After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
On the strength of his five wins, Jose Abreu was worth approximately $30 million in 2014. Should he regress a little but still manage the 3.5 WAR projected here by ZiPS, Abreu will have produced approximately $50 million in value over the first two years of the six-year, $68 million contract he signed in October of last year. Even if he ultimately opts in to arbitration (which he’s permitted to do — and almost certainly will do, at this rate — under the terms of his contract), the probability remains that Abreu will have provided an excellent return on investment.

Elsewhere around the field, it’s more difficult to find such optimism. As noted by Jeff Sullivan on Monday, the White Sox’ rate above average only at first base and DH according to the Steamer projections. Indeed, ZiPS paints a similar portrait — with the exception of center field Adam Eaton, perhaps, for whose 2015 season it’s decidedly more encouraging.

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Earlier today, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Tampa Bay Rays. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Tampa Bay’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Rays system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Rays system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Oakland catchers combined for the fourth-highest offensive and absolute lowest defensive run totals in the majors last year. In part, the poor defensive record was a result of both John Jaso and Derek Norris making starts at DH (and thereby receiving the attendant negative positional adjustment). In part, it’s because Jaso and Norris aren’t particularly excellent defensive catchers. For ZiPS, at least, the strengths compensate for the weaknesses sufficiently to make catcher the club’s likely most productive position.

Elsewhere, one finds more optimism regarding Marcus Semien’s 2015 season. Not regarding his shortstop defense, of course. ZiPS projects him to concede seven runs there in roughly a full season (which is almost precisely Steamer’s estimate, as well). However, both systems have Semien producing a roughly league-average batting line with roughly league-average (position agnostic) defense. Those estimates conspire to produce a nearly league-average projected WAR.

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Episode 513
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses OFP, accounting for biases in individual scouts, and the three best jobs in baseball.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 51 min play time.)

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
For those who haven’t dedicated much time of late to the study of the Colorado Rockies, finding that ZiPS projects outfielder Carlos Gonzalez for fewer than two wins in 2015 might be a surprise. It’s less surprising, of course, in light of Gonzalez’s 2014 season, during which he recorded a -0.3 WAR in 281 plate appearances. The cause of that uncharacteristically poor performance was largely a BABIP about 60 points lower than his career average. The cause of his limited playing time was some combination of a damaged patella tendon, a finger tumor, a calf contusion, and a sprained ankle. It’s reasonable to assume that there was some interaction between the injuries and the deflated offensive numbers.

With regard to how Colorado might best deploy their other three outfielders, ZiPS’ computer math would appear to advise a platoon of Charlie Blackmon and Drew Stubbs, with Corey Dickerson occupying left field by himself. Blessed with less athleticism than Gonzalez, Dickerson nevertheless features a similar offensive approach, dependent upon power on contact, but with something less than ideal plate discipline.

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Episode 512
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he makes a third appearance on the pod this week, mostly because of the Dodgers.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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The Rule 5 draft began today (Thursday) at Noon ET, signifying the end of this year’s Winter Meetings in San Diego. Designed to facilitate opportunities for talented minor leaguers otherwise blocked within their own organization’s depth chart, the draft has created opportunities for (among others) Jose Bautista, George Bell, Roberto Clemente, Shane Victorino, and Johan Santana.

The complexion of the draft has changed since 2006, when an extra year of protection was added under the new CBA. That said, both an MVP (Josh Hamilton) and Cy Young (R.A. Dickey) winner have been selected in the meantime.

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft if they’ve been excluded from their respectively club’s 40-man roster and were:

• Signed at age 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years; or
• Signed at age 18 and young and have played for five years.

A club, once selecting a player by means of the draft, must retain that player on its active roster for the duration of the following season, with exceptions for injury that are too tedious to reprint here. If such stipulations aren’t met, the player in question must be returned to his original club. Sometimes the original club declines to accept the player. Sometimes a small trade is worked out. There are other realistic scenarios, as well. As many as one can imagine.

There are surely other details I’m omitting. My concern here, however, isn’t to provide a flawless recapitulation of the current CBA’s Rule 5, but rather to examine facts about the players whom the rule has affected.

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Episode 511
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he makes a second appearance on the pod this week with a view towards analyzing all of the transactions this year’s Winter Meetings have produced.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min play time.)

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After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Because it’s a statistical model and not a human with a brain and neurotransmitters and a face, the ZiPS projection system is incapable of experiencing or exhibiting signs of anxiety. Were it capable of doing so, however, it apparently still wouldn’t exhibit any anxiety with regard to Mike Trout’s 2014 season — a season during which Trout led all batters by a win, but also trailed the 2013 version of Mike Trout by roughly three wins. One finds that Trout is projected here to produce a 9.6 WAR in 2015 — actually one-tenth of a win greater than his projection from last year.

Elsewhere, ZiPS’ computer math suggests that the Angels nearly have the player they expected when the club signed Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million contract in December of 2012. Unfortunately, the player isn’t Hamilton himself, but rather Kole Calhoun. Over the last two years he’s recorded a 125 wRC+. Josh Hamilton’s career mark, by comparison: 129 wRC+. ZiPS is a bit less optimistic for Calhoun’s 2015 season, but he’s emerged as an excellent hitter for an eighth-round selection who signed for a mere $36 thousand.

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The image above represents a landmark moment in the author’s own life — and perhaps the life of anyone who derives pleasure from those instances in which the previously marginalized become less marginalized — insofar, I mean, as it demonstrates how, earlier today, Marcus Semien was the most searched-for player at FanGraphs.

On the one hand, it’s not particularly surprising that Semien would be a person of some interest at the moment: he, along with assorted other pieces, was just traded to Oakland in exchange for talented right-hander Jeff Samardzija and still-alive prospect Michael Ynoa. Curious Oakland fans — and curious other sorts of fans, too — are curious about the new additions to the club.

What’s is surprising, however, is that Semien might serve as the “centerpiece” — or an approximation thereof — in a deal that sees Jeff Samardzija (even if it’s just a year of Jeff Samardzija) going the other way.

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