The blisters that disrupted Gore’s first full season in pro ball were not an issue in 2019, and he reached Double-A after 15 dominant starts in the hitter-friendly Cal League, during which he surrendered just nine measly runs. Gore pitches the same way a great horror movie villain lurks and ambushes from the shadows. The strange, balletic way he hoists his leading leg and hands as high as he can before he peddles home builds fear of the unknown, and dread anticipation the same way eerie music portends someone’s cinematic demise. Then Gore lunges home with a huge stride, one that takes him slightly down the first base line, and gets right on top of hitters, creating more discomfort. Then, suddenly, the jump scare. The ball explodes out from behind Gore’s head and blows past flailing hitters at the letters, banishing them to the dugout until their sequel at-bat a few innings later.

Gore generated a 16% swinging strike rate overall last year and a 15% swinging strike rate on his fastball, which is amazing for a heater that only averaged 93 mph. Several other traits — Gore generates nearly perfect backspin and seam uniformity on his fastballs, which you can see in the video that corresponds to this player capsule, and the flat approach angle of his stuff contributes, too — help the fastball play up, including Gore’s command which projects, at least, to plus. Spin efficiency also enables his curveball to be good even though it lacks big raw spin, he has glove-side command of his slider, and his changeups, though they’re of mixed quality, are typically well-located. You can go wild projecting on Gore’s secondary stuff, especially the changeup, and his command because he is such an exceptional athlete, and the fact that he can repeat and maintain such an odd and explosive delivery is clear evidence of that.

The 2018 blister problems created some short-term workload issues that San Diego’s dev group tried to solve by shutting Gore down for most of August. He threw side sessions for most of the month before returning for one last in-game outing before the Texas League playoffs, which he didn’t pitch in. He had a 40-inning increase from 2018 to 2019, when he threw 100 frames. It puts him on pace to throw 120-140 innings this year, though it only makes sense for San Diego to push him if they’re contending for the playoffs. Based on how they handled Paddack and Tatis last year, such an approach seems possible.

If not for Sam Huff‘s game-tying two-run shot in the bottom of the seventh inning, we would not have gotten to see Patiño chuck heaters past Royce Lewis and Jo Adell at the 2019 Futures Game. It was a coronation of sorts, an indication that the then-teenager would be ready for the bright lights of Petco Park when the Padres call on him, which might happen in 2020, even if it’s out of the bullpen at first. (There are some executives who think that will be Patiño’s ultimate role.) He’s smaller, and his changeup and command are not very good yet. But this is one of the best on-mound athletes in the minors, one who hasn’t been pitching all that long, and has had premium velocity for an even shorter span of time. It’d be unreasonable to expect a 20-year-old to be fully realized when he’s only been pitching for about four years. Patiño’s velocity came on in a huge way as he got on a pro strength program and he’s added 40 pounds of good weight and about 10 ticks of velo since he signed. He’s a charismatic autodidact who has taken a similarly proactive approach to learning a new language (he became fluent in English very quickly, totally of his own volition) as he has to incorporating little tricks and twists into his delivery (he’s borrowed from Mac Gore) to mess with hitters.

Were this a college prospect, he’d be in the conversation for the draft’s top pick, and I’m very comfortable projecting on the command and changeup because of the athleticism/makeup combination. I expect Patiño will reach the big leagues this year in a bullpen capacity and compete for a rotation spot in 2021.

The .401/.442/.662 line Abrams posted after signing isn’t sustainable, buoyed as it was by the interaction that players as fast as he is have with defenses at the lowest levels of the minors (he had a .425 BABIP), but Abrams can absolutely rake. He had no trouble with the leap from amateur to pro velocity, though some of the top high school pitching he saw the summer before his draft year was probably better than what he faced in the 2019 AZL. He has a knack for impacting the baseball in a way that creates hard contact even though his swing is currently pretty flat, and he can do this all over the strike zone. Of the trio of elite AZL prospects (Abrams, Bobby Witt, and Marco Luciano), Abrams has the most polished hit tool and the most room left on his frame. Even without a swing change, he’s going to grow into more power just through maturity, which is pretty scary considering his exit velos are already above big league average (though, again, AZL pitching wasn’t good last year).

I don’t think he’s a shortstop. When he has time to step and throw, Abrams has enough arm for the left side of the infield, but ask him to contort his body and make tough throws on balls he has to go get and the results are mixed. Most players with this issue end up in center field, where Abrams could be a plus defender because of his speed, assuming his instincts there aren’t terrible. He has top-of-the-order traits right now and is a virtual lock to play somewhere up the middle, even if it isn’t at short.

Campusano was a bad-bodied catcher on the summer showcase circuit, but then he completely remade his body for his senior spring. He showed above-average power, some bat control, and improved agility behind the plate, boosting his stock to the late first/early second round of the draft. He didn’t catch much velocity in high school and struggled receiving pro arms at first, but that has improved to a place of acceptability. More importantly, he’s continued to hit. Though his Hi-A statline was aided by the Cal League’s hitting environment, Campusano’s 11% strikeout rate was the second best rate among qualified, full-season backstops in 2019 (Yohel Pozo was first) and his exit velos (89 mph on average) are great for a 20-year-old. He is rumored to have been the centerpiece of San Digeo’s Mookie Betts negotiations with Boston and while young catching has a tendency to take a beating and fall short of expectations on offense because of it, right now Campusano looks like a potential star offensive catcher.

Trammell sees a lot of pitches, he has gap power, and he can really run, which helps him run down more balls than a lot of left fielders. He’s very competitive, and is similar in many ways to Brett Gardner. He was utilizing a narrower stance during the spring, which forced him to take more of a stride than he had been during his days with the Reds. This was probably done to see if Trammell would end up hitting for more power but there’s no way of knowing if it worked yet.

You can frame arguments such that Morejon compares favorably to most of the college pitchers available in the 2020 draft. He’s parked at 94-97, his changeup is heavy enough to get groundballs when it’s not missing bats, and Morejon has a shapely, low-80s breaking ball that he can throw for strikes. 21-year-olds rarely have this sort of stuff or such a good idea of how to deploy it, let alone both, but for me, Morejon still exists in the Jonathan Loaisiga FV bucket.

He’s been shut down an awful lot. Last year, after just three starts, a shoulder issue sent him to the 60-day IL. It was Morejon’s fourth IL stint in the last two years, and he was later scratched from a Fall League start for back tightness. He pitched in relief upon return, which changes the context for the velo. A few other nits. Morejon babies his breaking ball into the zone, and his arm speed changes in a way I think is noticeable. From a spin axis/efficiency standpoint, his fastball is the sinking type that tends not to miss bats, which is part of why I think he’s been hittable in a small big league sample, including a nuclear spring outing in Peoria that he followed (and rectified) with a bat-breaking clinic in Tempe against the Angels’ varsity squad. Some of this seems imminently correctable, especially considering Morejon’s age, but the way the injury history interacts with his relief risk and the fastball traits put him in the 45+ FV bucket with a bunch of other guys with mid-rotation ceilings who I’m scared to really bet on.

The Padres have been unafraid to stick their necks out and use high picks on high school players who weren’t fixtures on the summer showcase circuit for one reason or another (injury, participation in football, etc.), players who may be under-scouted (and perhaps undervalued) by clubs who are more comfortable with prep hitters who’ve performed against curated competition. The results have been mixed. Mason House and Sam Keating are not on this prospect list, while Blake Hunt has climbed it, and Mason Thompson has yo-yo’d. Now 2019 draftees Hudson Head and Josh Mears enter the fray, with Head doing so after receiving a $3 million bonus, a record for a third-rounder.

The pitching he saw in the AZL was the best he’s seen in his entire life, and Head not only allayed concerns about that competition-quality chasm by hitting .283/.383/.417, he also occasionally did some freaky, elite stuff that got me very excited about his prospectdom. Head is ambidextrous, and swings and throws a baseball with his left hand but quarterbacked primarily with his right, occasionally using his left when he rolled out that way. For someone with so little high-level experience, his bat control is remarkable. A pronounced arm bar caused him to be late on some of the good velo I’ve seen him face but Head’s feel for opposite field contact enabled him to strike those pitches with authority anyway. I think he needs polish from a mechanical standpoint, but there’s rare natural bat-to-ball proclivity happening here. There’s also much more measurable power than I would have guessed — Head’s exit velos last summer were more akin to those of heavy-hitting corner guys his age than someone who looks like a wiry leadoff sort. Still a high-variance prospect because of his short track record of hitting, Head has a shot to be a leadoff-hitting center fielder, an above-average regular.

Aside from Gabriel Arias, Santana is the cleanest defensive fit at shortstop in this org and projects to be an above-average defender there at peak. He also has good feel for contact and rarely swings through pitches in the zone. Couple that with a frame that really looked like it was starting to fill out last summer and fall (especially in the shoulders), and Santana’s ability to rotate with uncommon looseness and explosion, and we have a potential above-average regular here. Because the feel for contact is already seemingly in place, Santana stands a good chance to hit for whatever power he grows into, while also staying at short.

