It’s performance review week at my day job, which means I get to find out how many WAR my manager thinks I accrued last year. Based on that, she’ll assign me into one of four buckets: poor, developing, strong, and top. It’s one of those systems where the top and bottom levers are rarely exercised but the road to a “strong” is traversable ground.

At my workplace, annual compensation adjustments are directly tied to which category an employee falls into. In the lowest bucket — I’m sure someone’s fallen into it but I’ve yet to see or hear about it — you won’t receive anything, but after that it’s smooth sailing. The next rung up gets a cost of living bump or a little more, and the raises only increase from there.

It’s not a perfect system, of course. A couple of the performance inputs feel a little BABIP-ey, subject to the whims of Google’s search algorithms and the ability of our teammates. Speaking of teammates, clubhouse chemistry undoubtedly matters here: The camaraderie of your team and your relationship with management are like park factors, invisible mechanisms adding or subtracting a thousand bucks from what our $/WAR suggests we should earn. Still, the criteria is reasonably clear and the process about as transparent as I could ask for.

***

Poor: Performance often falls below the expectations of the role despite support, follow-up and feedback. Read the rest of this entry »

Brady Singer isn’t exactly a square peg in a round hole, but he is atypical among modern-day hurlers. At a time where high heater is all the rage, the 24-year-old Kansas City Royals right-hander prefers to hunt groundballs, and he does so almost exclusively with a two-pitch mix. Moreover, his velocity is middling. Singer’s tailing two-seamer averaged a bit over 93 mph last year, while his slurvy slider was 10 mph south of that mark.

And then there was his take rate. Legendary Detroit Tigers broadcaster Ernie Harwell used to say that a batter, “Stood there like the house by the side of the road and watched that one go by,” and the phrase could have been used often with the former Florida Gator toeing the rubber. Among pitchers to throw at least 40 innings, only Lance McCullers Jr. logged a lower Z-Swing% than did Singer.

Drafted 18th-overall by the Royals in 2018, Singer finished his 2020 rookie campaign with a 4.06 ERA, a 4.08 FIP, and a 53.1% groundball rate over a dozen starts. His K/9 — this despite a pitch-to-contact MO — was a solid 8.53. Filled with confidence, Singer is comfortably slotted in the middle of the Royals rotation for the 2021 season.

———

David Laurila: How do you self-identify as a pitcher?

Brady Singer: “I’m a sinker guy. I’m one of the few sinker guys that are still around. The big thing now, with analytics, is four-seamers up in the zone with a lot of ride. I’m fully two-seamers. I can make it run, and I can make a sink. I guess I’m one of the guys that hasn’t adapted to the major analytic standpoint. Basically, I like to move the ball around a lot.” Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of college baseball and spring training thoughts from this past weekend. Remember, prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Kevin’s Notes

Will The College Hitters Please Come Forward?

Eric and I have talked about this subject in this space and elsewhere, but the college hitter group for the 2021 draft is developing into an especially challenging one for scouting departments. Much of that is because with both an exceptionally short 2020 season and no Cape Cod League, it was hard to line up boards heading into the year. Some of the best freshmen from 2019 became the best draft-eligible bats heading into the year almost by default, and many have disappointed. Take a look at this quartet, all of whom entered the season as potential top-half of the first round picks. Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros attempted to deal with the fallout of the Framber Valdez injury this weekend by signing free agent Jake Odorizzi to a two-year contract that could be worth up to $30 million with incentives, including a third-year option with a buyout.

Full terms on Odorizzi deal aren’t known but with incentives he has a chance to make $30M over 2 years that would include a buyout on the 3rd year player option #Astros

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 6, 2021

Odorizzi took a qualifying offer from the Twins after the 2019 season with the hope of further establishing his value for a possible long-term deal after 2020, when he would no longer be saddled with the loss of a draft pick. Unfortunately, last year didn’t pan out that way, as his season was ruined by a series of injuries: an intercostal strain that bothered him over the summer; a chest contusion from a line drive; and blisters that kept him from taking part in Minnesota’s latest doomed playoff run. Ultimately, he only managed to pitch four games and wasn’t particularly effective, with a 6.59 ERA and 6.12 FIP in 13 2/3 innings.

