Archive for 2026 Postseason

MILWAUKEE — The 2026 Brewers aren’t your typical postseason buzzsaw. They’ve won with defense and relief pitching, and their eight postseason victories have come by a combined 13 runs. Half of those games ended either with a Milwaukee walk-off hit, or with the opponent’s tying run on base. Every postseason game the Brewers have played was a one-run game in the sixth or later; they haven’t scored more than seven runs in a game since their 101st regular-season win.

But they are a buzzsaw, and in Game 1 of the World Series — Milwaukee’s first Fall Classic game in 44 years — into the blade went the Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers put two runs on the board in the top of the first, and they led the rest of the way, albeit not by much. Jacob Misiorowski allowed one run over five innings, tying the longest postseason outing of his career, and the Rays struggled to put a counterattack together until a furious but ill-fated ninth-inning rally.

Round 1 went to the home team, 3-2. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve heard the theory. Honestly, if you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve probably thought of the theory yourself. When a team eschews a regular starter and instead uses a string of relievers, surely one of those relievers is bound to be a little bit off. There are just so many of them. What, they’re all going to have it? C’mon, man. Be reasonable. And what happens as a result? Well, that reliever is going to give up a bunch of runs. You know, like pitchers do when they don’t have it. Obvious!

Hello, and welcome to another edition of Mathemadage. This time, we’re hot on the trail of what I like to call the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory. There isn’t one specific adage to point to here, but I’ve always wondered about this effect myself, and last week Other Ben (Lindbergh) forwarded me this tweet:

I hear this every bullpen game that the risk is law of averages says one of the relievers wont have it.

I have not seen any actual study anyone has done about this. Seems like it is just passed around as conventional wisdom.

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 3, 2026

That was a good enough excuse for me to dig in – like I said, I’ve had this on my mind for a while, and the playoffs are the perfect time for a deep dive. But before I started cracking open my spreadsheets and coding agents, I did a literature review, because I knew I couldn’t be the first person to have investigated this. Back in 2015, Henry Druschel found that starters had more “disaster” outings than relievers, though he didn’t delve into the stacking aspect of using multiple relievers in a single game. I also found former colleague Kevin Goldstein’s investigation into the subject, which focused on the Rays’ ability to avoid reliever blowups. But those didn’t settle the debate for me, so I pressed on. Read the rest of this entry »

For lack of a more G-rated way to put it, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt managed his ass off during the playoffs. Though let’s be clear up top, a lot of managing is not always a reflection of smart managing. The Guardians operated with their usual duct-taped-together lineup, but in an uncharacteristic break with their recent history, they had just two bona fide starters in Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. That gives us a boatload of managerial decisions to dissect across Vogt’s 11 postseason games, especially on the pitching side. So with the team having fallen just two wins short of reaching the World Series for the first time in a decade, I’m back to grade Vogt’s October performance.

As both Ben Clemens and I have mentioned before each of our previous manager report cards this postseason, I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say, “That was a great move because it worked,” or “That was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the results of their decisions as they’re making them. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring the outcome.

Lastly, before we get into the grades, I’ll also reiterate that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the skipper that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play. During the game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone. Read the rest of this entry »

There is an old saying that goes, how do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.

In baseball terms, how do you eat the two-time reigning champs with a $412 million payroll and steamroll into the World Series? One shrewd acquisition at a time.

Throughout the National League Championship Series, the ragtag Milwaukee Brewers played their most inspired ball of the season, taking down the almighty Los Angeles Dodgers in a series that marked a slight shift in National League power. The Brewers — forever subject to backhanded compliments about being better than the sum of their parts, or great for a small market team — are also just immensely talented. There’s no two ways about it. A team doesn’t progress this deep into the postseason without having some dogs that can put the barrel on the ball and prevent the other team from doing the same. But if you were to stop a random person on the street and ask them if they know who Shohei Ohtani is, it’s fairly likely they could tell you he’s a baseball player, or that they’ve at least heard the name. If you asked the same thing about Jake Bauers, they might furrow their brow and wonder aloud if that’s someone they went to high school with. Quite honestly, showing them a photo of Bauers might only reinforce the idea that he’s a long lost childhood classmate, what with his everyman appearance and Saved by the Bell sounding name. What you really need to do to jog the memory is play them a sound, particularly this one of Bauers’ bat taking a large chunk out of the elephant.

