Archive for 2020 ZiPS Projections

2020 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

In my opinion, closing the deal with Josh Donaldson salvaged the Twins’ offseason. The team didn’t make any big moves last winter, disappointingly starting 2019 with a lower payroll than in 2018, but it did make several lower-key additions. With the Indians engaged in crippling levels of inaction, the Twins were able to “steal a march” on Cleveland and surprise them from behind. Minnesota had a quieter winter in the early going of this year and my worry — from their point of view that is — was that the Twins might enabling the White Sox to do to them in 2020 what they did to Cleveland in 2019.

Adding Donaldson, and moving Miguel Sanó to first, closes up the final hole in the starting lineup. Now, the Twins lineup resembles a classic Cardinals lineup, in the very best sense. There are no superstars — not even Donaldson — but the lineup is stacked, with every single starter projected to be at least league average. And there might be some upside remaining in Byron Buxton and Sanó. Like the best St. Louis teams, ZiPS sees the Twins as having ample backup plans at most positions, with Willians Astudillo, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Avila, and even Jake Cave and Tomás Telis/Ryan Jeffers as more-than-capable fill-ins.

I’m very happy to see that ZiPS, like Steamer, has become a true disciple of Luis Arraez. His 2019 projection of .268/.309/.354 was more than respectable for a player who only had a couple months of Double-A experience and who was on the edges of prospect status. Arraez blew through that quickly, hitting .344/.409/.401 in the minors and .334/.399/.439 in 92 major league games. And remember, the offensive explosion in the minors was home run related, something that didn’t much benefit Arraez, who had all of six professional homers when the Twins called him up (and none in 2019). I didn’t have an American League Rookie of the Year vote, but Arraez would have been either second or third on my ballot. I’m know it’s likely that ZiPS is projecting Arraez to lead the league in batting average, but so be it; I don’t put my thumb on the scale.

Pitchers

While I love the Donaldson signing, I would much rather have seen them sign the Josh Donaldson of pitching. The top of the rotation is solid, with José Berríos and Jake Odorizzi, and Rich Hill and Homer Bailey aren’t bad pickups, especially as the team waits for Michael Pineada to come back from suspension, but there are too many interesting question marks behind Berríos and Odorizzi. That’s a more palatable situation for a rebuilding team than a contending one. The Twins are still one, possibly two pitchers away from me feeling comfortable with their roster. The rotation is unlikely to be a disaster because they also project to have a lot of reasonable back-end options, but the whole complexion of this group changes with Zack Wheeler or Hyun-Jin Ryu in there.

The bullpen looks a lot like the offense in that there’s nobody really dominant apart from Taylor Rogers, but it’s not really weak anywhere either. ZiPS likes a lot of the team’s Triple-A bound relievers, with pitchers like Ryne Harper, Danny Coulombe, Andrew Vasquez, Blaine Hardy, and Cody Stashak all having the potential to add real value to the parent club if needed.

Prospects

While ZiPS still sees Royce Lewis ending up with more career WAR than Nick Gordon, that gap is much narrower than scouts’ perceptions of the two middle infielders would suggest. ZiPS thinks Lewis has a lot more upside than Gordon, but also a fairly large chance of being a total bust; ZiPS translates his 2019 minor league performance at .193/.234/.305, coming off a .228/.276/.339 translation in 2018. ZiPS thinks Gordon is a safer bet, but doesn’t see a great deal of upside, pegging him basically as a one-win starter for most of his career. Given where the Twins are right now, if they can land a real difference-maker on the mound with a package centered around Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, I would pull that trigger in an instant.

ZiPS is more optimistic about the pitching prospects. Both Brusdar Graterol and Lewis Thorpe received projections suggesting they could pitch right now in the majors without the least bit of embarrassment, forming part of the Twins’ ample supply of third-through-fifth starters. And if you’re looking for some interesting names of the fringe prospect variety, ZiPS gives a better than 50/50 shot that either Griffin Jax or Bailey Ober have at least one league-average season as a starter in the majors. Now, I’d be skeptical of Ober until he passes the Triple-A test — he looks like an NBA power forward with a fastball that’s maybe better than Jered Weaver’s — but I like giving players who don’t fit the mold but play well every opportunity to pass or fail on merit.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Josh Donaldson R 34 3B 539 452 76 116 24 1 27 79 80 121 4 2
Max Kepler L 27 RF 587 516 85 131 31 3 28 84 61 104 3 4
Jorge Polanco B 26 SS 656 590 86 166 35 7 19 83 53 110 7 5
Luis Arraez L 23 2B 638 576 82 178 30 3 6 45 57 45 6 4
Miguel Sano R 27 1B 482 418 76 100 19 2 35 91 59 181 0 1
Nelson Cruz R 39 DH 484 426 63 116 19 0 32 96 46 116 0 1
Byron Buxton R 26 CF 393 357 54 88 21 4 13 49 27 110 17 2
Eddie Rosario L 28 LF 601 568 89 161 33 2 27 96 26 99 6 3
Mitch Garver R 29 C 379 334 55 83 18 1 18 61 40 94 0 0
Willians Astudillo R 28 C 334 314 39 89 15 1 12 42 8 13 2 3
Marwin Gonzalez B 31 RF 487 443 55 117 26 1 15 65 36 103 4 2
Alex Avila L 33 C 243 199 22 40 7 0 9 27 42 90 1 0
Jake Cave L 27 CF 494 449 63 116 25 5 17 64 35 146 4 2
Ryan Jeffers R 23 C 404 369 44 86 16 0 12 40 28 97 0 0
Tomás Telis B 29 C 356 333 38 92 16 2 5 36 17 40 1 1
Ian Miller L 28 CF 526 481 56 119 23 4 5 43 34 102 29 6
Nick Gordon L 24 SS 492 459 51 113 25 4 6 44 26 116 15 5
Ehire Adrianza B 30 SS 279 249 35 64 13 2 6 30 20 51 3 2
Alex Kirilloff L 22 RF 508 475 54 128 26 2 15 54 26 105 6 5
Drew Maggi R 31 3B 428 378 45 84 16 2 6 31 36 104 8 5
Ben Rortvedt L 22 C 353 320 34 67 14 2 7 30 27 86 0 0
LaMonte Wade Jr L 26 RF 467 399 54 94 15 3 8 37 56 81 6 3
Luke Raley L 25 RF 445 406 51 94 15 5 13 47 23 138 5 1
Jimmy Kerrigan R 26 CF 388 362 37 78 13 1 12 37 15 128 8 6
Wynston Sawyer R 28 C 202 181 21 41 11 0 4 18 15 55 0 1
Wilfredo Tovar R 28 SS 429 403 40 98 19 2 4 35 22 65 8 6
Jack Reinheimer R 27 SS 432 390 44 87 15 2 5 32 35 99 12 5
Alejandro De Aza L 36 LF 180 159 20 37 7 1 4 17 16 39 3 0
Mike Miller R 30 SS 326 298 32 72 12 0 3 22 21 52 5 4
Gilberto Celestino R 21 CF 521 483 49 109 21 1 11 44 32 114 14 8
Brent Rooker R 25 LF 406 363 48 78 17 1 17 51 35 142 2 1
Jose Miranda R 22 3B 535 503 51 114 25 1 12 53 20 77 0 1
Juan Graterol R 31 C 227 213 19 50 8 0 1 17 8 24 0 1
Ivan De Jesus Jr. R 33 3B 323 292 30 69 12 1 3 24 23 69 1 3
Cody Asche L 30 3B 318 283 34 59 13 1 8 35 30 97 3 2
Travis Blankenhorn L 23 2B 501 471 50 107 21 3 15 53 23 136 8 2
Royce Lewis R 21 SS 583 542 57 122 24 3 13 51 33 151 19 12
Wilin Rosario R 31 1B 443 414 50 102 21 1 15 61 21 95 3 2
Brandon Barnes R 34 LF 484 446 49 96 22 1 12 50 28 150 9 3
Zander Wiel R 27 1B 512 468 56 101 25 4 15 58 35 157 3 1
Trevor Larnach L 23 RF 519 473 53 114 25 2 12 50 39 143 3 1
Michael Davis L 24 SS 244 226 20 35 8 1 5 18 16 118 2 1
Andrew Bechtold R 24 3B 446 401 38 73 15 1 4 28 41 158 4 2
Caleb Hamilton R 25 C 365 330 33 60 15 1 6 30 31 114 4 4