Some combination of randomness and the excitable Triple-A baseball played a role in Cronenworth’s unsustainable 2019 power output at Durham, but the other aspects of the offensive profile are real. He doesn’t give away at-bats, he makes a ton of contact, and he plays a serviceable shortstop with experience at several other positions. He’s a super utility sort who might have also played a more significant bullpen role had MLB not instituted rules that put a damper on some of the creative uses teams were considering for players like this. Instead, Cronenworth may throw an inning or two per week in low-leverage situations as a way to save someone else in the bullpen. The thing to focus on is the bat and defensive versatility, which will allow the Padres flexibility on other parts of the roster while Cronenworth performs like a 1.5 to 2 WAR sort of role player.

A combination of injury (back and shoulder) and the lack of an impact breaking ball were the primary drivers for Baez’s 2019 move to the the bullpen, and while the Padres planned on revisiting him as a starter this year, my long-term projection has him in relief. After he rehabbed from shoulder soreness in Extended, Baez went to Double-A and dominated for two months, working two innings at a time every fourth or fifth day. He was promoted to San Diego in late-July and fell just a few days shy of graduating from this list based on his non-September days on the roster. Though Baez now operates with two different breaking balls, neither projects to be an impact pitch. It’s possible he can still start anyway; Chris Paddack is close-at-hand evidence of this. But Baez doesn’t go at hitters with the same sort of efficiency as Paddack does, and his back and shoulder issues add to the relief likelihood, which is basked into his FV. The upshot here is still a league-average No. 4 starter but I think late-inning relief is more probable.

Similar to how they’ve experimented with Ty France at second base as a way of shoehorning his bat into the big league lineup, the Padres gave Potts a few reps at the keystone in 2019, and it’s one of a few reasons I’m not inclined to move off of him despite his whiff-prone campaign. The other is that we’re still talking about a college-aged player who was pushed through the system quickly, and whose 2019 struggles came at Double-A Amarillo, where Potts was just 20 years old, nearly four year younger than the average Texas League player. His low-end outcome is still in the Juan Francisco/Matt Davidson realm, while a middle-of-the-road projection is that of a big power/low on-base four corners role player, and the high end is now a shift-aided, multi-positional infielder with more power than is typical for that type of role.

Because he shares mechanical similarities with many pitchers whose fastballs overachieve relative to their velocity, I’m fairly confident that Cantillo can succeed even if his heater continues to live in the 87-91 mph range, though because he’s a big-framed 20-year-old, he may yet throw harder. If that’s the case, he could have a dominant fastball. He also has a changeup that is plus right now. Not only does it have bat-missing movement but Cantillo’s arm speed really sells hitters on the notion that they’re getting a fastball; A-ball bats flailed at it in 2019. The carry on his fastball enables Cantillo to compete for swinging strikes in the zone, and that, plus his ability to throw lots of competitively-located changeups mean he can work back into any count. His breaking ball usage is ahead of its quality, something that might change if Cantillo does start throwing harder and adds power to his curve. The breaking ball and development of velo are now the two variables driving Cantillo’s potential future FV movement, but for now I think he has the tools to go right at hitters and be a No. 4/5 starter.

After two consecutive years of above-average offensive performance relative to his league and continued resolve that he is a viable defensive catcher, Hunt now looks like he has a real chance to be an everyday backstop. I’ve seen him pop as low as 1.88 on throws to second and, despite his size, he’s agile enough and has sufficient hands to receive and frame big league stuff. Hunt also has a contact-oriented approach at the plate, one that’s quite conservative (zero leg kick) and doesn’t take full advantage of his movement skills. It relies entirely on Hunt’s hands to generate power, and that will likely result is 12-ish homers and a bunch of doubles. It’s a second-division look to me, but I think there’s more ceiling on the game power if Hunt’s lower half gets more involved in his swing.

Weathers continues to present the industry with a tougher-than-usual evaluation. As an amateur, perceptions about what his husky build would do to his athletic longevity fought with his underlying athleticism and stuff, both of which were very strong. After a dominant beginning to his first full pro season, Weathers’ stuff seeped away and he was eventually shut down with a dead arm and missed most of May. When he returned, the mid-90s heat from early in the year did not, and Weathers’ strikeout rate fell during the dog days. When I saw him later during instructs, he sat 86-90 for much of his outing, albeit with excellent command. This spring, before the shutdown, Weathers was once again living in the mid-90s. The hard-throwing version of Weathers has mid-rotation upside, while the soft-tossing version would be a secondary pitch and command-oriented backend starter. This evaluation splits the difference.

This is what the upper crust of international free agents look like, those for whom a Goldilocks Zone of development exists. Preciado is a strapping 6-foot-4 and has infield hands, feet, and actions, which means he may grow into huge power as that frame fills out but remain agile enough to stay at short, which would make him a superstar. Though that outcome is not the likeliest (based on how Preciado is built, I have him projected to third and think he’ll end up there before he reaches the bigs), the several that exists below that optimal scenario are still very good. Preciado has precocious barrel feel for a 16-year-old hitter his size, let alone one who switch-hits. He’s not very balanced, especially from the right side, comfort that hopefully comes with reps.

Arias looks like a stud at 5 o’clock when he’s taking batting practice and infield, but his in-game swing decisions have been a problem, and were even during a statistically impressive 2019. The Padres threw every developmental trick in the book at him during the offseason, including virtual reality training, to try to get him to better identify balls from strikes and chase less often. In a small spring sample, it appeared to be working — Arias played some spring games in the place of Fernando Tatis Jr., who was one of several Padres to miss time with flu-like symptoms during the spring (tugs collar) before baseball shut down. The importance of Arias’ approach extends beyond his on base ability to his power production. His swing is grooved, making the parts of the zone where he can do real damage limited, so for Arias to get to his power in games he’s not only going to have to recognize balls and strikes, but also learn what he can actually hit. It’s possible this will occur, and Arias will be a star if it does, but I think an Orlando Arcia trajectory, where there are growing pains and frustration amid flashes of spectacle, is more likely.

Acquired from Boston for Drew Pomeranz in July 2016, Espinoza has only thrown 32 innings of affiliated ball for the Padres since the deal. Espinoza was 94-97 and flashed a plus changeup and curveball during his final spring training start of 2017. Between that outing and his first regular season start for Hi-A Lake Elsinore, he felt discomfort in his elbow and was shut down. After several weeks of rest and rehab, it was decided that he needed Tommy John surgery, which he had early in August. The timing wasn’t great, and Espinoza missed all of 2018 working back from surgery, then re-tore his elbow during the spring of 2019 and needed a second TJ. He has front-end stuff but even if it returns, he’ll have missed three years of reps he desperately needed to polish his below-average control, increasing the likelihood that he’s a reliever or backend starter.

Munoz’s arm action evokes Joel Zumaya, Billy Wagner, and Craig Kimbrel‘s. His limb whips around at such speed and with such flexibility that it almost skips past enthralling and strikes one as grotesque, but the heat that emanates from his right arm is among the best in pro baseball. He’ll routinely sit 97-99 and has touched as high as 103 (the slo-mo pitch in the linked video was 100 mph). It’s a blistering, elite pitch that had upper-level hitters taking flaccid, defeated swings this spring, and helped Munoz strike out two hitters per inning early on in 2019.

He has yet to harness the fastball and throw consistent strikes (he’s walking a batter per inning, too) and his breaking ball quality is also inconsistent. If both of those issues improve, Munoz will be an elite relief option. If one of them does, he’s probably still a high-leverage arm, just one who makes you sweat after surrendering a couple of walks. If neither do, then Munoz will go the way of some other recent fastball-only prospects like this, such as Thyago Vieira and Mauricio Cabrera. Tommy John in late March of 2020 means Munoz likely returns to action late during the 2021 season.

Ornelas underwent a swing overhaul in 2019 in an effort to get him to lift the ball more, and things came undone. Pre-change Ornelas cut down at the ball, had a big leg kick, and a deep, high spot where his hands loaded. New-swing Ornelas had less of a kick, and his hands loaded out away from him a little bit, but were still high, and he was still cutting down at the ball. It’s possible that Ornelas can’t hit for sufficient power to profile at first base without a swing change and that there are more woes to come, but he is a reputable worker, and he has plenty of juice and a pretty advanced feel for balls and strikes. I think the band of potential outcomes is narrower because premium game power seems less likely now that relevant adjustments are not manifesting in games, but there’s still a big league hitter here somewhere.

Even in center field, there really aren’t any impact regulars who don’t hit for at least some power, and barring something unforeseen, I think the lack of thump will keep Rosario from being a true everyday player despite his very interesting, and in some ways very special, skillset. This guy walked in nearly 17% of his Hi-A plate appearances last year as just a teenager, and he has a chance to be a special defender in center field. Rosario is also very tough to get to swing-and-miss in the zone, but some of that is because he’s very conservatively poking, slapping, and slashing soft contact all over the infield and not really trying to hit for power. I think he’s one of the minor league’s more entertaining players because he’s often at the center of plays that have the very specific baseball aesthetic I enjoy, and I hope he gets a chance to be someone’s 8-hole hitter in the NL so he can take advantage of being pitched around and walk a ridiculous amount. Realistically, he’s a low-end regular in center field, or some sort of weird meta-game role player if the plus defense finally materializes.

Marcano is tracking a lot like Rosario, except as a middle infielder. He too has nearly elite feel for contact but lacks power, and in Marcano’s case, he’s just such a rail that I don’t think much will ever come. This high-contact, up-the-middle sort is traditionally undervalued, but I think I’ve blindly overcorrected for that in recent years. That’s why I’ve folded more of the visual physical components back into evals like this and now have separation between short but muscular players like Vidal Brujan and Brayan Rocchio, and the more slender Jose Devers and Marcano types.

