Author Archive

Matrix Reloaded: December 29, 2025

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Hello, and a very happy holiday season, everyone! After skipping last week, it’s a special Monday edition of the Matrix Reloaded, and as a bonus, you’ll also get a Matrix Reloaded this Friday, the first of 2026. You can find the Offseason Matrices document here. You know the drill by now, so let’s get right into the rundown.

Significant Signings

White Sox Sign Munetaka Murakami for Two Years, $34 Million

Effect on the White Sox

Does signing Murakami make the White Sox any likelier to make the playoffs in 2026 or 2027? Probably not. Does it make them way more entertaining to watch? Absolutely. This is the sort of move that a team like the White Sox should be making whenever it gets a chance — and those chances don’t come around often. In a free agent market full of talented players, two years and $34 million for Murakami’s 80-grade raw power should go down as the biggest upside play of the whole offseason, with boom or bust potential unlike any free agent I can recall. Read the rest of this entry »


Matrix Reloaded: December 19, 2025

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Happy Friday once again, everyone! The post-Winter Meetings period has seen an absolute flurry of deals added to the Matrix, so I won’t give my esteemed editor too long of an intro to tackle before we get to the past week’s signings, though I did want to share a quick programming note: Matrix Reloaded will be off next week, but as a gift to you, the reader, it will be back the following Monday (December 29) and Friday (January 2) to cover everything that happens in the interim.

And since this is the last Reloaded before the holiday, allow me to wish a very merry Christmas to those of you who celebrate! (I will be celebrating a very Jewish Christmas by watching football and eating sushi.) Now without further ado, here’s what happened around the league in the last seven days. Read the rest of this entry »


Matrix Reloaded: December 12, 2025

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Happy Friday (and Sad End of Winter Meetings Week), everyone. For those keeping score, my final coffee-consumed-to-transactions-completed ratio in Orlando (including airport coffee and transactions) was 132 ounces to eight transactions. In between kibitzing with my FanGraphs colleagues and the folks in the media who I only get to see once a year or had never met, the Matrix was humming along as always.

As ever, I’ll get into the big happenings of the last seven days, starting with bigger signings and funneling down to the smallest ones, and then going over trades. Read the rest of this entry »


Matrix Reloaded: December 5, 2025

Happy Friday, and welcome to this offseason’s first installment of the Matrix Reloaded column. There has already been plenty of activity ahead of the 2025 Winter Meetings, which kick off this Sunday in sunny (well maybe, I haven’t actually checked the weather yet, and also it doesn’t matter because I won’t be going outside) Orlando, Florida. Since this is my first roundup of the winter, let’s start with a refresher on how the Matrix works.

My precious, color-coded spreadsheet has plenty of tabs for your perusal, but my bread and butter is the main FA Matrix tab, which includes a self-explanatory summary of signings at the top and a somewhat less self-explanatory color-coded summary of rumors concerning unsigned players further down. The FA Legend tab right next door will be helpful in decoding it, but here I’ll note that what I classify as a rumor is fairly subjective, as the lines between things like “interested in,” “kicking the tires,” “have looked into,” and “believed to be interested in” are pretty blurry. All rumors are linked to each colored cell, and I encourage reading them for further context beyond how I’ve bucketed them into groups.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into the deals that actually have been completed in the last week or so. For larger moves, I’ll be hitting on three key points: how the deal affects the signing team; how it affects other teams; and how it affects similar players. For smaller deals, I’ll be more rapid-fire and talk only about the signing team; other teams aren’t going to react too strongly to a $2 million bench player inking a new deal. Read the rest of this entry »


The Pirates Are Sailing Without a Map

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been one week since the Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton and replaced him with former major league utilityman and Pittsburgh native Don Kelly, who served as Shelton’s bench coach for the entirety of his managerial stint. Firing the manager is one of the first moves made by an underperforming or flat-out awful ballclub, so there’s nothing surprising about Shelton getting the axe after a 12-26 start. But a manager’s record is only as good as the players on his roster and the money spent to build that roster, and Pittsburgh was deficient in both for Shelton’s entire tenure, which spanned five-plus seasons. During that time, the team posted a 308-441 record.

Now with Kelly at the helm, the Pirates are still on a ship that’s at best treading water; they are 3-3 in their six games since he took over, with five of them being decided by just one run. Perhaps Pittsburgh will be better with Kelly managing than it was under Shelton. After all, this is a team that at least has Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz. However, there is only so much that Kelly can do here. The core problems in Pittsburgh can only be solved with a drastic shift in organizational philosophy, and that starts with owner Bob Nutting and the person tasked with executing that strategy, general manager Ben Cherington. Read the rest of this entry »


The 2025 Payrolls… And Beyond!

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

As FanGraphs’ payroll and baseball economics czar, I expend a frightening amount of my brainpower thinking about team spending. I’m constantly trying to figure out how much money teams have spent and how much they will spend in the future. Since that stuff is always floating around in my head anyway, I thought it’d be a good idea to do something with all that information. Today, we’ll cover the payrolls for all 30 teams in 2025 and over the next three years.