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Josh Donaldson .257 .373 .493 125 .237 .293 6.7 3 3.9 Ron Santo
Max Kepler .254 .337 .488 118 .234 .268 5.9 9 3.1 Trot Nixon
Jorge Polanco .281 .342 .461 113 .180 .319 5.9 -4 3.0 Jorge Orta
Luis Arraez .309 .370 .403 108 .094 .328 5.8 -1 2.8 Dustin Pedroia
Miguel Sano .239 .336 .545 131 .306 .322 6.5 2 2.7 Jay Buhner
Nelson Cruz .272 .353 .542 135 .270 .302 7.1 0 2.7 Fred McGriff
Byron Buxton .246 .305 .437 96 .190 .321 5.2 8 2.0 Devon White
Eddie Rosario .283 .312 .491 111 .208 .303 5.8 2 1.9 Garret Anderson
Mitch Garver .249 .332 .470 112 .222 .293 5.6 -4 1.8 Steve Yeager
Willians Astudillo .283 .312 .452 102 .169 .266 5.2 2 1.5 Frank House
Marwin Gonzalez .264 .326 .429 100 .165 .314 5.1 2 1.2 Mike Brown
Alex Avila .201 .342 .372 92 .171 .310 4.3 4 1.2 Wes Westrum
Jake Cave .258 .318 .450 103 .192 .346 5.2 -7 1.2 Junior Felix
Ryan Jeffers .233 .297 .374 79 .141 .285 3.9 3 1.0 Pete Beeler
Tomás Telis .276 .315 .381 86 .105 .302 4.5 0 0.8 Charlie Moore
Ian Miller .247 .303 .343 74 .096 .305 4.1 4 0.8 Chris Roberson
Nick Gordon .246 .291 .357 73 .111 .318 3.8 2 0.6 Ron Gardenhire
Ehire Adrianza .257 .315 .398 90 .141 .302 4.5 -4 0.4 Joe Randa
Alex Kirilloff .269 .311 .427 96 .158 .318 4.8 -3 0.3 Jose Guillen
Drew Maggi .222 .306 .323 70 .101 .291 3.4 4 0.3 Chico Ruiz
Ben Rortvedt .209 .278 .331 63 .122 .264 3.1 4 0.3 Walt McKeel
LaMonte Wade Jr .236 .337 .348 85 .113 .277 4.1 -2 0.2 John Lewis
Luke Raley .232 .292 .389 81 .158 .318 4.1 1 0.0 Rusty Tillman
Jimmy Kerrigan .215 .258 .356 63 .141 .297 3.1 6 0.0 Greg Porter
Wynston Sawyer .227 .302 .354 76 .127 .303 3.6 -3 0.0 Dusty Brown
Wilfredo Tovar .243 .283 .330 64 .087 .281 3.2 2 0.0 Dave Myers
Jack Reinheimer .223 .288 .310 61 .087 .287 3.2 2 -0.1 Drew Meyer
Alejandro De Aza .233 .313 .365 82 .132 .284 4.2 -1 -0.1 Brian Jordan
Mike Miller .242 .293 .312 63 .070 .284 3.2 0 -0.2 Al Pedrique
Gilberto Celestino .226 .278 .342 66 .116 .274 3.3 3 -0.2 Mike Rennhack
Brent Rooker .215 .293 .408 85 .193 .299 4.1 -4 -0.2 Shon Ashley
Jose Miranda .227 .265 .352 64 .125 .246 3.2 4 -0.2 Rob Cosby
Juan Graterol .235 .270 .286 50 .052 .261 2.6 2 -0.3 Bob Swift
Ivan De Jesus Jr. .236 .299 .315 66 .079 .300 3.1 -1 -0.4 Ron Oester
Cody Asche .208 .289 .346 70 .138 .287 3.4 -4 -0.4 Trace Coquillette
Travis Blankenhorn .227 .268 .380 71 .153 .288 3.6 -4 -0.4 Carlos Casimiro
Royce Lewis .225 .271 .352 66 .127 .288 3.2 -2 -0.5 Asdrubal Cabrera
Wilin Rosario .246 .289 .411 85 .164 .286 4.2 -4 -0.5 Chan Perry
Brandon Barnes .215 .269 .350 65 .135 .296 3.3 5 -0.6 Orsino Hill
Zander Wiel .216 .275 .382 74 .167 .291 3.6 1 -0.6 Doug Devore
Trevor Larnach .241 .301 .378 81 .137 .321 4.1 -6 -0.6 Juan Tejeda
Michael Davis .155 .213 .265 28 .111 .291 1.8 1 -1.1 Dave Detienne
Andrew Bechtold .182 .258 .254 39 .072 .289 2.2 2 -1.6 Jake Wald
Caleb Hamilton .182 .255 .288 46 .106 .257 2.3 -7 -1.6 Brian Moon

