Happy Valentine’s Day, everyone! It’s not all ❤️ and 🥰 for MLB teams, though, as the reporting of pitchers and catchers throughout the week has allowed some previously unreported injuries to come to light. The flip side of that coin is that injuries (and 60-day injured lists opening up) create more spots for lingering free agents.

There were a flurry of moves this past week, including the last two big dominoes to fall, with Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta finding homes. Here’s all that transpired, which as always is reflected frighteningly quickly on the FA Matrix and Trades/Claims page of the Offseason Matrices document:

Marquee Free Agent Signings

Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman for Three Years, $120 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Red Sox

With Rafael Devers entrenched at third base, Bregman is expected to slide over to second with the Red Sox. He played positions other than third base earlier in his career — mostly shortstop (966 innings) while Carlos Correa was injured, but also 32 innings at second and 3 2/3 innings in left field — but he hasn’t left the hot corner since 2019. Still, as Ben Clemens noted in his piece on the signing, “Bregman has always felt a bit like a second baseman.”

Top prospect Kristian Campbell looked to be in strong position to claim the second base job out of spring training, something that doesn’t appear to be in the cards any longer with Bregman’s signing. But injuries, slumps, and trades (Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida have had their names swirling in trade rumors all offseason) happen, and if the big three of Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony force the issue at some point during the season, the Red Sox will adjust their roster accordingly.

Effect on Other Teams

The Tigers and Cubs were reportedly the other finalists for Bregman’s services, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be looking for an everyday third baseman in the free agent or trade market. Bregman is a great player, and the Tigers and Cubs would’ve shuffled their rosters to accommodate him if they would’ve signed him, but neither team actually needed a third baseman. Indeed, both clubs have a top prospect who is expected to be their starting third baseman: Jace Jung in Detroit and Matt Shaw in Chicago. It’s possible that the two teams could still sign a third baseman, such as Jose Iglesias or Paul DeJong, as insurance just in case either Jung or Shaw isn’t ready, but both veterans would be nothing more than depth pieces.

Effect on Similar Players

I’m not sure any remaining position player will sign for even 10% of what Bregman received.

Padres Sign Nick Pivetta for Four Years, $55 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

San Diego now has four starters set in stone… if they don’t trade any of them. Pivetta will be in the middle of the rotation with Yu Darvish, behind co-aces Dylan Cease and Michael King. The structure of Pivetta’s deal (just $4 million in the first year between the signing bonus and base salary) helps the Padres basically kick the can down the road on figuring out their cash flow problems. Cease, King, and Luis Arraez are set to hit free agency after this season, freeing up tens of millions of dollars.

As for Cease himself, the Padres are reportedly inclined to hang on to him and make their rotation a real strength. Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez, and the newly signed Kyle Hart (more on him below) are the top contenders for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Effect on Other Teams

Pivetta was clearly the best remaining starting pitcher on the market, and if Cease and King are unavailable in trades, teams still looking for pitching are not going to be able to acquire anyone nearly as good as Pivetta, let alone better. Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and swingman Spencer Turnbull are the most notable free agents starters left.

Effect on Similar Players

There are no similar players left in Pivetta’s class, so his deal isn’t informative for anyone else. He got a really nice deal considering how late in the offseason he signed.

Angels Sign Kenley Jansen for One Year, $10 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Angels

Ben Joyce got some run as the Angels’ closer after Carlos Estévez was shipped off to the Phillies, but that job should now firmly be Jansen’s in 2025. The 37-year-old is 32 saves away from passing Lee Smith for third all time and 53 away from becoming the third member of the 500-save club, where he would join Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. All three players ahead of Jansen on the saves list are Hall of Famers.

Joyce’s more fluid usage might actually make him more valuable to the Angels. Last season, he averaged 4.9 batters faced per appearance until his first save on August 3 — including getting six outs five times — before closing out his year with an average of 4.1 as the ninth-inning man.

Effect on Other Teams

With Jansen heading back to Southern California, there are just two free agent relievers left who could conceivably serve as closers for a contender this year: David Robertson and Kyle Finnegan, and Finnegan was non-tendered! Still, he was an All-Star last season before his performance cratered in the second half. Some team might be enamored by his high-velocity fastball and have some tweaks in mind for his secondary stuff to get him back into high-leverage form. Meanwhile, the ageless Robertson only recorded two saves last year with the Rangers because he was behind closer Kirby Yates in their bullpen. But Robertson was absolutely brilliant (3.00 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 3.19 xERA) in his setup role and has plenty of experience closing games. Teams who could still use (but won’t necessarily add) a clear-cut ninth-inning arm include the Red Sox, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

Effect on Similar Players

Robertson had a better year than Jansen, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll sign a better deal. At this point in the offseason, there are fewer teams in the market for an established high-leverage reliever, so he may have to settle for less given then lesser demand.

Dodgers Sign Clayton Kershaw for One Year, $7.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

At the start of the season, there’ll be no real effect on the Dodgers. Kershaw underwent toe and knee surgeries at the end of the 2024 campaign, keeping him out of action for the Dodgers’ World Series run. He expects to open the season on the 60-day IL, and Los Angeles obviously has the starting pitching depth to withstand Kershaw’s extended absence.

Effect on Other Teams

No team has to pivot here: Kershaw was always going to remain with the Dodgers.

Effect on Similar Players

And there aren’t any similar players either, just waiting for one team to bring them back without considering the other 29.

Smaller Position Player Signings

Dodgers Sign Enrique Hernández for One Year, $6.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

Hernández’s addition could be considered a somewhat superfluous one for the Dodgers. In his appearance on Dodger Territory, Andrew Friedman said that it would’ve been “Kiké or nothing” in adding to the team’s offense.

Hyeseong Kim is the only one of the 13 hitters on the Dodgers’ projected roster who can be optioned to the minors, and it would probably take an especially rough spring training for that to come to fruition. Chris Taylor could, I suppose, be DFA’d following last year’s rough season, but he was decent enough down the stretch to make that unlikely. This means the likes of Andy Pages, James Outman, Dalton Rushing, and Alex Freeland will have to wait for an unfortunate injury to get time at the major league level.

White Sox Sign Michael A. Taylor for One Year, $1.95 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the White Sox

For now, the defensively brilliant Taylor will back up and provide insurance for oft-injured center fielder Luis Robert Jr., who’ll be flanked by Andrew Benintendi in left and a Mike Tauchman/Austin Slater platoon in right. Taylor could give Benintendi some days off against southpaws, but he’s not going to have a big role on the White Sox unless (or until) Robert is moved. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the White Sox had discussions with the Giants and Reds about a deal for Robert, but the likelihood of a trade coming into play before the start of the season is unknown.

Padres Sign Connor Joe and Jason Heyward to One Year, $1 Million Deals

• Leo Morgensten’s Write-Up of the Deals
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

Heyward and Joe should make for a playable, if uninspiring, left field platoon for a Padres team that’s extremely strapped for cash and in the midst of an ownership battle between family members of the late Peter Seidler. On days Heyward is playing, San Diego will have a formidable defensive outfield with Jackson Merrill in center and Fernando Tatis Jr. in right, and Heyward can always replace Joe late in games. The Padres could probably use one more hitter to serve as their DH (or part of a DH rotation), but it’s unclear if they have the budget for that. Tirso Ornelas is probably the front-runner for that role as the roster is currently constructed.

Which Hitters Are Still Left?

Remaining free agent hitters who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Catchers: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann, Luke Maile

• Infielders: Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Justin Turner, Brendan Rodgers, Anthony Rizzo

• Outfielders: Mark Canha, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta, Manuel Margot

• Utilitymen: Whit Merrifield

• Designated hitters: J.D. Martinez

Smaller Pitcher Signings

Guardians Sign Jakob Junis for One Year, $4.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

Junis made 18 relief appearances and six starts for the Brewers and Reds last year, never going beyond six innings or 73 pitches. That short leash fits the Guardians’ dogma well; they’re going to rely heavily on their bullpen, anyway. Junis figures to compete with Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Slade Cecconi, and Joey Cantillo for the fifth starter spot. If Junis isn’t in the rotation, he’ll be a Swiss Army knife in the bullpen akin to Pedro Avila last year.

Marlins Sign Cal Quantrill for One Year, $3.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Marlins

The 30-year-old Quantrill is, amazingly, the second-oldest player on the Marlins’ projected roster, just a week younger than Anthony Bender. His “elder” presence will hold down a rotation spot behind ace Sandy Alcantara, in addition to lefty Ryan Weathers and erratic righty Edward Cabrera. That leaves one rotation spot open, most likely to be filled by Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo, or Adam Mazur. Young phenom Eury Pérez should be back from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break.

Tigers Sign John Brebbia for One Year, $2.75 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

Brebbia is the second major league reliever the Tigers have added this offseason, along with the $7.75 million deal for Tommy Kahnle. The red-bearded righty was awful last season with the White Sox before turning in five really nice performances with the Braves to end his year, parlaying those into a nice little major league deal. He’ll probably be used in lower-leverage spots to start, though the Tigers’ fluid bullpen roles means he could pick up a few saves here and there.

Reds Sign Scott Barlow for One Year, $2.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Reds

Barlow joins a Reds bullpen that’s already full of veteran relievers. Barlow, Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter, and Emilio Pagán all have six-plus years of service time and will help set up for closer Alexis Díaz. Tony Santillan performing anywhere close to how he did last year (30.3% K-BB%) would go a long way toward helping a unit that looks to be stronger in name value than real value.

Padres Sign Kyle Hart for One Year, $1.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

Despite pitching brilliantly in the KBO last year, Hart had to settle for a modest one-year deal (plus a club option for $5 million, which can increase with escalators based on games started). And with the first four rotation spots already set and Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron also around, Hart won’t be assured of a rotation spot out of camp. Additionally, he can still be optioned to the minors (unless his contract includes a clause that says otherwise, but we haven’t heard that it does), so it’s not guaranteed that he’ll make the team out of camp.

Diamondbacks Sign Kendall Graveman for One Year, $1.35 million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Diamondbacks

Graveman has been a great reliever when healthy, with a 2.74 ERA in 187 1/3 innings with the Mariners, Astros, and White Sox from 2021-23, but he missed all last season because of shoulder surgery. He’ll slot in behind co-closers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, helping set up along with Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Joe Mantiply. We’ve currently got Jordan Montgomery projected as the long reliever, though he could pitch his way back into a rotation spot or find his way out the door in a trade.

Mets Sign Drew Smith for One Year, $1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

This won’t affect the 2025 Mets much at all, since Smith could miss the entirety of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. The contract includes a $2 million club option for 2026, allowing the Mets to keep Smith around at a low price if his rehab goes swimmingly.

Which Pitchers Are Still Left?

Remaining free agent pitchers who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Righty starters: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Chris Flexen, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, José Urquidy

• Lefty starters: Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Patrick Corbin, John Means

• Righty relievers: David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Buck Farmer, Adam Ottavino, Hunter Strickland, Dillon Tate, Lucas Sims, Craig Kimbrel, Héctor Neris, Joe Kelly, José Ureña

• Lefty relievers: Jalen Beeks, Andrew Chafin, Brooks Raley, Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Smyly, Will Smith

Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded before pitchers and catchers report! This time next week, spring training camps will be nearly full, with full squad workouts starting no later than February 18. Who exactly will be participating in those workouts is still fluid, but this past week was a busy one that provided a lot of new information for me to add to the offseason omnibus. Here’s what happened.