Odorizzi was reportedly looking for a three-year deal (I heard this as well, and I’m not anywhere near as connected as the tireless Ken Rosenthal). The problem is, only a single free-agent pitcher received a guaranteed three-year contract this offseason: Trevor Bauer. And Odorizzi is not coming off winning a Cy Young award.

Read the rest of this entry »

Friday was a red-letter day for the Angels as well as anyone else who’s been following the ongoing saga of the majors’ most notable two-way player. Shohei Ohtani made his first Cactus League pitching appearance of the spring — his first in nearly three years, actually — a milestone that will hopefully become a footnote as he works his way back to regular rotation duty following a string of injuries.

The 26-year-old Ohtani started Friday’s exhibition against the A’s and worked 1.2 innings, throwing 41 pitches, 24 for strikes (five swinging, eight looking, eight foul, three in play). All five A’s that he retired were via strikeouts, though his outing was hardly pristine. In the first inning, after striking out leadoff hitter Mark Canha looking at a fastball, he yielded a sizzling double down the line by Elvis Andrus, then after whiffing Matt Olson via a fastball, he walked Matt Chapman before striking out Mitch Moreland swinging at a filthy splitter. He got into further trouble in the second inning, serving up a hustle double to Ramón Laureano and then another double to Tony Kemp — a fly ball into the right-center gap, the hardest hit he allowed — that sandwiched a strikeout of Chad Pinder via another splitter. He then walked Aramis Garica before striking out Canha, again on a splitter.

Ohtani departed with two outs in the second because he’d surpassed the Angels’ 40-pitch target. With three hits, two walks, and one run allowed, this was no gem. The scoreboard didn’t have velocity readings and there was no Trackman data, but a scout relayed to Eric Longenhagen that his fastball ranged from 96-99 mph (some reports had 100), with the strikeouts coming on 98 and 99. His slider ranged from 82-85 mph, his curve was 76 mph, and his changeup/splitter (Eric’s source thought it was a splitter, but the broadcast referred to it inconsistently) 88-90 mph. While he struggled to command his slider, the splitter was devastating. Manager Joe Maddon described Ohtani’s delivery as “more clean and consistent,” adding, “I like his arm stroke better. It starts there and then he’s able to recapture the velocity he’s had in the past, and the really good break of his splitter. The big thing for his success is going to be repetition of delivery and knowing where his fastball is going consistently.” Read the rest of this entry »

Shohei Ohtani has already done it. There’s a video on YouTube you can watch if you want to — hundreds, actually, but I’m thinking of one in particular. Over 22 minutes long, and all of it beyond belief. There is the best pitcher in the league, with the diving splitter, with the fastball no one can catch up with; there is the best hitter, with his OPS over 1.000, launching baseballs with such power that they seem to disappear off the bat, flying over scoreboards, into streets, to the very furthest reaches of where you could imagine a human being could hit a baseball. And it is the same person, just one person, doing both of these things. You wouldn’t believe it unless you saw it. But you can see it, right now. Back then, too, people saw it. Millions of people: watching from their homes, from bars, from the stands, where they held up signs, held their breath, waiting for the next feat to come.

This was in 2016. Ohtani was only 21 years old.

***

It’s hard to believe that the spring of 2018, when Ohtani played his first games with the Angels, was only three years ago. It seems like so much longer. Partially because so much happened so fast. One moment, it was the Ohtani Sweepstakes of 2017-18, with the number of teams being gradually narrowed, the reports trickling in, each fanbase eventually resigning themselves to his absence, except for the one that won out. There was a brief time of dreaming, all smiles and photoshoots, slotting his name into imaginary batting orders alongside Mike Trout — and then it was time for spring, when it didn’t matter and you didn’t have to worry about it, except it did, and you did, too. Those first few outings — the walks from the mound, the strikeouts at the plate — the crowing from fans who would have you believe they never wanted the guy in the first place, the reports from anonymous scouts saying it wouldn’t play, it couldn’t play, not here in the big leagues.

