Dan Szymborski: Here is Dan, with #PanicDoritos

Daniel: So, favorite and least favorite baseball movie?

Dan Szymborski: Favorite: Sandlot

Dan Szymborski: LEast: Field of Dreams. I find it treacly and overwrought.

LAXTONTO: Where, of all people, did a confernces select me to review a qualitative paper? I do heavy quant stuff all the time and I got stuck with this?!?!?!

LAXTONTO: How are you and the cats my friend?

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone, and welcome to the chat

Meg Rowley: Apologies for being a little late – had to brush my teeth. You know, how we still observe the trappings of a civilization?

I miss baseball: If there is a 2020 season, would you personally put an * next to the winner?

Meg Rowley: I think we’ll have to be aware of the statistical oddity, but in terms of it having an asterisks because it feels less valid somehow, not really – we’re going to be so happy to have baseball back

Adam: I’m sure I’m only about the 67th person to ask this, but can we please make the Carson/Dayn podcasts a regular thing again?

Meg Rowley: Regular? Likely not – I’m not sure how much we can impose on the Blue Jays generosity. But they have a standing invite.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to the rescheduled, on-the-fly version of my weekly chat. It’s been a rough eight days since we last connected here, for you as surely as it’s been for me, but last night I saw a flicker of hope via a YouTube broadcast from Busan, South Korea, where the Lotte Giants (who employ FanGraphs alum Sung Min Kim) played an intrasquad scrimmage, with former MLB hurlers Dan Straily and Adrian Sampson starting for their respective squads.

Jay Jaffe: I wrote more about that in today’s COVID-19 roundup, as well as some other developments involving a minor league advocacy group and the use of Marlins Park as a spot for drive-through testing https://blogs.fangraphs.com/covid-19-roundup-flickers-of-hope-and-even…

Jay Jaffe: The hope for the KBO is that they can start their season in mid-April, in which case I plan to become as well-versed as possible in the league, because baseball.

Jay Jaffe: Last year I did a bit of poking around KBO stat sites when the Blue Jays brought up Ryan Feierabend, a lefty who remade himself as a knuckleballer while pitching for the Nexen Heroes and KT Wiz https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-feierabend-and-the-disappearing-knuck…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’m chatting here with my 3 1/2-year daughter and her partner in crime, our mutt Sandy, underfoot. The queue is filling slowly. I’ll start tackling questions but if there’s a delay in my responses, it’s because I’m keeping the apartment from burning down or at least sticking two LEGOs together.

STRAY: Will we see 125+ games this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, folks. Lots of smoke to talk about today…

The West is Wild: If the draft were to get canceled, how much of the reasoning would you put on: a) lost revenues for team and, b) the fact that scouts have no one to, uh, scout right now?

Scott: If MLB cancels the 2020 draft but plays a partial 2020 season (say, e.g., 81 games), how would the 2021 draft order be determined. Perhaps use teams’ combined records from 2019 and 2020?

The West is Wild: If the draft were to get canceled, what happens with those prospects? Does a draft happen in October/November? Do they get rolled into the 2021 draft, and if so, does baseball enlarge bonus pools? Is this the precursor to abolishing the draft altogether?

Garland: If the 2020 MLB season is canceled, but they still hold the 2020 MLB draft…how do they determine the draft order for the 2021 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are lots of questions regarding 2020 draft cancellation in the queue. I’ll start by saying Idon’t think it’l happen, that it creates too many logistial problems for the following year to be worth MLB cramming two draft classes into one year so they can play one year’s worth of bonuses for two years of talent. I think cancelling the draft is one of many possible things the league has indeed discussed and that it was floated to see how everyone would respond, including the MLBPA, just in case it presents MLB with the most cost-effective course of action.

Mac: Does ZiPS come with standard deviations? If so who has the largest assuming you’re able to leave playing time out of equation (Otherwise it would just be the large difference between healthy Trout and out for the season Trout)?

Dan Szymborski: Happy Thursday!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t specifically spit out a standard deviation, but I do it from the other side: specific events and the probability of those (like a .300 BA, 40 HR, etc)

Dan Szymborski: And I have projectile percentages in beta right now as I work out the kinks, mainly due to defensive volatility and projections

LAXTONTO: Can you do my online recordings for my grad students for me?

Aceman: Dynasty

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone – going to give the queue a bit more time to fill up. Will get started in a few minutes!

JR: Given the Marlins much improved farm system, how many seasons (assuming this one happens) do you think before Miami is a viable postseason contender? Or at least playing meaningful games after June?

Meg Rowley: Heck, they might be playing meaningful games this June (please let’s be playing baseball in June!) – a shortened season can make things pretttty weird. But realistically, I’d say two more. And a lot depends on them being willing to spend money, which…

Josh: I know there are more important issues than baseball, but how do you think shortened seasons will look similar to the strike-shortened seasons of the past?

Meg Rowley: I think we might end up with some real funky playoff teams if things keep dwindling, though that likely manifests more as surprising Wild Card teams, or a few of the more coin flippy divisions going to the opposite side of the coin than we expected.

Meg Rowley: The Yankees are still good. The Brave are still good. And the longer they’re on break, the more dudes they get back.