As FanGraphs’ payroll and baseball economics czar, I expend a frightening amount of my brainpower thinking about team spending. I’m constantly trying to figure out how much money teams have spent and how much they will spend in the future. Since that stuff is always floating around in my head anyway, I thought it’d be a good idea to do something with all that information. Today, we’ll cover the payrolls for all 30 teams in 2025 and over the next three years.

Let’s start with the payrolls for this season, both real-dollar and luxury tax (CBT) amounts. There are a lot of small nuances that determine how the two numbers are calculated and why they are different, so I won’t get into the nitty gritty here. However, I am going to briefly point out some of the key discrepancies that you should know before we get to the data.

The real-dollar payroll uses the actual money paid out for each year of the contract, plus the prorated portion of the contract’s signing bonus, if it has one. On the RosterResource payroll pages, this is the number shown in the player’s column for each year.

Please note that for contracts with significant deferrals, the league’s Labor Relations Department (LRD) will recalculate their value to a significantly lower number than what is displayed on the RosterResource pages to account for the discounted rate. For each year, we show the money that ultimately will be paid out to each player. So, for example, RosterResource lists Shohei Ohtani’s real-dollar payroll value for 2025 as $70 million, even though his 10-year, $700 million contract is heavily deferred.

The CBT payrolls shown on RosterResource, and in the AAV column for each player, do accurately reflect how the league discounts contracts. I wrote more about Ohtani’s deal in particular here. Ken Rosenthal wrote more about the nuances of Ohtani’s contract’s three values ($700 million, about $460 million, and about $280 million) here; RosterResource only accounts for the first two values, while the league’s LRD calculation reflects the third.

CBT payrolls include ancillary expenses that the real-dollar payrolls don’t, including player benefits (estimated at $17.5 million this year), payment into the $50 million pre-arbitration bonus pool ($1,666,667 per team), and minor league salaries for 40-man roster players (estimated at $2.5 million per team).

Ultimately, CBT payrolls will correlate strongly to real-money payrolls, since many contracts are evenly distributed anyway, so they’ll count the same for each season by both calculations.

OK, now that we’ve got that out of the way, here are the top-line payroll numbers for the 2025 season:

The Dodgers may well end up as the first team in major league history to have a $400 million payroll; Clayton Kershaw should earn at least some of the $8.5 million available to him in incentives. On top of that, even though Los Angeles sure looks like a juggernaut right now, we should still expect president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to make additions at the deadline that could increase payroll even more.

Flipping the chart on its head shows a couple of unsurprising bottom-dwellers in the A’s and Marlins. The A’s are successfully over the $105 million CBT threshold needed to avoid having the burden of proof placed upon them if the Players’ Association were to file a grievance against them related to how they allocate the revenue sharing dollars they receive. (Their real-dollar payroll is significantly lower because the contracts signed to get over that threshold are all backloaded.)

The Marlins, on the other hand, are evidently rolling the dice on being able to weather a potential grievance, with The Miami Herald reporting that the club does “not believe [it is] at serious risk of losing a grievance in part because of the wording of the collective bargaining agreement.” In the event of a grievance, the Marlins would argue that they are using revenue sharing dollars “in an effort to improve performance on the field” (which is all that the CBA stipulates the money must be used for) because they’re spending on non-roster expenses like front office augmentation and player development fortifications. Helping their cause is the fact that grievances against the team from 2017 and 2018 are still pending; in the club’s eyes, this is a can that can be kicked quite far down the road.

And now, let’s take a look at how teams are distributing their budgets:

Each team exists within its own context of what it’s trying to accomplish with its payroll, and having a higher or lower percentage within a given category doesn’t inherently mean anything good or bad. But it’s especially interesting to me to look at the middle column, or the percentage of real-dollar payroll allocated to arbitration-year players.

Since most of those players are between one and three years away from reaching free agency — along with the small group of Super Two players who have four years left — sorting from highest to lowest is a great way to answer the question: “Which teams have their rent coming due the soonest?” In other words, both Beltway teams have over a quarter of their payrolls hitting free agency within the next three years; will either of them make the effort to re-sign or extend key players like Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Nathaniel Lowe, and MacKenzie Gore? Those aren’t all extremely urgent decisions, but they’re much more at the forefront than, say, what becomes of Gunnar Henderson or Dylan Crews.

Speaking of the future, here’s what teams have allocated in payroll for the next three years:

Just so we’re all clear on what we’re looking at here: Future Commitments includes only guaranteed salaries from free agent contracts and extensions; we’re not including any projected earnings for pre-arbitration or arbitration-year players. Because of how our data is displayed on the payroll pages, single-year player options (highlighted in green on the payroll pages) are not included (like Pete Alonso), but opt outs for longer deals are (like Alex Bregman) factored into these figures. Essentially, we’re summing the white text on the payroll pages and ignoring any of the color-coded cells.

Even though the mechanism is the same in that the player still controls the cards, we create this line of demarcation (one year left on the deal is a player option, anything longer is an opt out) for a couple reasons. One is that the CBA itself makes that distinction, and the other is because it more closely matches how club, mutual, and vesting options work: They’re a single year 99% of the time. Opting out is a longer-term decision that’s also generally easier to make; if you’ve got multiple years left on your deal, you’d better be darn sure you can do better in free agency if you leave.

As I said before, each team is going to operate within its own budgetary constraints. The fact that the Diamondbacks already have $110 million on the books for 2026 may well make them more inflexible than the Dodgers or Mets this coming offseason, even though the Snakes have much less in the way of commitments.

Having more tied up in the future doesn’t mean that the team has less to do compared to teams with fewer dollars on the books, either. The Mets’ $202 million includes just eight players on guaranteed deals; they don’t have a particularly impactful arbitration class, and their only significant pre-arbitration player is Mark Vientos. They’ll have more to accomplish than the Red Sox, who are at $175 million, a total that includes Bregman. Excluding Bregman, Boston has nine players locked up, plus Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran, both key cogs, in arbitration.

Ultimately, my job is to compile all of the data, not necessarily to make sweeping declarations or draw any grand conclusions about payroll. I always caution that there’s a lot of nuance and team-specific context that often gets lost in more generalized comments, and the purpose of this summary isn’t to tell anyone how to think or feel about how teams are spending their money. That said, I’m looking forward to a spirited discussion in the comments section, and I’m happy to answer any team-specific questions you may have.

Baseball analysts and team managers alike love to remind players and fans that Opening Day rosters are just one of many that each team will feature over the course of the season. And while that’s certainly true, the fanfare of making an Opening Day roster is an accomplishment that doesn’t get topped until players are lucky enough to find themselves as one of the 26 names on a postseason ballclub.

While Thursday’s rosters have already proven themselves to be ephemeral (RIP to Nick Gonzales’ ankle), it’s still a good opportunity to take a look back at how the rosters were constructed. Our Active Roster Breakdown will always be up-to-the-minute with the latest moves, if you’d like to peruse that at any point as rosters evolve throughout the season.

The Guardians’ modus operandi for years has been to build homegrown winners, and it’s unsurprising to see the Cardinals right there with Cleveland in that category considering how little St. Louis did this offseason. Conversely, because Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller keeps trading away their homegrown players, there are only three of them on San Diego’s Opening Day roster.

The teams that turn to free agency most are the ones that either have struggled to produce homegrown talent in recent years or, like the Padres, have traded away the top players in their system. Either way, because they lack capable internal options, they rely on the open market to fill out their rosters.

On the flip side, both Florida teams stayed out of the free agent market almost entirely. Nearly two-thirds of the Rays’ Opening Day roster (17 of 26) were acquired via trade. Meanwhile, the Marlins have been aggressive on the waiver wire since Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations after the 2023 season, and the players they’ve claimed are not just non-roster flotsam; Derek Hill and Otto Lopez are in their starting lineup, Connor Gillispie is their no. 2 starter, and Jesus Tinoco is a key setup man.