Marquee Signings

Mets Sign Pete Alonso for Two Years, $57 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

Bringing the Polar Bear back locks in all nine of the Mets’ starting spots barring any surprising moves or injuries. With their rotation and bullpen also seemingly full, I’d expect this to be their last major move of the offseason at any position, though they still could do a few things on the margins.

The Mets have tried to trade Starling Marte, and they’re reportedly willing to pay down some of his $19 million salary to move him, but it’s unsurprising that teams aren’t really biting. Marte is coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons and his value as a fielder has absolutely tanked. Other “excess” players the Mets could look to deal include righty starter Paul Blackburn, third baseman Brett Baty, outfielder José Azocar, and righty reliever Sean Reid-Foley.

Effect on Other Teams

The other team that (from the outside, at least) seemed to be most strongly in on Alonso was the Blue Jays, but they always struck me as something of an inelegant fit. They either would’ve slid Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back over to third or made Alonso, who’s always been a full-time first baseman, their primary DH. Attempting to lure Alex Bregman would make for a much cleaner fit in Toronto, but it’s unclear how willing or able the Jays would be to swing the six- or seven-year deal that Bregman is seeking. On a Bleacher Report stream, Jon Heyman named the Cubs as the current favorites for Bregman, but by how much is also unclear.

Effect on Similar Players

Alonso’s short-term deal doesn’t really affect what Bregman will ultimately get. Heyman reported last week that the third baseman has a “lucrative” six-year offer on the table, including an opt-out after the first year. Bob Nightengale reported on Thursday that Bregman “still has no interest in a short-term contract.”

Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty for Two Years, $35 Million

• Dan Symborski’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

Flaherty’s return gives the Tigers a strong no. 2 starter to slot behind all-world ace Tarik Skubal and sets up a doozy of a competition for the last one or two rotation spots behind Skubal, Flaherty, and Alex Cobb. Reese Olson appears to be a near-lock for that fourth spot, coming off 22 starts (112 1/3 innings) with a 3.53 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 3.64 xERA.

As such, there could end up being just one spot for top prospect Jackson Jobe, veteran Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize, Ty Madden, Keider Montero, and Matt Manning.

Effect on Other Teams

Flaherty was the best remaining starter available, but because both his market and ultimate deal were quite underwhelming compared to what other starters signed for earlier in the offseason, it’s unclear how many teams are still interested in adding high-upside pitchers to bolster their rotations. Nick Pivetta is the lone free agent option who fits that billing, but the trade market features plenty of enticing pitchers, such as Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Castillo, and Erick Fedde.

It’s also worth considering that Flaherty’s deal may have been more of a reflection of the individual pitcher than the market. As Michael Rosen wrote in mid-January, “The hot market for starters and the comparatively cool market for Flaherty suggest that, unlike the rest of the nominal ‘front-end’ starting pitchers at the top of the market, something about him scares teams.” On the surface, Michael noted, teams were probably a bit hesitant because Flaherty’s last healthy and effective season before last year came in 2019. Beyond that, though, Michael pointed more specifically to Flaherty’s fastball as the source of concern for his suitors. Those other pitchers I mentioned don’t come with the same yellow flags, so teams could be more willing to spend the money or prospect capital to acquire one of them. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Effect on Similar Players

Flaherty’s below-expectations contract may not be good news for Pivetta, who is three years older than Flaherty and was saddled with a qualifying offer, which Flaherty was ineligible to receive. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that there are 10 teams interested in Pivetta, though we’ve only publicly heard about three, marked on the Matrix in blue: the Blue Jays, the Mets, and the Reds. Two of those teams have added other starting pitchers since their interest in Pivetta was reported; Toronto signed Max Scherzer on January 30, while in December New York re-signed Sean Manaea and brought in Griffin Canning. Cincinnati’s interest was reported after the team traded for Brady Singer, but Pivetta doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Reds. The Great American Ballpark is a tough home stadium for fly ball pitchers like Pivetta.

The issue with Pivetta’s qualifying offer is that not only does it make teams more wary of signing him in general, but it also makes him less appealing on a short-term deal. Basically, teams aren’t going to want to give up their draft pick and whatever salary they agree to pay for a player who is only going to be around for one season. Understanding this, it seems possible that he still could get the three-year, $45 million median prediction (on the Total Spending Projection page), especially if there truly are double-digit teams interested in his services.

Righty-Hitting Outfielder Signings

Twins Sign Harrison Bader for One Year, $6.25 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Twins

The most glaring need for the Twins (besides money falling from the sky) was to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to balance out lefty bats Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, and they got their man in Bader. The defensive stalwart was actually worse against lefties last year (70 wRC+ compared to 93 against righties), but historically he’s leaned the other direction (109 wRC+ against southpaws for his career, 84 against righties).

Bader’s true calling is his aforementioned strong defense; while he hasn’t played a position other than center since 2018, the thought of him playing next to Byron Buxton late in games to help lock down wins is quite appealing. He can also get Buxton off his feet up the middle without the Twins having to give up much, if anything, on defense. The Twins could hypothetically start Buxton in center against righties with another player DHing, and have Buxton DH against lefties with Bader in center.

Diamondbacks Sign Randal Grichuk for One Year, $5 Million

• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Diamondbacks

Despite losing Christian Walker to the Astros, Joc Pederson to the Rangers, and Josh Bell to the Nationals, baseball’s highest-scoring offense in 2024 looks primed to be right around the top of the list again in 2025. Instead of platooning with Pederson at DH, Grichuk should platoon with Pavin Smith, who had a mini-breakout in 158 plate appearances last year.

All nine of Arizona’s starting spots look locked in unless there’s a trade, so the Diamondbacks are just left to decide on their backup catcher — either Jose Herrera, René Pinto, or Adrian Del Castillo — and their two other bench players. Six infielders — Garrett Hampson, Ildemaro Vargas, Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, Tim Tawa, and Grae Kessinger — are fighting for one spot, and three outfielders — Alek Thomas, Jorge Barrosa, and Cristian Pache — are competing for the other.

Pirates Sign Tommy Pham for One Year, $4.025 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Pirates

Pham gives the Pirates another bat, along with veteran free agents Andrew McCutchen, who signed what’s become his annual one-year, $5 million contract with Pittsburgh, and Adam Frazier, as well as trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz. That said, Pham is not exactly the impact bat the Pirates needed to provide run support for a rotation fronted by one of the best pitchers in baseball. At this point I don’t think an impact bat is walking through that door, so Pirates fans will have to settle for watching Pham platoon in right field with Joshua Palacios, or perhaps another lower-tier addition like Alex Verdugo, in whom they’ve expressed interest.

Orioles Sign Ramón Laureano for One Year, $4 Million

• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

Saying the Orioles’ outfield is jam-packed would be an understatement. Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be the starters against righties, with Laureano likely to fill a platoon role against lefty pitching. Ryan O’Hearn ought to be the starting DH against righties, which leaves just one spot on the bench for Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Carlson, and Daz Cameron, who’s out of options.

The lefty-swinging Kjerstad certainly merits a longer look coming off a 116 wRC+ in 114 plate appearances (despite not pulling a single fly ball to right field!), but a trade might be necessary to open up regular playing time for him. If Baltimore decides to move someone, O’Hearn or first baseman Ryan Mountcastle seem like the most obvious candidates.

Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams

The four signings above all happened in a 48-hour span and very quickly and dramatically shortened the list of available righty hitting outfielders who are at least capable of playing center field. Enrique Hernández is the best remaining player to fit that criteria, and he comes with the added ability to play all around the infield, too. Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Pillar can all play up the middle with varying levels of competence, and Mark Canha is a nice bat but hasn’t played any center field in the last two seasons. The trade market has Luis Robert Jr. as its jewel.

Effect of Their Signings on Similar Players

All of the free agent outfielders mentioned above will likely end up signing for less than what Bader earned. It’s possible that Canha and Hernández get contracts that fall somewhere in the range that Pham, Grichuk and Laureano received, but Taylor and Pillar might to have to settle for minor league deals.

Infielder Signings

Angels Sign Yoán Moncada for One Year, $5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Angels

If there aren’t any injuries, the Angels probably have all 13 position player spots locked up, though it’s worth noting that Zach Neto’s offseason shoulder surgery could cause him to miss the start of the season. In that case Kevin Newman would play short.

Moncada has played third base exclusively since 2019, so at least at the beginning of the season, the Halos have two starting-caliber third basemen. That said, both Moncada and Anthony Rendon have spent considerable time on the injured list in recent years, so having depth at the position isn’t a bad thing. As things stand, RosterResource projects Rendon to be the starting third baseman and Moncada to platoon against righties at DH, with offseason acquisition Jorge Soler playing right field. In this case, Jo Adell would play right field against lefties, with Soler sliding to DH. I still expect Soler to end up at DH more often than not, just because he really shouldn’t play the field much. Rendon could also platoon with Moncada at third or the lefty-hitting Nolan Schanuel at first, a position he’s never played as a professional, as a way for the Angels to give Adell regular playing time in right field. Then again, the Angels might not have this lineup crunch for long. Rendon has been hurt for more than half of every season since 2021.

Effect on Other Teams

I suppose the Angels could open up some playing time by trading one of their trio of returning non-Mike Trout outfielders, either Adell, Taylor Ward, or Mickey Moniak. But I don’t think that’s going to happen here, at least not in response to the Moncada signing. Really, the Angels brought in Moncada as insurance for Rendon. Playing time has a way of sorting itself out. Other teams will have to look elsewhere for an outfielder, and if they want a third baseman not named Bregman, their free agent options are limited to Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Luis Urías, and Miguel Sanó.

Effect on Similar Players

Coming off his resurgent (albeit BABIP-fueled) season with the Mets, Iglesias likely has his sights set on well more than $5 million. We haven’t heard much about his market. I think $5 million sounds about right — if not a little low — for DeJong, who popped 24 homers with a 95 wRC+ last season, both his best marks since 2019. I’d be surprised if Urías was able to find a major league deal, and even more surprised if Sanó did.

Lefty Relief Pitcher Signings

Twins Sign Danny Coulombe for One Year, $3 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Twins

Minnesota’s best-in-baseball bullpen projection just got a little bit better with the return of Coulombe, who pitched for the team from 2020-22 before being traded to Baltimore.

The lefty with three distinct fastballs and two distinct breaking balls will give the Twins a different look alongside hard throwing righties Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Jorge Alcala. Funky righty Michael Tonkin (who’s out of options) and Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano could round out the bullpen so the Twins can maximize their 40-man depth without exposing anyone to waivers, but Ronny Henriquez (also out of options), Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Louie Varland will be in the thick of the competition as well.

