Dan Szymborski: Uh oh

Dan Szymborski: Just letting the queue fill up a bit more. The post wasn’t going live so I had to re-do it.

Dan Szymborski: We’re going to start off at about 12:30 PM

Dan Szymborski: Maybe earlier if you guys build up a mighty buffer.

Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get this strangely scheduled party started.

Magic Kingdome: I don’t feel tardy

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! I’m on the couch and Scout is on her bed eyeballing my lunch, which is leftover meat I grilled last night

Kiley McDaniel: (andouille sausage, shrimp, chicken thighs for those curious)

Kiley McDaniel: I would normally link to all the stuff I wrote the last week but I was commanded to not do stuff this week

Kiley McDaniel: but here’s the FG prospects page where all our stuff is, including the graduation monitor so you know when guys will graduate from our lists: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: and also Eric and I have quietly done lots of work on the 2020 draft rankings, which one scout called “absurd” yesterday and I wasn’t sure if that was good or bad: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: showcase season has begun, as Eric was at the first event of the summer and I’m going to the next two (PDP and college team USA)

Dan Szymborski: “Dan Szymborski is chatting now.”

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD HE ISN’T PANIC

Dan Szymborski: Now I am.

The Other Dave: Is there ANY hope left for the Reds at this point? Or should they start exploring some trade scenarios? It just feels like if everything clicks, they should be a very good team. They just can’t seem to win any 1-run games.

Dan Szymborski: It kinda sucks, but their poor fortune is baked into the cake.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they’re 8 games under their Pythag. But the thing is, you don’t get those games back. You expect them to match their Pythags going forward, not get an extra helping from the good luck carnitas.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and greetings from Wellfleet, Massachusetts, where I’m just beginning my 10-day stay  — working the rest of the week, then on vacation — but contending with some nasty weather that temporarily knocked out our Internet connection this morning. Hopefully it holds out for the next 90 minutes or so; check @jay_jaffe on Twitter in case there’s a sudden gap in the conversation here.

Justin: I know it’s early, but what’s wrong with Machado? You mentioned on the pod Manny is not doing damage with 1st pitches? Anything else you’ve noticed? As a Padres fan I hope you don’t have to write a piece about his struggles anytime soon…

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really have a good answer for this yet; he’s on my list of players to look into, but something else usually pops up, perhaps because I’m still not clear about what’s going on. He’s barreling the ball less but still averaging above 90 mph in terms of EV. There’s a big gap between his xwOBA (.375) and wOBA (.330) despite slightly better sprint speed, so it may be something of a run of bad luck.

v2micca: We have generally examined the amount of run support that a Pitcher receives.  But is there value in more closely examining the defensive support for his specific innings.  Instead of looking at a team’s aggregate UZR, DRS, and BABIP allowed, instead breaking it down to the UZR, DRS, and BABIP allowed for that pitcher’s specific innings?  I just wonder when we see a pitcher under or over performing his peripherals for a stretch how much it might correlate to his defense over or under performing their aggregate defensive metrics for his innings during that period.

Jay Jaffe: given how sketchy defensive metrics are in small sample sizes, I am skeptical that working with UZR and DRS in such increments would give you more signal than noise. BABIP, sequencing, and batted ball info (including Statcast now) give us a lot of information to help tease out the gap between a pitcher’s actual and expected results.

Brood550: If and when the Mets go into sale mode.  Who’s untouchable?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL where Scout is passed out next to me from a busy day of napping. Some quick self-promotion before we get started

Kiley McDaniel: Last week was draft week! You can find all the draft content in the widget on the home page https://www.fangraphs.com/ or our up to the second rankings of everyone and everything at https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=…

Kiley McDaniel: we’re rolling out some of our favorite clips of draft video at our instagram @fangraphs but my personal favorite is also on twitter: Zach Thompson’s 3000+ rpm curveball:

Kiley McDaniel: and lastly, so those interested, we have a new top 100 and all the team lists have movement, graduations taken off, draft (all top 10 rounders or confirmed later signs) are added. I would guess that comes out this week since we’re just doing clerical stuff now like filling out blurbs and whatnot. Possibly Monday.

Kiley McDaniel: Eric is at PG National this week and I’ll be hitting the summer circuit starting a few weeks from now, so if you’re 2020 draft curious, peek THE BOARD for updates as we learn them https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Meg Rowley: Hello everyone, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: A few things to highlight in case you missed them during our very busy week of draft coverage.

Meg Rowley: FanGraphs is headed to Cleveland for a Very Special Event the weekend before the All-Star Game.

Meg Rowley: Details are here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…

Meg Rowley: We will have a fun panel of fun folks, which is why tickets are $15 (free with FanGraphs membership).

Meg Rowley: Hope to see everyone (or errr 90 of you) there.

Dan Szymborski: The prophecy of the chat has been fulfilled.

Roberto: Brandon Lowe has been fun to watch, but there must be some regression on the way, right? What’s a realistic expectation for his ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I actually had a dream about Brandon Lowe the other night that had no extra base hits and I decided to model ISO by BMI out of curiosity

Dan Szymborski: But for some reason, Lowe was 6-6 and huge in my dream, which he is not.

Dan Szymborski: The power is likely real, but I expect the BA to come down somewhat

Impatient Manchild: Where is the Szymborski prospect list?!?!