Archive for May, 2018

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/25/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay — very much podcasting this morning and afternoon for some reason

9:06

Put me in coach: Worse contract at this point – Heyward or Pujols

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Pujols. Heyward, despite everything, still isn’t an overall negative

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: It is too bad though — earlier this season, it seemed like Heyward was showing some real signs of life. They’ve all but disappeared, although in fairness he has experienced a concussion

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Go See the Two-Seamer Before It’s Gone

Baseball goes through its trends like about any other industry. Just about everything goes through a constant flow of peaks ebbing to lulls and then back to peaks agains.

Pitch types, for example, go through cycles of popularity. The curveball was out of fashion and now it is back. There are years where different pitches are more prominent than others. Different pitches do different things. They dart left, right, down, and appear to rise. They have different shapes, breaking in different depths. Their usage is tied to the swing plane, philosophies, and ball properties of the day.

You are probably aware that the two-seam/sinker has fallen out of favor in recent years.

While the fastball is generally losing market share in favor of breaking pitches, the four-seam fastball has actually enjoyed an uptick in popularity in recent years as pitchers take advantage of their newly quantified spin rates to better get over the swing planes of batters, who have adapted to hammer the low pitch, as Jeff Sullivan observed prior to last season.

In 2010, two-seam/sinker usage was at its peak of 22.5%, according to Pitch Info data. Four-seam fastball usage was at a pitch-tracking-era low of 34.8%. This season, two-seam/sinker usage is at a pitch-tracking-era low of 17.8%, its sixth consecutive year of decline. Four-seam usage is up to 37.6%.

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A Leaderboard With Mookie Betts and Barry Bonds

On April 18, I wrote an article titled “How Mookie Betts Has Been Baseball’s Best Hitter.” It was true — through to that point, Betts was first among all players in wRC+. Doesn’t get much more meaningful than wRC+. Betts opened the season on an absolute tear.

The way this usually goes, we write about a white-hot player, and then the player begins to regress. This is just an unavoidable fact of how writing works; we notice when players are doing something extreme, but extreme performances are unsustainable. Sure enough, since April 18, Betts no longer ranks first among all players in wRC+. He’s ranked second among all players in wRC+, only slightly behind teammate J.D. Martinez. In one way, Betts has cooled off. In another way, he’s done nothing of the sort.

Through roughly two months, Betts has been a better overall player than anyone else. I wrote in April about how he’s been able to lift so many balls to the pull side. That’s kept up — Betts knows he’s best as a pull hitter, and he’s getting more balls in the air. Yet there’s also something else going on. There’s been one other situational change, that’s paying off in a staggering way. I still have trouble believing the numbers, and I’ve already conducted all the research.

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The Astros’ Staff Is the Best Ever*

*Or would be, if the season ended today.

We know the Astros’ pitching staff has been absurdly dominant.

The truth is, they’re historically dominant at the moment.

Just a season after the Indians became the first team to strike out 10 batters per nine innings, set a record with a 27.5% strikeout rate, and finish with the highest pitching WAR total of all time (31.7), the Astros are a threat to top those marks.

The Astros have already recorded 11 WAR this season, while the next closest pitching staff, that of the Red Sox, has 7.9. The Astros are on pace to shatter the Indians’ WAR mark, and their 10.35 strikeouts per nine and 29.6% strikeout rate would also be records. Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander — who was outstanding against Wednesday — all have sub-2.00 ERAs.

(The Astros and Indians met last weekend, with the Astros taking two of three games, and Houston travels to Cleveland for a four-game series beginning Thursday. Get your popcorn ready.) Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen FanGraphs Chat: 5/24

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from Tempe. Let’s get right to it…

2:01
Mertz: Is Corbin Burnes’ recent mediocre performance more of a function of his home park/league, or is he really having problems?  Do you see him making any MLB starts this year?

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Very likely the ballpark. Not sure he debuts this year because so many other viable guys are already on the 40-man and Burnes is not. Houser, Woodruff, etc.

2:03
Larry: Still feel like Gorman is the most likely pick for Atlanta?

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep

2:03
Dan: Thoughts on Cubs pitching prospects so far this year? From Underwood to Albertos, a lot seems to happening, good and bad.

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Gleyber Torres and the Yankees’ Pursuit of the Team Homer Record

When the Yankees promoted Gleyber Torres in late April, they envisioned him helping them on both sides of the ball, replacing an underwhelming Ronald Torreyes/Tyler Wade platoon that was admittedly nothing more than a stopgap, a temporary solution to an infield logjam. Even so, they probably didn’t expect the kind of power outburst that Torres has provided. After going homerless in his first 12 games, the 21-year-old rookie second baseman has clubbed eight homers in his most recent 15. His total leads the team in the month of May — and that’s a team on pace to break the major-league record for home runs in a season.