Perez is a physical teenage outfielder with a more mature frame and an athletic swing that reminds me of Spencer Torkelson’s (visually, not in terms of the raw power). Perez can tag fastballs at the top of the zone but has a tendency to be very upright in his legs and swing over top of curveballs he might be able to go down and lift if he were more flexible. Even though he doesn’t have significant, frame-based power projection, I think he has a chance to hit enough to be a regular in a corner.

Some teams moved off of Lawson when he had some injury issues as a high school senior, but the Padres found themselves flush with pool money after taking underslot prospects (Hudson Potts and Eric Lauer) late in the first round, which enabled them to give Lawson $1.9 million in the second, $1 million above slot. Lawson filled out, began throwing harder, added power to a curveball that has ticked up nearly 10 mph since he was an amateur, and stayed healthy until May of 2019 when he was shut down and given a PRP injection in his elbow. He made a few Fall League appearances during which he looked fine, sitting 93-96 with the usual above-average curveball and sinking, mid-80s changeup. Then this spring, after a big league outing against the Cubs, Lawson was shut down again and eventually opted for Tommy John surgery in late-March. He had No. 4/5 starter projection before the surgery, which now increases the odds that he eventually works out of the bullpen.

As Guerra struck out more and more during his final few seasons as a shortstop — he K’ed in at least 30% of his at-bats each year since the Padres acquired him from Boston as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal — he frequently appeared despondent, sullen, and visibly affected by his struggles in ways that were often obvious and concerning. While his defensive actions remained enticing — especially around the bag, they were some of the smoothest and quickest some scouts had ever seen — Guerra also became error-prone. He seemed a mess, a potential DFA candidate.

Last spring, Guerra moved to the mound. His first bullpen session, which took place in front of a very small contingent of Padres front office folks, was electric. The first fastball was clocked by Rapsodo at 97 mph, and a few fastballs later, Guerra touched 100.4 mph. I saw an early iteration of Guerra when he was 95-98 with natural cut and had pretty impressive slider feel for someone who has only been pitching for a few weeks. The Padres reconfigured his fastball and it’s now a two-seamer with huge armside movement, enough that in 2020 spring games it was making lefty hitters flinch and stare at pitches that ran back across the inside corner. When conversion projects like this work out in a big way it typically happens quickly, and Guerra’s had rapid success.

The wave of teenage talent currently at Hi-A drove San Diego to push Miller straight to Double-A to start his first full season, and he rose to the occasion, hitting .290/.355/.430 with more power than the industry anticipated. A minimalistic swing enables him to make high rates of contact, while the strength in Miller’s hands generates doubles power. It’s not an exciting, athletic style of hitting but on an inoffensive, fundamentally sound defensive shortstop, it’s a pretty interesting skillset. Barring a significant swing change, Miller’s offensive output will likely cap his ceiling in the 40/45 FV range, but for a third round pick who moves quickly, that’s a great outcome.

Mena was bullied by some older instructional league pitchers, especially ones with ugly, deceptive deliveries, but he’s clearly a plus runner with a great chance to stay in center field and has some promising bat-to-ball qualities. Chief among them is plate coverage. Mena will reach out and spoil pitches on the corner away from him, and he’ll hit the ball hard the other way if it catches too much of the plate. He was billed as a leadoff type center fielder by his proponents on the amateur side.

About a year ago, Ruiz was a Pick to Click who I anticipated would be on this year’s top 100. Instead, his offseason included him being passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. I didn’t make a Ruiz-to-Alfonso Soriano comp casually last year: he swing looks similar and I’ve seen pole-to-pole power from Ruiz in the past, as well as the speed to steal a bunch of bags. Some of his issues are approach-related, but there are other components affecting the bat-to-ball issues that became worse last year, and Ruiz also has defensive questions that might force him to the outfield (another Soriano parallel).

The barrel-chested Bednar has developed a good split in pro ball, making him an excellent three-pitch option out of the bullpen, probably one who will be rostered all year rather than being constantly optioned. He throws in the mid-90s (he was 89-92 as a starter in college) and has a snappy, 12-6 curveball. The curveball is probably what got him drafted, while the fastball/split development are driving a modern relief profile.

Despite his fantasy-relevant stats — he has averaged 15 homers and 25 steals the last three years — I’ve been skeptical about Olivares truly having everyday tools. But now he’s performed up through Double-A and the 40-man center field picture is suddenly very different for this team. I’m still not buying the power production — I don’t see 15-20 homer bat speed here — but rather a contact/defense fourth outfielder.

Shoulder surgery derailed what might have been a breakout year for Oña, who averaged 93 mph off the bat during his torrid 25-game, pre-surgery sprint. We don’t know a lot about the hitting environment in Amarillo but it seems favorable based on Oña, Olivares, and Miller’s lines. There’s an interesting power/speed blend here but it’s still a corner outfield fit with some swing-and-miss issues. Oña homered in his only big league spring start before the shutdown.

It’s not often that “hard-throwing” and “kitchen sink” end up in the same player report but here is Bolaños, who will touch 99 (sit 94) and work with both four and two-seamers, plus a slider, curveball, changeup, and even a mythic, rare eephus curveball in the upper-60s. Among them is no clear out pitch, a problem if Bolaños ends up in the bullpen. His walk rates had been toward the high-end of what’s typically acceptable for starters. There’s a puncher’s chance he’ll find something new — a split maybe? I think Bolaños’ delivery has a Jose Contreras look to it and he ends up as a set-up type. Otherwise he’s a fifth starter.

Avila has No. 4/5 starter stuff when healthy, but he had Tommy John in August and we won’t see him again until 2021.

It’s pronounced “Eggy,” and Rosario is nearly as versatile, occupying all four infield spots at points last year. The Padres had assigned Rosario to play several levels above what is typical at his age, but finally asked him to repeat a level in 2019 when he was again in Lake Elsinore. There he had a career offensive season and won’t turn 21 until August. He profiles as a utility infielder.

He’s been held behind his fellow 2016 class members because Barley’s on-field decision-making and consistency are taking longer to cook. He still makes the occasional highlight reel defensive play, runs 4.10, or hits a 420-foot bomb, and as long as he’s doing that stuff, he’ll have a home on these lists. For now, that Barley both went to an affiliate and performed there was a big step.

One of many strong $300,000 signees from the Padres’ two IFA periods following their 2016 spending spree, Aquino is now where Yeison Santana was a year ago — a wiry frame who will likely stay at shortstop and has a chance to grow into meaningful offensive ability. Aquino has a good first step and plus defensive hands and actions, but he was clearly one of the more physically immature players on the complex last fall and would have needed to be stronger just to have competed in the AZL.

Mears was uncommitted when he arrived at Area Codes, then proceeded to have one of the best weeks of any of the players at the showcase and left knowing he had earned much more than a scholarship. Mears has huge power, and many teams did have second round grades on him (he was picked at 48, paid like it was 66, and Kiley and I had him close to 150), but I think there’s a big gap between where his feel to hit is right now, and where it needs to be for him to profile. It’s so much power that Mears could conceivably profile even if he strikes out a lot but walks, but I don’t think the barrel feel to support a Franmil Reyes-ish, swing-happy profile exists.

A source told me Dwanya averaged 101 off the bat as a junior at East Carolina, strong evidence of both physical prowess and that small conference pitching can help create caricature. Dwanya does have big raw power (his 2019 output was likely hampered by a wrist injury that necessitated an IL stint) and runs well, but has a high-risk hit tool.

Among the many $300k-ish pitchers San Diego signed in 2017, Guarate has the most projectable frame. His breaking ball has depth and power and could be plus at maturity, especially if he continues to add mass and throw harder. Guarate is also somewhat advanced, enough that the Padres gave him a cookie Low-A start late last summer.

Texas-Brownsville shuttered their baseball program before Reyes was able to take the field for them, and he ended up transferring to Galveston College. He spent his sophomore year at Galveston injured, then went undrafted as a junior. He was discovered by the Rays at a workout near the U.S./Mexico border and later signed, then was traded to San Diego as part of the Wil Myers blockbuster. He’s a low-slot bullpen slinger with a tailing, upper-90s fastball, and his arm slot creates issues for righties. He needs to refine command of the breaking ball to better deal with lefties, but just on arm strength and fastball movement, he’ll likely continue to see big league time.

Wilson has rapidly emerged as a potential bullpen piece thanks largely to his fastball, which tops out at 97 and benefits from big extension, spin rate, and a favorable axis. The Padres accelerated his track last year by skipping him over Double-A. He profiles as a middle reliever.

It’s rare for a pro team to have an opportunity to develop a two-way player from the ground up, and consider how the developmental freedom of pro baseball might allow the club to improve on the college models. A “backwards” prospect who hits righty and throws lefty, Salinas has fairly polished feel to pitch off what is presently 40/45 stuff, is built like a typecast prom king, and has a contact and instincts skillset as a hitter. The two-way curiosities to go through San Diego now include Salinas, Christian Bethancourt, Cronenworth, with it perhaps discussed regarding Javier Guerra.

