So You’ve Intentionally Walked James Wood. What Now?

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

On Sunday, the Angels made 22-year-old James Wood the first player to receive four intentional walks in a single game since Barry Bonds in 2004. You could argue the plan worked, too, as Wood came up with at least one runner in scoring position all four times, and the only one of those runners to score did so on a bizarre, inning-ending double play. If the Angels’ goal was to avoid the big inning, then they nailed it. If their goal was to win the game, well, hope springs eternal; the Nationals won, 7-4, in 11 innings. The obvious takeaway is the 6’7” Wood is a terrifying talent, but just as obvious is how out of step with current baseball thinking – or really any baseball thinking – this move was.

Wood is having an incredible season, launching 22 home runs, walking 14.5% of the time, and batting .283. His 156 wRC+ makes him the eighth-best hitter in the game this season and a genuine contender for the National League MVP. However, it’s impossible to argue that he’s in Bonds territory. Bonds earned four IBBs four different times that year. He was in the midst of his fifth straight 45-homer season and 13th straight 30-homer campaign. He held the single-season home run record and was closing in on the all-time one. He put up a 233 wRC+ en route to an absurd 11.9 WAR in 2004. He was in his own league. Moreover, the game has progressed in its thinking since 2004, and it’s now widely understood that an intentional walk is rarely the smart move.

Stathead, which uses Retrosheet data from back before intentional walks were an official stat, lists 12 instances in which a player received at least four intentional walks in a game. This John Schwartz article from the 1980 Baseball Research Journal can teach you even more about the earlier history of the IBB, including the contention that Mel Ott received five intentional passes during the second game of a doubleheader on October 5, 1929 (though Retrosheet only lists three of Ott’s five walks that day as intentional). So this is an extraordinarily rare feat, and fully a third of the times it has happened in baseball history, it was specifically happening to Bonds in 2004. Read the rest of this entry »


St. Louis Cardinals Top 41 Prospects

JJ Wetherholt Photo: Rich Storry-Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the St. Louis Cardinals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/25

12:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folk! Greetings from Wellfleet, where I’m on my annual family (semi) vacation

12:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: This is my working week up here, which kicked off with my tribute to the late Dave Parker, who sadly passed away less than a month before his Hall of Fame induction https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-the-cobra-dave-parker-1951-202…

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you have to be a strong proponent of Parker’s HOF case to feel the sadness that comes with the timing of his death. I’m glad he experienced the outpouring of joy, appreciation and love that came with the news of his election.

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m working on my annual midseason look at the best team defenses, and will have something on Clayton Kershaw’s run for 3,000 strikeouts later this week as well.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Planning to take in a Cape Cod League game sometime after the 4th

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show

Read the rest of this entry »


Checking in on ZiPS zStats for Hitters at the Halfway Mark

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Love ’em or hate ’em, the class of “expected” stats has utility when we’re talking about predicting the future. The data certainly have mixed feelings among fans, but they perform an important task of linking the things that Statcast and similar non-traditional metrics say to performance on the field. A hard-hit rate of X% or a launch angle of Y degrees doesn’t really mean anything by itself, without the context of what’s happens in baseball games.

I’ve been doing projections now for nearly half (!) my life, so outside of my normal curiosity, I have a vested interest in using this kind of information productively in projections. Like the Statcast estimates (preceded with an x, as in xBA, xSLG, etc.), ZiPS has its own version, very creatively using a z instead.

It’s important to remember these aren’t predictions in themselves. ZiPS certainly doesn’t just look at a pitcher’s zSO from the last year and say, “Cool, brah, we’ll just go with that.” But the data contextualize how events come to pass, and are more stable than the actual stats are for individual players. That allows the model to shade the projections in one direction or the other. Sometimes that’s extremely important, such as in the case of homers allowed for pitchers. Of the fielding-neutral stats, homers are easily the most volatile, and home run estimators for pitchers are much more predictive of future homers than are actual homers allowed. Also, the longer a hitter “underachieves” or “overachieves” in a specific stat, the more ZiPS believes the actual performance rather than the expected one. More information on accuracy and construction can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Where Has the Old Ozzie Albies Gone?

