Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the LDS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch four baseball games for the last time all year! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
We are going to open the chat up at 3:30 PM ET and it will remain open until the final out of the Brewers-Padres game.
Saw him on the backfields, where he hit everything. Didn't get much of Surprise and he wasn't in the lineup there when I did. But he looks hitterish.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Henry Bolte have another gear beyond what he showed this season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think so. He already hit for power than you'd think for someone with a 60%+ ground ball rate and a lot of strikeouts.
Resolution
Any insights on Jack O’Dowd’s ability to stick at catcher? Has been rougher so far but he’s still newish to the position
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't look good. Arm very light for it, couple pop times in the 2.15 range yesterday.
Kevin Kelsey
Jake Monroe a borderline top 100?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Has barrel feel but that's the only tool. Fringy at third, oppo shooter with below average power.
riibett
Are you more of an Owen Carey or Connor Essenburg guy?
Brendan Gawlowski
Essenburg. I don't want to overreact to a few AFL games but Carey looked ordinary this past week.
Kevin Kelsey
Can Braxton Bragg get back to being a well regarded maybe mid rotation arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd take the under. Saw him last week, sat 92-94, breaking ball looked just okay.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Would you rather have Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens out of the Astros' system?
Brendan Gawlowski
Alvarez. I'm not sure Neyens can hit.
Phil
Who goes from Worcester to Boston this winter/spring? Arias I should hope, but I'm wondering about the long-awaited Duran trade opening up a spot for Campbell. Are there other good fits?
Brendan Gawlowski
Red Sox list will be out fairly early in the cycle, which will presumably answer this in a lot of detail. Arias will be up early, possibly Opening Day depending on what Boston does this winter. As for Campbell, he's going to have to hit his way back into town.
rainingmozzarella
How has Demetrio Crisantes and Patrick Forbes looked so far, if you've had a chance to see them?
Brendan Gawlowski
Did not see Forbes; Crisantes was his usual self. Fast, good barrel feel. Better than a lot of the pitchers he'll face.
Charles Bengal Tiger
A follow-up on the Alvarez-Neyens question. Is Albert Fermin a comparable prospect to Alvarez?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
rainingmozzarella
So since the Dbacks have a bloated payroll, bad farm system, and way too many holes, do you think it makes sense to trade either Perdomo or Moreno to get a bunch of pieces back?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sounds like payroll is about to go down, too. I don't think I would, with Burnes back and Pfaadt (perhaps) having turned a corner, I'd keep the core intact for another run.
rainingmozzarella
In an effort for the Dbacks to get more pitching depth, do you think Tommy Troy for Karson Milbrandt makes sense for both sides?
Brendan Gawlowski
If you were really confident that you could reliably get Millbrandt back into the strike zone, sure. But I don't know how you could be.
Churlayla
Rafe Perich. What's the fatal flaw?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know if he has a fatal flaw, more that fringy defense and a power-over-hit skillset likely make him more of a supplementary fit than an everyday guy.
higginsford
What are the top 1 or 2 things you would focus on if you were hired as the A's GM?
Brendan Gawlowski
Figuring out what the altitudinal effects of the new park will look like and building a pitching plan around that from soup to nuts.
Cosmo
How likely is it that either Josuar or Walcott are the #1 prospect sometime next summer?
Brendan Gawlowski
Josuar's time in that airspace is more likely in 2028
ImKeithHernandez
Do the Mets have a #1, #3, and #5 in McLean, Scott, and Thornton?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good way to think of it. Maybe shorting Thornton a little bit.
Solitaire
When an athletic corner outfielder with well-above average sprint speed grades out well below average as a fielder, specifically from range, is the conclusion just "this guy takes bad routes because he misreads the ball?" Can you teach that? This question is about Dylan Beavers, but I feel like I see it often
Brendan Gawlowski
That can be part of it. First step/acceleration comes into play too. This can get better with time and reps but some guys just have better instincts and reads than others.
Churlayla
Thanks for taking our queries!
Brendan Gawlowski
You're welcome. I may have screwed something up in how I scheduled this, there aren't many folks in here today relative to most weeks. So, uh, good odds if you have a question…
higginsford
Do you think Jefferson Rojas and Brayden Taylor contribute at the MLB level next year? Have them in an Ottoneu league
Brendan Gawlowski
Fantasy is a little out of my realm but my instinct is that neither should be lynchpins of your 2027 plans.
Churlayla
Max Anderson breaks camp at the keystone in Detroit?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would guess not. Re-signing Gleyber would make sense for them, but even if they keep it internal, I'd prioritize getting Lee in the lineup first.
crossedup
Where are we at on Tai Peete? Stat wise it seems like he took a step forward with some help of a near .400 babip; was there any notable change to his set up or swing at the plate to go with it?
Brendan Gawlowski
Spin has been the big issue with him. It still is but perhaps to a slightly lesser degree. This is a guy to stay patient with, if he hits, he'll hit big. Prospects move so quickly these days, he's one I'd continue to push slowly.
viceroy
Names to watch in Fall and winter leagues? Maybe prospects who were hyped and then hurt and these will be the first looks at them in a minute
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have notes on a lot of these guys in the coming days but… Lot of pitchers match that description… Kannon Kemp, Braxton Bragg, Jake Bloss… I liked R.J. Sales yesterday, too. Among the hitters, Dax Kilby blew me away, Wyatt Sanford and Nathan Hall are really interesting. Tai Peete and Braylon Payne are fun/toolsy. Alex McCoy may hit one to Mars.
tdmoc
Any chance you'll be at tomorrow's Peoria/Glendale game? Curious about Patrick Reilly 50+ innings into his TJS return.
Brendan Gawlowski
Back home, unfortunately. Perhaps Eric will be at the game…
viceroy
Why didn’t Max Anderson get a shot down the stretch? Is the glove work an issue? Are they skeptical of the approach even though it’s worked so far? Issues against heat/spin?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't see him as an impact guy.
Bud Smith
Get a chance to see Susana?
Brendan Gawlowski
I did. Sat 101-103, low effort, which is a real thing I just typed. Pairs it with a low-mid 80s sweeper mostly, threw a couple harder breaking balls. He'll be high on the T100.
oaktownblues
Should the A's stretch Luis Medina back out to be a starter? Or keep in him in the pen now that he's had some success?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bullpen, I don't think he has the command to start, and the fastball plays down from the number.
crossedup
What's the off-season scheduling look like? Odds and ends from the AFL and planning for the Top prospect lists?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have a bunch of notes in the next week, they're long enough that we're planning to publish a few posts to stagger them. From there, Eric is working furiously on Asian players, we'll need to prepare a 2027 draft board, and of course lists, lists, lists. I'm 98.54% done with one list and 89.14% done with a second.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd also like to write a follow up to the pro scouting piece that ran at the end of September.
higginsford
I know y'all got a lot on your plate but around when do you think an initial list will go on THE BOARD for the 2027 draft?
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric and I talked about this when I was down in Phoenix. Before the start of the college season, late January or early February would be my guess.
Churlayla
Franklin Primera. Get excited or he just overpowered the level?
Brendan Gawlowski
Little of both. Expecting him to be a 45+ this winter. Sneak peak on the conclusion: "While the hit tool is really exciting, Primera is not especially projectable, and we want to see how his swing and approach hold up against better pitching before we dive in with both feet. He’s the kind of player where, were I still scouting for a team, I’d write him up as an everyday player without hesitation, but from a valuation perspective, we think it behooves us to stay patient for a little while longer. "
CherryTomato
First full healthy season from Farmelo. Anything unexpected from his performance?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not really, was worried that the injuries might've taken a bite out of his speed, but fortunately that wasn't the case. Otherwise, showed the talent and the swing and miss you'd expect with his long swing. We'll see if better pitching forces an adjustment soon.
Solitaire
I get the impression that high/low effort on velocity is treated as quite important/valuable but I'm not sure I've seen analysis confirming that. I've seen HOF starters who look like they're max efforting all the time and I've seen middle reliever Andrew Kittredge casually throw 96 like he's in the backyard. Curious your thoughts. Does looking like you're not trying actually mean it's easy? Are our monkey brains just stuck on facial expressions as important identifiers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot to unpack here. I generally but not always like lower effort because, in my experience at least, it correlates with better strike throwing and health. It's certainly not a 1:1 relationship with either. I don't recall where I read it, but Scherzer had a really insightful perspective on this, and on how he's been able to stay healthy even though he's a high effort guy because he's so strong and coordinated that he's able to pitch without over-stressing his arm.
Brendan Gawlowski
For most of the non-freak athletes, it's really hard to put the ball where you want if you're trying to throw it as hard as you can.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What would an 80th percentile outcome on Logan Hughes look like?
Brendan Gawlowski
Late career Joc with smoother peaks and valleys.
niall
Among baseball writers, I've noticed that there's a lot of mention around IP as the proxy to measure SP workload in the minors and majors. I started thinking about this after noticing Brody Hopkins and Kendry Chourio pitched a similar number of innings despite Hopkins facing about 100 more batters (very different types of pitcher, obviously). Do you get the sense teams/scouts are using this proxy or is this more of a shorthand where they're measuring something else to get at the "load" on pitchers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Shorthand. Teams have other ways to more precisely measure workload/stress.
Churlayla
What's for lunch?
Brendan Gawlowski
Man, I just had breakfast, why so ambitious?
crossedup
Following up from last chat; were you able to take a look at the Mariners lower minor starters? I know you were a bit interested in Bowery but there was also Reid Easterly and Scott Rouse. I know you were in AFL so not sure if you had a chance to look.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sorry, next chat I got you.
Haste11
Does Ralphy V win the starting 1B job in Cleveland on Opening Day? It feels like he doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of variables, new CBA might have something to say about this. You will see him soon, whether it's Opening Day or not is subject to factors outside of his control/performance.
Brendan Gawlowski
On talent, he could do it.
Fangraphs Man
Has Hagen Smith showed anything in his cup of coffee that makes you think he’s more likely to be a starter long term?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, strengths — awesome stuff — and weaknesses — below average control — in his game have long been apparent and we're seeing them these playoffs.
Churlayla
Ethan Anderson is the #2 C behind Basallo by August 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think Anderson and Willems both are better fits as third catchers than traditional backups. Particularly with Basallo around, who you may not want to catch everyday anyway, I think BAL would prefer to have a better defender as the backup. But that's speculation.
Samuel Clemens
What does Tyler Bremner need to work on to keep moving up and be an effective SP with the Angels,
Brendan Gawlowski
Needs a better breaking ball.
scottsjunk1981
Any new rumors about whether and when there will be an R5 draft? Have you heard of any teams drawing a meaningfully different line than in most seasons?
Brendan Gawlowski
Haven't done any true reporting on this, but the scouts I sat with weren't optimistic.
Churlayla
Caden Bodine is catching MLB games by June?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure, why not.
GB
Any plans to add a scouting report to Yostin Pena?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes he'll get an extended writeup when we do NYY. I suspect they'll be fairly early in the list cycle.
wheelhouse
I’ve read that the yankees’ terrible fundamentals permeate their whole system down through the minors. Is that what you’ve seen, and how long would it take to address? Years?
Brendan Gawlowski
It does, they're really sloppy. In theory it could be a fairly quick fix.
jazzrunner12
Do the Tigers give Valencia 400 at bats next year? That was quite an impressive debut but he's 26 not 23. Also, do the Angels let Nelson Rada take over CF for most of the year?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's a tricky one to plan around, because the approach is aggressive/exploitable and you don't want to go into the year with him as a starter and have no Plan B. At the same time, he can be both really flawed and a lot worse next year… and still be a guy you want to give 500+ PA's anyway. So, yes, tentatively.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for the second question, this depends as much on how they want to man-manage Trout as it does on Rada's talent. I suspect, one way or the other, he'll play out there plenty. You might have to wait a bit for him to be the everyday guy.
wheelhouse
What do you attribute it to? Is it a question of the players they acquire or a lack of coaching emphasis? It’s bizarre to me that it’s such a glaring embarrassment on their big league squad and they’ve never done anything to correct it in their system
Brendan Gawlowski
This is a follow up to the Yankees question… Probably a little bit of both? It's not like any of the players or coaches want to see errors or whatnot. But, clearly there's an apparatus where both the acquisition groups and the coaching/dev staffs are willing to live with it if the guy can otherwise play.
canderson20
Do you have any insight on how teams decide who is going to play in the AFL? Thinking of a guy like Braden Nett who could seemingly use some extra innings due to time on IL this year compared to Kenya Huggins who had mostly a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
Varies from team to team. Some see it as a valuable place to get innings/extra AB's, others couldn't care less and send a bunch of orgs to fill out a roster.
Brendan Gawlowski
I will say: If I was a player, I don't know if I'd want to go to the AFL. The atmosphere in the park is lethargic, the competition is just okay, a lot of the players/coaches don't want to be there, some of the rule experiments might be frustrating… It's not for everybody.
rainingmozzarella
Any idea why Milbrandt had issues throwing strikes in AAA? 64.4% strike rate in AA down to 57.4% in AAA. That's a huge decline. Was it issues getting acclimated to the different ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would just be speculating. The ball is a common issue for guys jumping to AAA. Both because they're developing feel for it but also because some guys don't get nearly the same movement and batters don't chase to the same degree.
Phil
There was a funny question in the Red Sox post mortem press conference–a reporter asked Craig Breslow if he would draft Craig Breslow (I think the implication would be that, as an analytics/Driveline guy, he only cares about velocity and spin). Breslow averred that he would–that he would recognize himself as someone with the ability to induce weak contact, regardless of the approach. But Breslow was drafted in teh 26th round (which I don't think still exists?)–how would, in fact, a guy like that, an ivy league LOOGY type with unimpressive velo. fare today? Would anyone draft Craig Breslow?
Brendan Gawlowski
With the caveat that I have only the vaguest feel for what Breslow's game looked like in college… He probably had some kind of standout or outlier trait, whether it was command, deception, changeup quality, I don't know. With his arm strength, it's hard to imagine he'd have been selected early, and while he might've been someone that would get taken in the 12th or 18th round today, it's possible he wouldn't be selected at all. Obviously, I think, the shorter draft and quicker development trajectory are filtering out guys who would develop into big leaguers in another context.
philly
Would be curious to hear any AFL thoughts on Flewelling. I thought it odd Tampa would send a young catcher coming off a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
He looked good, only saw him play one game, but liked the approach and swing. Personally, I'd take him over Bodine.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Brock Wilken. Is there still hope?
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe as a bench bat.
scottsjunk1981
What's your take on players who far exceed expectations in their rookie seasons and then fall back to being replacement-ish? Did the league adjust? Did they just start on a favorable part of the random walk? As a Nats fan, I'm specifically looking at Parker and Irvin and worrying about Alvarez.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sometimes the league adjusts, sometimes guys are able to execute their stuff for a stretch in a way that they can't over the long haul.
Churlayla
Bold prediction: Boston fans throw something/one in the harbor if Arias isn't at the 6 on day one.
Brendan Gawlowski
Every fanbase has its overreactors…
vottogoat
Any thoughts from Michael Arroyo's cup of coffee in the majors this year? Chance to be a regular next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't play much, unfortunately, bizarre that the M's gave Weston Wilson so many AB's down the stretch. When he did play, he kept on doing the same things he's always done…
Churlayla
Do you have prospects you can't contain your excitement about or has your career taught you to stay relatively 'flat' and wait for things to play out thru the minors?
Brendan Gawlowski
I enjoy the journey.
canderson20
Cardinals brass reported they're going to have Rainiel start working 3b into the mix for him this offseason. If he takes to the position, would it move him up or down the rankings?
Brendan Gawlowski
Steady.
tdmoc
Any big takeaways from your first (nearly) full year working here?
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing earth shattering. There are a lot of people within the game who read this stuff… I like being able to cover the game globally and write things like the Brandon Valenzuela re-eval and (especially) the pro scouting piece…
OranguTongs
Anyone down in Arizona who looks like the next Jonah Tong?
Brendan Gawlowski
GDI.
Churlayla
Joseph Dzwiera is in the BAL rotation by mid-season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I suspect he'll get a look by that point, at least…
Churlayla
Nelson Rada? Raudi Rodriguez is the stud and he'll come off the top rope to remind you if need be! Lol
Brendan Gawlowski
– glances at Angels Roster Resource – There's… room for both of them.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'm going to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for stopping by, I'll be back in the normal Tuesday window again next week. Enjoy the postseason and see you soon.
Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the NLDS Game 3. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Dodgers at the Braves and the Brewers at the Padres. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
We are going to open the chat up at 5:30 PM ET.
si.or.no
What's the difference between a chat and a game thread? Is a game thread a no-moderation-queue chat?
Sean Dolinar
Correct, this is just an open game thread. So more casual. People can interact with each other rather than having staff facilitate everything. Less friction.
Paul
The MVP Yeti arrived last week. Looks great! Thank you and keep up the good work!
Sean Dolinar
Welcome everyone!
Bacterun
Wishing all a happy "hope the dodgers lose" day!
lzfreak
This is such a juicy pitching matchup! Feels like a game 1
Sean Dolinar
I gotta get some polls up!
Rich Hill's Fastball
The pitching matchup is so good that this game will definitely end 11-6
lzfreak
Thoughts on Ohtani batting 5th?
TKDC
Yeah, is that a “he’s not himself” thing or a “he’s not a good matchup with Sale” thing?
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
All the Sale discourse has people underrating the heck outta Yamamoto today
Bacterun
I voted for him to get pulled early….but thats more a hope than thinking he's not amazing. As a Jays fan i know all to well how he can take over a game
Bacterun
Don't expect it to change to much, but maybe he'll benefit from seeing a few batters worth of pitches before he goes to bat
Phil
Before checking just now I had no idea when this game started, or when the next one did, and these two start times would not have been in my top ten guesses. Definitely not staying up for the late game.
lzfreak
MLB's reluctance to have multiple playoff games on at once is annoying
Sean Dolinar
I don't get why CLE game started at 5PM yesterday and today's is 6PM. Dodgers being a West Coast team vs midwest teams? 🤷♂️
lzfreak
I think both games being pacific time is the difference
Jon Becker
Hi everyone!
Sean Dolinar
I still haven't put the 👋 emoji in yet!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Hi Jon!
lzfreak
Oh wait this is in Atlanta lol
Matt Martell
If Sale were a wide receiver, he would've gotten his foot down on the bag for the first out
Matt Martell
Also, hi
Jon Becker
Hi Matt!
Jon Becker
Sean hasn't added the 👋 emoji yet
Sean Dolinar
Someone submitted 4 PRs today that I need to review.
lzfreak
Kim paying homage to the Yankees defense
hamandcheese
Sure would rather have Jorge Mateo…
rhyde1990
Lets say the Rays and Dodgers ended up meeting in a 2020 rematch. Could the Rays style of play (lots of contact, small ball, etc) end up being a bad matchup for the Dodgers pitching (swing and miss stuff), or more of a repeat of how last year's WS turned out?
Rich Hill's Fastball
A factor here is that the Dodgers' fielding is generally much better than, to pick a random team, the Yankees'.
rhyde1990
I thought the same thing since the Dodgers IF ranked well in OAA this year, but so did the Yankees and then last night happened 😂
Jon Becker
Ohtani is certainly capable of taking ugly swings but goodness that was especially ugly
Matt Martell
Yes, I think, especially if Ohtani is broken
Jonathan Smith
That Sale arm angle and slider movement will break a man
Rich Hill's Fastball
Camera angle won't do hitters any favors tonight
Jon Becker
Looks beautiful in Atlanta and it is in fact 25 degrees colder there than it was in LA for Game 1, so everything is weird about this series so far
bosoxforlife
This has to be the best matchup, pitcher wise, in any Game 3 ever played.
Phil
Good mailbag question. Could be investigated with career WAR or same-year WAR, maybe.
Jon Becker
It's been DAYS since Matt asked me to do a mailbag question, I may have to look into this for this week
Matt Martell
@ me next time
Matt Martell
If you submit this as a question to mailbag@fangraphs.com, we'll answer it this week!
Jon Becker
That is a very emotional challenge from Acuña
bosoxforlife
Has anybody ever seen a left-handed hitter who was a good matchup for Sale? 6'6" from deep down. I would pull a Kruk and just head back to the dugout.
Jon Becker
Eric Hosmer absolutely owned him somehow, .346/.370/.538
Rich Hill's Fastball
Because Hosmer didn't use "analytics," Jon!
Jon Becker
Just cannot burn that with nobody on and one out in the first
hamandcheese
Acuna is awful at challenging.
Jonathan Smith
Not a good challenge there
bosoxforlife
What a ridiculous challenge!
Matt Martell
Bad challenge
Rich Hill's Fastball
Do we think Smith's glove movement could've impacted Acuña challenging there?
bosoxforlife
I will attempt to put together a coherent question.
rhyde1990
Great pitching matchups that come to mind for me in the last 25 or so years- Clemens vs Schilling, Beckett vs Pettite was pretty tight in 03, Lee vs Sabathia in 2009, Lincecum vs Lee a couple games, Lester vs Wainwright had a good duel if I remember correctly
RonaldRaygun
Randy Johnson faced Greg Maddux in 2001
rhyde1990
oh thats right Ronald, forgot about that
bosoxforlife
Please identify that breaking pitch that Sale throws. It has been called a slider for years but doesn't look like any slider, short quick break, that I have ever seen.
Rich Hill's Fastball
I dunno what to call it besides "filthy" (okay, maybe a slurve)
bosoxforlife
That fastball under the hands to righties is pretty tough to hit as well.
Phil
Pedro-Roger in the 99 ALCS was a game 3, now that think of it
bosoxforlife
Great catch! That does beat this and by quite a bit.
bohs and os
Why just casually toss it over to first the second time given the rules?
Jon Becker
Sale has the Goods tonight
Jon Becker
These are the insights your Membership fees pay for, folks
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
Credit to the Dodgers for at least running up the pitch count
lzfreak
What makes this particular game 3 matchup crazier for me is that it's the first series for the Dodgers. They're set up and Yamamoto is still only their third most trusted guy. Their rotation is absurd!
Matt Martell
The greatest miracle in sports is whenever anybody gets a hit off Chris Sale
bosoxforlife
I am beginning to think that when Sale's arm is attached he could be similar to the God of Arms, Nolan Ryan. Sale might pitch into his 40's.
Phil
Just take away his bicycle.
Jonathan Smith
Pumping 99 at that arm angle at 37 is just incredible.
lzfreak
He did miss quite a bit of time in his 30s. But this Atlanta chapter has been impressive
lzfreak
Smoltz: "That was a true sacrifice"
Ben Clemens
That was a sweet play by Yamamoto there. I mean, totally unnecessary and no added value. But man, fun to watch
Ben Clemens
How can he even get close to first with that setup? impressive
Rich Hill's Fastball
Harris had that stolen standing up, wow
bosoxforlife
The chats haven't mentioned the explosion in offensive bunting. I am of the opinion that as pitching continues to get tougher to hit we are going to see more and more attempts, but hopefully not pure sacrifices with a man on 1st
Rich Hill's Fastball
Bunting for a hit has always been a relatively smart gamble if the pitching is good enough. Sacrifices…not so much, and I think these playoffs have generally demonstrated that teams agree
fincampbell05
I imagine the run expectancy proposition from straight up sacrificing (runner on first, none out -> runner on second, one out) would get even worse as pitchers get better, right
lzfreak
Nice play by Dubon
bosoxforlife
Dubon is my choice for the most underappreciated player in the game today.
Sean Dolinar
I wish they wouldn't cut the ump cam in the middle of a pitch like that.
Ben Clemens
That was a super fun play by Dubon and I am really divided about how tough it was. Like, pretty tough! But surely not the best catch we've seen these playoffs. That low wall makes it hard for my brain. Because I'm like what a robbery
Ben Clemens
but actually the really hard part was getting there and absorbing the contact, not like he had to leap super high
lzfreak
This postseason has had more catcher's interference than expected
Jon Becker
Anyone else spot Baldy on Baldwin's chest protector? Not sure I'd love that nickname if I was him
TKDC
I think it’s a rule that every catcher’s nickname is just the first syllable of their first or last name plus a “y”
bosoxforlife
They must be taking lessons from Jacoby Ellsbury on how to induce catcher's interference.
Rich Hill's Fastball
If memory serves, Ohtani last reached on catcher's interference in game 5 of the '24 World Series
Antonio Bananas
How many pitches does Weiss give Sale? Lots of stress so far
Ben Clemens
I'm super interested in this!
Ben Clemens
I've had Sale on my mind a lot, what with writing about him and all. Feels like there are not a ton of moving parts to atlanta's strategy, but 'what do we do with Sale' is a massive and variable question
Rich Hill's Fastball
I feel like Weiss will push Sale a bit too far, whenever that is
trmackey
I feel like Sale will push himself further than Weiss will.
beanbong
Provided he doesnt start getting knocked around, I think you could see 110-115
beanbong
After the Freeman & Hernandez flyouts, kinda looks like they got the juiced ball in this one
lzfreak
That splitter is filthy
jzmaxson27
I feel like this is the sickest pitching matchup I have watched all year.
jzmaxson27
It's so rare that a highly billed on really lives up to the billing. But damn.
Antonio Bananas
These quick Yamamoto innings gotta be making Sale's stressful innings even worse right? No breaks
fincampbell05
Definitely but Sale is also a sicko
Antonio Bananas
He hasn't really been hit all that well which is encouraging. 3 infield hits
Antonio Bananas
Does Dubon make these plays at SS?
beanbong
I don't really understand what they're hoping to get out of Kim. What does he provide that someone like Jarvis doesn't other than standing in the right handed batters box
bosoxforlife
I have a very warm spot in my heart for Enrique Hernandez. His 2021 season with the Red Sox was something special and since I have no rooting interest I will enjoy his moment.
lzfreak
I guess we're doing October Enrique Hernandez again
Ben Clemens
Yamamoto is just DEALING. Was looking at Savant and this stat is kinda wild. He has 9 whiffs in 17 swings. Sale has 8 whiffs in 31 swings
Ben Clemens
And like, Sale looks sharp too!
Ben Clemens
worrisome stat for Sale, though: he's allowed 5 hard-hit balls so far, which is how many he allowed in his whole last start. Yamamoto has allowed zero, because jeez
Ben Clemens
er, six….
Rich Hill's Fastball
Can't rob that one!
Ben Clemens
I must not have been paying attention in previous Freeman visits to Atlanta but man, lot of booing!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Oh, this is new!
Ben Clemens
ah, well that explains it
TKDC
Did he say something? It’s weird. But at the same time this is the playoffs not the regular season.
Davy Andrewsedited
Hello, friends. How is playoff Erique possible? How is it possible?
lzfreak
I wonder if someone told him every day in the regular season that it's a playoff game if he'd be a Hall of Famer
Ben Clemens
like I guess I kind of remember it? But in my head it was kind of a mixed reaction, not this
lzfreak
Freeman was in quite a power outage before the playoffs. Seems to be back to normal now
Antonio Bananas
This feels insurmountable
trmackey
Well I think there's less curiosity on how deep Sale lasts now…
Phil
Davy, your article today has me looking to see if infielders are smelling the ball. I hope you're happy.
Davy Andrews
This makes me deeply happy. Honestly, that was some of the most fun writing I've done in a while and I stand by the idea one million percent.
Ben Clemens
Tough inning here for Sale, Weiss needs to start thinking about what to do. Last six hitters all put the ball in play:
103 mph grounder single xBA .380
94 mph liner out xBA .730
107 mph homer xBA .870
98 mph groundout xBA .230
103 mph homer xBA .580
108 mph lineout xBA .880
Davy Andrews
Ben, how are you doing?
Ben Clemens
I'm good. Getting all amped up for tonight's recap
Davy Andrews
You get amped? I get stressed.
Jon Becker
This has very quickly devolved from “alpha pitching duel” into “Sale is probably going to be out of the game after five innings trailing by multiple runs.” Gonna see a lot of The Raptor (Brent Suter) today, methinks
Davy Andrews
Hey Becker! I almost asked for your help coming up with puns for my article this morning. Did I blow it?
Jon Becker
I thought you did great 🙂
Davy Andrews
Oh, I just meant is that a particular skill of yours. Seems like it would be.
Sean Dolinar
We can wave now.
Matt Martell
Becker is FanGraphs' leading Pun-dit!
Matt Martell
Baumann doesn't count – there is no word to describe what he does
fincampbell05
I'm sure this is not a popular opinion, and I'm sure it's colored by anti-Dodgers sentiment, but I really don't like watching Yamamoto pitch. Something about these weak contact/BABIP merchant pitchers just grinds my gears. And his windup is weird too.
lzfreak
As a neutral fan I completely disagree
jzmaxson27
He says right before he blows a high 97 mph fastball by Albie's for his 7th K of the game.
bosoxforlife
I am the antithesis of you. I grew up watching Mel Parnell and Whitey Ford do exactly that and prefer that to today's TTO game.
fincampbell05
I mean yeah he's very good of course
Ben Clemens
Yeah I'm with you, @lzfreak. Yamamoto is one of my favorit pitchers to watch
Ben Clemens
In the same way that I love watching Soto hit
Ben Clemens
like probably my least favorite pitcher to watch, relative to skill, is Blake Snell
lzfreak
I used to be on the anti-Snell-watching train but last year's playoffs won me over. Felt like he was attacking the zone better and working quickly and effectively
MadMonk
as a Padres fan, the year he won the Cy Young with us, it was frustrating whenever he pitched, not enjoyable to watch.
Ben Clemens
and Yamamoto is kind of reverse Snell
Jon Becker
I still can’t really fathom how he can spin a curveball that beautiful from that arm slot
Antonio Bananas
With the infield hits, catchers interference, quick Yamamoto innings, all stressing Sale it's not a surprise he got hit hard.
Antonio Bananas
Was exhausting just watching those innings
Phillip Denny
how much longer does Kiké do this before we grudgingly admit that clutch *may* be a thing for *some* players?
Antonio Bananas
Or is he incredibly un-clutch the rest of the time?
Rich Hill's Fastball
fwiw, Kiké has discussed how his ADHD does negatively affect his focus during the regular season but helps him during the playoffs. Take that for what you will.