Yankees Sign Tim Hill for One Year, $2.85 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Yankees

The Yankees had exactly zero lefty relievers on their 40-man roster prior to re-signing Hill, so while he won’t light up the radar gun or strike many hitters out, he’ll play a key role for New York once again. This overall scarcity of left-handed pitchers though doesn’t mean the Yankees will struggle against lefty batters in the later innings. New closer Devin Williams neutralizes lefties with his signature airbender changeup, and setup man Luke Weaver also relies on a changeup to retire lefties. Meanwhile, Fernando Cruz, whom the Yankees acquired from the Reds, and Mark Leiter Jr. throw splitters to keep lefties at bay.

The Yankees currently have six starting pitchers for their big league roster, though Marcus Stroman could end up in the bullpen so long as he doesn’t get traded. Assuming he stays, there’ll be seven spots for traditional relievers, and a minimum of five are accounted for by Williams, Weaver, Cruz, Hill, and Leiter. That leaves two openings for the likes of Ian Hamilton, JT Brubaker, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Roansy Contreras, Yerry De Los Santos, and Yoendrys Gómez. Brubaker, Contreras, and Gómez are out of options. Jonathan Loáisiga, currently recovering from elbow surgery, should be able to help out by midseason.

Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams

The free agent pool has lost two intriguing lefty relievers, but there are still southpaws aplenty. Scott Alexander posted the lowest ERA (2.56) and highest grounder rate (60.0%) last year of any remaining free agent reliever with at least 25 innings of work; Ryan Yarbrough led all major league relievers with 98 2/3 innings; Jalen Beeks retooled his pitch mix to somewhat rebound from a bad 2023; and Andrew Chafin has a long track record of being somewhere between serviceable and dominant. There’s also Drew Smyly, Will Smith, Brooks Raley (who hopes to be back from Tommy John surgery in July), and others.

Effect of the Their Signings on Similar Players

The $1.5–$3 million range that Hill and Coulombe — as well as earlier signees Tim Mayza, Justin Wilson, and Hoby Milner — received feels about right for all but one of the lefties named above. Raley will likely get a back-loaded two-year contract coming off his injury rehab.

Trades

Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier, Cash (amount not yet reported) from Dodgers for PTBNL or Cash

• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Dodgers Roster Projection
• Updated Dodgers Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

Kyle Tucker will get all the headlines, but the Cubs have done a lot of work revamping their bullpen this offseason, too. Brasier, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan are all newcomers; of those four, only Morgan can be optioned. Expect the other three to be in the Opening Day bullpen, along with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and — if he’s not in the rotation — fellow newcomer Colin Rea. There’ll be at most three more spots up for grabs and a lot of arms battling for them, including Morgan, Julian Merryweather, Keegan Thompson, Nate Pearson, and Luke Little, among others.

Where the Dodgers Go From Here

There’s nothing else for the Dodgers to do here, as Brasier had been DFA’d.

Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded of January, friends! The offseason continues apace, even as three qualifying-offer-tagged free agents are without a team and Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal as the calendar flips to February. Let’s get to it.

Eight-Figure Free Agent Signings

Rays Sign Ha-Seong Kim for Two Years, $29 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rays

Right now, this has no effect. Kim will be out until May — at best — as he recovers from the shoulder surgery he had at the end of last season. Until then, Taylor Walls and José Caballero will cover shortstop, as they did last year. Once Kim is healthy, there might not be room on the roster for both Walls and Caballero since there are some redundancies between the two, though Caballero could get some time in the outfield to give manager Kevin Cash some more options.

Effect on Other Teams

Even if he won’t be ready for Opening Day, Kim was something that no remaining free agent is: unequivocally a starting-caliber shortstop. Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias are nice pieces who should play plenty for whichever teams sign them, but they’re not guys you’d ideally want to give four or five plate appearances every single game. Unless the Twins suddenly make Carlos Correa available or the Blue Jays sell (very) low on Bo Bichette, the trade market doesn’t have obvious answers for shortstop-needy teams either.

Effect on Similar Players

Kim was in a class of his own because of his injury, so his contract has little impact on any remaining free agents.

Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer for One Year, $15.5 Million

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Blue Jays

If nothing else, Toronto’s rotation is rich with experience. Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt have combined for over 44 years of service time, with newbie Bowden Francis and his mere year of service likely to round out the starting five. Scherzer’s signing probably bumps Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen, giving the Blue Jays six capable starters at the major league level, with Alek Manoah due back sometime down the stretch.

That depth is important to have for any team, especially so for the Jays since they really don’t have much in the upper minors. For that reason, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to add another starter to the mix; they’ve expressed interest in Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, the two best starters available.

Effect on Other Teams

The Blue Jays were reported as the favorites for Scherzer the day before he signed, so this pairing shouldn’t come as a surprise for the other clubs who were in the mix. And it shouldn’t be all that disappointing either. Scherzer turns 41 at the end of July and is no longer the coveted ace he was for the majority of his career; he’s a quality veteran starter, but nothing more. To be clear, teams need quality veteran starters, but there are plenty of those still available, such as Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Kyle Hart, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, and Cal Quantrill.

Effect on Similar Players

AARP discounts apparently don’t apply to Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and Alex Cobb, all of whom signed for at least $14 million on one-year deals. Quintana, Gibson, and Lynn are all entering their age-36 seasons or beyond, and $14 million should be a reasonable target for all of them, especially with Cobb getting his payday coming off just 22 MLB innings (including the postseason).

Reliever Roundup

Royals Sign Carlos Estévez for Two Years, $22.2 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Royals

Estévez is certainly being paid closer money, and I’d guess that’s where he’ll slot in the Kansas City bullpen even if Lucas Erceg has better stuff and actually pitched better than Estévez down the stretch last season, after both pitchers were traded ahead of the deadline. Regardless of how exactly the games are finished, Estévez gives the Royals another high-octane reliever to go along with Erceg and Hunter Harvey. Side-arming righty John Schreiber will also have a spot, as should curveballing lefty Sam Long.

The Royals have a deep starting staff, so it’s possible that they’ll go with a six-man rotation to start the season; that would leave just two bullpen spots open for the likes of Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton (who’s on a guaranteed contract but wasn’t good last year), Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, and the out-of-options Carlos Hernández, among others.

Dodgers Sign Kirby Yates for One Year, $13 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

If you’re a fantasy player, your brain is probably spinning trying to figure out how Dave Roberts will dole out saves between Yates, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips. If you’re Roberts himself, you’re thrilled with the embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. This unit is so deep that, so long as everyone is healthy, there really aren’t any spots up for grabs to start the season; because Shohei Ohtani won’t be ready to pitch by then, the Dodgers can carry only 13 pitchers, with six of those slots reserved for starters. That leaves seven spots for the aforementioned five relief arms, plus Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. Indeed, this roster crunch is already on display: To make room for Yates on the 40-man, the Dodgers designated Ryan Brasier for assignment.

Ben Clemens included Yates in his write-up of the Tanner Scott deal last week, when Yates to the Dodgers was first reported. You can read that piece here.

Tigers Sign Tommy Kahnle for One Year, $7.75 Million

• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Michael Baumann’s Analysis of Kahnle’s Postseason Changeup-Spamming
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

Kahnle adds a veteran face to a ragtag Tigers bullpen that didn’t have a set closer for much of last year and probably won’t again. Like lefty Tyler Holton, Kahnle can get righties and lefties out thanks to his excellent changeup, and Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, and Will Vest should all factor into the late-inning mix as well. That leaves three spots and a host of relievers competing to fill them, including Sean Guenther and Brant Hurter, the unsung heroes of last year’s playoff run, Kenta Maeda, who could be boxed out of the rotation, and former closer Alex Lange.

Mets Sign Ryne Stanek for One Year, $4.5 Million

• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

Stanek’s re-signing gums up the works for a Mets bullpen that already doesn’t have a lot of flexibility. Edwin Díaz, A.J. Minter, José Buttó, and Stanek are locks to make the team, as is Griffin Canning if he’s not in the rotation. Assuming a six-man rotation is used to limit the innings of Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes, there could be just two bullpen spots left for a host of arms, including last year’s breakouts, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez, and three out-of-options relievers (Sean Reid-Foley, Dylan Covey, and Danny Young). Something will have to give, whether it’s a trade or two or simply waiting to see how spring training plays out and what injuries pop up.

Which Relievers Are Left?

Relief-needy teams are rapidly running lower on options, but there are still enough available relievers who should get major league deals to fill an entire bullpen or two. Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, and Kyle Finnegan could all sign on to be closers; righties Luis García, Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, Phil Maton, Joe Kelly, and Adam Ottavino are key middle-inning or setup options; and lefties Scott Alexander, Tim Hill, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, and Jalen Beeks have all shown they can get righties out, too. Rehabbing arms Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Yency Almonte, Trevor Gott, Daniel Bard, and Keynan Middleton could all be factors later on in the season.

Seven-Figure Free Agent Signings

Mariners Sign Jorge Polanco for One Year, $7.75 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mariners

While the Mariners certainly could’ve used more impactful offensive moves than just bringing Polanco back and adding Donovan Solano, their budget of around $15 million simply wasn’t going to allow for that.

There might be a little bit of room to squeeze another bat onto the roster without clearing someone else’s salary, but for now the infield looks more or less set. Polanco will start at third (not second, where he played last year), with J.P. Crawford at short, a combo of Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, and Solano at second, and the natural platoon pairing of Luke Raley and Solano at first.

Effect on Other Teams

The Astros were reportedly in on Polanco all offseason, and planned to move Jose Altuve to left field if they’d added him, which is also the plan if they bring Alex Bregman back to H-Town. All attention now turns back to Bregman and the Astros. The Astros want Bregman back, and there’s no reason to believe Bregman doesn’t want to be back. But at least from the outside, neither side seems any closer to budging.

Effect on Similar Players

The market for bounce-back infielders isn’t completely picked clean just yet. Yoán Moncada and Anthony Rizzo both had more injury-riddled seasons than Polanco, and Rizzo has struggled to produce ever since his concussion in late May of 2023. It stands to reason, then, that both will sign for less than Polanco, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising at this juncture if either or both of them have to settle for minor league deals.

Reds Sign Austin Hays for One Year, $5 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Reds

Looking for a bounce back of his own, Hays is a nice fit for the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, but what this signing doesn’t do is settle the jumbled mess that is the Reds’ roster. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Hays was seeking “more regular” playing time after a tough season in a platoon role for the Orioles and Phillies that led to his non-tender. So it stands to reason that Hays will play against every lefty and plenty of righties. Hays is an outfielder who can play first base, but this team has so many hitters that it’s hard to tell where exactly he — and many of the others — will play.

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz, catcher Tyler Stephenson, and center fielder TJ Friedl are locked into regular playing time at a single position, but everyone else might be bouncing around. Hays, Jake Fraley, and the out-of-options Stuart Fairchild can play all three outfield positions; Spencer Steer can play all four corners as well as second base; Matt McLain put up 3.1 WAR as a middle infielder in 2023, but he missed all last season with a torn labrum and then got some outfield time in the Arizona Fall League last fall when he was finally healthy enough to return to the field; and Gavin Lux’s exact position is still to be determined. Oh, and there’s also Jeimer Candelario, who plays both corner infield spots, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and utilityman Santiago Espinal. New manager Terry Francona will have quite the evaluation on his hands come spring training.