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

When Ozzie Albies signed his current contract, I decried it in such terms that, well, “decried” was an accurate description. This 22-year-old middle infielder, coming off a season of 24 home runs and 4.0 WAR, had signed away his prime earning years to the Braves for seven years at an average of $5 million per. Two option years could keep him in Atlanta through 2027 without increasing the contract’s AAV. It was an all-time swindle, I wrote. Esau got a better deal when he sold his inheritance for a bowl of stew.

Six years later, I sit here contemplating a question that once would’ve seemed unfathomable: Should the Braves pick up those option years?

Through his first 83 games, Albies is hitting .223/.297/.321, which is a wRC+ of 74. He has never before hit under .259, nor slugged under .450, nor posted a wRC+ under 100 in any previous healthy season. There’s probably a little bad batted ball luck in there, and some malaise from Atlanta’s comprehensively frustrating, injury-riddled season to date. Read the rest of this entry »


Where Do We Draw the Line Drive?

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

I still remember the first time I wondered, What if the colors I see aren’t the same ones that other people see? What if the color I perceive as red looks the same as what you perceive as yellow? I was 10 years old, and I felt like a budding scientist or philosopher, or perhaps a poet. Whichever one, I was already preparing my Nobel Prize acceptance speech.

I’ve since come to realize that my 10-year-old brain wasn’t asking anything that every stoned college freshman hadn’t asked before. I sounded less like a Nobel Laureate and more like John Kruk taking his role as the Phillies’ color commentator a bit too literally. That said, the idea that different human beings perceive colors in different ways isn’t just pot-fueled postulation or Krukian wisdom – it’s the truth. It would have blown my 10-year-old mind to learn the colors I see aren’t necessarily the colors everyone else sees, and it’s not just about rods, cones, and intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells. Sometimes, it’s a matter of language.

Take a look at the four swatches below. Think about what colors they are. And no, the answers aren’t Steven Kwan’s whiff rate, arm strength, bat speed, and sprint speed: Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 23–29

As the calendar turns to July, the AL is a bit of a mess. The six teams that currently hold playoff berths are the only ones with winning records. The opposite is true in the NL, where there are nine teams over .500. That landscape should make for a very interesting trade deadline.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Dodgers 53-32 1591 1500 99.8% 1607 0
2 Astros 50-34 1585 1497 96.5% 1601 2
3 Tigers 53-32 1559 1488 99.0% 1582 0
4 Rays 47-37 1563 1506 79.0% 1572 2
5 Phillies 49-35 1546 1496 89.8% 1559 -3
6 Cubs 49-35 1545 1510 83.6% 1558 -1
7 Yankees 48-35 1536 1498 95.9% 1553 0
8 Brewers 47-37 1545 1485 57.3% 1547 0
9 Cardinals 47-38 1548 1508 48.7% 1547 3
10 Blue Jays 45-38 1539 1506 63.3% 1543 0
11 Reds 44-40 1530 1498 16.5% 1516 4
12 Mets 48-37 1499 1485 77.4% 1512 -3
13 Mariners 43-40 1505 1498 61.3% 1503 3
14 Padres 45-38 1503 1497 42.3% 1502 0
15 Angels 41-42 1499 1496 6.6% 1486 4
16 Giants 45-39 1482 1490 41.8% 1481 -5
17 Red Sox 41-44 1493 1500 14.7% 1475 -4
18 Rangers 41-43 1487 1498 20.0% 1473 2
19 Diamondbacks 41-42 1482 1497 18.1% 1464 -1
20 Marlins 37-45 1490 1507 0.2% 1463 6
21 Orioles 36-47 1489 1502 3.5% 1462 3
22 Guardians 40-42 1472 1505 21.9% 1461 -5
23 Braves 38-45 1484 1494 24.3% 1458 -1
24 Twins 40-44 1475 1495 26.3% 1458 -1
25 Pirates 35-50 1482 1512 0.1% 1452 0
26 Royals 39-45 1459 1498 11.8% 1441 -5
27 Athletics 34-52 1431 1506 0.3% 1408 0
28 Nationals 35-49 1429 1502 0.0% 1407 0
29 White Sox 28-56 1401 1504 0.0% 1382 0
30 Rockies 19-65 1348 1524 0.0% 1335 0

