That final step towards a World Series return again proved elusive for the Tampa Bay Rays Friday night. After carefully nursing a slim 1-0 lead through the early innings, the Rays lost control of the game in the fifth, eventually dropping Game 6 to the Houston Astros by a 7-4 margin. After jumping ahead to a 3-0 series lead, the Rays have now lost three consecutive games, pushing themselves the brink of elimination and the ignominious feat of joining the 2004 New York Yankees as the only teams in baseball history to blow such a series advantage in the playoffs.

Offense has been at a premium in the ALCS, and initially, it looked like this game would be no exception, with four batters in the first inning going down on strikes. Blake Snell’s first inning was a glimpse into how the rest of his afternoon would go: he was effective on paper, but the Astros were downright stingy at swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, forcing him to work hard for his outs.

While the broadcasters talked about shadows more often than Gandalf did in the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy (yesterday’s were of the non-Sauron variety), Framber Valdez‘s primary weapon in Game 6 was his extraordinarily effective curveball. Despite the Rays being the second-most effective offense against bendy pitches in 2020, Valdez didn’t fear matching strength vs. strength, throwing the pitch more than half the time; when the Rays offered, they missed nearly two-thirds of the time. Hunter Renfroe’s futile attempts to hit the offering were great examples of what has made 2020 Valdez an upgrade from the 2019 edition: behind 3-1 against the former Padre, he dropped two beautiful curves in just about the perfect place to induce unsatisfying swings.

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In a matchup that spawned 1,000 memes, Will Smith — the Braves left-handed reliever — finally faced off against Will Smith — the Dodgers catcher — in Game 5 of the NLCS. With two men on, two outs, and down by a run, the only thing out of place in this Hollywood script was the inning — it was the bottom of the sixth inning rather than the ninth. But destiny would not be denied. Smith the Pitcher had been brought in to face Max Muncy in the previous at-bat. In a fantastic display of discipline, Muncy worked a walk, ensuring the showdown between the two Wills Smith. That moment would prove to be the turning point in the game.

Up to that point, Braves pitching had stymied the Dodgers’ hitters. A.J. Minter had been selected as the starter for Brian Snitker’s club in what promised to be a bullpen game. A reliever for his entire professional career, he was the first pitcher to ever make his first career start in the postseason. He wound up going three innings — his longest professional appearance — and struck out seven. The only blemish against him was a two-out double in the first inning. The red hot Corey Seager snuck a solo home run just over the center field wall to lead off the fourth but Tyler Matzek and Shane Greene stood firm and got the team through the fifth inning with a 2-1 lead.

Greene was sent back out to start the sixth and allowed Mookie Betts to reach on a leadoff infield single. A harmless fly out from Seager followed, forcing Betts to get aggressive on the basepaths to try to get a rally started. He stole second but was erased on a fielder’s choice off Justin Turner’s bat. Some heads up baserunning got Turner to second during Betts’ rundown, leaving first base open for Muncy. Smith the Pitcher started Muncy off with five straight sliders. The first three were off the plate away; the next two were called strikes over the plate. Muncy spat on all five. The sixth pitch of the at-bat was a fastball just off the outer edge of the plate; Muncy refused to move his bat. It was a bold take to cap off a fantastic exercise in discipline. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a podcast interview that may hinge on the Rays winning the World Series, John Smoltz’s on-air app suggestion, the latest developments in the Dave Roberts and Clayton Kershaw playoff narratives, the Dodgers and Astros on the brink, the long-term outlook for Randy Arozarena, encouraging catcher glove gestures, the White Sox firing Rick Renteria, and Billy Beane possibly calling it quits as a baseball executive. Then (44:00) they bring on Bradford William Davis of the New York Daily News to discuss why and how MLB proceeded with plans to sell tickets to the NLCS and World Series, whether the league has lived up to its public health commitments, the forecast for attendance in 2021, and how and why Bradford is planning to cover the World Series in person.

