Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to The Chat That Almost Wasn’t. I was scheduled to appear on MLB Now today, with a production meeting in this time slot but last night’s Yankees rainout led to a doubleheader whose opener will be aired on MLB Network, consigning my planned soft on this weekend’s Hall of Fame inductions to the vapors.

Anyway, lots on tap. I’ll be appearing tonight in NYC as part of the Varsity Letters tribute to the late Jim Bouton (https://lpr.com/lpr_events/gelf-magazine-varsity-letters-july-18-2019/). After driving up to Cooperstown tomorrow, I’ll be signing and selling copies of The Cooperstown Casebook on Saturday (https://www.facebook.com/events/2256500964601525/), and then speaking at a SABR meeting on Sunday evening (

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Eppler: Have you met Tim Mead? Any first impressions?

Jay Jaffe: I have not, but i’m hoping to this weekend. I have heard nothing but great things about him in his capacity with the Angels, and I hope that translates to his work at the Hall, but i have no idea where he stands on some of the issues I hold dear as compared to his predecessor. (Hmmm, that gives me an idea…)

Guest: Wow, I just looked at Xander Boegarts’ DRS numbers and he has been worst in baseball bad every year by a wide margin. Any idea what’s going on here? UZR thinks he’s neutral.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, -14 DRS compared to 0.4 UZR, and a similar contrast last year. First and foremost, let’s remember that UZR specifically does not account for shifts (which are plays made out of zone), and also has a lot of regression built into it.  The Red Sox have yielded a .307 wOBA on shifts, the 8th-worst in MLB. So maybe some of it is that. And some of it must be range, but I’m not totally sure.

Just for FanGraphs: I was reading a BBC article on Instagram because I saw Mike Trout’s name, and was happy to see you quoted heavily as an expert on Mike Trout’s accomplishments.  How much attention do you think baseball will have in Europe thanks to the London games

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, sorry you guys had to wait. Wrapped a call about the international stuff just now, let’ get to it…

Eric A Longenhagen: Only big thing to point to is that we put spin rate for most of the 2019 draft picks on The Board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

CJ: Michael Baumann has been really good in Double A, including a no hitter last night. What is his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s working really heavily with his fastball and a harder cutter (new pitch this year) while other pitches take a back seat. There may be a repertoire depth issue that makes it hard for him to be a traditional starter, but he looks like a good big league arm of some kind now. He’s broken out, certainly, I just wouldn’t expect him to be a star rotation piece.

CJ: Any DSL guys that you are excited about that may not be well known?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s relatively no lag on when we know about someone and stick them on The Board, so almost everyone we have info on is on there. I have two more Blue Jays DSL names I need to ask around on (Montero and D’Ozoria). I guess Alvin Guzman is one we have stuffed really good

Meg Rowley: Hi all! We’ll get started in just a second. Allow me to fetch a glass of water and issue some editing marching orders.

Meg Rowley: Ok, water acquired.

Meg Rowley: Couple of links of interest before we get started.

Meg Rowley: As you’ve probably seen, Kiley is off and running with the Trade Value Series.

Meg Rowley: Today’s installment can be found here, and has links to the prior entries: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

Meg Rowley: Also, RosterResource depth charts are now at FanGraphs!

Dan Szymborski: Release the Chaten!

Roberto Beers: The lull in HS content has left me drifting to other F2P games, namely TFT. Have you played? Thoughts on the AutoChess genre?

Dan Szymborski: Intrigued by it, but haven’t dipped my toes in yet. HS has been fun!

Joe: Do you have updated ZIPS numbers for Tatis? I know his babip can’t stay this good so what are realistic expectations for him?

Dan Szymborski: You should see a WAR update in the trade value series. I may do something more substantial before the offseason.

Matt: Please confirm that your name is not in fact, “Szymbobski”

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. One link for you this morning:

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I podded about Futures Game. It’s a long episode in which we go over our notes and talk about Board changes. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdo…

Nick: I know you guys weren’t excited about the Braves draft after day two. With the six HS picks they’ve now signed from rounds 11-19, how significantly does that change things?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat, they’re adding a bunch of 35+ FV types. Depth is nice, now they need to develop those players.

