Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Egg salad sandwich

Daniel: What kind of year do you expect from Corbin Burnes? Will we ever see a year from him again like his 2021?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the *average* result, but the chance is certainly there

Dan Szymborski: I do think he’s slightly down from his highest peak

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy Hall of Fame election results day!

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a lot on my plate today but since my chats have been so scarce lately i figured I’d spend a bit of time answering questions here as a way to burn off some nervous energy. Hall of Fame and hot stove q’s take precedence. Speaking of hot stoves, our new range arrived today, replacing the 20+ year piece of junk that this house came with. it had better heat more evenly!

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my look at our Hall of Fame crowdsource ballot results and a preview of election day https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-envelope-please-our-2024-hall-of-fame-…. I’ll obviously have more this evening

Jay Jaffe: And here’s a Twitter thread linking to the most likely honorees and a few other key pieces in this year’s series https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status/1749868791738097982

OK, on with the show

Refugee: FanGraphs voters are small hall? What the heck?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t exactly say that. While the two candidates elected in this year’s crowdsource poll was fewer than in any of the previous five years, voters averaged just shy of 8 names per ballot; it’s just that those were spread more widely than we’ve seen

Dan Szymborski: And we are here!

James: You never win trading away Juan Soto. That said, Preller must be thrilled with his haul right now given how the SP FA market has been shaking out, no?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though I’m  not thinking much of Padres in 2024; that’s still a lot of performance to replace and they kinda needed pitching *now*

Laxtonto: Does it seem like this offseason is moving slow on the FA front? Or is it just perception of the long offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think slower than usual. One thing is that there just aren’t many very good position players ou thtere

Dan Szymborski: Been really lite on stars

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2024 and my first one in… a little while. Between my move and Hall of Fame season it’s been tough to carve out time for these, so my apologies. On that subject, today I’ve got a piece celebrating the 20th anniversary of the introduction of JAWS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chewing-on-jaws-at-20/. Hopefully tomorrow I’ll have my profile of José Bautista to add to the one-and-done roster. I did Matt Holliday on Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-matt…

Guest: I just learned from your JAWS article that you were a designer for children’s books! Any titles you’re particularly proud of from that phase? Who’s in your board book HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’m most proud of serving as the creative director for the 2002, 2003, and 2004 editions of the World Almanac for Kids. I got to design the covers and oversaw the whole project on the design side. https://www.ebay.com/itm/302336851464?chn=ps&_trkparms=ispr%3D1&amdata…

Jay Jaffe: In 2002 I got to put Venus Williams on the cover, while in 2003 it was Sammy Sosa (oops, but keep in mind these were decided a year in advance).

Jay Jaffe: I also got to do the covers of the 2002 and 2003 World Almanacs

Jay Jaffe: and some cool science textbooks and some dreadful mathbooks.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been the ZiPSiest transaction of the offseason, and what would be the ZiPSiest potential one from here?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. Or even what the question means!

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Jung-hoo Lee? When ZiPS evaluates the opt-out it gets relaly close to actual

Mike: What new legend player would you most like to see in MLB The Show 24?

Dan Szymborski: TETTLETON

Dan Szymborski: IT’S A CHAT!

Champdo: So how many bats do you think Colt Keith gets for the Tigers next season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m with Jason here, I think 300-400 PA is reasonable. Unless he flops, I think the Tigers will figure out how to play them, even if the position right now is uncertain

Houzer: Could Willy Adames be an option for the Tigers at 3B in a trade? Maybe like a Sawyer Gipson-Long for Adames deal?

Dan Szymborski: Adames would be fun. I don’t think Gipson-Long by himself gets it done th ough.

Dan Szymborski: And it may be dependent on where the Brewers are.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to a live at the Winter Meetings edition of my chat. I’m here in Nashville at the Opryland MegaBioDome monstrosity with something like a dozen of my FanGraphs colleagues. There hasn’t been a ton going on transaction-wise, but it’s good to be here nonetheless.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I published my coverage of Jim Leyland’s election to the Hall of Fame via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot for Managers/Executives/Umpires https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-calls-for-jim-leyland/

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I had my first writeup of a new candidate on this year’s BBWAA ballot, Joe Mauer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-joe-… and today I’ve got a look at Year 2 of Carlos Beltrán’s candidacy https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-carl…

Scott: Rumors are rumors, but I don’t see how Ohtani wins a WS ring if he returns to the Angels. That organization just doesn’t seem to have the leadership that’s needed to make it happen. Is that assessment off-base?

Jay Jaffe: No, i don’t think this is off-base at all. Honestly, I find an Ohtani return to Anaheim rather implausible because their infrastructure — the roster and the DOA farm system (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings) — just isn’t there in a way that suggests anything but more of the same. Whether it’s the Blue Jays, Dodgers, or another team, I think he can do better elsewhere, and I have to think he believes that as well.

Travis: What’re the chances Kelenic suddenly puts it all together?

Dan Szymborski: ITS CLOBBERING TIME

striker: Being an Orioles fan and play analyst, who would you be willing to give up in a Cease deal? Would a Cease + Jimenez deal interest you?

Dan Szymborski: Jimenez no

Dan Szymborski: Cease, I’d do something with Westburg as the center (I like Westburg). But I wouldn’t go Westburg AND Mayo

Joe: What key indicators do you look at for determining if a prospect should be called up?

Dan Szymborski: Well, who he’s replacing really.

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s just get going

John Mozeliak: So I should jump the market for Sonny Gray right? Get one starter out of the way, what do I need to offer? 4 years for $90?

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t love this plan, there’s less benefit to ‘jumping’ a market when you’re trying to get more than one person

Ben Clemens: and also, the cardinals should be seeking value if they’re trying to accomplish their stated goals, which are a)keeping payroll constant and b)adding good starting pitching

Ben Clemens: overshooting the market to get your guy works a lot better when you only need one guy