Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to another edition of my Friday FanGraphs chat. That’s four in a row, my longest streak in quite some time!

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a fun piece that grapples with the possibility that Fernando Tatis Jr. has already shown us enough to suggest he could wind up in the Hall of Fame — an article that’s confusing the hell out of people for whom binary answers are the only answers. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-has-a-clear-shot-at-coop…

Jay Jaffe: As I write this, i’m listening to the first edition of Kevin Goldstein’s new podcast. I don’t generally get to listen to podcasts because it’s very hard to think of words when somebody is speaking words in my general direction, but I’m excited to hear what KG and co-host David Roth are up to  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chin-music-episode-1-the-regal-beagle/

Jay Jaffe: Word of warning: if you have a question about prospects, all I’m going to be able to do is point you to articles about prospects. I’m not Eric Longenhagen

Jay Jaffe: And with that, on with the show…

MM: Hey Jay!  Do you think the Tatis signing will affect negotiations between the Dodgers and their shortstop Corey Seager?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Thanks for coming to the chat and, I assume, checking out the Top 100. Let’s get to your questions.

MB: Can you talk more about Ashby being the top Brewers prospect? Wasn’t expecting that.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Turang was a fairly late cut from the list. He and Ashby were very close on the ordinal rankings. I think Turang has a shot to be a 50 based on his glove and OBP skills, but I think there’s real risk of him just getting blown away by velo at the top of the zone because of how deep those hands load, and that his “patience” my by passivity. So he fell out but you could argue him as a 50. Taylor Trammell same thing.

Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Mitchell still has his pre-draft 45+ FV grade. Basically he’s Travis Swaggerty (speed, CF, raw power, not sure if he’ll get to it in games) just several levels behind Swag.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ashby was nasty in the Fall. If you put him in Milwaukee’s bullpen tomorrow, I bet he’d be awesome in a leveraged role, and he has a long-term chance to start as a strikeout-heavy five and dive type

Eric A Longenhagen: and I’ll just take that guy rather than bet on Mitchell’s swing changing

Dan Szymborski: And welcome to the chat!

Dan Szymborski: Should Fantographs be a FG skin option? Let us know!

Dan Szymborski:

George: Andrew Stevenson: Legit Starter or a fourth outfielder

George: Andrew Stevenson: Legit Starter or 4th outfielder? I know its small sample size and huge BABIP, but 2019 and 2020 statcasts support the hitting. His LA and Exit Velos are up and he can absolutely burn on the basepaths and plays a good OF.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t see him as a viable starter at this point. His cups of coffee are good, but small sample as you say and his minor league performances are fairly bleak

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone and welcome to the chat. Let’s get started.

JJ: Not a question but I feel super elite browsing FG in dark mode. Would recommend membership to anyone reading this who isn’t currently one.

Meg Rowley: It is so cool! I’m glad you’re enjoying it. I’ll remind our chatters that it is benefit for all of our Members, regular and ad-free.

Meg Rowley: Our writers are rad and because they do work that has their name obviously attached every day, they get their due praise, but Sean Dolinar is really FanGraphs’ unsung hero. The dev work that he and David do is so great.

Anthony: Who do you think takes the A.L West?

Meg Rowley: Despite their departures and some concern about the rotation, I think Houston emerges but if some of the upside plays in the rotation pan out, LA isn’t a wild guess.

Jon: Under Luhnow, the Astros seemed to have a practice of basically giving out no minor league deals to veterans (maybe anyone?) during the offseason (IIRC, Jared Hughes was the only one they signed last offseason). What was the reasoning for that, and what did you think about that?

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Welcome to the chat. Starting half an hour late today as I was talking to some baseball execs and agents about circus clowns (no, seriously, you’ll see soon), but we’ll hold tight to the 12pm ET on Monday’s in the future.

Kevin Goldstein: Fun first question and nice catch! I didn’t know anyone noticed. The Astros generally signed 1-3 veteran minor league FAs a year. Most teams averaged 10-12, and I remember one year where a team exceeded 30. The general thought there was that the org and depth and wanted to learn about the kids as opposed to insurance policies. I agree with it in general, but always pushed to sign a few more. I would have been in the 4-8 range most years.

