Archive for Chat

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to my final chat of the regular season.

Jay Jaffe: The playoff picture is still unsettled. Yesterday I dove into the remaining possibility of tiebreaker scenarios https://blogs.fangraphs.com/untying-the-tiebreaker-scenarios-one-more-…

Jay Jaffe: Alas, we won’t get tiebreaker games because of the Fun Police at MLB headquarters

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I checked in on Elly De La Cruz’s big season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-hot-elly-de-la-cruz/, and earlier last week I wrote about Pete Alonso’s return to Citi Field https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pete-alonsos-return-to-citi-field-turns-me…

Jay Jaffe: I’m working on something on the weakest spots on the remaining contenders. Aaron Judge was already in my lede due to the uncertainty regarding his calf strain, and now we’ve learned that he received a PPP injection https://bsky.app/profile/chelseajanes.bsky.social/post/3mw4kutow4s2a

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time has arrived.

robertobeers: A man, a Dan, a chat, odds of two losing records in the playoffs? sffoyalpethinsdrocergnisolowtfosddotahcanadanama

Dan Szymborski: It’s getting into low single digits now. There are enough contenders in the AL hovering around .500 that it’s likely that both the ALC and wild cards will now be marginally winning teams

Charles Bengal Tiger: What prospect has made the biggest ZIPs jump this season?

Dan Szymborski: Luis Lara I believe

Dan Szymborski: if he had had had a 2026 projection, Eric Hartman would be up there too

Brendan Gawlowski: Hey everybody, I screwed up the start time on the Jotcast platform. We’ll start at 11 PST as usual.

Brendan Gawlowski: Alrighty, hello everybody. Let’s get going.

oaktownblues: Drew Burress is having a great pro debut overall, but should I be worried about the sub-70% contact rate? Does he have the juice to succeed as a low contact guy?

Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t worry too much about the late-season cameo peripherals. Burress stopped playing for a couple months, got paid a ton of money, moved across the country, and started swinging a new type of bat. He struck out more than I’d have guessed but that’s a lot of change in a short amount of time, too many variables to make a huge adjustment to the forecast just yet.

Bacterun: With Josue de Paula having yet to strikeout in his first 4 MLB games, who is the prospect with the best plate discipline you have every scouted?

Brendan Gawlowski: Amador. I still believe.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! After a couple weeks of scheduling conflicts, this chat is back, baby.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece in the editorial pipeline regarding the two leagues’ Cy Young races. The consensus points to Misiorowski and Schilttler, and the impressions may be locked in, but their statistical edges aren’t as clear-cut as you might think.

Jay Jaffe: Last week, I wrote about the Teoscar Hernández revival (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-well-timed-teoscar-hernandez-revival/), the playoff picture (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-still-aint-team-entropy-but-both-leag…) and some AL East center fielder injuries (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-bad-weekend-for-al-east-center-fielders-…)

Jay Jaffe: The Red Sox have continued to deal with center field issues, with Eli White — who had done a decent job replacing Ceddanne Rafaela — landing on the IL with a right foot ligament injury

Jay Jaffe: (sorry, dealing with editorial queries)

puddle: Obviously tiny sample size and a .499 xwOBA won’t hold, but Josue De Paula’s 35% BB-rate, 0% K-rate, and 94.8 avg exit velo is kind of bonkers for a 21 year old who jumped straight from AA. Watching him spit on 3-2 splitters and sliders to take the walk makes me really understand what scouts meant by “advanced approach.” What the heck are the Dodgers going to do with him the playoffs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning everyone, hope you had a good week. I’m on the road looking for a reprieve from the heat, hoping that things have downshifted when I get back. The forecast doesn’t look favorable for that. I’m in data-gathering mode, lining the coffers for offseason list-making. I have a rental car pickup in about 90 mins, so we’re keeping things tight to the hour today. Let’s get after it.

Charles Bengal Tiger: So, 47 HRs for Fischer. What does it really mean?

Eric A Longenhagen: Because of how the bottom of the big league scale is shifting and evolving, I’m starting to come around on the idea that this will be good enough for Fischer to be a first division regular at first base…

Eric A Longenhagen: Here is the bottom of the big league player pop in terms of contact rate:

Eric A Longenhagen: Minimum 200 PA

Eric A Longenhagen: Major League Leaderboards – 2026 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Brendan Gawlowski: Allllright, a prospect chat. After a long trip, maybe I should ask the questions and you all can tell me happened these last few weeks.

Brendan Gawlowski: Kidding. I dutifully prepared by watching Jonah Tong exhaust his rookie eligibility, thank God, last night.

rainingmozzarella: Hi Brendan! How was your time off?

Brendan Gawlowski: I missed baseball but Italy was amazing, thank you.

WonderWall: Hi Brendan, hope you had a great trip!  I was wondering what resources you used when you were learning Italian?

Brendan Gawlowski: Started with Duo but things only really took off when I found some friends on Tandem and started talking with them regularly. Supplement with podcasts, books/newspapers, and some tv.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, chat. Happy September Stretch Run to you all.

Brendan Smith: Will you be at the first weekend of the AZ Fall League? Any tips for a first-time attendee?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, I’ll be here all season save for maybe one weekend where I slip out of town for football. My first tips for newbs is to check the schedule to make sure you’re not accidentally coming here when the group is playing down in Tucson, or when there are off days to avoid counter-programming the world series. Look at the schedule and see when the games take place consecutively so you can double and triple up.

Eric A Longenhagen: My second piece of advice is to avoid Glendale during the day if it’s still pretty hot outside. The way that ballpark is oriented leaves you without shade.

scottsjunk1981: Have you seen anything unexpected in Jackson Kent’s first few starts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just that the strikes have been *this* bad. Changeup is missing bats at a plus clip. Think he’s still in that no. 4/5 SP area long term.