Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and greetings from Wellfleet, Massachusetts, where I’m just beginning my 10-day stay  — working the rest of the week, then on vacation — but contending with some nasty weather that temporarily knocked out our Internet connection this morning. Hopefully it holds out for the next 90 minutes or so; check @jay_jaffe on Twitter in case there’s a sudden gap in the conversation here.

Justin: I know it’s early, but what’s wrong with Machado? You mentioned on the pod Manny is not doing damage with 1st pitches? Anything else you’ve noticed? As a Padres fan I hope you don’t have to write a piece about his struggles anytime soon…

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really have a good answer for this yet; he’s on my list of players to look into, but something else usually pops up, perhaps because I’m still not clear about what’s going on. He’s barreling the ball less but still averaging above 90 mph in terms of EV. There’s a big gap between his xwOBA (.375) and wOBA (.330) despite slightly better sprint speed, so it may be something of a run of bad luck.

v2micca: We have generally examined the amount of run support that a Pitcher receives.  But is there value in more closely examining the defensive support for his specific innings.  Instead of looking at a team’s aggregate UZR, DRS, and BABIP allowed, instead breaking it down to the UZR, DRS, and BABIP allowed for that pitcher’s specific innings?  I just wonder when we see a pitcher under or over performing his peripherals for a stretch how much it might correlate to his defense over or under performing their aggregate defensive metrics for his innings during that period.

Jay Jaffe: given how sketchy defensive metrics are in small sample sizes, I am skeptical that working with UZR and DRS in such increments would give you more signal than noise. BABIP, sequencing, and batted ball info (including Statcast now) give us a lot of information to help tease out the gap between a pitcher’s actual and expected results.

Brood550: If and when the Mets go into sale mode.  Who’s untouchable?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL where Scout is passed out next to me from a busy day of napping. Some quick self-promotion before we get started

Kiley McDaniel: Last week was draft week! You can find all the draft content in the widget on the home page https://www.fangraphs.com/ or our up to the second rankings of everyone and everything at https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=…

Kiley McDaniel: we’re rolling out some of our favorite clips of draft video at our instagram @fangraphs but my personal favorite is also on twitter: Zach Thompson’s 3000+ rpm curveball:

Kiley McDaniel: and lastly, so those interested, we have a new top 100 and all the team lists have movement, graduations taken off, draft (all top 10 rounders or confirmed later signs) are added. I would guess that comes out this week since we’re just doing clerical stuff now like filling out blurbs and whatnot. Possibly Monday.

Kiley McDaniel: Eric is at PG National this week and I’ll be hitting the summer circuit starting a few weeks from now, so if you’re 2020 draft curious, peek THE BOARD for updates as we learn them https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Meg Rowley: Hello everyone, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: A few things to highlight in case you missed them during our very busy week of draft coverage.

Meg Rowley: FanGraphs is headed to Cleveland for a Very Special Event the weekend before the All-Star Game.

Meg Rowley: Details are here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…

Meg Rowley: We will have a fun panel of fun folks, which is why tickets are $15 (free with FanGraphs membership).

Meg Rowley: Hope to see everyone (or errr 90 of you) there.

Dan Szymborski: The prophecy of the chat has been fulfilled.

Roberto: Brandon Lowe has been fun to watch, but there must be some regression on the way, right? What’s a realistic expectation for his ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I actually had a dream about Brandon Lowe the other night that had no extra base hits and I decided to model ISO by BMI out of curiosity

Dan Szymborski: But for some reason, Lowe was 6-6 and huge in my dream, which he is not.

Dan Szymborski: The power is likely real, but I expect the BA to come down somewhat

Impatient Manchild: Where is the Szymborski prospect list?!?!

Jay Jaffe: Hi folks, and welcome to today’s chat, the last one I’ll be doing before heading up to Cape Cod for a week and a half.

Jay Jaffe: it’s an annual tradition in the Jaffe-Span household, spearheaded by my awesome mother-in-law, Paula Span (who writes for the New York Times). I’ll be doing at least one chat and filing a few articles from up on the Cape (Wellfleet, to be more specific), and I just booked a very cool interview to conduct while I’m up there. Also scheduled to see at least one Cape Cod League game, which should be fun.

Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, let’s get to…

Fred: Does Stanton opt out if he comes back and plays to projections in the second half and in 2020, or does he have to get back to MVP-type levels?

Jay Jaffe: If Stanton were to opt out, he’d be 30 years old and bypassing a minimum guarantee of $218 million over his next seven seasons, including the final buyout. Given last year’s dip in productivity, this year’s absence, and the industry’s changing free agent dynamic, right now I have a hard time imagining he’s going to do better than that, particularly as most of the other situations to which he’d be checking in lack the guaranteed commitment to compete that comes with being a Yankee.

Bread Gardner: I don’t think the HOF has anyone representing the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League (AAGPBL); do you think it should?  Do you think a woman will ever break into MLB or MiLB?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. I was trying to finishing editing our podcast we recorded last night about the first 10 rounds but wasn’t able to get it down. Should go up shortly after this is done. about 85 minutes with 2-3 minutes of our thoughts on each club, we’ll throw in time stamps so you can finally know how much we hate your team

Kiley McDaniel: any of the rest of our draft content interest you? it’s in the widget for draft week on the mainpage at https://www.fangraphs.com/

Kiley McDaniel: and pretty much anything else you’ll need can be found at THE BOARD, which was up to the second with who has been drafted where, but round 11 just started so now I need to go update that after this chat as well

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: To your questions:

LudeBurger: Kiley, dude, bro, woah. How? Man, you’re a monster for doing this chat after Monday’s epoque

Kiley McDaniel: Once you don’t sleep that much, spewing out thoughts in all mediums just kinda runs together

Meg Rowley: Hey pals. We’ll get started in just a minute.

Meg Rowley: Ok

Meg Rowley: Hello!

Meg Rowley: Welcome the chat. Appreciate everyone’s patience.

Meg Rowley: Before I take questions, I’ll just highlight our Draft Week coverage generally, and today’s recap of yesterday’s draft action specifically: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-review/

Meg Rowley: Also, follow the FG Prospects account, where Eric and Kiley are reacting to Day 2 https://twitter.com/FG_Prospects