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 53-32 1591 1500 99.8% 1607
Astros 50-34 1585 1497 96.5% 1601

After wrapping up a 5-1 week with a series win over the Royals, the Dodgers have now won 15 of their last 20 games. That little swoon they toiled through toward the end of May is firmly in the rearview mirror. No one in the lineup is hotter than Max Muncy, who finished June with a .333/.459/.654 slash line, seven home runs and a 205 wRC+. The real turning point for Muncy came on April 30, when he started wearing glasses. Since then, he has a 178 wRC+ across 51 games, after posting a woeful wRC+ of 58 through his first 28 games of the season.

The Astros also went 5-1 last week, though they did it against two of NL’s top teams, the Phillies and the Cubs. Since Yordan Alvarez injured his hand on May 2, Houston has the best record in baseball, 34-19, and has built a huge 6 1/2-game lead in the AL West. The Astros can thank three guys for carrying the load for the offense while Alvarez has been sidelined: Jeremy Peña (162 wRC+ since May 2), Isaac Paredes (151), and Cam Smith (145). As for Alvarez, he’s ramping up his rehab and will begin to face live pitching this week.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 53-32 1559 1488 99.0% 1582
Rays 47-37 1563 1506 79.0% 1572

The Tigers won their weekend series against the Twins with two emphatic wins on Saturday and Sunday. In their 10-5 victory on Saturday, Riley Greene and Zach McKinstry were the standouts, each collecting a home run and three hits. Tarik Skubal took center stage on Sunday, firing seven shutout innings with 13 punchouts while allowing just two baserunners.

The Rays had a wild weekend in Baltimore; they were on the wrong end of a 22-8 blowout on Friday, turned things around with an 11-3 victory on Saturday, and finally lost the series with a relatively tame 5-1 loss on Sunday. Despite the small setback, Tampa Bay still leads the AL Wild Card race and has closed the gap in the AL East to just 1 1/2 games.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Phillies 49-35 1546 1496 89.8% 1559
Cubs 49-35 1545 1510 83.6% 1558
Yankees 48-35 1536 1498 95.9% 1553
Brewers 47-37 1545 1485 57.3% 1547
Cardinals 47-38 1548 1508 48.7% 1547
Blue Jays 45-38 1539 1506 63.3% 1543

Although the Cubs have led the NL Central for nearly the entire season, a .500 record in June has thrown the door open for the Brewers and Cardinals to make it true three-team race for the division. Chicago was 6 1/2 games ahead as recently as June 17, but that lead has now dwindled to two games. Milwaukee and St. Louis deserve credit for taking advantage of this month-long slump from the Cubs. Before a frustrating extra-innings loss on Sunday, the Brew Crew had won 22 of their previous 30 games, while the Cards are in the midst of an 11-4 stretch.

Last week, the Phillies were swept in Houston despite allowing just five runs during the three-game series because they scored just one of their own. They enjoyed a 13-run outburst in Atlanta on Friday, but then combined for three runs during the final two games of the series. That was enough to take two of three from the Braves thanks to another phenomenal outing from Ranger Suárez on Sunday, who tossed seven innings of one-run ball while striking out eight. He’s allowed a total of 10 runs across his last 10 starts. The good news is Bryce Harper is on track to return from the IL at some point this week when Philadelphia returns home to face the Padres and Reds.

The Yankees earned a much-needed weekend series win over the Athletics to bring their June record to 13-13, a stretch that has seriously loosened their grip on the AL East. After leading by as many as 6 1/2 games during the first week of this month, they enter the final day of June with just a 1 1/2-game cushion over the Rays. New York’s bats have gone cold as the weather has warmed up. Since June 1, the Yankees are running a 103 wRC+, down from their best-in-baseball 128 wRC+ over the first two months of the season. They begin this week with a huge four-game set on the road against the third-place Blue Jays, who are 19-11 over their last 30 games and just three games behind New York in the standings.