Let’s start with the payrolls for this season, both real-dollar and luxury tax (CBT) amounts. There are a lot of small nuances that determine how the two numbers are calculated and why they are different, so I won’t get into the nitty gritty here. However, I am going to briefly point out some of the key discrepancies that you should know before we get to the data.

The real-dollar payroll uses the actual money paid out for each year of the contract, plus the prorated portion of the contract’s signing bonus, if it has one. On the RosterResource payroll pages, this is the number shown in the player’s column for each year.

Please note that for contracts with significant deferrals, the league’s Labor Relations Department (LRD) will recalculate their value to a significantly lower number than what is displayed on the RosterResource pages to account for the discounted rate. For each year, we show the money that ultimately will be paid out to each player. So, for example, RosterResource lists Shohei Ohtani’s real-dollar payroll value for 2025 as $70 million, even though his 10-year, $700 million contract is heavily deferred.

The CBT payrolls shown on RosterResource, and in the AAV column for each player, do accurately reflect how the league discounts contracts. I wrote more about Ohtani’s deal in particular here. Ken Rosenthal wrote more about the nuances of Ohtani’s contract’s three values ($700 million, about $460 million, and about $280 million) here; RosterResource only accounts for the first two values, while the league’s LRD calculation reflects the third.

CBT payrolls include ancillary expenses that the real-dollar payrolls don’t, including player benefits (estimated at $17.5 million this year), payment into the $50 million pre-arbitration bonus pool ($1,666,667 per team), and minor league salaries for 40-man roster players (estimated at $2.5 million per team).

Ultimately, CBT payrolls will correlate strongly to real-money payrolls, since many contracts are evenly distributed anyway, so they’ll count the same for each season by both calculations.

OK, now that we’ve got that out of the way, here are the top-line payroll numbers for the 2025 season:

2025 Payrolls
Team 2025 LRD Payroll (Millions) Rank 2025 CBT Payroll (Millions) Rank
LAD $390.1 1 $391.3 1
NYM $332.0 2 $325.7 2
PHI $288.9 3 $308.0 3
NYY $287.8 4 $307.7 4
TOR $251.3 5 $274.6 5
TEX $223.4 6 $236.4 9
HOU $219.1 7 $237.8 8
SDP $211.4 8 $263.2 6
BOS $211.2 9 $248.8 7
ATL $208.3 10 $225.4 10
LAA $203.2 11 $220.5 12
CHC $196.2 12 $216.2 14
ARI $194.7 13 $222.6 11
SFG $177.0 14 $218.3 13
BAL $165.2 15 $181.9 16
SEA $152.3 16 $182.4 15
STL $149.2 17 $164.8 18
MIN $146.7 18 $156.9 20
DET $144.7 19 $159.5 19
KCR $133.1 20 $171.6 17
COL $125.7 21 $146.4 21
MIL $118.9 22 $139.8 22
WSN $118.4 23 $138.7 23
CIN $116.2 24 $138.0 24
CLE $103.3 25 $131.2 25
TBR $90.0 26 $120.0 26
PIT $88.1 27 $112.6 28
CHW $82.5 28 $89.7 29
ATH $76.5 29 $115.3 27
MIA $69.9 30 $86.8 30

The Dodgers may well end up as the first team in major league history to have a $400 million payroll; Clayton Kershaw should earn at least some of the $8.5 million available to him in incentives. On top of that, even though Los Angeles sure looks like a juggernaut right now, we should still expect president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to make additions at the deadline that could increase payroll even more.

Flipping the chart on its head shows a couple of unsurprising bottom-dwellers in the A’s and Marlins. The A’s are successfully over the $105 million CBT threshold needed to avoid having the burden of proof placed upon them if the Players’ Association were to file a grievance against them related to how they allocate the revenue sharing dollars they receive. (Their real-dollar payroll is significantly lower because the contracts signed to get over that threshold are all backloaded.)

The Marlins, on the other hand, are evidently rolling the dice on being able to weather a potential grievance, with The Miami Herald reporting that the club does “not believe [it is] at serious risk of losing a grievance in part because of the wording of the collective bargaining agreement.” In the event of a grievance, the Marlins would argue that they are using revenue sharing dollars “in an effort to improve performance on the field” (which is all that the CBA stipulates the money must be used for) because they’re spending on non-roster expenses like front office augmentation and player development fortifications. Helping their cause is the fact that grievances against the team from 2017 and 2018 are still pending; in the club’s eyes, this is a can that can be kicked quite far down the road.

