2018 Trade Value: #31 to #40

As is the annual tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the week of the All-Star Game — while the industry pauses to take a metaphorical breather — to take stock of the top-50 trade assets in the sport. For more context on exactly what we’re trying to do here, see the honorable-mentions post linked at the top of the page.

For this post and the others in this series, I’ve presented a graphic (by way of the wizard Sean Dolinar) breaking down each player’s objective skill level (represented, in this case, by a five-year WAR projection from ZiPS), contract/team-control details, rank in last year’s series, and then year-by-year details of age/WAR/contract through 2023, although a couple players have control beyond those five years. For those readers who are partial to spreadsheets rather than blocks of text, I’ve also included all the players we’ve ranked so far are in grid format at the bottom of the post.

The ZiPS WAR forecasts did influence the rankings a bit: for players who were bunched together, it acted as an impartial tiebreaker of sorts, but the industry opinions I solicited drove the rankings.

With that said, let’s get to the next 10 spots on the Trade Value list this year.

I feel like I’m supposed to kick this off with a Ferris Bueller reference, but I couldn’t come up with anything fitting. Walker is one of the rare prospects who gets the coveted “has a chance to become be an ace” label that’s only true of a handful of pitchers on Earth at a given time. For all the (rightful) handwringing about how scouts don’t truly understand upside when guys like Joses Altuve or Ramirez can emerge as the best hitters in the game after never appearing on a top-100 list, the group of aces who weren’t at some point described as a potential ace is basically just Cliff Lee, and he was touted in the minors.

The concerns with Buehler are a slight frame and a Tommy John surgery in his past, but both apply to Jacob deGrom, too, so it’s hardly a disqualifier. The list of pitchers who flash two 7 pitches and exhibit starter traits is insanely short, and while Buehler is short on MLB performance right now, he also has the rest of this season then the full six after that of control — double the control of some comparable arms who have been mid-rotation guys for a couple years. It’s difficult to compare Buehler to vets like Posey, Rizzo, and Scherzer — or a prospect like Tatis Jr. — since none of these guys are getting traded for each other (or really at all), but this felt like the right area for this cluster of disparate types, even if Buehler has to manage his innings this year with the occasional day off.

Tatis was another tough ranking: he’s exactly the sort of player a rebuilding team covets, while a big-market contender would have affordable options who can outproduce Tatis for the next couple years. If I were to publish a trade-value list for each club, Tatis would range from something like 15th to 75th. He ranks ahead of Buehler since they’re comparable explosive talents but Tatis is a hitter whose only real flaw is likely to involve contact. That’s a nitpick, though, since he’s a 19-year-old in Double-A who might hit 30 homers playing shortstop. It also doesn’t hurt that he looked great in the Futures Game.

Buehler and Tatis end up ahead of Posey and Scherzer here. That’s due, in part, to the veterans’ age but also the implications of their contracts to the competitive-balance tax, since even clubs with the capacity to spend are letting that dictate decisions. It’s also even harder to take on big money in the middle of the season. The market is simply more robust for Buehler and Tatis than those two, but an irrational bidder could blow that perception up, and the vets are more likely to draw an irrational bidder. Anyway, you see how these four ended up next to each other, despite their differences.

I would also submit that some of the risk-aversion I mentioned in the introduction applies here. If Tatis comes up tomorrow and has a hot six-week stretch, showing sustained glimpses of the five-win monster whom many scouts and execs already expect, he would probably jump into the top 20. I originally had him ranked higher than this, but after sending the list around for thoughts, this feels like a more accurate representation of where he stands at the moment, with strong arguments out there both for raising and lowering Tatis.

Rizzo is having a down year, but his underlying indicators suggest it’s mostly bad luck driving his poor first half. More than a few sources expect him to be a three- to four-win player going forward (with ZiPS taking the over), he’s still in his 20s, and players with excellent plate discipline tend to age more gracefully than free-swingers. Rizzo slides ahead of the four previously mentioned disparate types since he’s a solid bet to be an easily above-average regular for the 3.5 years remaining on his affordable deal. If last winter’s free-agent market is any indication, a first baseman doesn’t figure to inspire the most intense bidding, but essentially every team would want this player, without reservation.

Dave Cameron has mentioned in the past, and I’ve also found in my research, that clubs aren’t bullish on paying for defense. Defense peaks earlier than offense, as it’s tied more closely to athleticism than hitting, and there are more than a few clubs that seem to be hesitant to pay for things they can’t completely wrap their arms around. In a ranking of assets using just a cold, calculating algorithm that uses UZR-infused WAR, Simmons would be a little higher. That said, Simmons is on pace for his second consecutive career year in Los Angeles of Anaheim and he has an affordable 2.5 years left on his deal, making him one of the better short-term assets in the game.