Tier 4 – The NL Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Reds 44-40 1530 1498 16.5% 1516
Mets 48-37 1499 1485 77.4% 1512
Padres 45-38 1503 1497 42.3% 1502
Giants 45-39 1482 1490 41.8% 1481

The Mets are in a full tailspin after their nightmarish weekend in Pittsburgh, where they were swept by the putrid Pirates and allowed 30 runs across the three-game set. With a 12-1 drubbing on Sunday, New York has now dropped 13 of its last 16 games. The starting rotation was already down three members when Griffin Canning ruptured his Achilles’ tendon on Thursday. The lone bright spot for the Mets this month has been Juan Soto’s continued resurgence; he blasted three home runs last week to bring his June total up to 11.

Ignore the Reds at your own peril. Chase Burns made his debut last week, striking out eight Yankees and flashing the electric stuff that made him Cincinnati’s top prospect. Then, on Sunday, Elly De La Cruz sparked an exciting ninth-inning comeback to secure a huge series win over the Padres and continue his scorcher of a month; he’s slashing .348/.429/.674 for a 195 wRC+ with one more game to play in June. The Reds are lurking in both the NL Central (five games back) and in the NL Wild Card race (2 1/2 games back), and all that young talent looks like it’s finally driving some success at the big league level.

The Rafael Devers trade hasn’t sparked a turnaround for the Giants offense. Quite the opposite, in fact; they’re 4-8 since acquiring him two weeks ago, and he’s slashing .217/.333/.391 with his new team. Last week was especially brutal, as San Francisco went 1-5 against the Marlins and White Sox to fall to 1 1/2 games out in the NL Wild Card standings. The Giants enter this week with a four-game series against the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

Tier 5 – The AL Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Mariners 43-40 1505 1498 61.3% 1503
Angels 41-42 1499 1496 6.6% 1486
Red Sox 41-44 1493 1500 14.7% 1475
Rangers 41-43 1487 1498 20.0% 1473

The Mariners took two of three from the Rangers in Texas this weekend, with every game going into extra innings — the first time that’s happened in any three-game series since 2015. Seattle hosts the Royals and Pirates this week before closing out the first half on the road against the Yankees and Tigers. Meanwhile, despite boasting the best pitching staff in baseball, the Rangers are fourth in the AL West standings because their lineup has continued to struggle. On the bright side, Corey Seager is showing some signs of life. The Texas shortstop bashed three home runs against the Mariners and has a 163 wRC+ over his last 14 games.

Prior to their 15-run outburst on Saturday, the Red Sox had scored just 2.8 runs per game in the 10 games since trading away Rafael Devers. Neither Roman Anthony (87 wRC+) nor Marcelo Mayer (84 wRC+) has had much success against big league pitching thus far, and the lineup looks particularly punchless without Devers anchoring it. Masataka Yoshida is expected to begin a rehab assignment this week and Alex Bregman ramped up his baseball activities over the weekend, but those reinforcements likely won’t return until after the All-Star break. By then it could be too late for them to make a significant impact on Boston’s plans ahead of the trade deadline.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Diamondbacks 41-42 1482 1497 18.1% 1464
Marlins 37-45 1490 1507 0.2% 1463
Orioles 36-47 1489 1502 3.5% 1462
Guardians 40-42 1472 1505 21.9% 1461
Braves 38-45 1484 1494 24.3% 1458
Twins 40-44 1475 1495 26.3% 1458
Pirates 35-50 1482 1512 0.1% 1452
Royals 39-45 1459 1498 11.8% 1441

The injuries just keep coming for the Diamondbacks, most recently last Monday when they placed Corbin Carroll on the IL with a fractured wrist. They had been managing to stay afloat despite losing Corbin Burnes at the start of the month, but it might be too much to do so while also being without Carroll. The Snakes slipped back below .500 after getting swept by the Marlins last weekend. Eight of Arizona’s final 14 games before the All-Star break come against the Giants and Padres.