Matt: Do teams ever hold grudges with agents? Would the Mets ever be less willing to engage with Bauer and agency if they thought they had a deal?

Kevin Goldstein: Grudges yes, but not in anyway that would prevent you from engaging. Plenty of agents I really liked dealing with, and some not so much, but no reason to let personal feelings about their representative get in the way of trying to acquire someone who can help the team.

Asinwreck: Great conversation with Steven Goldman at his podcast today. Will you write a lot about your experiences in the Dominican Republic? (Please write a lot about your experiences in the Dominican Republic.)

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to today’s chat — the first time I’ve gone back-to-back weeks with a chat since… September! Some housekeeping while we wait for the queue to fill…

Jay Jaffe: On Monday I published my latest five-year outlook for the Hall of Fame voting https://blogs.fangraphs.com/changing-times-the-next-five-years-of-bbwa…

Jay Jaffe: And then yesterday and today I published a two-part series on the remaining free agents with spring training less than two weeks away. Here are the position players https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-…

Jay Jaffe: And here are the pitchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-2-top-remaining-…

GenericDodgerFan: Bauer has to be signing with the mets i think

Jay Jaffe: Seems quite possible it could go down while we’re in this chat. We’ve all got one eye on it

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone and welcome to the chat!

Guest: Thoughts on why teams wait so long to sign players in the off season?  It seems that there would be an advantage to get players in your system to become comfortable with coaches, analytics, and teammates earlier.  Also allows you to plan better for any early spring training injuries.

Meg Rowley: I think there are a couple of things going on, some of which are specific to our pandemic times and some of which are reflect broader economic trends in the sport. Generally, teams are better able to wait out free agents than free agents are to wait out teams – clubs hope that the delay will exert downward pressure on contract demands because the closer to opening day a player is without a contract, the more likely he is to sign any deal, just to secure a spot.

Meg Rowley: I think that phenom also tends to affect those teams that do want to get guys rostered earlier because the player might want to develop a better sense of his market before signing.

Meg Rowley: More specifically this year, I think the uncertainty about how long of a season we’re going to have in 2021 and whether the NL will have the DH introduced a dynamic that also contributed to the delay.

Meg Rowley: Plus, there’s a CBA negotiation coming up, which probably has at least some effect on new deals as teams are conscious that they might have a different labor and salary landscape in 2022.

dbfirstman: Welcome back Kevin ……

Kevin Goldstein: Thanks! And thanks to everyone who has reached out with kind words, and even the few with not so kind ones. First chat in eight years, so let’s start with a former podcast guest in the Scrabble lady! Looking forward to your questions.

Slippin’Jimmy: Hey Kevin, longtime Astros fan here who is super excited to have you here at Fangraphs! Over the past few years, even before the scandal, there were rumors about cultural issues within the FO that you briefly mentioned in your introduction. What was your experience there and where did they stem from?

Kevin Goldstein: To be clear, most of my experience with the Astros goes in the positive column. I had a really good time. Seven good years, one . . . . well, not so good. Not that there weren’t problems. There were cultural issues within the Astros front office, but I honestly believe that many of them were not specific to the Astros, but more as to the industry itself.

Rodney: It’s taken a few years. But it looks like Teoscar Hernandez might be a bit of a guy, after all. How did the org value him before the trade?

Kevin Goldstein: I feel like at times I’m going to fall into “KG story time” mode, so let me know if it gets annoying. My first trip for the Astros was to instructs in the fall of 2012. First guy to catch my eye was the GCL outfielder with the crazy bat speed. It was Teoscar. Liked him from there, and always was a big fan of him as a person. GREAT guy with a great work ethic. I got him wrong. I thought he was going to be a really nice fourth outfielder, but it’s important to note that when you think about players that exceed expectations, makeup is often a big factor in that. The reverse is true as well.