Phillip Denny
this may be a tomayto – tomahto situation tbh
lzfreak
I wonder if there's an inefficiency in sports psychology or something where a team could try to unlock value by getting guys to focus/perform at peak more often. Not sure what that looks like
Phil
I think it's well established that there is such a thing as clutch–it's just not predictive. Just because it's not predictive doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
fincampbell05
Yeah personally I really enjoy pitchers like Snell. Guys who look like they're launching grenades rather than pea-shooting, if that makes any sense. Just a random person-to-person thing I guess
Ben Clemens
100%. personal preference is why baseball is fun. if we all liked the same stuff, the sport would not grab me the same way
Phillip Denny
Man Shohei frequently gets spooked on the inside corner like that
Matt Martell
Hate to say it, but I agree with Smoltz there — bad challenge by Ohtani. Don't challenge in a 3-0 count with nobody on and your team up 3-0. Clearly an emotional challenge there
Antonio Bananas
I think he's pressing a bit because he's not hitting up to his standard. Same reason why Acuna challenged his IMO
TKDC
Ohtani and Acuna both made bad challenges on essentially the same pitch.
Phillip Denny
Shohei's plate knowledge up, down, and out are very good. Inside, it's very poor.
zapper
Best inning of the game for Sale. The Dodgers need to knock him out in the 6th and put that Braves' bullpen to work.
David
I will be curious to see the evolution of challenging pitches if it stays around for very long at all. The other night there was a pitch clock violation and, it happens so rarely now, I had nearly forgotten it was a thing.
zapper
Nice game by Dubon, stellar catch and now a leadoff single.
Rich Hill's Fastball
I haven't adjusted my emotional priors enough from 2021-2023. Austin Riley still terrifies me as an opponent.
Jon Becker
I really like Snitker using the Rowdy card here, Yamamoto has reverse splits but ultimately is great against everyone and Rowdy has a better chance of running into one
Jon Becker
Apologies to Walt Weiss, who is the actual manager of the Braves
Antonio Bananas
Rowdy Tellez looks like the bad guy Mets hitter from Rookie of the Year
Ben Clemens
Dubon for Nick Allen was a great trade for the Braves, huh? They basically won on both ends
Davy Andrews
Losing Nick Allen is never a good thing.
Ben Clemens
like, they got Allen's best year, then moved him at the high point
Anonymous Member #46
selling high =/= selling tall
cashgod27
If you're pinch-hitting HSK with a guy who has 11 PAs this year, why start him at all?
jzmaxson27
Man, really had that rowdy stinger locked and loaded.
Davy Andrewsedited
I love that Rowdy ended the year with a .506 xwOBA.
bosoxforlife
I missed the Braves moving Dom Smith for Rowdy Tellez.
Matt Martell
Of all people to walk
jonmberra
Surprised that wasn’t a double play.
zapper
So Yamamoto can speak more English now. The interpreter stayed in the dugout for that mound conference.
jonmberra
It would be funny if they weren’t talking and it was just stalling/rest move.
lzfreak
Maybe the pitching coach learned Japanese
zapper
Acuna left his playoff hits on the field for Venezuela during this year's Classic.
Jon Becker
A 3-1 perfectly placed splitter is just diabolical
Davy Andrews
Weird how diabolical is so much better a word than devilish.
Ben Clemens
One of my playoff resolutions was to be less annoyed by Smoltz. And for the most part, I think I've done it well. But I've been spiraling since he compared Ozzie Albies to Chipper Jones
Ben Clemens
Look, we know you don't know many players that aren't Braves. But can he be Terry Pendleton or something?
Anonymous Member #46
Mark Lemke with power
Ben Clemens
i mean, perfect
Ben Clemens
Chipper is 6'4"
lzfreak
One thing I haven't seen mentioned with all the Sale discourse: might he be in play for a potential game 5? It would be somewhat similar to the game 3 wildcard series move, but an inning or two from him in that scenario could be huge for the Braves
Rich Hill's Fastball
He'd definitely be available for this, yeah.
Antonio Bananas
I think the WC series is the plan moving forward. Start on 5 days rest and use his throwing day to put him in relief
Anonymous Member #46
I love how these chats feel like we're just running amok in the FanGraphs work Slack.
Sean Dolinar
Our Slack isn't typically this interesting.
Jon Becker
The most exciting our Slack gets is when Meg accidentally sends the main channel that she’s getting lunch and then she’ll get to Baumann’s piece, so we all get to ask what’s for lunch. Riveting stuff
Anonymous Member #46
Asking what's for lunch is a time-honored FanGraphs tradition.
bosoxforlife
I got the chicken and the veggies cut up for the between games stir fry and I will rejoin this very interesting chat.
ruddurball
I got my dan dan noodle prep done before first pitch. Hope your dinner is tasty!
Ben Clemens
dan dan noodle? tell me more
ruddurball
I use the recipe from kenji Lopez alt “the wok” but sub peanut butter for tahini becuase of a sesame allergy. Super fast and easy. They also suggest using capers instead of pickled mustard root and it works!
zapper
If the Dodger's have the lead in the 9th who will get the save opportunity, Diaz or "shaky lately" Tanner Scott?
jzmaxson27
Darkhorse option of Evan Phillips
Rich Hill's Fastball
This NLDS features two of the game's best organists.
Ben Clemens
I think I'd even be willing to say 'the game's best two organists'
lzfreak
Having been to all 30 parks, this was my take as well
bosoxforlife
I envy you. I have been to 67 ball parks with my passion for minor league ball.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Roberts is going to have some VERY interesting bullpen decisions coming up
lzfreak
Let Yamamoto go 9!
bosoxforlife
I upvote that!
zapper
Wow, no challenge.
Jeremy Fox
Is Matt Olson the highest-waisted player in baseball?
Anonymous Member #46
Sean Hjelle
Jeremy Fox
Sean Hjelle is long-limbed all the way round. Olson combines long legs with a (comparatively) short torso and short arms.
Ben Clemens
how about Carl Edwards Jr? or is his an optical illusion based on being so slender?
Jos
watching players do ABS calculus in real time is such a fun new aspect of baseball strategy
Antonio Bananas
How good are we at measuring the impact of challenges? Olson probably challenges that high strike and wins if Acuna hadn't wasted one
Neat
Very cool ump cam curveball
zapper
Do the umpires get told during the game about calls they missed that did not get challenged?
Jos
id imagine they get some kind of game report afterward breaking down all the calls rather than anything mid game
Davy Andrews
Yeah, postgame report. Also, you might recall that last year the league tightened up the buffer zone around the edge of the plate, which resulted in more strike calls.
beanbong
I’ve never seen a switch hitter change sides against the same pitcher in all my life.
Antonio Bananas
Freeman could have had 3 HRs this game as hard as he's hit them
Davy Andrews
I was just thinking of that line from Moneyball, when David Justice would come back to the dugout after hitting one as hard as he could and watching it die on the warning track: "That used to be gone."
Antonio Bananas
If you could add 20 minutes of that movie to cover Hudson/Zito/Mulder, who do you cast?
Davy Andrews
This is a Matt question if I've ever heard oe, so I'll just say Andy Serkis for all three.
Matt Martell
I like the idea of casting one person as all three, because they were so inconsequential to the season that they might as well all be the same person — in the eyes of the filmmakers anyway
Keaton Arneson
They also ignored Chavez and Tejada… So their 5 best players. And Lidle by WAR
Matt Martell
Back to FanGraphs Slack for a moment… Here's a real thing Baumann asked me two weeks ago: "Do you think you and I talk about Bulworth more than any two coworkers in the world, or do we just talk about Bulworth more than any two people in the BBWAA?"
Davy Andrews
I have never seen that movie, but in ninth grade, when the JV basketball team went to preseason camp, my friend Justin and I roomed together and he brought the soundtrack. He played Ghetto Superstar on repeat for the entire week.
Matt Martell
Great news, Davy – I just bought the DVD on eBay. Come over and watch it during the offseason
Davy Andrewsedited
Is it…good? Isn't there a part where Warren Beatty raps? Am I thinking of the right movie?
Sean Dolinar
Slightly late to this. We had Sale at 5.65 for innings pitch…so 5.2 IP in our written convent. And he pitched 5.0 IP.
Sean Dolinar
Median 6 IP. The 5.65 was the average.
Davy Andrews
Smart chat.
Matt Martell
You are thinking of the right movie. And it is good! It's absolutely bonkers, but good!
Jonathan Smith
I know they set this up for the CS but Yama as your number 3 is just downright disgusting. This guy is an ace of all aces.
jzmaxson27
I feel like there is a legitimate argument to be made that he is the most important player to them during this run of back to back titles and the attempt for the third.
lzfreak
Oh yeah they definitely don't win it without him last year
Jonathan Smith
And if I recall he struggled early on in his first year? What a massive payoff for him to be this strong.
Michael Baumann
Hi guys, heard you were talking about Bulworth
Davy Andrews
I just laughed so hard.
Matt Martell
If you command+F "Bulworth" in my Slack messages with Baumann, you get 14 hits
Michael Baumannedited
I'm shocked it's not five times as many
zapperedited
Yamamoto starts the 8th to deal with the nine hole pinch hitter and Vesia comes in for Baldwin.
Matt Martell
Guys… Bulworth features an original score by Ennio Morricone!!!
zapper
Guess not with all the hand slapping in the dugout.
Michael Baumann
Gotta run. I just took out a hit on myself so my daughter can collect on my life insurance policy.
jzmaxson27
I figured with your article titles you were already living a life unencumbered by focus groups and handlers. I'm excited to see where it all goes from here!
Matt Martell
Well done
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
Organist honoring Mii-guel Rojas 🙂
Matt Martell
^This is a Bulworth reference for those of you who haven't had the pleasure of seeing it yet
David
My (disingenuous) pet theory on Ohtani's poor second half is that he had a second kid in June and is just not sleeping well at all with the adjustment. Ask me how I know.
Davy Andrews
Has anybody on staff seen The Rock 150 times or so? Would be nice to have someone to talk to about that particular movie.
jzmaxson27
It is the best Bruckheimer movie. Honorable mention to Con Air of course.
Matt Martell
Put some respect on THIEF
Davy Andrews
Oh, I have been meaning to see that!
Matt Martell
I also own Thief! We can do a Bulworth/Thief double feature!
jzmaxson27
Guess I've got an addition to my watch list!
Davy Andrews
This sounds fun, but the whiskey taste test has to come first. Also, I have been informed by an interested party that it needs to be at your apartment.
Matt Martell
Whiskey taste test DURING the Thief/Bulworth double feature!
Davy Andrews
No way. The taste test is a serious work assignment.
Davy Andrews
Which we should probably get on the calendar, actually.
Matt Martell
Wow this has really turned into FG Slack
Phil
I just saw Longenhagen's piece about restricting outfield positioning in the AFL. Sounds very fishy to me (I don't mean Eric's reporting, I mean the idea reported on). Might not teams want outfielders to work on their defense, inckuding pre-pitch positioning, in Arizona?
Matt Martell
Teams might want to, but MLB views the AFL as a low stakes place to try stuff out. That is more important to the powers that be than whether minor league outfielders can correctly read a card telling them where to play.
Doug Gray
This is probably why they are only doing it in one stadium (this year). It's 14 games unless I counted wrong. The Salt River guys will get a little less "normal" outfield work, though.
Phil
Yeah. But then I also wonder whether that's enough games to see if it has an effect. But I guess it's nore of a heck, why not move than a carefully developed experiment.
Ben Clemens
Davy I make a decent number of The Rock references. But my wife has somehow not seen it even though we live in SF. It's a travesty
Davy Andrews
My wife fell asleep while watching it, and it hurt my soul.
Davy Andrews
She also fell asleep during Raiders of the Lost Ark, and I have an amazing cell phone video of her snoozing peacefully on the couch while John Williams' thrilling Indiana Jones score blares in the background.
Matt Martell
I know he has played in four MLB seasons, but I refuse to believe Brewer Hicklen is a real player
zapper
Don't let Hicklen on, 70 speed.
Ben Clemens
I mainly remember Hicklen because when we did the crowdsourced OOTP Brewers in 2020, I traded for everyone with Brewer in their name: Brewer Hicklen and Colten Brewer
Phil
I just realized Hicklen was in fact a Brewer. . . for 5 PAs in 2024.
Rich Hill's Fastballedited
Who faces the Olson-Albies-Harris corridor in the ninth? Ideally that'd be Scott so I'm surprised he's being deployed here. Edit: meant to submit this at the start of the inning.
lzfreak
We getting Diaz in the 9th?
Yer Main Guy
Why can't position players just stand where they wanna stand, Manfred?
Rich Hill's Fastball
For those unaware, Mason Miller was just placed on the paternity list
Rich Hill's Fastball
His Padres play an elimination game in half an hour
Keaton Arneson
I know why teams put in their best relievers when losing a close game, but at what point is letting a team see that reliever over and over in a series a hindrance?
Phil
There's a name for this but I can't remember what it is
Phil
Familiarity penalty, I guess. Discussed in an Effectively Wild episode, looks like (and which I vaguely remember).
Davy Andrews
Yeah, there have been some SABR Research Journal articles about it as well.
jzmaxson27
Should have challenged that one right?
Rich Hill's Fastball
Down 0-2 in the count, with one challenge left, you have to be DAMN sure you're right
bosoxforlife
But if the game went extra innings the Dodgers would get another challenge so he should have used it.
zapper
The Braves' pen owns the Dodgers.
Davy Andrews
Austin Wells would have stretched that into a triple.
Phil
Not dead yet.
Matt Martell
Maybe Ozzie Albies actually is Chipper Jones!
bosoxforlife
Diaz has been good (okay?) recently but I see this a risky move by Roberts.
lzfreak
How do the Dodgers always spend like 9 figures on the bullpen and come October nobody is trustworthy
Rich Hill's Fastball
I choose to watch (and love) the Moneyball movie as a piece of narrative art, not a documentary
bosoxforlife
I would trust Yamamoto in this spot.
lzfreak
Wonder if Kershaw is available for a token high leverage relief inning
Rich Hill's Fastball
Glasnow vs Mahle tomorrow!
bosoxforlife
The wok is hot and I will be back for the Brewers-Padres.
Ben Clemens
I ran off for a bit to set up for the next game. And to keep with my bit of criticizing the bad television personalities, did everyone else hear Derek Jeter bragging about how he 'told everyone about Yamamoto'? Oh, you mean the freaking world series MVP and one of the best pitchers in the world?
Ben Clemens
I like pizza. I don't go around yelling "I told you about pizza, don't act like I didn't" to people. Because, like, yeah.
Sean Dolinar
I have a friend who brags about their skill at finding pizza.
Ben Clemens
like, a specific pizza place? Because I think I'd accept 'i told you about yamamoto's ability to land a split for a strike' or something similar
Davy Andrews
Hey Jack!
Ben Clemens
or like, just their incredible food knowledge that pizza is good?
Ben Clemens
that said – hey, being compared to Derek Jeter isn't the worst thing in the world
Sean Dolinar
Not something specific. Though it tends to be Neapolitan/wood fire type pizza. Not like hole-in-the-wall finds.
Sean Dolinar
I had another friend that wanted to go to all the VPN-certified pizzerias she could find. One was near me. I went it and it was delightful.
Jack Dorfman
VPN-certified?
Jack Dorfman
Googled it, that seems like a good way to find new spots
Davy Andrews
Hey Jack! (This time in the right place.)
Jack Dorfman
Haha hey Davy!
bosoxforlife
Lunch tomorrow with my friend of 56 years will be at our favorite pizzaria. Great thin crust after a bowl of the best pasta fagioli I have found in my extensive travels.
Sean Dolinar
I should have added the pizza emoji too.
Davy Andrews
Everybody in this booth looks like their mom combed their hair for them on picture day.
MattStats5
Freddie Freeman just sealed his future as a studio analyst….helluva postgame interview.
Jack Dorfman
Excited for Playoff Piv feel like he'll come out chucking
lzfreak
So how should the Padres approach the lack of Miller here? Lean extra hard on Morejon and Rodriguez? Get weird with a starter in relief?
MattStats5
I get the paternity list thing, but now? Your team is facing elimination…tough decision, for sure.
Davy Andrews
Easy decision. Only decision.
lzfreak
Is anyone else bothered by how Amin pronounces "Contreras?" Sounds like he's saying "Contrerez"
Davy Andrews
Ok, yeah, I hear that.
bosoxforlife
Pivetta always frustrated me during his 5 years with the Red Sox. He always looked like he would do what he has shown with the Padres.
Davy Andrews
Yeah, how many Positional Power Rankings talked about his stuff versus his results?
lzfreak
Exciting Jackson play
Jack Dorfman
That did not feel like it was going to get caught wow
Sean Dolinar
I thought that was going to drop. He almost overran that too!
Davy Andrewsedited
Can't believe he held onto it given where it hit his glove.
bosoxforlife
Bauers isn't a contender for Comeback of the Year because he never was anything but he is a contender for biggest surprise of the year.
Jack Dorfman
Does Bryan Baker win AL Surprise of the Year?
bosoxforlife
He is on the ballot.
Brendan Smith
William Contreras being 28 and in the league for 7 seasons is shocking. Equally shocking is his 18.1 career bWAR. Quietly a top 5 catcher in the league consistently
bosoxforlife
He was #1 on the MLB position rankings at least once. I know I would like him to join his brother on the Red Sox.
war2d2
On the “bad broadcasters” topic: this booth. Pierzynski and Wainwright make me wish I wasn’t a baseball fan. Absolute tire fire.
lzfreak
Oh wow the Padres are batting an actual good major league hitter second in their lineup!
lzfreak
Is it just me or does Dustin May look leaner than the last time I saw him?
bosoxforlife
Who is surprised that the Brewers chose May over Harrison?
Jon Becker
Hopping back in quickly to say that’s the worst challenge of the year I think
Jon Becker
Now back to my snack of saltines, which are genuinely good even when not sick. No further questions
Davy Andrews
I finished the Saltines last night.
Davy Andrews
Though I was slathering them in sweetened hazelnut butter.
David
This is definitely the correct take
war2d2
The Nabisco mini-saltines are wonderful. Like un-cheesed Cheez-its.
war2d2
“I’m here to chew bubblegum and make terrible ABS challenges, and I’m fresh out of bubblegum.” — William Contreras
Brendan Smith
Dustin May 100!!!!
Davy Andrews
Must have killed Contreras not to challenge that one.
war2d2
Someone reminded him that the dugout is full of bubblegum. Literally littered with it.
bosoxforlife
It has been discussed so many times but what are these players thinking with these meaningless challenges. Are the coaches to blame?
Davy Andrews
I suspect there's a real concern about getting them too in their heads here. You want them to be aggressive, and you don't want them thinking about challenges when they're supposed to be hitting or catching. It's important, but not as important as driving the baseball or calling a good game!
Brendan Smith
Does Ty France Comeback Player of the Year count if he was coming back from mid?
Phil
The definition of a comeback should be the new controversy to replace the definition of a breakout. How good do you once have to have been to have a comeback?
war2d2
Man, Pivetta’s throwing some real wiffleball curves.
Jacob Richey
Brewers doing a great job working the count. Bauers and Turang both struck out but on 9+ pitches each. What’s Pivetta’s expected pitch count? can’t imagine it’s high given coming back from injury.
Davy Andrews
He hit 87 in the start before last, so it might be fairly high if he's dealing.
bosoxforlife
Another challenge in a low leverage situation. ????? What is going on with these guys?
Davy Andrews
What a bummer that pitching coach Chris Hook never gets to be the one to take out the pitcher.
lzfreak
My favorite was when Craig Counsell was the Brewers manager. You'd have Hook out to give council then Counsell would come with the hook.
war2d2
God willing he’ll aspire to managing, and then score one for nominative determinism
bosoxforlife
Which contract is a worse albatross, Bogaerts or Riley?
jzmaxson27
Depends on which owner is more spending averse.
Jacob Richey
ZIPS 3 yr projections still like Riley… or at least don’t factor in this year. Think Bogaerts contract is worse. More money, more years remaining, bogaerts is older, and decline to sub 2 WAR projected pretty quickly.
lzfreak
Murphy with the hilarious sound bite there
jzmaxson27
🤣🤣🤣
Jon Becker
Just have Murphy call the game
Davy Andrews
This is why he's manager of the year every year.
lzfreak
Is he gonna win it a third straight year? I'm not sure who else you'd give it to
jzmaxson27
Every now and then we get rewarded for having the sound on.
Jon Becker
Nothing against this booth, which I like, I just think they'd rather he call the game too
Jack Dorfman
Playoff game in Petco going on my bucket list
Jack Dorfman
atmosphere is so consistently fantastic
jzmaxson27
I guess the bunt paid off? I still don't like it.
bosoxforlife
It isn't luck that the Brewers and Guardians exceed their projections every year and often by a large amount. Vogt and Murphy haven't missed the playoffs yet. Why these teams mystify all the projection systems is impossible to quantify and it has to come down to something these managers understand that only a few have ever figured out.
This is historically where May starts tilting. But he seems like he has kept his cool a little better this year than years past
Jon Becker
May just jumped about eight feet in the air
jzmaxson27
He for sure thought it was gone off the bat.
Jack Dorfman
was going to say may must have a 50 inch vertical haha
bosoxforlife
Already down to 37 here in central CT. Time to bid adieu to my tomatoes. I will NOT waste my hard earned money on those red baseballs sold in a store.
Jack Dorfman
Looked like Salas tried to fake him out inside, set up away, then the pitch hung inside
jzmaxson27
Can only throw 92 down the pipe so many times Pivetta.
war2d2
This is dumb, right? I can’t be the only one who thinks this is dumb.
bosoxforlife
Davy, I dumped Prospectus when I found Fangraphs so the article is hidden to me. The system must be more important than the people or the Mets wouldn't be the laughingstocks they were this year with David Stearns, who got all the credit, at the helm. I strongly believe there are managers who instinctively know when and where to put the players in the best spots to maximize their production much more efficiently than computers. The Red Sox players, in their postmortem, appeared to almost have a mutiny over what they saw as the excessive use of computers in decision making.
lzfreak
Whoa that was ballsy
jzmaxson27
Exciting stuff!
Benny The Jet
Wow
bosoxforlife
Sending the runner on such a short fly ball is just what I was saying and is part of the reason the Brewers win. I don't think many 3rd base coaches would have sent Pratt. As a group 3rd base coaches are afraid of being seen as the man who sent the runner if he was thrown out
Antonio Bananas
Is PetCo the best of the corporate-named ballparks?
Antonio Bananas
By name I mean
Philedited
The problem with "best" is that there's a certain pleasure to be taken in the confusion of a bad one. In this regard the newly renamed Fifth Third Field (edit: it's actually Fifth Third Park) in Detroit should be a lot of fun, since it does not remotely sound like a meaningful three-word sequence.
Jack Dorfman
Used to love Safeco and Miller, Petco up there with Busch and Citizen's bank maybe?
Benny The Jet
Coors is good, plus the corporations who happened to be named pleasant sounding ballpark names like American Family Field and Great American Ballpark
asf123
Wrigley 😜
Phil
I was disappointed to realize that Great American is insurance. For some reason I was absolutely sure it was a hot dog brand, which would be much better and funnier.
Jack Dorfman
OFs playing deep stealing doubles
Jack Dorfman
Reminds me of Ben's barrels article from the summer, wonder if that's even more true in the yoffs
Ben Schneider
Joining now, what I've seen of the last couple innings has been a fun, tense game
Phil
This whole series has been like that.
Benny The Jet
We need 5 games of this series
antihustle
Absolutely
Ben Schneider
No one likes a parade of pitching changes, but they're more tolerable when both teams have a lot of electric guys coming in
Alan Sherman
reading the chat well behind, but I think the best corporate ballpark name was the original Arizona one. I think it was Bank One Ballpark and we got to just call it "the Bob"
David
Yeah, the local nicknames are where it's at. I thought "The Juice Box" was great in Houston.
Alan Sherman
Not just a local nickname, I called it the Bob as a Bay Area Giants fan
Alan Sherman
Also jokingly called the Coliseum "the Virus" in the years that McAfee had the naming rights
Phil
I spend a lot of time in Chicago for work–no one I know there bothers to learn the ever-changing name of the ballpark on the South Side. "Sox Park" is common (which also reflects the CTA's abbreviation for maps and schedules, which is just "Sox"), as is, naturally, "Comiskey."
Ben Schneider
I just read Eric's new article and now I'm thinking how that batted ball would be a boring routine out
Pedantic A-hole
Do you think that Cooper Pratt paid to have someone do that to his hair?
Antonio Bananas
Does PetCo have a local nickname?
Alan Sherman
I lived in San Diego for 8 years in college and after and I never heard one from other residents or at a couple of games a season
Alan Sherman
the radio announcer would often say "from the gaslamp quarter" but that's the neighborhood not the ballpark and obviously he's required to use the corporate name
Ben Schneider
Chisholm should learn from Turang there
Alan Sherman
If we could all learn second base defense from Turang, the world would be a better place
Jack Dorfman
Michael king in the game to close it down is fun
antihustle
Why is King so likeable
Ben Schneider
That looked like a swing to me
Antonio Bananas
We know Miller not being available hurts the Padres chance of winning. We know he did a thing about 9 months ago. Knowing those 2 things, what's the negative WPA of that thing he did 9 months ago?
Anonymous Member #46
Would be hilarious for the Padres to lose because of their closer's daddy issue.
Sean Dolinar
I like how wild these chats get after midnight.
showbusiness77
Yankees fan sad career of King traded for one year of Soto. Although if we would've won the dance, would've felt a BIT differently. Hindsight
showbusiness77
Why King used though? no tomorrow. Maybe treating it like a bullpen session. Would still be available for game X?
jms4
my king, Mike King
Ben Schneider
I think King will pitch in Game 5 on short rest if they get that far
Pedantic A-hole
Is Lara running?
Ben Schneider
Yes
fishnchips
Wowowowow
antihustle
So that's what defense should be like
Jack Dorfman
A great series
Jack Dorfman
ray and musgrove piggybacking tomorrow?
Pedantic A-hole
What a great ballgame! And series. Hope we get a game 5
Biscuit
What was the velocity on that last hit from Yelich?
Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALDS Game 2. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the White Sox at Guardians and Yankees at Rays. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
We are going to have Members Only Game Threads for the rest of the postseason. The next one will be tomorrow, October 6 at 6:00PM.
Sean Dolinar
Hi all!
Keaton Arneson
Hi Sean
Sean Dolinar
Everyone should respond to our polls. Including you, Keaton!
Sean Dolinar
Guardians are at 0% so I know you haven't voted yet.
Keaton Arneson
I didn't see the poll. Maybe we need a cool sound alert for it.
Yer Main Guy
Hi Sean and Keaton
Sean Dolinar
If you weren't in one of our Game Threads last week, all of you drive the chat. We do have writers that will drop in. Here are a few feature highlights:
– you can view the chat as a thread or chronologically.
– in the top right corner, the gear allows you to delay the messages coming in if your streaming service has a lot of latency
– we have polls that we will cycle through during the games.
– you can reply to messages or react with some emojis (this is new from last time)
Chad Young
I am going to try to hang out here, but I am not sure my nerves can take chatting while watching this.
Sean Dolinar
Which team are you nervous for?
Chad Young
I am a Guardians fan, but to add to my anxiety, I lived in Chicago for over a decade and so I have probably seen more Guardians-Sox games in my life than any other pair of teams.
Chad Young
Gavin needs to find that inside corner to lefties. Got a break on the 0-1 to Teel but can't count on that
Chad Young
Pretty solid inning for Williams. Not sure what happened there with Vargas, but good recovery. Suspect he was a little amped up and it impacted his control.
Chad Young
An underrated storyline in this one is the importance for the Guardians to jump out to a big early lead. It's not important for them, but I have to leave to pick up my daughter in a little over an hour and I would like to feel a little calmer when that happens.
Sean Dolinar
Low leverage while you run errands? Then they can make it close once you get back!
lzfreak
I wonder what kind of odds you could've gotten two years ago that the White Sox would be in a division series in 2026
Chad Young
You could have gotten crazy odds on that in March. Probably still in May to be honest.
Jason B
Maybe the Rockies and Angels are taking copious notes. "Try sucking waaaay less…hmmmm…."
Chad Young
Kay has stymied the Guards but that has less to do with him, specifically and more to do with the hand he uses. Guards had a 91 wRC+ vs. LHP this year, good for 25th in MLB. Cleveland's offense really improved late in the year, but lefties are an issue.
Chad Young
FWIW, the Sox are 5th in MLB in wRC+ vs. LHP (111), which may have been a factor in G1. Against RHP they are 17th with a 102
Keaton Arneson
I think Cleveland lead the AL in runs/game since the trade deadline or at least very close to it.
Chad Young
7th in MLB in runs scored, 6th in wRC+ since Aug 4
Chad Young
One huge difference between G1 and G2 already, Cleveland is making Kay work. Smith and Taylor in particular just cruised without having to throw many pitches.
I don't know who let me out to talk about baseball.
Sean Dolinar
(And the White Sox)
Keaton Arneson
They were third in AL in total runs, but played fewer games than CHI and TB
Chad Young
Going straight to another lefty here to face Adell feels like an odd choice, but I guess Newcomb was next up
Davy Andrews
(And Chad.)
Chad Young
Hi Davy!
Anonymous Member #46
Whoever drew this ALDS manager review just got a whole lot of fodder …
soddingjunkmail
Did they not have a righty up in the pen or something?
Chad Young
There's a smoke detector beeping in my house and that pitching change wasn't long enough to find it The search will continue after the inning, I guess
Davy Andrews
Just to be clear, you're ignoring a super loud smoke detector right now?
lzfreak
It does feel like we've gotten an inordinate number of lefties replacing lefties this postseason
Benny The Jet
These chats are awesome, thanks to everyone that put them together!
Davy Andrews
One that could be informing you of, say, a fire?
drplantwrench
angels legend sean newcomb vs angels legend jo adell
Benny The Jet
Is it safe to assume Grant Taylor is unavailable today?
soddingjunkmail
Feels like Venable is getting too cute here
Hazmat Corntail
Disaster 1st inning for ChiSox
Anonymous Member #46
Chad and Will Venable both, Davy.
Chad Young
The only fire in my house in the Guardians offense
Davy Andrews
Ok, but like, I'd still make sure of that were I you.
Davy Andrews
Though I suppose it depends on how much you like your house.
Chad Young
It's definitely just the "low battery" beep, but I appreciate the concern. I love watching my Guardians but not enough to let me house burn down with me in it, I promise!
Benny The Jet
Why does it feel like half the runs I've seen Cleveland score in my lifetime have been on infield hits
Davy Andrews
I don't know how long you've been alive, but since 2015 they actually rank right in the middle of the pack in infield hits.