And now, let’s take a look at how teams are distributing their budgets:

How the Money Is Allocated
Team Guaranteed % Arbitration % Pre-Arbitration %
LAD 93.0% 5.8% 1.2%
NYM 91.7% 6.0% 2.4%
PHI 84.8% 12.2% 2.9%
NYY 86.1% 10.1% 3.8%
TOR 75.8% 20.5% 3.7%
TEX 88.7% 6.5% 4.9%
HOU 69.9% 23.7% 6.4%
SDP 77.0% 19.5% 3.5%
BOS 90.1% 5.0% 4.9%
ATL 92.2% 3.3% 4.5%
LAA 84.1% 9.6% 6.3%
CHC 81.0% 13.5% 5.5%
ARI 75.1% 20.9% 4.1%
SFG 76.6% 14.3% 9.1%
BAL 69.3% 25.9% 4.8%
SEA 69.6% 20.5% 9.9%
STL 76.1% 13.2% 10.7%
MIN 71.9% 20.6% 7.5%
DET 73.5% 18.5% 8.0%
KCR 78.6% 11.7% 9.7%
COL 78.8% 9.7% 11.5%
MIL 66.0% 21.6% 12.4%
WSN 56.0% 28.9% 15.1%
CIN 63.0% 26.5% 10.6%
CLE 67.6% 17.7% 14.8%
TBR 67.6% 13.1% 19.3%
PIT 69.2% 16.3% 14.6%
CHW 56.8% 20.9% 22.3%
ATH 68.6% 7.5% 23.9%
MIA 39.5% 21.4% 39.1%

Each team exists within its own context of what it’s trying to accomplish with its payroll, and having a higher or lower percentage within a given category doesn’t inherently mean anything good or bad. But it’s especially interesting to me to look at the middle column, or the percentage of real-dollar payroll allocated to arbitration-year players.

Since most of those players are between one and three years away from reaching free agency — along with the small group of Super Two players who have four years left — sorting from highest to lowest is a great way to answer the question: “Which teams have their rent coming due the soonest?” In other words, both Beltway teams have over a quarter of their payrolls hitting free agency within the next three years; will either of them make the effort to re-sign or extend key players like Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Nathaniel Lowe, and MacKenzie Gore? Those aren’t all extremely urgent decisions, but they’re much more at the forefront than, say, what becomes of Gunnar Henderson or Dylan Crews.

Speaking of the future, here’s what teams have allocated in payroll for the next three years:

Future Commitments
Team 2026 Commitments (Millions) 2027 Commitments (Millions) 2028 Commitments (Millions)
LAD $298.9 $301.9 $228.1
NYM $202.7 $171.6 $117.5
TOR $182.4 $136.7 $109.8
BOS $175.4 $162.1 $93.0
SDP $166.7 $177.6 $144.7
PHI $163.4 $127.9 $88.9
NYY $163.2 $157.3 $145.3
ATL $158.3 $127.0 $91.0
HOU $137.9 $120.2 $58.8
TEX $131.3 $119.5 $51.5
LAA $128.9 $58.1 $37.1
SFG $127.9 $115.6 $101.6
CHC $123.3 $31.5 $27.0
ARI $109.8 $101.7 $103.7
COL $84.0 $51.2 $38.2
SEA $76.1 $58.5 $44.9
STL $75.0 $38.5 $5.0
MIN $72.5 $68.7 $46.5
MIL $59.6 $42.0 $36.3
KCR $49.9 $43.3 $31.7
WSN $49.4 $5.4 $7.4
ATH $46.9 $20.2 $23.4
CLE $42.3 $36.0 $36.0
PIT $38.2 $40.7 $43.7
TBR $34.8 $23.0 $25.5
DET $28.8 $28.3 $5.3
CIN $28.8 $23.6 $17.3
MIA $25.8 $5.0
CHW $20.6 $15.1 $0.0
BAL $17.5 $16.5

Just so we’re all clear on what we’re looking at here: Future Commitments includes only guaranteed salaries from free agent contracts and extensions; we’re not including any projected earnings for pre-arbitration or arbitration-year players. Because of how our data is displayed on the payroll pages, single-year player options (highlighted in green on the payroll pages) are not included (like Pete Alonso), but opt outs for longer deals are (like Alex Bregman) factored into these figures. Essentially, we’re summing the white text on the payroll pages and ignoring any of the color-coded cells.

Even though the mechanism is the same in that the player still controls the cards, we create this line of demarcation (one year left on the deal is a player option, anything longer is an opt out) for a couple reasons. One is that the CBA itself makes that distinction, and the other is because it more closely matches how club, mutual, and vesting options work: They’re a single year 99% of the time. Opting out is a longer-term decision that’s also generally easier to make; if you’ve got multiple years left on your deal, you’d better be darn sure you can do better in free agency if you leave.

As I said before, each team is going to operate within its own budgetary constraints. The fact that the Diamondbacks already have $110 million on the books for 2026 may well make them more inflexible than the Dodgers or Mets this coming offseason, even though the Snakes have much less in the way of commitments.

