Archive for 2026 Postseason

Remember that brief period of time when Tarik Skubal didn’t look like Tarik Skubal? In June, in his first three starts after returning from tiny-needle surgery, Skubal went 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA and a 5.86 FIP. He struck out as many batters as ever, but he just kept giving up home runs, and everyone whispered to their neighbors with alarm, “Maybe the needle wasn’t as tiny as we thought it was. Is it possible that it was just a regular needle with a good publicist?” Well, that period of time was shorter than you might remember. It was, in fact, just 12 days long. Over his final 16 starts, Skubal regained his form. He went 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA and a 2.14 FIP. Only once over that period did he allow even four runs in a start.

With Game 1 of the NLDS in the books, Skubal has extended that unhittable stretch to 17 starts. Under an oppressively hot midday sun in Los Angeles, the Dodgers quashed the Braves by a score of 5-3. The game started out looking like a pitcher’s duel, spent a few innings looking like it might be a rout, and ended up surprisingly close. All eight runs scored by way of the home run. Skubal was brilliant, striking out seven, walking two, and allowing two hits across six innings. At one point he retired 15 Braves in a row. The effort allowed him to lower his career postseason ERA of 2.04 even further. With a 1-0 series lead, the Dodgers have rounded into form, and the two-time defending champs look every bit the juggernaut we expected back in the spring. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Chicago White Sox pushed aside the Houston Astros in a Wild Card sweep, they set up a tilt against a familiar opponent. The Cleveland Guardians are the hereditary rulers of the AL Central, and they nipped the Sox by a single game this year. But other than playing in the same division and having nearly the same record, the two teams present quite the clash in styles. The White Sox are a group of young guys who hit home runs. The Guardians are a group of veterans who play small ball. It’s so compelling that it’s hard to find any other way to look at the series.

The difference between the two teams was on display immediately in Game 1. The Guardians sent Parker Messick to the mound for his first playoff start. He’s one of the best starters in baseball, and he’d be the Rookie of the Year favorite if Kevin McGonigle weren’t from another planet. The White Sox countered with opener Hagen Smith, coming off of an electric three innings against Houston. The White Sox aren’t deploying a “rotation” in the way you’d normally think of one; they’re heavy on multi-inning relievers and light on true starters, so their games are mix-and-match, while the Guardians hope to run their starter out for a decent stretch, then turn the game over to a series of one-inning relievers.

That’s the kind of game plan you can execute against the White Sox if you’re sharp enough. Messick came out a bit scattershot, walking Miguel Vargas and surrendering a hard-hit single to Munetaka Murakami in the first. But he also posted six strikeouts through the first three scoreless innings, the exact kind of numbers you’d expect against the aggressive White Sox lineup. Messick leans on his fastball, and he works the edges. That mattered more today, because to put it charitably, home plate umpire Cory Blaser’s strike zone was uneven. Five of those six strikeouts came on called strike threes, though White Sox hitters were clearly under dugout orders not to challenge early. A particularly egregious pitch to Randal Grichuk – 3-2 count, two inches off the plate outside – got Messick out of the third, and quite frankly, the combination of stuff and zone looked incredibly inhospitable to the White Sox. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Clemens’ managerial report cards have become a postseason staple here at FanGraphs. We’re continuing the tradition this year, while expanding the pool of writers who’ll contribute, and I’ll be stepping in with grades for the abbreviated Wild Card Series. Since I’m only going over two or three games per manager, these will be briefer than the report cards for the managers who are eliminated from the playoffs in later rounds. We’ll start with the two eliminated National League managers today, and then get into Joe Espada’s and Chad Tracy’s decisions in a couple of days.

Like Ben, I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say “that was a great move because it worked” or “that was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the result of their decision as they’re making it. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring the outcomes.

Before we get into it, I’ll caution that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the manager that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play; in-game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone.

And now, away we go.

