Meg Rowley: Hello everyone, and welcome to my first chat of 2019.

Meg Rowley: Happy New Year to all!

Jim: What will the White Sox get from Boston for Kelvin Herrera in 2 weeks?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think it’ll be that quick of a move, but barring a bevy of other signings, I wouldn’t expect him to be in a White Sox uniform come the end of July if he’s at all decent.

Meg Rowley: (prepares to see immediate trade news break)

Wade: Hi Meg, can something please happen

Dan Szymborski: A wild Szym approaches!

Dan Szymborski: A Szym draws near!

Dan Szymborski: Command?

Dan Szymborski: The Szym attacks!

Dan Szymborski: Thy hits decreased to 45.

Dan Szymborski: (I’m just going to do this for an hour)

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, an unusual time to chat but here we are.

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is watching the front yard studiously, barking at anyone that dares walk by on the sidewalk

Kiley McDaniel: The Phillies list went up earlier this week, the Mets list is done but will go up Monday and we’ve a good ways down the road on BOS and TB for next week

Kiley McDaniel: Draft list also is basically done but not time sensitive, so that will go up soon enough along with a new podcast

Tommyboy: With the announcement of Koby Perez as international scouting director, how long do you think it’ll take for the Os to be players in the international market?

Blazeball: Any word on late bloomers in the int’l market that the Orioles could sign?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where Harper or Machado are going to sign

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know when Harper or Machado are going to sign

stever20: So with the news from Jim Bowden that the Nats have increased their offer to Bryce Harper- do you think they are now the favorites to sign him?

Jeff Sullivan: Let us first consider whether or not that report is accurate or credible

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon, happy new year, and welcome to my first chat of 2019. Sorry for the delay — the payoff of a long game of phone tag came due. Anyway, let’s get started…

Sirras: Do you have any baseball-related resolutions for the new year?

Jay Jaffe: 1) More time at the ballpark — figuring out child care coverage of a 2-year-old when both my wife and I are working within the confines of daily baseball coverage is a trick we have yet to master.

2) Spread out my viewing among more teams.

Travis: Given Larry Walker’s (potential?) surge in balloting so far, and assuming he finishes above 50% – still more likely for him to go in via the Today’s Game committee? Or are we saying there’s a chance?

Jay Jaffe: We’re really kind of in uncharted territory here.

Jay Jaffe: we’ve never seen a surge from 20-something to 75%+ within a 2-year span, and we really haven’t seen even anybody recent get in from mid-50s to 75% in one year. I wrote about big jumps in the modern era of voting history (1966 onward) in connection to the candidacies of Bagwell and Raines a few years back (https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/hall-of-fame-ballot-vote-biggest-jum…) and the closest analogue I can come up with is Luis Aparicio, who went from 36.9% to 84.6% in three years. And that was years 3-6 within a 15-year cycle.

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, family was just packing up and leaving so had to see them off. First Christmas in the new house is now completed and it’s still standing. Now to finish up some NL East lists, finalize the draft update, make plans for NYE and chat with you people

Kiley McDaniel: I think the lists will go Phillies then Mets then it looks like we’re headed to the AL East.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn going to be the first strictly 1b to go in the top 5 in a long time?

Santa’s Marginal: Right now- Witt Jr or Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, that’s how it looks right now re: Vaughn. Again, here’s the current draft board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te…) and the update will just be sliding 10-12 names around and expanding the end of it, mostly moving guys around in the middle of the list.  Vaughn is in the 50 FV tier behind the clear #1 Rutschman and that 2 thru 12 could be in a lot of orders. Since Vaughn is a track record college hitter, he’s probably in the top half of that tier, but it’s still super early, so guys will move with performance in season.

Kiley McDaniel: And on Abrams/Witt, its probably about 50/50 in the industry right now and they’re both in that tier. I think we’ll basically have them back-to-back in the update, so it’s more deferring the decision until we get more info.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: The baseball chat that interferes with my ability to write about this morning’s three-team exchange!

AJ: Odds harper ends up in LA?

Jeff Sullivan: Based on nothing — 40%?

Xolo: Did the Rangers just give Profar away?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. It’s been a while since we’ve chatted. I’ll spare you the list of links to things written since then and just remind everyone that fangraphs.com/prospects is where all of it ends up.

Mike: I know you hate when people compare prospect lists, but I’ve seen three top 10/30 lists for the Cubs and one Paul Richan was ranked #5 and the other two, he wasn’t ranked at all. Is there a wide range of opinions on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there is a wide range of opinions. I’d be surprised if anyone had an eval outside of the #4/5-6th starter range and I think the disparity in rankings comes from how various publications value that type guy, not the eval itself.

The West is Wild: The Diamondbacks will have a large bonus pool in 2019. Is there any kind of general trend of how teams with similarly large pools have strategized? This situation seems unique to me as their pool is big without having a top 5 pick…

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re kind of at the mercy of the talent structure of the draft class and where other teams with multiple picks select in relation to you. Like Philly had a ton of money in the Moniak draft but the tier of preps they wanted to spend the extra money on was scooped up by teams who had extra picks before their second one. Kansas City just kinda stuck to their board last year and got a bunch of good value college picks, they didn’t play games at all.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are countless scenarios and variables teams can’t control. What is best for ARI to do will be more obvious 4 months from now.

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks and welcome to the last pre-Xmas version of my FanGraphs chat for the year. Lots of questions in the hopper already so let’s get to it…

Scott: Does Baines’ election open the door for Nick Markasis in Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: I suppose it’s possible 30 years down the road, but I think people are misunderstanding the ramifications of Baines’ election. By and large, the BBWAA voters, who as a group rejected Baines at a 94-95% clip five times, aren’t going to take a crony-driven bag job as something that represents a new standard, and just elect any player who gives 3,000 hits a run but falls short. if Markakis gets there, he’ll likely be the least decorated player to do so, and it will be interesting to see how voters react, but when we’ve got 8x Gold Glovers being ignored, I have a hard time imagining such a relatively un-decorated player getting in.

Nate: What chances do you see Tulo going to the Pirates?

Jay Jaffe: I think there are several teams looking into the possibility of signing Tulo. Given his California ties and the fact that they made the playoffs last year, I’d put more money on the A’s landing Tulo than the Pirates. Then again, if a team like Pittsburgh can offer him a clearer path to 500 PA (as if his body can cooperate), maybe there’s something there.

Dan: How widely known is it that there’s a whole museum that is separate from the actual Hall at the HOF? Lots of coverage doesn’t make that clear, and I think it influences people’s opinions on who should be voted in.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Nationals list coming soon, I would guess tomorrow with the Mets and Phillies both being worked on right now, but may be held until post Christmas. Sounds like AL East will come next.

Kiley McDaniel: Also the winter meetings pushed back the draft list update but that’s also basically done and coming soon and I think we’re recording a podcast in the next 24-48 hours

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

Lilith: Who from the Reds system are you most excited to see break out next year who might not be a well known prospect (yet)?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-cincinnati-reds/

Kiley McDaniel: There’s the list. Some higher variance guys to keep an eye on would be the top righties from the last draft class (Josiah Gray moreso than Lyon Richardson), SS Jose Garcia, RF Danny Lantigua, RHP James Marinan, 2B Cash Case