Here’s the honest truth about baseball analysis: Most of the ideas I look into don’t work. That’s mostly hidden under the surface, because it’s not very interesting to read an article about absence of evidence. Hey, did you know that batters who hit very long home runs see no meaningful effect on the rest of their performance that day? I did, because I looked into that at one point, but imagine an article about that and you can kind of see the problem. Read a whole thing looking for a conclusion and find none, and you might be more than a little irritated.

Now that I’ve told you how bad of an idea it is to write about failed ideas, I’d like to introduce you to an article series about ideas that didn’t pan out. I know, I know: I was bemoaning the difficulty of writing such an article just sentences ago. Some failures, however, are more interesting than others, and I’d like to think that I know how to tell the difference. In this intermittent and haphazardly scheduled series, I’ll write about busted ideas that taught me something interesting in their failure, or that simply examine parts of the game that might otherwise escape notice.

In September of this year, I came up with an idea that spent the next month worming its way into my brain. We think of pitch movement as relative to zero, but that’s obviously not true. Sinkers rise more than a spin-less pitch thrown on the same trajectory would; they’re “risers”, in fact. Don’t tell a player that, though, because they’re not comparing these pitches to some meaningless theoretical pitch that no one throws. They’re comparing them to other fastballs, four-seamers to be specific, and if your brain is used to seeing four-seamers, sinkers do indeed sink. Read the rest of this entry »

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my weekly chat since the end of the regular season! While the queue fills, I’ve got a bit of housekeeping….

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Here’s today’s dispatch, on the status of the universal DH and how a number of aging hitters are caught in limbo http://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-status-of-the-universal-…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Here’s yesterday’s piece on the Indians’ plans to trade Francisco Lindor and how they’re complicated by the presence of so many other alternatives on this year’s market and next http://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-and-the-crowd-of-available…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: And, since he’s giving his re-introductory press conference right now, here’s last Friday’s piece on the Red Sox’s rehiring of Alex Cora http://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-inevitable-return-of-alex-cora-to-bosto…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: OK. As we tell our 4-year-old daughter, the question store is open….

Read the rest of this entry »

As if this winter’s free agent market needed anything else to slow it down, the fate of the universal designated hitter has yet to be settled. Like seven-inning doubleheader games and the extra innings runner-on-second rule, usage of the DH in NL games was considered to be part of MLB’s 2020-specific health and safety protocols rather than a permanent change, and so the subject must be revisited in talks between the players’ union and owners. Given the need for Senior Circuit teams to adapt their rosters accordingly, and for a number of free agents to generate competitive bidding and decide their destinations, it’s a decision that should be made as soon as possible, but… it’s complicated.

The possibility of using the DH in the NL for the 2020 season didn’t arise until mid-May, about two months after the coronavirus pandemic forced teams to shut down spring training. Not until late June, when the Major League Baseball Players Association agreed to return for a 60-game season, was the decision finalized; at that point a number of revised rules were shoehorned into the 2020 Operations Manual, whether or not they were directly related to player health and safety. Those rules, which “shall apply during the 2020 championship season and postseason only,” included:

• The universal DH.
• The extra-innings rule that begins each half-inning after the ninth with a runner on second base.
• An override of the previously introduced rule limiting the usage of position players as pitchers to extra innings or depending upon the score deficit
• The three-batter minimum rule for pitchers.
• The continuation of suspended games shorter than five innings.
• The allowance for pitchers to carry a wet rag in their back pocket for the purpose of providing moisture as a substitute for licking fingers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a chart I used for a story I wrote last week:

I came across this while writing about Houston Astros left-hander Brooks Raley, whose 2020 season is marked by the dot in yellow. But had you come across this chart in the wild, Raley’s dot wouldn’t be the one that gets your attention. That would be the dot in the upper left, isolated all by itself with baseball’s best whiff rate and one of its lowest exit velocities allowed. If you’re the dot in yellow, it means you had a sneakily good year. If you’re the one off by itself, you’re probably one of the best pitchers in baseball.

That lonesome dot in the corner belongs to Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Devin Williams, who won the National League Rookie of the Year Award on Monday. Among the finalists he defeated for the award were a former third overall pick who reached based 40% of the time in his debut and an out-of-nowhere breakout utility player who helped lead his team to its first playoff appearance in 14 years. From where I sit, the decision shouldn’t have been all that controversial. Read the rest of this entry »

The first ZiPS team projection for 2021 goes live on Wednesday, and as usual, this is a good place to give reminders about what ZiPS is, what ZiPS is trying to do, and — perhaps most importantly — what ZiPS is not.

