Which Teams Could Even Trade for Lindor and Ramirez?
(Photo: Erik Drost)
Last week, I took up the mantle from Dave Cameron and published this site’s 11th annual Trade Value series. If you’re new to the concept, the Trade Value series represents an attempt to rank the most valuable assets in baseball, accounting for each player’s current skill level, age, and health while factoring in controllable years or contract status (with lots of advice from scouts and execs). Few, if any, of the players are likely to be traded in reality; however, the rankings represent an opportunity to see how the industry is and isn’t valuing players.
An unusual thing happened in this year’s series — namely, the top two spots in the rankings went to a pair teammates, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. By my reckoning, the combined eight years for which their contracts are controlled by Cleveland are worth around $385 million*. They’re incredibly valuable.
*To arrive at this figure, I used ZiPS projected WAR, projected dollar-per-WAR inflation, discounted values for years further into the future, and a linear concept of dollar-per-WAR. This is more of a ballpark number since clubs on either extreme of the payroll spectrum may value each win much more or less than the average team that’s assumed in this sort of calculation.
In the wake of this year’s edition, I began thinking: would any clubs have sufficient ammunition for Cleveland even to consider a possible trade of Lindor and Ramirez? As with the Trade Value series itself, this is mostly a hypothetical question. The Indians, as a contending club, have little incentive to deal two of the majors’ best players. Still, I was curious if any club could put together enough assets even to make it possible.
I wanted to answer the question with some measure of reality, so a package of 30 players with a value of $386 million isn’t acceptable as an offer in this scenario. On the other side of the ledger, lining up 10 solid assets probably wouldn’t make sense for the club acquiring Lindor and Ramirez. They would be clearing out all their quality depth for two players, and no team has that much quality, controllable depth. The Indians are a competing team, so trading for significant non MLB-ready assets with their two best players doesn’t really make sense.
Cleveland has some intangible value to both players, given their homegrown roots, just like the Angels are aware that they would get awful PR even if they found a “fair” trade of Mike Trout. For this exercise, we’re ignoring those emotions and PR, assuming the Indians are cold, rational actors.
That means we’re looking for a package that exceeds $385 million in as few assets as possible, emotions aside for both clubs, as the bar to clear to start a hypothetical conversation (that will never happen). I’ve ranked Cleveland’s options loosely and subjectively, based on the offer and amount of alternative options.
1. New York Yankees
RF Aaron Judge, No. 3 ranking, 4.5 years of control
RHP Luis Severino, No. 10, 4.5
SS Gleyber Torres, No. 20, 6.5
The Yankees are first by a mile in this race: there’s still C Gary Sanchez, 3B Miguel Andujar, two shorter-term options in SS Didi Gregorius and CF Aaron Hicks, the whole bullpen, etc. You could argue in this scenario that the Indians would want a second infield replacement in either Gregorius or Andujar, in which case Cleveland could send something else back the Yankees way. That said, we aren’t trying to make the deal super realistic — I don’t see why the Yankees or any below team would do these deals — it’s more of a math problem.
2. Houston Astros
SS Carlos Correa, No. 5, 3.5
SS Alex Bregman, No. 7, 4.5
CF George Springer, No. 27, 2.5
The Astros have RF Kyle Tucker (No. 50) and also give a possibly more attractive deal with direct, elite replacements for Cleveland along with an elite outfielder, which fills one of the weaker spots in their lineup for the immediate, contending future. This three-player package doesn’t have the controllable years of the Yankees’ package, so it’s a little less attractive.
3. Atlanta Braves
1B Freddie Freeman No. 9, 3.5
SS Ozzie Albies No. 15, 5.5
CF Ronald Acuna No. 17, 6.5
Depending on your definition of MLB-ready, the Braves (like the Yankees) have a wealth of mid-tier assets in 3B Johan Camargo (NR), CF Ender Inciarte (HM), LHR A.J. Minter (NR), LHP Sean Newcomb (HM), and SS Dansby Swanson (NR). In addition, the top of their prospect list, which includes a number of players in the upper levels that could be considered MLB-ready or soon-to-be: LHP Kolby Allard, LHP Max Fried, LHP Luiz Gohara, 3B Austin Riley, RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Touki Toussaint, RHP Bryse Wilson, and RHP Kyle Wright.
4. Boston Red Sox
CF Mookie Betts No. 6, 2.5
RF Andrew Benintendi No. 14, 4.5
LHS Chris Sale No. 23, 1.5
This doesn’t include a ton of controllable years, nor a replacement at shortstop or third base, but it’s a very strong package, even without 3B Rafael Devers (No. 45) and SS Xander Bogaerts (NR) included.