Does it portend badly for the Dodgers that they’re the oldest team in baseball by over nine months? Well, no, they’re the Dodgers. But this list does reflect where a lot of teams are in their contention cycles. The Dodgers are in win-now mode, and while they’ll seemingly be in win-now mode in perpetuity, they’ll be doing that with older players. Even so, an aging roster doesn’t necessarily guarantee a winning one. As things stand, the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-oldest roster in the majors, appear to be nearing the end of their contention window. And that window could slam shut entirely if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who, at 26, actually brings their average age down — departs in free agency after the season.

Most of the teams on the other end of the age spectrum are either at the start of rebuilds (Marlins, White Sox) or are making progress but aren’t quite ready to contend yet (Nationals, A’s). Their average ages will get older as their roster gains experience and their window of contention opens. The Rays are always going to be young because they typically trade their homegrown players when they get older and more expensive.

A slightly different way to look at this is by years of MLB service, which generally correlates with age but not always. For example, the Reds are a little bit older than the league-average team, but they opened the season with 20 players who have fewer than six years of service time. That’s because Cincinnati’s roster includes late bloomers Jose Trevino, Sam Moll, and Ian Gibaut.

Sticking with their youth movement, the Marlins’ most experienced players are Sandy Alcantara and Cal Quantrill, who have a combined 12 years and 60 days of MLB service entering the year. That’s a figure topped by 19 individual players on Opening Day rosters.

Lastly, let’s look at the countries where each team’s players were born.

Specifically, I’d like to highlight the players from the least-represented countries in the majors.

Aruba: Xander Bogaerts (Padres), Chadwick Tromp (Braves)

Australia: Curtis Mead (Rays)

Bahamas: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees)

Germany: Max Kepler (Phillies)

Honduras: Mauricio Dubón (Astros)

Peru: Jesús Luzardo (Phillies)

South Africa: Rob Refsnyder (Red Sox)

Baseball truly is a global game, and I hope the game continues to grow internationally so that we can have players from more countries in the years to come.

In his piece on Tuesday, Michael Baumann described a “true sicko” of a baseball fan as one who has strong opinions on players signed to minor league contracts with spring training invites. If simply having an opinion on those players makes me a sicko, having opinions on the demarcation between those who do and don’t make Opening Day rosters means I probably need to be double vaccinated against whatever sickness that is.

Opening Day for all but two teams is less than two weeks away, so that means front offices are soon going to have to start finalizing their major league rosters. Many of the guys who don’t make the big league club will remain with their current organizations, but a good chunk of NRIs who don’t make the cut will have the chance to opt out of their minor league contracts and seek a major league deal with another team.

As stated in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, all XX(B) free agents — those with at least six years of service who ended the year on a 40-man roster — who ultimately sign minor league deals can opt out of their contracts six days before Opening Day (March 20); teams have until the March 22 to add them to the MLB roster or injured list or instead release them. Plenty of non-XX(B) NRIs also have opt-outs, though some of those may have gone unreported. Considering this, and for the sake of convenience, let’s assume that all of the NRIs mentioned in this piece are able to opt out if they do not make the major league roster out of camp.

Today, we’ll run through the NRIs who could end up in a different organization and possibly make an Opening Day roster. Because Baumann covered the NRI players who are projected to make Opening Day rosters, according to RosterResource, I’m going to do the opposite and touch on only the NRIs who, at least for now, are not projected to have a 26-man spot come the start of the season.

At least a few of these grizzled veterans would probably be upgrades over the catchers on some clubs, but even if they are, front offices will have to consider whether the new backstop’s talent outweighs the current one’s familiarity with the team’s pitchers. Catchers are almost never moved at the trade deadline because of the challenges that come with having to learn a new pitching staff on the fly, and while it’s true that the above catchers would have more time to get caught up than they would if they were joining a new team at the end of July, they’d still need to develop relationships with more than a dozen pitchers during the regular season, rather than in February bullpen sessions or exhibition games. A few of these backstops may well opt out of their current minor league contracts, but I wouldn’t expect them to sign a major league deal immediately unless an injury occurs and opens up a spot.

Teams That Could Come Calling: Rockies, Padres, Red Sox, Marlins

Most of the players in this group have had strong showings this spring; all except Chavis and Rodgers have posted a 125 or better wRC+. To what extent that matters, well, that’s up to you, but the point is that there’s at least a little bit of intrigue and plenty of experience. Rodgers was a somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Rockies this offseason, and it was even more surprisingly that had to settle for a minor league deal and an NRI, but he may yet find the MLB deal he should have earned all along despite an iffy small-sample Grapefruit League performance. Lopez and Ahmed have a long track record of fantastic glovework, too, especially useful for teams scrambling to find bench help in response to injuries or demotions.

Teams That Could Come Calling: White Sox, Angels, Yankees, Mets

There’s a range of defensive competence here — Marisnick and Almora can play a mean center field, but even in the corners you really don’t want a ball hit Rosario’s way these days — but they all have some sort of intriguing skill. Gallo, as has always been the case, has massive boom-or-bust potential; it’s been far more bust than boom lately, a trend that’s continued this spring training — he’s struck out over half the time. Thompson has probably been the MVP of the Grapefruit League with six (!) homers and has the best shot of making the roster of his current team.

Teams That Could Come Calling: White Sox, Tigers, Mariners

Managers wouldn’t want these guys playing the field much, but every member of this trio has mashed in the not-too-distant past. Despite his inconsistency, Bauers was a threat in the middle of the Brewers order at times last year. Cooper was an All-Star in 2022 and hit a career-high 17 home runs in 2023. If Jiménez is healthy — a big if but still — he boasts more upside than any other hitter in this article. Teams with open time at DH could do worse than sign one of these bats.

Teams That Could Come Calling: White Sox, Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Giants

Have a last-minute injury at any one of seven positions? Not liking how your existing options are performing on either side of the ball? One of these players might be your savior, albeit the most modest savior in human history. Hampson, Biggio, and Vargas all saw a lot of MLB action last year, and Hampson played everywhere besides catcher. (He even pitched a scoreless inning!) He and Haggerty also have plus speed and can steal a base or two off the bench if needed.

Teams That Could Come Calling: All of the clubs mentioned above, as well as some others, should be interested in the versatility that these players offer.

Teams in need of 25-plus starts should just see if they can work out a late deal with Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn. But the benefit of signing one of the above arms for a handful of starts is that they’ve been in camps, pitching in games, staying on schedule and in their routines. By contrast, Lynn and Gibson almost certainly won’t be ready to open the season in a rotation. Houser specifically strikes me as an intriguing option; his fastball velocity is up this spring compared to last year with the Mets, but the only way I can see him making the Rangers’ rotation to start the season is if one or more of their starters gets hurt. Sure, some of those pitchers are injury prone (hello, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle), but if they remain healthy through the end of camp and Houser opts out for a major league deal elsewhere, another club could scoop him up before a Texas starter goes down.

Teams That Could Come Calling: Athletics, Rockies, Red Sox, Braves, plus any team who wants a multi-inning reliever.

I saved the best for last, and not just because it’s the longest list of players by far. Look at those names! I bet you didn’t even know Neftalí Feliz was still kicking around in affiliated ball. Heck, even I didn’t know that until I saw he signed with the Mariners. Jesse Chavez is hoping for yet another one last hurrah. (Justin Verlander is the only active player older than Chavez.) Meanwhile, a lot of the arms in their early 30s or late 20s are just trying to extend their careers for as long as possible or recapture successes from earlier this decade.

Teams That Could Come Calling: Take your pick of any of the 30 clubs. Teams always need relievers!

The offseason isn’t done until the season starts, but updates to the Offseason Matrices are fewer and farther between with each successive day. There’s just not that much left to happen: A few more players should sign MLB deals, and a few dozen others who were non-roster invitees this spring will find their way onto the main page of the FA Matrix after they make Opening Day rosters. There’ll be a few waiver claims as teams finalize rosters, and maybe some trades of larger significance, but perhaps not. Largely, what you see with teams right now is what you get. So, I figured now is a great time to recap what happened and give you a ridiculous amount of data in sortable tables.