Having more tied up in the future doesn’t mean that the team has less to do compared to teams with fewer dollars on the books, either. The Mets’ $202 million includes just eight players on guaranteed deals; they don’t have a particularly impactful arbitration class, and their only significant pre-arbitration player is Mark Vientos. They’ll have more to accomplish than the Red Sox, who are at $175 million, a total that includes Bregman. Excluding Bregman, Boston has nine players locked up, plus Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran, both key cogs, in arbitration.

Ultimately, my job is to compile all of the data, not necessarily to make sweeping declarations or draw any grand conclusions about payroll. I always caution that there’s a lot of nuance and team-specific context that often gets lost in more generalized comments, and the purpose of this summary isn’t to tell anyone how to think or feel about how teams are spending their money. That said, I’m looking forward to a spirited discussion in the comments section, and I’m happy to answer any team-specific questions you may have.


How the 2025 Opening Day Rosters Were Built

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Baseball analysts and team managers alike love to remind players and fans that Opening Day rosters are just one of many that each team will feature over the course of the season. And while that’s certainly true, the fanfare of making an Opening Day roster is an accomplishment that doesn’t get topped until players are lucky enough to find themselves as one of the 26 names on a postseason ballclub.

While Thursday’s rosters have already proven themselves to be ephemeral (RIP to Nick Gonzalesankle), it’s still a good opportunity to take a look back at how the rosters were constructed. Our Active Roster Breakdown will always be up-to-the-minute with the latest moves, if you’d like to peruse that at any point as rosters evolve throughout the season.

How the Players Were Acquired
Team Homegrown Free Agent Trade Waivers Rule 5
ARI 10 9 7
ATH 8 6 7 3 2
ATL 7 8 10 1
BAL 8 7 7 4
BOS 6 9 8 2 1
CHC 6 11 7 1 1
CHW 8 8 5 4 1
CIN 10 6 9 1
CLE 14 5 7
COL 13 6 5 2
DET 12 8 4 2
HOU 11 7 7 1
KCR 11 7 8
LAA 10 9 5 1 1
LAD 6 11 9
MIA 4 3 10 7 2
MIL 5 5 13 1 2
MIN 12 6 8
NYM 8 7 9 2
NYY 9 9 6 2
PHI 6 11 8 1
PIT 7 7 9 3
SDP 3 13 8 1 1
SEA 6 5 12 3
SFG 12 8 5 1
STL 14 5 5 1 1
TBR 6 2 17 1
TEX 6 14 6
TOR 5 13 7 1
WSN 8 9 7 2
TOTAL 251 234 235 47 13
“Homegrown” includes draftees, undrafted free agents, and international free agents subject to IFA bonus pools. Homegrown players who re-sign in free agency without joining another team in the interim are still counted as homegrown.

The Guardians’ modus operandi for years has been to build homegrown winners, and it’s unsurprising to see the Cardinals right there with Cleveland in that category considering how little St. Louis did this offseason. Conversely, because Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller keeps trading away their homegrown players, there are only three of them on San Diego’s Opening Day roster.

The teams that turn to free agency most are the ones that either have struggled to produce homegrown talent in recent years or, like the Padres, have traded away the top players in their system. Either way, because they lack capable internal options, they rely on the open market to fill out their rosters.

On the flip side, both Florida teams stayed out of the free agent market almost entirely. Nearly two-thirds of the Rays’ Opening Day roster (17 of 26) were acquired via trade. Meanwhile, the Marlins have been aggressive on the waiver wire since Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations after the 2023 season, and the players they’ve claimed are not just non-roster flotsam; Derek Hill and Otto Lopez are in their starting lineup, Connor Gillispie is their no. 2 starter, and Jesus Tinoco is a key setup man.

Age Breakdown
Team <25 <30 30+ 35+ Average
ARI 3 14 12 1 29.6
ATH 5 17 9 1 28.5
ATL 4 13 13 3 29.6
BAL 1 12 14 3 29.9
BOS 2 16 10 2 29.2
CHC 3 13 13 4 30.3
CHW 2 18 8 28.5
CIN 1 15 11 1 29.6
CLE 3 20 6 1 28.1
COL 5 15 11 2 28.8
DET 4 20 6 2 28.6
HOU 2 16 10 29.2
KCR 1 14 12 2 30.1
LAA 5 15 11 4 29.1
LAD 2 8 18 6 31.5
MIA 3 24 2 27.5
MIL 3 18 8 28.4
MIN 1 17 9 1 29.3
NYM 1 12 14 2 30.1
NYY 3 13 13 4 30.0
PHI 2 12 14 30.2
PIT 2 16 10 2 29.3
SDP 1 13 13 4 30.8
SEA 1 14 12 1 29.2
SFG 2 17 9 1 29.3
STL 5 17 9 2 28.6
TBR 4 22 4 27.6
TEX 3 12 14 4 30.7
TOR 13 13 4 30.6
WSN 5 18 8 27.9
TOTAL 79 464 316 57 29.3

Does it portend badly for the Dodgers that they’re the oldest team in baseball by over nine months? Well, no, they’re the Dodgers. But this list does reflect where a lot of teams are in their contention cycles. The Dodgers are in win-now mode, and while they’ll seemingly be in win-now mode in perpetuity, they’ll be doing that with older players. Even so, an aging roster doesn’t necessarily guarantee a winning one. As things stand, the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-oldest roster in the majors, appear to be nearing the end of their contention window. And that window could slam shut entirely if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who, at 26, actually brings their average age down — departs in free agency after the season.