5. Washington Nationals
SS Trea Turner No. 8, 4.5
RF Juan Soto No. 19, 6.5
CF Victor Robles No. 44, 6.5
The Nationals still have plenty more to work with in a deal, like a short-term 3B Anthony Rendon (NR) and a well-compensated RHS Max Scherzer (No. 41), but Cleveland would have to choose between getting less control, less established performance or more added salary.
Honorable Mentions
Among the honorable-mention clubs that could probably make an attractive enough package for Cleveland, it would clearly take more than three players, gets even more unrealistic for the other team, or the depth of total options to consider is very short:
Los Angeles Angels
The top three here of CF Mike Trout (No. 4), RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani (No. 30), and SS Andrelton Simmons (No. 37) is strong, but it’s unclear what the next piece would be. Maybe Cleveland doesn’t mind waiting on the upside of RF Jo Adell (NR) or they want another starter, like lefties Andrew Heaney (NR) or Tyler Skaggs (NR). There would be some added value here — even without accounting for the value of the players — by acquiring the best player in baseball, the top young talent from Japan, and arguably the best defender of this generation.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have a strong top three assets in SS Corey Seager (No. 13), 1B Cody Bellinger (No. 26), and RHP Walker Buehler (No. 40), with RF Alex Verdugo (NR) as probably the next piece, but this team is composed more of well-paid vets or role players who aren’t seen as premium assets per se.
Chicago Cubs
Obviously with 3B Kris Bryant (No. 11), C Willson Contreras (No. 28), 1B Anthony Rizzo (No. 38), 2B Javier Baez (HM),SS Addison Russell (HM), and 1B Kyle Schwarber (HM), there’s plenty of talent here. It just isn’t elite enough asset-wise to make with just three players.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philly has another strong top-50 caliber top three in RHP Aaron Nola (No. 21), 1B Rhys Hoskins (No. 34), and CF Odubel Herrera (No. 43) with additional pieces that include mostly former prospects who haven’t quite broken out yet at the big-league level.
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
Wherever in heaven or hell he is, the late Frank (Trader) Lane ihas to be smiling.
General Manager of the Seattle Mariners, so purgatory.
Even a three-team deal (where each of the other two teams got one of Lindor and Ramirez) would look insane. Especially since those teams might need to acquire other valuable pieces first before sending them to Cleveland.
Rest of Career who has more WAR:
Lindor/Ramirez
or
Correa/Bregman
I think the question you have to ask yourself is do you believe that this is a realistic benchmark for the production of both Ramirez and Bregman. I don’t, I think both are having career years, Bregman is not a 30 HR guy not to me anyways nor can Ramirez be as good as Trout is year after year. I think they both are going to end up as good players over their career just not great players. That leads us to Lindor and Correa, Correa has the higher ceiling but has yet to reach it and has had quite a few injuries so far. Lindor on the other had has been consistent and healthy so far in his short career. In the end I think Lindor is the better player as he will be more consistent but Correa will have higher peaks. My answer is Lindor and Ramirez, having more to do with Lindor’s abilities rather than Ramirez’s.
Great point. Whenever you’re considering any sort of hypothetical about relative player value, it’s really important to make sure you check in with your own subjective opinions and then treat those as the best possible source of information. It’s why I assume every single projection I’ve ever entered here blows steamer/Zips/KATOH/etc. out of the water. I don’t have to go back and check, because I already know.
Lindor’s bat has been rather volatile for his career and nobody thought he was a 20 HR guy much less a 40 HR guy which is close to his pace this year. if you believe Correa’s injuries have been random and he isn’t brittle then I like the certainty of his bat better.
I think correas bat might be better but he is also big and might have to move position in his late 20s.
Lindor is already a better defender and with his small body I could see him staying good at short until his mid 30s like vizquel if he stays healthy.
I think you are reading the scouting reports, not looking at the players on the field. What needs to be said about Ramirez? If this is a career year then he is having three in a row. That third place finish in last year’s MVP vote wasn’t a mirage. Admittedly Ramirez has to perform at this level for a few more years, but he has put up three HOF caliber years in a row. Even Mookie is not Trout, but Ramirez is staking a claim to be in the conversation about who is the second best player in the game. Lindor didn’t hit 20 HR’s last year, he hit 33 and is heading for more than that this year. Correa hasn’t hit more than 24. The question of who is going to have the higher peaks might be debatable. Lindor is at least an equal offensive player. For an analogy, when Betts and Bogaerts were both coming up through the Red Sox system the industry could not accept the idea that Betts was the real power hitter when the eye test, and the numbers also, showed that Betts technique was clearly more geared for power. Lindor has also fooled the experts and when you add in the defense the gap over Correa widens significantly.
