In eight of the 12 different count-states, fouls and whiffs come with the same penalty: a strike. In a 1–1 count, for example, it really doesn’t matter whether you look silly swinging and missing at a curveball or just miss a home run by being a few inches wide of the foul pole. In either case, hitters have to come back for another swing, with the count now 1–2.

We all know this. Those are just the rules of the game. But it creates a very interesting hierarchy for hitters. When a hitter swings, only one of three things can happen: He can put the ball in play, foul it off, or whiff. And, as mentioned, for two-thirds of those outcomes — the foul and the whiff — no distinction is even made in eight of the 12 count-states. No wonder that the league-average hitter, by run value, is penalized when he swings.

But fouls have a unique property that makes them wholly different than whiffs: the ability to prolong at-bats. In the same way that you can’t lose on a serve in ping pong, you can’t strike out on a foul ball (bunts excluded). While they carry the same penalty as whiffs in all non–two-strike counts, foul balls manage to be the only safety net for hitters when their backs are against the wall, and to me, it makes for a pretty interesting dichotomy when you break it down that way.

Because foul balls provide this special safety net for hitters, it would make sense intuitively that hitters who foul off more pitches probably strike out less. If a hitter fouls off a lot of pitches, especially relative to the number of whiffs he creates, he is almost certainly going to avoid a K and eventually should get a pitch to put in play. Indeed, there is a pretty strong correlation between foul-to-whiff ratio and strikeout rate:

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It’s Friday, so it’s Chin Music time. The co-host chair returns to New York yet again, as the always entertaining Andy Mccullough, senior writer for The Athletic, joins me for two hours of mostly baseball. We start with the news of the day and talk about the rash of no-hitters, the rash of injuries, the rash of good teams in the American League East, and how we’re perfectly fine with the Dodgers signing Albert Pujols. We’re then joined by special guest Herb Lawerence, Chicago radio veteran and host of the Locked on Sox podcast, to discuss a very good White Sox team and the constant distractions created by Tony La Russa. Herb has some thoughts, and he doesn’t hold back. Then it’s emails about trade partners, the CBA, umpires, and Tommy Lee Jones, before getting into a Moment of Culture, catching up with Andy, and then departing.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by the amazing French noise/punk trio Decibelles.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 923

On this week’s episode, we’re talking to a pair of pitchers before discussing a future Hall of Famer changing uniforms.

• At the top of the show, David Laurila is joined by Oakland A’s left-hander Cole Irvin and Houston Astros right-hander Colin McKee to talk about their craft. Irvin and McKee explain what kind of Statcast data they like to utilize — and what they don’t — and how they can use analysis to continue to develop on the mound. They also discuss teaching pitching in the offseason, how spin affects pitchers in various ways, variety in long-toss exercises, and the differences between pitching in the rotation and the bullpen. [2:27]
• After that, Jason Martinez and Jay Jaffe get together to discuss Albert Pujols joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. Jay recently wrote about the move, and he and Jason go over what kind of impact Pujols could make for the defending champions. Can he still hit lefties well enough to make a difference? And how will this potentially affect his legacy? Jason and Jay ponder the possibilities of Pujols’ future and reflect on the influence he has had on the game and its players. [28:17]

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These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Games from 5/18

Terrin Vavra, MIF/CF, Baltimore Orioles
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Bowie Age: 24 Org Rank: 9  FV: 45
Line: 3-for-3, 2 BB, HR
Notes
This makes five consecutive multi-hit games for Vavra. Cursory video analysis shows no change in his swing or physicality; he’s just on an epic early-season heater and should probably be at Triple-A. The real development here is his defensive movement: After playing both middle infield spots with Colorado, he’s now also getting reps in center field with Baltimore. Those who miss and appreciate all-fields contact will love Vavra, who is very adept at hitting outside pitches to the opposite field. He projects as a good multi-positional role player. Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of thoughts after another week of college baseball and minor league play. Remember: prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Eric’s Notes

Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain High School

High schoolers with profiles driven by their hit tool are becoming more sought-after in the draft room, and every year there are guys who don’t light up the showcase circuit workouts with big tools and instead need some combination of time and impressive swing-and-miss data to be appreciated. Kath is one of those players. On Tuesday, his high school won the Arizona 5A State Championship as Kath homered and reached base several times. He has a sweet lefty swing and advanced bat control, as well as a good baseball frame. He’s currently a shortstop and is capable of making routine plays there, with a sufficient arm for short and good body control, but his size and slow-twitch movements might push him to third base, and some scouts think he’ll eventually end up at first. Kath does not have big bat speed, and his swing tends to look long when he offers at lower pitches, but that’s what has to happen for him to get the barrel there with lift. West Coast hit tool guys like this tend to sign for close to $1 million.

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Jordan Westburg is a promising young hitter off to a good start in his first professional season. Drafted 30th overall last year out of Mississippi State University, the 22-year-old infielder is slashing .364/.482/.591 in 56 plate appearances for the low-A Delmarva Shorebirds. In the words of our own Eric Longenhagen, Westburg has been doing his damage with “a short, compact [right-handed] swing that is geared for contact at the top of the zone.”

Westburg — No. 8 on our Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects list — talked hitting prior to Wednesday’s game against the Carolina Mudcats.

———

David Laurila: We’re going to talking hitting, but let’s start with getting hit. Do you ever get asked about how often you get plunked by pitches?

