Author Archive

The Ancient of Jays: Scherzer Returns to Toronto

Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

You can never have enough starting pitching. Certainly the Toronto Blue Jays can’t. They’ve signed right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer to an incentive-heavy one-year contract with a $3 million base salary.

This is technically his third go-around in Canada; he made 20 starts for the Jays last year (17 in the regular season and three more in the playoffs) before hitting free agency. Scherzer, who is 291 years old, also served as a hussar in the army of the Marquis de Montcalm during the Seven Years’ War. Read the rest of this entry »


Jake McCarthy Needs to Lose His Power Stroke

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When the Colorado Rockies buy low on a former first-round prospect coming off an abysmal season, the null hypothesis is that the player in question is cooked. The Rockies’ front office might not be the laughingstock it was before the hiring of Paul DePodesta… but it could still be, and even if things are going to change for the better there, it’s going to take a minute to find out for sure.

If the Diamondbacks let Jake McCarthy loose in a my-garbage-for-your-trash trade, the smart money is on Colorado not rediscovering the magic that made McCarthy an enticing prospect a few years ago.

But what if the smart money is wrong? Read the rest of this entry »


A Brief List of Pitchers I Believe Could Knock an Apple off My Head Without Maiming Me

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

As baseball, like a bear, emerges from hibernation, the Milwaukee Brewers graced us with a delightful little token:

That’s Brewers right-hander Jacob Misiorowski knocking an apple off a teammate’s head from 60 feet, six inches away. Read the rest of this entry »


No Room at the Infield: Jordan Lawlar Moves To Center Field

Rob Schumacher/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Time waits for no man, except Jordan Lawlar, who’s been on the cusp of major league stardom for about four years.

The skinny on Lawlar as a prospect — where he topped out at a 60-FV grade in 2024 and 2025 — is that he carries the potential for plus power and plus shortstop defense with a plus-plus run tool. That’s a lot of pluses for an up-the-middle position, which is why the Diamondbacks spent a top-10 pick on him out of high school in 2021.

He played well enough to make Arizona’s playoff roster on the run to the 2023 NL pennant (though he didn’t play much, going 0-for-2 with a walk), and the two full seasons since have seen Lawlar’s path blocked both by his own injuries and the emergence of Geraldo Perdomo as a bona fide star. Read the rest of this entry »


Can Justin Crawford Get off the Ground, and Stay off the Ground?

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

I’m of the opinion that you usually don’t learn much from watching spring training. It’s glorified practice, with inconsistent quality of competition even before you consider the fact that some guys are going all-out while others are working on a specific issue rather than trying to win the game. This is especially true for position players who came into camp with at least an inside track on a starting job. It’s why I pay more attention to college baseball during February and March. Hell, the new season of Love Is Blind is out and I need to catch up so I can see if there are any ex-college ballplayers in the cast.

One exception to the rule that you don’t learn much from spring training: Justin Crawford. Read the rest of this entry »


Pablo López Probably Needs a New Elbow

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

We know the steps to the annual spring dance by now: Pitcher appears for spring training, pitcher suffers minor injury or discomfort during practice, America holds its collective breath and hopes that barking elbow will just resolve itself.

Unfortunately, that hope is all too rarely vindicated, as imaging quickly confirms said pitcher has torn an essential bit of connective tissue.

The Twins speed-ran this dance this week with their no. 1 starter, Pablo López. The veteran right-hander cut short a bullpen session on Monday after feeling soreness in his elbow. Minnesota GM Jeremy Zoll announced Tuesday that López had torn an elbow ligament and that season-ending surgery was “very much on the table.” Read the rest of this entry »


Help Wanted: Union Leader Untainted by Scandal

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On Tuesday morning, it was reported by The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough that Tony Clark was resigning as executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, a post he’d held since 2013. The news came the very morning MLBPA leadership was due to start its annual whistle-stop tour through all 30 major league spring training clubhouses. The MLBPA is also preparing for negotiations on a new CBA; all indications are that we’re a little over nine months from a lockout of some length.

While the timing of the announcement was bad, Clark’s ouster was not itself unforeseen. For about a year, federal agents have been investigating both the MLBPA and the NFLPA over financial dealings related to the group licensing firm OneTeam Partners. Clark was also the subject of a November 2024 whistleblower complaint alleging self-dealing and abuse of power regarding the MLBPA-owned youth baseball company Players Way. Surely Clark’s resignation came in advance of another shoe dropping in one or both of those cases.