Like Simmons, Altuve is a very good player right now. He also has even more offensive value and a longer track record of elite-level play, so he’s more attractive type of player to a wider swath of clubs. Simmons is under control for 2.5 years at a price that would appeal to any club, while Altuve is under control for 6.5 years at prices that are prohibitive for a collection of teams.

The complicating factor is that Altuve is a unique player, so traditional aging curves don’t really apply. This means the multiple years at $26 million on the end of the deal could still deliver more than the cost, but there’s no options at the end, so a receiving club wouldn’t have much flexibility if their assessment is wrong. At some point, though, elite players aren’t easy to find. Once they’ve maintained a certain level, they’re going to make something around a market rate. Altuve at least offers cost certainty and is in the middle of this third straight six- to seven-win season at age 28. Those factors combine to slide him ahead of the veterans we just discussed above.

Now we’re moving into the part of the list with consensus elite young players who still offer multiple years of control. Most teams will have all of these players in a tier around here, but anyone could quibble with the specific placement. Snell heads to the back of this group since he’s only just now in the middle of his breakout year, so there isn’t a long track record of success. That said, he was a touted young arm whom many thought would do this one day, so clubs are more apt to buy one season as proof of concept.

Snell is a 25-year-old lefty with no major injury history who still has one-and-a-half years at the league minimum and sits in the mid-90s, so there’s a lot to like. His capacity to perform and stay healthy are the only real questions you can ask here, but check some of the recent incarnations of this list to curb your enthusiasm: the young pitchers with shorter track records tend to bounce all over the place year-to-year on this list as their control dwindles and the odometer keeps adding mileage.

Hoskins burst onto the scene last year as a power bat who didn’t get much attention until Double-A, in large part because he was a right/right first baseman who went in the fifth round of a mid-major college. The plate discipline and approach were much better than almost anyone realized, but the factors that compelled Hoskins to fly under the radar for much of his career (position, handedness, late-blooming traits) are also the factors that prevent him from appearing higher on this list. The Phillies get Hoskins at discount rates for ages 24 through 30, which is exactly what years the clubs would pick if you let them.

Hoskins fits best at first base, which isn’t really an option given how Philly constructed their roster. He doesn’t really have the five-plus-win upside that you would want if you’re paying a retail rate for a guy ranked in this area. A solid 2.5- to 4.0-WAR player with 5.5 years of control mostly in his prime isn’t easy to find, though.

The trade that sent Haniger and Jean Segura from Arizona to Seattle has quietly become perhaps the second-most lopsided trade since that other deal the D-Backs made. Haniger has also quietly become a really good player who, like Rhys Hoskins, wasn’t really on the industry’s radar as a potential impact player until 2016, when he demolished Double-A and Triple-A. He edges out Hoskins despite offering one fewer year of control because Haniger is a slightly better athlete and hitter with comparable game power who can play a passable center field, even if he fits best in right field.

The trifecta of underappreciated players wraps up with Suarez, who had his breakout in 2017 then signed an extension in March of this year that locks him up through 2024 and offers an option for 2025. Given that Suarez hadn’t had a payday and is about to turn 27, it was time to cash in. Suarez got $66 million guaranteed, and the Reds pay what will be a below-market rate for his age-26 through age-33 seasons with the most defensive value and team control of these three relatively similar players.

Unlike these last three players, Sanchez was about as hyped as he could be, about as early as is possible for a young prospect. He and Miguel Sano were the two top players in their July 2nd signing class, and Sanchez showed 70 raw power and 70 arm strength freakishly early in his development, standing out well before he signed at age 16 for $3 million. Sanchez stagnated a bit in the minors, then everything clicked in the upper minors in 2015, setting the stage for a loud MLB debut in 2016. A large part of the stagnation period was Sanchez learning the intricacies of catching, both mechanically and mentally. There’s been more than a little chatter that some don’t like various parts of Sanchez’s defensive game, while he also has had a slow offensive start and a groin injury.

There’s some thought that Sanchez may not age as gracefully as a more athletic and defensive-focused catcher like Buster Posey has, and Sanchez can’t play anywhere other than first base. So we have rare skillset at a premium position combined with pedigree and performance, but also a profile that is somewhat volatile given the recent history. Still, every team would take him and there are only four catchers on this list, so the picky evaluations I cite here might take a back seat to positional scarcity — if Sanchez were ever actually available.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 Trade Value: #31 to #40 by Kiley McDaniel!

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