Keaton Arneson
That's because half our lifetime is Willie Mays Hayes and Jake Taylor bunting.
Hazmat Corntail
This is probably the only place where I can say that I somehow remember Corbin Brenden being a .270 hitter as well
Chad Young
I am not 100% sure how to measure this, but it feels like you are right, Benny
Chad Young
IF hits, errors, bases loaded walks…they find ways to get runs without actually hitting the ball well
Benny The Jet
*The "This is fine" meme, but instead of coffee it's a playoff baseball game*
when are we going to be able to upload images to the chat
Davy Andrews
I assume this depends on how much Sean and Keaton trust you.
drplantwrench
so a rational person would say never
Sean Dolinar
Yeah, I want to, at least for the staff. I still have to talk to Meg and David about the moderation/trust.
lzfreak
It'll be interesting to see how Stephen Vogt finds his way into having Austin Hedges batting in a high leverage middle inning situation today
bosoxforlife
This understand this isn't a traditional chat but can I ask why all of a sudden closers are turning into Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers again?
Chad Young
I think in the postseason, teams have two sudden shifts in their thinking about pitcher usage: 1) every single out is crucial and if you can get it with your best arms, you do. 2) being well rested for the future isn't important any more, so if you have to burn your best arm to get the win, you do.
maximus74
because 1/2 the teams in the playoffs don't have more than 2 functional SP
Davy Andrews
Wait, this question wasn't about mustaches?
bosoxforlife
I seem to recall another athlete from Wilmington, NC
Chad Young
Little update: smoke detector was found, batteries were replaced, smoke detector was replaced, and zero pitches were missed. I am better in the clutch than any Cleveland hitter.
Davy Andrews
Next time try it while covered in midges.
Chad Young
You know, I was at the midges/Joba Chamberlain game! With Ottoneu creator Niv Shah!
Davy Andrews
That's amazing. Were the midges all over the stands too?
Chad Young
It really wasn't bad in the stands. They're attracted to the lights, I guess, so with the field all lit up, they all want to be down there.
lzfreak
Has anyone ever studied the "pitcher isn't effective after a long inning in the dugout" thing? It comes up all the time but doesn't seem to make much sense
Davy Andrews
Somebody must have. It seems like it'd be easy enough to do using retrosheet data. But I personally haven't seen it.
Chad Young
I haven't either. I get the logic – you get into a groove/routine, then you sit so long that you lose that rhythm. Plus, your arm gets cold and needs to loosen/warm up again. But…I can create a logical explanation for a LOT of things that don't really happen.
Davy Andrews
I like how everybody who strikes out in this game really hurries out of the batter's box.
Matt Martell
Hi everyone!
Davy Andrews
Matt!
Jon Becker
Hi Matt! And everyone else! ✌️⚾️✌️
Davy Andrews
Becker!
Matt Martell
My favorite fact about Gavin Williams is that he went to Cape Fear High School
Chad Young
Matt! Jon! It's a party!
war2d2
woooo ain’t no party like a Watching-Baseball-When-I’m-Supposed-To-Be-Working party woooo
drplantwrench
Jo Adell went to Seven Samurai High School
Chad Young
All of my fantasy teams are named after HS sports teams and I might have to add those two to the list for future teams.
Phillip
Curious to get y'all's thoughts on the super quick leash on Kay from CWS and how you think it'll impact them for the rest of the series. I get you want your starter to go longer, and leash is short in the post season. Think Kay throws again tomorrow or something if they're super tight on pen innings?
Chad Young
No clue what their plans are, but with an off-day tomorrow and after G4, he should be available for G3 and G5, for sure. Or G4 and G5. Whatever they want to do.
Matt Martell
I went to the Guardians' spring training game, played against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, in 2025. Gavin Williams started it and struck out approximately 57 batters in three innings. Looked like the nastiest pitcher I'd ever seen. Don't know what to make of that, but felt it was worth sharing
bosoxforlife
Venable was playing games.
Matt Martell
I have no idea, re: Anthony Kay. He didn't look sharp, but it was such a quick hook that it had to have been planned.
lzfreak
Boy Kwan looked safe there in real time
Davy Andrews
I sort of thought it looked like he gave it 98% and 100% would've done it.
Benny The Jet
Have modern coaching staffs potentially at least partially moved off of platoon based match ups to something based on pitch shapes and swing paths, or something of that nature? Feels like it might help explain at least some of the bullpen choices this postseason
Davy Andrews
That's definitely a consideration, but lefty-righty is still going to be a bigger factor most of the time.
Chad Young
I also think in this case, he just didn't want to let Kay let this get away early. The IBB to Adell tells you it wasn't about the matchup.
Davy Andrews
Does Chase Meidroth have a bit of a George Lucas look?
Davy Andrews
I think it's the beard.
war2d2
I think it’s the lack of any visible chin.
Davy Andrews
And the intentional use of the beard to make it look like there is.
war2d2
Kwan always looks vaguely sad/concerned. Every time I see him I think of the “hitman monkey finds no joy in his job” meme.
Chad Young
So those manager interviews are usually such a waste, but Venable saying the plan was for Kay and Newcomb to get through 12 hitters combined and acknowledging that the Kay hook wasn't really planned is interesting.
drplantwrench
bad challenge?
Chad Young
There should be a margin at which the challenge isn't lost. you don't get the call changed but you don't lose the challenge either.
Davy Andrews
No. No no no no.
Chad Young
so…you don't like that idea, I take it? lol
Davy Andrews
The call stands is a scourge.
Chad Young
That's fair, and I generally agree, but "this was actually too close for the computer to know if it was a ball or strike" feels like a harsh moment to take away a challenge.
Davy Andrews
That is a very good point. But I think either you trust the computer or you don't, you know?
drplantwrench
even worse challenge
drplantwrench
maybe there should be a margin at which a challenge is so bad you lose both challenges
Davy Andrews
Now THIS I can get behind.
Chad Young
Yeah, I am aligned. Sorry, Sam, that ball was entirely within the zone.
lzfreak
How many pitches will they let Williams go today, assuming he's on?
Chad Young
all of them
Jonathan Smithedited
Challenging in the playoffs has been fascinating to watch. Lots of questionable challenges here. If it's me, I'm waiting for leverage spots, no matter the time of game. 1 on 1 out in the 3rd inning? Not high enough. Maybe in the regular season? I feel like my approach would change drastically in the playoffs.
Davy Andrews
I don't know. The two games I wrote up this weekend featured tons of successful challenges. I tend to think teams are too cautious with them.
Chad Young
At this point, I doubt he goes more than 6, but he'll get up over 100 if needed
Davy Andrews
He reached 100 eight times, season high is 113. I think the answer is "a lot."
Chad Young
The only thing that might keep him from going up over 100 is that the bullpen is fully rested and has an off-day tomorrow.
Davy Andrews
Question for the group: Do you have a go-to baseball-watching snack?
Hazmat Corntail
I tend to go for things with a minimum of mess, so pretzels, maybe popcorn.
Jonathan Smith
I freakin love some popcorn
Chad Young
Chips and salsa. but I can't eat during a Cleveland post-season game.
war2d2
Can’t right now because it’s still only 3pm in CA, but I’m the stereotypical baseball-and-a-beer dad. Other than that I’m generally a tortilla chips guy, if I have them available.
Chad Young
The thing I think is underrated about early challenges is that they can snowball. Turning a PA in your favor now could mean forcing the SP to face another hitter or two. Even if that doesn't turn into runs now, maybe it creates an out or two later that need to be handled but a lesser reliever.
bosoxforlife
I am munching on chips with con queso cheese dip with an adult beverage.
drplantwrench
i think white sox win the series, but sean newcomb vs gavin williams really highlights some key difference
Phil
I used to eat popcorn. Then I had an incident with a crown, of the dental, not kingly variety. Now I eat nothing.
Davy Andrews
That sounds not fun. Sorry, Phil.
Chad Young
I quite literally have a crown in a plastic bag in my pocked because it came off yesterday and I have to go to the dentist and get it repaired. Not fun. I too would stop eating foods that made this happen.
Chad Young
So per the Venable interview, Newcomb got them back on track with their pitching plan. We'll see what happens from here, but Kay+Newcomb with the RHP getting Adell his second time seems to have been their plan, and here we are.
jcathtraverse
don't you still lose your challenge if the call stands? a margin of error is inherent to abs, so retaining the challenge if the pitch falls within it would actually be the best way to make it LESS like call stands.
Matt Martell
In the playoffs, when scoring first is crucial and you never know how many baserunners you're going to get on, I think teams should be more aggressive early than they are, especially if there's a man on base. Any moment could prove to be decisive. Don't wait until later when they might not matter later
Davy Andrews
The announcers are not aware that Nathaniel Lowe does not like to be called Nate.
Davy Andrews
Ok, Ronny knows.
Chad Young
It's sorta the same argument for using your best relievers when you need them instead of waiting for a save – if you know the challenge/reliever has value now, there is no reason to save it for later, when it might not be needed at all.
bosoxforlife
ABS fascinates me. I know I want more early challenges and fear they will disappear with the way teams are restricting players. Do you people think an early challenge in a high leverage situation is a good decision?
Davy Andrews
I do.
Jonathan Smith
I thought what Chad added above was well said. I am personally all for challenging on the leverage of the moment than the timing.
bosoxforlife
I am in agreement with you. There have been a lot of really bizarre challenges this year where players used, and wasted, challenges at meaningless points in the game.
Davy Andrews
Ok, I have to go pour some milk in a baby. I will see if I can check back in on the chat later. Good to talk to you all!
Sean Dolinar
I really goofed by not adding 🍼 into the emoji reacts.
drplantwrench
i want the LFG baseball as an emoji too
war2d2
I’m not a huge Darling fan, but in comparison to the other booths working this round of playoffs this one is a breath of fresh air. Really missing Benetti.
Matt Martell
Derek Junior needs milk!
mmaude
What’s the best window for the white sox to put up 3 runs in this game? Seems to be a very small gap between third time through order from Williams and the pen getting to shut down mode especially in a big game for Cleveland
Yer Main Guy
Right now, I guess
Chad Young
Williams can be homer-prone – just gotta take your chances when you get them because there won't be many.
Chad Young
Vargas has seen 9 pitches and swung at none
Chad Young
and yeah, this is the moment.
drplantwrench
score aside, really feels like white sox have had more momentum throughout the game
war2d2
Not just the game, but in general. Right now the Sox, Rays, Brewers, and Braves all feel like they’re rolling.
Chad Young
Cleveland got two runs, but still doesn't have an RBI hit this series, so they can't really afford to let this lead slip away
Phil
Mune!
Chad Young
I don't know about "throughout the game" – they looked utterly lost against Williams until this inning – but it does feel like this is a HUGE moment
Chad Young
Even that one run really changes the look of this game
bosoxforlife
Murakami amazes me. This old man finds it hard to believe a player can hit .202 and be of such value.
Chad Young
Williams has really lost the thread here and Beni bailed him out
bosoxforlife
Getting back to ABS, What is the consensus here on the number of challenges? I know I would like a couple more or perhaps a couple of one use ones for early innings only.
Matt Martell
Two – this is the right amount.
Anonymous Member #46
MiLB originally started with three on the challenge days. Two is plenty.
Chad Young
that K could be a turning point in the series, but it is definitely a turning point in my day – I need to hop out of here and go be a parent. Go Guards!
Dan Szymborski
No pop on toast references yet?
mmaude
And Peters first pitch swinging
Matt Martell
That cut to Rob Manfred standing alone is among the funniest things I've seen all year
Phil
As a neutral fan, I like the current frequency of challenges, particularly since it feel unusual when an ump is getting a lot of successful ones as in yesterday's MIL-SDP. I wouldn't mind if my own (now eliminated, red-stockinged) team had an extra, since they are often overly reluctant.
bosoxforlife
Manfred looked forlorn, to put it mildly.
Phillip Denny
I know the CHW rotation was below average this year, but if you assume at least one of Taylor/Schultz/Sandlin has starter potential, you can squint your eyes and see an exciting rotation in 2027 and beyond.
drplantwrench
i desperately want my angels to sign skubal, but man if the white sox sign him instead…..
Matt Martell
You stan Kroenke?
Yer Main Guy
So does every team employ some number of guys in a room just watching for what should be reviewed?
Matt Martell
Yes
Phil
This is often public info, e.g., Mike Brenly does it for the Red Sox.
Yer Main Guy
Maybe MLB umpires could just review stuff in this manner and save everyone time and money
Phil
I have always wanted that, like in college football. And for fair/foul it could just be automatic, like tennis.
Phillip Denny
Wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't just "guys in a room watching video" but "guys in a room tinkering with AI agent trained on video in real time"
Phillip Denny
What's actually weird about Gavin Williams is he has better run value on his sweeper v L than v R, and a better run value on his curveball v R than v L. Both the opposite of what you'd expect.
Yer Main Guy
You say this and then he immediately Ks two lefties on curves
Matt Martell
I have no idea how anyone hits Williams' curveball
Sean Dolinar
I feel like we don't see that 12-6 curve like we used to. I miss it.
Yeah Sean, you need to check out this Clemens guy. Good writer.
McPontiff
True, there's not many guys in the league that can drop those these days. Baz on a good day
rfilla
If you're watching the game at a bar or restaurant and the lights AREN'T flickering, take a minute to be grateful. Kinda like when your nose isn't stuffed. Don't take it for granted!
Sean Dolinar
Are the TVs flickering off too?
rfillaedited
It depends how pedantic we are tonight. Technically? Yes. But not as bad as the lights
Phillip Denny
top 3 in the league of curveballs with >38 inches of drop and <6 inches glove, side movement: Baz (600), Freeland (481), Gore (480).
Phil
White Sox radio guys were saying that Ramirez is effective batting second, despite being clearly off and evidently playing hurt, because of "his presence alone." Ignoring whether this is analytically confirmable, is it even definable? What is "presence"? Is the idea that it makes you burn your leverage guys, or throw more pitches by nibbling, even if he strikes out?
lzfreak
My interpretation would be that it's a good idea to bat him second because he's literally Jose Ramirez. A known excellent hitter and future Hall of Famer
Phillip Denny
I think this ties into the larger question of "is lineup protection a thing?" and the answer to that in a universal DH environment is "mostly, no." There was iirc some demonstrable effect of 8 hole batters in the NL pre-2022.
Matt Martell
Yes, and also Ramírez was hurt for most of this season but looked to be coming out of it over the final two weeks. I think that matters, too
Phil
Yes, that I agree with–he looks OK. Just wondering if it's true there's extra vakue to being great even if you don't hit.
millvillemeltdown
i hope all pitchers see hosey step up to the plate and go "eek" a little bit
millvillemeltdown
i mean. as a general rule of thumb i am in favor of more silly noises made. if they put a whistle in the ball that made it scream as it flies. i'd be a fan
Sean Dolinar
Listening to the doppler effect with that ball would be sick.
millvillemeltdown
i spent the better part of one recent afternoon with a shotgun and a deadcat recording the baseball team. would have been more fun if the ball went pweeeeeee
millvillemeltdown
wow sabrowski wanted *zero* to do with grichuk
Phillip Denny
Tommy Pham enters the game and immediately runners advance? Now that's what I call Phamgraphs.
millvillemeltdown
that should go in his stats. he put the fear of pham in the pitcher, causing the wild pitch
Benny The Jet
That's twice in this game an outfielder ran almost to the infield dirt to make a catch
Benny The Jet
Wow
Matt Martell
That was a really nice play by Martinez
Jon Becker
The Pope must’ve just turned the game on
Phillip Denny
So uhhhh when do we declare the White Sox winners of the Crochet trade?
Phil
Oy.
Benny The Jet
Sox might have the juice
Matt Martell
Resurfacing this mailbag question:
Is God fixing the tournament in favor of the White Sox? — Kevin
Phillip Denny
I don't recall the catholic church ever officially blessing a baseball team before. So imo we can't rule it out.
millvillemeltdown
pope leo owes the city of cleveland an apology!!!
Phil
It's 1:10 AM in Rome. You can go to bed now, Leo, the Sox have this.
millvillemeltdown
honestly i liked cleveland alright when i visited, so i'm biased. but like. it'd be so funny if the sox won off the back of the power of the Lord Almighty and a hurt dude bopping his friends on the head with a small stick
millvillemeltdown
i know sss caveats, but i enjoyed watching kwan become a "playoff demon" and getting on base at ridiculous rates in past postseasons. i love a pesky at-bat more than i should…
bosoxforlife
Montgomery shakes his head after swinging at two in the dirt then taking one right in the zone.
millvillemeltdown
me too, buddy… me too…
McPontiff
Burke showing off a pretty tidy hook himself!
millvillemeltdown
chicago and their mirps, man. they converting all their starters to mirps. they converting their position players to mirps. they converting their fo staff to mirps. soon we will all be mirps.
millvillemeltdown
the entropic decay of the "guy who throws ball"
millvillemeltdown
can you tell that i'm procrastinating on thermodynamics homework by watching mlbgameday
Sean Dolinar
I'm glad I don't have to do that anymore.
Jon Becker
Haha yeah same I was totally smart enough for thermodynamics haha anyway how about Hunter Gaddis’ beard?
Sean Dolinar
It's almost as good as Brian Wilson's circa 2010.
bosoxforlife
The last homework I did was 63 years ago.
Sean Dolinar
Everyone just uses AI for their homework these days; it's a problem.
bosoxforlife
There might be a new comment if something actually was happening
Sean Dolinar
I'm prepping polls for the Yankees game. 🤷♂️
Yer Main Guy
Oh is there another game on after this?
Sean Dolinar
I know we had that long extra innings game in CLE a few years back. And they went to the ALCS a few years ago, but I don't remember CLE games being super interesting. They also get stuck with early games.
Anonymous Member #46
From the radio broadcast:
Anonymous Member #46
The White Sox threw 21 bullpen innings when they won in 2005. They have thrown 24 already this year.
NYYfaninLAAland
Can we somehow take bulk starters out of the relief stat set. They have Sean Burke setting “relief” volume records in this game? C’mon, adjust to today’s game realities
Sean Dolinar
This has been a frustration of mine since openers were first being used.
Sean Dolinar
Baseball famously loves to change. I don't think we've ever been able to determine a better way to classify pitcher appearances. Since a start and relief appearances are objectively defined. We are looking at ways to adapt our probables grid.
Sean Dolinar
Can't see that being overturned.
Anonymous Member #46
Sean, with the pitcher IP question, can we get 1/3 innings as an option in the future?
Sean Dolinar
It's possible. Maybe I'll just how outs!
lzfreak
Thought that one was going out
bosoxforlife
I wasn't allowed to say "neither" when asked who I was rooting for.
NYYfaninLAAland
So sad for you
Sean Dolinar
I'll add that if it's NYY-LAD in the WS.
bosoxforlife
I love to watch baseball but there is no way that I can root for either the Rays or that other team.
Matt Martell
Man, that's great for Jo Adell
Sean Dolinar
Who said this game was boring?
sb4321
random question for FanGraphs admins, do the WAR calculations include first base receiving defense and double play defense runs?
I notice it on the leaderboards but can't find any announcements on this
Sean Dolinar
Lemme confirm.
sb4321
Thank you so much for finding out, this is a niche thing I've been wondering for a while.
sb4321
d
drplantwrench
dang i was showering my kid and missed the jo triple ugh
lzfreak
This is a lot of Grant Taylor
MattStats5
Grant Taylor, incredible post season so far. That is all.
McPontiff
I'd say ALL (much maligned) hurlers in Black. Will Venable has really earned my respect this postseason. (with those pinch hit righties vs Sabrowski too).
McPontiff
Thinking about it, he's been managing back-against-the-wall "playoff" style for about 3 weeks straight! Cobbling together 9 innings with the most IP by RPs all year
drplantwrench
WHITE SOX WIN
SadaharuWhoa
White Sox win exactly on time to switch to another game. Quite considerate!
Sean Dolinar
This is one thing I like about streaming vs linear.
bosoxforlife
I am loving me some Taylor doing things that are not supposed to happen in this age of computer driven decision making.
McPontiff
Thanks to "feel" managers like Venable and Weiss!
McPontiff
Too much over-managing in the playoffs
Sean Dolinar
We were 50/50 split on the CHW/CLE game on who would win! Right now we are ~60/40 on the Yankees/Rays on who will win.
And we only have two Yankees fans in the chat.
Sean Dolinar
Re: WAR and 1B Rec question. We haven't incorporated that or the Inf DP this season, because we added those stats in the middle of the season.
sb4321
Alright, good to know. Thank you so much!
I'm assuming that's probably going to be an offseason project?
Sean Dolinar
Yep! Less of a project, more of in-season consistency.
bosoxforlife
I cannot believe Chisholm attempted that throw??????
Matt Martell
The sad thing is, I can
lzfreak
Catchers interference!
bosoxforlife
McMahon's play was about as easy a play as a 3rd baseman could have. To state the obvious, the Yankee defense is pathetic.
Philedited
You knew there had to be a replay challenge for catcher's interference in this series.
Matt Martell
A good ole 3-error inning by the Yankees
bosoxforlife
3 errors in the 1st. Unbelievable!
Jack Martin
Yankees in post-season form
lzfreak
Man this defense is something
Matt Martell
It would be so funny if Simpson went yard here
bosoxforlife
Who is going to want Chisholm in their lineup next year after this performance?
danodea
I would love Jazz on the Pirates. We'll never win anything so we might as well have fun guys
lzfreak
Yeah Chisholm's issues seem like a great coach could help with. And every team thinks its coaches are the best
Nate
Yankees really not beating the allegations here
Matt Martell
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Sean Dolinar
If they get out of this with only 1 run…😑
lzfreak
Feels like a missed opportunity there for Tampa Bay
David
I wonder if the Yankees could recruit the Archbishop of Canterbury as a fan or something…
McPontiff
After what's happening in LA and Cleveland, the Yanks are nervy as hell
Phil
Definitely needed a catwalk ball.
Anon21
Domes suck! Stop playing in domes!
Sean Dolinar
I've always glossed over the ground rules until a few days ago.
sb4321
The Yankees defense which had 8 FRV in the regular season (12th) now has three errors in one inning
Philedited
I do hope the Rays' new stadium has something weird.
SadaharuWhoa
It will be in Florida, so it will have a roof. Just gotta hope it's a funky roof
MattStats5
Schlittler sh*tting the bed a bit. As an Orioles fan, not upset at all.
bosoxforlife
Wells wanted to challenge.
bosoxforlife
Does anyone think Chisholm returns to the Yankees next year?
Phil
He's a better fit for a looser team.
SadaharuWhoa
Like the Marlins
Sean Dolinar
I'd be interested to see our FA crowdsource numbers for him. That 31 HR season is intriguing.
bosoxforlife
I was thinking more on the lines of the Yokohama Bay Stars.
lzfreak
It feels like Schlittler should be at like 50 pitches by now
Matt Martell
Schlittler doesn't have his putaway stuff today.
Matt Martell
I know the Rays are hard to strike out, but they're spoiling his fastballs
bosoxforlife
Sean: how come when I try to reply it says I am replying to myself?
Sean Dolinar
We force only one-level deep threads. Which messages are you replying to? Or trying to reply to?
bosoxforlife
Just a few in general. Recently to Sadaharu Whoa.
Sean Dolinar
Oh the chronological view…your message is the parent for that thread, so that's why. I might rethink how we display that.
Phil
This guy looks more like Peralta of Wisconsin than Peralta of Queens.
bosoxforlife
Should I type first then go to the recipient?
Sean Dolinar
No, just something I have to clean up.
bosoxforlife
Peralta joins Tatis and Kwan as players who had awful first halves and excellent second halves.
bosoxforlife
Thanks.
antihustle
Remember when Tommy Tight Pants threw a billion changeups in a row
Benny The Jet
Man the Yankees line up isn't necessarily bad without Judge, but it sure is less imposing
Sean Dolinar
Our mean for Peralta IP was 4.84.
Sean Dolinar
So maybe we need that fraction of an inning, so someone can be correct.
lzfreak
Sounds like we basically nailed it
Sean Dolinaredited
The Yankees errors poll is quite something. Median 5 errors, but the mean is 25.67, so we need them to step up some.
bosoxforlife
This move by Cash is eerily similar to Game 6 of the 2020 WS when he pulled Snell after he had just given up his first hit. This time it is clear he didn't want Peralta facing Rice. Can't argue with this move.
lzfreak
Baseball games sure can change fast
Matt Martell
Jones should've kept going. Probably could've caught that
drplantwrench
BANG
lzfreak
Simpson is such a Rays guy to have up here
drplantwrench
BANG x2
Sean Dolinar
They aren't gonna call that an error are they?
bosoxforlife
Nothing like two squibbers to get the runs home.
lzfreak
Gotta feel for Schlittler. Not his best, but he pitched better than his line is gonna say
Sean Dolinar
Schlittler goes 4.1 IP; we had 6.27 IP mean and 6 IP median.
bosoxforlife
It is an error. He had a play at 1st if he took it.
Sean Dolinar
It looks like they scored it a single. I don't disagree that it should be an error. I've just seen that play called a hit so often now.
Sean Dolinar
Broadcast is saying they haven't heard a scoring decision. Gameday has a single, but they can always change that.
Phil
Not sure what to root for on that, having voted for 5 errors. I need them to get two more, but if they pick one up now they might overshoot.
lzfreak
I don't think you can assume the play at home and that did look like where he was going
Sean Dolinar
I can't see that being overturned.
Sean Dolinar
He looks convincingly safe.
lzfreak
This Yankees infield is really having a night
Phil
Official scorer ruling pending again. . .
Sean Dolinar
Will they charge an error for that? We need to hit our prediction!
Rollie's Mustache
"The Yankees are absolutely tragic defensively in Game 2" is a great line by Brian Anderson.
Sean Dolinar
Error!
lzfreak
This one has to be an error
bosoxforlife
No doubt about that error.
Benny The Jet
This is getting to meltdown territory
Philedited
They're going to blow past our prediction. Can I revote?
Sean Dolinar
😂 I'll work on that feature next.
lzfreak
It's crazy we're not far removed from Bellinger being like 5 feet away from this being 5-1
SadaharuWhoa
Now it is!
Sean Dolinar
The mound is even against the Yankees.
bosoxforlife
That is a great AB against a tough lefty.
Phil
I know baseball is random, a single game is the smallest of small sample size, etc. etc. But there's no way to watch this game (or listen while looking at Gameday in my case) and not feel like the Rays are a significantly better team.
antihustle
1000%
bosoxforlife
Phil, the answer is really not if the Rays are significantly better but just how much the Yankees are significantly worse.
Jack Dorfman
Fun game so far!
wenz
Did it hit the mound or the cutoff man's leg?
ncphl
Looks like the mound to me
bosoxforlife
I do enjoy watching a soft tosser carve up a linep.
millvillemeltdown
i return from thermo. 55 burgers 55 fries 55 yankee errors
Rollie's Mustache
Google tells me the record for most errors in a single postseason game by one team is 5. So history is within reach tonight.
Phil
I am so rooting for this.
Dan Szymborski
I'm kinda amused that in the ALDS so far, it's almost if the Yankees said "you know all the stuff about our team that people think isn't good because they're angry about analytics? Let's do those things."
millvillemeltdown
i can't believe ANALYTICS turned all our players into potatoes in the field
Patrick Burke
I'm so biased (Yankee fan) but still feel OK even if they lose here. Next two games throwing two lefties, plus no more Trop. Probably lose game five though.
Benny The Jet
We hit 5 errors!
Benny The Jet
Did the official scorer see a chance to get into the history books and reverse course?
Dan Szymborski
On the bright side, they've tripled their hit count from Game 1!
Dan Szymborski
Getting five errors in a game *is* a pretty impressive feat, since game scorers today don't like giving errors unless they look like complex vaudeville sketches.
Michael
As a Yanks fan…I mean every year. This happens every year. I tend to be a realist and not overreact to the calls for Boone/Cashman's heads after every season, but at some point we have to consider this right?
Michaeledited
There's some mindset thing that just isn't there. Impossible to quantify vibes but the Yanks just have had negative vibes in the playoffs for years sans a few moments in '24, various Giancarlo postseason at bats and Schlitter vs. Red Sox starts.
Sean Dolinar
We are going to underestimate the errors! I put that poll up as a joke.
Rollie's Mustache
Back to "only" 4 errors according to mlb dot com. That's no fun.
Phil
Looking forward to the Manager Report Score for Boone, regarding bullpen usage in this game. . . and wondering if he's going to use Bednar down four. . .
McPontiff
yes. yes he is. (might be a decent call though tbh)
Antonio Bananas
With the Rays over performing this season based on a lot of statistics, do we think they figured something out that we dont know how to quantify yet? Or just random?
Michael
Will Boone PH for McMuffin here? If not, the Manager Report should grade him harshly!
Kleanerman
As a Rays fan I'm riding the high and assuming they are omniscient
David
As a White Sox fan, I'm cheering for the Yankees because at this point it seems the much easier path to the WS, and honestly just typing that is a reminder of how insane this season has been.
Rollie's Mustache
Ben Rice. My goodness.
lzfreak
Ben Rice is doing his best
Kleanerman
Maybe I've been corrupted by Colin Poche, but the high-strikeout, low-velo fastball guys like Ian Seymour really do something for me
Phil
We're running out of time for more errors. Ideally we need two on the next play.
McPontiff
Girardi on last year's Baker trade "Orioles shoulda hung up!"
Sean Dolinar
Alright! Let's do this again tomorrow!
McPontiff
I wasn't really heartbroken at the time (as a homer), because he used have his meltdown moments (long balls typically). But I KNEW they would fix him; the stuff was always awesome
Hi Dan, in a league that uses BA, HR, RBI, SB but not runs scored, how much would you push down players who hit first or second in their lineup versus 3/4/5? I’m thinking Witt, Wood, Chourio and similar players rated as first rounders for 2027 but who seem to get a good amount of value from run scored; i know I should move them down a little bit relative to the big power hitters with higher RBI totals, I’m just not sure how much.
Dan Szymborski
Unless you think they're going to be knocked down in the order, don't push them down at all! If you do think, mentally knock off 15-20ish PAs per slot.
Eugenio Velez
What do you think Padres do well?