Effect on Other Teams

Hays would’ve made sense for a lot of teams as a relatively young (he’ll be in his age-29 season) former All-Star, but not every team could have offered the playing time the Reds apparently did, not to mention the home ballpark. Teams looking for a lefty-mashing outfielder who can still hold his own against righties could turn to Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha. Teams could also target glove-first righty hitters such as Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor.

Effect on Similar Players

Grichuk had a far better season than Hays, so it stands to reason that he ought to do better than $5 million, even though he’s four years older and will probably mostly serve as the short side of a platoon. That’s because he’s essentially mastered that role; over the last four seasons, Grichuk has a 137 wRC+ against lefties. The Red Sox, Pirates, and Giants have all expressed interest, as shown in blue on the Matrix. Canha, a high-floor, low-ceiling corner outfielder and first baseman, and Bader should get around the $5 million salary that Hays earned, and Taylor may have to settle for a minor league deal after failing to make it through 2024 on the Pirates’ roster.

Padres Sign Elias Díaz for One Year, $3.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Padres

Díaz’s coming back into the fold should settle the Padres’ catching situation, even if he’s the only catcher assured of a spot. Díaz could be the starter, backup, or somewhere in between depending on who else makes the team. The three others in the mix are the former top prospect Luis Campusano, who was solid in a part-time role in 2023 before struggling on both sides of the ball last season, Brett Sullivan, who is out of options, and veteran Martín Maldonado, who is in camp on a minor league deal. Campusano and Sullivan are both on the 40-man roster.

Effect on Other Teams

The market for catchers got going pretty early; Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Carson Kelly, Gary Sánchez, Austin Hedges, and Jacob Stallings were all signed by December 13. Díaz is the first since then to sign a major league deal. The best catchers still available, Yasmani Grandal and James McCann, could still conceivably get big league contracts, while Luke Maile and Yan Gomes, who were both well below replacement level last year, will probably have to settle for minor league deals.

Effect on Similar Players

That Díaz was released by the Rockies midseason and still earned $3.5 million bodes well for Grandal, who just put together a sneaky 1.4-WAR season. He could perhaps double the $2.5 million he signed with the Pirates last year, when he was coming off a two-season span in which he combined for -0.5 WAR.

Orioles Sign Dylan Carlson for One Year, $975,000

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

Carlson’s deal is fully guaranteed but at a very modest price. In fact, this is now the cheapest free agent contract signed this offseason. (Congrats to Bryse Wilson for moving up to second cheapest!) That, combined with the fact that he can be optioned to the minors, means that Carlson is not assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster despite his major league contract.

As it stands, Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be Baltimore’s starting outfield, and DH/1B Ryan O’Hearn might get a little bit of playing time in the outfield corners as well. That leaves one or two reserve spots for Heston Kjerstad, the out-of-options Daz Cameron, and Carlson. Carlson’s switch-hitting and ability to play center field might give him an edge, but Cameron can play center as well. Spring training could be the deciding factor here. Plus, Carlson is coming off three straight years of what Davy Andrews in his write-up called “a spiral of injury and underperformance.” It’s possible that if Carlson, who is still only 26, is fully healthy for the first time since he finished third in the 2021 Rookie of the Year voting, he could be an excellent buy-low addition for the O’s. The most likely scenario appears to be that he starts the season in Triple-A and becomes a league-average depth piece in the outfield. There’s value in that, but it’s a far cry from what was expected of him during his days as a top prospect in the Cardinals system.

Effect on Other Teams

There was no guarantee that Carlson would get a major league deal after he put up an abysmal -1.0 WAR last season, and the other 29 teams still have plenty of internal and/or external options for reserve outfielders. This doesn’t have much if any impact outside of Baltimore.

Effect on Similar Players

Bench bats are a dime a dozen, but switch-hitters aren’t. Sam Haggerty and Robbie Grossman are still looking for jobs, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 and will likely have to settle for minor league deals.

Trades

Cubs Acquire Ryan Pressly, $5.5 Million from the Astros

• Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Astros Roster Projection
• Updated Astros Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

Pressly will be the Cubs’ first big-name closer since David Robertson was traded away in 2022, but his acquisition doesn’t necessarily mean they are out of the relief-pitching market. As shown on the Matrix in blue, they’ve expressed interest in a host of free agent arms, including old friend Robertson.

As things stand, Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, and Caleb Thielbar should all have set roles, leaving two bullpen spots still up for grabs if the Cubs decide to use a six-man rotation because of their glut of starting options. Some of those depth starters could also end up in the bullpen, though they wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cubs from signing multiple relievers if the right deal came about.

Where the Astros Go From Here

It’s natural for one’s brain to immediately react to the Astros’ dumping $8.5 million of Pressly’s salary as providing a lane for an Bregman reunion, but the timing of the trade might be more coincidence than prerequisite. As Chandler Rome reported, Houston had been trying to move Pressly for most of the offseason.

Pressly’s departure makes the bullpen an obvious area for the Astros to upgrade, though since the impetus of this trade was to save money, any additions the Astros make there would be more modest in nature. The emergences of Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Kaleb Ort could help make up for the loss of Pressly.

Reds Acquire Taylor Rogers, $6 Million from the Giants

• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Reds Roster Projection
• Updated Reds Payroll Projection
• Updated Giants Roster Projection
• Updated Giants Payroll Projection

Where the Reds Go From Here

We haven’t yet heard from the Reds’ front office since the trade, but it wouldn’t be surprising to hear that they feel pretty good about their bullpen going into the season. Alexis Díaz, Rogers, Emilio Pagán, Tony Santillan, and Brent Suter will take up five of the eight spots, and Sam Moll should have the leg up for the sixth. After those guys, there’s a panoply of options for the two remaining slots: hard-throwing hurlers Yosver Zulueta and Graham Ashcraft; innings-eaters Carson Spiers, Casey Legumina, Connor Phillips, and Lyon Richardson; and veteran non-roster invitees Bryan Shaw, Alex Young, and Ian Gibaut.

Where the Giants Go From Here

While the Giants were able to clear half of Rogers’ $12 million salary off the books, they’re ostensibly not going to reinvest that money into the bullpen or even another part of the roster. That, however, could just be posturing by president of baseball operations Buster Posey to maintain leverage in free agent talks; as mentioned in the relief pitching bonanza above, there are plenty of lefty arms looking for jobs, and the Giants could sign one and still run a lower payroll than they would’ve had with Rogers. Right now, Erik Miller is the only southpaw projected to be in the San Francisco bullpen.

Rumors of the Week

• The Padres offseason has been very quiet thus far — Díaz is the only free agent they’ve signed to a major league deal — but things could pick up a bit soon. According to Rosenthal, trades of either Dylan Cease or Michael King “remain in play” as the calendar hits February.

The Padres are trying to thread the needle of improving their rotation while also cutting payroll, which is why they desperately wanted to sign the cost-controlled Roki Sasaki. But now that Sasaki is a Dodger, trading away a starter might be the best way to add to their rotation. That sounds contradictory, but let me explain. The Padres could trade Cease and his $13.75 million salary or King, who on Friday agreed to a $4 million deal for 2025 that includes a $3.75 million buyout on a mutual option for 2026, and end up with two starters from trading one away: one coming back in the trade, and one signed with the cost savings. King’s new contract structure makes 2025 savings more negligible than if the entire $7.75 million applied to 2025, but that doesn’t mean the Padres wouldn’t trade him if the right offer came around.

For example (and these are entirely speculative teams and names), the Padres could trade one of their starters to the Orioles, Cubs, or Mets, with Dean Kremer, Javier Assad, or Tylor Megill coming back to San Diego in the trade. Then, with the savings, the Padres could sign a cheaper arm like Hart, Quintana, Gibson, or Lynn, among others. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that San Diego could “consider” Flaherty or Pivetta if it sends a starter packing, though as things stand, it seems like the Padres would have a difficult time fitting either of those guys into their budget.

• Speaking of Lynn, he might not even sign as a starter! Rosenthal dispatches that some teams are interested in the big righty as a late-inning reliever, and the veteran seems plenty open to the idea as a late-career pivot. His fastball-heavy approach could work even better when facing only a few hitters, and maybe he gains some velocity back after averaging 92.3 mph with his heater last season, his slowest since 2017. We currently project six bullpens at under 2 WAR (for comparison, the Twins lead the majors with a 5.2-WAR projection): the Angels, Marlins, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox.

I began last week’s Matrix Reloaded with a note about the slow pace of the offseason in January, and that was still the case when the column was published at 3:35 p.m. ET. So, of course, less than three hours after that went live, Roki Sasaki announced on Instagram that he’d signed with the Dodgers. His signing kicked the market into gear, making these past seven days far more eventful than what we’d experienced in recent weeks.

For my neurotic Offseason Matrices work, that means a lot fewer blank cells and a lot more maroon cells, indicating a lack of fit due to a positional logjam. The game of musical chairs continues and free agents remain available to sign, but many of the teams that might’ve been interested earlier in the offseason have since filled their openings. That doesn’t necessarily mean that all of these players will sign for less than what they were expected to when the offseason began — though, as Ben Clemens demonstrated earlier this week, many of them will — but it does mean their options are limited. Without further ado, let’s get to the transactions that happened and what we can glean about the ones that may still be to come. Read the rest of this entry »

For the most part, I am the voice of reason whenever my friends complain about slow offseasons, reassuring them with statements like, “Be patient,” “Stuff will happen,” “The dam will break.” Over the last week, though, I’ve become completely Jokerfied. After a slow seven days, I am now fully in the camp of believing that nothing happens, nothing ever will happen again, and spring training will open in a month with plenty of unsigned free agents. Anyway, now that that’s all out of my system and I can be a little more rational — a month is still a long time, the dam can break at any moment, etc. — it’s time to get into the updates with the Matrix. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Friday, everyone! I have good news, mostly for my editor: This will be shorter than the massively long two-week update from last Friday. The bad news, however, is that Justin Verlander makes for a less compelling featured photo than Corbin Burnes, so I appreciate that you clicked on this article anyway. Let’s fill you in on what’s new with the Matrix. Read the rest of this entry »

As John Oliver would say after pounding his desk on Last Week Tonight while the studio audience claps: “Welcome, welcome, welcome! It has been a busy week.” Or two weeks, if we’re being exact. Anyway, happy 2025 everyone! I hope you all had a lovely holiday season; I certainly did. The Offseason Matrices document has continued to whir as we enter the New Year. Let’s get started. Read the rest of this entry »

Although I was perhaps foolish to think that this past week would serve as something of an extension of the Winter Meetings, with a ton more dominoes falling, there was still a nice chunk of roster moves that rolled in. For most of this week, the significant updates to the Offseason Matrices document came on the Trades/Claims page, with the free agent moves being more complementary in nature. That is, until Friday afternoon, when Christian Walker and the Houston Astros reportedly agreed to a three-year deal. We’ll start with that move. Then, we’ll work our way through the other signings, move onto the week’s two major trades, and close with a two of the latest rumors.