Craig Counsell

Batting: Incomplete

I was going to give Craig Counsell an A here because the moves he did make were perfectly fine, but that’s giving him far too much credit for three pinch-hitting decisions. The Cubs didn’t hit well this series, through no fault of Counsell’s own, and they have a pretty plug-and-play lineup that became even more rigid after Alex Bregman’s facial fractures limited him to DHing during the team’s anemic offensive showing.

The lineup mirrored the one that had made the Cubs successful basically all season, and the three pinch-hit opportunities Counsell did pull the trigger on were obvious platoon-advantage layups. In Game 1, he hit Michael Conforto (113 wRC+ against righties this season) for catcher Carson Kelly (84) down by eight runs; at that point, leaving Kelly in wouldn’t really have mattered anyway. In Game 2, Tyrone Taylor and his 153 wRC+ against southpaws hit for Michael Busch (who had a still-solid 117 wRC+ against lefties this year) against extremely tough lefty Adrian Morejon; Conforto was used again to hit for Matt Shaw against ninth-inning demigod Mason Miller. Shaw had just 90 plate appearances against righties this year and was 21% below league average by wRC+.

Pitching: C

Normally, I really enjoy watching Counsell manage a pitching staff in the postseason. He’s aggressive. Roles and innings go out the window, and the idea that a starter has to go at least a time or two through the order is nowhere to be found. But I really didn’t see that level of urgency in this series. In Game 1, Matthew Boyd was shaky from literally the first pitch, a changeup that Fernando Tatis Jr. deposited over the center field wall. It didn’t get any better after that; he gave up another homer on another changeup to Manny Machado two batters later. I wouldn’t have necessarily gotten the bullpen up at that point, but I certainly would not have given Boyd the rope to go through the order almost a full second time before pulling him after 17 batters.

Game 2 was a similar story, with Kevin Gausman laboring through the second inning after a strong first. He clearly lacked the higher-end velocity that I thought might show up with the adrenaline of the playoffs but (unfortunately for the Cubs) never did. That created a tighter velocity band between his fastball and splitter, and his whiff rate was a rather mediocre 23%. And yet, he too was permitted to face the top of the order for a second time.

Perhaps Counsell’s reticence to call for a reliever was due to the bullpen’s personnel. The Cubs pitching staff was injury-ravaged the entire season and came into the playoffs without a closer; trade deadline acquisition Ryan Zeferjahn didn’t stabilize the bullpen as hoped, taking a step back after his acquisition from the Angels. But the Cubs had length options in spades, namely David Peterson, Aaron Civale, Shota Imanaga, and Clay Holmes. Imanaga or Holmes may well have been earmarked to start a potential Game 3, but the other options were underutilized. Pairing the righty Civale with the lefty Boyd, or the lefty Peterson with the righty Gausman, and more aggressively managing the starters would have created more inflection points for opposing manager Craig Stammen to have to sort through as he thought about deploying his bench.

Instead, the shaky starters were pushed too far, leading to Game 1 being all but decided by the time Javier Assad was first out of the bullpen, while Daniel Palencia was forced into a dirty inning in Game 2.

Don Mattingly

Batting: B+

The Phillies lineup limped down the stretch, almost blowing the team’s playoff spot in the process. To add injury to insult, Luis Arraez’s badly sprained ankle kept him off the Wild Card roster entirely. That left Don Mattingly with a restricted bench and a handcuffed set of in-game options, not to mention a somewhat makeshift starting lineup. Shielding Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford from lefties almost entirely in favor of Derek Hill and Bryan De La Cruz made sense, and considering the tools he had at his disposal, I have no qualms with how Mattingly handled his in-game platooning.

Ultimately, I bumped Mattingly down just a hair here for sticking with Trea Turner in the leadoff spot, as he did for the last few games of the regular season while the Phillies were spiraling. I know that a single lineup spot in a handful of games doesn’t actually matter that much, but having a struggling batter guaranteed to get as many or more plate appearances as anyone else on the team still doesn’t sit quite right with me. Additionally, having Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit back-to-back (with Bryson Stott just two spots later) created an obvious pocket for Walt Weiss to deploy southpaw Dylan Lee, and even Chris Sale, out of the bullpen. For as bad as Turner’s struggles had been, having a righty amidst the two big lefties may have given Weiss just a little bit more pause when making pitching changes.