Dan Szymborski
The team is aggressive, and do well at identifying what the problem is, even if they're not always great a solving them. They're excellent at finding raw reliever types and making them effective. Those are the two biggest
O'Votto
Phil Castellini said this morning, "we need to let the baseball folks run the baseball team" in so many words. I'll believe it when i see it.
jonmberra
Do you think any of the teams with a significant playoff drought will make it next year?
Dan Szymborski
The Pirates *could*. And I think if the Nats had a couple big things go their way in FA, I think they could ahve enough pitching to be at least interesting
Matthew Spence
What happened with the Cubs? Offense went so cold.
Dan Szymborski
Sometimes team just suck in two games
Dan Szymborski
The Dodgers had 14 independent losing streaks this year (two games or more). And all of them were to teams worse than them, naturally
Dan Szymborski
It just comes down to who executed that day, and it's not predictive or meaningful in any sense. Just embrace the chaos
withay
Dan, is it too late to make ZiPS project the Padres to be favored over the Brewers? I worry Pat Murphy is running out of motivational material.
Dan Szymborski
Model changes would not be a great idea mid playoffs!
Dan Szymborski
But a good leader can find something to hate
betob
What’s up with the reluctance to label anything as an error. Thinking specifically of the Harper and Alvarez misplays.
Dan Szymborski
To be an error, either a grounder has to go through your legs, a lazy throw has to be horribly off, or you have to do something that looks like a vaudeville sketch
Jos
Hey Dan. What do you make of the starting rotations for the Brewers-Padres series? Seems like Miz being able to start twice is a huge advantage for MIL, while the Padres lack of rotation depth is a negative as these series get longer and longer.
Dan Szymborski
It's very helpful, and you'll see it in the projections!
Lagom
What percentile would CWS beating LAD in the World Series be in terms of all time sports upsets?
Dan Szymborski
Basically, no baseball playoff series could possibly even be anywhere high on a list
toodamntall
What are your thoughts on how Boston handled its SP in the two games?
Dan Szymborski
I didn't always like who they CHOSE for relief, but I don't have any problems with the decisions themselves. I know Gray is unhappy, but his velocity was dropping quickly and his command was clearly off
Dan Szymborski
And it's kinda hard to get too upset about individual pitching decisions when your team scored two runs in two games anyway
robertobeers
A man a Dan a chat a cat eating Arbys, ybragnitaetacatahcanadanama
JustinPBG
Are the Red Sox that bad or are the Yankees playing to their talent level finally? I know Boston can't hit but they supposedly have a good bullpen
Dan Szymborski
I mean, the Yankees are a really good team.
Grandpaboy
If you ran the Cubs, what are the 2-3 moves you’d make to close the gap with Milwaukee? I’m through with the Jed/Carter regime; what would you and ZiPS do?
Dan Szymborski
Really think you need to go all-in on top pitching as much as you can . It's fine to have value guys, but the Cubs had too many value guys.
kfiman
Do you think the Yankees roster construction for the short series is the way teams should go in the future, 16 p9 players and 10 pitchers?
Dan Szymborski
I wholeheartedly agree with Baumann's piece. As long as you have an arm who can be the mopup dude if things get out of control, you don't need to carry a billion pitchers for three games.
kfiman
Do you think the way the Yankees constructed their roster is how teams should do it for a short series? 16 position players and only 10 pitchers?
jroth
I assume Brandon Lowe's All-Star–worthy season has bumped his projections (which were pretty bad), but by how much? Is there any justification for giving him even a medium-sized contract?
Dan Szymborski
Quite a bit – he's a 3.something WAR guy for next year in ZiPS. Nothing crazy, but he should get a pretty good deal
eandy
How does ZiPS react to Ty France's season? He achieved something like his 99th percentile outcome from the preseason projection. How many other cases has there been with such a high achievement compared to expectations?
Dan Szymborski
97th in ZiPS! And yeahyou expect like 60 guys to do that in a year, though some will be harder to tell because they 97th percentile still sucks or they're in the minors
Dan Szymborski
I'm guessing he'll be up to a 105-110 wRC+ in the projections?
Baseball Learner
Should Cole or Rodon start game 1? Does Zips think it matter
Dan Szymborski
Order tends not to really matter so much
drplantwrench
follow up on the angels team: what do you think is the most realistic pathway Kroenke will take? personally i think he'll push hard for skubal
Dan Szymborski
Honestly? I don't have the slightest idea what the Angels end up doing
kwisla
Obviously baseball player evaluation is hard but watching the Yankees series it came to mind that none of Warren, Rice, Schlittler, or Jones we're really ranked in Top 100 lists (Jones was in and out a few times). What was missed with these players that have become big contributors that wasn't seen by people who scout these players?
Dan Szymborski
Honestly, I'm not sure there's something to *do*, though it's always important to keep your mind open to changing your mind on a player. I do think sometimes the higher floor guys without some real standout tool tend to be underrated
Baseball Learner
Does Zips this Ben Rice will end his career as the best Rice ever? Or is Jim Rice's crown safe?
Dan Szymborski
I think he likely had too late a start to end up at Jim Rice territory. I'll also say that Jim Rice vs. Sam Rice isn't obvious
jonmberra
What trade do you think Red Sox will make with either the Cardinals/Nationals this offseason?
Dan Szymborski
I could totally see Duran end up with the Cardinals
Baby Yoda
Abstract question about "reverse replacement level": what would production look like if you took a league-average-ish starter (say Kyle Leahy or Alec Burleson) and sent them down to play a full season at each MiLB level (AAA down to FCL)? Besides the hitters probably just getting pitched around, would they put up video game stats or "just" peak SEC-type lines?
Dan Szymborski
Think about 20 points of wRC+ higher than in the majors or so
Bob Loblaw
I need the White Sox to keep winning just to see Mune's postgame interviews.
war2d2
Dan! I’m sad! The Cubs looked like absolute pop on toast for the last month and then went out with a whimper! HELP MAKE THE SAD GO AWAY
Dan Szymborski
You literally have a dice roll in your handle!
ImKeithHernandez
Why was Dustin Harris hitting second last night? Also, who is Dustin Harris?
Dan Szymborski
I will note here that ZiPS has Harris with the with the 3rd best OBP against righties on the Padres roster, at .330 (.350 for Tatis, .332 for France)
war2d2
that was supposed to say “poop on toast,” fyi
Dan Szymborski
Pop on toast sounds pretty bad too. I like coke and I like toast, but a piece of toast that has been soaked in Coke sounds pretty gross. Also, you're saying pop instead of soda, which is also gross
Baby Yoda
Related FA question: if a guy is an FA when the CBA expires, could a team sign them to a "minor league" contract with a gazillion-dollar signing bonus and let them play at AAA until the lockout ends?
Dan Szymborski
By my understanding, a free agent who is a free agent under the terms of the prior CBA is still considered part of the "MLB Player" bargaining unit
Dan Szymborski
but I think TECHNICALLY if he's signed to the deal BEFORE the lockout, then he's not part of the bargaining unit? But I don't think anyone's done that for obvious awkward reasons
Dan Szymborski
But if, say, Skubal signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers with a $300 million signing bonus, I imagine there would be huge controversy that neither side wants to deal with. Nor do I think a player would do quite that situation if they're a big name
sliderinthedirt
How much better would the Ray’s WS odds be if they hadn’t randomly traded Lowe and Montgomery for garbage?
Dan Szymborski
Honestly, probably marginal
Dylan
What's your offseason plan to get the Os in the thick of the division race if you're in charge?
Dan Szymborski
SPEND ON PITCHING
war2d2
Ha, I never noticed that about my handle. My name is Warren and the prequels came out when I was first dating my ex. Her brother was 12 and he started calling me War2D2 because it sounded like R2-D2 and he was, as I said, 12.
Dan Szymborski
Honestly, I thought War was for baseball and 2D2 was a joke about rolling two two-sided dice
jabrwcky
What is the current "market inefficiency" that savvy teams take advantage of that we might not always think about?
Dan Szymborski
I think there's still a definable difference between teams at identifying OKish players with upside. The Brewers rule this in a way that even the Rays don't
HappyFunBall
re: Subs pitching. Value guys are a lovely floor. It's great to have a roster full of guys who aren't holes. But at some point you have to have someone step up and perform as a star. It's a gamble, for sure, and an expensive one. But the best way to win that gamble is to sign guys who are already stars.
Fangraphs Man
How does ZiPS feel about the 2027 White Sox as currently constructed? I assume it has a relatively high opinion of Vargas, but I doubt they're getting 8 WAR out of Meidroth and Peters again, and I feel like their rotation is very weak. Are they still tracking like a bottom~10 team next year?
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS think they're OKish, like 78 to 83 wins or so, but that's good enough to be interesting in the AL Central
Dan Szymborski
The White Sox have done a really good job at throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. That's one of the advantages bad teams have that good teams just aren't going to match. No contending team can really afford to sign a guy from Banana Ball and see if he works out in the majors
Kwanbelievable
What does ideal roster construction for the Division Series look like? 14 hitters, 12 pitchers? Same for the CS and WS?
Dan Szymborski
Probalby somewhere around that. I wish long relievers were still a thing. I think every team should maintain a roster that allows them to complete any non-extra inning game with two pitchers.
war2d2
I’m from Chicago, they always say “pop” there but for whatever reason my family said “soda” or “coke” even though we were a Pepsi family. Doubly weird because my family was in Chicago for generations, and my dad was from LA.
Dan Szymborski
Pepsi eww. My girlfriend had to ban me from shaking my fist at Pepsi trucks when we were in public
Dan Szymborski
One of my favorite things to do is ask for a Coke at a restaurant, and when the waiter/waitress asks "is Pepsi OK?" just say "No" and let the awkward silence persist for a few seconds.
Dan Szymborski
(I don't feel guilty doing this because I'm actually always super nice to staff every other interaction and my standard tip is 25%)
kingkash7788
Have you watched the show "Pantheon" on Netflix. It's really good
Dan Szymborski
I have not. Truth is, my scripted television/movie watching is far smaller than the average American
Dan Szymborski
For one, baseball takes up most of the screens seven months a year, and I will generally play a game or watch a game stream before watching most TV shows.
Baseball Learner
My question about Cole and Rodon was based on the presumption Schlittler starts came 2 and Fried game 3, and one of Cole or Rodon might not start at all
Dan Szymborski
I *think* ZiPS will generally prefer Rodon slightly then, but I'm not really positive until I run it
cyanocitta
With the Blue Jays losing several notable names to free agency (e.g., Springer, Bieber), and seeing some returnees from long-term injury (e.g., Santander, Ponce, Barger), what's the ZiPS prognosis for 2027? I'm assuming that they sign a SP, as well as one or two position players with SLG upside, but it would be interesting to see the positions at which your projections have the biggest potential marginal gains.
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS does think they need some addition for the holes; right now they'd project as .500y
Gregg
Thoughts on Marlins SP as RP during bullpen days?
Dan Szymborski
I don't have a problem with it. If soemone is throwing that day, I have zero issue with them making short appearances. Though you kinda want the players to be OK with it, even if they don't technically have a say in the matter
war2d2
My handle is also kind of a joke because irl I’m 6’5” and R2-D2…is not.
J. Peterman
Denzel Clarke 2027 over/under .650 OPS? And if under, what does that mean for his playing time?
Dan Szymborski
Amusingly, ZiPS has him right at .651 OPS. So not taking an over under yet!
Kwanbelievable
RE: Marlins SP throwing during bullpen days, is there any scientific evidence behind the benefit of bullpen days? I've often wondered if the current recovery cycle of a SP is contributing to arm blowouts, but I have no idea how one would go about trying to quantify that when there's basically no counterfactual data to compare with
Dan Szymborski
There's no real data to work with, as far as I know
drplantwrench
i was never been much of a soda person, but ive recently fallen into a Dr Pepper craze
Dan Szymborski
Dr. Pepper is interesting since it's hard to figure out what it actually is. Though Dr. Pepper knockoffs have done a good job so someone's figured it out
Dan Szymborski
The best thing about Dr. PEpper is the name gives generic Dr. Pepper room to be creative
I *am* told, by the way, that we'll be able to drop images directly into here at some point
J. Peterman
To hijack a Mitch Hedberg joke, the doctorate is unnecessary because I would have drank that from a Mr. Pepper.
Dan Szymborski
At least most other sodas (not Coke) you can kinda identify what it's supposed to be. Like Sprite is lemon and lime (though the recipe is more than that, also Hedberg). And Mountain Dew is vaguely citrus + phlegm
Dan Szymborski
Generic Dr. Peppers do a way better job than generic Cokes. I can clock generic Coke easily, and I can tell how close a Coke is to the date on the bottom of the can. You can tell just by smelling – Coke uses a lot of aromatic oils. A Coke that is 10 months away from date (usually the freshest coke you can get) will smell of citrus oil, vanilla, and cinnamon, with other vague warm spice notes
war2d2
Yeah, I personally only drink Coke (to the extent I ever drink soda). But my family was crazy for Pepsi, my grandma would drink it with breakfast.
Kwanbelievable
What is Dan having for lunch today, and how much of it is going to be paid as tax to the cats?
Dan Szymborski
I had some Sam's Club General Tso's for lunch. The cats did not get any. None of my current cats are into human food, though Luna will try and stick her paw in your drink out of curiosity.
Dan Szymborski
Luckily, since I mostly drink out of deli containers, I keep a lid on my desk to put on my drink if she's visiting me in my office
Dan Szymborski
I don't like doing dishes, most of my dishes stay in the cabinet. While I use normal utensils, I like drinking out of deli containers and using paper plates.
Dan Szymborski
(I do have a dishwasher)
Dan Szymborski
I tend to accumulate desk forks though
Dan Szymborski
I'll usually keep using the same fork. I'm kinda gross if other people aren't around
Gregg
Why do you think models (Stuff+, Pitchingbot) think Cavalli is just average but his underlying metrics show him to be elite?
Dan Szymborski
I think it's one of those things where we have to see more, even though this is a copout answer
maximus74
Mr Pibb > Dr Pepper
snakestl
Hot topic for sure right now…what should the Cardinals do at 3B for 2027?
Dan Szymborski
Feels like something that would be a trade
fishnchips
Congrats! You’re the new Mariners manager. What’s your first question or move?
Dan Szymborski
"How did I get this job without interviewing for it or expressing interest? Is this even legal?"
Dan Szymborski
I'm kinda curious how long they go with Kerr
Dan Szymborski
though that seems like a lame interesting thing
Kwanbelievable
What are you looking forward to most during the Braves/Phillies game this evening?
Dan Szymborski
Oh, I didn't publish the q
Dan Szymborski
Also curious if the Braves can ensure no righties against Schwarber/Harper
drplantwrench
also theres a bunch of james acaster jokes on dr. pepper. "it tastes like a sexy battery", "can says mixed fruit flavor, im not stupid, i know what fruit tastes like. ive never sent a fruit salad for being too dr. peppery"
Syndergaardengnomes
Mr. Pibb? Dude doesn't even have his degree…
Kwanbelievable
If you think Mountain Dew tastes like phlegm, I would hate to hear your opinion of most energy drinks
Which members of the upcoming 2026 free agency class are flying a bit more under the radar than you would expect, given their underlying data and your projections? Conversely, who seems like an unnecessary overpay risk?
Dan Szymborski
Suzuki maybe? Just feels like he's not talked about a lot relative to his quality
J. Peterman
Which MLB player is the Dr Pepper-est of the league? The one you can just can't figure out what he is. For me it might be Francisco Alvarez.
Dan Szymborski
Arraez. He does something weird for 2026 players. And you're just not sure if he IS good or not, since his defensive numbers have been all over the place
drplantwrench
this begs the question, is Dr. Pepper the official soda of comedians? whats the official soda of baseball writers?
Dan Szymborski
Diet Coke maybe? A lot of guys don't leave the press box at all, and pound Diet Cokes from the machine that's usually there and available
Dan Szymborski
Now me, I tend to venture out and shotgun a few beers, sometimes with random fans that recognize my name from my badge
Dan Szymborski
Oh, the only cat that was really into human food was Galileo. I swear he could smell if you were thinking about food. He's the one I'd get Arby's for after every vet visit and I'd just hand him the sandwich while in the drive-thru window
war2d2
One of my strongest sense-memories is of being about 8yo on a family vacation and having Dr. Pepper and saltwater taffy both for the first time. I still like the good doctor, but taffy is unwelcome in my home.
Dan Szymborski
I don't like super chewy things. For some reason I've always had kind of a weak jaw muscle and if I eat a ton of chewy thing, my jaw will be sore for a day or two
maximus74
Do you think the Cardinals make a play for some actual pitching, or be too afraid/cautious after the new CBA?
Dan Szymborski
I think they'll be conservative
TheBSharps
I just took a peek at the FA list. My goodness that's some soda on toast.
drplantwrench
with the FA class being somewhat stinky, do you expect more trades to happen this winter than usual?
Dan Szymborski
Yup
Dan Szymborski
I've been asked to bring back the Lightning Round, so I'll do that today. I'll answer what's left in thq queue, but OTHERWISE, I will answer anything, even if I don't know the answer. Except politics and excessively ipersonal things
NATS Fan
How will Zips grade Foster Griffith this offseason? Like the NATS stud or the Giardian not so great?
Dan Szymborski
He'll be a useful mid-rotating inning eater probably
Dan Szymborski
Nats would benefit re-signing
limron
Will we have any awards surprises this year? Based on all the inside information twitter thinks you have, you should be counting final ballots by now?
Dan Szymborski
I count the ballots? Jack O'Connell I believe has the access to the formsite submissions
Dan Szymborski
I wonder if someething happened to Jack suddenly, if theres' anyone with access to the awards. Would we have to revote?
HappyFunBall
re:Cavalli when I see a pitcher who seems to be outperforming his models I generally assume it's something to do with sequencing or deception. Stuff that the bots don't measure so well. You know, "pitching" v "throwing"
Dan Szymborski
Usually more time irons things out nicely!
Dan Szymborski
Meh-plus
vinzk
What does ZIPs think of Lawrence Butler for 2027v
Dan Szymborski
OK, seems to be working now?
Dan Szymborski
I think it's working now?
Dan Szymborski
averageish
HappyFunBall
Game One was Austin Riley's redemption of a bad season, Two was Bohm's. By that measure, which sob story is most likely going to swing Game Three? If this isn't the setting for an Aaron Nola CGSO I don't know what is…
Dan Szymborski
oops sorry was getting 500 errors
fincampbell05
Red Sox probably already project for around 90 wins in 2027 even with departing FA, right? Very confused about all of this dooming from fans.
Dan Szymborski
probably a few wins under
cyanocitta
I've been following Suzuki since he was with Hiroshima, and thought his underlying numbers would translate well to MLB. In other words, not particularly Tsutsugo-esque. However, I do worry about the aging curve for a 32yo corner outfielder who could end up getting nine figures.
Dan Szymborski
yeah, but that's the case for most 32 yo cof
Kwanbelievable
who is your favorite power ranger?
Dan Szymborski
second Black Ranger because it's Johnny Yong Bosch who voices Joshua in the Trails series
ImKeithHernandez
Should Mets release Semien?
Dan Szymborski
I would
crew87
Does your girlfriend know what you do for a living? Always curious how fangraphs-y writers explain what they do.
Dan Szymborski
Oh, she understands. She's tagged along to a few FG things. But she couldn't tell you much about baseball or what I do beyong writing plus numbers.
war2d2
I’m really hoping “soda on toast” becomes a thing in SzimChats
bndj88
Towson High dedicated Randy Dase Field last week. A true legend! He was one of my LPP teachers too, and let's just say he viewed himself primarily as Coach Dase lol. Still, a giant and a worthy tribute.
Dan Szymborski
I had Mr. Dase for 10th-grade social studies
Dan Szymborski
I sent him an email congratulating him when he retired
crew87
have you been following pro wrestling at all lately?
Dan Szymborski
I'm always behind in the regular season
crew87
What can I do with sardines? They're supposed to be one of the healthiest fish for you, but struggling to come up with stuff besides "eat them plain."
Dan Szymborski
buttered toast
Seuss2004
I used to drink Mountain Dew: Code Red when it came out (I was in college), and people would ask what it tasted like. My standard answer was, 'red.' Nobody ever disagreed.
Dan Szymborski
It's abotu accurate
Willie Stargell
Thanks for a great year Dan! Any non-baseball plans or goals for the offseason you would like to share
Dan Szymborski
I need to clean out the storage room under the stairs
Dan Szymborski
and I'm thinking of getting a smaller server case for one of my servers, like a jonsbo n4
crew87
What are your instructions for the fangraphs staff playoff predictions? Is it "try to come up with a feasible scenario" or "your life depends on the outcome, who do you think wins each round?" Or is it left up to the individual
Dan Szymborski
"make your predictions"
richwp01
Dan, now that the White Sox blew up your Astros prediction, you want to revisit the Cleveland ALDS? The White Sox able to squeeze their pitching though with the extra off day?
Dan Szymborski
well yeah, since I had an impossible task!
richwp01
Dr Pepper has a strong Chicago connection (with the Official Drink fo the Bears and Soldier Field). Also, lots of neighborhood Pizza Places in Chicago do RC Cola.
maximus74
after the boston beatdown, seems like the yankees are gonna sleep walk into the WS. I just don't trust TB in the playoffs
war2d2
I certainly hope Suzuki flies under the radar, the Cubs need to prioritize resigning him in my opinion. I worry he gets priced out of their cheapo owner’s range and they wind up bringing back the smoldering husk of Ian Happ and calling it good.
Kwanbelievable
It's working now!
Kwanbelievable
Parker Messick just confirmed as Guardians G1 starter over Williams, thoughts?
Dan Szymborski
Don't think it's terrible
limron
Do you think there's still much edge in projection systems for fantasy, or just a disadvantage if you aren't using them? I've done a bit of work on team wins projection trying a different systematic approach than anything up at FG, got down to MAE 7.51 wins, and figured I'd just be better off using a composite of the major public systems in the end.
Dan Szymborski
I think everyone uses them, but I think HOW you use them will seaprate you
crew87
do you have any other blog subscriptions? like, what else do you read besides fangraphs?
Dan Szymborski
Well, first you have the papers and large sites (I subscribe to NYT and WaPo)
Dan Szymborski
I subscribe to BP
Dan Szymborski
substackwise, I subscribe to Sheehan, Carroll, Greenberg for baseball. For non-baseball, I sub to Yglesias, Silver, Fifth Column, and Central Air
Baseball Learner
When we say mid rotation innings water, how much war is that? Ordinally, is that a top 50 pitcher in baseball? Top 100?
Dan Szymborski
2ish
war2d2
Boil spaghetti, drain it but leave it kind of wet, dump a ton of olive oil, shaved parmesan, lots of lemon, and a tin of sardines and toss it violently about. It’s great.
Alby
Which Sibelius symphony should I start with?
Dan Szymborski
1, then 2, then 5
Dan Szymborski
Though START with the various symphonic poems with Sibelius
Dan Szymborski
And on that note, I won't test my luck and try to end this chat without anything crashing
I'm very excited for today. These 4-game blocks are great as a way to hype up the start of the playoffs
Dan Szymborski
Gotta get used to the whole new chat interface; I'm so used to Jotcast
Connor Mitchell
Joe Musgrove???????????
Dan Szymborski
I imagine they'll be careful with the situations they bring him in.
Hazmat Corntail
I was already scheduled to conduct a HIPAA training for work today starting at 2 (of course), so I’ll be watching with it on mute for most of it
Michael Rosen
when are the steamer 2027 projections out…
Dan Szymborski
Dunno, gotta ask Jared on that one. Meg, if you're still lurking around, are you aware?
robertobeers
I could go for a Schmitter right now…
Seuss2004
Provided he feels okay and is not getting shelled, Luzardo needs to be left in the game as much as possible, right? The Discussion makes it sound like he'll be limited to a couple innings and I'm honestly terrified of what early moves Donnie Baseball might make.
Dan Szymborski
I'd certainly want to. He seems to really want to go back to normal quickly, and it feels like the Phillies are trying to push back on that
Dan Szymborski
And I'm sorry, but he's not as threatening as Max Scherzer so it's not as scary to tell him no
Rich Hill's Fastball
Stanton?
Ben Clemens
I get why the Yankees are giving him a shot. Obviously incredibly high vol here, but I can see why. Without Judge, this is not a fun lineup against a bunch of lefty pitchers.
Dan Szymborski
Scherzer's blue eye sees the day you die.
eccentricatlfan
Not a playoff-team note, but while the “Patrick Corbin as a reliever” stint didn’t last long due to injury, it’ll be interesting if he’s willing to make a full-time switch in 2027. He was still solid against lefties in 2026 with a 2.90 xFIP against them, and while righties battered him, both his changeup and slider were better than average at catching righty bats out in front of the plate, so there’s at least some path to improving against them.
Michael Baumann
They say baseball is the American pastime, but ball games have been played in the Americas for more than 3,500 years. Today, like the mythical Maya heroes Hunahpu and Xbalanque, we stand on the precipice of Xibalba, the Underworld, the Place of Fright, and present ourselves for divine judgment.
The victors will receive immortality. The defeated will envy the dead.
Hi, I’m Matt Vasgersian for NBC Sports, alongside C.J. Nitkowski, John Kruk and Joey Votto, and it is our pleasure to welcome you to the concrete Xibalba of unincorporated Cobb County, Georgia, for the National League Wild Card Series.
Dan Szymborski
Other pitchers have survived this way. It wouldn't be the craziest thing ever if Corbin hung on
drplantwrench
ive heard from non baseball fans talk about the postseason starting (after months of rolling their eyes at me for talking baseball). seems like that baseball playoffs enjoy some of the biggest boosts to viewership. any unbiased theories why?
Ben Clemens
I have some theories about why the other sports don't get the same kind of boost, though not a strong one about baseball specifically.
Basketball doesn't get a boost because be honest, have you ever watched a first round NBA playoff game? There are too many teams in the playoffs, the games don't get good for a month
Football doesn't get a boost because interest is already very high. There are always playoff implications in the last game of the year and it flows smoothly into the playoffs with the same interest. Whereas in baseball, many teams are just kinda getting ready for October for the last two weeks to one month tahnks to how long the season is
TKDC
The 2pm start time is so stupid. The number of people trying to watch 11 hours of baseball on a Tuesday has to be in the triple digits, a few thousand max.
Ben Clemens
It's true, I wouldn't mind two sets of two instead of four sets of one. But I do love having all four games on the same day.
beanbong
really not a fan of the midday midweek playoff games, forcing me to discretely watch in a minimized window at the office
I've got Tampa Bay over Milwaukee. A shocking number of my colleagues (6) agree with you though
Benny The Jet
I firmly disagree, I take one week off a year and it is this week- a full day of postseason baseball, there is just nothing like it!
Dan Szymborski
Afternoon Bau-Bau chick chicka-chicka!
Smiling Politely
Dan! Happy Baseballing to you! I saw your "mea culpa" brewers/zips post has re-emerged under "Trending." I'm curious how you feel about it now. Is it just a short term blip in history where MIL is just going to be that team that exceeds (in the way the Mets will chronically underperform because they are the Mets)? Or is there more work to be done on assessing playing time per org? (no criticism here; i dunno how the brewers keep winning so many games either)
Dan Szymborski
Honestly…I'm not sure. Anything that can't last forever won't. If I knew the answer, I'd have figured out the Brewers, and I haven't figured out the Brewers!
Ben Clemens
"The Philadelphia Phillies have to attack right away" is the kind of meaningless, non-falsifiable thing I'd expect to open a baseball series
lzfreak
Dan did you run Yankees odds with and without Judge in this series? How much does his absence move the needle on their win probability?
Dan Szymborski
I haven't actually! Mainly because I had to update everything Sunday night *and* write a piece, so I didn't do any extra stuff. The current ZiPS probs are him NOT being in the games
Ben Clemens
I hope that if the Phillies don't score in teh first but win the game, we'll get a lengthy mea culpa
Seuss2004
Was first pitch supposed to be 2, or was that just the TV start time? Or has time been altered irrevocably due to an 81-win team making the playoffs?
Ben Clemens
TV start time, but they certainly didn't make it obvious if you didn't look closely
Michael Baumann
I'm marveling at the thinness of the needle the Phillies had to thread to 1) make the playoffs while 2) fielding a lineup with Derek Hill hitting fifth in Game 1
Dan Szymborski
The whole Phillies bench except Sosa is guys I wouldn't be quite sure were still in baseball if you demanded an answer at gunpoint
Michael Baumann
I think the most damning thing about this roster is they've carried two backup catchers who can't hit for most of the year and their triple-A depth is such that yeah I don't know if it's hurt them that much
Rich Hill's Fastball
The broadcast crew for this first game should be an absolute joy
Rich Hill's Fastball
Ben, what's for lunch?
Ben Clemens
Since it's four straight games, I have leftovers from last night's takeout. October is a time for simple food that I don't have to cook, basically 🙂
drplantwrench
we cant prove time *hasnt* been altered due to the astros though either
TKDC
On the tv time, I saw one Instagram post with 2:15 on it, but even espn had 2:00 which they usually only pull that trick for their own games.
beanbong
if Truist is in a concrete exurb (barely a mile and a half from the Atlanta city limits) then what is Citizens Bank and its expansive fields of surrounding parking lot amidst an industrial park
Dan Szymborski
Quick start
Ben Clemens
Trea Turner was very aggressive early. Three straight swings for a strikeout. I assume that will earn him plenty of praise from the announcers.
Ben Clemens
Oh man, Votto's into it too! Love it
Ben Clemens
That's about the most gentle way you can push back on your colleague. "Well, it's Philly's job to be aggressive by taking bad pitches". It's true!
Dan Szymborski
I wonder if the Phillies will ever get the notion that maybe you don't want Turner getting the most or second-most PAs in every game.
lzfreak
Did we ever figure out what's wrong with Trea Turner? Feels like his career was cruising until this year where his numbers are down across the board. Aging? Injury? Some combination plus variance?
Dan Szymborski
I thought the season a couple years ago was a blip. but this has been a BLUMP
sammysamsam
Rowdy Tellez is on a playoff roster in 2026
Dan Szymborski
Feels weird to see Luke Williams on a playoff roster, though at least he's faster
Dan Szymborski
I wish Rowdy Tellez were better, but he LOOKS like a guy who can hit, but isn't actually one
cameronkear
Why doesn’t MLB re-seed? I imagine this will come up in CBA negotiations
bosoxforlife
I can't think of any player who comes close to Schwarber's profile. He is Rob Deer but actually has value.