Jordan Westburg: “I got asked that when I was in college. The simple answer is that I’m probably crowding the plate a little bit, and when guys try to come in hard on me, sometimes they miss their spot. But yeah, I’ve always had a knack for being hit by pitches, for whatever reason. I’m kind of a ball magnet. That’s kind of followed me into pro ball — I’ve already been hit a few times so far this season — but I don’t mind them, especially with two strikes. Bring them on. I’ll take the on-base percentage over strikeouts any day.”

Laurila: Brandon Guyer comes to mind.

Westburg: “Oh, yeah. There’s something to be said about just taking those HBPs. If a pitcher is going to make a mistake… I mean, it’s the same as if he leaves a fastball over the middle and you hammer it. You’re getting on base to start something for your team.”

Laurila: Is there an art to getting hit by pitches? Read the rest of this entry »

For the better part of five years, Corey Kluber was borderline unhittable. At his double-Cy-Young peak, he was a one-man dead ball era, putting up a 2.85 ERA even as offensive numbers exploded across the league. Though he never closed the deal, he felt like a threat to pitch a no-hitter every time he started.

Kluber isn’t the same pitcher he once was. His walk rate is nearly double where it sat in those halcyon years; his strikeout rate has declined. His fastball doesn’t always crest 90 mph anymore. But he still has that same vicious cutter/slurve combination that powered his ascent, and let’s be honest with each other: This year, nearly every pitcher feels like a threat to throw a no-hitter every time out.

Kluber no-hit the Rangers last night, a capstone achievement that will forever feel slightly out of place with the arc of his career. That’s not to discount the moment: He was excellent last night. He worked off of his slurve rather than vice versa; he threw 31 of them and only 23 sinkers. From the start of the game, he was placing the pitch exactly where he wanted it, befuddling the Rangers’ lineup:

Kluber’s ceaseless desire to fill up the zone worked in his favor last night. He drew a whopping 25 called strikes, a number he hadn’t surpassed since his glory days. Batters step in against him wondering which breaking ball he’ll embarrass them with, which is a truly awful mindset to take into at-bats against a strike-throwing machine, but that’s always been his unique gift: He throws so many pitches that break at so many strange angles, putting batters at a disadvantage right from the jump.
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Despite all the injuries the Mets are dealing with — including losing two key regulars to hamstring injuries in the same inning on Sunday and then two more players the next day — they still lead the NL East with a 20-17 record while the Braves lag behind and languish below .500 at 20-23. The latter’s hopes for a fourth straight division title have taken a significant hit over the past several days with their own losses of two starting pitchers. Mike Soroka, who had yet to appear for the team this year, underwent exploratory surgery on his inflamed right Achilles tendon on Monday, while Huascar Ynoa was diagnosed with a fracture in his right hand sustained when he punched a dugout bench in frustration on Sunday, thus interrupting a breakout season. Both will be out until at least the All-Star break, and quite possibly longer than that.

For Soroka, this is just the latest disappointment in a frustrating series of events that began last August 3. Three starts into the follow-up of a stellar rookie season in which he made the NL All-Star team and placed second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, he tore his right Achilles, sidelining him for the remainder of the 2020 campaign. The Braves hoped that he would be available to join their rotation by mid-April, but after making just one Grapefruit League appearance and several in simulated games at the team’s alternate site, he was shut down due to shoulder discomfort and wasn’t cleared to resume throwing until late April.

After experiencing renewed discomfort in his surgically repaired Achilles during his recent workouts, Soroka had an MRI, and when that proved inconclusive, he underwent an exploratory procedure and clean-up by Dr. Robert Anderson, the surgeon who performed his initial repair. Via The Athletic’s David O’Brien, Anderson will reevaluate the pitcher in two-to-four weeks, “to determine if anything else needs to be done and when he might be able to resume his rehab schedule.” Read the rest of this entry »

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Why is it so easy to fill in the pool that the Washington Nationals own? That’s right — it has no depth. The Nats have relied on a stars-and-scrubs approach for years, hoping that their stellar headliners can offset some of the clunkers at the bottom of the roster. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t, but the central motivation behind their roster has been strikingly consistent in recent years.

In 2021, some of the stars aren’t shining as brightly as the team hoped. Juan Soto has missed three weeks with injury and is off to a slow, power-sapped start. Stephen Strasburg made only two starts before landing on the Injured List. Patrick Corbin has been disastrous. Offseason acquisitions Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber, who were supposed to stabilize the lineup, are off to slow starts, Bell in particular. It’s not a great year for the boom/bust roster-building philosophy.

In a great stroke of irony, however, the Nats have found a solid bat that could lengthen their lineup and give Soto and Trea Turner some help. There are just two problems: they have nowhere to play him, and he still has some tinkering to do. Yadiel Hernandez looks like the kind of hitter that good teams need, an above-average bat summoned from the minors. Due to the team’s roster construction, he’s been banished to the bench. Should a spot open up, however, he might be the exact thing the team has been missing.
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This season, two sidearm relievers – the Rays’ Ryan Thompson and the Giants’ Tyler Rogers – are leaving hitters dumbstruck with their unusual pitching styles. Besides releasing the ball near their shoe tops, though, Thompson and Rogers have another thing in common.

Both pitchers wear jersey numbers far above what most baseball players would consider traditional. Thompson, who proudly wears No. 81, rocks a number that would fit in better with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than the Rays. Meanwhile, Rogers has been the best pitcher out of the San Francisco bullpen with No. 71 on his back, and says that he likely would have ditched it had he not been so fortunate on the mound.

Thompson and Rogers discussed the process behind getting their numbers, how important they are to them now, and all of the strange experiences that have come from boldly wearing a number that so many others will not. Read the rest of this entry »