Last week at Baseball Prospectus, Rob Arthur looked at the rise of advanced defensive positioning since 2015. It turns out that every position has started playing deeper, but — perhaps unsurprisingly — first basemen have moved the least of all. As Arthur writes, “First basemen have barely budged, which makes sense since they are more anchored to the bag.” But this lack of movement feels like a concession that doesn’t necessarily need to be made. The base is fixed, and the defender has to reach it, but a quicker first baseman would be able to stray farther from the anchor. If the lack of an anchor is allowing these other positions to play in more optimal locations, then some of the range that has always been a prerequisite for playing those positions is potentially going to waste. Let’s get some of those more rangy players over to first base, which doesn’t allow for the defender to be so perfectly placed.

The Right-Handed Shift

One of the reasons I’m interested in the positioning of first basemen is how it relates to the current conundrum involving the right-handed shift, about which folks like Tom Tango, Russell Carlton and Ben Lindbergh have written countless words. The short recap is that the publicly available data suggests that the right-handed shift doesn’t really work. And yet, some of the most data-driven teams are the ones that employ the shift the most.

There are a few things that make the right-handed shift different than the more prevalent left-handed one, but what I’m focused on is first base and the existence of that “anchor” that was mentioned earlier. First basemen can only stray off the bag as far as allows them to return safely in time for the throw. Turns out, that isn’t nearly far enough to cover the tendencies of the hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Montgomery put together a solid outing on Wednesday night. In 6.1 innings of work, he struck out six Rays and walked only two. He did get tagged for five hits, but avoided allowing any home runs, which made the whole package work admirably. He gave up three runs, but with a little defensive prowess, things could have gone even better; two of those three were unearned.

That kind of game happens all the time these days. On the other hand, that particular game has never happened before. That exact box score line — 6.1 innings pitched, six strikeouts, two walks, five hits, no homers, one earned run and three total runs — had never occurred in the more than 380,000 starts since 1913, the first year where earned runs were recorded, as James Smyth pointed out:

? Unique Box Score Line Alert ?

Jordan Montgomery 6.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

A first out of more than 1.1 million MLB pitching lines in the regular season or postseason since 1901 (thanks @baseball_ref @Stathead)

— James Smyth (@JamesSmyth621) June 3, 2021

I’ll level with you: I had a hard time believing Smyth at first. That line is so middle-of-the-road. Everything about it feels like a common enough occurrence. There are no truly strange parts in that score, nothing that stands out as an obviously rare feat. An easy example: Carlos Martínez also recorded a unique line on Wednesday. His was altogether stranger: 0.2 innings pitched, one strikeout, four walks, and 10 earned runs without a homer or an unearned run. That just sounds like an unprecedented start. Read the rest of this entry »

Has it been 16 episodes already? It has, as Chin Music returns to help get you through the weekend. The co-host chair gets some Midwest time this week, as good friend and good person C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic joins me from Cincinnati to discuss baseball and other stuff. We begin by talking about the ifs and hows of Major League Baseball’s plans to crack down on sticky stuff before moving to a frank and insightful conversation about media and player access in light of this week’s news from The French Open. Then we are joined by special guest Deesha Thosar, Mets beat writer for The New York Daily News, who provides plenty of great insight into the team, both on and off the field. Then it’s the usual with emails and some discussion of C. Trent’s role as president of the BBWAA before finishing with a Moment of Culture.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by feminist punk icons Spitboy.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 925

On this week’s show, Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens have an extended chat about baseball happenings before eventually going a little off-topic.

The pair discuss what is going on with the surprising San Francisco Giants, as the club exceeds expectations and tries to make the postseason in a very competitive NL West. Dan and Ben look into what is fueling the Giants’ success and whether they should go all in this summer.

They also contemplate a revitalized Kris Bryant and Javier Báez leading the first-place Cubs, whether Tyler O’Neill can keep it up, and the truly incredible Jacob deGrom, who is trying to make history. Ben and Dan also consider intentionally walking the bases loaded and how early you could pinch-hit for your starting pitcher.

Finally, we hear about the legends of Jerry Wombat and Johan Santa before Dan educates Ben on the official drinks that go along with the most famous horse races.