As a reminder, the offseason document currently includes only free agency and trades, meaning that all of the dollar figures in the below tables correspond to free agent spending only, not payroll added via trades or extensions. For example, the extensions that Lawrence Butler (seven years, $65.5 million) and Brent Rooker (five years, $60 million) signed with the A’s this offseason aren’t included. If you’re curious about how these deals impact their full financial picture, head on over to the RosterResource payroll pages, where you’ll find that the two extensions bring the team’s luxury tax payroll to about $115 million for 2025. As extensions are the Offseason Matrices’ one big blind spot, I plan on including those next offseason!

Before diving in, here are the notable players still on the free agent market who have at least decent odds of securing last-minute MLB contracts: Read the rest of this entry »

The heavy lifting for the offseason appears to be over, unless there’s a big trade coming down the pike. (Remember, Dylan Cease wasn’t moved from the White Sox to the Padres until March 13 last year.) But that doesn’t mean nothing has happened in the last week; there were still some stragglers on the free agent market who found teams as spring camps opened, and there’ll be more yet in the lead up to Opening Day. Let’s go over the moves, all of which are updated in the Offseason Matrices document.

Free Agent Signings

Cubs Sign Justin Turner for One Year, $6 Million

• Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

Turner’s days of getting significant action at third base are over, so I don’t think his acquisition is going to give Matt Shaw any less of a chance of winning the job out of camp. Most of Turner’s plate appearances are likely to come against lefties, spelling lefty-swinging first baseman Michael Busch. The Cubs could also theoretically do some rearranging (Ian Happ to center, Seiya Suzuki to left) to give Turner some DH run against lefties, but that’s a big defensive downgrade from Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Pirates Sign Andrew Heaney for One Year, $5.25 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Pirates

Heaney hasn’t been anything spectacular over the last couple of years, but he’s a pretty good bet to take the ball for 25-plus starts for a third straight season. He’ll follow Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller in the rotation. Bailey Falter is likely to take the fifth spot, with Johan Oviedo, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, also in the mix. Heaney’s recent dabbling in bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen could prove useful down the stretch, assuming at least one of Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, and Anthony Solometo is ready to contribute at some point this year.

Nationals Sign Lucas Sims for One Year, $3 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Sims signed a deal identical to the one Jorge López got last month, and both will be taken into account for the Nationals’ open closer job after they non-tendered Kyle Finnegan. Sims ended the season with a rough 15 appearances for the Red Sox in which he walked more batters than he struck out, but has a good track record of swing-and-miss stuff. Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer could also get outs in the late innings for Washington.

Rockies Sign Scott Alexander for One Year, $2 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rockies

Alexander is one of just two relievers who is 100% assured of a spot in the Rockies bullpen, along with presumptive closer Tyler Kinley. Seth Halvorsen and Luis Peralta had excellent (small-sample) MLB debuts last year, Victor Vodnik showed some flashes and picked up nine saves, and former closer Justin Lawrence is out of options. Alexander’s ability to get grounders with the best of them should work quite well at Coors Field.

Rangers Sign Luke Jackson for One Year, $1.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

The top six (!!!) relievers in the Rangers’ projected bullpen weren’t on the 2024 club, though Texas is plenty familiar with Jackson, who made his MLB debut with the team in 2015, the last year of Mike Maddux’s first stint as the club’s pitching coach. The Rangers are probably all set with the bullpen now, with those top six spots locked in and no fewer than 10 arms vying for the final two.

Athletics Sign Luis Urías for One Year, $1.1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Urías figures to compete with fellow new Athletic Gio Urshela for the open third base spot, and he can also spell Zack Gelof at second base when he needs a day off. It’s possible that the A’s have just one open roster spot remaining for a position player, with the top contenders being Esteury Ruiz, Max Schuemann, Darell Hernaiz, Brett Harris, and CJ Alexander. The Other Max Muncy could make his debut sometime this year.

Nationals Sign Paul DeJong for One Year, $1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

DeJong is settling for a much more limited role than he signed for last year, when he agreed to a $1.5 million contract with the White Sox early in the offseason to be their starting shortstop. Despite hitting 24 homers in his best season 2019, DeJong had to take a deal for two-thirds of his 2024 salary. With the Nationals, he’ll have to fight for plate appearances at third base with José Tena and Amed Rosario, while also occasionally spelling CJ Abrams at short. Alas, the free agent market isn’t always rational, especially this time of year.

Guardians Sign John Means for One Year, $1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

For the 2025 Guardians, Means doesn’t mean too much. After undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in three years last June, it’s hard to foresee the lefty pitching for Cleveland at any point this year, since his first rehab took 16 months. If his recovery goes well, the Guardians have a $6 million club option for 2026, a bargain for a pitcher of Means’ caliber so long as he is healthy.

Who’s Still a Free Agent?

Remaining free agents who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Catchers: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann

• Infielders: Jose Iglesias, Anthony Rizzo

• Outfielders: Mark Canha, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta, Manuel Margot

• Utilitymen: Whit Merrifield

• Designated hitters: J.D. Martinez

• Righty starters: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull, José Urquidy

• Lefty starters: Jose Quintana, Patrick Corbin

• Righty relievers: David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Hunter Strickland, Dillon Tate, Craig Kimbrel, Héctor Neris, Joe Kelly, José Ureña

• Lefty relievers: Jalen Beeks, Andrew Chafin, Brooks Raley, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Smyly, Will Smith

Happy Valentine’s Day, everyone! It’s not all ❤️ and 🥰 for MLB teams, though, as the reporting of pitchers and catchers throughout the week has allowed some previously unreported injuries to come to light. The flip side of that coin is that injuries (and 60-day injured lists opening up) create more spots for lingering free agents.

There were a flurry of moves this past week, including the last two big dominoes to fall, with Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta finding homes. Here’s all that transpired, which as always is reflected frighteningly quickly on the FA Matrix and Trades/Claims page of the Offseason Matrices document:

Marquee Free Agent Signings

Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman for Three Years, $120 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Red Sox

With Rafael Devers entrenched at third base, Bregman is expected to slide over to second with the Red Sox. He played positions other than third base earlier in his career — mostly shortstop (966 innings) while Carlos Correa was injured, but also 32 innings at second and 3 2/3 innings in left field — but he hasn’t left the hot corner since 2019. Still, as Ben Clemens noted in his piece on the signing, “Bregman has always felt a bit like a second baseman.”

Top prospect Kristian Campbell looked to be in strong position to claim the second base job out of spring training, something that doesn’t appear to be in the cards any longer with Bregman’s signing. But injuries, slumps, and trades (Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida have had their names swirling in trade rumors all offseason) happen, and if the big three of Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony force the issue at some point during the season, the Red Sox will adjust their roster accordingly.

Effect on Other Teams

The Tigers and Cubs were reportedly the other finalists for Bregman’s services, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be looking for an everyday third baseman in the free agent or trade market. Bregman is a great player, and the Tigers and Cubs would’ve shuffled their rosters to accommodate him if they would’ve signed him, but neither team actually needed a third baseman. Indeed, both clubs have a top prospect who is expected to be their starting third baseman: Jace Jung in Detroit and Matt Shaw in Chicago. It’s possible that the two teams could still sign a third baseman, such as Jose Iglesias or Paul DeJong, as insurance just in case either Jung or Shaw isn’t ready, but both veterans would be nothing more than depth pieces.

Effect on Similar Players

I’m not sure any remaining position player will sign for even 10% of what Bregman received.

Padres Sign Nick Pivetta for Four Years, $55 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

San Diego now has four starters set in stone… if they don’t trade any of them. Pivetta will be in the middle of the rotation with Yu Darvish, behind co-aces Dylan Cease and Michael King. The structure of Pivetta’s deal (just $4 million in the first year between the signing bonus and base salary) helps the Padres basically kick the can down the road on figuring out their cash flow problems. Cease, King, and Luis Arraez are set to hit free agency after this season, freeing up tens of millions of dollars.

As for Cease himself, the Padres are reportedly inclined to hang on to him and make their rotation a real strength. Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez, and the newly signed Kyle Hart (more on him below) are the top contenders for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Effect on Other Teams

Pivetta was clearly the best remaining starting pitcher on the market, and if Cease and King are unavailable in trades, teams still looking for pitching are not going to be able to acquire anyone nearly as good as Pivetta, let alone better. Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and swingman Spencer Turnbull are the most notable free agents starters left.