No velo bump yet for Feliz, a super-athletic converted shortstop with a delivery that look’s like a toy version of Aroldis Chapman’s. The Padres acquired him on 40-man crunch day from Cleveland for depth starter Walker Lockett. Feliz’s fastball has natural cut, which might be something the Padres will look to change. Regardless of that and his other skills (mostly the quality breaking ball), Feliz needs to throw harder. I think he will, in this case because of the level of athleticism rather than the frame. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Another small-school, Day Three reliever who looks like a real bullpen piece, Fox hides the ball well, throws hard, and has a power, 12-to-6 curveball.

It’s not as if he’s without physical ability, but Solarte is an instincts-first player. He has feel for contact and center field, where I think he could be an impact defender. Whether he ends up with enough power to play every day is very much TBD, as Solarte is a smaller-framed player.

Throwing just 81-86 when he signed, Gonzalez enjoyed a velocity spike and is now topping out at 94, and the fastball has enough carry to play in the zone because of its spin rate and axis. He was flashing above-average curveballs and changeups in the fall. I’m not optimistic that much more velo is coming because Gonzalez is already pretty rocked up and muscular for someone his age, but the carry on the heater makes that matter less.

Heredia grew up playing soccer in Spain before he moved to the Dominican Republic during adolescence, at which point he was introduced to baseball. He presents kind of an old school look: no batting gloves, proactively choking up on the bat, an all-fields approach to contact. And he’s grown into some power as his frame has filled out, mostly in the lower half. The feel for contact is impressive considering the limited baseball background, and is what will likely need to carry the profile forward.

You’re going to read about a lot of small-framed teenage pitchability sorts who occupy rotation spots at the bottom of this system. Among those, Martinez has the best secondary pitch duo in his low-80s slider and power mid-80s change, both of which flash bat-missing movement. Unlikely to ever develop more velo, Martinez could end up a rotation stalwart based on his command and offspeed stuff.

Up to 94 as a high school underclassman, Thompson was tracking like a traditional first round Texas high school arm until he had Tommy John and missed all but one game during his senior year. He was a wild card on draft day, but ended up going in the third round, signing for early second round money ($1.7 million). During his first pro summer, Thompson’s fastball velocity climbed from the 88-91 range up to the 92-94 area. Then shoulder and biceps issues plagued his first two full pro seasons and his stuff was down in 2018. Last spring, he was throwing harder than ever, sitting 94-97 at times, and showing better breaking stuff than he had previously. He struggled to harness that stuff and had two more injury stints in 2019, limiting Thompson to just shy of 30 innings. He’s a prospect of extreme risk and variance who has shown 40+ FV stuff in short spurts.

Miller traversed three levels last year and was invited to big league camp in 2020. He profiles as a sinker/slider middle reliever whose option years are used to keep the ‘pen fresh.

Vosler is a lefty corner power bat with limited defensive mobility. He could be a power bat off someone’s bench if given the opportunity.

Built like a muscle car, Guilbe has electric bat speed and exciting pull-side power for a player his age. Already very muscular and strong, he needs to develop on defense (he played the middle infield when I saw him as an amateur, played third and left field last year, and some scouts want to see him catch) and probably needs a swing overhaul (both the bat path and lower half usage were pretty rough in high school), but there’s a chance he’s a power-hitting multi-positional player.

Miliano remains well-built, throws in the mid-90s, has a good-looking curveball, and has mechanical fluidity that makes it look like he should eventually repeat his delivery (though he does not right now and struggles with walks). He’s a relief prospect at this point.

Medina’s velo popped late during the amateur process and he was touching the mid-90s before he signed, though his heater was sitting a little below that, mostly 91-92, when he threw in Arizona during the fall. His delivery is somewhat violent but it’s coming from a vertical slot that also creates depth on his curveball.

He swung and missed a lot during his showcase summer but Witt’s subsequent fall and spring were strong enough to make him second overall pick of the 2019 draft class. His skillset compares quite closely to Trevor Story‘s. There are going to be some strikeouts but Witt is a big, athletic specimen who is very likely to not only stay at shortstop but be quite good there. He also has a swing geared for pull side lift (he can bend at the waist to go down and yank balls away from him, too) and the power to hit balls out even when he swings a little flat-footed. He is the son of a former big leaguer and carries himself like one, which has endeared him to scouts and coaches during the course of a high-profile amateur career laden with very high expectations. His debut statline lacked power on the surface, but the batted ball data suggests we shouldn’t worry.

On the Cape and in the first half of his junior spring, Lynch looked like a solid third round prospect, a pitchability lefty sitting 88-92 mph with mostly average stuff, and above-average feel and command. In the month or so leading up to the draft, Lynch’s velo ticked up, and down the stretch he sat 92-94, touching 95 mph deep into starts, with an assortment of offspeed pitches that all flashed above-average. The track record of Virginia arms is concerning, but Lynch seemed less beholden to the issues traditionally associated with their prospects, with some scouts considering him endearingly rebellious.

He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that all flash above-average, with the slider occasionally flashing plus. He was 93-95 last year, and while Lynch missed a month and a half with an arm injury last summer, all of that velo and more was back in the fall, so the velo uptick has held for nearly a year now. He’s a No. 4 starter.

A dominant junior year would have had Bubic in the late first round mix, but his control backed up, especially late in the year. He ended up being a great buy-low value pick for Kansas City as not only did the strikes return, but Bubic was throwing a little harder, too.

He’s far more likely to hang around the 50/45 FV membrane during the rest of his time in the minors than he is to move way up the list, because even though my notes have Bubic up to 95 last year, he still lives in the low-90s and succeeds because of deception and his terrific secondary stuff. I prefer his changeup and curveball to the bat-missing weapons of other arms in Kansas City’s system (Jackson Kowar has a great change and throws a heavy sinker that doesn’t miss bats, while Brady Singer is a sinker/command guy) and think Bubic will be a No. 4.

Well-regarded in high school in part because of his very loose and athletic (if somewhat unusual) delivery, the Blue Jays drafted Singer in the 2015 second round. Negotiations broke down, one of several times a high school pitcher has been at odds with an org run by current Braves GM Alex Anthopolous, and Singer went to Florida. After an uneven but promising freshman year in the bullpen, Singer’s command improved and he carved up SEC lineups for the next two years.

His stuff and delivery don’t have the look of a dominant, whiff-getting major league starter, at least not at the moment. He has a lower, three-quarters delivery that helps create long tail on his two-seamer, but the pitch only resides in the 91-94 mph area, a 45 raw velocity that I think plays a bit better because of the movement. His low-80s slurve/slider (when it’s down below hitters’ knees it has more length) gets buffed by Singer’s command and also plays up above its raw quality. Singer is a spiky competitor who goes right at hitters and at times has demonstrative body language when he’s frustrated with umpires, which are generally traits the industry likes. On talent, he’s a No. 4/5 type of starter for me, and any change to that will be determined by how Singer’s changeup, which he barely used in college, develops in pro ball. The (+) designation on Singer’s FV comes from his track record of durability, and his potential to eat a ton of innings and have a higher WAR output than you’d think given his stuff alone.

As an amateur, Peña was billed as a well-rounded, instinctive player with a frame that portended a fair amount of additional mass. Though not as overtly projectable as the Kristian Robinson/Alexander Ramirez sorts, Peña was clearly going to grow into some power and, based on how he hit in games and played center field, was thought to have a strong chance to become a well-rounded player, perhaps a five-tool sort, with all the tools close to average. It was surprising then that Peña arrived for his first fall instructional league looking like an NFL cornerback, with one source going so far as to tell me they think Peña has a big league body right now.

Even though his swing is a bit clunky, and his footwork is perhaps unnecessarily conservative, Peña looked pretty comfortable against pro pitching in the fall, the best pitching he’s ever faced in his life to this point; his performance included him roping a single off of Michael Kopech, who was sitting 97 that day. The surprising physicality has already brought about more power and bat speed, and Peña already has the helicopter overhead finish to his swing à la Miguel Andújar and Wander Franco. Once the industry becomes more confident in grading his defense and bat, which will come once he’s faced pro pitching for an extended period of time, he could be a global top 50 prospect based on his place on the defensive spectrum and the hit/power combination.

“What’s the difference between this guy and Chris Paddack?” That was the question put to me about Kowar by a source for this list. On some level, they’re right. Like Paddack, Kowar has a prototypical frame, he throws in the mid-90s, and has a dominant changeup. What we now know about how and why fastballs play, however, creates some separation between the two. Though Kowar has premium starter fastball velocity, the pitch has tailing/sinking action rather than Paddack-style carry and ride, which means it’s going to generate groundballs more than it will miss bats.

Kowar’s breaking ball was comfortably below average in college but the Royals have found a way to add raw spin since acquiring him (his rates are up from 2150 rpm to 2400, still shy of big league average but an encouraging development), and it’s closer to average now. He’ll likely rely on the element of surprise and his ability to locate it in order to be effective. This is all very similar to how Luke Weaver’s reports read coming out of Florida State, and I expect Kowar to have a similar career. He’s a 23-year-old who’s thrown half a season above A-ball, so while I think he’ll be a 50 FV eventually, there needs to be a little gap between him and someone like him who’s ready for the big leagues right now.

You should feel free to toss out Isbel’s 2019 regular season statistical performance. After a red hot first few weeks of the season — .348/.423/.630 — he pulled a hamstring, and shortly after he returned to game action in Extended, he broke his hamate and was shelved again until mid-July. As is typical for hitters coming back from that injury, Isbel’s numbers were poor — .216/.282/.361 overall at Wilmington — and improved the further away from surgery he got, culminating in a strong back half of August and Fall League; his Fall League look especially assuaged concerns.