Free Agent Signings

Astros Sign Christian Walker for Three Years, $60 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Astros

Walker gives the Astros their second new righty power bat, joining corner infielder Isaac Paredes, whom they acquired from the Cubs in exchange for Kyle Tucker. Walker will man first base, with Paredes staying at third base instead of sliding over to first, which would have happened if Houston had re-signed Alex Bregman or traded for Nolan Arenado. Walker’s signing almost definitely means that Bregman will not be returning to the Astros. If they add another starting-caliber position player, it will likely be an outfielder, and probably a lefty-hitting one.

More details of the signing are still to come. Michael Baumann will cover all that later in a more detailed write-up of the signing.

Effect on Other Teams

The Yankees were the other team most strongly connected to Walker, but they’re not without options at first base. They recently traded for Cody Bellinger (more on that move below), and while ideally he’d be their starting center fielder, he is also a capable first baseman. If they keep Bellinger in the outfield, they could sign Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, or Paul Goldschmidt. Walker is an excellent player, but he’s far from the only first baseman available for teams looking to upgrade at the position.

Effect on Similar Players

Just because Walker matched his median contract prediction in both years and dollars, that doesn’t mean Alonso will get his median prediction of six years and $135 million. That said, Walker’s deal shows that there is a solid market for slugging first basemen. Alonso is four years younger than Walker and hits for more power, so he’ll almost certainly sign a larger deal than Walker. The question is how much money and for how many years teams are willing to commit to the 30-year-old Alonso, whose value all but exclusively comes from his bat. With Walker off the board, Alonso’s market could come into greater focus in the coming days and weeks.

Red Sox Sign Patrick Sandoval for Two Years, $18.25 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Red Sox

The immediate effect on the Red Sox is basically nil. Sandoval underwent Tommy John surgery in late June, making a second-half return the best-case scenario for him. Once he’s back — which could be in 2026 — he’ll join Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito, who also is currently rehabbing from elbow surgery, in Boston’s rotation mix. He’s a good depth add to an organization that’s got some other depth arms — Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester — but is short on impact high-level prospects.

Effect on Other Teams

Because of Sandoval’s delayed impact, there was never going to be much of an onus on teams who didn’t sign him to do something in response. He was always going to be a long-term play.

Effect on Similar Players

Sandoval’s sizable two-year rehab contract is good news for other starters in a similar boat. That group includes John Means, Marco Gonzales, Wade Miley, and José Urquidy. While Sandoval is younger than all of those guys, and therefore should beat the deals they eventually sign, Means and Urquidy are plausible to earn $10 million or more on two-year contracts.

Orioles Sign Tomoyuki Sugano for One Year, $13 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

The Orioles shouldn’t — and probably won’t — abandon their quest for a top-end starter just because they added the 35-year-old Sugano, even if his excellent command makes him a strong upside play despite his age. Sugano will be guaranteed a rotation spot along with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and in all likelihood, Dean Kremer, but there’s still room for another arm to front the quintet.

A return of Corbin Burnes can’t be ruled out until he actually signs elsewhere, but the Giants and Blue Jays are viewed as front-runners for his services. A reunion with Jack Flaherty, who was traded to Baltimore in mid-2023 before his bounce-back 2024 season with the Tigers and Dodgers, is another option the team could be considering. Or, the Orioles could go the trade route and call the Padres about Dylan Cease or the Mariners about one of their starters.

Effect on Other Teams

Sugano’s upside and reasonable price tag likely earned him widespread interest, and other older free agent starters who will sign one-year deals just don’t have the track record that Sugano had in Japan. Teams will probably have to target lesser-caliber pitchers if they’re looking for rental starters, then.

Effect on Similar Players

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have Hall of Fame pedigrees, so $13 million or more seems doable for them. But starters lower down the list — like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Martín Pérez — will probably be limited to around $10 million.

Cubs Sign Carson Kelly for Two Years, $11.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

Kelly takes the Cubs out of the market for another catcher; he’ll pair with Miguel Amaya in what should be a pretty even timeshare behind the plate. They’re both just keeping the seat warm for top prospect Moises Ballesteros.

Effect on Other Teams

Kelly was the last catcher available with a chance to sign a multi-year deal, so any other moves for free-agent catchers are going to be more temporary in nature. Yasmani Grandal, James McCann, and Elias Díaz are still on the market.

Effect on Similar Players

As mentioned above, there really aren’t any similar players left on the market. Kelly’s signing was effected by the similar catchers who signed two-year deals before him: Kyle Higashioka ($13.5 million) and Travis d’Arnaud ($12 million).

Phillies Sign Max Kepler for One Year, $10 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Phillies

Barring a salary dump of Nick Castellanos, the Kepler signing may well finalize the Phillies’ outfield mix. Castellanos should be in the lineup just about every day, with left-handed hitters Kepler and Brandon Marsh playing mostly against righty pitchers, and Johan Rojas and Weston Wilson serving as their short-side platoon partners against left-handers.

Effect on Other Teams

There weren’t other teams in on Kepler, at least not publicly, so I don’t anticipate immediate cascading effects here. That said, with Kepler and Michael Conforto both off the board, the lefty outfielder market may start to percolate.

Effect on Similar Players

And Kepler gives those lefty outfielders another data point, along with Conforto’s $17 million price tag from the Dodgers. Lefties coming off rough years (as Kepler was) include Alex Verdugo and Jason Heyward. Meanwhile, Jesse Winker should be aiming higher than the $10 million Kepler got, considering he’s coming off a better season than the one Kepler had.

Nationals Sign Michael Soroka for One Year, $9 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Soroka will reportedly return to the rotation for the Nationals, despite finishing the season on a dominant stretch out of the White Sox bullpen. MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin are sure to share the rotation with Soroka, with the last two spots currently coming down to a mix including (but not limited to) DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, Cade Cavalli, Joan Adon, and Jackson Rutledge. The club may be content with that mix for now.

Effect on Other Teams

Soroka had widespread interest thanks to his excellent start to his career way back in 2019, his age (27), and his brilliance to finish the 2024 season. There aren’t exactly similar alternatives left on the market, though there are plenty of starters who will sign for right around that $9 million figure.

Effect on Similar Players

Seeing a team pay $9 million for a starter who was banished to the bullpen could be good news for other free agents who met that fate at the end of the season. However, as mentioned, those available arms don’t have the upside or traits that could translate to starting. Jakob Junis, Joe Ross, and Colin Rea are some of the pitchers who could be targeted as starters despite relieving to end the year, but none of the them brings the potential that Soroka does.

Mets Sign Griffin Canning for One Year, $4.25 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

Canning adds to a strong stable of pitching depth for the Mets, though it’s unclear as of now if he’ll end up in the rotation or bullpen. Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes are expected to make up the first four spots, leaving one or two for Canning, Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, José Buttó, and perhaps prospects Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat.

Effect on Other Teams

There weren’t other teams with reported interest in Canning, so as far as we know, teams won’t be pivoting en masse now that Canning is off the market.

Effect on Similar Players

Canning got a pretty strong deal after the Braves non-tendered him; his arbitration projection was $5.4 million, per MLBTradeRumors, so getting just $1.15 million less than that isn’t too shabby. That’s good news for Cal Quantrill, the other prominent non-tendered starter. Quantrill’s arbitration projection was $9 million; considering he’s coming off a better season than Canning, he should be able to sign for something in the $5-6 million range.

White Sox Sign Bryse Wilson for One Year, $1.05 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the White Sox

With a wide-open rotation competition after the Garrett Crochet trade, Wilson represents a new entrant. If he doesn’t win a spot there, he’ll head to the bullpen, where he’s pitched better in his career anyway.

Effect on Other Teams

Not much here. Wilson isn’t the type of player who drives the rumor mill, and while it’s fair to assume other teams were looking at him, there are plenty of other similar pitchers available.

Effect on Similar Players

Wilson is one of many pitchers who’ll sign small contracts in the coming weeks and months. This doesn’t change that.

Athletics Sign Gio Urshela for One Year ($TBA)

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Athletics

Third base had been the most glaring positional need for the A’s, but they appear to have filled that hole with Urshela in the fold. The starting nine appears to be just about set, though they could always add some depth pieces.

Effect on Other Teams

The third base market was always thin beyond Alex Bregman, and it just got thinner. If you’re in need of a third baseman and don’t want to trade for one or pay for Bregman, Yoán Moncada, Josh Rojas, and Paul DeJong are just about your only choices left.

Effect on Similar Players

Urshela’s money hasn’t yet been reported, but once it is, that’ll help inform the earning potential for the above mentioned third basemen, especially because Urshela had a pretty weak season and doesn’t have much upside left at his age.

Rangers Sign Hoby Milner for One Year ($TBA)

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

The Rangers’ biggest need entering the offseason was relief pitching, and Milner (plus Jacob Webb) don’t do a whole lot to help plug the leaks. Texas still needs a closer, whether that comes via a reunion with Kirby Yates or David Robertson, or a more expensive contract for Tanner Scott or Carlos Estévez.

Effect on Other Teams

Lefty relievers are always in strong supply in the offseason, but Milner offered an arm angle that’s different from most other lefties. Side-winder Tim Hill and soft-tossing Ryan Yarbrough are still available.

Effect on Similar Players

Milner’s contract could be something of a measuring stick for Hill and Yarbrough, though because Milner was non-tendered, he’s not in quite the same situation as the other two, who were free agents at the start of the offseason. Non-tenders tend to have their earnings more or less capped at what they would’ve made in arbitration, which for Milner would have been around $2.7 million.

Trades

Yankees Acquire Cody Bellinger From Cubs

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Trade
• Updated Yankees Roster Projection
• Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection

Where the Yankees Go From Here

You can’t replace Juan Soto, but in acquiring Bellinger, the Yankees are off to a decent start as they try to backfill the gaping hole in their lineup. Bellinger could end up playing either center field or first base for the Yankees, who entered this offseason needing to upgrade at both positions. (Yes, Aaron Judge was the best center fielder in baseball last year, but he’s better off playing a corner spot.) Bellinger’s ability to play both positions well allows the Yankees to cast a wider net looking for improvements between now and the start of the season. That’s exactly what they’re doing — look at all the players on the Matrix they’ve expressed interest in, marked in blue.

Where the Cubs Go From Here

A Bellinger trade looked like a fait accompli as soon as the Tucker trade went through, and having most of Bellinger’s money off the books will allow the Cubs to reinvest that cash into their bigger need: pitching. They could use multiple upgrades in their bullpen, and they could do that also by adding a starter, which would push Javier Assad into a relief role. With Bellinger gone, the Cubs could also use some bench depth, likely someone capable of playing third base who’ll compete with and push Matt Shaw for the job out of spring training.

Athletics Acquire Jeffrey Springs From Rays

• Eric Longenhagen’s Write-Up of the Trade
• Updated Athletics Roster Projection
• Updated Athletics Payroll Projection
• Updated Rays Roster Projection
• Updated Rays Payroll Projection

Where the Athletics Go From Here

The A’s rotation is in better shape than it was at the end of the season, with Springs and Luis Severino joining the fold, but their starting staff still lacks depth. They’ll probably keep looking to add starters, though their search will probably be limited to those in the market for cheap, short-term contracts.

