Jay Jaffe: Hi folks, and welcome to today’s chat, the last one I’ll be doing before heading up to Cape Cod for a week and a half.

Jay Jaffe: it’s an annual tradition in the Jaffe-Span household, spearheaded by my awesome mother-in-law, Paula Span (who writes for the New York Times). I’ll be doing at least one chat and filing a few articles from up on the Cape (Wellfleet, to be more specific), and I just booked a very cool interview to conduct while I’m up there. Also scheduled to see at least one Cape Cod League game, which should be fun.

Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, let’s get to…

Fred: Does Stanton opt out if he comes back and plays to projections in the second half and in 2020, or does he have to get back to MVP-type levels?

Jay Jaffe: If Stanton were to opt out, he’d be 30 years old and bypassing a minimum guarantee of $218 million over his next seven seasons, including the final buyout. Given last year’s dip in productivity, this year’s absence, and the industry’s changing free agent dynamic, right now I have a hard time imagining he’s going to do better than that, particularly as most of the other situations to which he’d be checking in lack the guaranteed commitment to compete that comes with being a Yankee.

Bread Gardner: I don’t think the HOF has anyone representing the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League (AAGPBL); do you think it should?  Do you think a woman will ever break into MLB or MiLB?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. I was trying to finishing editing our podcast we recorded last night about the first 10 rounds but wasn’t able to get it down. Should go up shortly after this is done. about 85 minutes with 2-3 minutes of our thoughts on each club, we’ll throw in time stamps so you can finally know how much we hate your team

Kiley McDaniel: any of the rest of our draft content interest you? it’s in the widget for draft week on the mainpage at https://www.fangraphs.com/

Kiley McDaniel: and pretty much anything else you’ll need can be found at THE BOARD, which was up to the second with who has been drafted where, but round 11 just started so now I need to go update that after this chat as well

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: To your questions:

LudeBurger: Kiley, dude, bro, woah. How? Man, you’re a monster for doing this chat after Monday’s epoque

Kiley McDaniel: Once you don’t sleep that much, spewing out thoughts in all mediums just kinda runs together

Meg Rowley: Hey pals. We’ll get started in just a minute.

Meg Rowley: Ok

Meg Rowley: Hello!

Meg Rowley: Welcome the chat. Appreciate everyone’s patience.

Meg Rowley: Before I take questions, I’ll just highlight our Draft Week coverage generally, and today’s recap of yesterday’s draft action specifically: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-review/

Meg Rowley: Also, follow the FG Prospects account, where Eric and Kiley are reacting to Day 2 https://twitter.com/FG_Prospects

Dan Szymborski: It is noon. It is a time for chats.

My name is Judge…: Now that the White Sox are in second place should they pull the trigger and start calling up guys from their farm system to push them closer to a wild car?  i of course am referring mostly to Alcides Escobar.
BCC:  Josh Nelson

Dan Szymborski: ALCIDES KNOWS MORE ABOUT RINGS THAN JOSTENS

Mooseknuckle curves: Can Erick Fedde become a viable starter for the Nationals?  He hasn’t gone deep into a game yet, but has avoided giving up the big inning so far.

Dan Szymborski: I think he can be. The Nats really were too optimistic about counting on both Anibal and Heckickson.

Captain Ron: Dan, what the hell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I’ve got regionals on the tube but may sneak out to Extended in about an hour, so I’ll try to move through your draft questions as fast as possible.

Tommy N.: Chances Vaughn can be serviceable at a position other than 1B?

Eric A Longenhagen: slim

Teddy: The mock mentioned Lodolo to Atlanta at 9 because it was a good value. Was that you and Kiley’s opinion, or do you think that is Atlanta’s opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: both, we think, but I expect we’ll have a different name there Monday.

Steven Tobolowsky: Are the Tigers connected to Michigan LHP Tommy Henry in any way?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I’m in a spicy mood today thanks in part to having spent several hours listening and transcribing Tuesday evening’s cringeworthy Pirates broadcast while Derek Dietrich hit three home runs  (article forthcoming). That and the leftovers from dinner at Han Dynasty which will constitute today’s lunch. Anyway, on with the show…

fan of graphs: hypothetically, if the padres were to shut down chris paddack. what functionally happens? does he remain on the 25 man roster and just doesn’t pitch? does he get put on an inactive list? sent down?

Jay Jaffe: It would depend upon the date. Assuming the Padres wait until September, they would have the roster space just to let him be. Otherwise, they could option him (which would have service time ramifications and be kind of a dick move) or place him on the IL with, say, shoulder fatigue,

Birch: Any thoughts on Bridich’s comments about beat writers?

Jay Jaffe: Travis Sawchik and Dan Symborski saved us the trouble

Jay Jaffe:

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, I’m back home and just got back from lunch. Scout is in the backyard policing the squirrel/chipmunk population and occasionally glaring at me through the window when she wants a play partner.

Kiley McDaniel: Today Eric and I published our latest mock, this time the full 78 picks that go on day one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-two-rounds/

Kiley McDaniel: With that nav bar at the top of the page you can see what else we have planned for draft week, including a few things that are draft-related that aren’t up there

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, your questions about which player we prefer at this moment for the draft, or any future draft, or for July 2 or for the minors can all be answered at THE BOARD, which is quickly reaching ludicrous size: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0

RP: If the Phillies go underslot for Hoese or Henderson, any names they could float to 71? That’s a long way.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that would be tough. We don’t think they cut much from that pick and often when the savings+overage is about $1M and the gap to the next pick is long, it doesn’t all get spent on the 2nd pick. You’d need to target 4-6 players that all have a chance to get to 71 to have any real chance of getting one there. Often just taking what gets to you for slot is a better plan