Isbel has a compact swing (he’s a shorter-levered guy) with line drive plane. It’s geared to do most of its big damage to his pull side, but he can slice extra-base contact down the left field line and into the left-center field gap. Isbel is still relatively new to playing the outfield full-time, which gives him some late projection on the defensive end. I think he’ll be easily supplanted by a superior defensive center fielder but will be a plus corner defender long-term, and I’m intrigued by the idea of him playing a situational second base since he has some experience there, too. He projects as an average everyday corner outfielder.

Lee had yet another fairly strong year — .264/.363/.372 with a 12% walk rate and a whopping 53 steals (fantasy folks: I’m not betting on that continuing) — spending 2019 at Double-A Northwest Arkansas as a young 21-year-old. He has the tools of a three-true-outcomes right fielder, potentially one who plays above-average defense, but the quality of his at-bats against elite competition has been mixed, at best. It’s likely going to take a swing adjustment to get Lee hitting for relevant power in games. His swing is long, and on pitches he impacts toward the top of the zone, it cuts downward. This causes Lee to be late on good velocity and drive a lot of pitches into the ground. He’s still young enough to make these and other adjustments, but I have Lee projected as the larger half of a right field platoon rather than a true everyday player.

Cox is a black sheep pitching prospect in an org that has more per capita sinker ballers than perhaps any in the sport. This is a lefty with power relief stuff, at least, and a chance to start based on the depth of his pitch mix and the rate of strikes he’s thrown so far. I think Cox’s fastball would tick up into the mid-90s if he were ever put in the bullpen, which at this rate only seems likely to happen if his breaking balls end up running together, something Cox has worked to mitigate as a pro. He held his velocity last year despite a 20-inning workload increase, his results were not diluted even after he was moved to Hi-A for the back half of last year, and in just two years, he’s gone from a Day Three pick to someone who has the FV of a typical second rounder. Whether Cox ends up pitching toward the back of a rotation or as some kind of fire-breathing, multi-inning reliever (that’s where I’ve got him, and his future value grade reflects that), he’s a huge coup for Kansas City’s amateur department and player dev program.

There are Ed Wood movies that seem to have gone according to plan more than 2019 did for Royals hitters at Hi-A Wilmington. Chief among them was Melendez, who was on initial drafts of our top 100 last year before Kiley and my team sources squashed that with their feedback, citing Melendez’s red flag contact issues. They were right. Melendez struck out a damning 40% of the time last year. His swing is geared for low ball contact at a point in time when pitchers are attacking hitters at the top of the zone more than ever, and Melendez gets heat blown past him at the letters constantly.

Everything else that scouts loved about him as an amateur is still extant. He has plus raw power, great long-term body projection, a plus arm, and projects to have a 55 glove, which is beneath the 60 or 70 grades he was garnering in high school but is still a relevant positive. We’re now looking at a likely backup catcher based on how scary the contact issues are, but if the swing issues are fixed, Melendez could really break out because the physical tools that the swing compromises are rare for the position. There are teams/scouts for which Melendez, Pratto, and Matias are just a “no” based on the way they’ve performed with the bat. I’m holding out varying degrees of hope for them, still preferring Melendez because his defense gives him a fallback big league role even if the hit tool never develops enough for him to be a regular.

Only six teams played traditional instructional league games in Arizona last fall, and perhaps no pitcher who threw in the desert created as much buzz as Hernandez, who was filling the zone with 94-98 mph fastballs over shorter, three-ish inning outings. Hernandez has had premium velocity since he signed, but has averaged just five innings per start and 67 innings per season since 2017. Two of the three times Hernandez has missed time have been due to issues unrelated to his arm, so injuries themselves are not a concern for me so much as I’m skeptical that he can live in the mid-90s over a full season starter’s workload.

He doesn’t have a cut, athletic physique, and his delivery is reliever-y and somewhat stiff, but Hernandez does repeat, and throws a lot of strikes. His breaking ball has vertical action that enables it to outperform its raw spin rate but it is reliant on his command, which again, during the fall Hernandez had. I’ve seen backfield outings during which I thought his changeup was his best secondary but that’s not typically the case. It’s possible he can start, but I don’t consider it likely, and Hernandez certainly hasn’t proven it yet. If that’s the case, then one of the secondary pitches needs to develop still, which all the missed time has made harder.

With few exceptions (Joey Gallo is one) even the most whiff-prone big leaguers struck out less than Matias (35% career K%, a comical 44% last year before a broken hand ended his season) when they were in the minors. But Matias’ physicality and bat speed are so supreme, the gap between his talent and that of most players so obvious, that there’s a chance he can be one of the exceptions, even if it’s in a streaky, inconsistent manner.

As a teen, Seuly was already posting exit velocities on par with burly, Quad-A type hitters. Most of the issues he has are mental; his swing decisions and defensive instincts are both poor. My sources tend to be pessimistic about improvements/corrections to approach and aptitude, though perhaps that’s because they can’t see those things with their eyes, the tool they use most often and confidently to do the majority of their job. Many of the players ranked beneath Seuly here have a better chance than he does of playing some kind of big league role, but none of them have his ceiling, and based on his age, frame, and athleticism, I’m holding out some hope that he shows us what it is for a few years.

Zuber was arguably a priority senior sign as a sixth rounder, a distinction he earned when his stuff spiked following a permanent move to the bullpen. His arm is so fast as to almost look subliminal, and Zuber’s command of both breaking balls is much better than one expects from a college relief prospect. His changeup usage has been inconsistent over the last two years but at times it’s a quality pitch, and one Zuber seemed to be rebooting during the spring with some success. Zuber doesn’t have any one dominant pitch, as is typical of high-leverage relievers, but he does have several very good ones that I think will enable him to be a seventh or eighth inning type of arm.

McConnell is polarizing, much more so than is typical for a prospect who has been on the radar since his underclass high school days. In part because he was old for his graduating class, and also because there were concerns about his ability to make contact, teams didn’t meet McConnell’s high school asking price and he ended up at Florida. That’s exactly the sort of place players like him can go to reinforce confidence in their bat, but McConnell barely played as a freshman and was old enough to be draft eligible as a sophomore, and so by draft time there was relatively little data to fight the skepticism concerning his.

But he’s also got above-average raw power, plus speed, and can play shortstop (he was listed as an outfielder on the instructs roster but did not play), so he can still be a valuable player even if the bat falls short of average and his ceiling is sizable if it gets better than that. If you’ve read the list in order before arriving at McConnell’s blurb, you know this org has had trouble with players who have swing-and-miss issues upon their arrival in the system. I’m not optimistic McConnell hits enough to be a regular, and I think a multi-positional bench role is more likely.

Bowlan saw an uptick in velocity just before the 2018 draft, but his stuff backed up after he signed. Kiley and I moved him down the org list too soon, thinking the pre-draft velo bump was an anomaly. In 2019, Bowlan came out with a fastball in the 91-95 mph range, topped out at 97, and threw 65% of his pitches for strikes. Though his secondary stuff is quite average, his ability to locate his slider exactly where he wants to most of the time means it plays better than that. There’s some long-term concern about Bowlan’s hulking build, but for now he profiles as a strike-throwing backend starter.

Perhaps a swing change away from a mid-20s breakout, Gutierrez has the highest average exit velo in this system but among its lowest average launch angles. The makeup of his offensive DNA (plus contact, an aggressive approach) as currently constituted would play in a reserve role, some kind of 3B/1B platoon that also includes good defense. The Maikel Franco signing was a potential impediment to that.

Marsh was in the mix for teams as early as the middle of the 2019 second round, so he’s yet another college arm value pick by a Royals org that has taken a bushel of them throughout the last several drafts. He has a middling four-pitch mix that plays when he’s commanding his breaking stuff. He could be a No. 4/5 starter.

A source who saw Kansas City’s DSL group thought Candelario was the best of the bunch. He has a relatively projectable frame, great body control and arm strength, and looks likely to stay at shortstop and might be plus there. His bat speed is also plus. But Candelario has some swing and miss tendencies as a result of both his age and switch-hitting swing rawness, and also has a propensity to swing a lot. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop prospect with some power but a high-risk bat.

Be careful with this one. Haake was in our 2018 Draft top 50 coming out of the fall before his junior year because he was working with absolutely nasty stuff while at Kentucky. The next spring, he had trouble holding that stuff deep into starts, creating doubt that he could start at all. A flexor strain (2018) and shoulder soreness (2019) add to that risk. But Haake does indeed have nasty stuff, up to 98 with the fastball and a slider that has plus movement but is rarely well-located. There’s late-inning relief potential here, but that was true when Haake was in college and he still fell to the sixth round.

Free of the context of his high school stardom, pro scouts barely see Pratto as a prospect. A two-way high schooler with a polished approach and a modest but effectual hit/power combination, Pratto has thus far fallen short as a pro hitter, striking out more than the amateur side of the industry anticipated while generating fringe power. Even terrific defensive first basemen like Pratto have to mash, and produce from both a contact and power perspective, to profile at the position. Even though his in-zone contact rates are less concerning than his disappointing peers Melendez and Matias, Pratto still struck out at an alarming 35% clip in 2019 and his exit velos do not reinforce the notion that there’s untapped, underlying power that will profile at first base. Some of his poor performance should just be chalked up to an aggressive assignment, but Pratto’s prospectdom is officially in danger.