Where the Rays Go From Here

The Rays were always going to deal from their surplus of starters, and Springs always made the most sense since he’s making real money by Tampa Bay’s standards. Getting a competitive balance pick (35th overall) is perhaps the big coup for the Rays here, though the electric, enigmatic Joe Boyle will certainly get a ton of attention from pitching coach Kyle Snyder. Springs may not be the last player the Rays trade away; Zack Littell, Yandy Díaz, and Brandon Lowe reportedly have all come up in trade talks.

Biggest Rumors of the Week

• Earlier this week, before the Astros signed Walker, they nearly traded for Arenado, who would’ve been a great fit for Houston’s Minute Maid Park with the Crawford Boxes in left. However, Arenado decided he’d to stay with the Cardinals — at least for now. The veteran third baseman reportedly exercised his no-trade clause and vetoed an agreed upon swap that would’ve sent him from St. Louis to Houston. According to MLB.com, Arenado is willing to accept a trade to six teams — the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, and Angels — though it’s unclear if that’s a complete list. Several of those teams don’t have a spot for him anyway. Earlier today, Michael Baumann wrote about Arenado’s diminished performance and what his trade market might be. You should check that out for a more detailed look.

• In another installment of “things that didn’t actually happen,” Jeff Passan of ESPN has a good look at why the post-Soto free agency dam hasn’t really burst yet. Based on Jeff’s reporting, there’s no reason to believe we’re in for a glacially slow offseason a la 2018-19, but the remaining big moves look to be coming after Christmas.

DALLAS — What a week, huh? Juan Soto sparked the Winter Meetings on Sunday night when he agreed to sign with the Mets for 15 years, $765 million, some incentives, and one complementary suite instead of returning to the Yankees. The Yankees then pivoted on Tuesday and signed Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher. Willy Adames signed with the Giants for way more than anyone expected. Oh, and the White Sox got in on the fun, too!

The Matrix was popping off, so much so that I couldn’t stop myself from pulling out my computer during dinner to update the Soto signing. As the great television detective Adrian Monk would say, “Here’s what happened.”

Free Agent Signings

Mets Sign Juan Soto for 15 Years, $765 Million

• Dan Szymborski’s InstaGraphs of the Deal
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

The outfield in Queens would appear to be solidified now, with Brandon Nimmo in left, Soto in right, and Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri splitting time in center. DH, for now at least, looks like Starling Marte’s job, but the Mets certainly are not done spending and could look to upgrade their offense here. They are still very much in the market to re-sign Pete Alonso, who would likely be their everyday first baseman but could also see more time at DH depending on what other moves they make. Third baseman Mark Vientos has made strides as a defender, but he could slide over to first base or get more starts at DH. The Mets could also look to sign someone for the DH job outright. For example, Joc Pederson would fit well as a platoon partner for Marte.

Effect on Other Teams

Many of the deals below wouldn’t have happened this week if Soto were still on the free agent market. The Yankees certainly wouldn’t have signed Fried to his contract if Soto had accepted their $760 million offer, and the Mets very well could have spent some of the Soto money elsewhere. The cascading effects of an offseason are on display most prominently during the Winter Meetings, with quick responses needed lest you lose out on a player.

Effect on Similar Players

Similar players? What similar players?

Yankees Sign Max Fried for Eight Years, $218 Million

• Dan Szymborski’s InstaGraphs of the Deal
• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Yankees

The Yankees were aggressive in turning to Fried after losing Soto, and they now have a surplus of starting pitchers, at least in quantity if not aptitude. Gerrit Cole, Fried, and Carlos Rodón will fill out the top three spots in the rotation, with Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt battling for the last two as of Friday afternoon. The Yankees could use one of them in a trade for either Cody Bellinger of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals to improve their offense. Earlier Friday, the Yankees dealt another of their capable starters, Nestor Cortes, to the Brewers for one of the best relievers in baseball, Devin Williams (more on this trade later). If New York does decide to trade another starter, Gil (four years of club control) and Schmidt (three years) would be more valuable to other teams than Stroman.

Effect on Other Teams

Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Rangers and Red Sox were the other two teams in on Fried until the very end. The Rangers quickly pivoted to bringing back Nathan Eovaldi (more on him below), and the Red Sox counterpunched with their trade for Garrett Crochet. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, despite acquiring Crochet, the Red Sox are “still exploring” upgrades to their rotation, including Corbin Burnes.

Fried’s former team, the Braves, remain in the market for starting pitching, though it doesn’t look like they ever made much of an effort to retain the lefty. They haven’t had any known interest in Burnes, either, and they might even be too far apart from Charlie Morton, who should be modestly priced. Perhaps they reach for the bottom of the shelf for an arm like Martín Pérez, Spencer Turnbull, Joe Ross, or Patrick Corbin to add needed depth behind their solid front three of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach.

Effect on Similar Players

Burnes and agent Scott Boras have to be ecstatic after seeing Fried’s contract, as the lefty beat his median prediction (six years, $156 million) by nearly 40%. The same bump for Burnes’ median prediction (seven years, $217 million) would have him signing for over $300 million. Boras may well shoot for that number on a nine-year deal for Burnes, who’s a year younger than Fried.

Giants Sign Willy Adames for Seven Years, $182 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Giants

The Giants needed a shortstop, and they couldn’t have done any better than Adames. His defense weirdly took a step back in 2024, but considering his performance before that, along with his reputation, I believe his struggles to be more of a one-season blip rather than the start of a troubling trend. While new president of baseball operations Buster Posey may make moves to improve the San Francisco offense — LaMonte Wade Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski could reportedly be had in trades — it’s a deep enough group. Upgrading the Giants’ pitching is a more pressing concern.

Effect on Other Teams

If you wanted to sign a starting shortstop to be in the Opening Day lineup, you only had one great option, and now you have zero. Ha-Seong Kim has a ton of upside, but his timetable is unclear after shoulder surgery. (He’s expected to miss at least April.) Jose Iglesias had excellent results bouncing around the infield for the Mets, but his xBA and xwOBA do not inspire confidence that he’ll keep it up. Paul DeJong has some pop and plays solid defense, but he is extremely streaky. All three of those guys will have no problem getting big league deals, but they’re not Adames.

Effect on Similar Players

There are no free agent shortstops of Adames’ caliber, so those available at the position shouldn’t look at his contract and say, “Hey, great for me! I want that!” Alex Bregman, on the other hand, can use Adames as a decent measuring stick. Bregman is two years older than Adames and plays a less premium position, but they had similar seasons on offense (Adames, 119 wRC+; Bregman, 118), and Bregman’s had a better career peak (though that can only take him so far).

Adames’ AAV but with five years instead of seven gives Bregman a solid minimum to target ($130 million). Fortunately for him, he’s already got an offer from his former team with an extra year tacked on. It stands to reason, then, that Bregman might well be shooting for Adames’ exact deal if not better, and you better believe Boras is going to try his hardest to get his client $200 million.

Rangers Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi for Three Years, $75 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

Eovaldi adds much-needed stability to a Rangers rotation that currently features Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Tyler Mahle, who combined for just 38 big league starts last year to Eovaldi’s 29. Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, Emiliano Teodo, and Jack Leiter are next in line, so perhaps the Rangers feel they’ve got enough to make it work and can now turn their attention to their bullpen.

Effect on Other Teams

The Braves were the other team with significant buzz regarding Eovaldi, though they haven’t shown much willingness to spend this offseason, so I doubt they came anywhere near the Rangers’ offer. Reuniting with Morton or signing another stable veteran like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson feels more in line with where the Braves are at right now, especially with Spencer Strider working his way back from internal brace surgery.

Effect on Similar Players

They’re both encumbered by qualifying offers, but Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea are both roughly in the same tier as Eovaldi, whose median contract prediction was two years for $45 million. Considering Eovaldi garnered a surprising third year, it isn’t out of the question that Pivetta would get a four-year deal. Meanwhile, Manaea looks to be in good position to beat Eovaldi’s AAV on a three- or four-year deal, with nine figures well within the realm of possibility.

Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill (Three Years, $48.5 Million, with post-2025 Opt Out) and Gary Sánchez (One Year, $8.5 Million)

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

If the Orioles make any further changes to their offense, they’ll likely have to subtract before they add. Heston Kjerstad looks plenty deserving of playing time, but he’s not currently on the projected roster. Trading either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle would make sense, and it isn’t out of the question that they could trade Cedric Mullins — with Colton Cowser more than capable of handling center field — to free up a spot for Kjerstad in the corner outfield. Catcher is all set with Sánchez joining Adley Rutschman, eliminating the possibility of reunion with James McCann.

Effect on Other Teams

O’Neill’s injury history likely gave some teams pause and surely dampened his earnings, but on a rate basis, no free agent bat showed power as prodigious. In fact, he was fourth in the league in AB/HR among all 20-homer hitters. That’s not to say the options are sparse, though. Teoscar Hernández is coming off a fuller season than O’Neill, and historically he’s been much healthier. Anthony Santander, who almost surely won’t return to the Orioles with O’Neill in the fold, has big pop from both sides. They’ll cost more than O’Neill, who was in something of a class of his own among outfielders regarding his contract predictions. (O’Neill’s median prediction was three years and $40 million, which he beat handily, not to mention the opt-out.)

As for the catching market, it’s now pretty bare, with Carson Kelly reportedly closing in on a deal with the Cubs. Yasmani Grandal, Elias Díaz, and McCann are the three catchers left who have at least decent odds of securing an MLB deal.

Effect on Similar Players

While Santander and Hernández are in another class of player and contract prediction, they still both serve to benefit from O’Neill’s deal being better than expected, with an opt-out to boot. It might be tough for Santander to beat his median prediction of five years and $100.5 million by much, if at all, but Hernández ought to be aiming higher than three years, $70.5 million after seeing what O’Neill got. Jurickson Profar is another bat out there, and while he’s quite different from O’Neill, his contract predictions were similar. He may be able to get a fourth year or at least a heftier AAV on a three-year deal.

Mets Sign Clay Holmes for Three Years, $38 Million

• Jake Mailhot’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

The Mets lost three starting pitchers to free agency, with Luis Severino shipping off to Sacramento and Manaea and Jose Quintana still on the open market. They’ve filled two of those spots by signing Frankie Montas and Holmes, who is expected to transition from high-leverage reliever to starter. That leaves Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, and Tylor Megill as the only other healthy pitchers on the 40-man who started games this past season. Adding Holmes shouldn’t and won’t keep the Mets out of the starting pitching market, especially because they could use a six-man rotation to accommodate Senga’s schedule and limit Holmes’ innings. As noted on the Matrix in blue cells, the Mets have expressed interest in virtually every starter still out there.

Effect on Other Teams

Holmes’ pending conversion to the rotation puts teams in a weird spot; before he signed, some clubs considered the move as well, while others preferred to keep him in the bullpen. That means there aren’t many clean pivots for teams because their needs vary. The one comparable pitcher, though, is Jeff Hoffman. He is coming off a better relief season than Holmes, but he is also a candidate to move into a rotation, albeit with a very different profile from Holmes.