Effect on Similar Players

There are no similar players left in Pivetta’s class, so his deal isn’t informative for anyone else. He got a really nice deal considering how late in the offseason he signed.

Angels Sign Kenley Jansen for One Year, $10 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Angels

Ben Joyce got some run as the Angels’ closer after Carlos Estévez was shipped off to the Phillies, but that job should now firmly be Jansen’s in 2025. The 37-year-old is 32 saves away from passing Lee Smith for third all time and 53 away from becoming the third member of the 500-save club, where he would join Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. All three players ahead of Jansen on the saves list are Hall of Famers.

Joyce’s more fluid usage might actually make him more valuable to the Angels. Last season, he averaged 4.9 batters faced per appearance until his first save on August 3 — including getting six outs five times — before closing out his year with an average of 4.1 as the ninth-inning man.

Effect on Other Teams

With Jansen heading back to Southern California, there are just two free agent relievers left who could conceivably serve as closers for a contender this year: David Robertson and Kyle Finnegan, and Finnegan was non-tendered! Still, he was an All-Star last season before his performance cratered in the second half. Some team might be enamored by his high-velocity fastball and have some tweaks in mind for his secondary stuff to get him back into high-leverage form. Meanwhile, the ageless Robertson only recorded two saves last year with the Rangers because he was behind closer Kirby Yates in their bullpen. But Robertson was absolutely brilliant (3.00 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 3.19 xERA) in his setup role and has plenty of experience closing games. Teams who could still use (but won’t necessarily add) a clear-cut ninth-inning arm include the Red Sox, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

Effect on Similar Players

Robertson had a better year than Jansen, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll sign a better deal. At this point in the offseason, there are fewer teams in the market for an established high-leverage reliever, so he may have to settle for less given then lesser demand.

Dodgers Sign Clayton Kershaw for One Year, $7.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

At the start of the season, there’ll be no real effect on the Dodgers. Kershaw underwent toe and knee surgeries at the end of the 2024 campaign, keeping him out of action for the Dodgers’ World Series run. He expects to open the season on the 60-day IL, and Los Angeles obviously has the starting pitching depth to withstand Kershaw’s extended absence.

Effect on Other Teams

No team has to pivot here: Kershaw was always going to remain with the Dodgers.

Effect on Similar Players

And there aren’t any similar players either, just waiting for one team to bring them back without considering the other 29.

Smaller Position Player Signings

Dodgers Sign Enrique Hernández for One Year, $6.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

Hernández’s addition could be considered a somewhat superfluous one for the Dodgers. In his appearance on Dodger Territory, Andrew Friedman said that it would’ve been “Kiké or nothing” in adding to the team’s offense.

Hyeseong Kim is the only one of the 13 hitters on the Dodgers’ projected roster who can be optioned to the minors, and it would probably take an especially rough spring training for that to come to fruition. Chris Taylor could, I suppose, be DFA’d following last year’s rough season, but he was decent enough down the stretch to make that unlikely. This means the likes of Andy Pages, James Outman, Dalton Rushing, and Alex Freeland will have to wait for an unfortunate injury to get time at the major league level.

White Sox Sign Michael A. Taylor for One Year, $1.95 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the White Sox

For now, the defensively brilliant Taylor will back up and provide insurance for oft-injured center fielder Luis Robert Jr., who’ll be flanked by Andrew Benintendi in left and a Mike Tauchman/Austin Slater platoon in right. Taylor could give Benintendi some days off against southpaws, but he’s not going to have a big role on the White Sox unless (or until) Robert is moved. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the White Sox had discussions with the Giants and Reds about a deal for Robert, but the likelihood of a trade coming into play before the start of the season is unknown.

Padres Sign Connor Joe and Jason Heyward to One Year, $1 Million Deals

• Leo Morgensten’s Write-Up of the Deals
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

Heyward and Joe should make for a playable, if uninspiring, left field platoon for a Padres team that’s extremely strapped for cash and in the midst of an ownership battle between family members of the late Peter Seidler. On days Heyward is playing, San Diego will have a formidable defensive outfield with Jackson Merrill in center and Fernando Tatis Jr. in right, and Heyward can always replace Joe late in games. The Padres could probably use one more hitter to serve as their DH (or part of a DH rotation), but it’s unclear if they have the budget for that. Tirso Ornelas is probably the front-runner for that role as the roster is currently constructed.

Which Hitters Are Still Left?

Remaining free agent hitters who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Catchers: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann, Luke Maile

• Infielders: Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Justin Turner, Brendan Rodgers, Anthony Rizzo

• Outfielders: Mark Canha, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta, Manuel Margot

• Utilitymen: Whit Merrifield

• Designated hitters: J.D. Martinez

Smaller Pitcher Signings

Guardians Sign Jakob Junis for One Year, $4.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

Junis made 18 relief appearances and six starts for the Brewers and Reds last year, never going beyond six innings or 73 pitches. That short leash fits the Guardians’ dogma well; they’re going to rely heavily on their bullpen, anyway. Junis figures to compete with Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Slade Cecconi, and Joey Cantillo for the fifth starter spot. If Junis isn’t in the rotation, he’ll be a Swiss Army knife in the bullpen akin to Pedro Avila last year.

Marlins Sign Cal Quantrill for One Year, $3.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Marlins

The 30-year-old Quantrill is, amazingly, the second-oldest player on the Marlins’ projected roster, just a week younger than Anthony Bender. His “elder” presence will hold down a rotation spot behind ace Sandy Alcantara, in addition to lefty Ryan Weathers and erratic righty Edward Cabrera. That leaves one rotation spot open, most likely to be filled by Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo, or Adam Mazur. Young phenom Eury Pérez should be back from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break.

Tigers Sign John Brebbia for One Year, $2.75 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

Brebbia is the second major league reliever the Tigers have added this offseason, along with the $7.75 million deal for Tommy Kahnle. The red-bearded righty was awful last season with the White Sox before turning in five really nice performances with the Braves to end his year, parlaying those into a nice little major league deal. He’ll probably be used in lower-leverage spots to start, though the Tigers’ fluid bullpen roles means he could pick up a few saves here and there.

Reds Sign Scott Barlow for One Year, $2.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Reds

Barlow joins a Reds bullpen that’s already full of veteran relievers. Barlow, Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter, and Emilio Pagán all have six-plus years of service time and will help set up for closer Alexis Díaz. Tony Santillan performing anywhere close to how he did last year (30.3% K-BB%) would go a long way toward helping a unit that looks to be stronger in name value than real value.

Padres Sign Kyle Hart for One Year, $1.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

Despite pitching brilliantly in the KBO last year, Hart had to settle for a modest one-year deal (plus a club option for $5 million, which can increase with escalators based on games started). And with the first four rotation spots already set and Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron also around, Hart won’t be assured of a rotation spot out of camp. Additionally, he can still be optioned to the minors (unless his contract includes a clause that says otherwise, but we haven’t heard that it does), so it’s not guaranteed that he’ll make the team out of camp.

Diamondbacks Sign Kendall Graveman for One Year, $1.35 million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Diamondbacks

Graveman has been a great reliever when healthy, with a 2.74 ERA in 187 1/3 innings with the Mariners, Astros, and White Sox from 2021-23, but he missed all last season because of shoulder surgery. He’ll slot in behind co-closers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, helping set up along with Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Joe Mantiply. We’ve currently got Jordan Montgomery projected as the long reliever, though he could pitch his way back into a rotation spot or find his way out the door in a trade.

Mets Sign Drew Smith for One Year, $1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

This won’t affect the 2025 Mets much at all, since Smith could miss the entirety of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. The contract includes a $2 million club option for 2026, allowing the Mets to keep Smith around at a low price if his rehab goes swimmingly.

Which Pitchers Are Still Left?