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about why “Zombie Runner,” not “Manfred Man,” remains their preferred term for the automatic runner, zombies in general, position player pitchers vs. pitcher hitters, the benefits of forfeits, the increasing rate of pitcher hitters not attempting to put the ball in play, MLB’s bad timing with NFTs, the minor league sticky substance crackdown, and the death of Mike Marshall and the chances of ever seeing another pitcher like him. Then (42:04) they talk to Ethan Singer, the creator of the @UmpScorecards Twitter account and UmpScorecards.com, about how and why he started tracking umpire accuracy, how his audience grew, why assessing umpire performance is complicated, how his methodology has evolved, accuracy vs. consistency, team-level umpiring metrics, fan anger at umps, what the robo zone could look like, his new-feature plans, and more.

Audio intro: Manfred Mann’s Earth Band, "Runner"
Audio interstitial: The Jazz Butcher, "Zombie Love"
Audio outro: Marbles, "Out of Zone"

Link to Bradley PA
Link to Walker PA
Link to data on pitchers not swinging
Link to story about the NFT bubble
Link to story about Gehrig NFT
Link to story about NFTs’ environmental impact
Link to story about minor league suspensions
Link to Joel Sherman on foreign substances
Link to Passan on Marshall
Link to Russell Carleton on pitching roles
Link to Umpire Scorecards on Twitter
Link to Umpire Scorecards website
Link to Ethan’s website

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These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Santiago Florez, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Bradenton  Age: 21   Org Rank: 36   FV: 40
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K

Notes
We’re starting to enter an uncharted evaluation context for young pitchers. Big league fastbll usage has been trending down over the last several years but breaker-heavy approaches to pitching haven’t been as pervasive in the minors during prospect development. Especially for pitchers like Florez, who are at best on the starter/reliever line, teams generally make an effort to try to develop fastball command that will give the prospect a chance to start. Per Savant, Florez got 20 swings and misses last night, most of them on his curveball, which he threw a ton. Of his 84 pitches, only 27 were fastballs. He threw about a dozen changeups, while the rest (nearly half his total pitches) were curveballs. I have conflicting thoughts around increased breaking ball usage — how much of the improved results generated by more breakers is coming from what is essentially per-pitch stuff quality, how much is from increased unpredictability as we exit the era of “establishing the fastball,” and is there a point where so many breaking balls are being thrown that the unpredictability piece regresses? — but seeing it on a Low-A arm forces me to view his performance in an unfamiliar context as the Pirates have a 21-year-old lean into what he’s already good at rather than try to improve what he’s not. Now, for Florez specifically, taking this approach at this point in his developmental track makes sense because even though he’s only 21, he’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason and a year from now all he and the Pirates may care about is how he gets outs coming out of a big league bullpen, which will feature him throwing a ton of his breaking ball. Read the rest of this entry »

Times are tough in Denver. The biggest stories for the Rockies this year have been their trade of their best player (heavily and rightfully criticized), the resignation of Jeff Bridich, and the relocation of this season’s All-Star Game to Coors Field. Okay, that last one is pretty cool, and the Bridich news was good news for Rockies fans. On the field though, it’s been pretty ugly. The Rockies are fourth in the NL West and on pace to lose 99 games, and they’ve gone just 4–22 on the road with only 63 runs scored. But there’s one player donning the purple and black who might finally be breaking out: Ryan McMahon.

Since coming onto the scene in 2017, McMahon has been the subject of more than a few breakout player articles, including Dan Symborski’s piece on the top 2021 candidates to take a step forward. He’s answered the call so far, serving as the lone bright spot for the Rockies in what has been an otherwise dismal season by slashing .259/.313/.507 with 13 homers and 1.3 WAR. These numbers aren’t especially eye-popping for a player who calls Coors Field home, but offensive numbers have been down across the big leagues this season, and while McMahon has played plenty of corner infield in his career, his primary position has been at second, where the bar is a bit lower.

Before we attempt to answer whether or not the breakout is for real, it’s worth looking at what makes McMahon such a tempting choice to develop into a better big league hitter. A big part of the reason is his raw power. Unless your name is Nick Madrigal, it’s usually going to take some serious power potential to get preseason hype. Prior to the 2018 season, McMahon was ranked third in the Rockies’ system, per Eric Longenhagen’s prospect list, with his 60 raw power as his greatest asset. At the major league level, where his batted ball data is more visible than the minor leagues, McMahon has achieved a maximum exit velocity in the 68th percentile or better each season.