Pitching: D+

Like Counsell, Mattingly didn’t have a whole lot to work with here. Jesús Luzardo, Cristopher Sánchez, and Zack Wheeler are awesome. Beyond that, well… it seemed like Jhoan Duran was the only reliever Mattingly thought he could truly trust, and he used him like it in Game 1.

Duran came in to start the seventh inning with the Phillies ahead by a run and Atlanta’s 9-1-2 hitters due up. If things went perfectly, Drake Baldwin and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s last plate appearances — in a Phillies win — would come against Duran in that inning, with Matt Olson looming. With that in mind, I fully endorse using Duran in that spot — and sending him back out for the eighth — with the information Mattingly had at the time. Your best reliever has to face the meat of the lineup and not whoever is due to hit with three outs left in the game. Starting Duran with the nine spot and a clean inning rather than going batter-to-batter with Alex McFarlane or another reliever was perfectly sensical considering Duran’s regular season usage, which almost invariably started with nobody on base.

We have no way of knowing if Duran would have gone three innings and taken it to the house had Austin Riley not taken him deep in the eighth, but there weren’t obvious warning signs showing that he shouldn’t have been allowed to face Riley. Riley was coming off a horrible regular season, and his three-run homer was set up by a well-placed but poorly-hit groundball by Michael Harris II and a yanked knuckle-curve Ozzie Albies hit-by-pitch, this after having secured two outs on three pitches. One poorly-placed fastball doesn’t make leaving Duran in a bad decision; it’s not as if he had thrown 40 pitches and was clearly tiring.

The crushing Game 1 loss left the Phillies with their backs against the wall and Duran unavailable after 27 pitches and nine batters, and considering Donnie Baseball’s hands were tied even more, I thought he mostly did a passable job with his choices in Game 2. If I had been in Mattingly’s shoes, I would have pulled Sánchez immediately after a Baldwin RBI double gave the Braves the lead in the seventh rather than intentionally walking Albies to set up a platoon-advantaged matchup of a gassed Sánchez facing Matt Olson. As the manager there, I’d much prefer a fresher McFarlane against the worse bat of Albies than Sánchez against Olson for a fourth time; that non-move was overly deferential to left-on-left and living and dying with your ace rather than recognizing how little Sánchez had left.

Mattingly and pitching coach Caleb Cotham redeemed themselves to some extent by recognizing that with Duran unavailable, Andrew Painter was the best option out of the bullpen for the eighth and beyond. Sending Painter back out there for the 10th and ultimately letting him face Riley and Harris a second time later in the inning was not without risk, but Painter’s velocity and stuff held, and again, who else did the Phillies really have at that point?

If the series had ended after two games, I’d give Mattingly a solid B or B+ for his moves. But Game 3 was so baffling in its entirety that I tanked his grade a full two letters. The decision to start Aaron Nola over Wheeler frankly defied logic in its reasoning. Nola purportedly got the nod because he was the more rested of the two, with the NBC broadcast also noting that the Phillies thought Wheeler profiled better in relief. But the sequencing of pitcher usage should prioritize the best pitcher, not the guy who’s the most-rested or has the best relief profile. Plus, Wheeler ultimately proved he could be stretched to four innings and 68 pitches — he didn’t exactly turn in a traditional relief outing. (I know, I said I would operate based on the information known to the managers at the time and not what ended up happening, but Wheeler’s eventual workload shows that he had a good amount in the tank, which the Phillies would have been aware of before the game.)

Regardless of how much he had to give, Wheeler having anything at all meant he should have started the game; it guaranteed that his outing would start with the Phillies tied or ahead, not when the club was already playing catch-up. To be clear, Nola was almost surely going to have to pitch at some point in the game — the Phillies put themselves in this mess by taking so long to clinch that Wheeler had to pitch the last game of the season, and he was on short rest in Game 3 — but using him as the opening salvo was the wrong move.