Ben Clemens
This is going to sound weird because the game has changed so much, but I looked for players with similar K%+'s, so era-adjusted strikeout rates, and I have some comps for you. Jack Clark. Bob Allison. Troy Glaus. Harmon Killebrew. Ralph Kiner.But when you combine how many strikeouts the league just has overall now and the fact that he's a walks-whiffs-homers guy, the raw numbers get crazy.
Dan Szymborski
I think there's too much Other Stuff to worry about that
Ben Clemens
Yeah I'm with Dan. Like, they're going to be arguing about billions of dollars, and re-seeding is not really a monetary edge for anyone. Who will push for it?
Ben Clemens
If you think of the CBA negotiations as a way to make baseball better, you'll get misled. Because while in many cases that does happen, it's an adversarial bargaining for money between two parties.
Michael Baumann
What Ben said a million times
Dan Szymborski
Yeah, that's the problem. It's something that's just better, but it doesn't matter for either of the parties
beanbong
what's the minimum amount of pitchers a team could carry for a 3-game series? Will we ever see the Guardians carry 3 good starters, half a bullpen, and just run an entire lineup of platoons?
Ben Clemens
I think it's probably still like 11. Because having a full bullpen is pretty important. I think you'll see like 2 starters and even more bullpen before 3 starters and not much bullpen.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Chat function idea, if it's possible: a "delay chat by x seconds" button. For anyone whose stream is behind.
beanbong
Harper has looked absolutely hopeless the last couple games facing Sale, curious to see if he's figured anything out
Klubot3000
I know someone said this already, but this is really a good crew for this TV broadcast
Ben Clemens
yeah. Great one. Loving Votto so far.
drplantwrench
which series do you think is going to be the least fun to watch?
Dan Szymborski
White Sox Astros?
Ben Clemens
Hot take: Yankees Red Sox
Ben Clemens
Not because it's not inherently interesting, because of the 'narrative'
Michael Baumann
I don't think we're close to solving pitcher usage and roster construction for a best-of-three series. Everyone's too afraid to buck roster norms because if you lose you look like an idiot
Ben Clemens
I'm kinda pumped for the White Sox honestly. I want to see 20k, 5hr games and whatnot
cameronkear
I think they should just seed playoff teams by record
Seuss2004
CBP is just over three miles from City Hall and straight down Broad. Trust is 10 miles from Downtown Atlanta and easily accessible by multiple 8-lane highways.
Michael Baumann
Yeah you can get from Temple's campus in North Philly to CBP in like 15 minutes on the subway, whereas Truist is…OK, for people in Marietta and Cumberland, there's this thing called a "subway"…
fincampbell05
Ben, the Yankees are only carrying 10 pitchers! I also would have said 11-12 until I saw that.
Ben Clemens
Wow nice
Nathaniel
You know it's the playoffs because the homeplate ump is wearing a little camera on his head! LETS GOOOOOO!!!
Ben Clemens
That's a new low.
Eltneg
I've never said anything bad about Alec Bohm in my life
Sean Dolinar
We could probably add a custom delay to chat. Might have that ready for later today.
bosoxforlife
I cannot see having more than nine pitchers on a roster for a three game series. No team is going to use their last three or four bull pen arms in a game and the back end starters don't usually make good middle men.
Ben Clemens
The counter to this would be that the 17th position player is probably not adding much either. But teams seem to carry more long relievers than they need, I think I agree.
Eltneg
A 3-game wild card series after a 162-game regular season is ridiculous and unfair until it's my team making it into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth and embarrassing a division winner
Dan Szymborski
I used to get angrier. I've moved beyond thinking of the playoffs as tryign to determine the best team. Now I focus on the chaos and drama and sadness and triumph
Benny The Jet
Re-seeding kills the ability to fill out brackets before the playoffs too- obviously not a huge baseball thing, but I remember MLB pushing it for a while (if they aren't still)
Michael Baumannedited
The NHL made a big deal about filling out brackets when they went to division-based playoffs a few years ago and no one cares about the brackets and the NHL playoff format suuuuuuucks.
That said, I'm OK with no reseeding in baseball. We just lucked into a really lopsided bracket this year because there are 2 1/3 good teams in the entire AL. The most tiresome thing about the MLB playoffs is every year everyone wants to change the whole system to fix idiosyncratic one-year problems.
Doug Lampert
That or reseed after the wildcard. Rays playing the winner of Red Sox-Yankees as their "reward" for number one seed is insane.
drplantwrench
i was thinking this series might be the least fun to watch (and i mean this as a compliment)
sammysamsam
The playoff structure will be way better after expansion and realignment as long as they move back to a two-division-per-league system. Really bugs me when the "divisional" round is totally separate from winning the division title
Dan Szymborski
They won't. We'll have eight four-team divisions.
Benny The Jet
Do the Braves almost have to win today? The pitching gets thin behind Sale, while Philly has Sanchez and Wheeler waiting the next 2 days…
Michael Baumann
This is germane to my favorite playoff fun fact, which I just posted on Bluesky: The Phillies are 15-7 all-time in playoff series after winning Game 1 but 0-9 after losing Game 1. So really, both teams have to win today. In fact, whoever wins let's call the rest of the series off and go to the bar
drplantwrench
the fact that anything can happen in a baseball game is what makes it chaotic and fun. i appreciate recapturing that in the playoffs as well, let hot runs lead a dismal team to the WS
Ben Clemens
I think this too. I would actually say that the bset way to make the playoffs feel more fair is to make the regular season title feel more impactful. Celebrate it more, that kind of thing. Soccer does a good job of clearly delineating between playoff stuff (Champions League, very importnat, people really care) and regular season (people still really care). Baseball just makes the playoffs the only thing that matter to such an extent that these things like 'short series mean bad teams can win' feel bad to people. If you acknowledge that this is a tournament, feels different to me.
Benny The Jet
By then we'll probably have 4 wildcards per league
bosoxforlife
I'm already at the bar of the country club.
Dan Szymborski
2:38 isn't too early to drink!
Ben Clemens
Edmundo Sosa asking for the appeal himself and then being disappointed, hilarious
Dan Szymborski
Playoffs = Eagle Rare 12
illpod
Go full chaos and make the playoffs interleague. "oh but tradition" shut up I just wanna see what happens when the Dodgers and Padres have to play a World Series
Doug Lampert
The sun is always under the yardarm somewhere.
Worm Burner
I've never been clear on Kruk's true value as an actual analyst but he is usually entertaining in the booth. Who might you say has the biggest difference between the value they bring explaining the game versus their pure entertainment factor?
Ben Clemens
I feel similarly. The all-time greatest at this is Bill Walton, I believe.
bosoxforlife
A cold one after a round of golf is always appropriate.
Dan Szymborski
Or during!
drplantwrench
i personally cant stand matty v, whos your dream announcing team?
Michael Baumann
There's never been a mechanism for all three of these guys to work together but: Jason Benetti, Kyle Peterson and (don't kill kill me, I think he's great on TV) AJ Pierzynski
Benny The Jet
I think part of the dissonance is that when the playoffs featured the "best" 2-4 teams from each league, it felt more fair, where as now with just a dilution of the playoff field, it is much more common to see 81 win teams eliminate 100 win juggernauts in short series
Ben Clemens
Dallas Braden is up there for me. Not always a big fan of his opinions, but man, for whatever reason he's a fun listen for me. And while I often think Keith Hernandez's takes are antiquated, he's just SO delightful to listen to
Dan Szymborski
Yup, so the major choice become accepting MLB playoffs are just a really damn fun bonus or getting constantly annoyed. At least as I see it.
Ben Clemens
Great challenge by Albies, respect.
Michael Baumann
I think if you have a three-person booth you need a pitcher and a hitter. That's part of why Ron and Keith (or KP and either Eduardo Perez, Jess Mendoza or Chris Burke; or Pierzynski and Wainwright) works
Ben Clemens
short guys getting those high strikes called on them must LOVE abs
Ben Clemens
Totally agree, Mike. Hitter/pitcher/pbp is great
jonmberra
I’m biased but I want more Adam Wainwright in the booth. He just seems appropriately excited baseball, unlike some others.
Michael Baumann
Same. I think Wainwright's terrific in the booth, and he's a good straight man for Pierzynski
juan pierres mustache
still not getting over "mauricio dubon, playoff cleanup hitter"
bosoxforlife
I doubt if many would have ever predicted, 10 years ago, that Mauricio Dubon, a very valuable player, would, some day, be batting clean-up in a playoff series.
Ben Clemens
Yep, concur with you guys. I think that Pierzynski needs a foil, too.
Ben Clemens
What a play by Luzardo there. Having the presence of mind to not just chuck it to first but stop and make sure no run scores? Marvelous
Nathaniel
maybe they should just make bats without knobs? a new inefficiency to exploit?
Dan Szymborski
Oh the fan casualties
Klubot3000
Bunting is SO DUMB! WHY ARE WE STILL DOING THIS IN THE YEAR OF OUR LORD TWO THOUSAND AND TWENTY SIX
Dan Szymborski
Bunting is pretty good if it's not intended to be a sacrifice.
Eltneg
Didn't realize how bad Riley's been this season, did anyone figure out what's happened to his career last few years?
Dan Szymborski
I haven't figured it out. There have been so injuries, but none to cause this
Ben Clemens
Yeah, sometimes people just get worse, I guess
Michael Baumann
"How much pine tar would you need to hang on to a bat without a knob?" would've been a great Mythbusters episode
jromero
I wish bunting played a bigger part in the modern game it can make for some interesting plays and decisions that we don't see very often
Klubot3000
Fair fair, Dan, but that wasn't what Harris was doing. He's arguably the Braves best hitter vs lefties!
bosoxforlife
Did Weiss start Yaz left on left, because he knew Luzardo was just an opener and didn't want to waste him early?
Ben Clemens
Probably.
bob
Is anyone else almost 70 and wish game 1 started at 10 am?
Rich Hill's Fastball
PFPs!
Dan Szymborski
Not me, I'm 48 and am still kinda waking up at 10!
Michael Baumann
J.T. Realmuto might've ended his oh-fer, Matty, but I'm afraid that "real rough stretch" is still ongoing
Dan Szymborski
If this is the Realmuto in 2026, I'd hate to see the generic knockoff <rimshot>
Dan Szymborski
"He's having a tough mid 2020s"
bosoxforlife
I'm 84, on the east coast, and plan to watch the Cubs-Padres to its conclusion.
Ben Clemens
Realmuto is a great poster boy for how hard catching is. It has just worn him down.
Michael Baumann
a literal back-foot slider!
Dan Szymborski
Had a damn good peak. Hope he gets a few stray Hall votes
Ben Clemens
'who knows anymore?' John Kruk says about check swings. Aside from 'anymore' I totally agree with him
Klubot3000
The minor league check swing automated check is weird, and very different to the current interpretation from umps, but at least it's consistent
Ben Schneider
I think check swing challenges will be a good thing, but as Eric wrote earlier this year, the 45 degree line is waayyyyyy too far
Ben Clemens
Yeah I really agree with both the system and the fact that the line needs to change from what they're testing. It's not fair to ask umpires to do this. It's an impossible ask.
Eltneg
Does Yaz have the best career of any hitter to debut as late as he did, excluding Negro leaguers, Japanese pros, and Cubans? There's Hoyt Wilhelm for pitchers, but is there another case of a hitter coming up at 28 and being a 3-win player for 8 seasons?
Michael Baumann
No idea, though I'm gonna spend the next couple innings looking it up. I love this question because getting to the majors early is such a massive determining factor for a player's career, and it goes unnoticed by a lot of people
jromero
as much as I want the phillies to be the bad guys that was an accidental hit on kim right?
Ben Clemens
Yeah, for sure. They can still be villains without literally punching the other guys. (I don't think the Phillies are the bad guys, to be clear, but I respect your decision to do so)
Ben Clemens
Like, that is a very normal slide, Kim's head was in kind of an unexpected spot
Michael Baumann
I don't, tbc
Dan Szymborski
Socks Seybold and Ed Charles had more WAR than Yaz
beanbong
Kim somehow uses his whole body to put down a tag and it's burned him several times this year
Ben Clemens
Interesting! I had not noticed this.
SadaharuWhoa
I'm 37, in the Midwest, and plan to watch the Cubs-Padres until I get too sleepy or bored.
Dan Szymborski
10 PM still kinda early for me! I keep the hours of a club kid without the partying
Anonymous Member #46
Eltneg, the position player poster child for late debut legend is Edgar Martinez.
Dan Szymborski
Ah, but I was only counting debut age. The M's screwed around with him for a few years, he debuted younger
Anonymous Member #46
Boy, Trea Turner isn't playing well enough this year to be able to afford TOOTBLANs.
Gunther042
Hey gang, who at MLB can I contact to complain about the Cubs/Padres 9p central start time? For context, live in Iowa, work at 7am, have 2 kids under age 3. Who did this?
Ben Clemens
I think for this one, you probably need to blame whoever made the earth so dang big that time zones were necessary. Like eh, they have march madness games this late, it's the only first-round game on the west coast, that kinda thing. That said, why not let them overlap A LITTLE? Like, this should start at 9:30 ET, not 10ET, imo
Eltneg
Phillies have done Realmuto absolutely no favors by refusing to get a passable backup for his entire time here, he was so good and so durable for so long they could pretend they didn't need one and now the decline's brutal
Dan Szymborski
Gunther042, if MLB cared about complaints, then you probably wouldn't be in a state that has six blackout teams.
Eltneg
Yeah I'm only interested in debut age, guys who bounce around for a while before exhausting rookie eligibility late like Christian Walker or Pat Wisdom are a diff story to me.
juan pierres mustache
if you add together the batting lines this season of the two backup Cs on the phillies roster you get .252 / .352 / .318
shakersamman
Trying to figure out who in this game I’d most want to see in a roadtrip movie with Kruk, a la Planes, Trains and Automobiles. Harper could be fun.
Dan Szymborski
I think someone that would get exasperated with Kruk constantly. Like Doolittle or maybe Paul O'Neill?
Michael Baumann
if you lower the age threshold to 26 or 27 you get some fun answers. Earl Averill is the U.S.-born late debut king but before that he was playing the PCL, which was basically a major league at the time. Eddie Stanky debuted at 26 and had 37.0 WAR in the next nine seasons. Don Buford had a cup of coffee in his age-26 season and had 33.4 WAR over the next 8 years
Klubot3000
Since we've got little Mike Baumann in the chat, is there any precedent for a three-way negotiating group: MLB owners, MLB union, and fans? In a monopoly like MLB, should regulators step in on behalf of the customers at the negotiating table?
Dan Szymborski
How about Kruk/Maddux?
Michael Baumann
1) Nope, that's not how labor unions work and 2) There absolutely should be an independent regulation for all industries, especially a legal monopoly like pro sports, but unfortunately the U.S. gave up on government regulation forever in 1981
Ben Clemens
"First ever bullpen game in a game one in postseason history"
ehhhhhhh, that doesn't really sound interesting enough to me
Michael Baumann
I shudder to think what a federal Ministry of Sport would look like now, anyway
Ben Clemens
to get a mention. Like, there are plenty of glorified bullpen games in g1's. burning the whole team on the last day to make the playoffs is a time honored tradition
Ben Clemens
The ump cam/pitch trajectory overlay rocks, wow
Eltneg
Thanks for looking it up, Baumann. Never heard of Ed Charles before, looks like he was blocked by Eddie Matthews. If we're bringing up guys named "Socks Seybold" who debuted in the 19th century as comps it really shows how wild Yaz's career has been.
Ben Clemens
OOTP Perfect Team legend Socks Seybold! I have an irrational liking for that guy because there was a good version of him in the game one year.
Michael Baumann
Not all old-timey baseball nicknames were PC, but the fact that there's no one in the majors named Socks tells me we threw the baby out with the bathwater
tjcook87
Realistically, how many innings for Luzardo? Feel like the Phils with try and get 5, but that might not be safe or realistic with no ramp-up.
Michael Baumann
I'll level with you: If I were Don Mattingly, I would've taken 3 innings, 44 pitches and one earned run from Luzardo if you'd offered it before the game
shakersamman
Kruk/Walt Weiss would be fun too imo
josdawg
Don Mattingly's never seen a left-hander he didnt think he could leave in the game longer than advisable
bosoxforlife
Please come up with a way to get the check swing out of the umpires hands. It is awful and completely different with every umpire.
Dan Szymborski
Gotta get balls and strikes fully out first! This is a much harder one
HappyFunBall
Every inning they can get from Luzardo is an inning they can use later to cover for Nola
Ben Clemens
I *think* I understand why the Phillies ran out Nola on short rest in their pursuit of the playoffs. But uh…. 'Aaron Nola on short rest' also sounds like a cautionary tale to scare rookie managers with. I'm sure they'd be happy to give Nola as few innings as possible this series.
Ben Clemens
Oh man, Votto with the truth bomb. "Don't you think that excuse-me swing jam job might have had some luck to it?"
Klubot3000
Baumann, are you going to write about the college sports bill? Or save it till this lockout?
Michael Baumann
Probably not. It's not going to be as big a deal for baseball as for other sports and I'm not knowledgeable enough on the particulars to try to write about it freelance somewhere else. If you're interested in money and (especially college) sports and have a couple bucks a month to spend, Matt Brown's Extra Points newsletter is where you want to go for this.
Dan Szymborski
I'm surprised they're throwing Luzardo this much and not even sweating it now
Phillip Denny
Did anyone have "Luzardo pitches 4 IP" on their bingo cards?
Michael Baumann
I don't think 4 innings from Luzardo was that crazy coming in, but given all the traffic the past couple innings I wouldn't push it any further
josdawg
Do yall think teams approach to ABS challenge use will be different (meaningfully or otherwise) in the playoffs compared to regular season?
Ben Clemens
My prior is that they won't change much aside from more aggressively spending the last of them in the eighth/ninth
Ben Clemens
Like, if you go home with a challenge in your pocket in the playoffs, that feels worse than in an 8-1 August game.
Michael Baumann
I'm just going to assume the Phillies have at least two relievers warming up right now, because this is a baseball game being managed by Don Mattingly
Benny The Jet
I know I'm late but how is the Yaz trivia possible- in the age of Marlon Byrd and JD Martinez going from AAAA guys to superstars, not one anonymous 28 year old minor leaguer made a swing change to salvage a career?
Ben Clemens
I think the tricky part is how lastingly good Yaz has been. If one swing change can salvage your career in a lasting way, you might have found it earlier. I think of a poker saying: "If you start with a worse hand, even when you improve, you're likely to improve to second-best"
Phillip Denny
Oh Michael, Mattingly is old hat at leaving the SP in past his turns into pumpkin date. *Wallows in Kershaw*
Michael Baumann
That was more than 10 years ago! Mattingly's evolved! He's finding completely new ways to mismanage his pitching staff now!
Klubot3000
Broadcast just said no one was stirring with 2 on in the 4th, so maybe Mattingly is gonna run him back out for the 5th?
Dan Szymborski
Gotta think that was the plan if you had a dead bullpen with two guys on, even with two outs
Benny The Jet
Is it because MLB teams are that good at evaluating young talent? Attrition? Just a refusal to give a 28 year old a real look even if he hits 35 bombs in AA?
Dan Szymborski
Teams are way better than they used to be. Ken Phelps All-Stars aren't really a thing anymore. Pretty much anyone will eventually get a chance now
bosoxforlife
The ABS system has been a home run, pun intended. Does anyone see any chance for any alteration to get more early game challenges?
To finish out the Yaz discussion from earlier, I guess my point is just that it's really rare for you to hang around THAT long without ever happening upon something that spikes you up to the majors. And then have this one thing lastingly make it work. People have one-off good seasons, sure, but Yaz has been good for a very long time after a late start, and that combo (unproductive/unexciting enough that even with natural tinkering you don't hit the majors until 28, then lastingly good after) is just really unlikely. It's like a population or sampling bias or something.
Dan Szymborski
It does not
Klubot3000
It does open though, Dan. What is it showing?
Dan Szymborski
Oh, just projected wins vs. actual
Phillip Denny
This might have been discussed before, but why is Sale's slider not labeled a sweeper other than Sale likely being a red ass about it?
Ben Clemens
So, by convention (I guess?) 'sweeper' is about the induced break. Sale's pitch moves left to right a lot, but that's because of his arm slot. It doesn't really have much horizontal break to it, if that makes sense. He just throws it sideways. Whereas a 'sweeper' is one that diverges a lot from the flight path. It's kind of a distinction without a difference thing, though.
Benny The Jet
Always felt like one of the last true "slurves" to me
Dan Szymborski
I find slurves still quite effective in MLB the Show at least!
Rich Hill's Fastball
Safe to say that Yaz is the exception proving the rule?
Ben Clemens
Yeah for sure. And to Dan's point, I do think there were more Ken Phelps type guys avialable in the past. I don't think a hitter like Yaz would stick around until 28 without a debut anymore, either. It's kind of striking that the O's never gave him even a cup of coffee.
apeloton
Not a playoffs question but a comment for fg consideration – chats like this don’t show up on the app. I wish they did – they’re reliably excellent and it would be nice if they were in the same place as everything else
Ben Schneider
Dan Wilson was the only manager let go at the season's conclusion. Do you think we will see any other managers or executives get fired in the coming weeks?
Dan Szymborski
OOps, i responded in teh chat window lol
Dan Szymborski
I'm not sure – some of the guys who were on the precipice were axed in season
Dan Szymborski
I actually thought John Schneider might get fired
Dan Szymborski
Weird, now I haven't seen *anyone's* answer in this window since Ben at 3:19
thevenin
How is it possible that Chris Sale can be throwing harder than ever at age 37. I can't think of a single physical task I'll be better at when I'm 37 than I am now.
Ben Clemens
This is probably an unsatisfying answer, but without knowing anything about you, you're less of a crazy person than Chris Sale. Less than almost any pro athlete, really. I haven't met Chris Sale, and yet I feel very confident that he is basically maxing himself out trying to get better at baseball at all times. I agree it's kinda nuts to see him throwing this hard, but on the other hand, he's a 1-of-1 outlier guy in his physical mechanics and whatnot, and baseball as a whole is getting much better at throwing harder over time. Pretty cool that he's improving by enough to offest aging.
bosoxforlife
It would be more appropriate to fire Vlad Guerrero .
henrywilson
I wonder if the near World Series win last year earned Schneider a chance at one more season to turn things around.
Ben Clemens
I would assume so.
Michael Baumann
Also if you are more of a crazy person than Chris Sale, please get out of this chat
Klubot3000
And @thevenin, you've got to believe in yourself a bit more. I was way better at tennis at 37 than I was at 27!
Ben Clemens
actually yeah! I PR'ed in the half marathon at 37 38 and 39 (didn't run one at 40, but honestly I probably have topped out now)
Benny The Jet
Looking at this Phillies roster it is striking how effectively Dave Dombrowski has recreated the 2013-14 Tiger's roster shape (both complementary and derogatory)
illpod
I'm going to go back in time and fire Jeff Hoffman and save everyone the discussion
Phillip Denny
Don't forget, Sale was going to retire after the 2024 season!
Phillip Denny
5 of the 8 G1 starters are lefties. Just goes to show, all things equal, it's better to throw with the funny arm.
Ogbert
Lunchtime at work, so finally here to join the party. Happy playoffs, all!
Ben Clemens
Happy playoffs!
Ben Clemens
Okay, so Votto just said "Kyle is not thinking 'I'm gonna homer you.'"
I totally believe that hitters are being sincere when they talk about just trying to take a good at-bat and if the homers come they come. But um, I'm sorry, do people say "I'm gonna homer you?" Like, homer as a verb that way?
Rich Hill's Fastball
"Queen Latifah played second base for me one day" he's a national treasure
Michael Baumann
Kruk's been on his best behavior all day and I was so delighted he couldn't keep that one in
Ben Clemens
Oh man, I misjudged that one. Thought it was out for sure.
Dan Szymborski
Hmm, closing my browser completely and reconnecting still leaves everything frozen at 3:19
Rich Hill's Fastball
The entire park thought that was gone
bosoxforlife
I was certain that was gone.
Ben Schneider
That sure looked like a homer off the bat
henrywilson
That ball must have had some crazy spin on it to get foul!
richwp01
I hope Dan and Ben are wrong, and Michael is right about the White Sox. I want to see them win, and beat Cleveland.
Ben Clemens
There's no rooting in the press box, of course. But I'm not in the press box, and I will definitely be rooting for all the underdogs in the segmented part of my brain that isn't neutral for objective coverage.
Dan Szymborski
You have to make them more special, which they won't do
Dan Szymborski
I root in order: Orioles->Chaos->Underdogs->Non-Yankees->Yankees
Benny The Jet
Chris Sale's longest career postseason start? Really?
Dan Szymborski
Yeah, I double taked there too and am alreayd checking
Phillip Denny
Vasgersian definitely baited us on the call.
Michael Baumann
I thought it was foul off the bat and he immediately went Full "THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT" and startled the hell out of me. Man got so hyped to do his big home run call he couldn't hold it in
Ben Clemens
Dan I'm pretty similar overall. I also root for all the teams that have never won a WS in general.
angryyankeesfan
I didn't realize until the pre-game that Sale hasn't been very good in the postseason.
Michael Baumann
How quickly everyone forgets the near-Kershaw-level Sale Playoff Discourse of 2018
Dan Szymborski
But it's true. Sale's longest start was 5 1/3 innings. Probably because his ERA is 6.35
Dan Szymborski
Actually Sale's first playoff appearance since 2021
Benny The Jet
Tigers fan here- willing to accept a temporary armistice with White Sox fans if they can take down Cleveland for us
tjcook87
Sale not having a ton of postseason starts makes sense, cuz it's Sox, 2018, injured essentially.
Ben Clemens
Good reminder that postseason reputations aren't a straight accounting of how you did. Matters a lot what people remember. We're all so surprised by Sale's lack of postseason pedigree because he seems like such a bulldog.
Phillip Denny
Hey look, another reliever I've never heard of who throws 99!
Ben Clemens
No no, now we just call that "a reliever". Throwing 99 is redundant these days
Michael Baumann
My pet theory is that 95% of Clutch Discourse is nothing but phrenology. People decide whether an athlete's clutch based on what his face look like
Ben Clemens
Harris's hit there was a great example of why hard fastballs away are generally not adored. It's easier to be late on them and yet punch it through.
Ben Clemens
I totally agree with you, Baumann
Dan Szymborski
phrenology would at least be a consistent bad approach. clutch is typically used just as an excuse to say whatever you want to say about a guy anyway without a mean old stathead standing in your way
Dan Szymborski
Derek Hill slid like it was a wet bathroom floor
Ogbert
Dang, actually overreached for that ball and it got him on the wrist
Ogbert
Did he actually knock that back in play?
Chad Young
Hi everyone! Couldn't be here for the full game, but I am here now and should be able to stick around for the start of the next game, as well. Got the TV on just in time to see that Albies triple. Sorry, Phils fans. Might be my fault.
Ben Schneider
Is there wind blowing we haven't heard about? That also looked like it went further than expected
Phillip Denny
Might be a Jay question, but Sale is a blank cap HOF dude? I could make the case for White Sox but neither the Cy nor WS happened there.
Ben Clemens
I understand that play's hard, but a lot of big league center fielders make it. I don't think he knocked it back in, I think if it hit his glove he would have, but his arm didn't appaer to be over the wall.
Dan Szymborski
I bet Sale goes in with a Braves cap
Benny The Jet
What a phenomenal half a play (the jump and route looked great), and what an awful half a play
Dan Szymborski
Is Riley just deciding to swing or not before the pitch is even thrown?
Rich Hill's Fastball
I should change my name to "Derek Hill's balance"
angryyankeesfan
From Reacher season 4, episode 1: "Phillies have a kid who throws 100. I want to see him before he blows his arm out." He was clearly referring to Alex McFarlane.
Dan Szymborski
BREAKING: Riley isn't comfortable against pitches.
bosoxforlife
Whom would you rather have on the mound, Chris Sale throwing his 7th inning or Alex McFarland throwing his first pitch?
Ben Clemens
Well now I'll take Sale :). No, I would have probably taken Sale anyway.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Because it looks bad on it's face but is deceptively quite good!
Michael Baumann
Shout out to Ozzie Albies for crushing a ball off a righthander, I didn't know he could do that
Dan Szymborski
Man, I've gotten almost ALL local commercials on this one. MLB having trouble selling the national ones? Remember that year it was Lowe's/Home Depot (forget which) every single break?
Michael Baumann
Thought the Phillies were home free once Albies was done facing lefties for the day
Dan Szymborski
OH wait, this is peacock, not mlb.tv
drewcorb
TKDC: "The 2pm start time is so stupid. The number of people trying to watch 11 hours of baseball on a Tuesday has to be in the triple digits, a few thousand max.
I cannot relate to this. I love 12 hours of baseball even if I can't watch it all
Michael Baumann
I'm with Drew. Nothing I love more than a wall-to-wall Sports On TV day, and the first week of MLB playoffs is up there with the first weekend of March Madness, the Olympics, the group stage of the World Cup…
drplantwrench
local fangraphs member represents unbiased sample who loves 12 hours of straight baseball
Rich Hill's Fastball
Seen a lot of discourse about Tolle's reverse splits? Isn't this just sampling bias because only the best LHHs actually face him?
Ben Clemens
Interesting, and surely part of it. That's part of a lot of platoon splits, though. Like, in general, you get tougher matchups of your own handedness as a pitcher. It's also a small sample size thing. And also I kind of think Tolle might be a neutral-platoon guy b/c he's weird and throws fastballs.
Ben Schneider
I'm watching real NBC, and half the ads are for candidates in New Hampshire
Ben Clemens
So kind of a little of column a, little of column b
henrywilson
The ability to only watch half the games because they are happening at the same time would be much stupider.
Benny The Jet
We have 89 people in this chat alone so
Ben Clemens
There are dozens of us!
Ben Clemens
"I get why Bryson is bunting here" wait I don't!
TKDC
The number of people who really want to watch right now but can’t is far larger than the number trying to watch all 11 hours.
Phillip Denny
Of the top of your head, does the bunt percentage meaningfully increase in the postseason?
Ben Clemens
This is not a bunt spot! They're down and they need to not sacrifice outs. Pinch hit for him if you must.
bosoxforlife
One of the best parts of the 2026 season has been the return of the offensive bunt.
Ben Clemens
Kruk needs to flame Stott for not bunting there to be consistent.