Correa is 10 months younger than Lindor and has a career wRC+ that is 10 points higher. They are not equal offensive players. If you’re using seasonal HR totals as your justification for such a belief, that’s probably why you think the experts are fools.
That’s fair, but Lindor also provides a lot more value on the bases and on defense. They have both been up in the majors for roughly 3 3/4 seasons, but Lindor has 500 more PA because of Correa’s injuries. Lindor has a 5.0 WAR lead so far and Correa isn’t even playing yet.
Sneaky attempt to twist what i said. The front office of every team employs a large number of people who know more about baseball than I do and I respect them, but even the best do not see everything that is coming. I can easily defend my position by saying that I do not believe there was a single qualified baseball executive, scout or personnel director, all of whom I willingly call experts, who predicted that Francisco Lindor would ever hit 33 HR’s in a season then do something very comparable the next season. That does not, in any way, denigrate these people but I think it is safe to say they were all fooled.
Fan meltdown and FO ego aside, I’m not sure that Houston would even do a Bregman/Correa deal for Ramirez/Lindor. Much less throwing Springer in.
Seems like splitting hairs. A lot of variability in future value with many scenarios where the HOU duo comes out ahead.
Is the sub-headline a Royal Tenenbaums reference? A trade of either or both of these guys would be about as likely as Custer having survived Little Big Horn.
Everyone knows Custer died at Little Bighorn
Quoting Eli Cash was baddass
Ya but what this article presupposes is: maybe he didn’t?
Dipoto is gonna have to really amp up his game to enter this derby.
I love this “math problem.”
I bought OOTP a few years ago and created a few fun scenarios- I wonder if they have a similar trade value system in place. The game as I understand it has three sets of statistics: prospect evaluation (which vary from scout to scout and scouting director to scouting director), actual performance, and a secret set of definitive numbers their metrics are based upon, that are secret from the player unless they enter commissioner mode.
I wonder if they have a similar system in place, or if they’d partner with website like fangraphs to develop programming along the lines of these thought exercises! I’m sure there are plenty of OOTP devotees that would be in a place to answer, FanGraphs is such a natural crossover.
Oh man, I’ve been working on a suggestion to post to the OOTP forums about how pitches develop using data from THE BOARD, so this is right up my alley.
Honestly, the trade AI is not great, I’ve seen guys like Acuna get traded for players that are 50 CV, but hoping to bring articles like these to the attention of the devs so they can improve it!
Gleyber Torres, 6.5 years of control – brings a smile to my face
Lemme, guess, you’re a Cleveland fan, aren’t you?
Aside from the other real-world issues that Kiley alludes to, you can pretty easily create surplus value just by eating the cost on an enormous contract. So, for example, you could potentially create a ton of value by eating most of Max Scherzer’s deal.
I don’t know why you would do this, but then again, if it’s just a math problem, these scenarios are also on the table.
True, but Cleveland doesn’t have many huge/terrible contracts that one can eat to create value.
I’m confused. Are you saying that the net value of Scherzer’s contract is negative?
No, I’m saying that Max Scherzer would have a lot more value to Cleveland if Washington was still paying the salary.
Just one example, though. You could do that with almost any player better than Albert Pujols and create positive surplus value for Cleveland.
To expand this further, here are the list of the players with the most remaining cash on their contracts:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/cumulative-cash-remaining/
It might be tricky to do this with Votto or Stanton or Altuve because of the no-trade clauses, but if they were free they’d provide a ton of value. But you could pay down the rest of Strasburg’s or Freeman’s contract to create surplus value in a trade.
This is where it could get really interesting except all of the owners are essentially honoring the concept of the game. With Loria finally out of the picture we don’t have anything approaching the Calvin Griffith-style cheapskate who would be happy to use modern valuation metrics to trade his cost-controlled talent for a whole team full of average-ish players he didn’t have to pay.
It’s not that they’re gone totally though – I’m pretty sure it’s only the salary floor that’s keeping Eugene Melnyk from making that trade in the NHL this very minute.
That Astros one is very interesting. Who would say no? Indians would downgrade short term at SS and 3rd but there’s the chance both Bregman and Correa catch up to Ramirez and Lindor. And the Indians badly need help in the outfield. Meanwhile the Astros get a little better for the next couple years and have a chance to add to their trophy collection.
Interesting for sure, but the Indians say no. They upgrade OF for two years but sacrifice years, money, talent, and durability in the infield. That’s an impossible deal for a small-market team to make.