Mattingly was sufficiently aggressive in pulling Nola for Tim Mayza after nine batters faced, though while I’m picking nits, I’ll say I would have brought Mayza (or José Alvarado) in for Dominic Smith in the nine spot rather than have Nola face him. Weiss had been aggressive with pinch-hitting with his down-lineup hitters to that point in the series, and it would’ve been worth finding out if he’d go to his bench early and take one of his weapons for later in the game off the board. Even if Weiss had countered, I’d rather have had a lefty reliever against a righty than Nola against a lefty, as shaky as he had looked to that point.

From there, I can’t quibble with much. Wheeler gave what he could and Duran’s availability was evidently limited to a single inning, with Jonathan Bowlan filling the space between the two arms. Bowlan was a fine choice down by three runs, with McFarlane having pitched the prior two games and presumably available but potentially considerably less sharp. Luzardo was reportedly available for an inning or two despite starting Game 1 and throwing 77 pitches coming back from shoulder inflammation, but I’m okay with not using him as a Hail Mary at that point in the game. Perhaps Wheeler or Duran could’ve instead been stretched to cover the gap that Bowlan filled, but at that point the Phillies were chasing runs, and I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Mattingly and Cotham for knowing their pitchers’ limits better than I do. The decision to start Nola ultimately had the team playing from behind and using its best arms while trailing, not exactly an unforeseeable outcome.

Today marks the start of the Division Series, and we can only hope that these four matchups are more exciting than three of the four first-round series. Excluding the Braves-Phillies series — which went the full three games, two of which featured late lead changes — the closest scoring margin in a Wild Card Series game was three runs, and there were more games decided by at least seven runs (three) than by three (two).

That’s not to say that these other series were snoozers. I covered the Yankees-Red Sox series, and the atmosphere in the Bronx made for an electric experience regardless of the final scores, while the energy pulsing through Petco Park for the Padres-Cubs games was palpable on the broadcast. That wasn’t the case in Houston, where the Astros fell behind early in both games and got booed for their poor play. But those two games were at least a bit closer, and it was still enjoyable enough to watch the White Sox win after three consecutive 100-loss seasons. The real issue was that the result of those three series never really felt in doubt after the winning teams jumped out to early leads. Here’s to more back-and-forth affairs and outcomes that hang in the balance.

In this week’s mailbag, we’re answering your questions about the ideal playoff format, whether the White Sox are benefiting from divine intervention, whether it’s better to have elite hitting and below-average pitching or vice versa in the postseason, and the highest single-season WAR for a player who finished in the negative. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

The “mediocrity” of the American League made their muddled standings and September races for the postseason an object of derision. At least as far as the AL Central was concerned, though, that was not the case on my couch. All four of the division’s competitive clubs were must-watch TV down the stretch. Three of the Central’s teams finished with positive run differentials. Minnesota and Detroit had frustrating and disappointing seasons, but both have cores of exciting young talent that made them incredibly watchable, and despite taking different routes at the trade deadline, both fought to stay in the postseason picture through August.

However, had either of those teams usurped the White Sox or Guardians, both of which hovered around the division lead all season, it would have felt unjust. The White Sox got off to a bad start and were 6-12 in mid-April, then went on a heater in May (pummeling Seattle, Detroit and Minnesota) and began to jockey with Cleveland for the division lead. The Guardians hit a snag and fell away from the Sox in July, only to resurge after the trade deadline and ultimately claim the division title on the regular season’s penultimate day. It gave Cleveland a playoff bye and forced the White Sox to play a road Wild Card Series in Houston, home of the AL West (an actually bad division) champion Astros. The White Sox swept Houston with relative ease and now head to Cleveland to settle the score after both their head-to-head season series (which the Guardians won 7-6) and overall records were separated by just one game.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two of the most successful ballclubs of the modern era are set to battle each other in the National League Division Series, with a spot in the Championship Series on the line. Fresh off dispatching the Philadelphia Phillies in a dramatic three-game Wild Card Series — their first postseason series win since winning the World Series back in 2021 — the Atlanta Braves now have to face a juggernaut in the Los Angeles Dodgers. They had to go through Los Angeles in the NLCS to earn that championship five years ago, the second of their back-to-back meetings in the semi-finals. As for the Dodgers, this series is the beginning of their quest to win a third consecutive World Series, something that’s been done just four times in MLB history and never by a National League team.