Most of the teams on the other end of the age spectrum are either at the start of rebuilds (Marlins, White Sox) or are making progress but aren’t quite ready to contend yet (Nationals, A’s). Their average ages will get older as their roster gains experience and their window of contention opens. The Rays are always going to be young because they typically trade their homegrown players when they get older and more expensive.

Years of MLB Service
Team <3 >=3, <6 6+ 10+
ARI 9 7 10 2
ATH 17 4 5
ATL 10 6 10 3
BAL 9 11 6 1
BOS 15 4 7 2
CHC 8 9 9 2
CHW 16 4 6 1
CIN 10 10 6
CLE 17 4 5 2
COL 15 2 9
DET 14 5 7
HOU 11 10 5 1
KCR 11 7 8 2
LAA 11 5 10 4
LAD 5 5 16 6
MIA 23 2 1
MIL 15 8 3 1
MIN 8 11 7 1
NYM 10 6 10 1
NYY 12 4 10 3
PHI 6 8 12 5
PIT 12 7 7 1
SDP 8 9 9 5
SEA 10 8 8
SFG 14 5 7 3
STL 14 6 6 2
TBR 17 6 3
TEX 10 5 11 5
TOR 9 7 10 3
WSN 13 6 7
TOTAL 359 191 230 56

A slightly different way to look at this is by years of MLB service, which generally correlates with age but not always. For example, the Reds are a little bit older than the league-average team, but they opened the season with 20 players who have fewer than six years of service time. That’s because Cincinnati’s roster includes late bloomers Jose Trevino, Sam Moll, and Ian Gibaut.

Sticking with their youth movement, the Marlins’ most experienced players are Sandy Alcantara and Cal Quantrill, who have a combined 12 years and 60 days of MLB service entering the year. That’s a figure topped by 19 individual players on Opening Day rosters.

Lastly, let’s look at the countries where each team’s players were born.

Birth Country
Team USA DR Venezuela Canada Cuba Colombia Mexico Curaçao Aruba
ARI 17 3 4 1 1
ATH 19 4 1 1 1
ATL 14 5 2 2 2 1
BAL 15 5 1 1 2 1
BOS 20 1 2 1 1
CHC 23
CHW 22 2 2
CIN 24 2
CLE 17 5 2 2
COL 21 2 3
DET 22 1 1 1
HOU 15 5 2 1 1
KCR 20 1 4 1
LAA 20 1 1 2 1
LAD 19 3 1
MIA 17 4 2 2 1
MIL 19 5 2
MIN 22 2 1 1
NYM 18 4 3
NYY 19 2 4
PHI 16 2 4 1
PIT 22 3
SDP 13 3 3 1 3 1 1
SEA 16 6 1 1 1 1
SFG 20 3 2
STL 24 1
TBR 18 3 1 2
TEX 22 3 1
TOR 20 1 2 1 1 1
WSN 19 3 2 1 1
TOTAL 573 82 53 11 21 2 9 4 2

Birth Country
Team Japan South Korea Panama Honduras South Africa Bahamas Germany Peru Australia
ARI
ATH
ATL
BAL 1
BOS 1
CHC 2 1
CHW
CIN
CLE
COL
DET 1
HOU 1 1
KCR
LAA 1
LAD 3
MIA
MIL
MIN
NYM 1
NYY 1
PHI 1 1 1
PIT 1
SDP 1
SEA
SFG 1
STL 1
TBR 1 1
TEX
TOR
WSN
TOTAL 11 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 1

Specifically, I’d like to highlight the players from the least-represented countries in the majors.

Aruba: Xander Bogaerts (Padres), Chadwick Tromp (Braves)

Australia: Curtis Mead (Rays)

Bahamas: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees)

Germany: Max Kepler (Phillies)

Honduras: Mauricio Dubón (Astros)

Peru: Jesús Luzardo (Phillies)

South Africa: Rob Refsnyder (Red Sox)

Baseball truly is a global game, and I hope the game continues to grow internationally so that we can have players from more countries in the years to come.


The NRIs Your Eyes May or May Not See

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

In his piece on Tuesday, Michael Baumann described a “true sicko” of a baseball fan as one who has strong opinions on players signed to minor league contracts with spring training invites. If simply having an opinion on those players makes me a sicko, having opinions on the demarcation between those who do and don’t make Opening Day rosters means I probably need to be double vaccinated against whatever sickness that is.