Even though he has advanced feel for contact, the Royals have been pretty conservative with Garcia’s developmental track because he’s still so wiry thin and lacking physicality. I’m betting on the frame producing more power long-term, enough that Garcia might be a low-end regular at shortstop.

Collins is an imposing physical presence with uncommon ball/strike recognition and feel to hit for someone his age. He also tracks pitches well, has precocious barrel control, and natural feel for lift. Collins hit for power in the AZL thanks to his feel for quality contact and raw strength, but his lower half isn’t well-incorporated into his swing yet, so I think there’s room for more in-game power via mechanical adjustment rather than through lots of physical growth. Because Collins is already pretty big and strong (though it’s important to note he’s limber and athletic, not bulky and stiff), he doesn’t have as much physical room on his frame as is typical for a hitter this age, but he does have a little bit. The positional limitations create greater risk of bust because Collins needs to really mash to profile as a corner outfielder, but early indications are that he’s talented enough to do that.

At his best, Gambrell sits in the mid-90s with a plus breaking ball and a tailing, mid-80s changeup that he uses in some clever ways, including as a means to jam righties. His stuff has been inconsistent and he missed considerable time with injury during college, which creates some relief risk. His stuff plays in a more traditional power pitcher style than most of the sinkerballers in this org.

McBroom was one of several upper-level sluggers who the Yankees acquired, seemingly to build depth behind oft-injured first baseman Greg Bird. The emergence of Luke Voit meant the club could move McBroom to a rebuilding team willing to take a flier on an older stopgap, and the Royals traded international bonus pool space for him last summer. It’s likely that, given his age, McBroom’s window for productivity as some kind of part-time first base/outfield platoon bat is relatively small, but he does have the hit/power combination needed to succeed in such a role for a couple of years.

He doesn’t throw all that hard, but Neuweiler’s control and command are both improving (he arguably has late projection in that regard because of his cold weather prep background) and his heater sinks enough to keep hitters from destroying it every time he misses. He also has two great secondary pitches in a knuckle slurve that spans a pretty wide velocity band in the upper-70s and low-to-mid-80s, and a change with late bottom that spins so little I’ve got it classified as a splitter; I’m not exactly sure what kind of grip he uses, though the improvement is so stark that he may have a fresh grip altogether now. I’m optimistic about more control/command coming late and think Neuweiler will end up pitching in the back of a rotation.

Morel had just arrived in the U.S. last year when the Nationals sent him to Kansas City as part of the Kelvin Herrera trade. At age 17, Morel performed against older competition while being asked to adjust to a new country and parent organization at the same time. His stuff was still strong in the fall, when he was 90-94 with a mid-80s, split-action changeup that was often plus. He’s not physically projectable, but he’s athletic and has some traits typical of sinker/changeup-centric rotation pieces, and his breaking ball spin rates indicate he may have an average breaker one day, too. That would make it easier for him to start.

Now 21, Guzman has filled out and developed 45 raw power while maintaining excellent defense at shortstop. He has yet to play anywhere else, but because he falls short of profiling as a regular there on the offensive end, it’s likely he starts to see time at other positions soon — especially because he’s now on the 40-man — so he can be a versatile bench infield option.

Even though he’s 24, 2019 was only Hicklen’s second full year focusing solely on baseball, as he’d been a two-sport athlete of sorts at UAB, where he would have played football had the program been active while he was there. His statistical performance, despite his age, becomes much more impressive in this context. Hicklen has hit .280/.370/.470 as a pro. All of that has been in A-ball, save for the 2019 Fall League, during which Hicklen struggled. His swing is very short and linear and he generates sizable power anyway, but his bat path doesn’t really allow it to play. Barring a very late jump in skills and instincts, he’s a bench outfielder sort.

Massey was in the second round mix coming off his terrific sophomore year at Illinois before a back injury during his junior spring dulled his explosiveness and forced him to DH a bunch. He fell to the fourth round. He struck out in just 10% of his college plate appearances, plays a good second base, and has doubles power.

I think it’s possible that the Royals have begun to place some amount of evaluation emphasis on spin rate without also considering how pitches pair together, which is perhaps how they’ve ended up with several pitchers who have a sinker/curveball mix. Murdock is exactly that. The towering 6-foot-8 righty has huge sink in the low-90s and a sharp breaker. He posted insane groundball numbers during his junior spring at Virginia. His pitches are better in a vacuum than they are together, but there’s at least big league bullpen stuff here.

Acquired ahead of the 2019 deadline for Jake Diekman, Aquino is a young relief prospect whose profile is driven by arm strength. He’ll sit 93-97 and occasionally fool a hitter with his circle change, but everything else about him lacks consistency, especially his fastball command and breaking ball. The A’s toyed with a cutter for Aquino at one point but scrapped that a month or two before he was traded; it seems like the Royals brought it back after they acquired him, as the pitch went from the slidery low-80s into the 85-88 mph range.

After spending most of the past three seasons stagnant in Omaha, Staumont finally got about 20 big league innings last year. By now you know his stuff is ridiculous. He would sit 96-99 and touch 101 or 102 in college, and he also has a dastardly curveball, but he’s a six or seven walks per nine guy, and hasn’t been able to make headway in the control/command realm as a pro.

One of the more talented prospects cut loose by the Braves during their international scandal, Del Rosario’s fastball creeps into the mid-90s, and he has a good curveball and a sturdy build that is admittedly less projectable than is typical for a 19-year-old. His strike-throwing took a step forward in 2018, before he missed all of 2019 with a nerve issue. His profile already included fairly significant relief risk made more likely by the injury and how that compresses his developmental timeline.

Heasley was a draft-eligible sophomore who simply didn’t pitch all that well in college, the sort of player draft models are only on if they incorporate pitch data (Heasley’s slider spin rates are plus-plus), or if a scout likes the player despite mediocre performance, which is the case here. Heasley moved from the Oklahoma State bullpen to the rotation as a sophomore, but still walked a batter every other inning and gave up more hits than anyone with his quality of stuff should give up in college. It’s been night and day in pro ball, and Heasley now looks like a 40-man inventory arm, and may end up fitting cleanly as a fifth starter.

There have been stretches during Griffin’s pro career when either his command or velocity have slipped a tad, and he’s been knocked around. When both are fine, he’s a good pitchability lefty who feeds hitters a steady diet of secondary pitches. Often, this type of hurler becomes Tommy Milone, but Griffin’s curveball is a little better than that (though Milone has a good cutter); more often, this type of pitcher is used in a multi-inning relief role after a power pitcher has opened the game. Barring that, I have Griffin in as a No. 5/6 starter.

Parrish’s velo was on the rise just before the draft, averaging just over 90 for the first time in his career, but in the postseason was back to 87-91 when he had to rely more on his secondary stuff. That’s probably the approach he’ll need to take going forward, as both his changeup and curveball are better offerings than the heater. He projects as a fifth/sixth starter barring an unforeseen bump in velocity. It’s also possible the command ends up as plus and Parrish just grabs hold of a rotation spot of his own that way.

The Spanish-born Hernandez is an athletic catch-and-throw prospect with advanced contact skills but limited power projection because of his shorter build. Hernandez also has some experience at third base. He could be a plus hit/plus glove catcher but teenage catching is perhaps the riskiest prospect demographic.

Tillo is a low-slot, sinkerballing relief prospect whose lack of control undermines the playability of his secondary stuff. He’ll likely be up and down during his option years.

This is the hardest-throwing pitcher on this list, a teenager whose fastball is parked in the 94-97 range already. But the cement is pretty dry on Valerio’s frame, and his is a sinker/fringe slider profile that needs changeup and command growth for him to have any hope of starting. This is a long-term relief prospect with special arm strength for his age.

Lukas didn’t pitch at a rookie or short season affiliate after the draft but he was throwing absolute cheddar in the fall, touching 99 during instructs. He’s a bigger bodied guy in the young Jonathan Broxton/Sidney Ponson realm, so that’s worth keeping an eye on. Usable control and a secondary pitch need to develop, but because the velocity is so big, there’s a chance Lukas really pops.

Signed for $750,000, Florentino is a little spark plug with elite short-area quickness and transfer. His defensive range will play on the middle infield, though his arm might fit better at second. While Florentino has viable swings from both sides of the plate, his raw power projection is limited by his size.

Rave has tweener bench outfield tools. He’s a plus runner with a swing geared for low ball contact and he actually hit for power on the Cape, but the raw pop is south of average and we’re probably looking at a fourth outfielder here, unless Rave outhits my tool grades.

This is the prospect on the list whose attached video I’d most encourage readers to watch, since Jin’s genie-like ability to make his splitter slide out from between his fingers without rotating is incredible to watch on the high speed camera. He also throws a lot of them. Jin needs to reshape his build and throw harder to be anything, but he’s young enough that it might happen.

Like most Millenials, I share account passwords with friends and family to create a Megazord collection of streaming services while only actually paying for one or two. One of these shared logins is for a DAZN account I procured in order to enjoy the platform’s boxing archive, only to discover it had several classic MLB games as well. Among these is footage of Miguel Cabrera’s big league debut, which I put on one fall night as I prepared to cut up Fall League video of Julio Rodriguez taken earlier in the day. As I split my attention between a fresh-faced Miggy and a young Julio, I noticed a rare similarity: front foot variation. Some hitters are capable of altering their stride direction based on pitch location, perhaps best exemplified by a famous GIF of Cabrera hitting home runs on pitches in six very different parts of the strike zone. In that GIF you can faintly make out how Cabrera’s footwork varies on several of those swings, and though he doesn’t do it consistently yet, Julio shows glimpses of this same seemingly innate aptitude, especially his ability to open up, clear his hips, and wreck pitches on the inner half.