Effect on Similar Players

Holmes handily beat his median prediction of three years and $30 million and was able to secure an opt-out as well, good news for Hoffman if he too makes the move to the rotation. Hoffman, like Holmes, is entering his age-32 season, and comes with a slightly higher median contract prediction of three years and $33 million. Might he be able to get something like three years and $42 million with an opt out?

Guardians Sign Shane Bieber for Two Years, $26 Million (2026 player option)

• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

Immediately, there’s no real impact on the Guardians besides to their payroll. Bieber will miss the start of the season and could reasonably be out for the entire first half recovering from Tommy John surgery after making just two starts in 2024. The Guardians could perhaps use another healthy starter to team up with Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively, and Gavin Williams in the season-opening rotation, though the club isn’t without options. Joey Cantillo, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, and Doug Nikhazy are others on the 40-man vying for starting spots, and Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson’s meteoric rise through the system could continue.

Effect on Other Teams

As with the Guardians, there should be no immediate impact here. Bieber took less money to stay in a familiar spot, with the Red Sox one such team who made a strong push. Bieber offers upside at a price affordable only because he got hurt.

Effect on Similar Players

There aren’t really any pitchers who can view Bieber’s contract as a model. He’ll be out for a good chunk of the season, plus he turned down more money to stick around. The two-years-including-a-player-option model is one that other rehabbing pitchers could look to follow, albeit on a lesser scale. John Means and Brooks Raley could endeavor to control their own 2026 fates with options, as could Patrick Sandoval, though he’d be under club control via arbitration even if he turned down such an option.

Dodgers Re-Sign Blake Treinen (Two Years, $22 Million), Sign Michael Conforto (One Year, $17 Million)

• Dan Szymborski’s Write-Up of the Deals
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

The Dodgers still need another corner outfielder even with Conforto in the fold, and to that end, they’re still talking with Hernández, albeit with a gap in negotiations that may not be bridged. At any rate, I don’t think Andy Pages is going to enter the year as a starting outfielder, though he makes plenty of sense as an oft-playing bench bat.

As for the bullpen, the Dodgers aren’t simply looking to run back their championship bullpen core minus the retiring Daniel Hudson. Los Angeles is looking into signing Tanner Scott, the best lefty reliever available on the free agent market.

Effect on Other Teams

Righty relievers and lefty corner bats are always plentiful in free agency, but Treinen is arguably the nastiest of the bunch in the former group, and Conforto has a high ceiling for someone on a one-year deal. The Dodgers, along with other teams, were surely intrigued by Conforto’s 133 wRC+ away from the hitter-unfriendly Oracle Park, hence the hefty price for the pillow contract.

Effect on Similar Players

The old-but-still-nasty group of free agent relievers is strong even with Treinen and Aroldis Chapman off the board: Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Andrew Kittredge, and Chris Martin are all 35 or older. At least some of the younger members of that group (Robertson and Martin are likely year-to-year at this point) could be in line for multi-year deals at or around Treinen’s average-annual value, with Kahnle and Kittredge sure to be cheaper and Yates likely to be more expensive.

Bounce-back lefty bats are fewer and farther between, but one player who ought to be pleased by Conforto’s contract is Max Kepler. Kepler had an injury-riddled season in which he hit just eight homers across 399 plate appearances, but his last great season (2023) was more recent than Conforto’s (2020), and he’s a better fielder, too. The Dodgers may well have blown everyone out of the water just to sign Conforto, but Kepler’s contract could still beat his median prediction of $11 million.

Tigers Sign Alex Cobb (One Year, $15 Million); Blue Jays Sign Yimi García (Two Years, $15 Million); Phillies Sign Jordan Romano (One Year, $8.5 Million)

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Cobb/García Deals
• Baumann’s Write-Up of the Romano Deal
• Updated Tigers Roster Projection
• Updated Tigers Payroll Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
• Updated Phillies Roster Projection
• Updated Phillies Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

Baumann was our resident “write about all the pitchers who ended the season injured” guy, apparently. All three ended the season hurt, and all signed for more than I thought they would. If healthy, the’ll all add much-needed stability to their new teams. Cobb will give the Tigers another “real” starter to avoid using Tyler Holton to start every other day, Romano will help cover for the potential loss of Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, and García will help backfill a bullpen that lost Romano. The Tigers may feel content with their starting pitching options at the moment, but the Blue Jays and Phillies probably have more work to do to augment the relief corps.

Effect on Other Teams

This is just what pitching costs now, apparently. If teams hadn’t recalibrated already, now’s the time to do so. Maybe waiting things out will lead to some bargain-basement prices on lower-upside pitchers, but you’re not going to find great stuff for just a couple million bucks, injury concerns be damned.

Effect on Similar Players

Remaining pitchers coming off injury-riddled or injury-shortened seasons include starters Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Williams, and Spencer Turnbull; and relievers A.J. Minter, Joe Kelly, and Danny Coulombe. They all are of varying levels of upside, but based on how the pitching market is shaping up, they should be expected to command more than we initially expected.

Rockies Sign Thairo Estrada (One Year, $4 Million); White Sox Sign Mike Tauchman (One Year, $1.95 Million)

• Updated Rockies Roster Projection
• Updated Rockies Payroll Projection
• Updated White Sox Roster Projection
• Updated White Sox Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

Tauchman will step into the White Sox’ starting lineup, at least against righties; he’s a natural platoon partner for the righty-swinging Austin Slater, and his OBP skills work great atop a thin lineup. Estrada should be Colorado’s starting second baseman, sliding the newly acquired Kyle Farmer to a utility role.

Effect on Other Teams

Plenty of players from the bargain bin are still available; teams won’t be losing sleep over missing out on Tauchman and Estrada, even with their upside.

Effect on Similar Players

This was roughly what I expected these two to get after they were cut loose by their old teams, so this isn’t a needle-mover for the market.

Yankees Re-Sign Jonathan Loáisiga (One Year, $TBD, with 2026 club option); Rangers sign Jacob Webb (One Year, $1.25 Million)

• Updated Yankees Roster Projection
• Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
• Updated Rangers Roster Projection
• Updated Rangers Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

I grouped these two together not because they’re similar pitchers, but because their two teams are in similar situations. These two righties won’t be the last or best relief additions that either team makes, with each team losing three key relievers to the free agent pool. In fact, the Yankees made a bigger splash on Friday, when they traded with the Brewers for Williams. More on that later.

Effect on Other Teams

Little effect on the Yankees and Rangers also means there’s little effect on the other 28 teams. There are still relievers aplenty on the free agent board.

Effect on Similar Players

But, because Loáisiga had plenty of suitors, some of those relievers could sign in quick succession as teams pivot to other options on the market.

Trades

Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet From White Sox for Four Prospects

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of The Deal
• Updated Red Sox Roster Projection
• Updated Red Sox Payroll Projection
• Updated White Sox Roster Projection
• Updated White Sox Payroll Projection

Where the Red Sox Go From Here

The top three pitchers in the Red Sox’ rotation have some of the best stuff of any triad in the majors, and Kutter Crawford is a nice fourth starter to have despite his homer problem. There’s not great depth beyond that, though. Richard Fitts had a nice first four starts but didn’t miss bats, Lucas Giolito’s return date from elbow surgery is uncertain, and Cooper Criswell is probably best deployed as a swingman who never faces more than 18 hitters. To that end, Burnes is still on the table for Boston, and if not Burnes, the Red Sox could look to add a lower-tier option to fill a spot.

Where the White Sox Go From Here

Crochet was by far the biggest trade chip, but the White Sox are not without players who could be of interest to other teams. Luis Robert Jr. could be on the move before the offseason is over, even though he’s coming off the worst year of his career and is at the nadir of his value. They’d surely love to unload the last three years of Andrew Benintendi’s contract, but after he had a strong second half, the Sox would have to eat quite a bit of cash to facilitate a deal. Andrew Vaughn could also be of interest to other teams. From there, they could round out the roster with some sign-and-flip candidates.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes, Two Others

• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Astros Roster Projection
• Updated Astros Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

The natural move for the Cubs is to clear the outfield logjam by trading Bellinger, and I’d guess that they’re confident in their ability to do that with Tucker in the fold. Pete Crow-Armstrong was too good down the stretch to relegate to the bench, and Seiya Suzuki’s no-trade clause complicates his availability, plus he’s easily the best righty bat on the team. They could also look into a third base stopgap until Matt Shaw is ready. Yoán Moncada, Gio Urshela, and Paul DeJong would all come cheap.

Where the Astros Go From Here

No, I don’t think Taylor Trammell is actually going to be the Astros’ Opening Day right fielder, as we currently have projected. The Astros are operating under some payroll constraints but just saved about $9 million by replacing Tucker with Paredes, and they could reinvest that money into a one-year deal for Max Kepler or Alex Verdugo. I’d be surprised if the Astros brought Bregman back with Paredes in the fold, though the latter could slide over to first base and replace Jon Singleton if Bregman returns.

Andrés Giménez to Blue Jays, Spencer Horwitz to Pirates, Luis L. Ortiz to Guardians in Not-Quite-Three-Team Trade

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of Giménez to Toronto and Horwitz to Pittsburgh
• Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
• Updated Pirates Roster Projection
• Updated Pirates Payroll Projection
• Updated Guardians Roster Projection
• Updated Guardians Payroll Projection

Where the Blue Jays Go From Here

Toronto has majorly upgraded its defense at the expense of its offense, so the natural action here is to explore another move (or two, or three, or…) that would augment a lineup that isn’t exactly a threat besides Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a theoretical return to form for Bo Bichette. The Jays have expressed interest in Bregman and Santander along with some more complementary bats on the market like Gleyber Torres.

Where the Pirates Go From Here

The Pirates desperately need offense this offseason, and while Horwitz is a nice get, they still should add more hitters. Having Isiah Kiner-Falefa as their leadoff batter on Opening Day, as we currently project, would be somewhere between “not ideal” and “organizational malpractice.” A reunion with Andrew McCutchen makes all the sense in the world, but that’s more of a depth move. It would behoove the Pirates to take a big swing at a big swinger to support a solid pitching staff. Santander, Teoscar Hernández, and Christian Walker each would be transformative.

Where the Guardians Go From Here

As far as a direct response to this trade is concerned, the Guards really don’t need to make one. Cleveland is teeming with infield depth and can simply use someone like Angel Martínez or Juan Brito to keep the seat warm for the eventual arrival of this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. Ortiz lessens the team’s need in the rotation, too, with four spots now looking to be in pretty good shape and Triston McKenzie out of options.

Yankees Acquire Devin Williams From Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

• Updated Yankees Roster Projection
• Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
• Updated Brewers Roster Projection
• Updated Pirates Payroll Projection

Where the Yankees Go From Here

Williams and Luke Weaver give the Yankees a great one-two punch in the back end of their bullpen, but they shouldn’t be done adding relief arms. We currently project New York’s bullpen to be all right-handed, so a reunion with Tim Hill would make a lot of sense. If they wanted to form probably the league’s most formidable bullpen trio, they could go big and sign Tanner Scott.

