stay up. I have already written a thousand words about Max Scherzer. I’m not necessarily crisp.

On the first pitch of the game, Justin Steele starts Shohei Ohtani off with a fastball over the plate. Of course he does. He’s Justin Steele. Ohtani seems to be familiar with the scouting report – uh, fastballs – and he launches the ball to the opposite field. For a moment you think he’ll do it. The crowd thinks he’ll do it. Ohtani looks up at the ball hopefully, then grimaces. It lands just short of the warning track. Read the rest of this entry »

In the not-so-distant past, the shortstop position was dominated by defense-first players who hit at the bottom of the lineup. Pitchers loved to see them coming because it meant they could mentally check out for a batter. Meanwhile, if a shortstop could hit, he probably played pretty clumsy defense. I find it a bit trite to declare anything a renaissance while it’s still happening, and I don’t have the historical baseball authority to do so anyway, but I do want to acknowledge how impressive it is that such a strong majority of the starting shortstops on this list can legitimately hit and defend. Well-rounded shortstops are no longer unicorns or “nice to have.” Well-rounded shortstops are the standard. Glove-only shortstops are the aberration. Read the rest of this entry »

CJ Abrams does not wait patiently. That’s never been his thing. He rampaged his way to the major leagues in 2022 at age 21, on a playoff contender no less. Now, should he have been in the majors that year? It’s easy, in retrospect, to question San Diego’s decision to call him up. He was below replacement level as a rookie with the Padres before they sent him to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, and then he was also below replacement level with Washington that year. But doing things even before they make sense has always been Abrams’ game.

To wit: You wouldn’t teach a major leaguer to swing like Abrams does. He’s one of the most aggressive hackers in the sport. His 53.1% swing rate – and 34.2% chase rate – are both among the highest marks in the league. And this isn’t some case of premeditated, Corey Seager-style aggression, either. Everyone who swings more frequently than Abrams swings at more strikes than he does. Seager chases seven percentage points less frequently and swings at strikes seven percentage points more frequently. Abrams isn’t playing six dimensional chess when he swings. He’s trying to do this:

That’s absurd (complimentary). As fate would have it, I was watching that game on TV when it happened as part of an article I hoped to write on the opposing pitcher, Hayden Birdsong. I made a strange sound when Abrams hit that ball, somewhere between a laugh and a gasp. Look at his contact point again:

Read the rest of this entry »

Second base is the bass guitar of a baseball team. If you’re there, most people will assume that you don’t have the chops to play lead or rhythm guitar (shortstop and third base in this metaphor). And unless you’re truly exceptional, those same people will immediately forget you exist. Most of the time, it’s a thankless, anonymous job. But while most four-piece rock bands can plug along with a mediocre bassist, an exceptional bassist can elevate the group’s sound, and indeed come to define it.

Unless one of the youngsters listed below really pops in 2025, “exceptional” will probably be difficult to come by at this position. But competence abounds. Some 15 teams are projected for 3.0 WAR or more at this position, with 24 teams projected for 2.5 WAR or better. You could count on one hand the teams that have neither a solid regular at second base nor a prospect with that upside waiting in the high minors. Read the rest of this entry »