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Jose Berrios R 26 13 10 4.17 32 32 190.0 179 88 27 59 193 3.93
Jake Odorizzi R 30 12 8 4.09 29 29 149.7 136 68 22 52 158 4.02
Randy Dobnak R 25 10 8 4.29 32 25 147.0 161 70 17 38 100 4.10
Rich Hill L 40 7 4 3.59 18 18 87.7 73 35 13 28 103 3.72
Devin Smeltzer L 24 7 6 4.55 33 25 144.3 155 73 24 35 122 4.38
Michael Pineda R 31 7 6 4.50 22 22 118.0 125 59 21 25 110 4.26
Taylor Rogers L 29 4 2 3.09 63 0 67.0 56 23 6 19 78 2.87
Lewis Thorpe L 24 8 7 4.69 31 23 126.7 130 66 23 38 132 4.36
Brusdar Graterol R 21 6 5 4.52 30 16 85.7 86 43 11 37 77 4.35
Griffin Jax R 25 6 5 4.86 22 22 113.0 130 61 15 29 68 4.47
Bailey Ober R 24 4 4 4.56 15 14 73.0 77 37 14 17 63 4.65
Bryan Sammons L 25 8 8 5.01 25 24 109.7 113 61 15 58 94 4.83
Matt Wisler R 27 6 6 4.83 38 15 104.3 110 56 18 28 101 4.29
Blaine Hardy L 33 3 2 4.14 41 5 63.0 63 29 7 18 49 3.93
Sean Poppen R 26 6 6 5.04 24 18 103.7 109 58 15 47 91 4.67
Jhoan Duran R 22 8 8 5.09 23 23 104.3 106 59 16 53 101 4.76
Zack Littell R 24 3 2 4.05 66 0 80.0 76 36 9 32 78 3.89
Tyler Duffey R 29 4 3 4.04 61 0 71.3 65 32 11 21 85 3.68
Cody Stashak R 26 5 5 4.65 42 7 79.3 81 41 14 21 77 4.33
Trevor May R 30 4 3 3.93 57 0 52.7 44 23 7 24 65 3.81
Charlie Barnes L 24 7 7 5.31 25 24 120.3 133 71 16 64 84 5.11
Adam Bray R 27 4 4 4.93 32 10 84.0 95 46 15 26 65 4.88
Homer Bailey R 34 8 9 5.41 25 25 126.3 142 76 24 45 109 4.99
Addison Reed R 31 3 2 4.18 58 0 56.0 57 26 9 13 51 4.14
Sam Dyson R 32 4 3 4.20 59 0 55.7 55 26 7 18 46 4.13
Ryne Harper R 31 4 3 4.20 53 0 55.7 55 26 8 16 53 4.01
Daniel Coulombe L 30 3 2 4.14 42 0 45.7 41 21 6 19 53 3.82
Andrew Vasquez L 26 3 2 4.35 37 1 49.7 42 24 4 36 57 4.11
Edwar Colina R 23 5 6 5.40 20 16 93.3 97 56 14 52 78 5.13
Fernando Romero R 25 3 2 4.40 57 0 71.7 69 35 7 35 67 4.05
Gabriel Moya L 25 3 3 4.83 48 7 59.7 59 32 10 25 58 4.67
Jorge Alcala R 24 6 7 5.35 31 16 102.7 109 61 16 53 89 5.02
Preston Guilmet R 32 3 3 4.76 41 4 62.3 63 33 12 19 66 4.48
Sergio Romo R 37 2 2 4.38 57 0 51.3 49 25 9 16 54 4.29
Andro Cutura R 26 3 4 5.37 16 12 62.0 71 37 9 25 38 5.05
Tyler Clippard R 35 2 2 4.45 56 0 54.7 48 27 10 20 63 4.35
DJ Baxendale R 29 5 5 5.23 30 9 74.0 81 43 12 29 58 4.90
Jeremy Bleich L 33 3 3 4.70 31 2 44.0 47 23 6 16 37 4.36
Melvi Acosta R 25 5 6 5.28 26 8 73.3 82 43 10 35 48 5.08
Ian Krol L 29 2 2 4.53 50 0 51.7 49 26 7 25 56 4.23
Jonathan Cheshire R 25 3 3 4.57 27 0 41.3 45 21 5 14 27 4.46
Anthony Vizcaya R 26 3 3 4.87 43 2 68.3 68 37 10 37 63 4.86
Ryan Garton R 30 3 3 4.77 43 1 60.3 59 32 8 32 59 4.54
Tom Hackimer R 26 4 4 4.70 35 0 51.7 48 27 5 36 49 4.63
Sam Clay L 27 4 5 5.11 41 4 68.7 67 39 6 51 59 4.83
Jake Reed R 27 4 3 4.86 43 1 66.7 64 36 9 34 67 4.46
Caleb Thielbar L 33 2 2 4.75 43 0 60.7 63 32 11 16 55 4.52
Ryan Mason R 25 4 3 4.84 29 0 48.3 52 26 7 19 37 4.71
Ryan O’Rourke L 32 3 3 5.01 43 1 46.7 43 26 6 32 51 4.72
Brandon Barnes R 34 0 0 7.36 3 0 3.7 5 3 1 1 1 7.00
Cody Allen R 31 3 3 5.10 51 1 47.7 43 27 9 27 56 4.98
Jovani Moran L 23 3 4 5.17 29 0 47.0 41 27 7 38 56 5.16
Mitch Horacek L 28 3 3 5.62 45 0 49.7 51 31 8 32 48 5.27
Hector Lujan R 25 3 4 5.46 36 0 57.7 65 35 12 21 44 5.45
Tyler Watson L 27 1 2 6.08 22 0 37.0 43 25 8 17 28 5.86
Chase De Jong R 26 5 8 6.75 23 21 110.7 136 83 27 48 72 6.35

