Archive for Daily Graphings

Tony Barnette has been a pleasant surprise in Texas. Signed in December after spending several seasons in Japan, the 32-year-old right-hander is performing well out of a Rangers bullpen that is statistically the worst in the American League. He’s been especially sharp as of late. Over his last eight appearances, Barnette has allowed just four hits and one unearned run in 13 innings.

Drafted by the Diamondbacks out of Arizona State in 2006, Barnette changed continents four years later after a 14-win season in Triple-A. The reason was simple.

“They wanted me,” said Barnette. “The Diamondbacks didn’t protect me and I wasn’t taken in the Rule 5, so I was looking at going back to the minors. I was at the stage of my life where you think you’re on the cusp of the big leagues and all of a sudden the powers that be say, ‘No you’re not.’ It was basically, ‘You’re welcome to stay, but if you want a change of scenery, good luck on your travels.’ Japan made the offer, and I decided to pack up and take my chances.” Read the rest of this entry »

Jonah Keri and Dave Cameron at the Wilbur Theatre (photo by Michelle Jay).

Last night, a collection of the Boston area’s most notable analysts and writers — plus a few guests from elsewhere, too — made their way to the Wilbur Theatre as a part of the Pitch Talks series. The night involved stories from former major-league pitcher Bill Lee, insight from Boston Red Sox general manager Mike Hazen, and riveting analysis about the state of the sport itself. One of the topics discussed by several of the local beat writers was the direction of the coverage of the game.

“It’s a way to connect with fans personally that you don’t get very often,” said Evan Drellich, the Red Sox beat writer for the Boston Herald. “It’s nice to hear what’s on people’s minds, and try to give an answer. The feeling you always have walking away is we could have gone on talking more, or you wish you could have gone down this road. These discussions are just the tip of the iceberg in all subjects.”

While the panel of Red Sox writers (Alex Speier, Peter Abraham, Dan Shaughnessy, Jen McCaffrey, and Evan Drellich) spoke about the state of the Red Sox — from the lack of dominance of David Price to the recent trade of Aaron Hill — they also touched on the way social media’s presence has affected the way games are covered.

One topic in particular was the lack of diversity in the field of sports writing. Shaughnessy pointed out there are no full-time female sportswriters currently at the Boston Globe, and McCaffrey was the only woman analyst who spoke during the four segments at the event.

McCaffrey, who writes for MassLive.com, also discussed the way social media has changed the way news is reported. The trade for Hill by Boston just a half hour before the event began was an example of how news breaks faster, with Drellich mentioning during the panel that he had missed the trade and within minutes of it happening, found out Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was already conducting a conference call.

The panel also took questions from fans, which ranged from further discussion about diversity in the media, to why the credentialing process in Boston is more difficult than elsewhere, to what the Red Sox can do at the trade deadline. With the flood of mentions and questions on social media, being able to hear analysts discuss questions with audience members was a refreshing and different experience.

“This is one of the more fun parts of the job,” said FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron. “I think sometimes the commentary on Twitter or online can be a little bit negative, people like to give you more negative than positive feedback, so it’s nice to have these events where you can say ‘Oh, people actually do enjoy our work and what we do’ and get together as a community.”

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Three seasons ago, Matt Harvey was one of the best pitchers in all of major-league baseball. Over 26 starts, his 2.00 FIP was the best among all starters. His 2.27 ERA placed behind only Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez’s marks by that measure. Despite a relative deficit of innings, Harvey’s 6.5 WAR was third among pitchers behind only Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright.

The reason for that low-ish innings total? A partially torn UCL that ended Harvey’s season in August and ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Rehab kept Harvey off the mound for the entire 2014 campaign, as well, but he came back strong in 2015, posting a 2.71 ERA (82 ERA-) and 3.05 FIP (80 FIP-), and proved instrumental in getting the New York Mets into the World Series.

The 2016 campaign has been an up-and-down one for Harvey — and will feature much more down than up going forward, as reports indicate that the right-hander will undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. For the Mets, the loss of Harvey is a threat to their postseason odds. For Harvey himself, it’s a threat to his career.

On May 20, Eno Sarris wondered, What’s Wrong with Matt Harvey? His conclusion: that maybe the slider wasn’t quite as good as it had been, by movement or location, and that a little bit of work on that pitch might right the ship. For a time after that, Harvey appeared to have gotten things in order. In five starts beginning May 30, Harvey went at least six innings in every start, striking out 25 against five walks with a 2.25 ERA and 2.08 FIP. His strikeouts were down a bit from last year in that stretch (25% to 21%), but his walks also decreased (7% to 4%).