Dan Szymborski
Hit for butters
Phillip Denny
baseball gods be like "ball don't lie"
Ben Clemens
I like to think the baseball gods rewarded De La Cruz for making an actual effort to get out of the way of that slider.
turquoiseyoshi
The political ads that you get for these sorts of games are fascinating. I guess there's nothing seriously contested in PA or GA right now
Michael Baumann
PA's got a gubernatorial election this year. I've gotten a couple ads but the density is nowhere near what I've seen in other years. I guess no one credible wants to run against Josh Shapiro after he [REDACTED]
richwp01
Anyone think White Sox are crazy enough to let Hagen go 11 batters, to get Yordan twice?
Ben Clemens
I think this would be a VERY poor decision given that Yordan crushes everyone about the same
Dan Szymborski
See the lack of fear a manager has pulling Sale? Scherzer makes a manager wonder if he's risking his life
Ben Clemens
they have eight trillion lefty relievers, too, if they just MUST have a lefty against him
Benny The Jet
My local station is now kicking the game for the local news…
lzfreak
This is one of those fun situations where Sale could theoretically get the win, the loss, or no decision
Ben Clemens
That said I might bring in Grant Taylor for the second time through, lol
Phillip Denny
RE for 1– ,1 out is 0.48. RE for -2-, 2 out is 0.31. BUT maybe we're spending too much time thinking about run expectancy and should instead consider fun expectancy.
richwp01
Jim Margalus from Sox Machine noted: "With Yordan Alvarez coming to the plate in the first inning and weaker against lefties as of late …
First half vs. LHP: .286/.346/.551 over 110 PA
Second half vs. LHP: .234/.324/.391 over 74 PA"
Ben Clemens
At FanGraphs, we're not allowed to quote 74-PA platoon splits.
Ogbert
Kind of amazed Stott's hitting behind Derek Hill and BDLC
Michael Baumann
They've platooned Stott quite a bit in the past and both Hill and De La Cruz have hit lefties well this season. I don't know if I'd write the same lineup but it's less crazy than it looks just based on the names
Ben Clemens
or at least, I hope we're not.
Dan Szymborski
Don't need a crazy bunt hit rate to make a bunt worthwhile. Just not sure Stott is that guy
Benny The Jet
Pinch-hitter Justin Crawford is brutal
Ben Clemens
Yeah, woof
Sonny L
Big ‘I know what those words mean but not in that order’ energy on that PH
angryyankeesfan
They needed a ball in play and, well, they got it. Is Marsh better? I don't know.
Ben Clemens
Yeah, I'm not saying it's a bad decision. It just feels bad that it's their best option.
Michael Baumann
OH MY GOD REALMUTO GOT A HIT!
lzfreak
Do we think Fast Ronald Acuna is coming back or is he just done running now?
Chad Young
He stole 21 bases this year but was caught 8 times, which is a really low success rate by his standard, but 21 steals is the 4th most in his career, even with only 107 games played. Given the decreased success rate and the need to keep him healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if he runs a bit less, maybe? But I don't think he is going to stop. I would bet on 20-25 steals in a full season. 70 isn't happening again.
Dan Szymborski
Acuña did his own vaudeville skit there
lzfreak
Ben are you doing manager report cards again this year? Those are always a fun read.
Ben Clemens
We're teaming up to do them this year. Last year Dan grabbed some of them, but we're now going to break them up even more
angryyankeesfan
Would you hit for Realmuto here?
Ogbert
What is going on with that warning track? Do they grease it up for The Freeze?
angryyankeesfan
This is why I'm not a manager
Fangraphs Man
Some real bad handling of the wall in this game
Dan Szymborski
It's not like the PHillies have an exciting bench
richwp01
(I mean White Sox coverage grasping for something against a great hitter)
Ben Clemens
haha yeah, I agree that that's what is going on here. I'd just say focus on giving your pitchers the best matchups for them. Yordan is a force of nature. He happens to you, you don't happen to him.
Dan Szymborski
BTW – in ZiPS, a Braves win put them up 70/30, Phillies win puts them up 80/20
tjcook87
Two (2) more triples in this game so far than anticipated.
bosoxforlife
Shout out to Ben calling that one! The outside fastball that can be driven the other way.
Ben Clemens
Better lucky than good when it comes to predictions
Benny The Jet
Is Duran getting 9 outs?
Michael Baumann
If Duran's getting nine outs I'm probably going to be dead by the time the game ends, in which case, it's been a pleasure chatting with you guys
dpa28
Can Duran go 2 here? Should mattingly really trust Bowlan?
Ben Clemens
Ooh, this is a good question (and one many are asking). I am expected value pilled, and I would probably only want Duran for one inning to preserve optionality for the future but I'm pretty sure that's not going to be a popular take
Chad Youngedited
Triples were up across MLB this year vs. last, but XBH were down. 7,493 doubles is 252 fewer than last year and those are the two lowest doubles totals since the COVID year. Triples were up to 671 from 628. Is that why we got two triples today? Yes, definitely, that is why.
Jon Becker
Hello everyone, I'm not "supposed" to be here until CHW/HOU but Duran in the seventh has me pumped
Phillip Denny
Duran is certainly getting more than 3 outs imo, question is how much more than that.
Ben Clemens
Yeah, exactly haha. I do think I am right. I do not think that what I would prefer will happen.
Seuss2004
I like this pitching move by Don Mattingly.
Ben Clemens
I wouldn't mind Duran for the top of the order and then a low-lev guy at the end
Ben Clemens
like, I really do want him for Baldwin and co
Chad Young
I like going to Duran here – he is supposed to be available for more than an inning, and maybe you have to figure out the ninth, but if he is efficient…who knows?
Seuss2004
[Head explodes at this sentence]
Michael Baumann
My guess is Mattingly's going to try to get through the top half of the order at least, maybe as far as Albies if he gets through quickly. After that, Painter if it's a clean inning, Bowlan if not
Chad Young
If he can get you 7 and 8 and leave the bottom of the order for someone else, that's not a bad outcome. If he gets a couple of quick innings and the pitch count stays low, maybe he can get another?
Jon Becker
Atlanta's lineup drops off very quickly after the top three, IMO, so he's certainly getting four batters and to Baumann's point, getting through the sixth spot is in play if he's efficient enough
Ben Clemens
yeah. although they have to play tomorrow. and they'd probably want Jhoan Duran for that
Jon Becker
You run the risk of him being absolutely gassed tomorrow but a bird in the hand and all that
Ben Clemens
I really do like using him against the top though
angryyankeesfan
Just saw the Yankees starting lineup and Aaron Boone has Rosario at 3rd base. If we lose game 1 on a Rosario error I'm going to be pissed.
Ben Clemens
Just putting you on the record so you can say you called it if it happens.
Chad Young
Agreed with that, Jon – get the win now and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. You might be up 8 tomorrow, who knows.
Michael Baumann
Consider the lilies of the field, Becks
lzfreak
As a Twins fan I'm really nostalgic for that splinker
Jon Becker
Want to take the opportunity to call out Duran expanding his pitch mix even more this year, adding a sweeper to give him some east-west
Dan Szymborski
Hey Jon, Chad (sorry was in bathroom)
Eltneg
You think there's any chance MLB moves away from the balanced schedule and returns to placing more emphasis on divisional/league games, or is there too much money to be made by having the Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Dodgers visit every city?
Chad Young
I would be curious what others think about this, but I will say I kinda HOPE they go less balanced. I find the divisional rivalries fun and I think it makes post-season series more special. It also sets them up well for expansion, because the schedule will almost have to get less balanced at that point, I think.
Ben Clemens
I hear you guys saying you have to play like there's no tomorrow. My counter is that you're not adding that much win probability by having tired Duran go against the Braves' bad hitters compared to someone else. It's not liek if you take Duran out, you lose the game.
nuttingtolose
Isn't the leverage of an extra inning today likely to be higher than an inning in tomorrow's game?
Ben Clemens
Yeah. For sure. But like, okay, why not use Wheeler and Painter and Nola and have Duran throw the first 4 innings then? Like, it's all a tradeoff somewhere
Chad Young
Totally fair, Ben. And I am not saying he has to pitch the 9th. But by going to him now, you get him through the top of the order and potentially have the option to let him finish it out.
bosoxforlife
Is anybody else here old enough to remember Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers and Mike Marshall and………?
Jon Becker
I'm old enough to know how to look on YouTube for highlights
Dan Szymborski
I do miss crazy closers
Ben Clemens
I think I'm just differently placed on the 'how much should we slam the closer' spectrum, and believe that extending guys this long has more carryover effects. But yeah, I think we're basically mostly in agreement here.
Ogbert
Just missed that one, Ronnie
lowreslotad
Oh man the sound off the bat fooled me there
Jon Becker
Every playoffs I forget how close the field mics are, on average, compared to the regular season
Ben Clemens
Dylan Lee is one of my favorite random major leaguers. He's great! And has been for a while. And you might not know who he is
Rich Hill's Fastball
iVB mentioned!
Klubot3000
Great tee up by Votto
Michael Baumann
Dylan Lee changed either his hair or beard but for a while he looked exactly like Leon Draisaitl
Ben Clemens
this booth has been quite good today imo
Sonny L
Phils getting one more run would go a long way towards the Duran question. Bottom of ATL’ lineup w a 2 run lead is a very different ask
Chad Young
For sure. The calculus changes a lot with another run, let alone if they are somehow able to break it open.
SpiderTribe
Am I the only one who thinks that this iteration of John Kruk sounds like Buck Martinez?
Dan Szymborski
Maybe then he manage too! Which would be highly entertaining
Sonny L
Votto and Kruk are amazing
Jon Becker
Took a while for the booth to gel — I think three guys up in the booth and one on the field is REALLY hard to coordinate and cue Votto in, but it's been awesome since the middle innings
Dan Szymborski
Actually, Votto/Kruk already would be a good Planes, Trains and Automobiles pair or a Road to… pari
Klubot3000
Oh cmon, NOBODY sounds like Buck
Ben Clemens
hahahaha "Somebody smart, wasn't Francoeur, was it?" and then someone in the booth even said "frenchy catching strays". Delightful to me.
Sonny L
Yeah they should lock CJ out tomorrow and let Votto in the booth
Jon Becker
CJ's been good too! Just not as ridiculous as Kruk, because nobody is. When you have 17 guys on the mic you gotta get a pitcher in there
kbm5088
The idea of pitchers possibly getting their first hold and save of the year (if it is Painter) is a little fun
Jon Becker
AJ Blubaugh led relievers in innings this year without a single start and he's starting G1 for the Astros. In the playoffs, up is down and right is left and red is blue
Dan Szymborski
I have to admit, what's fun broadcasting for me these days isn't what is best for most fans. I mostly like nonsense. Unless you're going to break down mechanics, I don't get much out of the playcall or the analysis
showerat
shadows mentioned!
Michael Baumann
You can see they're coming in almost parallel with the first base line instead of straight over the backstop. I love how they always play afternoon postseason games at the ballpark that's facing the wrong direction
Phillip Denny
Feels like losing Sosa's glove for the Crawford pinch hit will hurt. I imagine their ideal defensive sub lineup would have him at 3B
Jon Becker
The Phillies' ideal defensive lineup is still… not great, so I get prioritizing offense in that moment
Jon Becker
OH WOW what a catch
Dan Szymborski
Reminds me of that Jose Fernandez/Troy Tulowitzki play
Ben Clemens
"ball caught him" applies here
Jon Mozes
That Duran GIF of him catching his breath is gonna SLAP
Chad Young
Just defending himself…wow
Jon Becker
Okay we're now reaching the "Duran has thrown few enough pitches to get five outs where you start thinking about the ninth" territory
Michael Baumann
I also thought that hit him in the chest. Man, that scared him to death
Ben Clemens
That throw looks like something I'd do (derogatory)
Chad Young
That baserunner is interesting for the Duran question. If that chopper ends the inning, it's a 6 pitch inning and 19 total pitches through 2 IP. Makes a third seem less risky. Instead, we're still going.
Jon Becker
For all of the "players have great internal clocks" talk (and they absolutely do) I'm amazed by how many times you see throws made where the infielder is looking right at the runner he has no shot of getting
Chad Young
We're also one step closer to Baldwin getting another PA, likely against not-Duran
Ben Clemens
I'd be pretty interseted in running on Duran here
Ben Clemens
But eh, it's not really Atlanta's thing, so I get it.
Klubot3000
I'd be pretty interested in scoring on Duran here
Rich Hill's Fastball
Think Duran saw his life flash before his eyes?
Ben Clemens
Our interests are correlated
Benny The Jet
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I kind of love the shadows this time of year- feels like the manifestation of October subtly putting its finger on the scale
Ben Clemens
Good pickup by Kruk and Votto that Harper doesn't konw where to stand and is trying to get the dugout's attention. Probably won't matter, but those are the kind of observations that I would not pick up otherwise.
Phillip Denny
well 9 outs is probably out of the question now.
Chad Young
Yeah, I think that Harris grounder made it hard and the long Albies PA ended it.
Ben Clemens
"I guarantee you if it was bad to win the challenge, Atlanta wouldn't have challenged" well yeah….
Sonny L
6 outs isn’t guaranteed
Michael Baumann
Duran gassed in a multi-inning stint against the Dodgers last year, this is gonna be touch-and-go
angryyankeesfan
Ever heard of a challenge for a NON-hit-by-pitch?
Jon Becker
I see at least a few a year when a wild pitch would've scored a run
Chad Young
Oh wow
Ben Clemens
Hey guys, I don't think Duran is going nine.
Dan Szymborski
Man, now I feel bad for ragging on Riley earlier
Phillip Denny
Man I was JUST about to slander Riley too. Great swing.
HappyFunBall
And just like that, Austin Riley's entire season is redeemed
Ben Clemens
What a swing.
Jon Becker
Riley has never been a good fastball hitter and has been especially bad against them this year, but when you put it there…
Ben Clemens
To be fair, Duran is beyond gassed and threw him a mid-mid spinner
Dan Szymborski
Well, they may have solved the Duran three inning problem.
Phillip Denny
Ben I believe you are entitled to an "I told you so" here
Michael Baumann
Well, I gotta go start my recap. It's been something, folks.
Ben Clemens
ehhhhh…. baseball's pretty random. he easily could have not had that happen. All I'll say is that sometimes good pitchers get got, and sometimes bad pitchers excel. so I like not pushing my guys too much
lzfreak
Why keep Duran in after the homer?
Dan Szymborski
At that point, it's down 2 with bases empty
Michael Baumann
And if Matt or Meg is reading this, I didn't mean "start" my recap, I've been writing for at least four innings now
Chad Young
Hindsight and all that, but Duran looked gassed during the Albies PA and after the Olson liner plus the total lack of control vs. Albies…maybe was time to make a change?
Seuss2004
I always hated this pitching decision by Don Mattingly.
Ben Clemens
I mean, what a disaster for the PHillies now, though. Now Duran is either unavailable or sketchily available tomorrow
Ben Clemens
but obviously they'll have to run him out there, playing with no net. and then that SURELY means he's out for g3
Rich Hill's Fastball
Mattingly made the right moves there I think; sometimes you just get got.
Jon Becker
I thought it was the correct move at the time and didn't even mind him staying in against Riley but in the playoffs the ends have to justify the means or nobody cares, and, well
Ben Clemens
'sometimes you just get got' is the truest baseball thing
drplantwrench
i think Foolish BB had a video about Austin Riley where he theorized a lot of mental barriers and issues holding his season down. Playoffs are a great place to break out of mental ruts
angryyankeesfan
Considering the Phillies are likely to be in an elimination scenario, I would imagine that Duran is available for an inning tomorrow.
Ben Clemens
100%. Has to be.
Phillip Denny
literally everyone, including Wheeler, should be available in an elimination game.
Ben Clemens
Yeah. I mean, has to be. It's never ideal to go into an elimination game with your closer already gassed. But like…. they're here now. No other options. Play it as it lies.
Chad Young
I think having him face the top of the order in the 7th and start the 8th was the right call, though maybe he McFarlane could have gotten Smith? But I have no issue with that. The question was always "how long can you wait before pulling him?" and there is a good case to be made that the Albies PA should have been the signal to make that call. But I dunno, I think I probably would have stuck with him, too.
Nathaniel
we all know that dusty baker and glenn burke invented the high five; but who invented the post-homer forearm whack?
Ben Clemens
Cody Bellinger, much to his own chagrin
lzfreak
Fun fact: I once saw Raisel Iglesias hit a triple at Wrigley Field back when he was a starter with the Reds
Jon Becker
The Phillies not having a better option than De La Cruz to hit against Iglesias there really encapsulates their lack of offensive depth and how much they surely miss Arraez
Ben Clemens
Okay, seems like challenge behavior won't chnage. Stott just let one on the corner go, with two challenges left, down two, two outs, top 9
Ben Clemens
The camera having no clue where the ball was at the end there was fun.
Chad Young
Postseason pressure gets to everyone, even the camera people
Jon Becker
And there's time to regroup before White Sox/Astros. Pop some popcorn and get ready to dissect bullpens, everyone
Ben Clemens
Honestly the shadows are probably BRUTAL if you're looking through a camera for a ball
whitstifier
Don't forget that Mattingly warmed up Bowlan for no reason
Chad Young
See, Duran DID finish out the game.
Ben Clemens
what if we did all the bad things.
Ben Clemens
haha Chad, touche
Ben Clemens
I want to give the broadcast booth some props for the fact that they were discussing the possibility of Duran's workload being 1/2/3 innings and how it might work or not work. I feel like that'd be an easy one to just gloss over and focus on "the mental intensity of the playoffs" and whatnot, kudos to them for spending some time talking about the decision beforehand rather than just evaluating it after.
Chad Young
As good as Mahle was down the stretch for ATL, if I am a Phillies fan, I am feeling good about my chances to force a third game. But probably need Sanchez to give them some real length just to avoid the pen.
Phillip Denny
well now we can speculate and criticize the pitching choices for CHW and HOU since they're both running openers!
Ben Clemens
I'm recapping this one and oh man, I'm dreading how many pitchers I'll have to write about already.
drplantwrench
as an angels fan, i will never not love raisel. one of the most underrated blunders by perry to trade him
Ben Clemens
That was such a shocking trade. Like, they salary dumped him right after giving him a free agent deal that he was living up to.
war2d2
Personally think they should have told Wheeler “you’re the bullpen.” Just run him out there for the 6,7,8 innings every game to get to Duran.
Dan Szymborski
Yeah, but then you're likely getting an Aaron Nola elimination game start
dtpollitt
Wow I had no idea, Trea Turner, how bad you've been this season…
Dan Szymborski
He's been downgraded to Deuce Turner
cashgod27
On paper that's the game the Phillies could afford to lose but that goes out the window when Duran throws 25 pitches
Chad Young
Yeah that is the rough part. Had they gotten rocked and saved Duran as a result, this would feel much better.
Ben Clemens
Dan they basically ran a Nola elimination game start on short rest down the stretch. I'm not saying I'd do that. But they seem surprisingly okay with the possibility.
eccentricatlfan
To be fair re: Iglesias, it’s the Angels we’re talking about, they haven’t exactly been the best with their decision-making.
Ben Clemens
Oh yeah. I mean, that's the reasoning for it. Big credit to the Braves for not fumbling the bag though. If someone hands you free money, take it.
Rich Hill's Fastball
That game was awesome: great starting pitching, controversial manager decisions, a very costly error, fun fielding happenings, huge homer, Joey Votto!
Chad Young
Agreed. Good performances + drama + stuff we can argue about = what playoff baseball should be
Ben Clemens
yeah. wonderful start to the playoffs.
Jon Becker
And only 7-8 more hours to go tonight
misterjohnny
Anyone know the channel for the Astros game on directv? Or am missing screwed?
Sean Dolinar
Anyone know what channel NBCSN is?
Sonny L
What a whiplash. Duran cruising until he wasn’t. Playoff baseball rules
Ben Clemens
NBCSN doesn't seem to exist for me, Peacock only. I don't even know if my cable package offers it.
war2d2
Man now I feel extra put out that I’m at work and having to follow on game day.
Sonny L
Yeah how in the world do I find NBCSN?
Ben Clemens
Compass, sextant, astrolabe, and a Peacock subscription
benbenben
Is it weird that I enjoy "bottom of the 8th taking the lead" more than walk-offs? I just love it because it's so unexpectedly abrupt – both teams are gearing up for the 9th as the "do or die" inning, looking ahead to matchups and such, and then suddenly the game is flipped and there's only the top of the 9th. It's just such a shock to the system.
Ben Clemens
I agre. It feels similar to top of the ninth. Chance to counter for the team that gave up the lead is fun too.
Seuss2004
Having not watched the play itself – did Turner have a play on that ball with 2 outs that could have ended the inning, or was that an infield single all the way?
Jon Becker
Nah he had no shot
Jon Becker
I don't think even Masyn Winn has the arm to get him there
drplantwrench
thinking about it more, its fascinating to think how perry traded two great closers, raisel and carlos estevez. one has aged well the other hasnt played in a year, and the latter is the one that netted the angels the prospects in return (??)
Ben Clemens
I guess what I'd say is that the Estevez trade was pretty much market rate, as I remember from the time. And eh, everyone got what they wanted out of that. The Iglesias trade was just shocking right on the face of it, right away. To the point where I wonder whether this was an Arte-mandated salary dump or something? IT was just…. an all star closer…. for nothing. Right when the Braves could use one too.
docgooden85
Google says NBCSN is on YoutubeTV and xfinity cable only.
docgooden85
I subscribe to Peacock and still want to boycott showing PLAYOFF baseball on streaming only* (*I don't get NBCSN on my cable provider).
CWess
YT TV has NBCSN
misterjohnny
Epic fail by MLB to put a playoff game on streaming. Only available in half of TV households through cable/satellite.
Ben Clemens
Um, "they play small ball, they run the bases" Eric Hosmer have you watched the White Sox?
Jon Becker
I think when one player is very unique in that sense (Sam Antonacci, hello) it gets extrapolated to the whole team, and, uh…
Ben Clemens
I like watching the White Sox, I'd put them high on my subjective viewing list this year. I cannot think of a worse way to describe them.
Jon Becker
Did Hosmer just say Riley should be hitting 4th?
Ben Clemens
Okay I have to go and start getting ready to recap this game but first I have to say this. These FanDuel ads SUCK. They're so bad. I hope baseball and NBC are embarrassed to play them. I hope they face consequences for their ridiculous, craven embrace of these bad actors. Happy playoffs!
Chad Young
Sox are 10th in sac bunts, but they're among a bunch of other teams there, not like a big bunting team. They are T-18th in stolen bases, but 12th in CS.
Phillip Denny
there's a defensible argument to just not pitching to Yordan all series and making everyone else beat you.
Jon Becker
Absolutely, though going with Hagen Smith to start makes me think they're pitching to him in the first, which I endorse
Benny The Jet
Do we get a bases empty IBB to Yordan this series? Bases loaded IBB ever happening again?
Chad Young
I'll say there is at least a chance of the former, but no way on the latter. I just can't really see the scenario for that. Bases loaded, up 4, two outs?
Jon Becker
Tom McCarthy announcing something besides a Phillies game or the worst NFL matchup on CBS is a new one, I think
Jon Beckeredited
Steve Stone's tie is pretty cool (these are the insights you get from a Jon Becker live chat when I slept five hours last night)
Chad Young
Even on the bases empty IBB, I struggle to think of a situation in which it makes sense, especially with Paredes behind him and the Crawford boxes beckoning.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay, I've screamed into a pillow and cried in the shower so now I am ready to chat.
Jon Becker
Was more than a little surprised by the Astros going with Blubaugh to start over a lefty; this lets the White Sox deploy Grichuk exactly when they want to and creates a pocket of lefties 9-1-2 where Espada could be baited into bringing a lefty in only to face Grichuk
Chad Young
I think my biggest question in this series is what we see from Murakami. He was so bad for a stretch there, and I was wondering if the league had just adjusted to him, but he finished strong. What does he look like when an org can be just laser focused on how to pitch him?
Anon21
That White Sox player was really pumped to get that walk…good for him!
Eric Longenhagen
Sammy is a spikey, intense guy who will jaw with others and stir things up.
Phillip Denny
O/U 0.5 PA by Tommy Pham this series?
Jon Becker
Over
Phillip Denny
Antonacci never had below a .425 (!) OBP in any minor league season, and as a rookie had a .370. Insert Jonah Hill moneyball meme here.
Chad Young
Pham is the second or maybe even third choice RH bat off the bench for the Sox, but the Sox will PH aggressively in the OF.
Benny The Jet
Maybe if LaRussa was still managing the Sox- half joking
Eric Longenhagen
LaRussa was at WPBL Opening Day and looks like a Halloween decoration. He's done so much for animal wellness, but yeah toward the end he seemed regressive just to prove a point.
Chad Young
White Sox were third in MLB in PH PA with 218. Only Texas (220) and Detroit (224) had more.
Jon Becker
Not sure how many first baseman even attempt that throw from that angle, Walker being really good (and surely knowing he is) bit him there
Jon Becker
Bryan King, the reverse splits lefty, is warming in the bullpen for the Astros already, per reporters there. O/U 6.5 pitchers for Houston in today's game?
Anonymous Member #46
Eric, what are the five tools you look for in a screaming pillow? And how does your current pillow grade out?
Eric Longenhagen
I can think of just two…
1) Foam Density – Less dense foam better absorbs and muffles the sounds so the neighbors don't call the authorities.
2) Drool Rings – The rings created by your sleepytime spittle give your screaming pillow character, like Craig Biggio's helmet.
Jon Becker
Looks like Miguel Ullola is also getting loose in the bullpen, he can give 2-3 innings no problem
Chad Young
No issue working around Vargas there, but worth noting Murakami has all of three GIDP this season. You can get him to K, but the ball is never on the ground.
Jon Becker
And there's the fly ball
Chad Young
Once Antonacci got to third with one out, I still think being cautious with Vargas and going after Murakami was the best path forward, but that sac fly was so likely. Though, given what we have seen since, maybe he wasn't being cautious with Vargas, maybe he just can't throw strikes?
lmb2020
You could roll a ball across the plate and Murakami would put it in the air
HappyFunBall
Granted this is narrative but … maybe don't give a reliever his first ever MLB start in a playoff game one?
Jon Becker
Came up through the minors as a starter and started three games last year, I don't really think that factored. He just didn't have it
drplantwrench
astros playing like a below .500 team
beanbong
pitcher named Blubaugh getting you oh so close but not quite able to finish (the inning)
Jon Becker
King looked pretty sharp, would guess the plan is to get him through Teel at least knowing that Venable probably wouldn't pull the trigger on Grichuk unless it's a RISP situation
Chad Young
I also think it's worth noting that this was his inning:
8 pitch walk
Weak GO after getting ahead 0-2
5 pitch walk to a guy you can accept a 5 pitch walk
Lazy fly ball after getting ahead 0-1
5 pitch walk
Other than the Benitendi walk, it's not super clear he didn't have it today.
Sean Dolinar
If any of you want to delay the chat to match your streaming situation. If you 1.) refresh the page and 2.) look for the cog icon in the top right corner of the chat, you can delay the chats messages up to 3 minutes.
lmb2020
Do runs scored via walks and sac flies go on the small ball ledger?
Chad Young
I think walk, move up on a FC, advance on an error, score on a sac fly is definitely small ball
Eric Longenhagen
Sean, this is really cool.
Sean Dolinar
Thanks! Someone in the chat this afternoon came up with the idea.
beanbong
between Mauricio Dubon/Alec Bohm batting cleanup and Kyle Teel hitting 2nd, banner day for curious lineup decisions
Chad Young
Teel has been hitting second against RHSP pretty consistently since coming off the IL. First few games he hit 9th, but moved up and stuck there the last three weeks or so.
lmb2020
That is some real-time engineering. Hell yeah Brother.
Klubot3000
Yeah, A+ work on the native chat interface, Sean!
Anon21
I'm tepidly rooting for the White Sox because I think it's silly for a .500 team to be in the playoffs.
springer
Is this the first time a playoff series has started with both teams doing a bullpen game?
Jon Becker
Believe it's the first time in a game, let alone to start a series
Chad Young
As a Guardians fan I am torn between wanting a .500 team out as quickly as possible and wanting these teams to have to play three 15-inning games so whoever shows up to Progressive Field this weekend is too exhausted to put up a fight.
drplantwrench
how many people convert catholicism if the white sox win the world series
Eric Longenhagen
I'll be back if they canonize Jerry Krause, patron saint of sauce on the front of your shirt
wiguy94
Really tough loss for the Phillies. Feel like the decision to use Duran the way they did today probably gave them the best chance at winning today but also if it backfired probably crushed their chances in the series.
Eric Longenhagen
I agreed with when they brought him in but not how long he was left in. Make a pitching change and let those shadows creep a little more.
Jon Becker
Mark Reynolds' name has now appeared on the broadcast, for anyone with an overly-specific drinking game
Eric Longenhagen
White Sox team makeup is so weird with the extreme K/Launch guys like 'Kami and Colson, and then the Meidroth/Antonacci line-movers.
Eric Longenhagen
I've been thinking about Jack Cust lately because of Andrew Fischer
Jon Becker
That's a dagger of a HBP, King had the right idea to keep spamming high fastballs but missed horribly
Chad Young
I just added Fischer in an Ottoneu league and I am not sure how to feel about that last post, Eric!
Eltneg
1-2 count on the guy who just broke the MLB record for Ks and you hit him in the back… Astros pitching staff not exactly covering themselves in glory so far
Eltneg
Sean, can you add a setting to show messages a couple minutes in the future so I can know when I should tune back into the game? Would be nice to get a heads-up when something exciting happens.
Jon Becker
We can start making stuff up, if you'd like
Eric Longenhagen
Lovely left-on-left knock for Sam Antagonacci
Jon Becker
This is getting close to "how many innings can Tatsuya Imai eat?" already
Chad Young
I wonder if this lineup construction of extremes allows the White Sox to punch above their weight? You are forcing pitchers to constantly change approaches.
Anon21
Astros fans shouldn't be booing their team…they're trying their best, you should just be happy they got here!
Klubot3000
The Ms fan in me is absolutely loving this
wiguy94
Never a good sign for the home team when the boo birds are out in the 2nd inning.
Eric Longenhagen
Two pitchers to get three outs so far for Houston
Denjix
Have we mentioned how bad the back half of the Astros bullpen is?
