Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday evening, had a great time with the whole FG crew and other baseball pals, redeemed the city after ASB.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna preempt a lot of questions by posting a few links to get started…

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of folks asking about the Crochet return. My thoughts went live a few minutes ago. Kyle Teel Headlines Solid Return Package for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: In short: Much better than any of the deals they made last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I also wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz…

Eric A Longenhagen: Guardians Get Pitching Prospects Piñata for Andrés Giménez | FanGraphs Baseball

Dan Szymborski: What time is it? CHAT TIME

Gilbrough@yahoo.com: If the Mariners do get Sasaki does trading Castillo for Triston Casas makes sense.  Do you think they can make a 1 for 1 trade or will they need to add someone like Tyler Locklear to even this out.

Dan Szymborski: If I were the Mariners, I’d be extremely underwhelmed by Casas as the return for Castillo

Jon G: Is a Paredes + prospects package for Tucker really worth it for the Cubs considering their lack of proven 3B options and Tucker being unlikely to agree to an extension?

Dan Szymborski: I think it could be. Though it depends on the prospects.

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine there’d be more moves going along with this one

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. COVID wrecked your boy’s thanksgiving but I’m good to go to winter meetings. My cat came home with dilated pupils last night and the other one couldn’t stop smelling him. I have no other life updates.

Mortons: Quick scouting report on Cobb Hightower? Do you think he’s a top 5 Padres prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hightower was an $850k or so HS signee from North Carolina. Good hitting hands, can really time and swuare a fasball, on time enough to pull, athletic build, didn’t get a thorough look at him playing defense because he wasn’t on the showcase circuit much and I didn’t see SD instructs….

Eric A Longenhagen: Top 5? Maybe. I’d definitely take Salas, De Vries, Mayfield, Cruz ahead of him but I can’t think of anyone off the very top of my head. Pena is good, I’d probably take him, too.

Kate: Assuming he comes back looking the same post-surgery, what are the odds Farmelo vaults up the Top 100 into elite territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: Uhh I’d guess of any of the guys like him and Alfredo Duno where the tools are so nutty bu there’s risk for whatever reason that the “hit it big” rate is like 25%. For every Elly or Oneil or Walcott I feel like there are three Bleises.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I indeed have COVID and am  probably going to do an abbreviated version of chat today. If anyone wants two Todd Barry tickets for tonight at Crescent Ballroom they should holler at me.

Andy: It’s early but any thoughts on next year’s draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like the HS class, I think the college pitching crop will be way better than last year, I’m not sure Ethan Holliday is actually good

Syndergaardengnomes: Too soon for a breakdown of the top rule 5 guys available?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s just such an inefficient, open-ended exercise with an enormous player pool. I could spend a while just scrolling through Roster Resource picking names that stand out to me, but now is not the time for it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Evan Reifert was one, just browsing the site like normal this week, that stood out to me.

Dan Szymborski: Welcome!

Dan Szymborski: Since it decided not to post in the queue for some reason at 11:40 and I had to force it at 11:57, there’s no queue built up, so feel free to ask any question, no matter how ridiculous

Dan Szymborski: And there’s a good chance I’ll be able to answer it, since asking me about how I evaluate pretzels or how many weird AIs I’ve made of Lindsey Graham is way better than awkward silence

Kate: Would Grant Holmes projection be worse if he was projected in the rotation?  In terms of how ZiPS projects his role, is that something you do manually?

Dan Szymborski: As a default, ZiPS will project a player based on their recent usage. It looks at the last four years and VERY heavily weights recent play.

Dan Szymborski: However, I have clickboxes for “full-time starter” or “full-time reliever” which will cause ZiPS to go back and translate the past baselines for a pitcher into full-time starter or full-time reliever lines, and then make a new projections

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my Tuesday chat in awhile. Between playoff coverage, election day, and a family emergency, I haven’t been able to fill this timeslot in awhile; apologies if you’ve been itching for a chat (also, please see a doctor if the itch persists).

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a first look at this year’s BBWAA ballot, which features Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia as the top first-year candidates and  Billy Wagner as the top holdover (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-questions-about-the-2025-bbwaa-hal…). Today, my Era Committee series continues with a look at the candidacy of Dave Parker

Jay Jaffe: That one will go live at 12:30 I’m told. Vic Harris will follow tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: One more bit of adminstration before I get into the questions. Since I last chatted, Bluesky has taken off as the social media platform of choice for baseball chatter of a certain bent, and almost everybody from the FanGraphs family now has an account there. Dan Szymborski helpfully put together a starter pack of the FG-related accounts here https://bsky.app/profile/dszymborski.bsky.social/post/3layykgak222s; I’m @jayjaffe.bsky.social there

Jay Jaffe: I’m winding down my participation on Uncle Elmo’s Authoritatian Disinfo, Grift,and Harassment platform but haven’t entirely figured out the timeline for that. If you want to interact with me and my work, that’s less likely to draw a response now.

Anyway, on with the show…

Filipe: Hi Jay! Do you think there’s going to be a lockout in 2026/27? Missed regular season games?