The Marlins are riding a seven-game winning streak — their longest since 2022 — into this week after sweeping both the Giants and Diamondbacks and taking their series finale against the Braves to cap the week before. It’s been an up-and-down season for Miami, but the offense has been clicking during this hot streak. Otto Lopez (10-game hitting streak), Agustín Ramírez (11 hits last week), and Kyle Stowers (three home runs during the winning streak) have been the standouts, and they’re getting clutch hits in all the big spots. On Sunday, Lopez hit the go-ahead two-run single in the eighth inning, and Stowers followed up with a three-run double to seal the victory.

With their impressive series win over the Rays last weekend, the Orioles have compiled a 15-11 record in June. That’s much better than their abysmal first two months of the season but not good enough to get them back into the playoff race. To make matters worse, injuries have continued to plague the roster; Adley Rutschman hit the IL for the first time in his career with an oblique injury, and Zach Eflin left his start Saturday after just a single inning. It’s probably time to throw in the towel and start looking forward to 2026 and beyond.

The Royals snapped a six-game losing streak with a win on Saturday — their first win at home since May 31. They are in the midst of a 6-15 stretch that’s dropped them from three games over .500 to six below. The pitching staff is doing its job; Kansas City has allowed more than five runs just four times in the past 21 games and the second-fewest total in the AL during that span. The lineup remains the problem, as the Royals have the fourth-worst offense (83 wRC+) in the majors this season.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Athletics 34-52 1431 1506 0.3% 1408
Nationals 35-49 1429 1502 0.0% 1407
White Sox 28-56 1401 1504 0.0% 1382
Rockies 19-65 1348 1524 0.0% 1335

The White Sox have a 19-24 record at home following their series win over the Giants last weekend. That’s respectable — especially after their historically bad season last year. Unfortunately, they are 9-32 on the road, which is where they’ll be again this week when they travel to play the Dodgers and Rockies. Amazingly enough, the Rockies have won fewer home games than the White Sox have won on the road. It’ll be a battle between the two worst ballclubs in baseball in the launching pad of Coors Field. Sounds fun!


Steven Kwan Is Passing the Old Man Test

David Richard-Imagn Images

So there’s this thing called the old man test. It’s been around for at least five or six years, but it’s making the rounds on the Internet again. The idea is simple enough. You have to put on your socks and shoes without letting your feet touch the ground as you do so. You raise your left foot and keep it in the air while you reach down to the ground to grab your sock, put it on, reach down to the ground to grab your shoe, put it on, and tie it, then you do the same thing with your right foot. It tests your balance, strength, flexibility, and all those other things bodies are supposed to have. If you fail the test, then you’re an old man, I guess? Maybe you instantly turn into an old man? Maybe a healthy old man just appears right outside your window to point and laugh at you? That part’s less clear.

I tend to buy into the idea that the old man test is measuring something important, just because whenever I’ve had to do physical therapy, I’ve been forced to do a lot of one-legged exercises. If you’ve ever been in physical therapy, I bet you’ve had to do them too. There’s nothing physical therapists love more than turning up the difficulty level of an otherwise simple exercise by forcing you to do it while standing on one leg. Once you get good at doing it one-legged, they’ll make you stand on a bouncy ball or something, and if you nail that, they’ll literally just start shoving you to make it even harder. Truly, no one on earth is hornier for balance than physical therapists.