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Berrios 9.1 2.8 1.3 7.3% 23.9% .295 107 94 3.1 Steve Rogers
Jake Odorizzi 9.5 3.1 1.3 8.3% 25.1% .289 109 92 2.5 Pat Hentgen
Randy Dobnak 6.1 2.3 1.0 6.0% 15.7% .304 104 96 2.1 Fred Newman
Rich Hill 10.6 2.9 1.3 7.7% 28.2% .279 116 87 1.6 Al Leiter
Devin Smeltzer 7.6 2.2 1.5 5.7% 19.7% .304 98 102 1.7 Scott McGregor
Michael Pineda 8.4 1.9 1.6 5.0% 22.0% .306 99 101 1.5 Bob Tewksbury
Taylor Rogers 10.5 2.6 0.8 6.9% 28.3% .296 144 69 1.5 Sparky Lyle
Lewis Thorpe 9.4 2.7 1.6 7.0% 24.2% .308 95 105 1.3 Glendon Rusch
Brusdar Graterol 8.1 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.4% .301 99 101 1.0 Russ Meyer
Griffin Jax 5.4 2.3 1.2 5.9% 13.7% .305 92 109 1.0 Rick Wise
Bailey Ober 7.8 2.1 1.7 5.4% 20.2% .294 98 102 0.9 Dave Rozema
Bryan Sammons 7.7 4.8 1.2 11.6% 18.8% .302 89 112 0.8 Terry Mulholland
Matt Wisler 8.7 2.4 1.6 6.3% 22.6% .310 92 108 0.8 Tony Arnold
Blaine Hardy 7.0 2.6 1.0 6.8% 18.4% .293 108 93 0.7 Ramon Hernandez
Sean Poppen 7.9 4.1 1.3 10.1% 19.5% .306 89 113 0.7 Sean White
Jhoan Duran 8.7 4.6 1.4 11.3% 21.4% .305 88 114 0.7 Rick Berg
Zack Littell 8.8 3.6 1.0 9.3% 22.6% .300 110 91 0.6 Turk Farrell
Tyler Duffey 10.7 2.6 1.4 7.0% 28.4% .302 110 91 0.6 Mike Burns
Cody Stashak 8.7 2.4 1.6 6.2% 22.7% .300 96 104 0.5 John Doherty
Trevor May 11.1 4.1 1.2 10.7% 28.9% .291 113 88 0.5 Ken Ryan
Charlie Barnes 6.3 4.8 1.2 11.5% 15.1% .304 84 119 0.5 Jerry Reuss
Adam Bray 7.0 2.8 1.6 7.0% 17.5% .307 90 111 0.5 John Doherty
Homer Bailey 7.8 3.2 1.7 8.0% 19.4% .311 82 121 0.4 Pat Ahearne
Addison Reed 8.2 2.1 1.4 5.5% 21.7% .298 107 94 0.4 Hi Bell
Sam Dyson 7.4 2.9 1.1 7.5% 19.2% .291 106 94 0.4 Kent Tekulve
Ryne Harper 8.6 2.6 1.3 6.8% 22.5% .299 106 94 0.3 Kent Tekulve
Daniel Coulombe 10.4 3.7 1.2 9.7% 27.0% .302 108 93 0.3 Javier Lopez
Andrew Vasquez 10.3 6.5 0.7 15.8% 25.0% .299 103 98 0.3 Clay Bryant
Edwar Colina 7.5 5.0 1.4 12.2% 18.3% .299 83 121 0.3 Jim Clancy
Fernando Romero 8.4 4.4 0.9 11.0% 21.0% .302 101 99 0.3 Tommie Sisk
Gabriel Moya 8.7 3.8 1.5 9.5% 22.1% .295 92 108 0.3 Pat Clements
Jorge Alcala 7.8 4.6 1.4 11.3% 19.0% .305 83 120 0.2 Tim Byron
Preston Guilmet 9.5 2.7 1.7 7.1% 24.6% .304 94 107 0.2 Gil Heredia
Sergio Romo 9.5 2.8 1.6 7.4% 24.9% .292 102 98 0.2 Mike Timlin
Andro Cutura 5.5 3.6 1.3 8.9% 13.5% .302 83 120 0.2 Bill Swift
Tyler Clippard 10.4 3.3 1.6 8.6% 27.2% .279 100 100 0.2 Jim Corsi
DJ Baxendale 7.1 3.5 1.5 8.8% 17.6% .304 85 117 0.2 Milo Candini
Jeremy Bleich 7.6 3.3 1.2 8.2% 19.0% .308 95 106 0.2 Fred Gladding
Melvi Acosta 5.9 4.3 1.2 10.4% 14.3% .303 84 118 0.1 Don Carrithers
Ian Krol 9.8 4.4 1.2 10.9% 24.5% .304 98 102 0.1 Tippy Martinez
Jonathan Cheshire 5.9 3.0 1.1 7.7% 14.8% .299 97 103 0.1 Pedro Borbon
Anthony Vizcaya 8.3 4.9 1.3 12.0% 20.4% .297 91 109 0.1 Joe Hudson
Ryan Garton 8.8 4.8 1.2 11.9% 21.9% .302 93 107 0.1 Ted Abernathy
Tom Hackimer 8.5 6.3 0.9 15.1% 20.6% .297 95 105 0.0 Newt Kimball
Sam Clay 7.7 6.7 0.8 15.8% 18.3% .300 87 115 0.0 Brian Adams
Jake Reed 9.0 4.6 1.2 11.5% 22.6% .301 92 109 0.0 Sean Green
Caleb Thielbar 8.2 2.4 1.6 6.2% 21.2% .297 94 106 0.0 Tom Burgmeier
Ryan Mason 6.9 3.5 1.3 8.8% 17.2% .302 92 109 -0.1 Bill Castro
Ryan O’Rourke 9.8 6.2 1.2 15.0% 23.8% .301 89 112 -0.1 Marshall Bridges
Brandon Barnes 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.9% 5.9% .286 61 165 -0.1 Bob Miller
Cody Allen 10.6 5.1 1.7 12.8% 26.5% .288 87 114 -0.2 Craig McMurtry
Jovani Moran 10.7 7.3 1.3 17.3% 25.5% .293 86 116 -0.2 Grant Jackson
Mitch Horacek 8.7 5.8 1.4 13.8% 20.7% .305 87 114 -0.1 Tom Doyle
Hector Lujan 6.9 3.3 1.9 8.1% 17.1% .298 82 123 -0.5 Dick Coffman
Tyler Watson 6.8 4.1 1.9 9.9% 16.4% .304 73 136 -0.6 Brian Henderson
Chase De Jong 5.9 3.9 2.2 9.4% 14.0% .303 66 151 -1.3 Pat Ahearne

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.


2020 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

Any lineup with a healthy Mike Trout will be hard-pressed to be terrible, and the Angels are no exception. During his career, Los Angeles has never ranked worse than 20th in position player WAR. Trout once again gets the Mickey Mantle top comp (his comp usually alternates between Mantle and Willie Mays). There are a lot of corner outfielders on Trout’s comp list because you run out of marginally comparable center fielders fairly quickly, another fact that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Adding Anthony Rendon is a huge deal, giving the team a legitimate superstar to pair with Trout for the time being. Even baking in Trout’s injury risk, ZiPS’ 11.8 combined WAR projection for Troutdon Angels would have ranked 20th among teams in 2019 and 23rd in each of the two prior seasons. Once you have Trout and Rendon, you can build an average-or-slightly-better offense by just finding a horde of below-average players who are legitimate major leaguers to put around them. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

The foundation of Atlanta’s offense consists of Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Ozzie Albies. There’s little to worry about with this trio, short of the usual concerns about injuries. Albies and Acuña are still absurdly young, and the question isn’t whether they’ll play worse than in 2019, but just how much they’ll continue to grow. People tend to overrate the growth curves of young phenoms. Just because a guy hits 40 homers at 20 doesn’t mean he’ll 60 at age 27, though I do think Acuña will get his 40/40 year in 2020. While there’s always room for improvement, more typically, players who are great very quickly have limited additional upside. If we examined the greatest hitting phenoms in history — Mike Trout, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline, Mel Ott — we’d find they really didn’t grow as hitters after their early 20s. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

That ZiPS gives the Yankees such a robust projection is hardly surprising. This is a team, after all, that won 103 games in 2019 despite missing most of their starting lineup, their ace pitcher, and a top reliever for large chunks of the season.

It’s unlikely the Yankees are going to win 110 games in this year. While the team did an excellent job furnishing Plans B through Z, players like Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela likely performed at what might be thought to be the reasonable high-end of their expectations. Both project to be valuable in 2020, but not quite as spicy as they were in last season. Tauchman’s defensive projection remains quite aggressive, as the probability-based measure that ZiPS uses for minor league defense was a fan of Tock’s fielding, projecting him at around 10 runs a year as a center fielder in the minors. If only the Rockies could find a player like that! Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

The Detroit Tigers will continue to struggle to score runs. I don’t mean in the “occasionally getting shut out by the Orioles” sense, but more like when you’re watching Tigers games, you should channel flip when they’re at the plate rather than during the commercials. What makes this worse isn’t that they’re just awful offensively, but that there’s really almost no source of potential upside outside of Jeimer Candelario.

Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are both legitimate major leaguers, but in this offense, they’re practically the centerpieces, and the most the Tigers can really hope for is that they’re good enough to flip for a prospect in July. Normally, I’d rather see lottery tickets instead of fill-in veterans since the offense will be absolutely wretched under any circumstances, but Detroit doesn’t really even have many of those types either. Nor have the Tigers done any sweeps of minor league free agency to find any; it’s been an extraordinarily quiet winter in the Motor City.

It’s kind of sad to see Miguel Cabrera with a negative number, but his power was non-existent last year and it’s hard to have value at designated hitter when your isolated power is the same as Hanser Alberto’s. Cabrera blasted the team’s lineup for his lack of power in 2019, but the truth is that Cabrera just isn’t a good hitter any longer. One of the most dangerous fastball hitters in baseball at one point, Cabrera only had an xSLG of .600 against fastballs in what Statcast calls the “heart” of the strike zone. That sounds like a big number, but the league as a whole was at .615. That number was .928 for Cabrera as recently as 2016, and at 17% of pitches thrown in the heart of the zone last year, pitchers gave him more fastballs down the middle than ever before in his career. He just can’t do much with them these days. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

Cincinnati’s 2020 offense will likely prove to be an interesting challenge for second-year manager David Bell. There’s the potential for a good offense here, but there’s an equal number of scenarios in which the team simply fails to score runs. Outside of Eugenio Suárez, the incumbent third baseman who I’m still amazed was purloined for Alfredo Simon, practically every player in the lineup has a real upside but also, significant questions about a major aspect of their game.