Opening Day for all but two teams is less than two weeks away, so that means front offices are soon going to have to start finalizing their major league rosters. Many of the guys who don’t make the big league club will remain with their current organizations, but a good chunk of NRIs who don’t make the cut will have the chance to opt out of their minor league contracts and seek a major league deal with another team.

As stated in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, all XX(B) free agents — those with at least six years of service who ended the year on a 40-man roster — who ultimately sign minor league deals can opt out of their contracts six days before Opening Day (March 20); teams have until the March 22 to add them to the MLB roster or injured list or instead release them. Plenty of non-XX(B) NRIs also have opt-outs, though some of those may have gone unreported. Considering this, and for the sake of convenience, let’s assume that all of the NRIs mentioned in this piece are able to opt out if they do not make the major league roster out of camp.

Today, we’ll run through the NRIs who could end up in a different organization and possibly make an Opening Day roster. Because Baumann covered the NRI players who are projected to make Opening Day rosters, according to RosterResource, I’m going to do the opposite and touch on only the NRIs who, at least for now, are not projected to have a 26-man spot come the start of the season.

Catchers
Player Current Team Age
Martín Maldonado SDP 38
Tucker Barnhart TEX 34
Curt Casali ATL 36
Sandy León ATL 36
Max Stassi SFG 34
Omar Narváez CHW 33
Luke Maile KCR 34
Jorge Alfaro MIL 32
Tomás Nido DET 31
Christian Bethancourt TOR 33
Reese McGuire CHC 30
Andrew Knizner WSN 30
Austin Nola COL 35
Chad Wallach TEX 33

At least a few of these grizzled veterans would probably be upgrades over the catchers on some clubs, but even if they are, front offices will have to consider whether the new backstop’s talent outweighs the current one’s familiarity with the team’s pitchers. Catchers are almost never moved at the trade deadline because of the challenges that come with having to learn a new pitching staff on the fly, and while it’s true that the above catchers would have more time to get caught up than they would if they were joining a new team at the end of July, they’d still need to develop relationships with more than a dozen pitchers during the regular season, rather than in February bullpen sessions or exhibition games. A few of these backstops may well opt out of their current minor league contracts, but I wouldn’t expect them to sign a major league deal immediately unless an injury occurs and opens up a spot.

Teams That Could Come Calling: Rockies, Padres, Red Sox, Marlins

Infielders
Player Current Team Age
Nick Ahmed TEX 35
Nicky Lopez CHC 30
Brendan Rodgers HOU 28
David Bote LAD 32
Christian Arroyo PHI 30
Niko Goodrum SDP 33
Michael Chavis LAD 29
Abraham Toro BOS 28

Most of the players in this group have had strong showings this spring; all except Chavis and Rodgers have posted a 125 or better wRC+. To what extent that matters, well, that’s up to you, but the point is that there’s at least a little bit of intrigue and plenty of experience. Rodgers was a somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Rockies this offseason, and it was even more surprisingly that had to settle for a minor league deal and an NRI, but he may yet find the MLB deal he should have earned all along despite an iffy small-sample Grapefruit League performance. Lopez and Ahmed have a long track record of fantastic glovework, too, especially useful for teams scrambling to find bench help in response to injuries or demotions.

Teams That Could Come Calling: White Sox, Angels, Yankees, Mets

Outfielders
Player Current Team Age
Eddie Rosario LAD 33
Jake Marisnick ATL 34
Joey Gallo CHW 31
Manuel Margot MIL 30
Albert Almora Jr. MIA 31
Trayce Thompson BOS 34

There’s a range of defensive competence here — Marisnick and Almora can play a mean center field, but even in the corners you really don’t want a ball hit Rosario’s way these days — but they all have some sort of intriguing skill. Gallo, as has always been the case, has massive boom-or-bust potential; it’s been far more bust than boom lately, a trend that’s continued this spring training — he’s struck out over half the time. Thompson has probably been the MVP of the Grapefruit League with six (!) homers and has the best shot of making the roster of his current team.

Teams That Could Come Calling: White Sox, Tigers, Mariners

DH-Types
Player Current Team Age
Garrett Cooper ATL 34
Eloy Jiménez TBR 28
Jake Bauers MIL 29

Managers wouldn’t want these guys playing the field much, but every member of this trio has mashed in the not-too-distant past. Despite his inconsistency, Bauers was a threat in the middle of the Brewers order at times last year. Cooper was an All-Star in 2022 and hit a career-high 17 home runs in 2023. If Jiménez is healthy — a big if but still — he boasts more upside than any other hitter in this article. Teams with open time at DH could do worse than sign one of these bats.

