Reds Do Something, Add Sean Doolittle

After breaking apart their bullpen in an effort to cut costs, the Reds took a step towards rebuilding it on Tuesday, agreeing to terms with 34-year-old lefty Sean Doolittle on a one-year deal with a base salary of $1.5 million plus as-yet-unspecified incentives. For as modest an expenditure as it is, Doolittle is just the second major league free agent the Reds have signed this winter from outside the organization (Kyle Farmer was signed to a new major league deal after previously being non-tendered). The two-time All-Star has ample experience closing, something in short supply on the Reds’ current roster, but in order to return to any kind of high-leverage duty, he’ll need to rebound from what was largely a lost season.

Doolittle, who spent his past 3 1/2 seasons with the Nationals, made just 11 appearances totaling 7.2 innings in 2020. He landed on the Injured List twice, first missing nearly three weeks in August due to inflammation in his right knee, and then being shelved for the remainder of the season after straining an oblique muscle in mid-appearance on September 10. For what it’s worth — perhaps not much given the sample sizes, though it merits a look to compare to his track record — his average fastball velocity and performance had been trending upwards after the first IL stint, as you can see here:

Doolittle didn’t allow a run over his final six appearances, after being scored upon in four out of five previously, so there’s that, a point to which we’ll return.

Of greater concern is whether the southpaw can regain something close to his 2012-18 form or whether 2019 more accurately represents his current ability. Drafted out of the University of Virginia by the A’s in 2007 and converted from a first baseman into a pitcher four years later, he was the majors’ seventh-most valuable reliever and third-most valuable lefty (after Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller) according to WAR during those first seven seasons, a ranking all the more impressive given that his 328 innings in that span was the lowest total of any reliever in the top 10. Injuries, including shoulder strains in 2015, ’16, and ’17, an intercostal strain in ’14, and recurrent inflammation in his left toe in ’18, limited him to averages of 47 appearances and 47 innings, but when he pitched, he was generally quite effective. His 2.40 FIP, 4.8% walk rate, and 26.1% K-BB% during that span all ranked among the majors’ top 10 among relievers.

Doolittle’s 2019 was another story. While his 63 appearances was his highest total since 2013 and his 60 innings his highest since ’14, his 4.05 ERA and 4.25 FIP were both career worsts, as was his 1.65 homers per nine. He lost his job as closer in September, though he did save two games while allowing just two runs in 10.1 innings during the Nationals’ run to a championship.

That run did not wipe away concerns about Doolittle’s 2019 falloff. While his average fastball velocity only dipped by a bit (from 93.9 mph to 93.5), his swinging strike rate plummeted from 16.8% to 12.1%, and his drop from a 36.8% strikeout rate to a 25.4% rate was the majors’ largest among pitchers with 40 innings in each season. Likewise, his 2018-19 jump in average exit velocity, from 84.4 mph to 90.9 mph, was the majors’ largest.

Doolittle’s approach has depended on throwing a steady diet of well-located high fastballs. From 2018 to ’19, his four-seamer’s velo, movement, spin rate, and usage rage were all more or less unchanged according to Statcast, and the same is true for his location heat maps via our data. But where batters managed just a .142 average and .220 slugging percentage against the heater in 2018, they whacked it for a .259 average and .468 slugging percentage in ’19. In September of the latter season, Doolittle told NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas that his decline owed to mechanical issues that cost him deception:

He looked for answers in the video from April and May of 2018. What he promptly saw was a more upright version of himself. Doolittle realized he was “top-heavy” because his shoulders curled and his momentum went toward first base instead of home plate. Such movement causes both the deception from and speed of his fastball to dwindle.

That theme resurfaced during Doolittle’s first IL stint in 2020, though as he said in late August, “I had a lot of ideas of things I was trying to fix. Ideas about adjustments I needed to make. But my body wasn’t cooperating. Certainly not on the timeline I wanted it to.”

Doolittle did make a notable change within the sliver of his 2020 performance, more than doubling the usage of his slider, from 5.8% to 12.6% (batters didn’t get a single hit off of it, though they put just six into play). It wouldn’t be a surprise if he retains that revised approach while working Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson.

Doolittle initially planned to spend the offseason in Seattle, working on his mechanics at Driveline, but he had a change of plans:

This tweet is now getting shared by some Cincinnati folks, so I want to clarify: This was Sean Doolittle's plan at the time, but he instead went to Tempe to rehab his oblique and work at another facility. Please share that, too! https://t.co/k3EICywETa

— Jesse Dougherty (@dougherty_jesse) February 2, 2021

Assuming he’s healthy, the opportunity for Doolittle to take on a late-game role is clearly there, because the Reds have been cutting costs left and right, leaving them with a young and relatively inexperienced bullpen corps, not to mention a gaping hole at shortstop after losing out on Didi Gregorius. On December 2, they non-tendered late-season pickup Archie Bradley, though he only netted a one-year, $6 million deal from the Phillies. A week later, they traded Raisel Iglesias — who was due to make $9.125 million — and future considerations to the Angels for righty Noé Ramirez. Prior to Doolittle, the only major league free agent they had added was Edgar Ernesto Garcia, owner of a 6.17 ERA and 7.16 FIP in 42.1 major league innings. Of the seven other pitchers projected to start the season in Cincinnati’s bullpen, Ramirez and the lefty Amir Garrett are the only two who are even arbitration eligible, while the other five (righties Tejay Antone, José De León, Jeff Hoffman, Sal Romano, and Lucas Sims) have less than three years of service time. Romano has two major league saves to his credit, with Garcia, Garrett, Ramirez, and Sims each having one apiece.

Doolittle, with 111 career saves and eight-plus years of service time, is grizzled by comparison, though it bears noting that previous experience closing isn’t a prerequisite to close. Garrett and Sims were considered two of the leading candidates to do so before Doolittle signed, with Michael Lorenzen possibly in the mix as well if he doesn’t win a rotation spot. The odds of them adding another big piece to the bullpen appear long unless the team can sign them for peanuts. They’ve added a lot of depth via minor league deals, such as lfties Jesse Biddle and Josh Osich, and the team recently made minor trades to add Cionel Pérez and Brandon Bailey from Houston, Hector Perez from Toronto, and Art Warren from Texas. None of them are threats to close, though.

Assuming he does make the team, Doolittle brings with him a significant presence that goes beyond his resumé as an All-Star and a champion. He’s a player who’s active beyond the diamond; in Washington he worked with veterans, the LGBTQ community and youth baseball. Though his Twitter feed has gone mostly dormant, he’s outspoken on matters ranging from player safety amid the coronavirus pandemic to inclusivity and racial inequality. He’s a leader and a fine example for his teammates and fellow players around the league, and the sport can always use that.

Those soft factors won’t have nearly as much bearing on the Reds’ season as his pitching will. They do make it all the easier to root for Doolittle to get back to doing that voodoo that he’s done so well, and the Reds could certainly use that.