The Braves won the season series between these two teams, claiming victories in five of their six meetings while holding Los Angeles to just 15 total runs across those games. Still, beating the regular season-Dodgers is one thing; the postseason-Dodgers are an entirely different beast. The injury issues that plagued them throughout the season are largely in the rear-view mirror and their roster is the strongest it’s been since Opening Day. It will be a tall task to try and topple one of the best teams in baseball in five games.

After being eliminated from the playoffs by the Phillies twice in the last four years — and missing the postseason entirely last season — the Braves finally managed to get revenge against their division rival. That said, it took three games to do it, which puts them at a bit of a disadvantage heading into the NLDS. Not only do they have just one day to recuperate and prepare for the next challenge, the Braves used Chris Sale to get the final four outs of yesterday’s Game 3. His start against the Phillies Tuesday would line him up to start Game 2 of the NLDS on normal rest, and Thursday was his normal bullpen day, but his relief appearance is not without potential consequences. Manager Walt Weiss told reporters today that Sale could start Game 2, but that the team would “err on the side of giving him (time to rest) if it’s even close.” Pushing him to Game 3 would be a significant blow to the Braves chances since it would only allow him to start once in the series. Read the rest of this entry »

In basketball, the biggest offensive threat is usually guarded by the other team’s best defender. A football team’s most dynamic wide receiver has to worry about lining up across from an All-Pro cornerback. But in this sick and twisted sport, sometimes good-on-good instead becomes good-on-whoever-we-have-available. For the 2026 crop of Division Series, there is no shortage of micro matchups — both because the soft underbelly of every roster typically gets exposed in the postseason, and because every organization’s horde of spreadsheet nerds will be combing through information looking for advantages — that may or may not seal a team’s fate.

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Run Game vs. Run Game

The Padres and Brewers series will feature a lot of things: two cities that love beer, a blinding amount of yellow arm sleeves and rally towels, and a bunch of basepath thievery.

Both of these teams finished top five in total stolen bases this year, each employing a crew of bandits that will surely look to continue their heist. The Padres were one of just five major league teams to have multiple players swipe at least 25 bags, as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill took 38 and 27, respectively. Xander Bogaerts, who was not much of a basestealer until arriving in San Diego in 2023, has also joined the party. His 22 steals in 2026 — during his age-33 season, impressively — marked a new single-season best, topping the previous career high of 20 he set in 2025. And while neither received enough playing time to put up those kinds of numbers, speedy outfielders Samad Taylor and Jase Bowen both have elite sprint speed and solid base-stealing acumen. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written a lot of playoff series previews over the years. You can go about them in a number of ways. Highlight some key players from each team, perhaps, or touch on one particularly interesting matchup. If you’re feeling frisky, series previews can tell a narrative story, or even get experimental and weird. But one thing I don’t think I’ve ever tried before is looking at the series through the lens of failure.

That sounds negative, defeatist, not in keeping with the kind of escapism we come to baseball for. But that’s only if you don’t think about it too long – because one team’s failure is another team’s success. If the Padres get eliminated, the Brewers don’t, and vice versa. It’s a zero-sum game. So let’s figure out how things could go wrong for the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers, and use that to shine a light on what each team will be trying to do to the other as they square off in the NLDS.