I would say the Astros would also be a vehement no regarding this trade. Because this trade is clearly a present for future trade. Less control years but more return in the next 2.5 years before Springer FA. And the Astros are looking to maximize their near future window with Verlander somehow still not aging and Cole under team control next year. Not to mention Morton and Keuchel will be FAs after this season.
The extra team control and cost control, while insanely valuable, isn’t as valuable to the Astros when compared to maximizing their contending window today. But I guess that’s why these trades are so hypothetical even beyond the human aspects. The Indians and the Astros have similar goals and are looking for similar things.
Good points. The reality is both teams probably say no, which is a perfect illustration of why these kinds of deals never happen (without even getting to the fan reaction issue).
I think we need some fake context in order to properly create these fake trades. The math problem, right now, is simply about total value. We need direction as well.
Is Cleveland trying to get better today by consolidating future value into 2018 or 19 production? If so then they could turn surplus value into today production by saying to a trade partner, “We want [productive but expensive players X, Y, and Z] and we also want you to pay their salary”
Or are they jump starting a rebuild by selling medium term value for as many top prospects as they can house under one roof? If San Diego decided to buy a new pitching staff via free agency this offseason, for example, and offered literally their entire farm system to CLE for Ramirez and Lindor, would it move this fake needle?
This article ignores the fact that, unlike just specific assets, teams making trades can eat money to increase the value of their trade package.
What would, say, Giancarlo Stanton’s trade value be if the Yankees agreed to eat $220 million of his remaining contract?
This comment ignores the fact that the Yankees would be using $220 million dollars of their own money to eat $220 million dollars of the contract.
It really, really doesn’t. It specifically incorporates that into it.
The question then becomes, what is the trade value of ten years of Giancarlo Stanton getting paid league minimum? It’s certainly more than three years of Francisco Lindor in arbitration, for example.
This comment completely ignores the fact that big league clubs often throw in money to offset part of a player’s contract to boost that player’s trade value. you’re obviously new to this kinda stuff so we’ll go easy on you
Realistically, this will never happen. But scoff if you like (and you stated, a Trout trade is also unlikely, but actually diablo.(sic). it could happen, if the
the stars collide, I mean align…,
We need, nay, we deserve , to see that scenario.
Great, fun post. But I would also call it a “gulp, gag, gasp” one, as teams 1-5 fans gulp, gasp and gag on all that talent going out the door.
It’s sad to see this site being reduced to these kind of shit pieces.
It’s sad to see comments like these. You may not appreciate it, but I thought the article was fascinating.
As obviously hypothetical as these are, I think it’d be entertaining to see the full ‘rankings’ on this. IE how fast can each team get to that magic 385 number? Imagine how many pieces it would take for the worst teams/farms
The Orioles lolol. I wonder how many players it would take for them to reach that number
I think it’s really a fantastic concept to metriculate trade value in a mathmatical structure. There’s so much subjectivity in how value is perceived and for a lot of these “even” trades I find myself looking at one of the teams as a winner or loser
“Well, everyone knows Custer died at Little Bighorn. What this book presupposes is… maybe he didn’t” – Eli Cash, The Royal Tenenbaums.
bregman is listed as a SS above. He’s not even close. Def metric shows he is a sub par 3B, no way he can play ss without being a liability.
I’m not sure you know how defensive metrics work, it takes a long time for them to stabilize. UZR has him negative for his career but DRS has him above average. In addition, he has played a significant number of innings at SS already, not even counting that he was a SS all through the minors. So again, how is he not even close to being a SS?
Um, what? He’s at -3 at SS for his career and +1 at 3B, due entirely to a tiny sample in 2016 that was somehow +5. I think the 1800+ innings at 3b since then (when he has been -3 and -1) are more likely to be an accurate portrayal of his ability. So, in reality, he’s below average at SS and averageish, maybe, at 3b according to DRS. And by UZR he’s WAY below average. The only way to think Bregman is anything other than below average is to believe the following:
1) UZR is 100% wrong and DRS is 100% right
2) The 300 innings he had at 3b in 2016 are more accurate than the 1800+ since then
Ramirez is also probably below average at SS, despite a +2 DRS there. But he’s average or better than average at 2B, and way above average at 3B, something you can’t say about Bregman.
This is a really fun thinkpiece, and even with your disclaimers you’ll probably get a bunch of garbage comments about “MY TEAM WOULD NEVER DO THAT” or “TROUT THIS TROUT THAT”. Just wanted to let you know this is good, fun hypothetical stuff and your time, effort, experience, and thought process are valued. Keep up the good work.
There should be an article series written on the least valuable assets in baseball, and then a follow-up hypothetical trade article like this one. Who has enough negative assets to deal for the Wilpons?