Entering Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays had stolen 35 bases in their previous 15 games. Even in this new age of increased stolen base rates, that’s impressive. Only one other team has swiped at least 35 bags over 15 games since the implementation of the new rules: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2023. Before that, only one other team had accomplished the feat in the 21st century: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2009. The last time a team other than the Rays stole so many bases in so few games was before the Rays franchise even existed; in 1992, the Milwaukee Brewers enjoyed two distinct 15-game stretches with at least 35 stolen bags.

Perhaps 35 and 15 aren’t round enough numbers for you. In that case, you’ll be happy to hear that the 2024 Rays are the very first team in the pitch clock/disengagement limit/bigger bases era to steal 50 bases in any 25-game span; they pulled it off between July 21 and August 18 (and again from July 22 to August 19, and July 23 to August 20). The last team to achieve this particular feat was — you guessed it — the 2009 Rays, and before them, the 1992 Brewers. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re speaking with someone from Toronto who doesn’t follow baseball, they can probably tell you two things about the Blue Jays. The first is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the best player on the team. The second is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sucks.

The first point is pretty accurate, and it’s absolutely true this season — more on that in a moment. The second point is categorically false, but alas, such is the curse of superstardom. The player who has his face on posters all around the city is going to get plenty of credit when things go right, but he’s also going to shoulder an excessive amount of criticism when things go wrong. When you’re the guy starring in the Uncrustables ads, fans expect a crust-free performance on the field, too.

Guerrero made a name for himself in 2021, which was no easy task considering the man with whom he shares his name. Yet, with 48 home runs, 111 RBI, and a runner-up finish for AL MVP, Guerrero gave the average Torontonian a reason to talk about baseball for the first time since José Bautista was punched in the face. Then, Guerrero spent the next two years corroding his golden reputation. To be clear, no one who knows what they’re talking about ever thought he was a bad ballplayer — heck, he set a new record for the highest salary ever awarded in an arbitration hearing this past offseason — but his performance certainly went downhill. If all you were comparing him to was the best version of himself (like that motivational poster in your gym always tells you to do), he really was pretty disappointing last year: Read the rest of this entry »

I typed the command “high-leverage reliever fangraphs.com” into Google over the weekend and set the search range to the past month. About 130 results came up. Next, I ran the same search, except with “low-leverage reliever” instead. This time, Google told me there weren’t “many great matches” for my search and suggested I try “using words that might appear” on the page I was looking for. Message received, Google. Apparently, our coverage here at FanGraphs is biased toward players who actually hold meaningful influence over the outcomes of games. That just won’t do!

All joking aside, there’s a very simple reason we don’t write about low-leverage relievers that often. Low-leverage relievers don’t really exist, at least not in the same way high-leverage relievers do. For one thing, relievers are naturally going to enter games in higher-leverage spots because pitchers are more likely to exit games in higher-leverage spots. The average leverage index when entering games (gmLI) for relievers this season is 1.12; that’s 0.12 higher than a perfectly average-leverage spot. Moreover, the low-leverage relief opportunities do exist are more likely to go to the revolving door of replacement-level arms at the bottom of each team’s bullpen depth chart, rather than an established pitcher whose full-time job is that of a low-leverage reliever. Consider that the median gmLI for active, qualified relievers this season is 1.21. By design, most relievers who stick around long enough for you to know their names are going to be pitching in higher-leverage spots. Yet, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any full-time low-leverage relievers. If anything, it just means those guys are more unusual – and therefore pretty interesting.

With all that in mind, I set out to find a low-leverage arm worth writing about. The qualified reliever (0.3 IP per team game) with the lowest gmLI this season is Thyago Vieira, with a 0.29 gmLI. That would be the lowest gmLI in a season for a qualified reliever since rookie Johan Santana’s record-setting 0.27 gmLI in 2000. Yet, with all due respect to Vieira, he’s hardly the most fun part of that fun fact. (Although, if Vieira goes on to win two Cy Young awards and a Triple Crown I will gladly eat my words.) The 31-year-old Vieira perfectly fits the mold of the replacement-level/revolving-door reliever I described above. He has played for the Brewers, Orioles, and Diamondbacks this season, and he’s currently on the restricted list at Triple-A in the D-backs organization. It seems highly unlikely he’ll get back to majors and pitch the necessary 10.2 innings he would need to remain qualified at season’s end. And, unfortunately, his 0.29 gmLI isn’t nearly as noteworthy without the “qualified” qualifier. If I lower the threshold to 30 innings pitched, 25 other relievers have had a lower-leverage season on record (since 1974).