But it played. From the very beginning, it played — like it had been scripted. A solid, winning start — a home run, launched, with the bases nearly full — a high five to an imaginary line of teammates, and then the real celebration. A perfect game taken into the seventh inning. More trips around the bases. He’s already done it. Why not again? Why not now, with even more millions of people watching? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. Each blurb ends with an indication of where the player played in 2020, which in turn likely informed the changes to their report if there were any. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Spring training taking place on (what is hopefully) the back end of a pandemic makes for different routines and challenges, and not just for players and coaching staffs. Media relations personnel are impacted as well. Due to COVID-19 protocols, how they’re going about their business is anything but ordinary.

Dustin Morse is among those having to adjust on the fly. Now in his 16th season with the Minnesota Twins — his sixth as Senior Director of Communications — Morse is doing more than masking-up when he arrives at Hammond Stadium every morning. With face-to-face interactions limited, he’s juggling responsibilities in an increasingly-virtual world, and with one of his favorite areas of the Fort Myers facility off limits.

“Not being in the press box is a real change,” explained Morse, who along with colleagues Mitch Hestad and Elvis Martinez have either Tier 1 or Tier 2 status. As they’re allowed in highly-restricted areas, they can’t mingle with reporters or with others in less-restricted areas. “One way we’d been doing it with Derek [Falvey] and Thad [Levine] is that they’d give me information and I’d deliver it directly to the media during spring training. My usual office there is right behind the press box, and we’d have almost-daily briefings. That’s not allowed this year.”

Nina Zimmerman, who is on Morse’s staff as a communications assistant, is being entrusted to run the press box. Her responsibilities include official scoring, keeping track of substitutions, and announcing when players are available to speak to the media in-game. Not being in a tier, Zimmerman doesn’t have access to restricted areas. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Shohei Ohtani’s first home run and pitching appearance of spring training, follow up on their previous discussion about the abominable baseball scene in Tom & Jerry, and recap the results of a Baseball America study about the number of big leaguers (and good big leaguers) in the average farm system, then preview the 2021 Red Sox (31:32) with Alex Speier of The Boston Globe and the 2021 Reds (1:13:42) with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.

Audio intro: Real Estate, "It’s Real"
Audio interstitial 1: The Style Council, "All Gone Away"
Audio interstitial 2: Cordovas, "Step Back Red"
Audio outro: Fiona Apple, "Red Red Red"

Link to Ohtani splitter GIFs
Link to story on Ohtani’s homer
Link to Fabian on Ohtani having fun
Link to Tom & Jerry clip
Link to actual Gordon fly ball
Link to Tom & Jerry director interview
Link to Baseball America prospects study
Link to earlier BA study about future all-stars
Link to Jeff on good players and prospects
Link to Jeff on good players who weren’t prospects
Link to Alex on Martinez rebuilding himself
Link to Alex on Cora
Link to Alex on Cordero
Link to Alex on Boston’s outfield
Link to Homegrown paperback
Link to Trent on Greene
Link to Trent in 2020 on Driveline
Link to Redleg Nation post on Reds’ unlucky offense
Link to Reddit post on Reds’ unlucky offense
Link to Trent on Farmer
Link to Trent on the Reds’ payroll
Link to Redleg Nation post on Votto’s adjustment
Link to Trent and Eno on Votto

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On Wednesday, I tackled my picks for 2021’s breakout hitters, so now it’s time to look at the pitchers who feel like good bets to reach a new level of performance this season. Pitchers are inherently volatile creatures, so while there’s the potential for looking smart, there’s ample opportunity to end up sitting in the analytical dunce corner with that pointy hat that I’m not sure was actually ever a real thing. Let’s get straight into the names!

Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees

The Yankees were cautious with Montgomery in 2020, a smart thing to do for a pitcher who was returning from Tommy John surgery in a season in which every good team made the playoffs. The 5.11 ERA in his 10 starts wasn’t impressive, but many of the underlying numbers were. A .320 BABIP meant that his FIP was a much sunnier 3.87, but the good stuff doesn’t end there. Compared to his promising rookie season of 2017, Montgomery walked fewer batters, struck out more, and induced more soft contact. A lot of soft contact, actually; Monty’s average exit velocity of 84.6 mph was the third-lowest in baseball, behind Ryan Yarbrough and Max Fried. Not bad for a pitcher coming off two lost seasons! I don’t think it would be the nuttiest thing in the world if Montgomery ends up playing Andy Pettitte to Gerrit Cole’s Roger Clemens in 2021.

Read the rest of this entry »