Dan Szymborski: It’s time for a Szymborski chat
The man is sarcastic and fat
He’ll zing with a smirk
and plug his own work
and pretend that ZiPS WAR is a fact

Guest: Do we need a better way of calculating free agent contracts? Devers contract may be underwater but I would rather pay devers 8 240 (what’s rest on his contract) than vlad 14 500 or whatever insane number Kyle Ticker is going to get. Seems like a Devers would be the cheapest way to get talent / WAR on your team

Dan Szymborski: It’s complicated philosophically!

Dan Szymborski: And we tend to go through cycles. There’s a period where teams spend a lot and then there’s regret and everyone starts getting stingy for a year or two

Endy Chavez: Is Brandon Nimmo intentionally trading walks for home runs? Should he trade back?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, his swing rate bump is fairly small, I’m not sure sure how conscious a decision is made

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folk! Greetings from Wellfleet, where I’m on my annual family (semi) vacation

Jay Jaffe: This is my working week up here, which kicked off with my tribute to the late Dave Parker, who sadly passed away less than a month before his Hall of Fame induction https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-the-cobra-dave-parker-1951-202…

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you have to be a strong proponent of Parker’s HOF case to feel the sadness that comes with the timing of his death. I’m glad he experienced the outpouring of joy, appreciation and love that came with the news of his election.

Jay Jaffe: I’m working on my annual midseason look at the best team defenses, and will have something on Clayton Kershaw’s run for 3,000 strikeouts later this week as well.

Jay Jaffe: Planning to take in a Cape Cod League game sometime after the 4th

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time!

James: Half of the Astros current rotation is basically guys picked up off the scrap heap. Is their performance sustainable and do any of them have middle rotation potential going forward?

Dan Szymborski: This is something the Astros are really good at, though. And really, most of the rotation is just averageish, which is sustainable. Brown and Valdez being good really carries the group and there’s no reason to be suspicious

Galen: If the Twins decide to sell pieces off. What would you expect the market for Buxton and/or Correa to be?  Buxton would have to wave his no trade, but I think he might if they are out of the WC race at the deadline.

Dan Szymborski: I’d expect Buxton, if actually tradeable, would fetch a good price. Correa’s been kind of meh, so I don’t think the Twins would get a nice return if they’re not eating money

Dansby Swansong: Dan, what are the major issues with the expected lockout after the 2026 season?

Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! It’s a grey day in Brooklyn as we’re amid a week of rainy weather, and I’ve got the occasional sounds of workers demolishing our rotting backyard deck right outside my window (https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lrst55laqs2y).

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Cole Ragans’ rotator cuff strain and the state of the Royals’ rotation https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-royals-have-lost-cole-ragans-for-awhil…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on Jo Adell that should be published sometime during this chat. He had a dreadful March/April but has been very good since the start of May, and especially good in June.

Matt VW: Do you think the Devers trade would have still been there in two weeks? As a Red Sox fan, I hate the deal but would have to concede that the timing of it made it feel even worse than it was.

Jay Jaffe: Good question. This deal is a noteworthy exception to my recent declaration about how few substantial trades happen in May or June, with everybody looking to the deadline. I’ve seen conflicting reports about the extent to which the Red Sox tried to trade Devers — how many teams they spoke to besides the Giants. Given the underwhelming return, it sure doesn’t feel as though they dealt him to the highest bidder, and they’d have gotten more for him at a higher-leverage period in late July. Then again, this trade appears to be primarily about dumping his salary and sending a my-way-or-the-highway message to the impressionable youths in the Red Sox clubhouse.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there would have been much harm for the Sox in waiting at least until the end of June, but if they had continued winning, they might have talked themselves out of it. This way they get to look like hardasses, which as we know is the most important part of being a baseball executive.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from dangerously hot Tempe, where I am coffee’ing at the kitchen island getting ready to work on Red Sox and Twins lists while prepping for the Combine.

Eric A Longenhagen: FOr those who missed it, please go read the Rangers list:

Eric A Longenhagen: Texas Rangers Top 45 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: And the Mariners list: Seattle Mariners Top 29 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Ken: Has Jack Perkins’ performance so far in Vegas moved the needle for you at all in terms of how you view his ability to remain a starting pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Ran into him last week as I was working on Mariners and he carved. Physicality looks like he’ll be able to handle it even if he isn’t the most efficient strike thrower. Let’s keep in mind, though, that he’s looked like this (sitting 95-96 t98, plus slider, strikes) for like five weeks, six weeks? It’s not as strong a look as if he’d been doing it since April.