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Yesterday afternoon, Dylan Floro made his major-league debut. Anyone who has ever pitched has pictured what it would be like to stand on a major-league mound for the first time. The dream of striking out the first batter you face. The fear of giving up a home run on your first pitch. There are countless different ways to envision that first trip to the mound playing out, but I somehow doubt Floro ever pictured this happening on the ninth pitch of his major-league career:

That’s a lead-footed future Hall of Famer attempting a steal of second to draw a throw and set up the current greatest position player for a steal of home. That really happened. Albert Pujols stole second and Mike Trout stole home, because in baseball anything is possible. But part of what stood out about this play, beyond the fact that Mike Freaking Trout stole home, is that it served as a reminder that Trout has re-emerged as one of the best base-stealers in the game.

Yesterday, Jeff Sullivan outlined adjustments Trout is making at the plate which have enabled him to sustain his mind-boggling consistent run of greatness — a run which is now in its fifth (!) season. The fact that he’s continually evolving, adjusting, and growing as a player is just one part of what has made Trout such a joy to watch. One of those well-documented changes for Trout came when he lost a bit of speed after swiping 82 bags across his first two full seasons, 2012 and 2013. During the next two years, he didn’t steal nearly as many bases, but the loss in base-running value was offset by the fact that he simultaneously grew into a significant increase in power. 

Slowing down while adding power in his 20s — even his early 20s — was a logical enough progression that we came to accept Trout’s new norm. But now something strange is happening.

Base-stealing Mike Trout is back? Fifteen stolen bases through 86 games puts him on pace for a 28-stolen-base season — more stolen bases than he’s recorded in the past two seasons combined. That’s still not quite the rapid pace of his early seasons, but it’s a remarkably surprising development, nonetheless.

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Jay Bruce is going to be traded. That’s a near-certainty. He’s the only player on this year’s market to be (almost) traded not once, but twice by the team for which he still plays. The rumors have been persisting for more than a year now. Bruce is in the last guaranteed year of his contract, the Reds were never in contention, and he’s rebuilt his value with a great first half at the plate. Already, we’ve heard Bruce linked again to the Blue Jays, alongside the Indians, Nationals, Dodgers, and others. It will be an upset if he finishes the season wearing a Cincinnati uniform.

That much about Jay Bruce, we can be confident. We can be confident that he’s been a good hitter in the past, we can be confident that he’s been a good hitter in the present, and we can be confident that he’s likely to be moved within the next month. There exists an area of Bruce’s story that’s far more murky, though, and one’s perception of that area of Bruce’s game goes a long way towards one’s evaluation of Bruce. Despite a 120 wRC+ this season, Bruce has been worth 0.0 WAR, according to our calculations and 0.4 WAR by Baseball-Reference’s, and that’s all due to his defensive numbers.

The defensive numbers hate Jay Bruce this year. Ultimate Zone Rating calls him the season’s worst defensive right fielder, among 21 qualifiers. Defensive Runs Saved has him in a tie for last, with J.D. Martinez. Those negative marks stretch back a couple years now, but then you get recent tweets like this from Jeff Passan:

Bruce is 29 and has very reasonable club option at $13M for 2017. D metrics don’t like him, but two scouts say he’s avg to slightly > in RF.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 1, 2016

And quotes like this out of Buster Olney columns:

Bruce’s defensive metrics are not good, but some scouts believe that he’s better than those numbers indicate, and wonder if his skills are properly reflected in the stats — which some evaluators believe may be inexact.

And you begin to sense a divide on the evaluation of Bruce’s defensive ability. And it’s an important divide, because a Bruce with average-to-better defense is a useful player. A Bruce closer to what the defensive metrics suggest is a replacement-level designated hitter. Those two players fetch far different returns in a mid-season trade.

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Six weeks ago, August Fagerstrom wrote about how Matt Bush’s fastball approximates Aroldis Chapman’s in terms of velocity and spin rate. Not much has changed. The Texas Rangers reclamation project — Bush was in prison and hadn’t pitched for four years — is still throwing heat. This past weekend the 30-year-old right-hander sat 98-99 in a scoreless inning at Fenway Park.

Much has been made of the former first-overall pick’s fall from grace and the Rangers’ willingness to give him another chance. (The attention is warranted: Bush’s substance-abuse and legal issues are serious matters.) Far less attention has been paid to the arsenal and mindset he brings to the mound. With that in mind, I sat down with Bush to talk pitching on the Fourth of July.

