Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of 2025! Very shortly my profile of Edwin Encarnación will go live on the site, my last of this calendar year but not of this cycle; I’ve got a bunch of one-and-done guys to cover in January. My Hall of Fame ballot explainer will go live a week from today, and will be in the mail the same day.

Jay Jaffe: In case you’re scoring at home, that’s four new profiles thus far (Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, and Encarnación), eight holdover profiles, and three multi-candidate roundups. You can see the schedule here — with a link to our Crowdsource Ballot, if you haven’t already partaken (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-of-your-own-and…) — or follow the links atop each post to get to the ones you missed.

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show.

John T.: In your Fernando Valenzuela Era Committee piece you mentioned electing more pioneers to the HOF. In that spirit, would you support electing more people with outsize influences on the game, even in unconventional ways—I’ve long thought that Dr. Frank Jobe should be in the HOF for the role he’s played in baseball history. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: I think once we establish this as a viable route into the Hall, Jobe would definitely be one worth considering. I do find it remarkable that only two pitchers with TJs have been elected (John Smoltz and Billy Wagner), but that speaks more to the general dearth of pitchers elected over the past few decades than anything else.

Guest: If you had to pick a fifth starter for the Padres (and I’m praying for a trade or free agent signing to fill the fourth starter spot) would it JP Sears or Randy Vasquez and why?  Red is absent on both of their Statcast pages…

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy, I’m on the road seeing family for the holidays while still hammering away at writing and Board maintenance, but still wanted to squeeze in one last chat before the site is dark starting in the middle of next week through New Year’s Day. So let’s boogie.

fried rice: why is ZIPS so bullish on colt emerson’s 3B defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question, I think it’s probably just mapping to 3B the metrics Dan’s using from SS/2B based on historical data when a player makes a similar move. But it’s Danny’s model, I don’t know for certain.

AD: Jordy Vargas came back after a really long injury layoff. Looks like he struck a ton of dudes out, but the walks were crazy. Is this normal injury rust, or had something noticeably changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought his delivery looked *better* in a sense, namely that the traits I’m looking for in a delivery (in this case I thought Vargas was getting down he mound better than before, I haven’t looked at the extension data to check tho) were more present than before, his arm slot was kind of all over the place late in 2023 and was more consistently 3/4s in 2025…

Eric A Longenhagen: This plus rust coming off the TJ means I’m not super concerned (the breaking ball still performed like a 70 last year) but obviously the Rockies track record with arms hasn’t been great.

Dan Szymborski: And we are here.

Dan Szymborski: Because we can’t be there.

Dan Szymborski: Can only be here.

Rick: The Phillies, Braves, and Mets have all made significant additions since their ZiPS projections were released. How do you view their division at this point in time?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think hugely different; the Phillies I think are clearly better.

Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t released Mets yet!

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, happy to be home and back with you, let’s get to it…

RS: Not a Giants fan, but I’m surprised Josuar Gonzalez isn’t considered a top 10 prospect. His batted ball metrics are impressive and the reports on his defense are even more impressive. Is it a proximity thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: The proximity and time-to-maturation pieces of it matter, yeah, and with that comes an added degree of uncertainty. Josuar is so young that aspects of how he’s going to develop athletically and bodily are also more difficult to project at this time…

Eric A Longenhagen: For instance, there was a point where Starlyn Caba’s report was, “Elite defender, elite contact rate (like 90%) DSL SS.”

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Caba, but he’s developed as an athlete in such a way (he’s remained like 5-foot-9, he’s a smaller guy) that limits his ceiling. SOmething like that *could* still happen to Josuar.

Eric A Longenhagen: But there’s also the outcome where he develops, physically, like Lindor. That Josuar even has that kind of ceiling is a special thing in the prospect space, even if it isn’t the likeliest outcome.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good afternoon from my mom’s breakfast nook in Port Charlotte! I fly to Florida a few days early to see family before trekking up to Orlando for Winter Meetings. I can’t wait to do Disney character voices for my peers.

Eric A Longenhagen: I expect chat will be closer to 45 minutes today because I have to wrap up my analysis of last night’s Pirates/Red Sox trade.

Eric A Longenhagen: SO let’s get to it.

AB: Curious to know if you have anything on Seojun Moon that the bluejays signed earlier?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, really well-built Korean kid sitting about 93. Prototypical 6-foot-3 frame, good-looking delivery, command is kind of erratic. Probably would have been a top three pick in the KBO draft, looks like a million dollar arm to me. Maybe got a little more because late-market guys tend to, not a terrible consolation prize for being the Roki runner up.

AB: Wondering if you know anything about the Florida bridge league, any Jays standout and how was Jojo Parker?

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaaay we go

Dan Szymborski: or, heeeeere we go

Lowetide: I noticed a ‘Wilbur Wood’ comp on the Marlins and am now looking forward to Robby Snelling’s career. How often does the Wood comp show up on these lists? He was unique.

Dan Szymborski: Not often, I don’t think

JT: Does Zips not care about optimal launch? Trying to figure out why it loves Michael Harris so much

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does, but Harris is also still quite young, and *should* have higher BABIPs

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy from cloudy Tempe, where we skipped the 70s and went straight to winter. Thanks for coming to another prospect chat. Your boy is sick with something flu-like and had to cancel plans with the neighbors for tonight so I’m just banging away at prospect lists and watching the Robert Altman stuff that will leave Criterion at the end of the month. Nice long chat today, let’s see if I can answer questions as fast as you ask them….

Guards! Guards!: Any update on that oft injured Guardians pitching prospect that everyone keeps asking you about? I, of course, mean Justin Campbell.

Eric A Longenhagen: I texted a few people about this after folks asked just before Halloween and was told a scap strain and wrist stuff prevented him from throwing. I was told by a different source he threw some live bp at the end of September, but wasn’t told how he looked.

Jim: What do you need to see to become a Henry Bolte believer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’m wondering to what degree are you asking me to believe? I think his tools will allow him to be a useful extra outfielder. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a regular. Too late on fastballs, too much whiffing overall. I’d ask you to reflect on what you thought about Colby Thomas twelve months ago and whether you thought I was light on him, too.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What are your thoughts on the Rodriguez-Ward trade?