Remaining free agent pitchers who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Righty starters: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Chris Flexen, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, José Urquidy

• Lefty starters: Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Patrick Corbin, John Means

• Righty relievers: David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Buck Farmer, Adam Ottavino, Hunter Strickland, Dillon Tate, Lucas Sims, Craig Kimbrel, Héctor Neris, Joe Kelly, José Ureña

• Lefty relievers: Jalen Beeks, Andrew Chafin, Brooks Raley, Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Smyly, Will Smith

Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded before pitchers and catchers report! This time next week, spring training camps will be nearly full, with full squad workouts starting no later than February 18. Who exactly will be participating in those workouts is still fluid, but this past week was a busy one that provided a lot of new information for me to add to the offseason omnibus. Here’s what happened.

Marquee Signings

Mets Sign Pete Alonso for Two Years, $57 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

Bringing the Polar Bear back locks in all nine of the Mets’ starting spots barring any surprising moves or injuries. With their rotation and bullpen also seemingly full, I’d expect this to be their last major move of the offseason at any position, though they still could do a few things on the margins.

The Mets have tried to trade Starling Marte, and they’re reportedly willing to pay down some of his $19 million salary to move him, but it’s unsurprising that teams aren’t really biting. Marte is coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons and his value as a fielder has absolutely tanked. Other “excess” players the Mets could look to deal include righty starter Paul Blackburn, third baseman Brett Baty, outfielder José Azocar, and righty reliever Sean Reid-Foley.

Effect on Other Teams

The other team that (from the outside, at least) seemed to be most strongly in on Alonso was the Blue Jays, but they always struck me as something of an inelegant fit. They either would’ve slid Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back over to third or made Alonso, who’s always been a full-time first baseman, their primary DH. Attempting to lure Alex Bregman would make for a much cleaner fit in Toronto, but it’s unclear how willing or able the Jays would be to swing the six- or seven-year deal that Bregman is seeking. On a Bleacher Report stream, Jon Heyman named the Cubs as the current favorites for Bregman, but by how much is also unclear.

Effect on Similar Players

Alonso’s short-term deal doesn’t really affect what Bregman will ultimately get. Heyman reported last week that the third baseman has a “lucrative” six-year offer on the table, including an opt-out after the first year. Bob Nightengale reported on Thursday that Bregman “still has no interest in a short-term contract.”

Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty for Two Years, $35 Million

• Dan Symborski’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

Flaherty’s return gives the Tigers a strong no. 2 starter to slot behind all-world ace Tarik Skubal and sets up a doozy of a competition for the last one or two rotation spots behind Skubal, Flaherty, and Alex Cobb. Reese Olson appears to be a near-lock for that fourth spot, coming off 22 starts (112 1/3 innings) with a 3.53 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 3.64 xERA.

As such, there could end up being just one spot for top prospect Jackson Jobe, veteran Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize, Ty Madden, Keider Montero, and Matt Manning.

Effect on Other Teams

Flaherty was the best remaining starter available, but because both his market and ultimate deal were quite underwhelming compared to what other starters signed for earlier in the offseason, it’s unclear how many teams are still interested in adding high-upside pitchers to bolster their rotations. Nick Pivetta is the lone free agent option who fits that billing, but the trade market features plenty of enticing pitchers, such as Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Castillo, and Erick Fedde.

It’s also worth considering that Flaherty’s deal may have been more of a reflection of the individual pitcher than the market. As Michael Rosen wrote in mid-January, “The hot market for starters and the comparatively cool market for Flaherty suggest that, unlike the rest of the nominal ‘front-end’ starting pitchers at the top of the market, something about him scares teams.” On the surface, Michael noted, teams were probably a bit hesitant because Flaherty’s last healthy and effective season before last year came in 2019. Beyond that, though, Michael pointed more specifically to Flaherty’s fastball as the source of concern for his suitors. Those other pitchers I mentioned don’t come with the same yellow flags, so teams could be more willing to spend the money or prospect capital to acquire one of them. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Effect on Similar Players

Flaherty’s below-expectations contract may not be good news for Pivetta, who is three years older than Flaherty and was saddled with a qualifying offer, which Flaherty was ineligible to receive. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that there are 10 teams interested in Pivetta, though we’ve only publicly heard about three, marked on the Matrix in blue: the Blue Jays, the Mets, and the Reds. Two of those teams have added other starting pitchers since their interest in Pivetta was reported; Toronto signed Max Scherzer on January 30, while in December New York re-signed Sean Manaea and brought in Griffin Canning. Cincinnati’s interest was reported after the team traded for Brady Singer, but Pivetta doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Reds. The Great American Ballpark is a tough home stadium for fly ball pitchers like Pivetta.

The issue with Pivetta’s qualifying offer is that not only does it make teams more wary of signing him in general, but it also makes him less appealing on a short-term deal. Basically, teams aren’t going to want to give up their draft pick and whatever salary they agree to pay for a player who is only going to be around for one season. Understanding this, it seems possible that he still could get the three-year, $45 million median prediction (on the Total Spending Projection page), especially if there truly are double-digit teams interested in his services.

Righty-Hitting Outfielder Signings

Twins Sign Harrison Bader for One Year, $6.25 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Twins

The most glaring need for the Twins (besides money falling from the sky) was to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to balance out lefty bats Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, and they got their man in Bader. The defensive stalwart was actually worse against lefties last year (70 wRC+ compared to 93 against righties), but historically he’s leaned the other direction (109 wRC+ against southpaws for his career, 84 against righties).

Bader’s true calling is his aforementioned strong defense; while he hasn’t played a position other than center since 2018, the thought of him playing next to Byron Buxton late in games to help lock down wins is quite appealing. He can also get Buxton off his feet up the middle without the Twins having to give up much, if anything, on defense. The Twins could hypothetically start Buxton in center against righties with another player DHing, and have Buxton DH against lefties with Bader in center.

Diamondbacks Sign Randal Grichuk for One Year, $5 Million

• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Diamondbacks

Despite losing Christian Walker to the Astros, Joc Pederson to the Rangers, and Josh Bell to the Nationals, baseball’s highest-scoring offense in 2024 looks primed to be right around the top of the list again in 2025. Instead of platooning with Pederson at DH, Grichuk should platoon with Pavin Smith, who had a mini-breakout in 158 plate appearances last year.

All nine of Arizona’s starting spots look locked in unless there’s a trade, so the Diamondbacks are just left to decide on their backup catcher — either Jose Herrera, René Pinto, or Adrian Del Castillo — and their two other bench players. Six infielders — Garrett Hampson, Ildemaro Vargas, Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, Tim Tawa, and Grae Kessinger — are fighting for one spot, and three outfielders — Alek Thomas, Jorge Barrosa, and Cristian Pache — are competing for the other.

Pirates Sign Tommy Pham for One Year, $4.025 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Pirates

Pham gives the Pirates another bat, along with veteran free agents Andrew McCutchen, who signed what’s become his annual one-year, $5 million contract with Pittsburgh, and Adam Frazier, as well as trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz. That said, Pham is not exactly the impact bat the Pirates needed to provide run support for a rotation fronted by one of the best pitchers in baseball. At this point I don’t think an impact bat is walking through that door, so Pirates fans will have to settle for watching Pham platoon in right field with Joshua Palacios, or perhaps another lower-tier addition like Alex Verdugo, in whom they’ve expressed interest.

Orioles Sign Ramón Laureano for One Year, $4 Million

• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

Saying the Orioles’ outfield is jam-packed would be an understatement. Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be the starters against righties, with Laureano likely to fill a platoon role against lefty pitching. Ryan O’Hearn ought to be the starting DH against righties, which leaves just one spot on the bench for Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Carlson, and Daz Cameron, who’s out of options.

The lefty-swinging Kjerstad certainly merits a longer look coming off a 116 wRC+ in 114 plate appearances (despite not pulling a single fly ball to right field!), but a trade might be necessary to open up regular playing time for him. If Baltimore decides to move someone, O’Hearn or first baseman Ryan Mountcastle seem like the most obvious candidates.

Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams

The four signings above all happened in a 48-hour span and very quickly and dramatically shortened the list of available righty hitting outfielders who are at least capable of playing center field. Enrique Hernández is the best remaining player to fit that criteria, and he comes with the added ability to play all around the infield, too. Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Pillar can all play up the middle with varying levels of competence, and Mark Canha is a nice bat but hasn’t played any center field in the last two seasons. The trade market has Luis Robert Jr. as its jewel.