No, it turns out. On Tuesday afternoon, Jeff Passan and Don Van Natta Jr. of ESPN reported that Clark had resigned in disgrace for a hitherto undiscovered reason: An internal investigation had revealed that he had an “inappropriate relationship” with his sister-in-law, who had been hired to work at the MLBPA in 2023.

That’s a new one. Read the rest of this entry »


A.J. Preller Builds Time Machine or Finds No. 4 Starter

Gregory Fisher, Kelley L Cox, Kyle Ross, Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

I try to be humble and open-minded as an analyst; there’s so much we don’t or can’t know at the time a player signs with a team. And the future? She is as capricious as she is mean-spirited. Nothing is guaranteed.

So I look at the Padres’ busy Presidents’ Day weekend — in which they signed Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, and Ty France — and think to myself: I don’t know for a fact that A.J. Preller doesn’t have a bunch of European polymaths in the basement of Petco Park developing a time machine. That might sound farfetched, but “stick a bunch of smart guys under a stadium and see what happens” is literally how we got the world’s first working nuclear reactor. If Preller turns out to be the General Leslie Groves of time travel, he’ll have earned his contract extension and then some.

If Preller can retrieve previous versions of these players from the ethers of subspace, we’ll look back on this weekend (or forward, considering we have the ability to move through time in this hypothetical) as a definitive one in the 2026 NL West race.

Assuming no paradigm-shifting technology is to come, this seems OK. Read the rest of this entry »


The Ridiculous Firewagon Offenses of College Baseball

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The pros are still moseying on down to Florida and Arizona for training camp, but the college baseball regular season starts today. I’ve long been an evangelist for the college game, and it’s hard to overstate how much more accessible it has become just in the past 15 to 20 years. Basically every power conference game gets aired either on cable or streamed on ESPN+ or a similarly accessible provider. I remember having to calculate OPS by hand from the press box in the mid-teens; now FanGraphs has wRC+ for every Division I player, while D1Baseball puts out batted ball stats.

And the quality of play is better now than it’s ever been. That’s true in most sports; societal standards of nutrition and fitness only tend to go up over time, as does the human understanding of science. And the past decade has seen not one revolution in college baseball but several. Professional-quality, data-driven coaching techniques have hit the amateur game. The truncation of the draft to 20 rounds and the imposition of bonus caps have led more elite prospects to college baseball, and the loosening of transfer policy has led more players to find programs where they can flourish.

In every way that matters, Division I baseball is more like the professional game than it’s ever been. So the statistical environments of the two forms of baseball should be pretty similar, right? Read the rest of this entry »


The Seven College Baseball Teams You Need To Know in 2026

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If you’re not already into college baseball, I’ll give you the briefest possible form of my annual elevator pitch. It comes in three parts. First: The regional round of the NCAA Tournament isn’t for another four months, but it’s one of the best weekends of TV in all of sports. That’s true even if you drop in cold, but it’s better if you know some of the characters involved. The time to start one’s homework is now.

Second: If you watch college baseball, you can have opinions about the draft that’ll make you look smart in front of your friends. If you’re wrong, no one will remember who you were even talking about, but if you’re right, you can dine out on that prediction forever.

Third: What are you going to do, watch spring training? Davy Andrews wrote last week about a blurry photo of a white guy with a goatee in a blue uniform. He says that was Nolan McLean, but for all I know, it was Civil War General Daniel Sickles. You can watch meaningful regular season baseball tomorrow, or you can delude yourself into thinking there’s anything to be learned from watching Carlos Correa get walked by a minor league pitcher with a uniform number in the 80s.

An actual exhaustive college baseball preview takes months of research and dozens of articles, even for specialist publications that can devote a full staff to the undertaking. Me? I’m one guy with about 3,000 words to play with, so I’m giving you a brief rundown of seven teams I’m interested in. These seven teams include national championship contenders — specifically the two heavy preseason College World Series favorites — but this is not a ranking. I tried to pick good, talented teams from a few conferences that could end up having interesting seasons. Make of it what you will. Read the rest of this entry »