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Bush on why he’s having success: “I think it’s my arm action. My fastball has a lot of life to it. I’m also doing a good job of locating; I’m hitting my spots down in the zone. A lot of times it looks like the ball is going to be down and out of the zone, but it has extra life to it, which keeps it there in the zone. Other than that, I have an understanding that it’s not easy to hit a pitch that’s thrown as hard as I throw. I’m going out there with confidence.

“My spin rate is 2,500-something. Someone had mentioned it to me, so I looked into it and was pretty surprised to find out that it’s one of the highest in the game. That’s an indicator of why my fastball is tough to square up. I’m not afraid to go right after hitters, because with that spin, the ball has life. It’s not straight. You also don’t have very much time to pull the trigger. Read the rest of this entry »

Beginning last season, there’s been a raging debate concerning the identity of baseball’s best shortstop. In fairness, I guess, people have probably been arguing about this forever, but now there’s this outstanding, new, young crop, and it’s hard to believe they all exist. There are veterans in there like Troy Tulowitzki and Brandon Crawford, but you’ve also got Carlos Correa. There’s Francisco Lindor, and there’s Xander Bogaerts. Corey Seager! And maybe we’re supposed to include Manny Machado. There are so many good shortstops. There are so many good shortstops that I’ve left several out.

I’m very comfortable asserting this: Whoever might be the best shortstop in baseball, I believe it is not Aledmys Diaz. Diaz isn’t a premium baserunner, nor is he a premium defender. Remember, he wasn’t even supposed to be in the majors. But here’s a fact for you — Machado leads all players listed as shortstops in wRC+. There in second place, trailing by just five points, is Diaz. He leads everybody else. And he’s officially now a National League All-Star.

It comes off like a classic case of the Cardinals. In the middle of last summer, when Diaz was in the minors, he was removed from the 40-man roster. Anyone, at that point, could’ve had him. The Cardinals brought him back. The rest is history, and the present.

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So many good players right now. Let me fluff that up. So many great players right now. For Major League Baseball, it really is a kind of embarrassment of riches. Dave just wrote about Josh Donaldson earlier. He’s great. Kris Bryant? He’s great. Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve — all great. These are just great position players, of course. These players, and so many more, deserve all the attention they can get. But still, there’s Mike Trout. The current leader in position-player WAR is Mike Trout. Over the past calendar year, the leader in WAR is Mike Trout. Going forward, the leader in projected WAR is Mike Trout. Mike Trout Mike Trout Mike Trout. It’s hard to believe we ever stop thinking about Mike Trout.

Or maybe it’s not? Everything good in our lives, we take for granted. At least, given enough time. And while Trout isn’t boring, consistency is boring, and since becoming a regular Trout hasn’t posted a wRC+ under 167 or over 176. At some point we all run out of original ways to remind ourselves that Trout is fantastic. His supporting cast doesn’t help. Now it seems like 80% of conversations about Trout concern whether the Angels should trade him.

I can’t speak to the real purpose of Valentine’s Day, but it functions as a day of appreciation. Not that you should require a scheduled push to appreciate your partner, but, again, we take good things for granted, because it’s how we’re programmed. A Mike Trout FanGraphs post is similar. Take a minute. Think about Trout. And, wouldn’t you know it, but the man is evolving. He’s not as static as he seems.

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The All-Star break is beckoning as we come down the homestretch of our position-by-position look at hitter contact quality. We will again use granular ball-in-play data such as BIP frequencies, exit speed and launch angle to perform the analysis. Two positions to go. Last time, it was center fielders; today, it’s the right fielders’ turn.

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When I first lay eyes on a prospect, especially one who has a unique physical build, I search my mind’s eye for precedent. Making a “body comp” is a somewhat outdated way for scouts to communicate and describe a player’s physicality to a person who has never seen that player. The advent of the internet has made this kind of communication obsolete (why bother telling you that I think Jeff Hoffman is built like Jamal Crawford when I can just show you a video of Hoffman pitching and you can see it for yourself?) and now I mostly make body comps as an personal exercise to help project a player’s physical trajectory a little more accurately.

When I first saw Tyler Glasnow, who is an ectomorphic 6-foot-8, I wracked my brain trying to find a similarly built pitcher before I gave up and moved on to small forwards. Still, I came up empty, and I ended up writing “construction crane” and “pteranodon” in my notes. Glasnow has long legs, a small torso and relatively short arms for someone his size. I’ve seen only on other pitcher (White Sox righty Alec Hansen) whose physique closely resembles his. His unique physical makeup is the foundation upon which one of baseball’s most bizarre prospects has been built and influences his entire repertoire.

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