Does Joey Votto have another comeback season left in him? Votto has had downswings before, but the swoons were never anywhere near as deep his .261/.357/.411 line in 2019. 2020 will also be his age-36 season, which isn’t exactly a point in a career where you see many players come roaring back after a collapse. ZiPS does forecast a moderate 2020 recovery, but Votto the Star may be permanently in the rear-view mirror.

The outfield is a particularly devious puzzle to solve as rather than having two or three outfielders who are head-and-shoulders above the rest, the team has a large collection of average-ish players with wildly varying skillsets. They’re a bit like a giant vat of Legos in which the Star Wars set, the Raiders of the Lost Ark set, and the Requiem for a Dream set have all been tossed together, with some scattered Erector parts thrown in; you’re just trying to build a nice little house but keep finding lightsabers and fedoras. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

There’s been quite a bit of turnover in the Brewers’ starting lineup, but the team has avoided opening any serious holes.

ZiPS was a fan of Orlando Arcia, but it’s hard to avoid the fact that he’s backslid developmentally at ages when he should have been breaking out. Even worse than not improving offensively, Arcia is probably a worse hitter than he was two years ago. Add to that that his glove hasn’t matched up to his minor league reputation, and good on the Brewers for seemingly moving on to Luis Urías, who ought to be a significant improvement. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

Don’t look away in cringing horror; the pitching projections are worse!

ZiPS actually projects every position to be above replacement level, which is something. If you’re a skeptic, you might just say that’s only because Trey Mancini is projected to get playing time at first and in right field, and while that’s accurate, can’t you just be nice for a few minutes?

You could probably call the Austin Hays‘ forecast a pleasant one, though obviously it’s not quite on the level of his .309/.373/.574 line from his 21-game stint with the parent club. Hays was clearly overmatched in his initial cup of joe in the majors in 2017, but the Orioles also promoted him very aggressively that season and he was never the sort of prospect you’d expect to skip Triple-A without issues. There’s also the possibility that his adequate line is underrating him; injuries create a lot of uncertainty and his 2018 season and much of his 2019 were marred by ankle and thumb injuries. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

Batters

Let’s get the garbage receptacle in the room out of the way: there are no adjustments for sign-stealing related shenanigans baked into ZiPS. The simple truth is that the data to do so doesn’t really exist, and any adjustments made for an unknown effect on unknown players for an unknown amount of time would lack any precision. It’s one of those unknowables floating around in the aether that makes up part of the error bars.

Houston’s front-end offensive talent remains an absolute battering ram. The great players are, well, great, and there are few holes in the lineup, though there will be less offense behind the plate in 2020, and Gurriel’s age means he’s always a cliff-diving risk in any given season. Read the rest of this entry »


2020 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

They took a winding road to get there, but the Mets’ core offensive talent is all on the 25-man, all still under 30, and generally speaking, are all free from odd playing time restrictions once due to the presence of inferior veterans at their same positions. Jake Marisnick will likely get a lot of time in center, but given that Brandon Nimmo is coming off of injury, having Marisnick on the roster is smart; he’s a capable fourth outfielder and not famous enough or well paid enough that a healthy Nimmo won’t be able to wrest away the lion’s share of the playing time.

ZiPS didn’t like what it saw in Robinson Canó’s 2019; he now projects as one of the team’s weaker players, but there isn’t an obvious replacement at the moment. Jed Lowrie is still hanging around, at least until the Mets convince someone to take his contract (which is unlikely given the plethora of 1.5 WAR middle infielders still available), but his health is still iffy and he’d have to be clearly better to take Canó’s job. I don’t believe he is. Sadly, Canó no longer projects to finish with 3000 hits, though he’s likely already wrapped up his Hall of Fame candidacy in any case.

Pitchers

A Jacob deGromNoah SyndergaardMarcus Stroman top of the rotation is a top three that can compete with that of any team in the majors. I’m not sure if the Mets have truly given up their strange dream to trade Thor, but as of right now, he’s a Met and that’s where he’s being projected. The Mets have at least six major league-caliber starters with the additions of Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. The conventional wisdom is that Steven Matz is the odd man out one or the other, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. Now, Matz may very well be traded this winter, but I’m not sure it’s a given that he’s the one sent to the bullpen if he’s still a Met in April. I know Wacha joined the team with the intention of being a starter, but he’s also coming off injuries and a $3 million salary typically isn’t enough to have much leverage over what position you actually play.

The best news here is that ZiPS is projecting bounce-back seasons for Edwin Díaz and Jeurys Familia. Diaz looked awful in 2019, but who doesn’t look awful when allowing 2.33 HR/9 and a .377 BABIP? Based on the advanced hit data, ZiPS doesn’t think Díaz ought to have fared this poorly in either stat last season. After Díaz, it’s not the flashiest bunch, but the computer thinks they’ll far exceed their miserable 0.7 WAR from 2019, which was 24th in baseball and last among the contending teams.

Prospects

One problem for the Mets is that they don’t have a lot of short-term depth in the upper minors as injury replacements. That’s partially why they’ve been a Who’s Who of washed up outfielders at Triple-A the last few years. ZiPS doesn’t think Luis Guillorme will do much to force a change at second base, and doesn’t believe Andrés Giménez’s bat is quite ready, despite a glove that projects as above-average. Ronny Mauricio is farther off, and the computer doesn’t really have much to say about him at this point, but no matter what, it’s unlikely he shoots up to the majors in 2020. Of course, I said that about Juan Soto once!

The one prospect ZiPS is excited about in the short-term is David Peterson, the big lefty sinkerballer drafted in the first round in 2017. ZiPS thinks that Peterson is already in the same tier as Wacha or Porcello, but given that the Mets are likely contenders in 2020, it would be reasonable to expect the team to go with their most established players, rather than have Peterson adjust to the majors in games that matter. Like Porcello and Stroman, Peterson’s numbers are likely to be sensitive to the Mets infield defense, which will improve by having less of J.D. Davis in it.

He’s not really a prospect, but the Mets still seem inclined to let Tim Tebow get time in the upper minors for some reason, and they haven’t slammed the door on the possibility of actually giving him some kind of playing time in the majors. zDEF thinks that Tebow has improved defensively — my system estimated him at a ludicrously awful -25 runs in left field in 2017, the worst in my database — but he’s never done enough offensively to doubt the scouts who think he doesn’t have the skillset to contribute at the major league level. At least the Mets don’t have a significant prospect above Single-A for him to block!

