Author Archive

Effectively Wild Episode 1296: Hot Prospect Content

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo‘s current strikeout-less streak, a few more people who gave much more than 100 percent, and end-of-season-award voting, including Mike Trout’s showing in the AL MVP race, Jacob deGrom and pitchers as MVPs, and why Jeff voted for Justin Verlander for AL Cy Young over victor Blake Snell. Then (27:50) they talk to FanGraphs writers Eric Longenhagen and Craig Edwards about the site’s recent work on prospects and scouting, including how and why we put dollar values on prospects, the value of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., how scouting and player development are changing and making public prospect ranking harder, farm-system rankings and the big gaps between teams, what types of prospects public lists tend to overrate, whether the Padres system is historic, and more, plus the significance of MLB’s new national broadcast deal.

Audio intro: The Whigs, "Hundred / Million"
Audio interstitial: Guided By Voices, "Vote for Me Dummy"
Audio outro: The Replacements, "Love You Till Friday"

Link to Astudillo stats
Link to “one million percent” story
Link to Jeff’s Verlander post
Link to Craig’s prospect-valuation post
Link to Craig’s farm-system rankings
Link to Craig’s positional-bias post
Link to Eric and Kiley’s scouting primer post
Link to Sam’s romance-novel post
Link to EW Secret Santa sign-up

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Effectively Wild Episode 1295: The 120-Percent Podcast

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jose Altuve and other players claiming to give (much) more than 100 percent and Joe Mauer‘s retirement and Hall of Fame case, then answer listener emails about Shohei Ohtani’s future role, whether Mike Trout could go contact-for-contact with Willians Astudillo, a baseball romance novel, winning a World Series MVP award without hitting, whether improved pitcher hitting could correct the so-called strikeout scourge, a 60-WAR season vs. 60 one-WAR seasons (and the theoretical single-season WAR maximum), the effects of bigger bases, and teams with no “qualifying” pitchers, plus a Stat Blast about Mallex Smith and the hitters who’ve sprinted their way to extra offensive value.

Audio intro: Ken Ashcorp, "20 Percent Cooler"
Audio outro: Manny, "210 Percent"

Link to Jay’s Mauer post
Link to story on the 1957 A’s
Link to Sam on the ERA title innings minimum

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Effectively Wild Episode 1294: Signs Language

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a Carter Capps-like cricket bowler, another Scott Boras nautical analogy, the latest Mariners-Rays trade (this time involving Mike Zunino, Guillermo Heredia, and Mallex Smith), how fans felt about the 2018 season, and a Twitter kerfuffle caused by comments made by Bill James, then (31:19) bring on former major leaguer F.P. Santangelo to discuss the ins and outs of sign-stealing and pitch-tipping, peeking at the catcher, headsets on the field, playing with Barry Bonds, his memories of the Expos and thoughts on Montreal as a baseball city, playing several positions, getting hit by a high number of pitches, career longevity, and more.

Audio intro: The Avett Brothers, "Signs"
Audio interstitial: The Thrills, "Don’t Steal Our Sun"
Audio outro: Dave Clark & Friends, "Signs"

Link to cricket delivery
Link to Jeff’s post on the Mariners-Rays trade
Link to Jeff’s post about fan sentiment

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Effectively Wild Episode 1293: Offseason Draft Day

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the possibility of the Mariners selling and what a Jerry Dipoto-led rebuild would look like, the Yankees’ CC Sabathia signing and GM Brian Cashman’s comments about the luxury tax, scenes from the GM meetings, the Giants hiring Farhan Zaidi from the Dodgers, and Lance McCullers presumably pitching hurt and having Tommy John surgery, then conduct their annual free agent contracts over/under draft and World Series odds movers draft.

Audio intro: Blondie, "Will Anything Happen"
Audio outro: Big Thief, "Vegas"

Link to EW competitions and drafts sheet
Link to MLBTR’s FA contract predictions
Link to October Bovada World Series odds

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Effectively Wild Episode 1292: Strat and Tats

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo‘s 2019 Steamer projections and turnover in the Astros front office and field staff, then (13:17) bring on Arnie Pollinger and Robin Perlow, husband and wife administrators of the 40-year-old SOMBILLA Strat-O-Matic league, to talk about the origins of the league, playing Strat on their first date, league rivalries, how they’ve kept the group together for so long, keeping track of past performance, how Strat has enhance their appreciation of baseball, pace of play, and the beginning of the league’s latest season. Then (41:16) they bring on EW listener and A’s fan Chris Rankin to ask him many probing questions about why he recently elected to get Khris Davis‘s .247 batting averages and Matt Chapman’s 2018 Defensive Runs Saved total tattooed on his wrists, and the possible ramifications of that decision. Lastly, Ben brings on Baseball Prospectus co-founder, Ringer colleague, and dermatologist Rany Jazayerli (1:04:29) to put a bow on both preceding segments by explaining whether Chris could conceivably remove his tattoos and how Strat taught him how to analyze baseball, followed by updates on Roger Angell and the minor-league free agent draft.