Chris: The Yankee fans sure think Clint Frazier is worth any player… What’s a realistic one for one trade comp for their fans

Eric A Longenhagen: I have Frazier 50’d, so I think he’s a real piece. Would he, alone, net someone like Matt Boyd or White Merrifield who has 3ish years of control left? Probably not, but he’s a great start.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat. Just moments ago I filed my lengthy tribute to Jim Bouton, who passed away yesterday [Update: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-author-everyman-hero-jim-bouton-1939-2019/]. He had a massive impact not only on the culture at large, but on me personally, as I crossed paths with him several times. Thus I’m more than a little verklempt. I’ll begin the chat in  few minutes, after I take a breather and order lunch. Your patience is appreciated.

Xolo: How much do you think Syndergaard might bouce back by simply getting away from the Mets?

Jay Jaffe: Given the state of their wretched defense, which ranks last in the NL in UZR and Defensive Efficiency, quite a bit. For one thing, he’s got a 3.98 FIP compared to a 4.68 ERA, and additionally has received below-average pitch framing. For another, the atmosphere in that clubhouse may well be a factor, particularly considering the recent change in pitching coaches. I’d imagine he pitches much better if he changes scenery, and I do think that if the Mets commit to dealing him, he would be the deadline’s top target, ahead of Bumgarner.

Dave from Modesto: I apologize if this seems combative, but why did you feel the need to bring up “service time shenanigans” in the first sentence of your article about the Home Run Derby? And do you legitimately feel that the only reason Alonso wasn’t promoted last season was service time concerns? (defense, playing time available given other guys on the roster, 40-man concerns played no role?)

Jay Jaffe: Major League Baseball and its teams use the All-Star week festivities to highlight the product they’re offering. I think a marquee event during which people are taking stock of the sport most pressing issues — the CBA, the home run tide, etc — is a perfect time to highlight its efforts to undermine its own product. And no, I don’t believe there’s any other credible explanation for Alonso’s belated arrival outside of financial ones, given that he’s proven to be defensively adequate.

J: Highly recommend Xifu over on Livingston and Nevins for lunch. Don’t think they deliver but it’s like $5 for a huge spicy and sour soup with 10 dumplings.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, Scout is napping nearby and I’m back from a week on the road.

Kiley McDaniel: we have lots of futures game thoughts coming soon, including high speed video of every pitcher, a review podcast and updates to our rankings from futures game observations

Kiley McDaniel: the most interesting pitch in slo-mo was the changeup/screwball of Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles, as seen in this tweet:

Kiley McDaniel: and also I just saw college Team USA so we’ve got a much better idea of the 2020 and beyond draft classes now, so any questions about specific rankings can likely be fielded by THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Charles: When is the top 50 most valuable trade chips coming out?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from North Carolina! Following around college Team USA and the Cubans for a few more days before I head to Cleveland for the Futures Game and our FG live event

Kiley McDaniel: some details on the saturday event, if you’d like to attend: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…

Kiley McDaniel: here our J2 coverage links in one tweet:

Kiley McDaniel: the J2 edition of THE BOARD has confirmed, non VZ bonuses and the minor league version has all 35+ connected players (even if they haven’t signed yet) added to team lists

Kiley McDaniel: including Jasson Dominguez at 61 overall and 1st on the NYY list

Kiley McDaniel: lastly, we have some fun stuff planned with the high speed video and Eric has seen Greinke, deGrom and Kershaw, so here’s his article trying to figure out other guys that do stuff similarly to Kershaw using the video: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-some-clayton-kershaws-to-scale/

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: A few bits of housekeeping before we kick off.

Meg Rowley: Tickets are still available for our Cleveland event, but they are going fast.

Meg Rowley: They can be purchased here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/fangraphs-cleveland-all-star-e…

Meg Rowley: It should be a very fun time, and someone (read: Kiley) is likely to say something goofy, so if you’re in the area, join us!

Meg Rowley: We will sell tickets at the door. Those sales will be cash only.