Teams That Could Come Calling: White Sox, Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Giants

Utilitymen
Player Current Team Age
Jake Lamb SFG 34
Garrett Hampson ARI 30
Cavan Biggio KCR 30
Yolmer Sánchez LAA 33
Ildemaro Vargas ARI 33
Harold Castro KCR 31
Sam Haggerty TEX 31

Have a last-minute injury at any one of seven positions? Not liking how your existing options are performing on either side of the ball? One of these players might be your savior, albeit the most modest savior in human history. Hampson, Biggio, and Vargas all saw a lot of MLB action last year, and Hampson played everywhere besides catcher. (He even pitched a scoreless inning!) He and Haggerty also have plus speed and can steal a base or two off the bench if needed.

Teams That Could Come Calling: All of the clubs mentioned above, as well as some others, should be interested in the versatility that these players offer.

Starting Pitchers
Player Current Team Age
Carlos Carrasco NYY 38
Ross Stripling KCR 35
José Ureña NYM 33
Dakota Hudson LAA 30
Adrian Houser TEX 32
Eric Lauer TOR 30
Chris Flexen CHC 30

Teams in need of 25-plus starts should just see if they can work out a late deal with Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn. But the benefit of signing one of the above arms for a handful of starts is that they’ve been in camps, pitching in games, staying on schedule and in their routines. By contrast, Lynn and Gibson almost certainly won’t be ready to open the season in a rotation. Houser specifically strikes me as an intriguing option; his fastball velocity is up this spring compared to last year with the Mets, but the only way I can see him making the Rangers’ rotation to start the season is if one or more of their starters gets hurt. Sure, some of those pitchers are injury prone (hello, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle), but if they remain healthy through the end of camp and Houser opts out for a major league deal elsewhere, another club could scoop him up before a Texas starter goes down.

Teams That Could Come Calling: Athletics, Rockies, Red Sox, Braves, plus any team who wants a multi-inning reliever.

Relief Pitchers
Player Current Team Age
Jesse Chavez TEX 41
Adam Ottavino BOS 39
Jake Diekman ATL 38
Matt Moore BOS 36
Bryan Shaw CIN 37
Drew Pomeranz SEA 36
Luis García LAD 38
Miguel Castro HOU 30
Neftalí Feliz SEA 37
Chris Devenski NYM 34
Chad Kuhl ATL 32
Chasen Shreve ATL 34
Dylan Floro ATH 34
Ryan Yarbrough TOR 33
Jacob Barnes TOR 35
Trevor Richards CHC 32
Giovanny Gallegos LAD 33
Ryan Borucki PIT 31
Jalen Beeks HOU 31
Austin Adams BOS 34
Tanner Rainey PIT 32
JT Chargois TEX 34
Nick Anderson STL 34
Burch Smith PIT 35
Sean Newcomb BOS 32
Josh Staumont CIN 31
Génesis Cabrera NYM 28
Taylor Clarke KCR 32
Dan Altavilla CHW 32
Matt Bowman BAL 34
Dylan Covey ATL 33
Joey Lucchesi SFG 32
James Karinchak CHW 29
Jonathan Hernández TBR 28
Alex Young CIN 31
Kolby Allard CLE 27
Enyel De Los Santos ATL 29

I saved the best for last, and not just because it’s the longest list of players by far. Look at those names! I bet you didn’t even know Neftalí Feliz was still kicking around in affiliated ball. Heck, even I didn’t know that until I saw he signed with the Mariners. Jesse Chavez is hoping for yet another one last hurrah. (Justin Verlander is the only active player older than Chavez.) Meanwhile, a lot of the arms in their early 30s or late 20s are just trying to extend their careers for as long as possible or recapture successes from earlier this decade.

Teams That Could Come Calling: Take your pick of any of the 30 clubs. Teams always need relievers!


Matrix Reloaded: Offseason Breakdown Tables Extravaganza

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The offseason isn’t done until the season starts, but updates to the Offseason Matrices are fewer and farther between with each successive day. There’s just not that much left to happen: A few more players should sign MLB deals, and a few dozen others who were non-roster invitees this spring will find their way onto the main page of the FA Matrix after they make Opening Day rosters. There’ll be a few waiver claims as teams finalize rosters, and maybe some trades of larger significance, but perhaps not. Largely, what you see with teams right now is what you get. So, I figured now is a great time to recap what happened and give you a ridiculous amount of data in sortable tables.

As a reminder, the offseason document currently includes only free agency and trades, meaning that all of the dollar figures in the below tables correspond to free agent spending only, not payroll added via trades or extensions. For example, the extensions that Lawrence Butler (seven years, $65.5 million) and Brent Rooker (five years, $60 million) signed with the A’s this offseason aren’t included. If you’re curious about how these deals impact their full financial picture, head on over to the RosterResource payroll pages, where you’ll find that the two extensions bring the team’s luxury tax payroll to about $115 million for 2025. As extensions are the Offseason Matrices’ one big blind spot, I plan on including those next offseason!