I bring all this up because I noticed something fun about Steven Kwan while playing around with Baseball Savant’s batting stance graphics the other day. The graphics take after ballroom dancing diagrams of old, showing fun little footprints for each player at three points: their resting batting stance, when the pitcher releases the ball, and when their bat actually intercepts the ball. Here’s Kwan’s 2024 graphic:

Kwan has one of the narrowest batting stances in the game, so his front foot moves out toward the mound quite a bit, but aside from that, nothing about it stands out all that much. He’s a little guy with a little stance, film at 11. But this is the calm before the storm. Here’s the same graphic for this month. Keep your eye on the blue footprint:

I was so confused when I watched this. Is Steven Kwan actually stepping on home plate as the pitcher releases the ball? It seemed like something I would’ve noticed before, but there was that blue footprint, right on top of home plate, clear as day. How could anyone start a swing with their body so closed off? And is it even legal to step on home plate in the middle of your swing? That definitely seems like it would be illegal. I pulled up the rulebook and started looking before I realized what was actually going on. If you’re familiar with Kwan’s swing, I’m sure you already know the answer, and it brings us back to the old man test.

Kwan doesn’t step on home plate, but he has one of the game’s most dramatic leg kicks, and right in the middle of it, he dangles his foot directly over the plate. There’s no way to indicate in a two-dimensional diagram that his foot is 18 inches off the ground. Sometimes, and I’m not exaggerating here, Kwan’s entire foot is inside the strike zone while the ball is already on its way to home plate. No batter has ever come closer to tying their shoe in the middle of a pitch:

I went back to Baseball Savant and watched every single qualified player’s batting stance diagram, hundreds of cleats dancing across the batter’s boxes, black to blue to red. I would very roughly estimate that half of today’s hitters don’t move their front foot all that much, but that still leaves scores and scores of players with dramatic leg kicks, their blue front feet moving every which direction. None of those players does what Kwan does. None of them does anything remotely resembling what Kwan does. When batting from the right side, Ozzie Albies does place most of his left foot outside the batter’s box, but that’s mostly because he sets up five inches closer to the plate than Kwan does, and his foot is still nowhere near home plate. Nobody’s diagram looks like Kwan’s because nobody’s leg kick looks like Kwan’s.

Here’s Kwan’s secret. He doesn’t just have a leg kick. He has a leg kick, and then, right in the middle of it, he has second leg kick. It’s a double kick. A normal leg kick just involves lifting your foot off the ground, and it’s maybe worth noting that this is a bit of a misnomer. Everywhere outside the baseball diamond, there’s a difference between raising your leg and kicking. In baseball, they’re one and the same. Regardless, Kwan does that, pulling his knee straight up until his femur is parallel with the ground, but he’s just getting going. At that point, he kicks his foot forward toward home plate and sweeps it out toward the pitcher in a circular motion as he puts it down:

Kwan has a leg kick, and then he has a foot kick. It would not be at all unfair to say that he puts his right foot in and shakes it all about. It’s an impressive display of balance, and so far as I can tell, it’s unique. I didn’t just watch all the diagrams. I watched the swings of every player I could think of who has a big leg kick. I watched YouTube videos that compiled huge leg kicks of the past. The closest leg kicks I could find belonged to Alek Thomas and Gary Sánchez, both of whom move their front foot while they get into their swing, but they’re far from doing a double kick. No one else does this.

Kwan didn’t start executing the double kick all at once. It seems like it’s been coming on for a while now. When he was drafted out of Oregon State in 2018, Kwan had a small, controlled leg kick, with no double kick in sight. I can’t find any video of him from the next two years, but he started 2021 with the very beginnings of a double kick:

It’s very subtle in the video above. By the time Kwan debuted in 2022, the double kick was there to stay, but it’s still evolving. As he told the MLB Network during spring training, he went into the 2024 season looking to impact the ball harder, and that meant a more aggressive leg kick. “Before, I’d get up and then I would just put it right back down,” he said. “So then my hands are able to work and I can manipulate the bat as I need to. But last year, I tried to – hitter leverage, early in the count – really try to get that stride out, and now I’m going out to get it. I can stay in the legs, and then now I can stay slotted, catch it out a little more in front.” The funny thing is that in the video, even as Kwan demonstrated the leg kick (which he called a leg lift), he wasn’t doing the double kick. He may not even know he’s doing it. It’s only in the heat of the game that the double kick happens.