Effect of Their Signings on Similar Players

All of the free agent outfielders mentioned above will likely end up signing for less than what Bader earned. It’s possible that Canha and Hernández get contracts that fall somewhere in the range that Pham, Grichuk and Laureano received, but Taylor and Pillar might to have to settle for minor league deals.

Infielder Signings

Angels Sign Yoán Moncada for One Year, $5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Angels

If there aren’t any injuries, the Angels probably have all 13 position player spots locked up, though it’s worth noting that Zach Neto’s offseason shoulder surgery could cause him to miss the start of the season. In that case Kevin Newman would play short.

Moncada has played third base exclusively since 2019, so at least at the beginning of the season, the Halos have two starting-caliber third basemen. That said, both Moncada and Anthony Rendon have spent considerable time on the injured list in recent years, so having depth at the position isn’t a bad thing. As things stand, RosterResource projects Rendon to be the starting third baseman and Moncada to platoon against righties at DH, with offseason acquisition Jorge Soler playing right field. In this case, Jo Adell would play right field against lefties, with Soler sliding to DH. I still expect Soler to end up at DH more often than not, just because he really shouldn’t play the field much. Rendon could also platoon with Moncada at third or the lefty-hitting Nolan Schanuel at first, a position he’s never played as a professional, as a way for the Angels to give Adell regular playing time in right field. Then again, the Angels might not have this lineup crunch for long. Rendon has been hurt for more than half of every season since 2021.

Effect on Other Teams

I suppose the Angels could open up some playing time by trading one of their trio of returning non-Mike Trout outfielders, either Adell, Taylor Ward, or Mickey Moniak. But I don’t think that’s going to happen here, at least not in response to the Moncada signing. Really, the Angels brought in Moncada as insurance for Rendon. Playing time has a way of sorting itself out. Other teams will have to look elsewhere for an outfielder, and if they want a third baseman not named Bregman, their free agent options are limited to Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Luis Urías, and Miguel Sanó.

Effect on Similar Players

Coming off his resurgent (albeit BABIP-fueled) season with the Mets, Iglesias likely has his sights set on well more than $5 million. We haven’t heard much about his market. I think $5 million sounds about right — if not a little low — for DeJong, who popped 24 homers with a 95 wRC+ last season, both his best marks since 2019. I’d be surprised if Urías was able to find a major league deal, and even more surprised if Sanó did.

Lefty Relief Pitcher Signings

Twins Sign Danny Coulombe for One Year, $3 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Twins

Minnesota’s best-in-baseball bullpen projection just got a little bit better with the return of Coulombe, who pitched for the team from 2020-22 before being traded to Baltimore.

The lefty with three distinct fastballs and two distinct breaking balls will give the Twins a different look alongside hard throwing righties Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Jorge Alcala. Funky righty Michael Tonkin (who’s out of options) and Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano could round out the bullpen so the Twins can maximize their 40-man depth without exposing anyone to waivers, but Ronny Henriquez (also out of options), Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Louie Varland will be in the thick of the competition as well.

Yankees Sign Tim Hill for One Year, $2.85 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Yankees

The Yankees had exactly zero lefty relievers on their 40-man roster prior to re-signing Hill, so while he won’t light up the radar gun or strike many hitters out, he’ll play a key role for New York once again. This overall scarcity of left-handed pitchers though doesn’t mean the Yankees will struggle against lefty batters in the later innings. New closer Devin Williams neutralizes lefties with his signature airbender changeup, and setup man Luke Weaver also relies on a changeup to retire lefties. Meanwhile, Fernando Cruz, whom the Yankees acquired from the Reds, and Mark Leiter Jr. throw splitters to keep lefties at bay.

The Yankees currently have six starting pitchers for their big league roster, though Marcus Stroman could end up in the bullpen so long as he doesn’t get traded. Assuming he stays, there’ll be seven spots for traditional relievers, and a minimum of five are accounted for by Williams, Weaver, Cruz, Hill, and Leiter. That leaves two openings for the likes of Ian Hamilton, JT Brubaker, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Roansy Contreras, Yerry De Los Santos, and Yoendrys Gómez. Brubaker, Contreras, and Gómez are out of options. Jonathan Loáisiga, currently recovering from elbow surgery, should be able to help out by midseason.

Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams

The free agent pool has lost two intriguing lefty relievers, but there are still southpaws aplenty. Scott Alexander posted the lowest ERA (2.56) and highest grounder rate (60.0%) last year of any remaining free agent reliever with at least 25 innings of work; Ryan Yarbrough led all major league relievers with 98 2/3 innings; Jalen Beeks retooled his pitch mix to somewhat rebound from a bad 2023; and Andrew Chafin has a long track record of being somewhere between serviceable and dominant. There’s also Drew Smyly, Will Smith, Brooks Raley (who hopes to be back from Tommy John surgery in July), and others.

Effect of the Their Signings on Similar Players

The $1.5–$3 million range that Hill and Coulombe — as well as earlier signees Tim Mayza, Justin Wilson, and Hoby Milner — received feels about right for all but one of the lefties named above. Raley will likely get a back-loaded two-year contract coming off his injury rehab.

Trades

Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier, Cash (amount not yet reported) from Dodgers for PTBNL or Cash

• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Dodgers Roster Projection
• Updated Dodgers Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

Kyle Tucker will get all the headlines, but the Cubs have done a lot of work revamping their bullpen this offseason, too. Brasier, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan are all newcomers; of those four, only Morgan can be optioned. Expect the other three to be in the Opening Day bullpen, along with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and — if he’s not in the rotation — fellow newcomer Colin Rea. There’ll be at most three more spots up for grabs and a lot of arms battling for them, including Morgan, Julian Merryweather, Keegan Thompson, Nate Pearson, and Luke Little, among others.

Where the Dodgers Go From Here

There’s nothing else for the Dodgers to do here, as Brasier had been DFA’d.

Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded of January, friends! The offseason continues apace, even as three qualifying-offer-tagged free agents are without a team and Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal as the calendar flips to February. Let’s get to it.

Eight-Figure Free Agent Signings

Rays Sign Ha-Seong Kim for Two Years, $29 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rays

Right now, this has no effect. Kim will be out until May — at best — as he recovers from the shoulder surgery he had at the end of last season. Until then, Taylor Walls and José Caballero will cover shortstop, as they did last year. Once Kim is healthy, there might not be room on the roster for both Walls and Caballero since there are some redundancies between the two, though Caballero could get some time in the outfield to give manager Kevin Cash some more options.

Effect on Other Teams

Even if he won’t be ready for Opening Day, Kim was something that no remaining free agent is: unequivocally a starting-caliber shortstop. Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias are nice pieces who should play plenty for whichever teams sign them, but they’re not guys you’d ideally want to give four or five plate appearances every single game. Unless the Twins suddenly make Carlos Correa available or the Blue Jays sell (very) low on Bo Bichette, the trade market doesn’t have obvious answers for shortstop-needy teams either.

Effect on Similar Players

Kim was in a class of his own because of his injury, so his contract has little impact on any remaining free agents.

Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer for One Year, $15.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Blue Jays

If nothing else, Toronto’s rotation is rich with experience. Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt have combined for over 44 years of service time, with newbie Bowden Francis and his mere year of service likely to round out the starting five. Scherzer’s signing probably bumps Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen, giving the Blue Jays six capable starters at the major league level, with Alek Manoah due back sometime down the stretch.

That depth is important to have for any team, especially so for the Jays since they really don’t have much in the upper minors. For that reason, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to add another starter to the mix; they’ve expressed interest in Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, the two best starters available.

Effect on Other Teams

The Blue Jays were reported as the favorites for Scherzer the day before he signed, so this pairing shouldn’t come as a surprise for the other clubs who were in the mix. And it shouldn’t be all that disappointing either. Scherzer turns 41 at the end of July and is no longer the coveted ace he was for the majority of his career; he’s a quality veteran starter, but nothing more. To be clear, teams need quality veteran starters, but there are plenty of those still available, such as Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Kyle Hart, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, and Cal Quantrill.

