Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2023!

Jay Jaffe: Happy New Year to you all

Jay Jaffe: I’m in the midst of the one-and-dones on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot, players who won’t get the 5% needed to stick around for another year but whose careers merit a proper sendoff. Today it was Andre Ethier https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-andr…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday it was Jacoby Ellsbury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jaco…, and on Wednesday it was R.A. Dickey, a piece that was particularly fun to write https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-r-a-…

Jay Jaffe: Of course, it wouldn’t be a First Chat of the Year if there weren’t some technical glitch that needs my attention for a minute…

Jay Jaffe: OK, finally got the banner to show up atop the home page, something I tend to forget to check

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to what will be a brief Friday chat due to previous commitments

John: How much $ did Arenado leave on the table by opting out? Seems like they did not anticipate this hot of a market

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good question. The market does seem to have taken off in ways that nobody seems to have anticipated. We’ve seen a lot of teams dilute AAVs via longer deals (who’s to say where any of us will be in 11 years?) but Ben Clemens also had a very good piece on interest rates and inflation that even a dullard like me could understand https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contr…

ChadT: What are the Dodgers doing?

Jay Jaffe: that’s a good question. I wish I had a better answer than “waiting to see how much of T***** B****’s back salary they might owe if he wins his arbitration case” but here we are. The Syndergaard deal seems OK but if they could have kept Tyler Anderson at the 3/$39M he took from the Angels that would have been better

Eric A Longenhagen: Happy Friday, everyone. I’m gonna give it a minute for questions to flood the queue since I posted the chat close to noon.

Eric A Longenhagen: Please enjoy as I post some links from this week’s stuff. Twin Peaks Theme – YouTube

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote about NPB players here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/update-to-the-board-npb-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: A long analysis of Kodai Senga here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-bolster-rotation-sign-kodai-senga/

Eric A Longenhagen: KBO players here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/update-to-the-board-kbo-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: International amateurs here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/board-update-2023-international-amateur-pr…

Dan Szymborski: And here we are!

Nolan F: Gotta ask cuz we are already hearing rumblings…do you think there’s gonna be another lockout in 2027? Small/mid market owners are going to demand a hard salary cap because of Cohen

Dan Szymborski: I don’t anticipate labor peace

Dan Szymborski: Especially if, with so many teams over the CBT and the CBT only growing at 1.5%, teams are quiet in subsequent offseasons

Josh: Other than a fantastic 2017 International Class, how have the Guardians failed to produce in the international waters. Recent drafts shows they can identify young talent in America, is it just bad luck?

Dan Szymborski: While I wouldn’t say it’s *just* bad luck, luck inevitably plays some role in these things

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat. Some minor technical stuff on this end so bear with me for a  couple minutes

Jay Jaffe: Sorry about that _ the chat wasn’t showing up on the home page banner, which make it harder for site visitors to know it’s happening. Anyway, now that it’s up, let’s get going. I’m rollin(s) on my BBWAA ballot profiles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jimm…), had Billy Wags yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill…). Hoped to get the Carlos Beltrán one out this week but there’s so much ground to cover and more care needs to be taken to get it to where I want it.

Jay Jaffe: I did a Twitter thread on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, whose results I’ll cover on Sunday

Jay Jaffe: and dug into the potential for cronyism now that the Committee voters have been announced https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-naming-the-era-committee-members-the-ha…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

Kyle B: even if Judge re-signs with the Yanks, do you think they’ll still pursue Turner, Bogaerts or another star?

Dan Szymborski: And started, the chat has!@

DanIsOurMan: Love love love Zips season! Can you dig into Cruz’s projection a bit more? Surprised his 80th percentile didn’t show more power?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, it’s the 80th percentile projection overall, not the 80th percentile projection of a specific aspect

Dan Szymborski: If he hit the 80th percentile for all his measurables then it would be a higher than 80th percentile projection!

DanIsOurMan: What’s the schedule for the roll out?

Dan Szymborski: Four or five a week

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first 2022-23 offseason edition of my chat. I’m not sure if this is the Hot Stove or the smoldering wreckage of Twitter, but here we are. I’ve been covering the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot this week, with entries on Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Belle, and Don Mattingly, all of which you can get to via the nav bar here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: Next up is Dale Murphy, which will run Monday because I added some Deep Thoughts that were brought about by the advent calendar of bad behavior by some of the others on this ballot. I also covered Anthony Rizzo’s return to the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rizzo-heads-back-to-the-bronx/

Malcolm Nunez: Hi Jay is Goldy a lock for the Hall now?

Jay Jaffe: I was just looking at his page a little while ago, prompted by a similar question from MLB Network Radio pal Mike Ferrin. I wrote about Goldschmidt’s progress in mid-July (https://t.co/IydUWFrx7r) after which he continued to mash even with a September slump, which is why he’s the NL MVP

Jay Jaffe: Here’s how he looks via JAWS:

First Base (18th):
58.5career WAR |45.37yr-peak WAR |51.9JAWS |5.8WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: That peak score is 13th all time, nestled between Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera. I’d say that the heavy lifting for Goldschmidt is over, and that he’s on his way provided he gets the remaining 250 hits he needs to reach 2,000 (which he in all likelihood will)

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, hope you’ve had a good week. Please check out my East division 40-man deadline day thoughts if you have not, more is on the way next week, and then we’ll get into prospect lists.

Dan: Considering your top 100 ranks, do you see Joey Ortiz having a greater 2023 impact than Jordan Westburg?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Not necessarily. If Jorge Mateo keeps playing well but Ramon Urias does not while Westburg keeps raking in the minors, then I could see a scenario where Westburg plays and not Ortiz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz skill foundation is partially his defense (the other is all the contact), and with the shift banned that becomes more important. His 50 FV is a bet on his long-term fit as an average everyday shortstop, Westburg certainly has more power than him, and his FV may change this offseason as my thoughts on what to do with these bat-first, shift-aided infield types solidifies.

Matt: Do you buy Jake McCarthy as an every day regular? I have a hard time believing his batted ball data will allow him to sustain his performance from last year

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, even though he’s made some changes I think you have to lean on the xSLG, etc. to gauge how real the power output is. Probably a 4th OF type now, a half grade better than he was evaluated as a prospect.