He can be fooled by sweeping breaking balls that make him want to open up and pull the ball, and he’ll swing at inside sliders that finish away from him, but other than those consistent issues, Rodriguez is a very mature hitter, with a mature personality and body to match. He excelled despite Seattle’s very aggressive full-season assignment, a move I was skeptical of, and had an impressive Fall League as an 18-year-old. He’s already a 40 runner (I had him timed in the 4.4s throughout Fall League), which means he is ticketed for right field rather than center, but the bat is real. I have plus hit and power projection here and I know scouts who have a 70 on the bat, though his approach and the way his head was flying out during some of his AFL at-bats stopped me from going that heavy with my hit tool grade. I think he’s going to come up quickly and be an All-Star outfielder and the affable face of the franchise.

It was an injury-laden year for Kelenic (a wrist and ankle during the summer), who was supposed to pick up Fall League reps until those was delayed by wisdom tooth extraction and then ultimately squashed by back tightness. Despite that, and especially in spite of the wrist injury, the beefcake Wisconsinite hit .291/.364/.540 with 23 dingers and 20 steals across three levels, and reached Double-A as a young 20-year-old. Kelenic is absolutely jacked but it hasn’t detracted from his twitch, nor has his size borrowed from his range in center field, which is suitable if unspectacular for the position.

The carrying tool here is the bat, which has been the case since Kelenic was 15. Like most elite prospects he’s been one of the — if not the — best hitters his age from the time scouts began to see him, and Kelenic hit elite prep pitching all throughout high school. He is short to the ball with power, and can just turn his hands over and catch heaters up, in, or both, which bodes well for him against a pitching population that is working up there with increasing frequency. The .540 SLG% from 2019 is a bit above what’s realistic going forward, largely because there’s just no more room for mass on the body. As is the case with most hitters evaluated in this stratosphere, reports of Kelenic’s competitiveness and work ethic are strong, and have been since he was in high school. In fact, one scout on the amateur side thought he was too intense at times, sort of in the Jimmy Butler realm of teammate interaction, but I haven’t heard anything like that lately. He’s much more stick than glove, but Kelenic looks like an All-Star center fielder who’s rapidly approaching Seattle.

Last year I wrote about the possibility that Gilbert would experience a velo rebound in pro ball because I thought he had been overtaxed at Stetson. He was sitting 92-96 as a rising sophomore on the Cape, but often sat 90-94, and sometimes 88-91, throughout his starts the following spring. Last year he was again up to 96 but sat 91-94, about the halfway mark between his peak and nadir as an amateur. Considering how readily pitchers lose velo in pro ball, that’s still a win for Seattle. While all of Gilbert’s secondary pitches are average and flash above, I think his command will enable them to play above their raw grades, which, combined with what the innings count could be because of his frame and how efficiently he works, will still make him an above-average WAR generating starter.

White’s pre-draft skillset was tough for some teams to wrangle. All of the window dressing — plus-plus first base defense, plus speed, a backwards hit/throw profile — was nice but ultimately, some teams saw a first baseman without sufficient power. After they drafted him, the Mariners made subtle changes to his lower half, drawing his front knee back toward his rear hip more than he did at Kentucky, and taking a longer stride back toward the pitcher. White is more often finishing with a flexed front leg now, which has helped him go down and lift balls in the bottom part of the strike zone by adjusting his lower half instead of his hands. The power output improved and is supported by the measurable underlying data. Now that he’s signed a pre-debut deal, it’s very likely that White breaks camp with the big club, and he projects as a solid everyday first baseman.

If you tally up Kirby’s three years at Elon, his summer on the Cape, and his brief pro debut, he has a 307-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 276 innings since 2017. That’s a 4% walk rate, and in Kirby’s most recent calendar year of innings, it has been a microscopic 1.3%. While his pre-draft velocity was strong (touching 97, often 93-95 early, 91-94 late in starts), his secondary stuff was very average. His slider and curveball (the latter is better) ran together a bit, and his changeup had inconsistent finish. But often, elite command of what is a 55-grade pitch in a vacuum leads to elite results (see: Bieber, Shane), and I think that sort of secondary pitch effectiveness is possible for Kirby.

One of Seattle’s stated post-draft goals for the right-hander was to make him stronger. In 2020 spring bullpens, Kirby looked noticeably thicker and stronger, and he is indeed throwing harder, touching 99 mph several times in Peoria side sessions. Logan Gilbert threw very hard in a similar setting the year before, and though his in-season velo band was beneath his pre-season bullpens, he was still above the prior year’s range. The difference is the obvious change in Kirby’s body. I expect something similar to Gilbert’s trajectory here (and for Juan Then, who appears later on this list and was also throwing much harder in the spring before baseball shut down). Even with fairly vanilla secondary stuff, mid-90s heat and Kirby’s potential for elite command gives him a mid-rotation ceiling.

When it comes to both the broad, back-of-the-house view of his amateur profile and his promotion/big league time horizon, Marte’s career has mimicked Julio Rodriguez’s so far. He was a bigger, more physical signee than is typical for the international market, the sort most teams would not hesitate to debut in domestic rookie ball. And like Rodriguez, the Mariners allowed Marte to spend his first pro summer dominating competition that simply didn’t challenge him (the average DSL fastball velo last year was 88 mph), which led to a .309/.371/.511 line. Marte had a chance to earn an aggressive assignment with a great 2020 spring (probably not Low-A, but perhaps a summer Northwest League placement), putting him on a relative fast track for a teenage hitter, though like the rest of baseball, that possibility in now on hold.

From an individual tools and skills perspective, Marte’s peers are elite high school players. As an amateur, there was uncertainty surrounding his hands, actions, and general ability to stay on the infield, but pro looks have been more favorable, backed by enough arm strength to hide potential future range deficiencies. My previous research into shortstop size has shown that most teenage prospects gain about 30 pounds between when they’re 18 and 21 years old, which puts Marte’s baseline body projection in the Willy Adames/Trevor Story realm, or about 210 pounds. So long as his hands have indeed improved, that’s a pretty favorable comp for his body/range-based fit at short. It means there’s Goldilocks Zone power/defensive spectrum potential here, as Marte already has 50-grade raw power at age 18 and will probably have at least a full grade more at maturity. His TrackMan power metrics (they’re over on The Board) are in the 40/45 range right now because Marte’s swing elements are not always well-timed. They are, however, very athletic. The big leg kick (which Marte is balanced enough to utilize), the little bit of bat wrap to create some loop and lift, and the ability to move the barrel around the zone are all encouraging swing elements, but we really don’t know a lot about Marte’s bat-to-ball skills right now because he just hasn’t faced good pitching yet. There’s clearly huge ceiling here and I have Marte in the same FV tier Zac Veen, my highest-ranked prep amateur right now.

The roller coaster prospectdom of Justus Sheffield may finally be reaching its terminus. Several repertoire changes, two trades (and the scrutiny that comes with that), fluctuations in his walk rate, some injuries (most notably shoulder stiffness in 2018), and mixed performance at the upper levels have caused a constant need for re-evaluation. The latest of these many developments is a logical shift, given Sheffield’s sinker-friendly arm slot, to a two-seam look on the fastball. Sheffield’s 2020 spring velo was parked in the 89-93 range, but now his fastball has more tailing/sinking action, which dovetails very nicely with the shape of his slider. Sheffield will throw a shorter, curt slider in the zone for strikes (one scout source who saw Sheff this spring thought it might be a separate cutter) and a longer, nastier, bat-missing version that finishes out of the strike zone. This pitch is plus, and was used heavily in Sheffield’s electric spring outings, especially as a back foot out-pitch to righties.

Sheffield’s changeup is also good, but his arm side command of all his pitches is not, so whether he’ll be able to consistently set up the change with well-located fastballs is in doubt. So, too, is Sheffield’s ability to eat innings like a traditional starter because of his hot and cold strike throwing. Some teams just have him projected in the bullpen because of how erratic the strikes have been historically. He’s in the same FV tier as Red Sox righty Bryan Mata, who also has sinker-oriented stuff and significant relief risk.

“He’s still a 24-year-old who struck out 29% of the time at Double-A.” This was the general industry response to early drafts I circulated of my Top 100, which had Lewis toward the back of the 50 FV tier where players like Jose Siri and Monte Harrison have been when they’ve made the list. Lewis and his knee (he tore his ACL in 2016) finally looked healthy last year (his swing had more movement, a bigger leg kick, and he seemed to be twisting and bending it with more comfort), and his underlying power data, which I’ll get to shortly, is spectacular. But in some ways what Lewis’ health helped reinforce was skepticism regarding his hit tool. There are folks in baseball who think that on a binary level, Lewis will not hit enough to have a meaningful career. I think he’ll be a high-variance big leaguer, grinding through some frustrating, 1-WAR seasons while he clubs 30-plus bombs in others, similar to Jorge Soler, Domingo Santana, and countless other tantalizing toolsheds who strike out a lot.