Durbin had been penciled in as the Yankees’ starting second baseman, and losing him increases the need for his former club to acquire another infielder. They’ve shown interest in third baseman Bregman, whose addition would slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second, and they still desperately need to upgrade at first base; they’re reportedly in the market for Walker and Alonso. They could also re-sign Torres to play second, with Chisholm remaining at third.

Where the Brewers Go From Here

Barring any other trades (like shedding Aaron Civale’s $8 million projected salary, for example), the Brewers have to be feeling pretty good about their rotation. Cortes joins Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Civale, and Tobias Myers in the starting five, with DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, Connor Thomas, and top prospect Jacob Misiorowski around as rotation depth.

Durbin will help out in the infield and is currently projected to platoon with Oliver Dunn at third, though both players are unproven, and Durbin has yet to make his MLB debut. Milwaukee has expressed interest in Ha-Seong Kim, who will miss the start of the season but has more upside than any of the team’s current infielders.

Rangers Get Jake Burger in Trade With Marlins for Three Prospects

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Trade
• Updated Rangers Roster Projection
• Updated Rangers Payroll Projection
• Updated Marlins Roster Projection
• Updated Marlins Payroll Projection

Where the Rangers Go From Here

On the surface, the Rangers have too many hitters for nine spots, with Kyle Higashioka, Josh Smith, and Leody Taveras all starting-caliber but currently projected on the bench. However, there are legitimate concerns with the health of Evan Carter coming off back surgery, Josh Jung after two wrist surgeries, and Corey Seager after hernia surgery. Burger provides needed insurance on the infield corners as well as at DH. Roster redundancy is only a problem if everyone is healthy and performing, and that’s rarely the case for any team.

Where the Marlins Go From Here

This doesn’t necessarily portend further gutting by Peter Bendix and company, with Bendix expressing a desire to give playing time to upstart youngsters like Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustin Ramirez. Jesús Sánchez could be of interest to other teams if Miami wants to open some outfield playing time for less experienced players.

Biggest Rumors of the Week

• The Tucker trade should shape Bregman’s market, as he might be the next big free agent to come off the board. Houston’s acquisition of Paredes in that deal likely closes off the chance of a reunion with Bregman, who has other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays) interested in him.

• A big week for starting pitcher signings leaves Burnes as the best remaining free agent by far, and he too may be nearing a decision. If the Blue Jays and Giants are indeed the favorites and one of them signs him, he’d be joining a team coming off a disappointing season but looking to turn things around quickly.

For the last six offseasons, I’ve spent (too) much of my time compiling my Offseason Matrices Google doc, a project that Davy Andrews so kindly described as “a work of absolute madness.”

The document has evolved hugely since its first iteration in the 2018-19 offseason, with more tabs, better formatting and color-coding, linking to sources, and many more improvements to make it more user friendly and comprehensive. Now, in this weekly article, I’ll be running down the latest updates, talking through how the latest signings and trades have had downstream effects on the team that actually acquired the player, as well as others who didn’t. The goal here isn’t to rehash every move that happens; that’s what the initial FanGraphs coverage was for! Rather, my aim is to add some additional context and comments and summarize how the landscape of the offseason has changed with the moves. After all, that’s what all the color-coding on the Matrix is for.

Biggest Rumors of the Week

• Juan Soto appears to be getting closer to a decision, with at most five teams still in the (known) running: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Mystery teams are always possible, I suppose, but now that the bidding has reportedly hit $600 million, I highly doubt it. Soto has begun to eliminate teams, though we’re not sure which teams are out and how many remain. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, we’re expected to know Soto’s destination by the beginning of the Winter Meetings on Monday at the latest.

• The Yankees appear to be preparing for life after Soto, though they certainly hope it won’t come to that. They reportedly have met with free agent starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, and could push hard to sign infielder Willy Adames if Soto leaves. On the trade side of things, they’ve showed interest in Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to replace Soto as a lefty bat in the middle of the lineup. Bellinger could also fill their opening at first base and might be an option even if Soto returns. Speaking of first base options, earlier in the offseason, the Yankees checked in on Pete Alonso and were one of the teams to express interest in Christian Walker.

• Trader Jerry is at it again, with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reporting that the Mariners have had preliminary discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and the Cubs about Nico Hoerner. Teams will have conversations with dozens of free agents and about dozens of trade targets, so don’t draw any conclusions about these specific players just yet. However, these two nuggets signal that Jerry Dipoto is looking to upgrade at third base and second base, perhaps aggressively. Also, big ups to Dave Dombrowski for reportedly asking for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in exchange for Bohm.

• Korean second baseman Hye-seong Kim has officially been posted for MLB clubs, and he now has until 5 p.m. EST on January 3 to reach a deal. He’s was already linked to the Mariners pre-posting, and other teams should surely follow now that he’s officially available. Eric Longenhagen has him graded as a 40 FV player who may not have a ton of upside but should represent a relatively low-cost option. Ha-Seong Kim (no relation, though they did play together in Korea) signed for four years and $28 million when he came stateside before the 2021 season, and Hye-seong should end up around there.

A’s Sign Luis Severino for Three Years, $67 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the A’s

Well folks, we’ve got our first true “he signed WHERE???” of the offseason. The A’s are showing they’re at least somewhat-committed to fielding a more competitive team in 2025. Plus, $67 million for Severino is also a strong indication that it might take something of a premium to lure players to a minor-league ballpark for any length of time, especially a player like Severino. This’ll almost certainly be the largest deal the A’s sign this offseason, but for the first time in a few years, you don’t have to squint too hard to see the makings of a decent team.

Effect on Other Teams

I’m not sure how many other suitors Severino had, nor do I know how many of them had the A’s on their radar as potentially vying for him alongside them. Whatever the case may be, such teams are going to turn their attention to similar pitchers, perhaps others with qualifying offers attached, such as Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea, or an unencumbered pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi.

Effect on Similar Players

Those similar guys I just mentioned are probably doing cartwheels after learning Severino signed for $23 million a year. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had the highest contract prediction (on the Total Spending Projection tab) for Severino of the ones I was able to aggregate, and he was low by $8.5 million. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Pivetta, Manaea, and Eovaldi will sign for many millions more than expected, but one fewer pitcher on the board — signed by an unexpected team, no less — should increase demand for those three.

Mets Sign Frankie Montas for Two Years, $34 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

This doesn’t close off the Mets from adding to their rotation; they’ve still got at least two rotation spots to fill, with Kodai Senga joining Montas and likely David Peterson as locks for the starting five. This move should also solidify José Buttó as a reliever, even if he’s stretched out during spring training.

Effect on Other Teams

Might this get rivals calling about Paul Blackburn? We know the Mets need as many starters as they can get, but Blackburn has fallen further down the depth chart with the Montas addition, and his going on the IL for leaking spinal fluid meant the Mets couldn’t evaluate him much after acquiring him from the A’s at the trade deadline.

Effect on Similar Players

Montas’ snagging $34 million over two years (with an opt out!) seemed to help out Matthew Boyd (more on him later), and that $17 million average annual value ought to be good news for similarly ranked players like Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, and Michael Lorenzen. I think Montas will outdo all of those guys in AAV, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see most of them beat their median contract prediction, which you can find on the Total Spending Projection tab.

Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd for Two Years, $14.5 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

Likelier than not, the Boyd addition will end the Cubs’ pursuit of starting pitching, at least when it comes to adding other mid-tier arms. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Boyd should all be guaranteed starting jobs, and I think the Cubs would only bump Javier Assad if they were able to land a true impact starter like Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, or Jack Flaherty.

Effect on Other Teams

Like Blackburn with the Mets, Assad could end up as a trade target for teams in need of starting pitching depth, though I’m not sure how willing the Cubs would be to part with him. As I said, I think Assad has a leg up on the competition for the fifth starter spot. However, perhaps the Cubs would be more likely to trade him if he were part of a deal to land a better starter, such as the aforementioned Crochet. Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski are now on the outside looking in for rotation spots. Despite Chicago’s strong depth, as a rule, I generally don’t mark teams’ columns on the FA Matrix with maroon cells (denoting filled positions) for pitchers, since you can never have too many.

Effect on Similar Players

Mid-rotation arms are getting paid this winter!

Red Sox Sign Aroldis Chapman for One Year, $10.75 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Red Sox

The Red Sox entered the offseason with quite a lot of work to do in their bullpen. That said, Boston has to be pretty comfortable with its lefties now that Chapman and Justin Wilson are in the fold. Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser are also on the 40-man.

Effect on Other Teams

We don’t know of any other teams who were interested in Chapman, but with clearly the second-best lefty reliever off the board, there’s now a big chasm between big fish Tanner Scott and the rest of the lefties for teams looking to add a southpaw. Besides Scott, there’s also Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Hoby Milner, among others. Plenty of interesting names there, but only Chapman has the high-octane gas that Scott also possesses.

Effect on Similar Players

That $10.75 million is a healthy contract for Chapman, and it should set a good target for veteran high-leverage arms outside of the big four of Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, and Carlos Estévez. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson should all be aiming for at least $10 million.

Rangers Sign Kyle Higashioka for Two Years, $12.5 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

The Heim-Higashioka timeshare takes the Rangers out of the catcher market for the rest of the offseason. (Their column now has maroon cells for all catchers who should get MLB deals.) It also gives them an obvious trade chip in Sam Huff, who’s hit well in limited MLB opportunities for the past four years, but has never been highly regarded behind the dish.

Effect on Other Teams

Huff’s entry onto the trade block somewhat offsets the inability for other teams to sign Higashioka, though again, Huff probably isn’t a catcher and certainly doesn’t have the reputation Higgy has back there. The catcher market is the one position player group that’s moved quickly in free agency; Higashioka, Jacob Stallings, Austin Hedges, Danny Jansen, and Travis d’Arnaud are now all off the board. Carson Kelly, Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sánchez, Elias Díaz, and James McCann are the best options left.

Effect on Similar Players

Of those best options I just mentioned, Kelly is the only option left who strikes me as likely to sign a multi-year deal. Higashioka essentially matched his median contract prediction of two years and $14 million, signing for just $500,000 less. That’s a helpful data point for Kelly, whose median prediction is two years at $14 million.

Rays Sign Danny Jansen for One Year, $8.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rays

Along with the Rangers, the Rays now have their catcher timeshare settled for 2025, with the lefty-hitting Ben Rortvedt and lefty-mashing Jansen forming a natural platoon. For $8.5 million, Jansen could get plenty of run against righties, too, but Rortvedt should play more than a typical backup even if he’s relegated to that role. The Rays already lost René Pinto off waivers to the Orioles, so Logan Driscoll will be down in Triple-A as the top depth option.

Effect on Other Teams

If you want a catcher, options are dwindling quickly. If none of the backstops I mentioned in the Higashioka section sound particularly enticing, maybe call the Pirates and ask about Jason Delay or Henry Davis, or talk to the Phillies about Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs.

Effect on Similar Players

Jansen’s contract ended up being worse than expected; his median contract prediction was two years and $18 million, so he didn’t even match the AAV. This might read as bad news for Kelly, but I think Kelly is closer to Higashioka than he is to Jansen. Kelly has a strong defensive reputation and is also coming off a better season, whereas Jansen has a concerning injury history and had a rough 2023 campaign.