Though he’s listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Torres did not show a ton of in-game power coming up through the minors. His season high of 11 homers was set in 2016, when he was 19 years old and playing at the High-A stops of the Cubs and Yankees. To be fair, with seven homers in 55 games last year, he probably would have surpassed that total had he not torn his left UCL and required season-ending Tommy John surgery in June. The prospect hounds at Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both graded his power as a 55 (above average), with the latter suggesting 20-plus homers annually; our own Kiley McDaniel graded his raw power at 55/60 (present/future) and his game power at 40/55. The 55 is here, at the very least.

From Baseball Prospectus senior prospect writer Jarrett Seidler:

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/24/18

12:02
Jay Jaffe: Hey hey, folks!  Welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. As I’m less than 24 hours away from flying solo with a 21-month-old toddler who can channel the Antichrist, i’ll be cutting this a bit shorter than usual so that I can figure out which whiskey will knock her out the longest. And with that, let’s get to the questions…

12:02
John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Jay! Shine thy light upon this chat!! Grace us with thy wisdom!!!
Is it possible after Mariano and eventually Mussina and (possibly) Schilling that we may not see another pitcher inducted into the Hall until Verlander??

12:05
Jay Jaffe: The late Roy Halladay is eligible for the first time this year, and I think he’s got a chance to get elected, if not this year then soon. Lee Smith will be eligible for the first time on the Today’s Game ballot, and given that he broke 50% on the writers’ ballot before, you have to figure he’s got a shot in that format. But those two and the three you mentioned might be the only pitchers who get in until somebody currently active, and as I noted last week, Verlander is pretty much at the head of the pack now given his age and recent dominance.

12:06
Dave: Howdy!  Robinson Cano seemed like an eventual shoo-in for the HOF before his PED-related suspension.  What are his chances now?

12:07
Jay Jaffe: I’d say they’re pretty low, but we’ll see how the voters handle Alex Rodriguez when he becomes eligible in 2022. We’ve yet to see a previously PED-suspended player top 23.8%.

12:08
bonnie: If you were casting a baseball flavored remake of Space Jam, who would be your star and who would you pick to make up the MonStars?

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Jose Quintana Is Finding His Level

Jose Quintana’s season is a little difficult to figure out. In three of his first four starts, he allowed 17 runs combined; in that fourth appearance, he pitched six shutout innings. Over four of his past five starts, meanwhile, he’s conceded one run total; he allowed six runs in the other.

Is he improving as the season goes on? He struck out 16 batters against 11 walks in 19.2 innings in those first four starts and struck out 29 hitters and walked 14 in 28.2 innings over the past five outings. His ERA is much lower in the latter of those two periods, but his FIP hasn’t moved a great deal, going from 5.15 to 4.37. These samples are small enough that it would be fair to conclude little to nothing had changed at all, but given his excellent track record, there has to be something to Quintana’s struggles.

A year ago at this time, there were some questions about Quintana’s trade value for the White Sox after the left-hander started slowly. Over his first 11 outings last season, Quintana had authored a 5.60 ERA and 4.40 FIP. Most of Quintana’s issues in terms of ERA stemmed from an increase in homers and a poor left-on-base percentage. After investigating Quintana’s numbers, I felt that most of Quintana’s issues were probably luck-based and unlikely to continue. Brushing off those concerns looks pretty good in hindsight, as Quintana put up a 3.30 FIP and 3.40 ERA and allowed just under one homer per nine innings the rest of the way, eventually helping a Cubs teams desperate for quality starter innings. This season, Quintana’s issues aren’t as easy to brush off.

While Quintana’s current FIP might resemble last year’s figure at roughly the same point in the season, his 4.68 FIP is nearly 20% worse than league average after accounting for the change in league and park. Additionally, there isn’t a gap in contact quality that suggests perhaps Quintana is just getting unlucky. So far, Quintana is giving up home runs because he has deserved to give up home runs. He’s striking out fewer batters than he did a year ago while his walks have gone way up. These are all bad things.

If there’s any cause for hope, it is twofold. One, Quintana has shown some flashes of being the very good pitcher he was before the season started, putting up four starts of at least six innings and zero or one run with at least five strikeouts. The second reason for optimism is that Quintana is still tinkering.

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The Impact of the NFL’s Anthem Rule on Baseball

On Wednesday, one of the top stories across the sports world was the National Football League’s institution of a new policy banning players from kneeling in protest during the national anthem.