Jon Becker
Two mid-inning pitching changes already, gonna be a lot of Liberty Biberty ads today
Sonny L
Welp
Klubot3000
INSANE
Klubot3000
WOW
tjcook87
Ope
Sean Dolinar
very midwest of you!
angryyankeesfan
So much for 9 outs
Chad Young
3-0 is probably too soon, but at what point do the Astros just have to go to someone who can go a few innings and eat it? Winning today matters, but you need 2 of 3, and today doesn't have to be one of those two.
Jon Becker
(Do not post the meme at me) 6-7 runs maybe?
Eric Longenhagen
We're definitely going to see Lower Case Logan today
Chad Young
We might be at 6-7 runs in like three minutes.
thaalderman
People who haven’t been watching this White Sox team all year might not be aware that they’re very young and very dumb, and thus completely fearless.
Jorge Fabregas
Blubaugh was really bad in September! Really bad!
Nate
I would take several hundred Liberty Biberty ads over the anxiety-inducing ad for the whale movie
Denjix
When you see Imai warming up, that's the white flag
Eltneg
For all the talk of the postseason being random, the Astros definitely look like a .500 team with a bottom-10 pitching staff
Eric Longenhagen
This is Tom McCarthy's second Houston sports call in three days, he did Colts/Texans on Sunday.
HappyFunBall
Going down big early just means Yordan Alvarez has more opportunities to swing back into this. This is how Tatsuya Imai gets a playoff win
Jon Becker
And there is the in-zone whiff for Murakami
Chad Young
That was a huge, huge inning for Ullola. And only 9 pitches.
Eric Longenhagen
Did everyone get a Dutch Bros commercial, or just me?
Chad Young
YouTube TV showed me zebras. Just like…standing there.
Eric Longenhagen
Def a locally targeted ad then. Dutch Bros is our locally popular coffee/liquified sheet cake drive thru spot
Phillip Denny
4S/cutter/slider is a bit of a weird arsenal, especially from that slot, no?
Eric Longenhagen
Your four seamers from that slot tend to tail because of the spin axis created by the slot, but are still uphill because of how low your arm angle is. The cutter gives you something that can still ride uphill but move glove-side, or have closer to neutral movement.
Chad Young
Smith this year is 48% FS, 19% cutter, 30% slider. Exactly one pitcher went 100+ IP this year with 40%+ FS, 15%+ cutters, 25%+ sliders and that was Robert Gasser.
Eric Longenhagen
Another guy with a slot like that
Jon Becker
as if the playoffs weren't exciting enough, my smoke alarm is going off from a dead battery, be back in a few after I call maintenance
Chad Young
I am almost out of time here, folks. Wish I could stay longer but in about 15 or so, I have to get to a middle school soccer match. Astros-Sox will be fun, but need to prioritize the 6th grade Cardinals vs…..uh….I actually have no idea who they are playing against?
Ogbert
Speaking of excitement, just had a 4.3 earthquake up in the Puget Sound area a little under an hour ago.
Chad Young
My wife just asked me about this! We didn't notice it at all.
Eric Longenhagen
The Yodeler is carving
Ogbert
I felt it down in the south Sound, but just assumed it was Austin Riley's bat crack finally reaching us
Chad Young
Looks like it was centered in Kitsap, which isn't so far from me, but I missed it. You'd think with my midwest roots, I'd be panicked by any small movement.
Eric Longenhagen
This is also good, Espada is gonna come take him out too soon and Dave Chappelle is going to throw a fit about it.
beanbong
Seeing Taylor Trammell starting in a playoff game reminded me of old friend Kyle Lewis. Has anyone else won ROTY then been out of the league so soon?
Chad Young
Lewis going from a 128 wRC+ in his debut in 2019 to 127 in his rookie year in 2020, to 107 in 2021…and then 58 and 21 in '22 and '23 is just a wild fall.
Eric Longenhagen
Knees, man.
Chad Young
Though Luis Gil is working on that path after winning in 2024
Chad Young
Bob Hamelin won in 1994 and last appeared in MLB in 1998, so not too different. Something about those shortened seasons, I guess.
Anonymous Member #46
Angel Berroa
Chad Young
Berroa was still getting MLB PA as late as 2009. Only 55 of them but still.
Eric Longenhagen
He and Jason Jennings were the first names that came to mind for me but they both played like 7 years. Jose Fernandez is technically an answer, as well.
mlommler
I was never a Dutch Bros guy but Eric did make me feel a pang for when I lived in Flagstaff
Eric Longenhagen
I haven't tried it in 12 years living here. The Cartel in Tempe and Coffee 48 are my spots.
Eric Longenhagen
Pizzicletta is a thing to pine for
Chad Young
I thought of Jennings, as well, and was surprised he lasted as long as he did. The thing with Lewis is not just that he struggled, but he barely played. Jennings kept pitching (poorly; thanks Coors) for a while.
Chad Young
Montgomery had gone ice cold and getting hit with that pitch woke him up.
Jorge Fabregas
Colson Montgomery redemption after a dreadful September
Chad Young
The White Sox got so much less scary for a while there with Montgomery and Murakami not hitting. Munetaka seemed to be heating up again at the end of the year and if that gets Colson going, this is a different team.
Jon Becker
Stood on my kitchen table to pull out my smoke alarm (don't worry, my apartment has another one) and missed Colson's homer to do it. Never address any of your problems or you'll miss baseball, kids
thaalderman
Colson looks like a Roman emperor. He has a face you can picture on the side of a coin.
Chad Young
I have no idea what that means but I felt like it needed to be shared.
Jon Becker
Oh we have a shift challenge!
Chad Young
Altuve moved onto the dirt but you need to see it synced up to the pitch, right?
Eric Longenhagen
Oh man, was Altuve cavalier with a rule?
Chad Young
I don't see how this can get overturned
Jon Becker
He's absolutely on the grass there, I think, but can't overturn it
Jon Becker
I also don't know WHEN he was on the grass
Chad Young
that wide angle it is hard to see, but it looks like he moves after the windup and before the pitch and I have no idea what the rule is lol
Russell
Have any of you ever seen this?
Eric Longenhagen
(shakes head fervently)
CubsSoxTigers Fan
He looked to be on the grass on the radio.
Chad Young
I have seen a review for a fielder being too far up the middle, but not the grass.
Klubot3000
Yeah! Ms had a successful challenge of this earlier this year
Klubot3000
Have to be on the dirt when the pitch is thrown
Eltneg
White Sox def flagged Altuve putting his heels on the grass when watching film for this series, right?
Chad Young
so the key moment is when the pitch is released? if so, I think he was back on the dirt for that.
Jon Becker
I'm surprised more fielders don't start on the grass and sprint in as the pitch is being thrown to annoy the hitter
Jon Becker
Feels like motioning the defense is underutilized, and by underutilized I mean not at all
Chad Young
All the infielders should start together on 2B and when the pitcher comes set, they break
cjj8vf
Feels like the Sox could have found a more meaningful situation in which to make this particular challenge? Risk-reward doesn't seem quite worth potentially wasting a challenge and alerting Altuve to the fact that you're watching his feet
Jon Becker
This is where two challenges in a game really comes into play
Jon Becker
The odds that you burn two and really wish you had the third prior to extra innings have to be extremely low, I would think
Chad Young
I can see the argument that this was the wrong moment to use that intel, but maybe they wanted to do it early to get in his head? Have him focused on that aspect of his positioning instead of playing his position, which he is already bad at.
Chad Young
Alright, time for me to head out. Enjoy the rest of the game!
Eric Longenhagen
Bye Chad!
Jon Becker
Adios Chad!
thaalderman
The whole “limited manager challenges” thing is sorta fake, anyway right? I specifically remember at least one game this year where a manager just petitioned for two separate crew chief reviews that were instantly granted.
Meg Rowley
I've never seen a manager ask the crew chief to review something and them not look at, though it has probably happened. I also wish the umps would tell managers they take too long to ask for replay review. They take too long!
Shirtless George Brett
I kinda just assumed Altuve was still a decent 2B. I had no idea he was so bad (and has been for years).
Also, hi all, figured I'd hang out for a bit until I have a gamer to edit.
Jon Becker
Meg is here, time to be on your best behaviour
Russell
Thoughts on why they're using hicks so early?
Eric Longenhagen
I think they wanted him to face the righty-hitting chunk of the middle of the order regardless off the inning.
Jon Becker
I also don't believe in "so early" as a construct in the playoffs, really
Meg Rowley
Rather be "so early" than "too late," as it were.
shakersamman
I just wrote the sentence “What if the White Sox win the World Series” and my computer started humming in a high pitch register and I blacked out for 19 minutes. Has anyone had any experience with this
Eric Longenhagen
Sending the pope and william friedkin to your house for IT purposes.
Meg Rowley
Continues to mess me up to hear the pope speak in a Chicagoland accent.
Sonny L
“Ecclesiastical” in the deepest and most unforgivable Chicago accent might bring me back to the flock
hairygrim
Josh Hendrickson doesn't have a headshot on mlb.com.
Meg Rowley
Sometimes it takes them a minute to get the MiLB headshot over there when a guy is recently called up. You have to be in the majors for a while before they just merge the pages, I think.
Jon Becker
A lotta good opposite field hitting today, huh
shakersamman
brb submitting a script to SNL where the conclave happens in the bar from the Da Bears sketch
Eric Longenhagen
Texting Smigel. "What if the Archbishop of the Philadelphia Diocese is a tavern-style pizza?"
Eric Longenhagen
I'd have been tempted to hit Pham for Colson here
Eric Longenhagen
Gimme a ball in play, Acuna can play MIF rest of game
Jon Becker
Well, there's the ball in play
mlommler
What are the playoff team mascot rankings from "best" to "eldritch horror"?
Meg Rowley
The Phanatic is the best, the Swinging Friar and the Barrel Man are good (Bernie Brewer is fine), Clark the Cub should put on pants, and Blooper is evidence of the decline of civilization.
Eric Longenhagen
Ulamog would be a great mascot
Meg Rowley
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is actually just about Blooper.
Meg Rowley
We have forgotten how to write, because of Blooper. Only songs for us now.
Eric Longenhagen
That's right, he requires children slaughter a sheep so he can drink of its blood before he signs autographs for you, kid.
FGM
Our age of bloops is collapsing
Eric Longenhagen
"What if it's flesh colored, but has the texture of a t-shirt that has come into contact with velcro for 15 years?
lmb2020
Blooper is a bad name. No one cheers for a blooper. It isn't even the best word for an error. They should've name it Flub
Eric Longenhagen
They could have other mascots with names for balls in play. Screamer, Dribbler, Roller, Chopper. How is it not named Chopper?
Meg Rowley
The fleshy color is the biggest issue imo.
Klubot3000
A rebrand into the vibrant yellow of Acuña's arm guard would be fun
Meg Rowleyedited
Too Big Bird like. Though now he just looks like unwell Phanatic. Have the creative courage to differentiate yourself from your rival.
lmb2020
TBF I think anything "chop" related is a loaded issue for the braves. But I would agree that being flesh-colored is disgusting and against the truisms of mascotry
Meg Rowley
Honestly, I'm surprised that wasn't seen as a plus for them. Not like the team is bashful about it!
Klubot3000
Eric, who are the players you're most excited to get long looks at in the AFL?
Eric Longenhagen
Ah man, so many guys. All the Giants arms, the recently-injured guys (Aidan Miller and Sebastian Walcott) playing shortstop, Angiebel Gomez, Tai Peete, Bryce Rainer, Jarlin Susana…. it's a long list. I'll have a preview up Friday with a Board tab like last year's.
Meg Rowley
Well, sure glad I didn't put a bunch of Velázquez's crummy numbers in here to question this choice.
Eric Longenhagen
Nelly Velasquez two-run shot makes it a game again, Astros top of the order looming.
Jon Becker
We're suddenly in "figure out how the White Sox get through the game" mode even though they're still up three. Not sure if they want to use Newcomb past Alvarez — maybe Taylor for the next eight hitters and then give it to Hudson?
Klubot3000
I'm interested in Wyatt Sanford's transformation and Welbyn Francisca. Never thought Francisca would have anything close to the kind of game power he showed this year
Eric Longenhagen
Sanford I think has to do with equipment change. Francisca idk yet. It's funny to look at bat size/shape/brand on old film now to see if that's all that's changed.
Jon Becker
Antonacci HBP, drink
Eric Longenhagen
as you wish (lime polar seltzer)
Eric Longenhagen
Those two double plays feel like a huge deal if only because of how deep they helped Hendrickson to go
"“It’s kind of been a thing growing up,” VanWey said. “Every time like in college or the minor leagues, it’s been pronounced ‘VanWay’ or it’s spelled different with a space and I’ve just kind of like not corrected anybody but now my mom (Brittany) hears it and she’s the biggest one (saying) ‘It’s VanWey, it’s a capital W and there’s no space.’ It’s just kind of been a mess sometimes.”
The opportunity to clean up that mess came a couple months ago. During spring training, Astros clubhouse personnel inquired if VanWey wanted his jersey to match the correct spelling of his Dutch surname, as opposed to the all-caps format for the vast majority of names on the backs of MLB jerseys. And unlike last year’s new Nike-designed uniforms that were roundly criticized, in part for names and numbers that were too small, VanWey’s name can be easily seen."
Jon Becker
By this logic, everyone's all-caps jersey are misspelled!
Meg Rowley
Right. I totally get wanting it to be correct on the roster and your player page, but it's not misspelling it; there isn't an extra letter in there!
Klubot3000
I dunno, would be writing Me g misspelling something? I think it would, no?
Meg Rowley
Adding a space where there isn't one, sure. But they aren't doing that.
eandy
Is Playoff WAR ever going to be a thing?
Eric Longenhagen
There are some details particular to the way WAR is calc'd that make it impossible. What constitutes replacement level for the playoffs? Also, there are only so many shares of wins that go around during the regular season but it's a pretty set, big number of games and everyone plays the same, and not a knockout style ladder. WAR is zero sum, it's not like "He went 2-for-4 with a walk and a double, that's .7 WAR", the context of the rest of the league sets baselines and they matter.
Jon Becker
I get the pronunciation is harder to nail when there's caps in the middle and it's harder to parse VANWEY than VanWey but… how much harder?
Meg Rowley
Sean being careful there, wanted to make sure that when it comes to his pitches, Yordan couldn't Newcomb
Jon Becker
Well this is not Grant Taylor in this spot, it's David Sandlin time
Benny The Jet
If each unnecessary capitalization is a spelling error by his logic, VANWEY would technically be MORE correct than ALTUVE
wiguy94
Is there anywhere you can see cWPA on Fangraphs?
Meg Rowley
Unfortunately no.
Eric Longenhagen
Six pitches, man. Things have really stacked nicely for Venable so far today.
Phil
Sorry for jumping ahead to the next game, but any thoughts about Crochet? Would you put a guy who hasn't pitched to an actual major league baseball player in months into a true high-leverage situation, or is he more for early-starter-pull opportunities?
Eric Longenhagen
Remember how that guy debuted. If he looks good during Live BPs or whatever setting, I'd feel comfortable with it. You're trying to *win* the damn thing, and having Crochet get rolling and being mostly himself raises the ceiling on your squad. I'm pro Musgrove, too.
Meg Rowley
Bloop bloop bloop.
Jon Becker
A rare bunt that I really don't mind there, Peters isn't good against lefties. Though I'd have considered just hitting Doyle there instead
Eric Martell
Did Meg get replaced by a bot?
Eric Longenhagen
No, I think when you're merged with technology, in this case the electronic pages of fangraphs.com, you're technically a cyborg.
Jon Becker
Oh goodness
Jon Becker
This inning is not going to make it on any fielding or baserunning highlight reels
Meg Rowley
Want to keep Peters' glove, I'd imagine? (re: not pinch-hitting with Doyle)
Jon Becker
That's a good point, Doyle probably comes in defensively for Antonacci's spot and not Peters'
fincampbell05
Contrary to the broadcast's contention, I doubt that Tristan Peters *wants* to bunt it *directly* to Isaac Paredes.
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, you definitely want the bunt to go toward third base to force the third baseman (who'd otherwise be able to cover third and tag the runner) to come in and be the one who fields the baseball. But you don't want to *try* to make it a room service play for Isaac.
Benny The Jet
This games very existence should be embarrassing to the Mariners/Tigers/Jays
Meg Rowley
Really terrible trio of whiffs there for sure.
Eric Longenhagen
Man, those teams are so talented. This year's AL was like last year's AFC.
Meg Rowley
These double plays are brutal, man.
Eric Longenhagen
Yo, we still have two more games to watch after this. This rules.
Meg Rowley
October is busy, and stressful, and really the freakin' best.
Jon Becker
And it's not even October yet!
Eric Longenhagen
Putting Aces/Fever on the JV TV (sorry hockey, see you tomorrow)
Eric Longenhagen
How crowded do the bases need to be before Taylor comes in?
Jon Becker
I'd think one more runner
thaalderman
One more baserunner. Venable is extremely quick on the Grant Taylor trigger finger.
Meg Rowley
Would be hilarious to show up to the big league clubhouse with a giant fish.
Meg Rowley
Apologies if this was talked about earlier in the chat, but I really like this booth format for the WC round.
Jon Becker
I love the four-person crew, they've really made it work in both games so far
Jon Becker
I get that you'd rather regret bringing Taylor in too early than too late but this feels a liiiiiiittle like over-managing to me
Meg Rowley
It's just really nice to have the local booth represented as a complement to the national guys.
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah I think this would be Brazoban for me with Taylor lined up more squarely to face the top of the lineup. I imagine Grant will go 1.2
Benny The Jet
Venable must've not watched the Phillies today
Jon Becker
Not really comparable imo, Taylor has gone multiple innings a ton and is used to the up-downs. Duran is a one-inning guy (and as I said during that game, bringing Duran in then was correct to me)
Robert Myroon
Hot take: Pitchers who have been warming in the bullpen and enter mid-inning don't get any warm up pitches on the mound. Would massively speed up pace of play in the playoffs.
Eric Longenhagen
Meh, some of us want time to get up and stare into the fridge.
Meg Rowley
Yeah, I didn't mind that choice at all (Duran in when he was). Maybe you don't like leaving him in that long, but he hadn't thrown that many pitches, and I get thinking the rest of the group is shaky.
wiguy94
Is it normal for playoff teams to use their highest leverage guys while losing by 4?
Meg Rowley
It's just Hader, Imai, Brown, Lambert and Wesneski left, right?
EccentricChemist
What does Murakami have to do next year to be more like the 1st half player he was versus the 2nd half player? He seemed to go from three true outcomes to only two.
Jon Becker
His swing tendencies went in the wrong direction. Was taking more pitches in the heart of the zone, chasing a little more
Meg Rowleyedited
"Bounced one off his anatomy" is a hell of a phrase.
Benny The Jet
If it bruises he'll have a Blubaugh
Eric Longenhagen
If we can have commercials about shaving your balls we can just say he took a pitch to the scrotum, it's ok
New Brit Fan
Has anyone done a study of what LI justifies bringing in a high-leverage arm in game 1 of a three game series, five game series, seven game series etc.?
Eric Longenhagen
Not that I can recall, it's a good idea.
angryyankeesfan
I don't remember the exact number, but in the postseason since 1990 there has only been one comeback down 3 or more runs in the ninth.
Eric Longenhagen
I agree with the general sentiment that Abreu's usage will be likely be frivolous. Though it feels less so now than when I began typing this sentence before Yordan's single.
Jon Becker
Small sample but players have been really locked in on not making silly challenges in these first couple games
Meg Rowley
Agreed, very discerning. I wonder with a pitch like that, how much is him going off game state, and how much is him really thinking it's a strike.
Jon Becker
Another good one!
Davy Andrews
Hello, baseball people!
Eric Longenhagen
Yoooooo
Meg Rowley
Hi Davy!
Jon Becker
Hi Davy!
Davy Andrews
So many friends! How has everyone enjoyed the baseball today?
Jon Becker
Davy, my eyes are glazing over
Davy Andrews
I can't believe we're not even halfway done.
Klubot3000
It has been fantastic! Though really hope the Astros don't make this interesting
Eric Longenhagen
Now I do think you're at risk of falling prey to what Donny Baseball did earlier.
Meg Rowley
He sure looked off the bag…
Jon Becker
I think Murakami had the bag but I don't think enough to overturn there
Meg Rowley
The dirt on the bag and the dirt on his cleats make it hard to tell
Ben Schneider
Do you think the foot is on?
Davy Andrews
My gut says yes, but we'll find out soon! And if we don't find out conclusively, maybe I will write an article Zaprudering it like I did last year.
Davy Andrews
Well, my gut is 0-1 on the night. And these Pumpkin Spice Milanos I bought as a chat snack are very likely to run the score up even higher.
MattStats5
Can't overturn that.
Meg Rowley
Yeah, Altuve was bookin' it.
Jon Becker
I'm fine with Taylor staying in here but you can't potentially burn his availability for tomorrow by keeping him in for the ninth
Meg Rowley
Yeah, he's already at 30…
springer
How do the Astros approach tomorrow having already used 7 pitchers tonight?
Jon Becker
I don't think it'll be that hard. Hope Brown gets you pretty deep, get it to Hader with Abreu somewhere in the middle and Lambert probably available
Ben Schneider
That curveball fooled everyone
MattStats5
Orioles fan here hoping for a BoSox series win….
Davy Andrews
I believe the official position here is Team Asteroid.
MattStats5
Nasty curve
Frank Jones
Do people generally agree or disagree with the thought that replay review shouldn't be affected by the call on the field?
Meg Rowley
I don't love the standard as is; it's overly deferential to the call on the field imo.
Davy Andrews
I wrote a whole article arguing that they should ignore the call on the field, so I've got to be on that team too.
Meg Rowley
I understand deferring if you think it's a 50/50 call, so maybe it just ends up in the same place, but I wonder what the overturn rate would be if there was a way to obscure what the call on the field was.
Eric Longenhagen
I think that's true for bangbang plays at the bases where the tie is supposed to go to the runner, but now it's "the tie goes to the call on the field"
Davy Andrews
100%.
Paul Sporer
Hey y'all!
Davy Andrews
Paul!
Jon Becker
[Cheers voice] Paul!
Davy Andrews
This guy gets it.
mockcarr
Have the spikes gotten shorter?
Davy Andrews
Publishing this just because this is not something I have ever even thought about. Anybody?
Jon Becker
First basemen should wear clown shoes for maximum bag-covering ability
Paul Sporer
LOL amazing idea, Jon!
wiguy94
Abreu was one thing but using Hader down 3 runs in the 9th inning when to advance you're going to have to win games 2 and 3. I am perplexed.
Paul Sporer
Yeah, I get wanting to hold it at 3 but it's not a choice I love!
MattStats5
Agree…using Hader here isn't smart, in my opinion. Save the gas for elimination game.
angryyankeesfan
As I mentioned earlier, ninth inning comebacks down 3 in the playoffs are quite rare. I probably would've just used Imai.
Jon Becker
Taylor is coming back out for the ninth, not a fan
Eric Longenhagen
Hey Paul!
Eric Longenhagenedited
Yeah, I'm also not super stoked on 40-plus pitch Taylor usage here
Meg Rowley
I am going to dip now that the rest of the gang's here – catch you all later!
Benny The Jet
Grant Taylor 7 out save?
Paul Sporer
I'm OK bringing him out for the 9th and seeing where it goes. He's at 36 pitches and has only eclipsed that total thrice this year, but I'm of the mind that the playoffs is where you push things like that. And obviously taking game 1 is so massive for them.
Davy Andrews
Bye, Meg!
Paul Sporer
Bye Meg!! Hi Eric!!
Jon Becker
Playoffs are a different animal, yada yada, but why are you rostering other pitchers if there aren't other guys you can trust up three runs against 6-7-8
Paul Sporer
I think 6-7-8 is a particularly strong point in not bringing him out, well said.
Paul Sporer
is someone at least up in case things get hot?
Jon Becker
There was stretching last inning but I haven't seen anyone up this inning, no
Jon Becker
And by "seen" I mean "on television"
Paul Sporer
Leadoff BB is a total nightmare, great take by Walk
Rich Hill's Fastball
I have no team rooting interest here, but I must admit that I am cheering very hard for Tolle to do well.
Paul Sporer
Same! Fully in the bag for Tolle and as such, behind the Sox a bit since my Tigers gagged the season
springer
Has there been research on the importance of playoff experience for managers? Venable has been a coach for a little while but managing is obviously different
Davy Andrews
I'm not aware of it, but I can't imagine there's much there.
Jon Becker
Oh yeah, Red Sox/Yankees has started, as we are over three hours here
bosoxforlife
There was a lot of discussion during the Braves-Phillies game about whether Duran would try to go three. Taylor went 2+ four times this year and was not scored upon. He is so much the best they have that he deserves to try.
Jon Becker
For me it's less about concern that he'd falter this inning (and it looks like he's not!) and more about impacting availability/sharpness tomorrow and Thursday
Davy Andrews
Hey, bosoxforlife is here. Now it's a chat.
Benny The Jet
Schlittler giving me immediate Verlander nostalgia by starting off 101 then getting the K with a 12-6
Paul Sporer
Nasty punchies there by Taylor
MattStats5
Taylor at 44 pitches and counting. Ooof
Paul Sporer
He's obv done for the series after this I'd imagine. Seems Venable felt locking game 1 (if he gets this last out) was worth more than a potential 2nd appearance
Paul Sporer
Oh thank goodness Ctrl+Enter sends msgs, I thought I was going to have mouse it every time, lol
Jon Becker
I have no idea what Venable thought he saw there
Paul Sporer
What was Venable on about?
Paul Sporer
Can't challenge a check swing
wiguy94
Should you be able to give a manager a warning for blatant stalling like this to get your pitcher a bit of a breather?
Paul Sporer
Ya that might be what it was bc I saw nothing to go out there for
Jon Becker
54 pitches for Taylor, gutsy
Paul Sporer
Boom! Got it!
Eric Longenhagen
Hey, they won
MattStats5
Cant disagree with that thinking…Game 1 win sets up well for next two. But geesh!!!!
Jon Becker
And with that I'm out of here, enjoy the last two games everyone!
thaalderman
In case you’re wondering how the White Sox won 84 games with 1.5 starting pitchers, Grant Taylor is how.
Paul Sporer
Benetti on the Yanks gm, woo I can pretend my stupid Tigers are still alive in spirit!
Davy Andrews
Bye, Jon!
Paul Sporer
Peace, Jon!
springer
Could the Marlins' new strategy of using starters' bullpen day as relievers catch on more in the playoffs? Has been done before but more out of need than as a typical plan
Davy Andrews
I suspect that even if this were to catch on for awhile, at some point a prominent pitcher would get hurt doing this and everyone would back off.
Davy Andrews
Who's ready for the Mass Pike?
Paul Sporer
Here comes baseball's Ron Swanson!
Paul Sporer
Hey, Jason took my line!!
Davy Andrews
Weird, I was just about to call it a slobberknocker. Maybe he hacked us.
Paul Sporer
Ya the bullpen day being in-game is more of a playoff thing. Wonder if those 3 Sandy SVs won anybody their fantasy league
Eric Longenhagen
Ok fam, I need to cook dinner and do some work with Brendan. There is a non-zero chance Brendan and I pop in to chat during Cubs/Padres depending on how much progress we make on the other stuff. See ya, enjoy this sensational pitching matchup.
Davy Andrews
Bye, Eric! See you later, hopefully. Also, what's for dinner?
Paul Sporer
Peace, Eric!!
Davy Andrews
What a whippy swing from Rice. I love it.
Ben Schneider
They'll need Burke to pitch pretty deep
Paul Sporer
Yeah he can't lay an egg like we saw a few times down the stretch, though mostly in August to be fair
Davy Andrews
Just testing this because I'm not really seeing questions come in.
Paul Sporer
B-
Davy Andrews
It works!
drplantwrench
no questions because no one cares about yankees/red sox
Paul Sporer
LOL i was going to joke that it's 2 small fanbases
Snerd
No questions because Tolle/Schlittler is a masterclass that requires no commentary
bosoxforlife
Using starters on their throw days was common when I was falling in love with baseball. Allie Reynolds was a great pitcher who, in 1952, at the age of 35 threw 24 CG's and had 6 saves. At 37 he started 15 times, finished 23 and had13 saves
springer
How do you expect Crochet to be used in this series? Closer or fireman?
Paul Sporer
Taylor-esque, so fireman essentially
small e
would like to nominate nick sogard for BallplayerTM of the year. feels like every sentence red sox media say about him is of that tenor
lzfreak
Professional at bat from Rutschman
Davy Andrews
I know we're a full inning late, but this is true.
bosoxforlife
The back end of the Red Sox bullpen needs no help. Crochet is not replacing Whitlock or Chapman.
drplantwrench
i nominate jeremiah jackson as the ballplayer of the year
bosoxforlife
Watching Sogard play makes me wonder where Mead is going to play next year.
Ben Schneider
We're all expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Any predictions for who gets the big hit?
Davy Andrews
Let's open this one up to the group. I'll say Lombard.
Paul Sporer
Wilyer bomb
drplantwrench
im predicting abreu
Davy Andrews
I like it.
angryyankeesfan
If this were on Apple TV I'd say Goldschmidt. The Yankees had 2 games on Apple where the Yankees won 1-0 on a Goldy solo shot
mookiemonstah
I’m thinking Durbin is due
Davy Andrews
Ain't that the truth.
drplantwrench
paul sorer and dr plantwrench have not been seen in the same room
aydubby
Rosario
Phil
Sogard beats out an infield hit with bases loaded and two outs to win the game.
bosoxforlife
I will vote for Abreu popping one into the short porch.
Samuel Clemens
Roman Anthony 3 run bomb in seventh inning
springtraneing
stanton, while costas has his 30-210 seconds on prime-time
Phil
Why is Eaton on the roster? So you can pinch-hit Jones for Duran and then put in Eaton to finish the game defensively? Only thing I can think of. Maybe pinch-run for Rutschman, but that's risky.
Davy Andrews
Nate Eaton? The guy who batted .400 in the postseason last year?
Ben Schneider
I think Garcia comes through late
mockcarr
Lotsa curveballs
small e
jahmai jones when he pinch hits in the 8th
Paul Sporer
Yaaaa this has all the makings of a 1-0, 2-1 type game
angryyankeesfan
I've been saying this series is first to 3 runs
Paul Sporer
Yep, that feels right!