Before diving in, here are the notable players still on the free agent market who have at least decent odds of securing last-minute MLB contracts: Read the rest of this entry »


Matrix Reloaded: February 21, 2025

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The heavy lifting for the offseason appears to be over, unless there’s a big trade coming down the pike. (Remember, Dylan Cease wasn’t moved from the White Sox to the Padres until March 13 last year.) But that doesn’t mean nothing has happened in the last week; there were still some stragglers on the free agent market who found teams as spring camps opened, and there’ll be more yet in the lead up to Opening Day. Let’s go over the moves, all of which are updated in the Offseason Matrices document.

Free Agent Signings

Cubs Sign Justin Turner for One Year, $6 Million

Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal
Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

Turner’s days of getting significant action at third base are over, so I don’t think his acquisition is going to give Matt Shaw any less of a chance of winning the job out of camp. Most of Turner’s plate appearances are likely to come against lefties, spelling lefty-swinging first baseman Michael Busch. The Cubs could also theoretically do some rearranging (Ian Happ to center, Seiya Suzuki to left) to give Turner some DH run against lefties, but that’s a big defensive downgrade from Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Pirates Sign Andrew Heaney for One Year, $5.25 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Pirates

Heaney hasn’t been anything spectacular over the last couple of years, but he’s a pretty good bet to take the ball for 25-plus starts for a third straight season. He’ll follow Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller in the rotation. Bailey Falter is likely to take the fifth spot, with Johan Oviedo, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, also in the mix. Heaney’s recent dabbling in bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen could prove useful down the stretch, assuming at least one of Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, and Anthony Solometo is ready to contribute at some point this year.

Nationals Sign Lucas Sims for One Year, $3 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Sims signed a deal identical to the one Jorge López got last month, and both will be taken into account for the Nationals’ open closer job after they non-tendered Kyle Finnegan. Sims ended the season with a rough 15 appearances for the Red Sox in which he walked more batters than he struck out, but has a good track record of swing-and-miss stuff. Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer could also get outs in the late innings for Washington.

Rockies Sign Scott Alexander for One Year, $2 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rockies

Alexander is one of just two relievers who is 100% assured of a spot in the Rockies bullpen, along with presumptive closer Tyler Kinley. Seth Halvorsen and Luis Peralta had excellent (small-sample) MLB debuts last year, Victor Vodnik showed some flashes and picked up nine saves, and former closer Justin Lawrence is out of options. Alexander’s ability to get grounders with the best of them should work quite well at Coors Field.

Rangers Sign Luke Jackson for One Year, $1.5 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

The top six (!!!) relievers in the Rangers’ projected bullpen weren’t on the 2024 club, though Texas is plenty familiar with Jackson, who made his MLB debut with the team in 2015, the last year of Mike Maddux’s first stint as the club’s pitching coach. The Rangers are probably all set with the bullpen now, with those top six spots locked in and no fewer than 10 arms vying for the final two.

Athletics Sign Luis Urías for One Year, $1.1 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Urías figures to compete with fellow new Athletic Gio Urshela for the open third base spot, and he can also spell Zack Gelof at second base when he needs a day off. It’s possible that the A’s have just one open roster spot remaining for a position player, with the top contenders being Esteury Ruiz, Max Schuemann, Darell Hernaiz, Brett Harris, and CJ Alexander. The Other Max Muncy could make his debut sometime this year.

Nationals Sign Paul DeJong for One Year, $1 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

DeJong is settling for a much more limited role than he signed for last year, when he agreed to a $1.5 million contract with the White Sox early in the offseason to be their starting shortstop. Despite hitting 24 homers in his best season 2019, DeJong had to take a deal for two-thirds of his 2024 salary. With the Nationals, he’ll have to fight for plate appearances at third base with José Tena and Amed Rosario, while also occasionally spelling CJ Abrams at short. Alas, the free agent market isn’t always rational, especially this time of year.

Guardians Sign John Means for One Year, $1 Million

Updated Roster Projection
Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

For the 2025 Guardians, Means doesn’t mean too much. After undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in three years last June, it’s hard to foresee the lefty pitching for Cleveland at any point this year, since his first rehab took 16 months. If his recovery goes well, the Guardians have a $6 million club option for 2026, a bargain for a pitcher of Means’ caliber so long as he is healthy.

Who’s Still a Free Agent?

Remaining free agents who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Catchers: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann

• Infielders: Jose Iglesias, Anthony Rizzo

• Outfielders: Mark Canha, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta, Manuel Margot

• Utilitymen: Whit Merrifield

• Designated hitters: J.D. Martinez

• Righty starters: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull, José Urquidy

• Lefty starters: Jose Quintana, Patrick Corbin

• Righty relievers: David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Hunter Strickland, Dillon Tate, Craig Kimbrel, Héctor Neris, Joe Kelly, José Ureña

• Lefty relievers: Jalen Beeks, Andrew Chafin, Brooks Raley, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Smyly, Will Smith