From ESPN’s Kevin Seifert and Dan Graziano:

 NFL owners have unanimously approved a new national anthem policy that requires players to stand if they are on the field during the performance but gives them the option to remain in the locker room if they prefer, it was announced Wednesday.

The policy subjects teams to a fine if a player or any other team personnel do not show respect for the anthem. That includes any attempt to sit or kneel, as dozens of players have done during the past two seasons to protest racial inequality and police brutality. Those teams also will have the option to fine any team personnel, including players, for the infraction.

A couple of notes here: the policy was unanimous among owners who voted; the San Francisco 49ers abstained from the vote. Also, this policy was evidently something of a compromise; the league was previously throwing around ideas like a 15-yard penalty for kneeling.

The previous policy required players to be on the field for the anthem but said only that they “should” stand. When then-San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began kneeling in 2016, the league had no rule it could use to prevent it. The movement drew increasing criticism from President Donald Trump, as well as many fans, who believed it was a sign of disrespect toward the flag and country.

Owners, however, had been divided on how to extricate the league from that criticism. Some owners, including the Dallas Cowboys’ Jerry Jones and the Houston Texans’ Bob McNair, wanted all players to stand. Others, such as the New York Jets’ Christopher Johnson, wanted to avoid any appearance of muzzling players.

Even the seemingly simple option of clearing the field prior to the anthem was rejected by some owners who thought it would be interpreted as a mass protest or at least a sign of disrespect.

But it wasn’t a compromise with the union; the NFLPA said it wasn’t even consulted.

So how does this impact Major League Baseball? More than you might think. There’s actually no rule on the national anthem in MLB right now — there’s not even a rule requiring that it be played at all — which makes baseball unique among the major North American sports. Both the NBA and WNBA require players to stand for the anthem. When asked by Seifert, an MLB spokesman said this:

While this is not a league rule, the playing of the national anthems of the United States and Canada remains an important tradition that has great meaning to our fans. The playing of ‘God Bless America’ at designated games is a club choice.

But the absence of a rule doesn’t mean this isn’t an issue. Orioles center fielder Adam Jones had told USA Today last year that he didn’t expect such a protest to occur — and then, two weeks later, A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell knelt during the national anthem before a game last year.

Maxwell’s decision to kneel came after President Donald Trump — speaking on Friday in Huntsville, Ala., where Maxwell grew up — made reference to NFL players not standing for the anthem as employees who, as he put it, should be fired by their teams. Maxwell, an African-American raised in a military family, joins Colin Kaepernick and other athletes in attempting to raise awareness about brutality and injustice at the hands of authorities by kneeling during the anthem.

Maxwell received relatively little pushback, but then, he was also the first MLB player to kneel during the anthem, at least in the 21st century. He also knelt for just two games, and said himself that his anthem protest wouldn’t continue this season.

So clearly the idea of anthem protests — and a policy banning them — is a controversial one, and the incidents which athletes are protesting continue to occur. It’s also one on which the MLBPA has thus far declined comment. If MLB wanted to create a Rule, like the NFL and NBA, requiring players to stand for the national anthem, could it?

Let’s start by examining some of the more popular tweets from Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/NotScottInSC/status/999341939261616132

This is a smattering of the prevailing back-and-forth on Twitter, which seems to focus on whether and how this policy impacts players’ First Amendment rights. However…

Before I continue, please note: I am not saying the NFL is correct or incorrect. What I am saying, however, is that just about every non-lawyer in the twitterverse invoking the First Amendment on this issue — on both sides — is absolutely wrong.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1221: Stay Strong, Ron

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the banged-up Mariners, Tyler Chatwood‘s wildness, the Astros’ record-setting run prevention, a Mike Trout milestone, Chris Davis and looking strikeouts, Ron Gardenhire‘s ringtone, Michael Taylor‘s walk-off face, settling a game with rock-paper scissors, bad closers, Nick Markakis, and more, then answer listener emails about strike sounds, “three up, three down,” Kyle Schwarber‘s defense, Shohei Ohtani’s home-run rates, starters as openers, famous players, bunting practice for prospects, Jordan Hicks and HBP danger, the “fair-foul hit,” intentional balks, and sunk costs, plus a Stat Blast about Colin Moran and a high-pitch homer.

Audio intro: Bahamas, "Stronger Than That"
Audio outro: Coldplay, "Bigger Stronger"

Link to Jay Jaffe’s Mike Trout post
Link to Ron Gardenhire video
Link to Michael Taylor face
Link to rock-paper-scissors story
Link to intentional-balk story
Link to ESPN’s world-fame list
Link to Jeff’s Colin Moran post

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