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Pete Alonso R 25 1B 620 539 85 137 27 2 43 108 62 162 1 2
Jeff McNeil L 28 3B 573 519 77 152 32 4 19 71 35 73 7 4
Michael Conforto L 27 RF 607 516 83 132 27 1 31 96 78 148 6 3
Amed Rosario R 24 SS 638 598 76 164 28 9 14 64 31 118 21 10
Brandon Nimmo L 27 CF 431 355 57 84 18 4 13 45 63 116 5 3
Wilson Ramos R 32 C 460 421 42 115 19 0 14 68 34 69 1 0
Todd Frazier R 34 3B 504 444 60 101 18 1 20 72 47 113 4 4
Jed Lowrie B 36 2B 506 452 53 110 24 1 13 56 49 99 0 0
J.D. Davis R 27 LF 497 452 62 120 24 1 21 65 38 122 3 1
Rene Rivera R 36 C 325 297 31 64 8 0 14 44 21 101 0 0
Yoenis Cespedes R 34 LF 255 230 32 59 11 1 13 41 21 61 1 0
Robinson Cano L 37 2B 377 346 40 90 23 0 9 39 25 59 0 0
Joe Panik L 29 2B 497 443 54 113 21 3 7 46 43 47 4 2
Jake Marisnick R 29 CF 311 285 45 64 15 2 11 33 17 90 10 4
Luis Guillorme L 25 2B 431 381 44 93 15 1 5 31 41 69 3 3
Dominic Smith L 25 LF 503 462 61 117 24 1 16 58 36 117 2 2
Max Moroff B 27 SS 321 271 39 52 10 1 9 39 45 102 4 2
Juan Lagares R 31 CF 270 247 33 56 11 2 4 22 17 64 5 2
Andres Gimenez L 21 SS 508 463 49 101 20 5 9 41 24 129 23 16
Jarrett Parker L 31 RF 371 325 44 66 12 1 15 46 42 133 2 2
David Rodriguez R 24 C 342 314 31 63 13 2 6 30 21 95 3 2
Austin Bossart R 26 C 267 240 23 45 9 0 5 21 21 74 1 0
Ruben Tejada R 30 3B 344 313 35 72 16 1 4 27 21 62 2 2
Danny Espinosa B 33 SS 453 407 45 78 14 0 12 47 32 140 9 3
Ali Sanchez R 23 C 373 348 33 76 16 1 4 27 21 70 2 2
Tomas Nido R 26 C 311 293 27 64 14 1 7 33 13 70 0 0
Patrick Mazeika L 26 C 426 384 42 83 17 1 10 42 33 89 1 0
Carlos Gómez R 34 CF 329 294 32 61 13 1 9 32 20 92 10 5
Gavin Cecchini R 26 2B 389 357 39 83 15 1 6 32 27 79 4 3
Aaron Altherr R 29 RF 318 281 36 57 13 2 9 40 29 92 5 3
Rymer Liriano R 29 RF 366 324 40 63 9 1 12 38 36 135 7 4
Will Toffey L 25 3B 335 291 33 54 13 1 5 24 41 105 3 2
Arismendy Alcantara B 28 LF 392 360 45 79 14 5 12 44 28 116 14 4
Barrett Barnes R 28 RF 370 325 37 61 14 1 7 33 33 120 4 3
Quinn Brodey L 24 CF 474 435 42 87 18 3 9 41 31 148 9 4
Braxton Lee L 26 CF 458 412 41 91 14 2 3 28 35 113 8 7
Luis Carpio R 22 2B 439 400 40 83 17 1 8 35 33 95 4 11
Sam Haggerty B 26 2B 406 355 40 68 14 5 4 26 43 127 18 6
Rajai Davis R 39 CF 307 285 33 61 7 2 5 21 12 73 14 6
Jeremy Vasquez L 23 1B 558 502 51 113 22 3 7 45 48 119 2 3
Austin Jackson R 33 CF 272 248 26 59 13 1 3 23 21 77 2 2
Carlos Cortes L 23 2B 503 457 49 99 18 4 9 46 36 100 4 5
Travis Taijeron R 31 1B 450 392 49 73 18 2 16 51 46 183 2 2
Michael Paez R 25 2B 431 388 39 78 16 1 7 33 30 100 3 6
Gregor Blanco L 36 RF 352 315 37 67 10 3 6 25 32 90 9 4
Wagner Lagrange R 24 LF 407 378 36 82 16 3 5 31 22 91 2 3
Edgardo Fermin R 22 2B 379 353 32 64 13 5 6 31 17 126 8 6
David Thompson R 26 1B 464 425 44 87 20 1 9 41 27 123 7 3
Blake Tiberi L 25 3B 486 437 46 88 18 1 4 29 42 121 9 4
Tim Tebow L 32 LF 328 303 25 49 10 1 4 20 19 138 2 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Pete Alonso .254 .347 .551 139 .297 .281 6.9 1 4.1 Justin Morneau
Jeff McNeil .293 .355 .480 125 .187 .311 6.5 2 4.0 Carney Lansford
Michael Conforto .256 .361 .492 130 .236 .300 6.4 2 3.8 Austin Kearns
Amed Rosario .274 .313 .421 98 .147 .322 4.9 -3 2.3 Garry Templeton
Brandon Nimmo .237 .365 .420 114 .183 .314 5.4 -4 2.0 Ron Roenicke
Wilson Ramos .273 .328 .418 102 .145 .299 5.1 -6 1.6 Eddie Taubensee
Todd Frazier .227 .312 .408 94 .180 .260 4.3 0 1.4 Clete Boyer
Jed Lowrie .243 .318 .387 91 .144 .285 4.4 -1 1.4 Todd Zeile
J.D. Davis .265 .324 .462 111 .197 .320 5.5 -6 1.3 Mark Quinn
Rene Rivera .215 .275 .384 77 .168 .275 3.6 6 1.1 Terry Kennedy
Yoenis Cespedes .257 .322 .483 115 .226 .295 5.7 1 1.1 Jim Rice
Robinson Cano .260 .316 .405 95 .145 .291 4.7 -1 1.0 Cal Ripken
Joe Panik .255 .323 .363 87 .108 .272 4.3 -1 1.0 Alex Cora
Jake Marisnick .225 .282 .407 85 .182 .288 4.1 4 1.0 Brad Snyder
Luis Guillorme .244 .319 .328 78 .084 .287 3.7 2 0.8 Scott Campbell
Dominic Smith .253 .310 .413 95 .160 .307 4.6 -2 0.7 Mark Quinn
Max Moroff .192 .310 .336 77 .144 .269 3.5 -1 0.6 Lauro Felix
Juan Lagares .227 .284 .336 68 .109 .291 3.4 6 0.5 Tony Scott
Andres Gimenez .218 .273 .341 66 .123 .283 3.0 4 0.4 Juan Uribe
Jarrett Parker .203 .299 .385 85 .182 .288 3.8 0 0.2 Alan Zinter
David Rodriguez .201 .255 .312 54 .111 .268 2.7 6 0.2 Jon Aceves
Austin Bossart .188 .259 .288 49 .100 .248 2.5 5 0.2 Matt Garrick
Ruben Tejada .230 .289 .326 68 .096 .275 3.2 3 0.2 Mike Tyson
Danny Espinosa .192 .264 .314 57 .123 .259 2.8 5 0.1 Rabbit Warstler
Ali Sanchez .218 .265 .305 55 .086 .263 2.7 5 0.1 Tom Wieghaus
Tomas Nido .218 .252 .345 61 .126 .264 3.0 1 0.0 Jeff Winchester
Patrick Mazeika .216 .286 .344 71 .128 .256 3.4 -7 -0.1 Dave Van Gorder
Carlos Gomez .207 .281 .350 71 .143 .269 3.4 -3 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Gavin Cecchini .232 .287 .331 68 .098 .283 3.3 -2 -0.3 Javier Fierro
Aaron Altherr .203 .289 .359 76 .157 .267 3.5 -1 -0.3 Nate Murphy
Rymer Liriano .194 .279 .340 68 .145 .288 3.1 2 -0.3 Jed Hansen
Will Toffey .186 .290 .289 59 .103 .271 2.7 0 -0.4 Ronald Bourquin
Arismendy Alcantara .219 .276 .386 78 .167 .289 3.9 -3 -0.4 Kenny Kelly
Barrett Barnes .188 .279 .302 59 .114 .273 2.7 4 -0.5 Alberto Concepcion
Quinn Brodey .200 .256 .317 55 .117 .281 2.8 4 -0.5 Justin Justice
Braxton Lee .221 .284 .286 57 .066 .297 2.7 2 -0.6 Vernon Thomas
Luis Carpio .208 .269 .315 59 .108 .253 2.4 3 -0.6 Vicente Garcia
Sam Haggerty .192 .283 .293 58 .101 .286 2.9 -3 -0.6 Juan Bell
Rajai Davis .214 .257 .305 53 .091 .271 2.8 0 -0.6 Lou Brock
Jeremy Vasquez .225 .296 .323 69 .098 .282 3.2 3 -0.6 Andy Barkett
Austin Jackson .238 .298 .335 73 .097 .333 3.4 -7 -0.7 Steve Henderson
Carlos Cortes .217 .279 .333 66 .116 .259 3.1 -4 -0.7 Javier Colina
Travis Taijeron .186 .284 .365 76 .179 .295 3.4 -4 -0.7 Alan Zinter
Michael Paez .201 .266 .302 55 .101 .253 2.5 -1 -1.0 Ryan Stegall
Gregor Blanco .213 .286 .321 65 .108 .279 3.2 -6 -1.1 Michael Tucker
Wagner Lagrange .217 .264 .315 57 .098 .273 2.8 0 -1.2 Roberto Alvarez
Edgardo Fermin .181 .225 .297 41 .116 .262 2.1 2 -1.3 Preston Mattingly
David Thompson .205 .261 .320 58 .115 .266 2.9 2 -1.3 Edward Lowery
Blake Tiberi .201 .274 .275 51 .073 .269 2.6 -6 -1.6 Ryan Stegall
Tim Tebow .162 .220 .241 26 .079 .280 1.6 -9 -3.0 Frank Charles