Effect on Similar Players

AARP discounts apparently don’t apply to Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and Alex Cobb, all of whom signed for at least $14 million on one-year deals. Quintana, Gibson, and Lynn are all entering their age-36 seasons or beyond, and $14 million should be a reasonable target for all of them, especially with Cobb getting his payday coming off just 22 MLB innings (including the postseason).

Reliever Roundup

Royals Sign Carlos Estévez for Two Years, $22.2 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Royals

Estévez is certainly being paid closer money, and I’d guess that’s where he’ll slot in the Kansas City bullpen even if Lucas Erceg has better stuff and actually pitched better than Estévez down the stretch last season, after both pitchers were traded ahead of the deadline. Regardless of how exactly the games are finished, Estévez gives the Royals another high-octane reliever to go along with Erceg and Hunter Harvey. Side-arming righty John Schreiber will also have a spot, as should curveballing lefty Sam Long.

The Royals have a deep starting staff, so it’s possible that they’ll go with a six-man rotation to start the season; that would leave just two bullpen spots open for the likes of Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton (who’s on a guaranteed contract but wasn’t good last year), Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, and the out-of-options Carlos Hernández, among others.

Dodgers Sign Kirby Yates for One Year, $13 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

If you’re a fantasy player, your brain is probably spinning trying to figure out how Dave Roberts will dole out saves between Yates, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips. If you’re Roberts himself, you’re thrilled with the embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. This unit is so deep that, so long as everyone is healthy, there really aren’t any spots up for grabs to start the season; because Shohei Ohtani won’t be ready to pitch by then, the Dodgers can carry only 13 pitchers, with six of those slots reserved for starters. That leaves seven spots for the aforementioned five relief arms, plus Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. Indeed, this roster crunch is already on display: To make room for Yates on the 40-man, the Dodgers designated Ryan Brasier for assignment.

Ben Clemens included Yates in his write-up of the Tanner Scott deal last week, when Yates to the Dodgers was first reported. You can read that piece here.

Tigers Sign Tommy Kahnle for One Year, $7.75 Million

• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Michael Baumann’s Analysis of Kahnle’s Postseason Changeup-Spamming
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

Kahnle adds a veteran face to a ragtag Tigers bullpen that didn’t have a set closer for much of last year and probably won’t again. Like lefty Tyler Holton, Kahnle can get righties and lefties out thanks to his excellent changeup, and Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, and Will Vest should all factor into the late-inning mix as well. That leaves three spots and a host of relievers competing to fill them, including Sean Guenther and Brant Hurter, the unsung heroes of last year’s playoff run, Kenta Maeda, who could be boxed out of the rotation, and former closer Alex Lange.

Mets Sign Ryne Stanek for One Year, $4.5 Million

• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

Stanek’s re-signing gums up the works for a Mets bullpen that already doesn’t have a lot of flexibility. Edwin Díaz, A.J. Minter, José Buttó, and Stanek are locks to make the team, as is Griffin Canning if he’s not in the rotation. Assuming a six-man rotation is used to limit the innings of Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes, there could be just two bullpen spots left for a host of arms, including last year’s breakouts, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez, and three out-of-options relievers (Sean Reid-Foley, Dylan Covey, and Danny Young). Something will have to give, whether it’s a trade or two or simply waiting to see how spring training plays out and what injuries pop up.

Which Relievers Are Left?

Relief-needy teams are rapidly running lower on options, but there are still enough available relievers who should get major league deals to fill an entire bullpen or two. Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, and Kyle Finnegan could all sign on to be closers; righties Luis García, Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, Phil Maton, Joe Kelly, and Adam Ottavino are key middle-inning or setup options; and lefties Scott Alexander, Tim Hill, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, and Jalen Beeks have all shown they can get righties out, too. Rehabbing arms Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Yency Almonte, Trevor Gott, Daniel Bard, and Keynan Middleton could all be factors later on in the season.

Seven-Figure Free Agent Signings

Mariners Sign Jorge Polanco for One Year, $7.75 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mariners

While the Mariners certainly could’ve used more impactful offensive moves than just bringing Polanco back and adding Donovan Solano, their budget of around $15 million simply wasn’t going to allow for that.

There might be a little bit of room to squeeze another bat onto the roster without clearing someone else’s salary, but for now the infield looks more or less set. Polanco will start at third (not second, where he played last year), with J.P. Crawford at short, a combo of Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, and Solano at second, and the natural platoon pairing of Luke Raley and Solano at first.

Effect on Other Teams

The Astros were reportedly in on Polanco all offseason, and planned to move Jose Altuve to left field if they’d added him, which is also the plan if they bring Alex Bregman back to H-Town. All attention now turns back to Bregman and the Astros. The Astros want Bregman back, and there’s no reason to believe Bregman doesn’t want to be back. But at least from the outside, neither side seems any closer to budging.

Effect on Similar Players

The market for bounce-back infielders isn’t completely picked clean just yet. Yoán Moncada and Anthony Rizzo both had more injury-riddled seasons than Polanco, and Rizzo has struggled to produce ever since his concussion in late May of 2023. It stands to reason, then, that both will sign for less than Polanco, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising at this juncture if either or both of them have to settle for minor league deals.

Reds Sign Austin Hays for One Year, $5 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Reds

Looking for a bounce back of his own, Hays is a nice fit for the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, but what this signing doesn’t do is settle the jumbled mess that is the Reds’ roster. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Hays was seeking “more regular” playing time after a tough season in a platoon role for the Orioles and Phillies that led to his non-tender. So it stands to reason that Hays will play against every lefty and plenty of righties. Hays is an outfielder who can play first base, but this team has so many hitters that it’s hard to tell where exactly he — and many of the others — will play.

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz, catcher Tyler Stephenson, and center fielder TJ Friedl are locked into regular playing time at a single position, but everyone else might be bouncing around. Hays, Jake Fraley, and the out-of-options Stuart Fairchild can play all three outfield positions; Spencer Steer can play all four corners as well as second base; Matt McLain put up 3.1 WAR as a middle infielder in 2023, but he missed all last season with a torn labrum and then got some outfield time in the Arizona Fall League last fall when he was finally healthy enough to return to the field; and Gavin Lux’s exact position is still to be determined. Oh, and there’s also Jeimer Candelario, who plays both corner infield spots, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and utilityman Santiago Espinal. New manager Terry Francona will have quite the evaluation on his hands come spring training.

Effect on Other Teams

Hays would’ve made sense for a lot of teams as a relatively young (he’ll be in his age-29 season) former All-Star, but not every team could have offered the playing time the Reds apparently did, not to mention the home ballpark. Teams looking for a lefty-mashing outfielder who can still hold his own against righties could turn to Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha. Teams could also target glove-first righty hitters such as Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor.

Effect on Similar Players

Grichuk had a far better season than Hays, so it stands to reason that he ought to do better than $5 million, even though he’s four years older and will probably mostly serve as the short side of a platoon. That’s because he’s essentially mastered that role; over the last four seasons, Grichuk has a 137 wRC+ against lefties. The Red Sox, Pirates, and Giants have all expressed interest, as shown in blue on the Matrix. Canha, a high-floor, low-ceiling corner outfielder and first baseman, and Bader should get around the $5 million salary that Hays earned, and Taylor may have to settle for a minor league deal after failing to make it through 2024 on the Pirates’ roster.

Padres Sign Elias Díaz for One Year, $3.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

Díaz’s coming back into the fold should settle the Padres’ catching situation, even if he’s the only catcher assured of a spot. Díaz could be the starter, backup, or somewhere in between depending on who else makes the team. The three others in the mix are the former top prospect Luis Campusano, who was solid in a part-time role in 2023 before struggling on both sides of the ball last season, Brett Sullivan, who is out of options, and veteran Martín Maldonado, who is in camp on a minor league deal. Campusano and Sullivan are both on the 40-man roster.

Effect on Other Teams

The market for catchers got going pretty early; Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Carson Kelly, Gary Sánchez, Austin Hedges, and Jacob Stallings were all signed by December 13. Díaz is the first since then to sign a major league deal. The best catchers still available, Yasmani Grandal and James McCann, could still conceivably get big league contracts, while Luke Maile and Yan Gomes, who were both well below replacement level last year, will probably have to settle for minor league deals.