Funnily enough, however, it was when I looked just beyond the qualified names that I struck gold iron (help me out here metal enthusiasts, is that the right metaphor?) in my search for low-leverage relievers. Tanner Rainey of the Nationals is in the midst of what could be the lowest-leverage relief season of all time: Read the rest of this entry »

As I sit down to write today, the Mets rank fourth in the majors with a 113 wRC+ and sixth with 19.7 position player WAR. They’re outperforming their star-studded division rivals in Philadelphia and Atlanta in both metrics. If you had told me on Opening Day that the Mets would have a higher wRC+ than the Braves after the trade deadline, I’d have scoffed at your ignorance. If you had told me at the end of May that the Mets’ lineup would surpass that of the Phillies in WAR within eight weeks, I’d have laughed in your face. After all, the Mets ranked 13th in wRC+ (99) and 16th in position player WAR (6.2) two months into the season. At that time, they had a 24-33 record to show for their efforts, and they were trending toward a second straight midsummer sell-off.

Yet, since the first of June, the Mets rank first in the majors with a 130 wRC+ and second with 13.6 position player WAR. They have gone 33-18 in that span, the best record in baseball. Not only did David Stearns hold onto potential trade chips Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Luis Severino at the deadline, but he made several additions, bringing Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Phil Maton, Huascar Brazoban, and Ryne Stanek into the fold. According to ZiPS, the Mets increased their playoff odds by 8.2% at the deadline. And according to our Playoff Odds page, the Mets increased their postseason chances by 36.0% between May 31 and today. They are one of only two teams whose odds have risen from below 10% to above 50% at any point this season. The other is the Royals, who were at 9.9% for about 24 hours at the end of March: Read the rest of this entry »

Pitching wins championships. It’s a cliché, but it’s a cliché for a reason: It’s true, and everyone knows it. It’s why the best available pitchers can cost such a premium at the trade deadline. So, what if there were a way for a team to improve its pitching staff without trading for a pitcher? It’s easier said than done, but the Red Sox and Rangers are hoping they pulled it off after acquiring new catchers to help them over the final two months of the season.

On Saturday evening, the Blue Jays sent long-time backstop Danny Jansen to the Red Sox in exchange for infield prospects Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino and right-handed pitching prospect Gilberto Batista. A little over 24 hours later, the Tigers shipped off Carson Kelly to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers: catcher/first baseman Liam Hicks and right-hander Tyler Owens. Read the rest of this entry »

He may not be playing in Arlington tonight, but Christian Walker just wrapped up an All-Star level first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman came into the All-Star break ranked third in the National League with 22 home runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the top 15 qualified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most among NL fielders, while his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and 8 FRV are all the top marks at his position. Thanks to his spectacular defensive performance, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the only qualified NL first baseman who has provided positive defensive value at first despite the hefty positional adjustment. On top of that, he has played in all 97 of Arizona’s games so far, putting him on pace for more than 700 plate appearances this season.

Add his offense, defense, and durability together and you get 2.9 WAR, which places Walker in the top 15 among NL position players and top 30 in the majors. Considering that 46 position players were invited to the Midsummer Classic this year, it’s hard to deny that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. At the same time, it’s also hard to get too fired to up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully earning the two guaranteed spots for first basemen on the NL roster. In addition, three NL players with more WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star cases than Walker were also left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames. Finally, this isn’t even the most disappointing time Walker has missed out on a trip back to Globe Life Field within the past 10 months. Still, it’s a shame that Walker’s excellent first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years old, the late bloomer is putting together the best season of his career at the plate and in the field. Surely, that deserves to be celebrated. Read the rest of this entry »

Last summer, I wrote about how Aaron Civale “King Ralph-ed” his way into an exciting postseason race. The Rays entered the 2023 season with five playoff-caliber starting pitchers at the top of their depth chart and a star pitching prospect waiting in the wings. Yet after several major elbow injuries, they were forced to send a Top 100 prospect to Cleveland in exchange for Civale at the deadline. By August, the right-hander was Tampa Bay’s no. 3 starter. The beneficiary of so many others’ misfortunes, Civale went from a scuffling Guardians club to one of the best teams in the league.