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jacob deGrom R 32 12 6 2.88 29 29 184.3 150 59 21 42 223
Noah Syndergaard R 27 11 7 3.33 31 30 186.7 174 69 19 45 197
Marcus Stroman R 29 11 9 3.72 29 29 169.3 163 70 17 53 144
Steven Matz L 29 9 9 4.11 28 27 140.0 137 64 20 48 136
Rick Porcello R 31 12 12 4.29 29 29 167.7 169 80 28 41 152
David Peterson L 24 6 5 4.04 25 25 122.7 119 55 12 45 106
Edwin Diaz R 26 5 3 2.98 69 0 66.3 47 22 9 22 105
Seth Lugo R 30 6 3 3.15 60 0 74.3 60 26 9 18 88
Michael Wacha R 28 6 7 4.42 25 22 118.0 119 58 17 47 106
Walker Lockett R 26 6 7 4.55 24 20 114.7 123 58 17 27 83
Chris Flexen R 25 6 6 4.41 31 16 96.0 95 47 15 35 94
Stephen Gonsalves L 25 7 8 4.57 24 21 104.3 97 53 12 59 100
Ervin Santana R 37 6 7 4.64 19 19 114.3 111 59 19 34 89
Drew Gagnon R 30 6 7 4.64 30 16 110.7 113 57 17 36 96
Jeurys Familia R 30 4 3 3.66 67 0 64.0 56 26 4 36 68
Justin Wilson L 32 4 3 3.50 54 0 46.3 37 18 5 24 59
Daniel Zamora L 27 2 2 3.57 47 0 45.3 39 18 5 18 52
Brad Brach R 34 4 4 3.74 56 0 55.3 48 23 5 26 59
Franklyn Kilome R 25 4 5 4.81 19 19 91.7 92 49 9 55 70
Joe Cavallaro R 24 6 7 4.69 31 13 94.0 93 49 11 52 80
Chris Mazza R 30 4 5 4.80 25 16 101.3 109 54 15 35 74
Tylor Megill R 24 6 7 4.64 22 11 66.0 61 34 10 36 75
Luis Avilan L 30 3 2 3.80 56 0 42.7 39 18 4 18 44
Robert Gsellman R 26 3 3 4.02 62 0 71.7 69 32 8 26 65
Marcel Renteria R 25 3 3 4.41 33 4 65.3 63 32 6 36 57
Donnie Hart L 29 3 3 3.98 53 0 54.3 55 24 5 18 38
Yeizo Campos R 24 3 3 4.50 26 4 56.0 56 28 8 20 49
Corey Taylor R 27 3 3 4.20 34 1 49.3 50 23 5 16 36
Corey Oswalt R 26 6 8 5.03 22 20 102.0 107 57 19 33 88
Mickey Jannis R 32 6 8 5.10 21 20 118.3 129 67 17 46 78
Adonis Uceta R 26 4 4 4.44 35 2 52.7 51 26 6 26 48
Austin McGeorge R 25 2 2 4.59 26 3 49.0 50 25 7 21 42
Thomas Szapucki L 24 2 2 5.07 20 17 55.0 53 31 9 33 54
Brooks Pounders R 29 3 3 4.50 43 2 58.0 57 29 10 22 61
Tim Peterson R 29 3 4 4.34 48 0 58.0 56 28 10 18 58
Paul Sewald R 30 4 4 4.36 56 0 66.0 64 32 11 20 69
Louis Coleman R 34 2 2 4.43 41 0 40.7 37 20 5 23 39
Jacob Rhame R 27 3 3 4.41 44 0 49.0 46 24 9 19 55
Chasen Shreve L 29 3 3 4.39 54 0 55.3 48 27 9 28 67
Zach Lee R 28 6 8 5.19 23 21 118.0 133 68 20 37 81
Drew Smith R 26 3 3 4.43 37 0 44.7 44 22 5 20 37
Luc Rennie R 26 6 9 5.22 23 22 110.3 124 64 17 46 70
Sean Burnett L 37 1 1 5.01 24 0 23.3 25 13 3 10 17
AJ Ramos R 33 2 2 4.81 37 0 33.7 30 18 5 22 38
Ryley Gilliam R 23 2 3 4.82 29 0 37.3 32 20 6 25 49
Tommy Wilson R 24 6 8 5.38 21 20 100.3 109 60 18 40 77
Harol Gonzalez R 25 7 9 5.89 24 23 122.3 145 80 24 46 85
Tony Dibrell R 24 7 11 5.34 25 23 116.3 118 69 17 76 99
Joe Zanghi R 25 2 3 4.80 38 1 60.0 60 32 7 35 48
Jake Simon L 23 1 1 5.24 24 3 44.7 44 26 6 32 42
Stephen Villines R 24 2 2 4.69 45 0 63.3 62 33 10 27 59
Ryder Ryan R 25 2 3 5.04 32 1 44.7 44 25 6 27 41
Pedro Payano R 25 5 8 5.40 25 22 108.3 112 65 17 63 89
Tyler Bashlor R 27 3 4 4.85 54 0 55.7 51 30 8 33 57
Matt Blackham R 27 4 5 4.93 40 0 49.3 43 27 7 35 59
Nick Rumbelow R 28 2 2 5.25 27 0 36.0 37 21 6 16 31
Darwin Ramos R 24 3 4 4.98 42 1 65.0 66 36 9 35 53
Stephen Nogosek R 25 2 3 5.37 43 0 52.0 51 31 9 34 53
Christian James R 22 5 8 5.74 23 20 102.0 119 65 15 54 58