Effect on Similar Players

That Díaz was released by the Rockies midseason and still earned $3.5 million bodes well for Grandal, who just put together a sneaky 1.4-WAR season. He could perhaps double the $2.5 million he signed with the Pirates last year, when he was coming off a two-season span in which he combined for -0.5 WAR.

Orioles Sign Dylan Carlson for One Year, $975,000

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

Carlson’s deal is fully guaranteed but at a very modest price. In fact, this is now the cheapest free agent contract signed this offseason. (Congrats to Bryse Wilson for moving up to second cheapest!) That, combined with the fact that he can be optioned to the minors, means that Carlson is not assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster despite his major league contract.

As it stands, Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be Baltimore’s starting outfield, and DH/1B Ryan O’Hearn might get a little bit of playing time in the outfield corners as well. That leaves one or two reserve spots for Heston Kjerstad, the out-of-options Daz Cameron, and Carlson. Carlson’s switch-hitting and ability to play center field might give him an edge, but Cameron can play center as well. Spring training could be the deciding factor here. Plus, Carlson is coming off three straight years of what Davy Andrews in his write-up called “a spiral of injury and underperformance.” It’s possible that if Carlson, who is still only 26, is fully healthy for the first time since he finished third in the 2021 Rookie of the Year voting, he could be an excellent buy-low addition for the O’s. The most likely scenario appears to be that he starts the season in Triple-A and becomes a league-average depth piece in the outfield. There’s value in that, but it’s a far cry from what was expected of him during his days as a top prospect in the Cardinals system.

Effect on Other Teams

There was no guarantee that Carlson would get a major league deal after he put up an abysmal -1.0 WAR last season, and the other 29 teams still have plenty of internal and/or external options for reserve outfielders. This doesn’t have much if any impact outside of Baltimore.

Effect on Similar Players

Bench bats are a dime a dozen, but switch-hitters aren’t. Sam Haggerty and Robbie Grossman are still looking for jobs, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 and will likely have to settle for minor league deals.

Trades

Cubs Acquire Ryan Pressly, $5.5 Million from the Astros

• Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Astros Roster Projection
• Updated Astros Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

Pressly will be the Cubs’ first big-name closer since David Robertson was traded away in 2022, but his acquisition doesn’t necessarily mean they are out of the relief-pitching market. As shown on the Matrix in blue, they’ve expressed interest in a host of free agent arms, including old friend Robertson.

As things stand, Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, and Caleb Thielbar should all have set roles, leaving two bullpen spots still up for grabs if the Cubs decide to use a six-man rotation because of their glut of starting options. Some of those depth starters could also end up in the bullpen, though they wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cubs from signing multiple relievers if the right deal came about.

Where the Astros Go From Here

It’s natural for one’s brain to immediately react to the Astros’ dumping $8.5 million of Pressly’s salary as providing a lane for an Bregman reunion, but the timing of the trade might be more coincidence than prerequisite. As Chandler Rome reported, Houston had been trying to move Pressly for most of the offseason.

Pressly’s departure makes the bullpen an obvious area for the Astros to upgrade, though since the impetus of this trade was to save money, any additions the Astros make there would be more modest in nature. The emergences of Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Kaleb Ort could help make up for the loss of Pressly.

Reds Acquire Taylor Rogers, $6 Million from the Giants

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Reds Roster Projection
• Updated Reds Payroll Projection
• Updated Giants Roster Projection
• Updated Giants Payroll Projection

Where the Reds Go From Here

We haven’t yet heard from the Reds’ front office since the trade, but it wouldn’t be surprising to hear that they feel pretty good about their bullpen going into the season. Alexis Díaz, Rogers, Emilio Pagán, Tony Santillan, and Brent Suter will take up five of the eight spots, and Sam Moll should have the leg up for the sixth. After those guys, there’s a panoply of options for the two remaining slots: hard-throwing hurlers Yosver Zulueta and Graham Ashcraft; innings-eaters Carson Spiers, Casey Legumina, Connor Phillips, and Lyon Richardson; and veteran non-roster invitees Bryan Shaw, Alex Young, and Ian Gibaut.

Where the Giants Go From Here

While the Giants were able to clear half of Rogers’ $12 million salary off the books, they’re ostensibly not going to reinvest that money into the bullpen or even another part of the roster. That, however, could just be posturing by president of baseball operations Buster Posey to maintain leverage in free agent talks; as mentioned in the relief pitching bonanza above, there are plenty of lefty arms looking for jobs, and the Giants could sign one and still run a lower payroll than they would’ve had with Rogers. Right now, Erik Miller is the only southpaw projected to be in the San Francisco bullpen.

Rumors of the Week

• The Padres offseason has been very quiet thus far — Díaz is the only free agent they’ve signed to a major league deal — but things could pick up a bit soon. According to Rosenthal, trades of either Dylan Cease or Michael King “remain in play” as the calendar hits February.

The Padres are trying to thread the needle of improving their rotation while also cutting payroll, which is why they desperately wanted to sign the cost-controlled Roki Sasaki. But now that Sasaki is a Dodger, trading away a starter might be the best way to add to their rotation. That sounds contradictory, but let me explain. The Padres could trade Cease and his $13.75 million salary or King, who on Friday agreed to a $4 million deal for 2025 that includes a $3.75 million buyout on a mutual option for 2026, and end up with two starters from trading one away: one coming back in the trade, and one signed with the cost savings. King’s new contract structure makes 2025 savings more negligible than if the entire $7.75 million applied to 2025, but that doesn’t mean the Padres wouldn’t trade him if the right offer came around.

For example (and these are entirely speculative teams and names), the Padres could trade one of their starters to the Orioles, Cubs, or Mets, with Dean Kremer, Javier Assad, or Tylor Megill coming back to San Diego in the trade. Then, with the savings, the Padres could sign a cheaper arm like Hart, Quintana, Gibson, or Lynn, among others. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that San Diego could “consider” Flaherty or Pivetta if it sends a starter packing, though as things stand, it seems like the Padres would have a difficult time fitting either of those guys into their budget.

• Speaking of Lynn, he might not even sign as a starter! Rosenthal dispatches that some teams are interested in the big righty as a late-inning reliever, and the veteran seems plenty open to the idea as a late-career pivot. His fastball-heavy approach could work even better when facing only a few hitters, and maybe he gains some velocity back after averaging 92.3 mph with his heater last season, his slowest since 2017. We currently project six bullpens at under 2 WAR (for comparison, the Twins lead the majors with a 5.2-WAR projection): the Angels, Marlins, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox.

I began last week’s Matrix Reloaded with a note about the slow pace of the offseason in January, and that was still the case when the column was published at 3:35 p.m. ET. So, of course, less than three hours after that went live, Roki Sasaki announced on Instagram that he’d signed with the Dodgers. His signing kicked the market into gear, making these past seven days far more eventful than what we’d experienced in recent weeks.

For my neurotic Offseason Matrices work, that means a lot fewer blank cells and a lot more maroon cells, indicating a lack of fit due to a positional logjam. The game of musical chairs continues and free agents remain available to sign, but many of the teams that might’ve been interested earlier in the offseason have since filled their openings. That doesn’t necessarily mean that all of these players will sign for less than what they were expected to when the offseason began — though, as Ben Clemens demonstrated earlier this week, many of them will — but it does mean their options are limited. Without further ado, let’s get to the transactions that happened and what we can glean about the ones that may still be to come. Read the rest of this entry »

For the most part, I am the voice of reason whenever my friends complain about slow offseasons, reassuring them with statements like, “Be patient,” “Stuff will happen,” “The dam will break.” Over the last week, though, I’ve become completely Jokerfied. After a slow seven days, I am now fully in the camp of believing that nothing happens, nothing ever will happen again, and spring training will open in a month with plenty of unsigned free agents. Anyway, now that that’s all out of my system and I can be a little more rational — a month is still a long time, the dam can break at any moment, etc. — it’s time to get into the updates with the Matrix. Read the rest of this entry »