This focus on going out and meeting the ball earlier is likely the reason it only started showing up on the Baseball Savant diagram this season. It has to do with his timing. This year, the second kick actually seems like it’s not quite bringing his foot as far forward or as high, but it’s also quicker. If Statcast could show us its full path, it would likely look nearly identical to the 2024 or 2023 path, but it’s only showing us its position at the moment the ball is released. At that point, Kwan is further along, so his foot is already over the plate. He’s also getting his foot down a fraction of a second earlier, and it’s possible that getting started that little bit earlier is part of the reason he’s running a career-low opposite field rate.

Watch any baseball game and you’ll see 18 different hitters with 18 different timing mechanisms. Nobody’s exactly the same, but they tend to fall in a couple of categories. There are players with quiet feet, players with toe taps, and players with leg kicks. Those leg kicks take their feet in pretty much every direction. Some players lift their leg straight up, some pull their foot way back as a cocking mechanism, some use the leg kick to true up a very open stance, some start narrow and push their foot toward the pitcher. But Kwan is the only one who just dangles his foot there, then kicks it out into the strike zone before he attacks the pitch. It’s a feat of ingenuity as well as a feat of balance. At the very least, he should be every physical therapist’s favorite player.


Remembering “The Cobra,” Dave Parker (1951-2025)

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Last December, 33 years after he last played, Dave Parker was finally elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The lefty-swinging, righty-throwing “Cobra” had once been regarded as the game’s best all-around player, a 6-foot-5, 230-pound slugger who could hit for power and average, had plenty of speed as well as a strong and accurate throwing arm, and exuded as much charisma and swagger as any player of his era. But injuries, cocaine use, and poor conditioning curtailed his prime, and while he rebounded to complete a lengthy and successful career, in 15 years on the writers’ ballots, he’d never drawn even one-third of the support needed for election. He hadn’t come close in three tries on Era Committee ballots, either, but buoyed by the positive attention he had generated while waging a very public battle with Parkinson’s Disease, and backed by a favorable mix of familiar faces on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee, he finally gained entry to the Hall, alongside the late Dick Allen.

Unfortunately, Parker did not live to deliver the speech he said he’d been holding for 15 years. Just shy of one month from the day he was to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he passed away at age 74 due to complications from Parkinson’s Disease, which he was diagnosed with in 2012.

Parker is the third Hall of Famer to die between election and induction. Eppa Rixey, a lefty who pitched in the National League from 1912 to ’33, was elected by the Veterans Committee on January 27, 1963. He died one month and one day later, at the age of 71. Leon Day, a righty who starred in the Negro Leagues from 1934 to ’46, and later played in Mexico and in the affiliated minor leagues, was elected by the Veterans Committee on March 7, 1995. He died six days later, at the age of 78. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Cam Schlittler Is Cut-Riding His Way Toward the Yankees Rotation

Cam Schlittler has emerged as the top pitching prospect in the New York Yankees organization. His ability to overpower hitters is a big reason why. In four starts since being promoted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on June 3, the 6-foot-6, 225-pound right-hander has logged a 1.69 ERA and a 40.2% strikeout rate over 21-and-a-third innings. Counting his 53 frames at Double-A Somerset, Schlittler has a 2.18 ERA and a 33.0% strikeout rate on the season.

The 2022 seventh-rounder out of Northeastern University is averaging 96.5 mph with his heater, but more than velocity plays into the offering’s effectiveness. As Eric Longenhagen wrote back in January, Schlittler’s “size and arm angle create downhill plane on his mid-90s fastball akin to a runaway truck ramp, while the backspinning nature of the pitch also creates riding life.”

I asked the 24-year-old Walpole, Massachusetts native about the characteristics our lead prospect analyst described in his report.

“Arm slot-wise it’s nothing crazy,” Schlittler said in our spring training conversation. “I’m more of a high-three-quarters kind of guy, but what I didn’t realize until looking at video a couple months ago is that I have really quick arm speed. My mechanics are kind of slow, and then my arm path is really fast, so the ball kind of shoots out a little bit. With my height, release point— I get good extension — and how fast my arm is moving, the ball gets on guys quicker than they might expect.” Read the rest of this entry »