Paul Sporer
Ooh my pizza's here, brb!
jtrichey
I can't stop thinking about that Braves challenge of Albies being hit by a pitch right before the Riley HR. I think it is SOOO stupid. I also said it at the time to be clear. Do they really want Albies facing Duran with 2 strikes to finish that at bat instead of putting him on base? I just don't get it.
Davy Andrews
I was cleaning up baby barf when this happened.
Paul Sporer
Ya it'll be forgotten since Riley went boomtown
Davy Andrews
Lombard making me look smart. What a rocket.
drplantwrench
they werent challenging for albies, they were icing duran
angryyankeesfan
I believe it was full count for Albies so it would've been a walk. The difference is that Harris would be on 3rd
bosoxforlife
The reason the Braves challenged was that Realmuto did not chase the ball and the Braves would have had a man on 3rd.
jtrichey
I'm sure it has been discussed several times but man, a lot of managers hitting a panic button on day 1 when they are going to need 13 wins to make it through. Duran might have gone 3. Grant Taylor throws over 50 pitches. Less egregious but more idiotic – Josh Hader pitches the 9th down by 3 when they are going to need 2 more wins in the next 2 days? I get the "you have to win the game in front of you" theory, but you really do need to win more than 1 game here.
Paul Sporer
The value of winning game 1 is massive, but I'm w/you that these weren't all great moves. I'm fine pushing Duran for more than 1, but 3 seems crazy. Hader one made ZERO sense to me. Taylor I'm prob the most on board with of the 3 given how frequently they've pushed him >1 IP (though only 3 times more than the 36 pitches he had after 8).
Paul Sporer
My friend shared a stat w/me that 15 of 16 gm 1 winners have won the 3-gm set, so I get pushing, but there can be overkill (like I said, I wasn't seeing the vision on Hader at all).
mockcarr
Is that respect for Rafaela or a bad read? Conservative
Davy Andrews
I mean, Girardi had a much better view of the play than we did, but I certainly understand having your first instinct be that anything to center is catchable for him.
bosoxforlife
Rutschman had to challenge that!!
Davy Andrews
Would've been a big swing.
drplantwrench
suddenly feels like this game might be 6-4 instead of 1-0
Paul Sporer
it would be classic baseball for the game that screams 1-0 to be a high scoring affair
beanbong
don't care for either teams here so I'm mostly just pulling for funniest possible outcome. Something like a Volpe or Chisholm walkoff HR or Duran go ahead triple
Davy Andrews
Volpe being the hero would be very funny.
drplantwrench
pizza toppings??!
Paul Sporer
Just went w/Italian Sausage on this one
angryyankeesfan
Wells off the lefty
Jack Dorfman
career .188 off lefties…
farrell823
Abreu 28 DRS but 2 OAA/4 FRV. Never seen such a great discrepancy like that
Paul Sporer
Dang that is a massive one!!! I can't recall seeing a discrepancy that large, either
Davy Andrews
He makes a lot of high effort plays that might not necessarily impress a computer.
Joey Caltrain
"Walpole, Massachusetts has got to be pretty torn right now"… no it's not it's definitely rooting against Cam Schlittler
Joey Caltrain
How different will the Yankees lineup be tomorrow night vs. a righty?
Paul Sporer
Quite a bit I'd presume. Jazz, Garcia, McMahon in
Snerd
Schlittler has his S-tier curveball today my god
Davy Andrews
Wow, back to back swords for Anthony.
Jack Dorfman
Nothing prettier than a curveball then 99 top of the zone
small e
At least the Red Sox won't be no-hit… yes, I'm coping…
Paul Sporer
🫂
bosoxforlife
Hey small e, that's how I feel too.
beanbong
Rizzo admitting that seeing social media comments can affect a major league player's mindset is not doing the guys on the field any favors
Paul Sporer
I think everyone kinda already knows that, though. Some channel it out, but it's pretty rare. And I find the more a celeb/athlete swears they don't check the comments, the more they're deep into them (see also: Swift, Taylor)
Davy Andrews
Seriously, Rob Friedman must be so psyched with all these checked swing strikeouts.
Maureen McCord
tbh I'm just watching this game for Benetti's commentary
Davy Andrews
I really enjoyed how flatly he delivered that last ad read.
Paul Sporer
me from August on as a Tigers fan……
bosoxforlife
The checked swing is a situation (problem) that baseball has to get a hold of. What is and what isn't is a total mystery and every umpire is different.
Davy Andrews
I'm not sure that I agree, but Statcast is on it.
Paul Sporer
Already something implemented in the minors and headed MLB in the future, yeah?
Davy Andrews
Yup. The thing I'm most excited about is that I think the system is going to take us back to a time when the bar for a swing was a lot higher.
Paul Sporer
I love watching old highlights and seeing check swings from back then. They'd make folks today apoplectic with some that weren't called swings
mookiemonstah
The only thing Schlittler hasn’t done well is tuck that stray hair away
Paul Sporer
Willson: Frozen pizza
Joey Caltrain
Oof that called strikeout
Paul Sporer
Didn't think it was a K?
Ben Schneider
Where did he think the edge was?
Paul Sporer
or critiquing Willson for taking it?
Snerd
Lol batflipping a punchout looking down the dick
Paul Sporer
Cam dialed!
Joey Caltrain
Willson's take was funny, yeah
Paul Sporer
Ya I lowkey realized that *as* I was sending my first response, my b
bosoxforlife
The hitters need every bit of help they can get in today's game. Anything that can diminish the number of strikeouts and get more balls in play is a positive and the mound is not going to be moved back.
Paul Sporer
Ya I'm a giant pitching nerd, but they have way too large an advantage. I'd like to see more balanced brought back to the hitters.
Paul Sporer
Maybe lower the mound some if we're not gonna move it back?
Jack Dorfman
I love the looping curves away to righties from Tolle
Davy Andrews
Hear me out: Make the ball heavier.
Joey Caltrain
RE: Schlittler's appearance, someone also needs to get that guy some chapstick. Those lips look dry.
Paul Sporer
I can help with that! (Anyone who knows me IRL knows I've always got my chapstick holstered… can't stand dry lips)
Davy Andrews
I too always have chapstick in my pocket.
Ben Schneider
Even though pitchers have a clear advantage, offense isn't down much. League OPS this year was .719, close to recent seasons
Paul Sporer
It's more the "how", though. Just too many Ks. I don't find the 3 true outcomes game terribly compelling. The pitch clock and SB changes have helped pace and excitement, but I'd still like to see more
Davy Andrews
Yup. Balls in play. I just want to see more web gems.
Paul Sporer
Agreed! We know players get better, faster, stronger, let them flex the defensive prowess more!!!
angryyankeesfan
Awesome challenge for Rosario
Sæder
ABS is incredible
Davy Andrews
Thanks T-Mobile.
farrell823
Postseason ABS is electric. Everybody looks so nervous when they use it
Paul Sporer
While 2011-now isn't too disparate, we're a good bit away from the early 2000s: .329 wOBA 2000-10 | .315 since
Paul Sporer
And yes, as someone who loved the ABS from day-1, I was really excited for it in the playoffs as it was just going to dial the intensity up 10-fold
beanbong
now that we've got bat tracking data, has anyone done a study on what changing the criteria for a check swing would do to K%? The effect would probably be muted somewhat as hitters adjusted to how far they could go, but would be interested to see what the effect might actually be. If we knew it could knock K% back below 20% or something, could become more compelling
Davy Andrews
I assume this is part of the calculus in the minor league testing.
Paul Sporer
That foul out is giganticcccc
Jack Dorfman
Got to get Tolle into the 5th I think…
Paul Sporer
Groundball here would be massive. K more likely v. Jones, of course
Paul Sporer
OR THATTTT!!!
Phil
Durbin!
Davy Andrews
No spoilers!
Davy Andrews
Stupid Roku delays.
small e
DURBINATOR
Paul Sporer
Sorry I'm streaming so I assumed I'm way behind. I'll wait a few beats on big plays
Paul Sporer
That inning was a microcosm of Durbin's season – terrible start, electric finish
Davy Andrews
No, no, don't worry about it.
Paul Sporer
My sister still has cable so she's always a play, play-and-a-half (or multiple pitches in baseball terms) ahead of me
Yer Main Guy
I'm in Walpole. Can't speak for everyone but most people I've met are proud of Cam & rooting for the Red Sox here.
Davy Andrews
Hey, it's mailbag my pen pal!
Paul Sporer
Did that McDonald's ad just acknowledge how spicy their Sprite is??? #iykyk
Davy Andrews
What?!
Ben Schneider
Leave it up to the Yankees to make a baserunning mistake
Joey Caltrain
I sometimes watch Giants games on a Zoom call with a friend whose broadcast is maybe 20 seconds ahead of me. If I step away from the computer for a bit his reaction can get me back to the screen in time to see a fun play.
Yer Main Guy
Hi Davy
Davy Andrews
I asked about pitcher wRC+. No dice.
Paul Sporer
We takin Tolle out at 75 pitches?
angryyankeesfan
We will not lose on a Rosario error
Paul Sporer
Is the music still playing on the broadcast for anyone else?? This is annoying af
lou-harrison-bader
This music is so annoying
Davy Andrews
Yeah, what is happening here?
Jack Dorfman
Director is asleep at the wheel
Paul Sporer
Only a playoff game b/w 2 of the most famous teams in the sport….
Matthew Spence
I’m so glad you all also hear the music.
Snerd
NBC not realize the intro music is still playing??
Davy Andrews
This is a long time for it to be going on.
Jack Dorfman
Someone in the truck couldn't find the off button
Paul Sporer
like SOOO long
Joey Caltrain
Music just finally finished for me
Paul Sporer
Finallyyyy
Sæder
gotta get your money's worth out of such a long track!
nuttingtolose
Yes! Thought I was going crazy
Paul Sporer
Someone spilled their Diet Coke on the button
Nate
Glad to know the music isn't just me
lzfreak
I'm not hearing the music… am I going crazy?
Davy Andrews
Yes.
Paul Sporer
It was going for a good 2 batters into the inning
Paul Sporer
They paid for Epidemic Sound and they're gonna get their use out of it!
Joey Caltrain
It was a solid soundtrack behind the footage of the double play and then it just kept going like the highlight reel was still playing
Jack Dorfman
Faded it out quickly that time
beanbong
according to MLB the automatic check swing system decreased K% by 3% in the AFL and FSL. The 45 degree rule probably gets dialed back a little so maybe a 1.5-2% cut?
Davy Andrews
Great info.
Davy Andrews
I would love to write about that, but I wouldn't want to get the sound person in trouble. Stuff happens.
Paul Sporer
I'm sure Twitter is goin bananas over it lol
Davy Andrews
Nah, I heard things are normal over there.
Paul Sporer
lol always so chill and neat and cool
Davy Andrews
Man, it just looks impossible not to chase anything from Schlittler.
Davy Andrews
Sorry, that was an ugly sentence.
Davy Andrews
There you go. SUCCESSFUL check swing.
Davy Andrews
That's progress.
Phil
The Red Sox radio broadcast, at least over MLB.tv, is suddenly all weird–staticky and echoey at once. There seems to be a communications incompetence epidemic.
lzfreak
Red Sox are doing a solid job of running up the pitch count on Schlittler. Could loom large if he can't go 6.
Ben Schneider
Commentators are right in this case. Duran has to steal to scratch across a run
Davy Andrews
Hiiiiigh stakes move.
Paul Sporer
Duran has the skillset to erase the ugliness of his regular season with a big post
Paul Sporer
Similar to Riley with his HR today
Joey Caltrain
Do you think Judge, Stanton, and Spencer Jones will ever all be healthy at the same time? That's a looot of height.
Davy Andrews
That's a tall order.
mockcarr
I am happy to not have audio at the moment
Paul Sporer
I see what you did there and I approve, Davy
Jack Dorfman
Nice
Paul Sporer
every time they do this ad for The Voice, i think they're randomly talking about Riley Greene, especially when Benetti reads 'em
Davy Andrews
Can we talk about the T-Mobile ad where they say that T-Mobile designed the ABS system? What the absolute what is that?
Paul Sporer
They designed the baseball on *annnd* and anti-locking braking systems. T-Mobile out here doin big things, who knew?!
bosoxforlife
NESN was unwatchable for much of the season because of technical glitches. Tt was stunning that the station could not smooth out the transmission as the season went along.
mockcarr
Wells’ swing is its own VH1 pop up video
Davy Andrews
Oh man, can still hear that sound effect.
Paul Sporer
Great effort, Tolle!!! ❤️
Jack Dorfman
spidey senses telling me they should've left in tolle
Davy Andrews
Dude, you're going to blow your cover.
Davy Andrews
The Mass Pike was cruising.
mockcarr
I feel like we should be counting Tolle hugs
Paul Sporer
Erik Miller had tamped down his BB% issues right before the trade and immediately after (7% BB in Aug) but they came roaring back in September w/a nasty 23% BB
bosoxforlife
Tolle was good but Schlittler is from another universe, or least from Mars.
Jack Dorfman
don't like bringing in a lefty reliever for a lefty starter
Jack Dorfman
what planet were the Monstars from?
Paul Sporer
Only 2 BB-free outings in 8 Sept. app. for Miller
Jack Dorfman
yep…
Paul Sporer
Ruh roh….
Paul Sporer
BEN AROZ!!!!
Snerd
Jack instantly proven right
Davy Andrews
You might have been on to something, Jack.
bosoxforlife
Let's give a shout out to Jack Dorfman.
Paul Sporer
Jack with the immediate dub
Jack Dorfman
Sorry to the Sox fans
MyBloodyBallantine
This is an insurmountable lead for the non-July Red Sox
Joey Caltrain
I love the guy behind home plate in a Marlins jersey
Jack Dorfman
I just had flashbacks to Rich Hill getting pulled for Scott Alexander in 2018…
Paul Sporer
Marlins Man is… somethin
Davy Andrews
I'm not sure lovable is one of them.
mockcarr
There’s nothing less satisfying than knowing your team is doing something stupid
drplantwrench
only 8 more runs until 6-4
Paul Sporer
Anyone watch The Paper? I've seen 98437932748 ads for it today, but never seen an ep
Joey Caltrain
Oh so that's THE Marlins Man? Wasn't sure.
Davy Andrews
I watched the first episode or two. It was bad.
Ben Schneider
I watched part of the first season. Prett yfunny but not super funny
Paul Sporer
He's better than Hample, but it's a vomit v. poop type sitch
Joe Orrico
The Schlittler/Yankees hate watch has been quite unsuccessful thus far
Paul Sporer
Yaaaa, tough for a Jays fan
mockcarr
The Marlins Man needs to give his seat to front row Amy
Paul Sporer
The queen!
cyanocitta
The Paper feels like a discount version of The Office. To me, it was somewhat worth watching, but the redundant advertisements are certainly offputting
Paul Sporer
Yeah hard not to see it that way
Davy Andrews
Yeah, the ads are NOT doing what you want for that kind of show.
Justin Mason
The whole season was tough for a Jays fan
Paul Sporer
How are Buster and college coach goin?
Davy Andrews
Of The Paper?
bosoxforlife
It hurts to think that Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice both grew up in Massachusetts and went to college in New England while the Red Sox were drafting stiffs from Cailfornia and other distant places.
Paul Sporer
And on cue they twist the knife on y'all
Joe Orrico
-Giants fan making comments
cyanocitta
The advanced stats seemed to favor Cease until the last month. Schneider burned out his arm with that load
Seuss2004
Oooooh where did Roman go
mockcarr
The 4seamer is running too much for this to be easy
Ben Schneider
Why is Monasterio in? Did Tracy think the Yanks were changing pitchers?
Davy Andrews
The broadcast is speculating that maybe Anthony's hand isn't feeling great.
Davy Andrews
Amazing. Monasterio goes down exactly like Anthony did both times.
bosoxforlife
Your hand wouldn't feel too good if Schlittler was on the mound.
Paul Sporer
Place will explode with a punchie here
mockcarr
Have to admit I’m a fan of just calling every check swing a strike, but I would like a foul bunt after two strikes to not be a K
Davy Andrews
I'd go the other way. Every check swing is a take.
Paul Sporer
This would be my lean. I want fewer Ks!
MyBloodyBallantine
I’m starting to get Grady Sizemore flashbacks with Roman Anthony
Paul Sporer
Without the elite seasons, though… at least not yet
Davy Andrews
It feels really early for that to me.
Paul Sporer
Cam too lit!
lzfreak
Eh Schlittler was better last year in this series
Davy Andrews
Yeah, I liked it when he gave up fewer than zero runs.
Paul Sporer
Tough crowd!
angryyankeesfan
I had been worried at times that the Red Sox seeing Cam Schlittler so much this year (this is his 5th start against them) would negatively impact him, but it has not.
Davy Andrews
Yeah, I've seen the sun five days in a row. It's not bright anymore and I can stare right at it.
bosoxforlife
Back in the old days there would have been no chance that Schlittler wouldn't be allowed to go as far as he wanted which, if he throws like tonight, would be a CG.
Paul Sporer
He also wouldn't have drained his tank in 6 nor would he have faced 9 guys who can go bridge. Just a much different game. If they were trained to 8-9 consistently, they'd be able to, but they're told go full bore from pitch 1
cyanocitta
Back in the old days, throwing high-90s for close to 90% of your pitches would be less common, however
Davy Andrews
Maybe they should check and see if Schlittler can hit too.
Seuss2004
Fun Ben Rice fact: He just had the best season for a position player from Dartmouth since Red Rolfe, pre-WWII. 1) Red Rolfe was also a Yankee, and 2) Dartmouth baseball plays at Red Rolfe field.
Davy Andrews
Red Rolfe sounds like it could be a variety of rice.
mockcarr
Dart mouth sounds like an insult do British pub patrons
Kenny
PCA lead off homer incoming
Paul Sporer
Or a KIng punchie!
Paul Sporer
Rolfe was a G! He's got some banger seasons. I make a card for him each year in Out of the Park Baseball and that 1939 was really sharp!
Sæder
what's more taxing? high velocity fastballs? or hard or high-spin off speed? Or are they the same thing?
Davy Andrewsedited
Honestly, I think it depends on the pitcher. The biomechanics involved are so individualized.
Paul Sporer
I'd generally think velo but don't know for sure
Ben Schneider
Didn't think we'd get a "Josh Donaldson on the Yankees" callout
mockcarr
Rolfe was a helluva piano player for the Electric Mayhem. Or was that an alternate spelling…
Davy Andrews
Think it was the same guy.
cyanocitta
I like Sæder's question. It feels like velo is a big driver, but spin can really tax certain points on the kinetic chain. I'd love to see some sort of retrospective pitch-profiling resource to ascertain the most likely variables involved in increasing future injury risk
Paul Sporer
Ya I think Davy nailed it that's pitcher-specific
Stuart Shapiro
Surprised not Jazz for Volpe
Sæder
i just assumed it was how fast the arm was moving, which i also figured would be very fast on off-speed pitches that spun a lot?
Jack Dorfman
who's going to go deeper into games than Schlittler these yoffs?
Davy Andrews
More Schlitt!
Paul Sporer
Well there's your leadoff HR…..
Paul Sporer
Wow Girardi called it with Schlitt. I dunno about this
Davy Andrews
And PCA was very involved.
Snerd
NANDO
Paul Sporer
It's just for Willson, ya?
Davy Andrews
What is wrong with the BOS-NYY broadcast right now? It's like zoomed in to the top left of the screen.
Paul Sporer
Nevermind…
Davy Andrews
Are other people seeing this?
Paul Sporer
Yes I see your msg, Davy
Benny The Jet
Most career scoreless postseason outings with 10+ strikeouts:
Justin Verlander: 3
Cam Schlittler: 2
Sandy Koufax: 2
Kevin Brown: 2
Randy Johnson: 2
Cliff Lee: 2
via Sarah Langs
Jack Dorfman
My screen is fine
Davy Andrews
So weird. On my TV, like they cropped off the bottom and right-most quarter of the screen. The score bug takes up nearly half the screen horizontally.
Paul Sporer
Oh I'm an idiot, thought you meant you msg
MyBloodyBallantine
Mine too on Mlb.tv
cyanocitta
What's the over-under on Schlittler' number of pitches?
Davy Andrews
What's the over-under on first inning homers for the Pads?
springer
That last fastball from Schlittler was 96. 116 is a lot of pitches
Paul Sporer
117 for Schlitt
Paul Sporer
Meanwhile B2B HRs for SD and Petco is hoppin!
cyanocitta
Exactly, Davy
Seuss2004
Padres lead the postseason in HRs
springer
Why is Samad Taylor (2 career home runs) batting 2nd, between Tatis and Machado?
Davy Andrews
He had a 130 wRC+ this season. Just don't look at the peripherals.
MyBloodyBallantine
Is there another pitcher who owns someone like Schlittler owns Boston? It is absolutely nuts how good he’s been
Davy Andrews
I think that's less about Boston and more about Schlittler.
jaysohm
Stammen likes contact guys at 2nd. It'll be Taylor or Dustin Harris all playoffs
Joey Caltrain
Torn between rooting against the Yankees and wanting them to be rewarded for leaving Schlittler in
cyanocitta
Also, MLB Network was discussing earlier today whether you start your best pitcher in Game 1 or Game 2. I feel more comfortable with Game 1, simply due to front-loading the series win probability added, but they were insisting on Game 2 due to psychological reasons. Perhaps somewhat similar to Cristiano taking the fourth penalty in a shootout, rather than the first. What are your thoughts?
Davy Andrews
I'd say you're getting a bit too cute.
Seuss2004
Machado hitting that HR reminded me, we're totally seeing an unprecedented year for milestones next year [CAVEATS] with 7 players within 17 HRs of #400. That's gotta be a record, no?
Davy Andrews
I'm not going to look it up at this time of night, but I would imagine so!
cyanocitta
Apparently Girardi always preferred the Game 2 start, for the record
Benny The Jet
You want max availability in the ALDS too, and that extra day can matter
Davy Andrews
Word.
Nick Smith
Is an 0-2 hole good enough to lure the Pads into a false sense of security, or should the Cubs keep it up?
Davy Andrews
Now you're thinking.
Paul Sporer
@cynaocitta – Repeating a stat I mentioned earlier, but game 1 winners are 15-1 in the 3-game series era. Just start your best. Wayyyy too cute to "save" 'em IMO
cyanocitta
Absolutely! Squeezing every last game out of your ace seems prudent
cyanocitta
You all need to set MLBN straight. Thanks for pulling the stat, Paul
Moate
I haven’t watched on all these various apps before: did Peacock always pull a guy from both teams? Hugely stoked to hear JD calling the cubs in the playoffs!
Davy Andrews
Yeah, I think they've been doing this all year.
Jack Dorfman
Uh oh Sox
Davy Andrews
Thought for a second we might see someone challenge Abreu's arm.
springer
Is it not a little crazy to bring in Chapman in the 7th, down 2+?
Davy Andrews
Looks like he's back down?
Jack Dorfman
It'd be more than a little crazy
cyanocitta
Now, you certainly cannot bring in Aroldis
small e
Chapman has a really long warmup routine. I'm assuming he's just getting his first steps in on a just-in-case-for-the-ninth basis
Paul Sporer
Ya akin to Houston going to Hader, just not worth it IMO
bosoxforlife
The Yankees have 7 hits and 5 have been by lefties on lefties.
Jack Dorfman
6 of 8*
Jack Dorfman
Rice is a problem
Hoplarsko
Did the Padres second half turnaround coincide with the change of ownership? I know. I know. Correlation does not mean causation.
Davy Andrews
No, looks the sale was earlier, in May. And then final MLB approval came later, in August.
cyanocitta
Six of eight now
bosoxforlife
now 7 of 10.
Seuss2004
I love the 'no time like October' slogan, especially since any team losing in 2 games won't actually play in October.
Snerd
Peacock is the streaming app that hasn’t figured out how to successfully stream
Davy Andrews
Honestly, I watch a lot of Peacock and I generally think it works really well.
small e
nick sogard. ball. player.
Davy Andrews
They tried to tell us.
Sæder
i don't have a TV anymore. but for anyone that does, I'll just plug antennas — they can work quite well, and it's free TV!
mockcarr
As a Nats fan I have always thought Luis Garcia jr could be a good hitter, but man have I seen that kind of luck a lot..
Ben Schneider
Wow, a genuinely good swing from the Sox
lzfreak
These teams that had to randomly travel to the Trop for one game to end the season have come out a bit flat
Davy Andrews
This is a fair point.
farrell823
Send Blackburn out for the 9th?
Davy Andrewsedited
Oh man, I don't know. Paul? Jack?
Jack Dorfman
Feel like I'd want a bit more of a sure thing
Davy Andrews
How cute do you want to get considering the stakes?
Jack Dorfman
As good as he's been, just feels like I don't want to allow a rally or any momentum at all
Davy Andrews
If it backfires, you will never fall asleep again.
angryyankeesfan
The Yankees kind of need Blackburn to be available tomorrow
farrell823
You're right, 4 runs not enough to get cute, and if they score more, there's no need to waste him for tm
Davy Andrews
On the other hand, if they knock in one of these runs right now, why not put in a position player?
beanbong
Didn’t end up mattering but PCA played that ball off the wall perfectly
Davy Andrews
It was gorgeous.
Davy Andrews
Man, I worry about Bello's control right now.
Hoplarsko
That Kershaw comment about pitch counts was misguided.
Davy Andrews
I had the sound on the other game. What'd they say?
bosoxforlife
There is no reason to worry, this one is ovah.
small e
You can't win with 0 runs and 3 hits but I'm also unimpressed with Tracy's bullpen choices in this one… feels like he punted as soon as Gamboa was in
small e
Feels like Tracy is not playing the second order chess that you need to in 3 games in a row to try and coax out the Yankees' best bullpen arms
Jack Dorfman
not getting helped by the offense
Sæder
Davy, which position player would you call up for the bottom of the 9th? Stanton?
Davy Andrews
Excellent choice.
small e
getting ass whooped by schlittler is the main problem of course. Supposedly the Red Sox spent the entire last week practicing on him on trajekt……. to apparently no effect at all
Davy Andrews
Ohh, that's really interesting. Where'd you hear that?
bosoxforlife
If I could second guess Tracy, which wouldn't have made much difference because the Red Sox weren't going to score, he should have gone with Bello after Tolle.
small e
gonna try to hunt up a link but it was reported that they chose to use the visitors clubhouse in Tampa but specifically demanded access to the home Trajekt system for practice on yankee pitching
Ben Schneider
Rob Bradford posted that the Sox "wore out" the trajekt machine in Tampa
bosoxforlife
I wonder how many hits the Red Sox could muster against Trajekt? LOL
I can't say I had 9 runs in a game on the bingo card
small e
this could not have gone worse if you scripted it
Ben Schneider
time to change games
farrell823
have the red sox found a northeast scout yet?
MyBloodyBallantine
Well this was everything you hoped to not see if you are a Red Sox fan.
Ben Schneider
ooh Dave Flemming
Davy Andrews
Ok, I'm officially only watching Cubs-Padres at this point.
Paul Sporer
Ya this got super-sideways
Paul Sporer
Yep, BOS-NYY is muted on the iPad w/CHC-SDP taking over the computer
bosoxforlife
It's a good thing this isn't European soccer where the outcome is decided by cumulative score over the duration of the series.
bosoxforlife
Years ago the Red Sox also missed on George Springer from Connecticut.
springer
Would it be possible to add the chats to the mobile app?
Davy Andrews
This is a good question, and I am absolutely not the right person to answer it, but I will take a guess and say that the answer is "Yes, but it would take a TON of work from our dev team, who already do a TON of work."
MyBloodyBallantine
Amazing how every lever Tracy pulled in this game was the wrong one.
angryyankeesfan
I understand wanting to watch Cubs-Padres, but I am a Yankees fan who doesn't have Peacock so I will see this out and then go to bed.
wenz
Battle of the Motorolla-sponsored teams
wiguy94
The Chicago pitching staff's HR issue has carried over to the postseason it appears
Ben Schneider
Bogaehts!
wenz
I came in as a Cubs fan who understood that the Padres were favored, but I'm becoming sad
Davy Andrews
I'm so sorry. We've all been there.
Davy Andrews
Friends, we are going to close out the chat now, both because the eight o'clock game is over and because the baby monitor is telling me that any minute I'm going to have to spend some time bouncing a six-month-old on a yoga ball.
Paul Sporer
Thanks for coming out, y'all, I had a great time!!
wenz
Thanks for sticking around so late!
Davy Andrews
Thank you all for spending this time with us. I don't have my own chat, and I look forward to this one every year.
Eric A Longenhagen: Hello friends and neighbors, it’s good to be home in Tempe and back on the backfield grind. Let’s chat for an hour and go do some more, shall we?
12:04
rossredcay: Anything to get excited about with Max Williams? Sounds like big EVs and decent enough contact rates? Is this a possible helium guy?
12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Marlins good-bodied OF prospect out of Florida State, really physical 22-year-old kid with big lefty pop. Missed most of the season with a shoulder issue (iirc) and then raked in a limited sample. Plus power, metrics way better than they were last year. I can see why Beeg slid him off the main section of the Marlins list based on last year’s data, but it looks way different than in ’25. 51% hard hit, 114 max. Contact rate is scary, down at 70% even though he was mostly in A-ball this year. Def a prospect, still probably a lower-ranked one.
12:08
Bud Smith: Any idea what happened to Aiva Arquette? It was surprising to see him placed on the IL with two days left in the AA season
12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Blerg, I didn’t see that. Let me see if I can run down what happened and his Fall League prognosis during chat…
12:10
Charles Bengal Tiger: Of the players likely coming over this offseason from Korea and Japan, who projects to have the biggest impact … and contract?
Brendan Gawlowski: Housekeeping notes: I don’t think I’ll be able to chat next week, at least not at the usual time, because I’ll be in AZ watching instructs.
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m hoping I’ll have a couple pieces up by then. In particular, I’m working on something with a rough working title of ‘How to scout in the age of the model’ that I’m excited about
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I may also have a “wait, what?” or “because you asked”
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: For now, let’s get to it
2:02
darrenasu: Where does Bryce Eldridge fit among the rookie of the year candidates this year? Who would you take ahead of him if you could draft from all rookies that debuted this year?
Jay Jaffe: I’m working on something on the weakest spots on the remaining contenders. Aaron Judge was already in my lede due to the uncertainty regarding his calf strain, and now we’ve learned that he received a PPP injection https://bsky.app/profile/chelseajanes.bsky.social/post/3mw4kutow4s2a
Jay Jaffe