Read the rest of this entry »

If grade schoolers have to come home with a report card, why shouldn’t big league managers? We at FanGraphs tend to veer towards egalitarianism, and if little Liam or Daenerys can be sent to bed without Roblox or whatever it is the kids like these days, then why can’t Big Stephen or Dodger Dave? That’s why every time a postseason manager is eliminated from contention, we run down their playoff performance and see who gets a Grape Job! sticker.

Ben Clemens already assessed the work of Will Venable and Aaron Boone, while Jon Becker broke down the October runs of Walt Weiss and Craig Stammen, as well as the losing managers from the Wild Card round. Today, it’s Dave Roberts’ turn.

Crafting these report cards can be an odd exercise. Major league managers simply don’t have as large an effect on a team’s on-field performance as, say, an NFL team’s head coach. Baseball is a game of player execution, and a manager’s job mostly comes down to making sure that the best players are on the lineup card and that everyone refrains from killing each other in August. But that doesn’t mean that managers have no effect on their team’s fortunes. Baseball is, by its very nature, a very coin-flippy, volatile game, where the fates of both teams hang on a knife’s edge. Small decisions can have a big impact. Last year, I gave Pat Murphy somewhere between an A- and a B+ overall. Let’s see how Roberts fares! Read the rest of this entry »

The American League Championship Series between the Rays and Guardians was a study in contrasts when it came to starting pitching, particularly as the series extended. Tampa Bay’s starters lasted five or more innings in all but one of the six games, with Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta combining for three starts of at least six innings; the former went seven innings and the latter 5 1/3 in the the final two games. Cleveland’s starters reached the five-inning mark just twice and never went deeper than that; over the final three games, the team’s starters — ace Parker Messick and reliever Shawn Armstrong, who was deputized to open Games 4 and 6 — totaled just four innings. Given that imbalance, it was hardly a surprise that the Rays rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win those three and take the series.

The World Series might present a similar contrast. The Rays and the Yankees are the only teams whose starters have averaged at least five innings per turn during this postseason, and Tampa Bay knocked off New York in a Division Series sweep earlier this month. Meanwhile, the Brewers are one of five teams whose starters have averaged less than four innings per turn; only twice did a Milwaukee starter even last five innings, with Logan Henderson reaching that mark in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres and Robert Gasser doing so in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Jacob Misiorowski — the likely NL Cy Young winner, who even before the playoffs had already exceeded his total workload from last year by more than 30 innings — burned through 88 pitches to complete four innings in his NLDS start and 94 to go 4 1/3 in his NLCS start. For the Brewers and Rays, those divergent approaches have worked. Tampa Bay went a combined 7-2 in the ALDS and ALCS; Milwaukee, 7-1 in the NLDS and NLCS.

After a season in which he ranked third in the AL in FIP (2.81) and WAR (5.0) and fourth in ERA (2.67), Rasmussen began his postseason by no-hitting the Yankees for 7 2/3 innings in the Division Series opener. In three starts totaling 21 innings, he’s delivered a 1.29 ERA and a 2.58 FIP. Peralta, who struggled during his four months as a Met before righting himself somewhat as a Ray following a deadline deal, has put up a 1.13 ERA and a 3.72 FIP in 16 innings as a starter, on top of which he added two-thirds of an inning out of the bullpen in ALCS Game 4; that cherry on top of his two strong starts helped him win series MVP honors. While their third and fourth starters, Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax, haven’t been as effective, the Rays’ postseason rotation ERA is good enough to crack the top 10 dating back to the start of division play in 1969:

Read the rest of this entry »

Tomorrow night, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off the 2026 World Series. They’ll both deploy unhittable aces to open the series, and they’ll both back them with a squad made up of speedsters, platoonable hitters, a young superstar, and relievers as far as the eye can see. To a first approximation, these teams might as well be a mirror image of each other. They’re small-budget operations that rely heavily on pitching, speed, and defense. They put the ball in play. They wreak havoc on the basepaths. They play indoors – at least some of the time, in Milwaukee’s case. But while the Rays and Brewers are superficially similar, key differences will have a lot to say about how this series turns out. So let’s take a look at where the equivalence ends, and how each team will try to use that to their advantage.