Audio intro: Randy Newman, "Naked Man"
Audio interstitial: Sam Evian, "Health Machine"
Audio outro: Paul McCartney, "Hunt You Down/Naked/C-Link"

Link to article about “OnlyFanGraphs”
Link to Jeff’s tweet
Link to BP on Kershaw and Roberts
Link to Ben on Roberts in 2019
Link to Meg on the Braves’ brief embarrassment
Link to Ben Clemens on Arozarena
Link to WSJ report about Beane
Link to Ray Ratto on Beane
Link to Susan Slusser on Beane
Link to Brian Phillips on Beane and Morey
Link to story about Renteria
Link to Bradford on MLB and public health officials
Link to Bradford on MLB and community COVID testing
Link to Evan Drellich on fans in the stands
Link to Stephanie Apstein on fans in the stands
Link to Hannah Keyser on fans in the stands
Link to Craig Calcaterra on MLB’s attendance survey
Link to CPBL outfielder video
Link to FanGraphs playoff coverage

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Articles about whether a player is suddenly terrible aren’t exactly standard FanGraphs fare. That’s hardly surprising — players almost never suddenly become terrible. Far more often, they get unlucky a bunch of times in a row, or they were already terrible and everyone suddenly noticed, or they were secretly hurt the whole time.

It pains me, given that, to ask this question that you probably already know the answer to: is Brandon Lowe suddenly terrible? Probably not! I’m telling you the answer now so that you won’t be in suspense, even though let’s be honest here, you wouldn’t be in suspense anyway. Still, he’s been bad this postseason, phenomenally awful. We at least owe it to ourselves to consider whether something happened.

During the regular season, Lowe was awesome. He was an MVP candidate, particularly if, like Craig Edwards, you enjoy rhyming his name with “Mister Plow.” He kept the same ferocity he’d displayed on contact in 2019 and cut down on his strikeouts, which had been the only real thing holding him back before. The result? A 150 wRC+ and 14 homers in only 227 plate appearances, the best hitting line on the Rays and one of the best in baseball overall.

The postseason has been, well, whatever the opposite of that is. Through 12 games, his wRC+ is -10. That’s not a stat you want to be negative. Plus is right there in the name! His home run on Thursday was his first extra-base hit of the playoffs, but even that was a mixed success; it was his only hit of the night, and he struck out twice, which raised his strikeout rate for the postseason to 32.7%.

How often has Lowe had a stretch like this? Exactly never:

Lowe has gone through rough patches, but nothing so extended as this. The short dip on the left comes from before he had 12 games to average, so that doesn’t count. It’s not just the strikeouts, though those clearly aren’t helping. Heck, Lowe struck out at a higher rate for last year as a whole, and still put up a 125 wRC+. Let’s dig deeper. Read the rest of this entry »

On a Braves team that’s now one win away from its first trip to the World Series since 1999, Freddie Freeman has gotten the lion’s share of the attention, at least on the offensive side. This is quite understandable given his MVP-caliber season as well as the big hits he’s come up with thus far in the playoffs, including his homers in Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. While Marcell Ozuna’s bat spoke nearly as loudly during the regular season, the 29-year-old slugger had scuffled in the postseason prior to Thursday night’s Game 4, when he snapped out of an 0-for-9 skid with a four-hit, four-RBI night that included a trio of timely extra-base hits, two of them homers.

Ozuna’s first home run came in the fourth inning at a time when the Braves trailed 1-0. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw had given up some loud contact to that point, but the four hard-hit balls he’d surrendered (exit velocities of 95 mph or higher) all had launch angles of 11 degrees or lower, including the 104.4-mph grounder that Ozuna hit for an inning-ending double play and a 101.1-mph Freeman liner that preceded Ozuna’s second turn at the plate. This time, Ozuna elevated a slider for a towering blast that left the bat at 108.6 mph and traveled an estimated 422 feet:

Whew. The down-and-in slider wasn’t a horrible pitch from Kershaw; in just about every Statcast zone-based breakdown for this season, Ozuna’s actual and expected stats for that area (zone 7) were his lowest. For example: Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 892

While the playoffs rage on, the FanGraphs crew sadly must again turn their attention to former greats. This episode includes reflections on the past, reflections on ourselves, the 1968 Detroit Tigers theme song, and more.