Audio intro: Clem Snide, "Weird"
Audio interstitial: The Rolling Stones, "Tumbling Dice"
Audio interstitial 2: Simon Love, "(Why’d You Get That) Tattoo Girl?"
Audio interstitial 3: Golden Earring, "Save Your Skin"
Audio outro: Dawes, "A Little Bit of Everything"

Link to 2019 Steamer projections
Link to SOMBILLA website
Link to photo of Chris’s tattoos
Link to Rany’s Strat-O-Matic article
Link to Roger Angell article
Link to .247 shirt

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Effectively Wild Episode 1291: Power Ball to the People

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh, Jeff Sullivan, and ESPN’s Sam Miller recap the results of their 2018 minor league free agent draft and the surprising season of Wade LeBlanc, banter about Willians Astudillo and Delmon Young, discuss the defining memory of the 2018 season (and other seasons), and react to Clayton Kershaw’s contract extension. Then (28:54) they bring on Rob Neyer, author of the new book Power Ball: Anatomy of a Modern Baseball Game, to discuss how he picked a game and topics to write about, whether baseball is changing in worrisome ways, knowing when and how to cite stats and talk to players, an unintended consequence of a powerful MLB Players Association, the pace of baseball’s evolution, Rob Manfred’s performance so far, and much more.

Audio intro: The Whigs, "Say Hello"
Audio interstitial: Rockpile, "When I Write the Book"
Audio outro: Joanna Newsom, "The Book of Right-On"

Link to minor league FA draft episode
Link to EW competitions/draft spreadsheet
Link to Sam’s article on each season’s defining memory
Link to Sam’s article on 2017’s defining memory
Link to Sam’s Delmon transaction tree article
Link to Jeff’s Kershaw contract post

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Effectively Wild Episode 1290: Circling the Wagenen

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Boston’s outfield rotation during the World Series, the significance of declining World Series ratings, the Orioles and the difficulty of classifying “tanking” teams, Manny Machado’s public persona and whether his reputation will hurt his free-agent appeal, and the Mets’ hiring of agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their new GM. They also answer two listener emails about the Astros and do a Stat Blast about the differences between postseason and regular-season baseball.

Audio intro: Dinosaur Jr., "The Wagon"
Audio outro: Lou Reed, "Wagon Wheel"

Link to Craig Edwards on World Series TV ratings
Link to Jeff’s post on the Orioles
Link to Ben on quantifying hustle
Link to Sheryl Ring on hiring agents as GMs
Link to Jeff on postseason stats

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Effectively Wild Episode 1289: Postseason Finale

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan recap the last three games of the World Series, including a wild and interminable Game 3, Game 4’s divisive managerial decisions, Game 5’s matchup of diverging starter narratives, how this World Series and postseason stacked up historically, the futures of the Red Sox and Dodgers, how great the Red Sox were, the weird ways they won, playoff unpredictability, the transition to the offseason, and more.

Audio intro: Frank Sinatra, "It’s Over, it’s Over, it’s Over"
Audio outro: Doug Martsch, "Stay"

Link to Ben’s article about second-guessing
Link to Jeff’s post about the Red Sox in historical context
Link to Ben’s Price post

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Effectively Wild Episode 1288: The More You Don’t Know

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about how teams project the outcomes of matchups between batters and pitchers, the perils of second-guessing well-informed managerial decisions, and why teams still make mistakes, then answer listener emails about start-to-start strikeout variance, limiting the number of pitchers used per game, a potential problem with pitcher-catcher headsets, the four Wander Francos, the MLB players with the most-ever teammates, and the legality of getting a running start when tagging up, plus a Stat Blast about a new way to think about how often the best batters fail.

Audio intro: The Posies, "I Guess You’re Right"
Audio outro: The Beths, "Not Running"

Link to Ben’s article about second-guessing
Link to Ben’s article about Kratz and catcher sounds
Link to list of players with most teammates

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Effectively Wild Episode 1287: Contact High

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a home-run robbery by 40-year-old Endy Chavez and some managerial news, then discuss the first two games of the World Series, focusing on the Red Sox strikeout narrative, the disappointment of Clayton Kershaw vs. Chris Sale and Sale’s playoff vulnerability, David Price‘s second consecutive strong postseason start, a Fenway Park attendance mystery, mid-inning commercials on the Fox broadcast, Nathan Eovaldi‘s free agency, Cody Bellinger’s deceptive fly balls, the decisions of Dave Roberts (including Pedro Baez vs. Alex Wood and not starting Max Muncy), and more.

Audio intro: Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever, "Talking Straight"
Audio outro: Oasis, "Hung in a Bad Place"

Link to Endy play
Link to Ben’s research on the contact advantage
Link to Jeff’s research on the contact advantage
Link to Jeff’s Bellinger post

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