Read the rest of this entry »

In Tuesday’s otherwise lopsided rout by the Phillies, Nick Castellanos collected a pair of hits off Aaron Nola. With that, he extended his hitting streak to 18 games, thus surpassing his personal best and breaking a tie with Jose Altuve for the majors’ longest streak of this season. The Reds’ right fielder isn’t just hot all of a sudden, however. He’s been raking since Opening Day, and entered Thursday with his .361 batting average, .644 slugging percentage, 185 wRC+, and 2.9 WAR all sitting atop the NL leaderboards, a big step up from last year’s disappointing campaign.

The 29-year-old Castellanos, who signed a four-year, $64 million deal with the Reds in January 2020, hit just .225/.298/.486 in his first season in Cincinnati. He did play every game and bopped 14 homers while helping the Reds to their first playoff appearance since 2013, but his hot start (.340/.411/.840 through 14 games) quickly faded. His final 102 wRC+ was his lowest mark since 2015, his 28.5% strikeout rate represented a career high, and all told, his 0.4 WAR made it a pretty forgettable season.

Castellanos turned the page on 2020 by homering and doubling off the Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty on Opening Day and adding three more homers (plus two doubles and a triple) in the Reds’ next five games; he didn’t strike out for the first time until the team’s fifth game of the season. That week was a particularly colorful one, as his hop-skip-bat-flip sequence on Opening Day led to a retaliatory hit-by-pitch the next day, followed by an in-your-face flexing gesture after he came around to score, and then a bench-clearing brawl and a two-game suspension that made the powers that be look like stick-in-the-muds.

As silly as the suspension was, it halted Castellanos’ brief slump; he resumed raking upon returning, collecting 10 hits (including two homers) over his next six games. On May 2, he went 5-for-6 against the Cubs, with two homers as well as a walk-off RBI single in the 10th inning. On May 12, he began his hitting streak by going 2-for-4 with a walk against the Pirates. Over his 18-game jag, he’s hit .464/.532/.710 with three homers in 79 plate appearance, and overall he’s at .361/.416/.644 with 12 homers. Read the rest of this entry »

At the beginning of May, I wrote two articles about the slightly-deadened baseball’s effect on league-wide home run rates. The conclusion was pretty much exactly what you’d expect: A bouncier ball with more drag did reduce home runs, particularly among softer-hit balls at lower launch angles. In 2019, these events were the wall scrapers that barely went out of the yard. In 2021, these events are now doubles and outs, with the increase in fly outs likely contributing (at least somewhat) to baseball’s diminished run environment overall.

There were a handful of outstanding questions that I still had, one of which was the impact of the new baseball on a ballpark-by-ballpark basis. Though league-wide trends are certainly an interesting and informative way to see the effects of a new baseball on run scoring, it is also important to examine in which parks hitters are having a more difficult time getting the ball into the seats. That allows us to understand better how park effects may have been altered to different degrees as a result of MLB’s switch to the new baseball.

But it’s not just the baseball that is contributing here. MLB reportedly added humidors to five stadiums for the 2021 season, bringing the total league-wide to 10. The Rockies, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Mets, and Red Sox already had humidors in their stadiums pre-2021, but which five teams are new to that list has yet to be disclosed. We can only guess which parks now have them, but it is important to keep in mind that the ball is not the only difference.

Also important to remember when looking at ballpark-level data: The players on the home team make a huge difference in determining home run rates. It’s entirely possible that, between 2019 and ’21, a team added home run hitters to its lineup or acquired home run-adverse pitchers for its staff, or the opposite could also be true. To mitigate these effects, I only analyzed a specific slice of fly balls: those hit at an exit velocity at or above 95.0 mph, at an exit velocity below 110.0 mph, and at a launch angle below 30 degrees — the very fly balls most impacted by the new baseball in my prior analysis. I also only included fly balls hit in games on or before May 31 to control for weather effects. (That is why I am comparing 2019 to ’21.)

Read the rest of this entry »