• To lead off the show, Jay Jaffe honors the late Whitey Ford and Joe Morgan. Jay recently wrote about both Ford and Morgan, whose impressive careers and achievements are well worth revisiting. [1:50]
• After that, Jay is joined by Eric Longenhagen to talk more about Morgan’s legacy. The second baseman was undoubtedly a focal point in the sabermetric culture war, inspiring Eric and Jay to reflect on how we discuss ideologies — both within baseball and more broadly — then and now. [14:35]
• Finally, David Laurila is joined by Dan Dickerson, the radio play-by-play voice of the Detroit Tigers. David and Dan discuss topics such as Tigers squads past and present, Miguel Cabrera, and that Magglio Ordonez home run. [46:00]

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If you watch a lot of scary movies, you learn to anticipate when the big jump-scare is about to happen. The music, after ominously trickling along throughout the scene, suddenly stops. The camera does a painfully slow pan around a corner or abruptly whips across the room. You learn to brace yourself when a woman is quietly observing her reflection in a mirror, or when a child peeks through around the door of his clearly-haunted wardrobe. There is a rhythm to these movies, and it mirrors that of Dodgers postseason baseball.

Game 4 of their National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves had all the familiar cues. There was Clayton Kershaw, heading out for the sixth inning of what had been a perfectly solid postseason start. There was manager Dave Roberts, leaving Kershaw in to face the toughest lefty in the opponents’ lineup. There was Roberts — gulp — leaving him in to face another hitter, even after he failed to get the first two out. And there was the Dodgers’ bullpen, searching for water to douse the flames but finding only gasoline, until yet another incredible season was just a game away from turning to ash.

The Braves defeated the Dodgers, 10-2, at Globe Life Field on Thursday to take a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. Atlanta is one win away from clinching its first World Series appearance since 1999, and a shot at winning its first title since 1995. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is on the verge of failing to reach the World Series despite owning the NL’s best regular-season record for a second-straight year and continuing a championship drought that has persisted since 1988.

Braves right-hander Bryse Wilson turned in the best game of his young career, tossing six innings of one-run ball while allowing just one walk and striking out five. The one hit he yielded came on a solo home run by Dodgers designated hitter Edwin Ríos in the third. Despite being a rookie who started just twice during the regular season, Wilson made it difficult for the future Hall of Famer in the other dugout to keep up. For five innings, though, Kershaw did just that. He allowed just one run on a solo homer by Marcell Ozuna, who was DHing, and otherwise scattered three hits and a walk while striking out four. He’d thrown just 71 pitches, making Roberts’ decision to send him back to the mound for the sixth inning a seemingly easy one, even if the Braves were turning the order over for a third time. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a baseball ad on the radio, revisit the topic of how often teams win when they outhomer their opponents, discuss the brand of baseball on display this postseason, share a Stat Blast about the percentage of runs scored on homers and investigate whether all-or-nothing baseball is as problematic as it’s made out to be, then examine a pair of standout postseason umpiring efforts and answer listener emails about whether groundball pitchers might make a comeback and what should constitute a “match point” in baseball.

Audio intro: Cordovas, "The Game"
Audio outro: They Might Be Giants, "I’ve Got a Match"

Link to Ben on home runs this postseason
Link to Ben on learning to accept strikeouts
Link to Ben on October baseball
Link to article about increase in solo homers
Link to Ben on umpire perfect games
Link to Umpire Scorecards on Pat Hoberg
Link to Close Call Sports on John Tumpane
Link to 2015 article on umpires improving
Link to 2016 article on umpires improving
Link to Matt Trueblood on the Dodgers’ bullpen
Link to Bill James on groundball pitchers
Link to article about groundball pitchers being overrated
Link to Seinfeld tweet about the “final strike”
Link to FanGraphs playoff coverage

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It all started, as it so often has in this ALCS, with a homer — the first pitch from Rays opener John Curtiss, a fastball over the plate, was launched into the seats by George Springer. And it ended with a homer from Carlos Correa, crushed to center in the bottom of the ninth — his third ALCS walkoff in the last four seasons. The Astros, for the second day in a row, won a do-or-die game by a single run, the final score again 4-3. And their deficit in the series, once a daunting three games to none, has narrowed all the way to 3-2.

How they got there on the pitching side was a little less familiar than it was on the hitting side. The Astros used seven pitchers over the course of Game 5, the first five of whom were rookies. First on the mound was Luis Garcia, 21 years old, with all of 12.1 major-league innings on his resume. Despite some hard contact — a hard fly ball from Brandon Lowe, a line drive from none other than Randy Arozarena — he got through the first inning without allowing a baserunner. Garcia’s second inning was a little more fraught: he loaded the bases on two walks and a hit batter for Mike Zunino. But Zunino flew out, stranding all three runners. The inning, and Garcia’s postseason debut, ended without incident. Read the rest of this entry »