Dan Szymborski: And we are here.

Dan Szymborski: Because we can’t be there.

Dan Szymborski: Can only be here.

Rick: The Phillies, Braves, and Mets have all made significant additions since their ZiPS projections were released. How do you view their division at this point in time?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think hugely different; the Phillies I think are clearly better.

Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t released Mets yet!

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, happy to be home and back with you, let’s get to it…

RS: Not a Giants fan, but I’m surprised Josuar Gonzalez isn’t considered a top 10 prospect. His batted ball metrics are impressive and the reports on his defense are even more impressive. Is it a proximity thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: The proximity and time-to-maturation pieces of it matter, yeah, and with that comes an added degree of uncertainty. Josuar is so young that aspects of how he’s going to develop athletically and bodily are also more difficult to project at this time…

Eric A Longenhagen: For instance, there was a point where Starlyn Caba’s report was, “Elite defender, elite contact rate (like 90%) DSL SS.”

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Caba, but he’s developed as an athlete in such a way (he’s remained like 5-foot-9, he’s a smaller guy) that limits his ceiling. SOmething like that *could* still happen to Josuar.

Eric A Longenhagen: But there’s also the outcome where he develops, physically, like Lindor. That Josuar even has that kind of ceiling is a special thing in the prospect space, even if it isn’t the likeliest outcome.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good afternoon from my mom’s breakfast nook in Port Charlotte! I fly to Florida a few days early to see family before trekking up to Orlando for Winter Meetings. I can’t wait to do Disney character voices for my peers.

Eric A Longenhagen: I expect chat will be closer to 45 minutes today because I have to wrap up my analysis of last night’s Pirates/Red Sox trade.

Eric A Longenhagen: SO let’s get to it.

AB: Curious to know if you have anything on Seojun Moon that the bluejays signed earlier?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, really well-built Korean kid sitting about 93. Prototypical 6-foot-3 frame, good-looking delivery, command is kind of erratic. Probably would have been a top three pick in the KBO draft, looks like a million dollar arm to me. Maybe got a little more because late-market guys tend to, not a terrible consolation prize for being the Roki runner up.

AB: Wondering if you know anything about the Florida bridge league, any Jays standout and how was Jojo Parker?

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaaay we go

Dan Szymborski: or, heeeeere we go

Lowetide: I noticed a ‘Wilbur Wood’ comp on the Marlins and am now looking forward to Robby Snelling’s career. How often does the Wood comp show up on these lists? He was unique.

Dan Szymborski: Not often, I don’t think

JT: Does Zips not care about optimal launch? Trying to figure out why it loves Michael Harris so much

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does, but Harris is also still quite young, and *should* have higher BABIPs

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy from cloudy Tempe, where we skipped the 70s and went straight to winter. Thanks for coming to another prospect chat. Your boy is sick with something flu-like and had to cancel plans with the neighbors for tonight so I’m just banging away at prospect lists and watching the Robert Altman stuff that will leave Criterion at the end of the month. Nice long chat today, let’s see if I can answer questions as fast as you ask them….

Guards! Guards!: Any update on that oft injured Guardians pitching prospect that everyone keeps asking you about? I, of course, mean Justin Campbell.

Eric A Longenhagen: I texted a few people about this after folks asked just before Halloween and was told a scap strain and wrist stuff prevented him from throwing. I was told by a different source he threw some live bp at the end of September, but wasn’t told how he looked.

Jim: What do you need to see to become a Henry Bolte believer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’m wondering to what degree are you asking me to believe? I think his tools will allow him to be a useful extra outfielder. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a regular. Too late on fastballs, too much whiffing overall. I’d ask you to reflect on what you thought about Colby Thomas twelve months ago and whether you thought I was light on him, too.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What are your thoughts on the Rodriguez-Ward trade?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! And Happy Hall of Fame Ballot Season. Yesterday the BBWAA released the 2026 writers ballot, which I took my first look at here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-questions-about-the-2026-bbwaa-hal…

Jay Jaffe: It’s a weak first-year slate that doesn’t have anybody who will get in this year, and I see only one candidate — Cole Hamels — with any long-term potential

Jay Jaffe: Meanwhile, Carlos Beltrán needs to gain less than 5% to gain entry. My pofile of him should be going up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: Meanwhile, I’ve profiled six of the eight candidates on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, including Fernando Valenzuela on Friday. Long story short, I think the voters should be looking at him as a pioneer rather than focusing on the good-not-great statistics  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: For our weekly subscriber mailbag, I wrote an article-length answer regarding Committee voters potentially treating other candidates as pioneers as well. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-november-15-2025/

Jay Jaffe: with that ample preamble out of the way, on with the show.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from Salt River Fields at Talking Stick where the starting lineups for today’s championship game are coming through the PA.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll likely post it periodically in chat, but here is the link through which you can watch the stream of the game. Live Streams | Arizona Fall League | MLB.com

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re about to get the anthem so I’ll likely step away for, what do we wanna say, over under 1:20 on the anthem?

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be taking your questions as we all watch the game and put the 2025 season…not quite to bed because it feels that way already… more like into R.E.M. sleep

Eric A Longenhagen: Meg is going to time the anthem for us.