As for that underlying power data I promised you, Lewis’ is very encouraging. If you’ve been reading this year’s lists, you know the Southern League offensive environment was very unkind to hitters last season. A source not with Seattle told me that based on his TrackMan/Statcast data, Lewis’ Expected SLG%, was about .100 higher than his actual output, with an xSLG up around .500. He averaged 92 mph off the bat last year and hit 53% of balls in play at 95 mph or above (a 70 on the scale); another source whose team tracked Hard Outs among 2019 minor leaguers (balls in play at 95 mph or up that resulted in outs) told me Lewis made more than 40 of them last year, which was in the top 10 in all the minors. On balance, I think Lewis is a 45, a 1.5 WAR player on average during his years of team control. But he has plus-plus, impact power and could get hot and make some All-Star teams during that span, while other years will be quite lean.

Teams that had been tracking Raleigh’s framing ability since college have been optimistic about him profiling at catcher for longer than most individual scouts, who see a bigger-bodied guy with mobility issues. Last year, as many orgs have done, Mariners catchers began working on one knee, a move that tends to be favorable for framing but not for throwing, a skill of dwindling importance (for now). Perhaps not coincidentally (or perhaps because we were wrong about Raleigh’s arm grade last year, when we 55’ed it), reports on Raleigh’s arm strength are worse than they were a year ago, though it appears he’s a viable, long-term catcher, if an unspectacular one. If that’s true, then Raleigh has a great chance to be an average everyday backstop thanks to his power and a sentient approach that enables him to hit for it in games and reach base at an above-average clip.

Scouts and execs see Dunn settling into one of two outcomes: either he ends up living in the mid-90s as a power reliever, or he sits, as he did in 2019, in the low-90s as an innings-eating No. 4/5 starter. Brendan Gawlowski’s spring look at Dunn, during which the right-hander sat 92-94 over three innings, is perhaps indicative of the former since Dunn rarely worked with his changeup at a time when most starters are working heavily with their tertiary pitch in preparation for the season. Still, I remain somewhat bullish on Dunn’s changeup development. He’s had stretches in the past where it’s been a plus pitch and it’s arguably the best long-term fit with his fastball’s tailing/sinking shape. What I’m less optimistic about is Dunn’s starter stamina. He looked gassed late last year and while into the mid-90s early, was not throwing as hard in subsequent innings this spring. Ideally his fastball lives in at least the 93-96 mph range out of the bullpen and Dunn can be a dynamic, three-pitch reliever. I have his future fastball grade projected as if that’s the outcome.

Delaplane has power, vertical action stuff that I think is going to play in a high-leverage relief role. He creates a nearly perfect vertical arm slot by striding wide open, starting on the third base side of the rubber but landing in the middle of the mound. It helps give his fastball plus-plus carry and ride. Delaplane also has a power, Brad Lidge-style slider with late, downward movement. He has less raw arm strength than the Nick Andersons of the world, but the stuff works in the same way, and I think Delaplane will be a reliever of rare quality.

It’s not as if Williamson didn’t show plus stuff at TCU; he would be parked at 92-93 in the first inning or two, and flash two plus breaking balls. He did, however, struggle to hold it deep into starts. By the fourth, he was often living in the 88-91 range. After the draft, in one- and two-inning outings, he sat 92-95 with a plus curveball (and fewer, if any, sliders). I’m skeptical that Williamson can hold 92-95 as a starter for a whole season because of how his stuff has waned in the past. He also suffered a severe hip injury while in junior college (he tore both labrums dunking a basketball and needed surgery) that might impact his ability to do it. I buy that the velo will be there in short stints and that both breaking balls, assuming the slider returns, will be plus. As such, I have Williamson projected as a three-pitch power reliever.

Then (pronounced “Ten”) was originally signed by Seattle, then was sent to New York when the Mariners were swapping low-level prospects for 40-man depth at the end of their last competitive window, before he returned in the Edwin Encarnación deal.

He had a velocity spike over the offseason and, after sitting 91-95 and topping at 96 last year, was up to 99 mph in the bullpen this spring before baseball ceased operations due to the pandemic. Similar to the way Vanderbilt and Kyle Wright found an extra gear for his fastball before the draft, a lower, more naturally comfortable arm slot for Then is part of what seems to have brought this about. Last year, his well-located sliders were plus and the rest of his repertoire below, but he’s lanky and loose, and quite smooth, so that stuff has been at least somewhat projectable. How the lower slot impacts the secondaries and command we won’t know until after Then has taken the new delivery for a spin, but even if things go awry, the velo bump everyone’s been hoping for has seemingly arrived, so a late-inning reliever outcome is now in play.

At the very least, Mills profiles as a good, sidearm “look” reliever who can enter the middle of the game and present hitters with a visual conundrum because of his sidearm slot. His combo of repertoire depth and command are both rare for a reliever, and I think he has a chance to have some peak years like Luke Gregerson, Steve Cishek, Brad Ziegler, or other low slot relievers who closed in recent seasons have had. The statistical case for it — 30% strikeout rate, 54% groundball rate — is strong and Mills has better surface-level stuff than most sidearm relievers do.

Fraley is officially in tweenersville. He plays a fine center field but he’s not such a black hole that it makes up for his lack of power on offense and enables him to profile. Perhaps plus corner defense with a slightly better hit tool than I’ve projected means Fraley can be a platoon 45 FV, but I think enough puzzle pieces with power are floating around that he ends up a Ben Gamel style, luxury bench outfielder.

Campbell was granted a medical redshirt in 2017 because of surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. His stuff was not totally back in 2018 and the Angels tried to buy low on the then redshirt sophomore in the 28th round. He returned to school, his stuff bounced back, and Campbell went in the 2019 second round. He was ridden pretty hard at Arkansas, and the Mariners chose not to run him out after the draft. We don’t yet know what changes might be made to his repertoire, which was full of average stuff in college. He projects as a No. 4/5 starter.

Bishop remains strangely snakebitten by injury, the latest and most bizarre of which was a 2019 lacerated spleen. He’s still a glove-first, bench outfield prospect.

Clase packs quite a punch for someone his size, and his swing is very short but also geared for some lift. He has a relatively projectionless build, but part of that is because he’s added a bunch of muscle since signing and is now built like a little tank. His speed gives him a shot to be a special center field defender, while the contact feel and seemingly mature idea of the strike zone might weaponize the speed on the bases. There’s a right tail, everyday center field outcome in here.

This is another of several older relief prospects in the system, one whose report you’re probably familiar with by now. Bautista was part of Seattle’s return in the Díaz/Canó trade; the Mets acquired him from Boston for Addison Reed at the 2017 trade deadline. He’s an arm strength-dependent reliever (96-99 mph) who’ll likely lose list eligibility as soon as we have baseball again. He’s erratic, but as long as he has crude control he’ll bully hitters with his fastball and 84-87 mph slider in a middle relief role.

Other than the odd, chicken wing arm action Gerber uses to unfurl his stuff, he has a pretty standard mid-90s heat/power slider relief profile. The fastball gets on hitters more quickly than they expect, and it comes in at a flat angle that hitters also seem to struggle with. He might be up in September.

A converted outfielder, Alvarado was up to 100 during extended and sat in the mid-90s with bat-missing movement throughout the rest of the summer. He’ll flash an occasionally nasty slider but it’s not consistent right now, nor is his strike-throwing, but of course he hasn’t been pitching for all that long. He’s a 2020 40-man add and will have to develop pretty quickly to merit a 40-man spot this winter, but Seattle has had success developing pitching lately and this guy has big ceiling if things click. Based on his build and athleticism, they might.

Bins has plus bat speed and a great build for a catcher. His swing is grooved and he needs defensive polish, but he at least has power/arm carrying tools and a good chance to be a whiff-prone backup.

Like Gerber, Newsome has a short, weird arm action that seems to bug hitters and create abnormally strong results on a fastball that is, in most respects, barely average. He does have a plus changeup and throws an obnoxious rate of strikes. To this point, Newsome’s smoke and mirrors have worked as a starter up through Hi-A. The velo bump he worked for two offseasons ago has made a difference, and he projects as a swingman type now.

The Mariners pushed De Los Santos to full-season ball last year because his secondary stuff desparately needed reps and they trusted him to scrap through starts early on even though it wasn’t ready. He succeeded and now looks like a fastball/cutter/slider relief prospect.

Sweet was a 2018 undrafted free agent senior sign who had a 2019 breakout. He began the year in the Low-A bullpen (50 K, 9 BB in 35 innings), then in June was moved to the rotation and thrived for 12 starts. He made a few late-August starts at Hi-A, and was good there, too. Sweet has fastball command, fastball ride, and a plus changeup. He’s a little light on velocity, only sitting 90-93, but he’s garnered swings and misses at that velocity at the top of the strike zone so far. His changeup has bat-eluding sink and fade, and is used against righty hitters. The breaking ball is just okay, but he can land it for strikes to start counts.

It’s a 40-man look, to be sure. Perhaps the velo would tick up in the bullpen in an interesting way (all our Sweet info comes from folks who’ve seen him start), but for now he projects in the fifth or sixth starter area.

Ramirez’s career got off to a late start (he didn’t begin playing pro ball until he was 21) and he was also a little slow to develop, languishing in A-ball for several years. His stuff really started to pop in 2018, and last season he showed bat-missing, multi-inning stuff — 92-97, up to 99, two plus breaking balls. He walked 74 hitters in just over 100 innings last year, which needs to be better if he’s going to stick.