How the Brewers Might Fail
Milwaukee has the best starter in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski, and by virtue of earning a first-round bye, they’ll deploy him on full rest to open the series. That means he’ll also be available to pitch on five days’ rest in a potential Game 5. It’s a huge advantage right from the jump; Milwaukee’s ace is better than San Diego’s ace, Michael King, and King won’t appear until Game 2 of this series.

But when a single starter is a major reason for one team’s advantage, failure is always just around the corner. Misiorowski gets my vote for the best pitcher in baseball right now, and he’s going to win the NL Cy Young in a landslide. But even as he cruised to a 1.80 ERA, he was hardly perfect. He got tagged for five runs twice this year, and for three runs five more times. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the strong side of the bracket. This ain’t no Guardians-White Sox. They may not have been sanctified by the Bishop of Rome, but we’ve got a matchup between the Rays and the Yankees, the two best teams in the American League. Or, at least, the teams with the two best records. The Rays won 98 games, which gave them the best record in the American League by a whopping five-game margin. With 93 wins, the Yankees were the only team within 11 wins of the Rays! But according to both their BaseRuns and Pythagorean records, the Rays played above their heads and the Yankees are the better team.

The Rays won the season series, 7-6, but four of those 13 games took place very recently. In the penultimate series of the regular season, the Yankees took three of four from the Rays in the Bronx. Somehow, this is just the second time the Rays and Yankees have ever faced off in the playoffs. Tampa Bay beat New York, 3-2, in the 2020 ALDS. Gerrit Cole went 1-0 in two starts in the series, and Giancarlo Stanton batted .316 with four home runs. Aaron Judge knocked two homers of his own, but batted just .143. Yankees reliever Ryan Yarbrough pitched pretty well too, but he did so for the Rays. Anyway, that was six years ago in a season that just barely happened. So much for history.

In years past, we’ve hashed out and rehashed the great debate: Would you rather have a bye and risk the rust, or would you rather come off a series win, triumphant but unrested? This conversation has always been at least a little bit silly because it’s always better to take the bye; no one has ever lost a bye. Still, this year, it’s different. The Rays will be coming off five full days of rest. They could be rusty. But the Yankees won’t be tired. They got three days off before the Wild Card series, and they finished stomping a mudhole in the Red Sox on Wednesday night, giving them two full days off to recover. The entire bullpen is rested. Presumptive (read: 100% certain) AL Cy Young Cam Schlittler won’t pitch Game 1, but he’ll be on regular rest for Game 2 and a potential series-deciding Game 5. The offense that everyone was worried about just put up back-to-back nine-spots. Momentum may be a construct, but you’d still rather have it on your side, right? Read the rest of this entry »

Cade Smith is one of the game’s most dominant closers. Since debuting with the Cleveland Guardians in 2024, the 27-year-old right-hander from Abbotsford, British Columbia boasts a 2.26 ERA, a 1.84 FIP, and a 35.5% strikeout rate over 219 appearances comprising 233 innings. Moreover, he enters October on the heels of his best season to date. Not only did Smith forge a 1.95 ERA over 74 frames, his 41 saves tied him with Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker for the most in the majors.

His development is a testament to his raw talent and work ethic, but also to the Guardians’ highly regarded pitching program. When Smith signed with Cleveland as an amateur free agent in 2020 following the pandemic-truncated five-round draft, he barely resembled the pitcher he is today. The University of Hawaii product now features a 97.5-mph heater that ranked in the 91st percentile for velocity this year, a devastating bat-missing splitter, and a sweeper that elicited a .133 xBA.

A lot has changed over the years.

“When Cade entered the organization he was a low-90s pitcher with no secondary stuff,” explained Guardians bullpen coach Caleb Longshore, who previously tutored Smith as both a minor league pitching coach and coordinator. “We identified some things in his delivery that he has leaned into over the years, and we’ve seen a steady year-over-year increase in velocity. He started working on the splitter in 2023, in [Double-A] Akron, when [now big league assistant pitching coach] Brad Goldberg was there.”

Smith’s relationship with Longshore and Goldberg was a point of interest when I spoke with him in the final week of the regular season. Read the rest of this entry »