ZiPS is a computer projection system, developed by me in 2002–04 and which officially went live for the ’04 season. The origin of ZiPS is similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey, coming from discussions I had with Chris Dial, one of my best friends and a fellow stat nerd, in the late 1990s (my first interaction with Chris involved me being called an expletive!). ZiPS moved quickly from its original inception as a fairly simple projection system: It now does a lot more and uses a lot more data than I ever envisioned 20 years ago. At its core, however, it’s still doing two basic tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button; and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players.

ZiPS uses multi-year statistics, with more recent seasons weighted more heavily; in the beginning, all the statistics received the same yearly weighting, but eventually, this became more varied based on additional research. Research is a big part of ZiPS, and every year, I run literally hundreds of studies on various aspects of the system to determine their predictive value and better calibrate the player baselines. What started with the data available in 2002 has expanded considerably: Basic hit, velocity, and pitch data began playing a larger role starting in ’13; and data derived from StatCast has been included in recent years as I got a handle on the predictive value and impact of those numbers on existing models. I believe in cautious, conservative design, so data is only included once I have confidence in improved accuracy; there are always builds of ZiPS that are still a couple of years away. Additional internal ZiPS tools like zBABIP, zHR, zBB, and zSO are used to better establish baseline expectations for players. These stats work similarly to the various flavors of “x” stats, with the z standing for something I’d wager you’ve already figured out! Read the rest of this entry »

I had the honor of voting for this year’s American League Rookie of the Year award, and the biggest challenge was — not unpredictably — how to weigh performances over a 60-game season. Adding a layer of difficulty was the fact that some of the best numbers were put up by players who weren’t with their team for the duration of the campaign.

Willi Castro and Ryan Mountcastle excelled with the bat — especially Castro — but each had only 140 plate appearances. Sean Murphy, who augmented his solid offense with strong defense behind the plate, had exactly that same number. Are 140 plate appearances enough in a truncated campaign? Following a fair bit of deliberation, I decided that they aren’t. As a result, all three players fell off my consideration list.

And then there were the pitchers. Not a single rookie in the junior circuit threw as many as 65 innings, and the most dominant of the bunch totaled just 27 frames. This made for an especially difficult dilemma. Would it be reasonable to give one of my three votes to a lights-out pitcher whose relative workload was akin to that of the position players I’d chosen to discount? Moreover, had any of the higher-innings hurlers done enough to preclude me from making what amounts to a contradictory choice? We’ll get to that in a moment. Read the rest of this entry »

As the offseason moves forward, we hear mostly about teams reining in spending. Searching out aggressive teams is a bit more difficult, particularly when there’s little benefit in broadcasting those intentions. But one team expected to be aggressive is San Francisco, with Farhan Zaidi entering his third winter as president and the club trying to end a streak of four straight losing campaigns. The Giants are lacking a bit in talent on paper, but some recent fliers have worked out, top prospect Joey Bart received some MLB experience, and a few of the holdovers from the more competitive squads of years previous showed they still have something left. Whether it’s possible to make a big leap forward in one offseason is the big question.

San Francisco acquitted itself fairly well in 2020, missing out on the expanded playoffs due to a lost tiebreaker. The Giants scored more runs than they allowed, and by BaseRuns (stripping out sequencing in results), they were the fourth-best team in the National League. They excelled on the position-player side, where their 9.8 WAR ranked sixth in baseball. But what they did in a 60-game sample in 2020 isn’t likely to carry over into next season. Here are the offensive numbers for Giants with at least 100 plate appearances this past season: Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Jeff Luhnow’s lawsuit against the Astros and Max Muncy’s and Joe Kelly’s comments about MLB’s permeable postseason quasi-bubble, then conduct their sixth annual free-agent-contract over/under draft.

Audio intro: The Clash, "All the Young Punks (New Boots and Contracts)"
Audio outro: The Electric Prunes, "Sold to the Highest Bidder"

Link to L.A. Times Luhnow lawsuit story
Link to The Athletic Luhnow lawsuit story
Link to Muncy’s comments about Turner
Link to Kelly’s comments about Turner
Link to MLB Trade Rumors’ top 50 free agents ranking
Link to FanGraphs’ top 50 free agents ranking
Link to Jay Jaffe on the crowded shortstop market
Link to EW drafts and competitions spreadsheet

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