The Angels and Brewers recently made a trade, with Milwaukee ending up with Jett Bandy. I’m going to guess you didn’t linger on the deal, if you heard about it at all. It’s not a move that’s going to change the landscape of either league. But I saw an interesting tweet on Tuesday:

David Stearns says Bandy has plus raw power that hasn’t necessarily shown up in his stats. Playing time split with Susac/Pina remains TBD.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) December 13, 2016

Jett Bandy: plus raw power! But for the most part invisible, at present. This is fairly typical scout-speak, and if you just concentrate on Bandy’s profile, there could be something there. He’s an extreme fly-ball hitter, and he stands 6’4. He turns 27 in March. He could be a really strong guy.

Thinking about the tweet, however, got me thinking about Statcast. What might we be able to learn about raw power from baseball’s new tracking technology?

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When MLB and the Player’s Association agreed to the terms of a new CBA, the most substantial changes came in the rules governing the acquisition of players from other countries. The replacement of the bonus pools with a hard cap on bonus allocations was the big story, but, pretty quickly, people realized that a smaller change — raising the age of players exempt from the bonus pool system from 23 to 25 — could have a major impact on one of the world’s best players.

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Projected standings in December have little value beyond serving as a conversation starter. By our depth charts, remaining free agents are still projected to accumulate more than 50 WAR this season. Consequently, projected standings will continue to change over the rest of the winter as more signings and trades occur. As I said, though, they’re good conversation starters, and one of the more interesting conversations they’ve started this winter revolves around whether or not the Angels might actually be good in 2017.

As things stand right now, the Angels are projected to go 85-77 and finish second in the AL West behind the Astros. Not only that, but those projected 85 wins represent the fourth-highest projected total in all the American League. Does that mean it’s time to start printing up postseason tickets in Anaheim? Of course not. It’s possible, however — even in the middle of the offseason — to get a sense of current roster strengths and weaknesses from the depth charts that appear here. That’s true of every team.

Take a look at the Angels’ depth chart, for example, and you’ll find that they’re doing A-OK in center field thanks to Mike Trout, but that left field is a bit of a weak spot due to the comparatively limited projected production of Cameron Maybin. That’s certainly a conclusion which passes the sniff test.

However, even the use of projections to diagnose roster weaknesses can be misleading. The Angels’ starting rotation currently profiles to finish almost exactly in the middle of the pack among major-league teams — 16th out of 30 — which would represent a significant improvement for one of the league’s worst rotations of the 2016 season. While noting this potential for improvement, though, it’s important to recognize the unavoidable potential for deception in assigning one clean, round number to projected numbers — numbers, that is, which disguise an inherent degree of uncertainty. If Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, and Tyler Skaggs are healthy and productive then, sure, the team is in good position to field an improved starting rotation. As Jeff Sullivan pointed out at the start of the offseason, however, all three of those pitchers carry significant health question marks.

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Bryan Price doesn’t believe in limiting pitchers. That much is clear based on his response to a question I posed during last week’s Winter Meetings. I asked the Cincinnati Reds manager — and former minor- and major-league pitching coach — if there are any changes he’d like to see in the way the organization develops pitchers.

I expected a more cautious answer than I received. Rather than pussyfoot, Price proffered a strong opinion. The way he sees it, babying pitchers in the minor leagues compromises their ability to work deep into games once they reach Cincinnati. Not only that, it can hinder their chances of becoming a top-notch starter.

Note: Price’s comments, which were delivered in a group setting, have been edited for clarity and continuity.

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Bryan Price on developing pitchers: “The big challenge for me, personally, is a world where we want pitchers to throw less. I think they need to throw more. And not just necessarily bulk innings; I think pitchers need to throw more on the side. We have pitchers come through our system who throw bullpen sides of 25 to 30 pitches when we get them. I would like to see them have a bigger workload on their side days. I would like to see some of them throw twice between starts. I would like to see us build our starting pitchers to where they can carry a heavier workload in the minor leagues.

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While we don’t entirely understand the significance of exit velocity yet or how important that sort of data might be, here’s one aspect of it that does appear to be true: the higher the exit velocity, the greater the production to which it will lead.

Armed with that knowledge, I developed a theory — namely, that players who had recorded high exit velocities, but poor production numbers, could expect to see better results going forward. I suspected, conversely, that players who’d recorded low exit velocities and strong production numbers could expect to do worse. I first tested this theory in February, using 2015 data, and it mostly rang true. With 2016 in the books, we have another season’s worth of data to test.

Back in early August, I identified a collection of players with whom to test thistheory. The table below (from that post) features the players who outperformed their exit velocities over the first half of the season. As in the past, this is how I determined if a player was over- or under-performing:

I created IQ-type scores for exit velocity and wOBA from the first half of last season based on the averages of the 130 players in the sample. In each case, I assigned a figure of 100 to the sample’s average and then, for each standard deviation (SD) up or down, added or subtracted 15 points.

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The Pirates almost traded Andrew McCutchen. That’s all anyone could really think about when McCutchen was present at the Pirates’ annual PirateFest, the Saturday after the end of the winter meetings. Maybe the public never should’ve had any idea in the first place, but teams leak information, and the McCutchen rumors ran rampant. It made the occasion a little awkward, an occasion where fans would prefer to simply embrace the homegrown superstar, free of complicating thoughts. It’s anyone’s guess how much longer McCutchen might last where he is.

The reality of the Pirates’ situation is that the commitment to McCutchen probably isn’t forever. He’s under contract one more year, with a club option after that, and it’s hard to see the two parties together in 2019. It would’ve made plenty of sense for the Pirates to make a deal last week. It also made plenty of sense for the Pirates to hold off. It would now appear McCutchen will at least open the next season in Pittsburgh. Beyond that, it’s murky, but no one yet has to say their goodbyes.

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Episode 704
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. On this edition of the program, he addresses Justin Turner’s curious decision to sign for roughly the same amount as the third-best reliever on the free-agent market. He also addresses Colorado’s curious decision to sign Ian Desmond for $70 million and play him at first base and forfeit the 11th-overall pick in the draft. He also address other curious decisions.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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A lot of people were taken by surprise when the Diamondbacks non-tendered Welington Castillo, but it did at least set up an inevitability. It felt like a foregone conclusion that Castillo would end up signing with the Orioles. It was only a matter of the contract length. Castillo was said to want three years. The Orioles were said to want not that.

The arrangement now, as has been reported: Castillo has signed with Baltimore for one year and $6 million. He also has a second-year player option, worth $7 million. So Castillo won’t go broke, and now the Orioles have another power bat they can install in the lineup. In that sense, hey, mission accomplished for everyone. The only issue for the Orioles is that Castillo still doesn’t seem like he should be the starter.

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There are certain club options we just take for granted. Andrew McCutchen has only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, but it’s almost unimaginable that his employer might turn down his $14.5-million club option for 2018. Similarly, Chris Sale has only one guaranteed year remaining, but then he has consecutive club options, worth $12.5 million and $15 million, respectively. These are very good players, so for all intents and purposes, McCutchen’s locked up two years, and Sale’s locked up three.

I was wondering last night just how bad McCutchen would have to be in 2017 for his option to be declined. I then quickly one-upped myself. The McCutchen answer was maybe somewhat interesting. But what about an even more team-favorable option? Enter Jose Altuve. Altuve is under guaranteed contract for 2017. Then he has a club option, worth $6 million. And, for the sake of being thorough, that’s followed by another club option, worth $6.5 million. The question to be addressed: How bad would Altuve have to be this year for the Astros to not want to pay him $6 million the year after?

This hypothetical is exceptionally stupid. Let’s get on with it, then.

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