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jacob deGrom 10.9 2.1 1.0 5.7% 30.2% .288 140 72 2.93 4.7 Greg Maddux
Noah Syndergaard 9.5 2.2 0.9 5.8% 25.5% .306 121 83 3.12 3.8 Rick Reuschel
Marcus Stroman 7.7 2.8 0.9 7.4% 20.1% .293 108 92 3.72 2.7 Willard Nixon
Steven Matz 8.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.6% .299 98 102 4.12 1.6 Scott Karl
Rick Porcello 8.2 2.2 1.5 5.8% 21.5% .294 94 107 4.27 1.6 Ron Reed
David Peterson 7.8 3.3 0.9 8.5% 20.0% .297 100 100 3.82 1.5 Jim O’Toole
Edwin Diaz 14.2 3.0 1.2 8.2% 39.0% .295 135 74 2.77 1.2 Jose Valverde
Seth Lugo 10.7 2.2 1.1 6.0% 29.4% .282 128 78 3.11 1.1 Rick Camp
Michael Wacha 8.1 3.6 1.3 9.1% 20.6% .298 91 110 4.45 0.9 Jim Hannan
Walker Lockett 6.5 2.1 1.3 5.5% 16.9% .296 88 113 4.37 0.7 Lary Sorensen
Chris Flexen 8.8 3.3 1.4 8.4% 22.6% .300 91 109 4.35 0.7 Dan Smith
Stephen Gonsalves 8.6 5.1 1.0 12.6% 21.4% .292 88 114 4.45 0.7 Ryan Brewer
Ervin Santana 7.0 2.7 1.5 7.0% 18.4% .273 87 115 4.68 0.6 Jim Perry
Drew Gagnon 7.8 2.9 1.4 7.5% 20.0% .296 87 115 4.42 0.5 John Doherty
Jeurys Familia 9.6 5.1 0.6 12.8% 24.1% .302 110 91 3.56 0.5 Sean Green
Justin Wilson 11.5 4.7 1.0 12.1% 29.8% .294 115 87 3.59 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Daniel Zamora 10.3 3.6 1.0 9.3% 26.9% .296 113 89 3.51 0.4 Shane Rawley
Brad Brach 9.6 4.2 0.8 11.0% 25.0% .295 108 93 3.63 0.4 Ted Abernathy
Franklyn Kilome 6.9 5.4 0.9 13.1% 16.7% .295 84 120 4.73 0.4 Rick Berg
Joe Cavallaro 7.7 5.0 1.1 12.2% 18.8% .296 86 117 4.66 0.3 Walt Masterson
Chris Mazza 6.6 3.1 1.3 7.8% 16.6% .297 84 119 4.68 0.3 Ownie Carroll
Tylor Megill 10.2 4.9 1.4 12.2% 25.4% .300 87 115 4.51 0.3 Mike Lumley
Luis Avilan 9.3 3.8 0.8 9.8% 23.9% .302 106 94 3.60 0.2 Juan Agosto
Robert Gsellman 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 21.0% .296 100 100 3.91 0.2 Adrian Devine
Marcel Renteria 7.9 5.0 0.8 12.2% 19.4% .298 91 110 4.28 0.2 Walt Masterson
Donnie Hart 6.3 3.0 0.8 7.7% 16.2% .292 101 99 3.97 0.2 Leo Kiely
Yeizo Campos 7.9 3.2 1.3 8.2% 20.2% .294 89 112 4.36 0.2 Jon George
Corey Taylor 6.6 2.9 0.9 7.5% 17.0% .294 96 104 4.01 0.1 Casey Cox
Corey Oswalt 7.8 2.9 1.7 7.4% 19.8% .294 80 125 4.85 0.1 Bobby Keppel
Mickey Jannis 5.9 3.5 1.3 8.7% 14.8% .295 79 127 4.90 0.1 Charlie Robertson
Adonis Uceta 8.2 4.4 1.0 11.1% 20.5% .298 91 110 4.32 0.0 Casey Daigle
Austin McGeorge 7.7 3.9 1.3 9.7% 19.4% .299 88 114 4.61 0.0 Bob Miller
Thomas Szapucki 8.8 5.4 1.5 13.2% 21.6% .291 79 126 5.14 0.0 Todd James
Brooks Pounders 9.5 3.4 1.6 8.7% 24.2% .301 89 112 4.46 0.0 Marc Valdes
Tim Peterson 9.0 2.8 1.6 7.3% 23.5% .291 93 108 4.35 0.0 Brian Schmack
Paul Sewald 9.4 2.7 1.5 7.1% 24.6% .298 92 108 4.16 -0.1 Jay Tessmer
Louis Coleman 8.6 5.1 1.1 12.6% 21.4% .286 91 110 4.56 -0.1 Turk Lown
Jacob Rhame 10.1 3.5 1.7 9.0% 26.1% .294 91 110 4.49 -0.1 Mark Brown
Chasen Shreve 10.9 4.6 1.5 11.6% 27.8% .289 92 109 4.39 -0.1 Scott Wiegandt
Zach Lee 6.2 2.8 1.5 7.1% 15.5% .300 78 129 4.95 -0.1 Pat Ahearne
Drew Smith 7.5 4.0 1.0 10.1% 18.7% .293 91 110 4.32 -0.1 Newt Kimball
Luc Rennie 5.7 3.8 1.4 9.2% 14.1% .298 77 130 5.16 -0.1 Jake Joseph
Sean Burnett 6.6 3.9 1.2 9.6% 16.3% .301 80 125 4.68 -0.2 Darold Knowles
AJ Ramos 10.2 5.9 1.3 14.5% 25.0% .291 84 120 4.81 -0.2 Moe Burtschy
Ryley Gilliam 11.8 6.0 1.4 14.7% 28.8% .299 83 120 4.65 -0.2 Jeff Smith
Tommy Wilson 6.9 3.6 1.6 8.9% 17.2% .296 75 134 5.17 -0.3 Preston Larrison
Harol Gonzalez 6.3 3.4 1.8 8.3% 15.3% .308 76 132 5.47 -0.3 Nate Cornejo
Tony Dibrell 7.7 5.9 1.3 14.0% 18.3% .294 75 133 5.34 -0.3 Rick Berg
Joe Zanghi 7.2 5.3 1.1 12.8% 17.5% .293 84 119 4.85 -0.3 Lloyd Allen
Jake Simon 8.5 6.4 1.2 15.2% 20.0% .299 77 130 5.19 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Stephen Villines 8.4 3.8 1.4 9.7% 21.1% .291 86 116 4.65 -0.3 Dan Reichert
Ryder Ryan 8.3 5.4 1.2 13.2% 20.0% .297 80 125 4.90 -0.3 Cuddles Marshall
Pedro Payano 7.4 5.2 1.4 12.7% 17.9% .294 75 134 5.32 -0.3 Edwin Morel
Tyler Bashlor 9.2 5.3 1.3 13.2% 22.8% .289 83 120 4.78 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Matt Blackham 10.8 6.4 1.3 15.5% 26.1% .295 82 122 4.76 -0.4 Terry Bross
Nick Rumbelow 7.8 4.0 1.5 10.0% 19.4% .295 77 130 4.96 -0.4 Tom Dukes
Darwin Ramos 7.3 4.8 1.2 11.9% 18.0% .294 81 124 4.96 -0.5 Lloyd Allen
Stephen Nogosek 9.2 5.9 1.6 14.2% 22.1% .298 75 133 5.35 -0.7 Rick Greene
Christian James 5.1 4.8 1.3 11.3% 12.2% .302 70 142 5.54 -0.7 Jake Joseph

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.