Pair of Aces

The Brewers and Rays each have an obvious leader in their respective rotations. Jacob Misiorowski and Drew Rasmussen are two of the best pitchers in baseball, and they’re both having career years. Misiorowski is a shoo-in for the National League Cy Young, and while Rasmussen probably won’t win the American League version, he just put up his sixth (!) straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA, posted over a career-high 172 innings. He’s found another gear in the playoffs — three starts, 21 innings pitched, and just three runs allowed. The Miz hasn’t looked quite so steady – two starts, 8 1/3 innings, three runs – but his 1.80 ERA and 2.17 FIP in the regular season were downright ludicrous. Read the rest of this entry »

The way people talk about Jacob Misiorowski bothers me a little. Yeah, he’s taller than almost any other starting pitcher and throws harder than literally any starting pitcher in history. He led all major league pitchers in WAR this year, and if he wins the NL Cy Young Award next month — as he’s almost universally expected to do — it will be a deserved victory.

But Miz didn’t lap the field or post paradigm-altering results. I can’t make a defensible case for Chris Sale or Cristopher Sánchez to win the Cy Young over Misiorowski, but I suspect the eventual vote total will not reflect how close the statistical margin was between Miz and his rivals.

In other words, this is an outstanding pitcher — maybe the best in the world at the moment, perhaps even a future Hall of Famer — but he’s not 1999 Pedro Martínez, or Victor Wembanyama with a curveball. This is a fairly inexperienced 24-year-old with real flaws in his game.

He can be got at. Read the rest of this entry »

The World Series — our annual signifier of another season smoked to its filter — is always a culmination of the sport’s beauty. Teams get rewarded for playing a winning brand of baseball all throughout October, managers are vindicated in all of the micro-decisions that got them there, and front offices can comfortably rest their heads at night knowing their systems and philosophies weren’t totally off base.

But more visible than all that — and the thing that gives the sport its humanity among so many numbers, figures, and entropy beyond the players’ control — is the heartwarming sight of a veteran finally getting a chance for his Ray Bourque moment. For the Tampa Bay Rays, who stand just four wins away from the franchise’s first title, that man is quite literally impossible to overlook. The circumference of his arms threatens a solar eclipse every time he raises them. His physical composition is probably best described in terms used to measure quartzite. He is Yandy Díaz, the 35-year-old igneous rock at the top of the Tampa Bay lineup, who, despite having all the hulking characteristics of a home run-mashing slugger, is also the best pure hitter in this World Series.

Díaz, who has hit safely in all but one of the Rays’ nine postseason games, is above average at nearly every element of hitting. He rarely swings and misses, which leads to very few strikeouts. In turn, he squares the ball at an 85th-percentile clip, and can do that while peppering it to right field. When he puts the ball in play, 29.9% of the time it’s going to the opposite field, a skill he shares with teammates Chandler Simpson and Jonathan Aranda, who are also among the five most frequent opposite-field hitters in the American League. Díaz is not going to take many walks — 8.2 BB%, good for the 37th percentile — but hitting .293 still helps him post a .359 on-base percentage, placing him in the top 20 of qualified AL batters. Read the rest of this entry »

Runs are hard to come by during the postseason, in part because of the outsized impact of cooler weather and overpowering relief pitching. So far this fall, no pitcher has done a better job of keeping runs off the board than Aaron Ashby. Working in a multi-inning role that recalls a bygone era of bullpen firemen, the 28-year-old lefty has delivered 12 1/3 scoreless innings for the Brewers thus far while playing a central role in both their Division Series win over the Padres and their Championship Series victory over the Dodgers — so much so that he assembled a reasonable NLCS MVP case, though the award went to Jake Bauers instead.

Ashby has pitched in six of Milwaukee’s eight playoff games, coincidentally Games 1, 2, and 4 of both aforementioned series. He’s thrown more innings than any other Brewer this postseason; by comparison, starters Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson have each totaled nine, and Jacob Misiorowski 8 1/3. Four of Ashby’s six outings have been hitless, and all but one has lasted at least 1 2/3 innings, a luxury afforded by the October schedule’s extra days off and his own efficiency and stamina.

“The way this guy loves to play, loves to throw every day. He keeps on wanting the ball,” said pitching coordinator Jim Henderson of Ashby in the wake of the NLCS clincher. “He’s trained himself for it. Every single day he plays catch, he gives it a full effort. He doesn’t save bullets. He creates them.” Read the rest of this entry »