Conversely, Civale probably would have preferred to be back in Cleveland this season. As of today, it’s the Guardians, not the Rays, who are competing with the Orioles for the best record in the American League. Meanwhile, it’s the Rays, not the Guardians, who are struggling to stay above .500 with the trade deadline fast approaching. Thus, I have no choice but to go back to the King Ralph parallel. At the end of the movie, Ralph decides he’d rather return to his old life and abdicates the throne. However, when Ralph abdicates, his aging and childless successor, Sir Cedric, warns him that he might have to be king again once Cedric dies, leaving open the possibility for a sequel. King Ralph never got a second chapter, but as luck would have it, Civale just King Ralph-ed all over again. The rules of the CBA prevent him from simply packing up and heading back to Cleveland, but he’s just taken his place in a new Midwestern court. Read the rest of this entry »

Today is an important day on the baseball calendar, although you might not see or hear that mentioned anywhere else. At some point this evening, likely around 10:30 PM Eastern, the seventh game of the night will wrap up and the 2024 major league season will cross over into its second half, technically speaking. Half of the 2,430 games on the regular season schedule will have a winner and a loser, and the majority of the league’s 30 teams will have played at least 81 games. To me, it’s the perfect time to check in on the various postseason races around the league. Teams have had plenty of time to prove who they are, but there is just as much time remaining for those narratives to change completely. Let’s dive in.

To give you a quick sense of how things have changed since Opening Day, here is a side-by-side comparison of the potential playoff field as determined by our preseason projections, the most popular picks from our preseason staff predictions, and what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today:

The current projected standings look quite similar to that final column, with two exceptions: the Astros are projected to beat out the Red Sox for the final American League Wild Card spot, and the Padres and Cardinals are projected to swap places in the second and third National League Wild Card positions. Read the rest of this entry »

Athletes like Elly De La Cruz can skew our perception of reality. His powerful arm makes most shortstops look like they throw with a wet noodle. His 99th-percentile sprint speed makes most other baserunners look like they’re running on sand. His tall frame, which our website somehow lists at 6-foot-2, makes that guy on Hinge who claims he’s 6-foot-2 look like he’s actually 5-foot-8. Oh, and his 13 steals of third base this year might make you think steals of third are at an all-time high, which couldn’t be further from the truth.

As a fan of highly specific baseball stats – a bold statement to make on this website, I know – I like to check in on the stolen base rates at each bag. Practically speaking, that means I pay particularly close attention to steals of third, the oft-forgotten middle child of stolen bases. Steals of third are too common to receive the same amount of attention as steals of home; at the same time, they’re infrequent enough that they’ll always be overshadowed by the sheer number of second-base steals. Steals of home are almost guaranteed to make tomorrow morning’s highlight reel. Steals of second outnumber all others and thus dictate league-wide stolen base trends every year. Steals of third are stuck in the middle, and that’s especially true this season as their siblings are taking even more of the glory than usual.

The stolen base success rate at home (16-for-29, 55.2%) is the highest it’s been since at least 1969. Indeed, it’s above 50% for only the second time in that span. In addition, runners are on pace to steal home 36 times this year, which would rank second in the divisional era and well within shouting distance of first (38 SBH in 1998). Meanwhile, the overall stolen base rate (i.e. steals per game) is also on the rise, primarily driven by an increase in steals of second. The league is on pace to steal second base 166 more times in 2024 than it did last year, a 5.6% increase, as runners continue to test the limits of the New Rules™. Read the rest of this entry »

There is no doubt the Milwaukee Brewers have outperformed expectations in 2024. Although they won the NL Central just last season and made the playoffs in five of the last six years, they were hardly postseason favorites on Opening Day. On the contrary, they were the only 2023 division winners that the majority of our staff did not pick to repeat as division champs; just four of the 25 participants in our preseason predictions exercise picked the Brewers to make the playoffs in any capacity. The only NL Central team with less support was the Pirates. Meanwhile, our playoff odds were only slightly more optimistic about Milwaukee’s chances. The Brewers had 18.1% odds to win their division and a 30.0% chance to make the postseason on Opening Day.

Sixty-seven games have passed between now and then, and over those 67 games, the Brewers have become the indisputable frontrunners in the NL Central. What once seemed like it would be the most closely contested division in the league – all five teams were projected to finish within 2.3 games of one another on April 14 – has become Milwaukee’s to lose. The Pirates, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds are all smushed within half a game of one another, but the Brewers rest atop with a comfortable 6.5-game lead. Their divisional odds are up to 63.0%; their playoff odds, 78.6%. In the NL, only the three powerhouse clubs, the Phillies, Dodgers, and Braves, are more likely to play in October. Read the rest of this entry »