The 2023 season seemed to be studded with stars. Two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani turned in by far his best offensive season (not to mention a very good pitching season before succumbing to injury) en route to a unanimous MVP selection. Ronald Acuña Jr. made counting stat history with the first ever 40–70 season, posting a .428 wOBA that was somehow 35 points shy of his .463 xwOBA and earning his own unanimous recognition from MVP voters. This despite playing in the same league as Mookie Betts, who had what would have been a career-best season for almost anyone else, slashing .307/.408/.579 with a career-high 39 home runs. Freddie Freeman had the best season of one of the best active careers in baseball, somehow improving on a 2022 campaign that featured a .325/.407/.511 slash line and 7.1 WAR. And I could go on — Matt Olson hit 54 home runs, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager anchored a championship lineup, Francisco Lindor quietly put up another 6.0-WAR season, and Corbin Carroll wasted no time in establishing himself as a bona fide superstar. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2021, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put on a remarkable show, hitting .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs. He finished second in MVP voting to Shohei Ohtani — perhaps the only drawback to having Ohtani in the league is he’s going to end up dwarfing about a decade of other great performances on the historical record — with a season that looks even better in context.

In the past 100 years, only 10 AL or NL players have posted full seasons with a .300/.400/.600 slash line at age 22 or younger. And this is not one of those things hitters tend to achieve before flaming out. Of those 10 players, five — Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Joe DiMaggio, and Eddie Mathews — are not only Hall of Famers but inner-circle Hall of Famers. Albert Pujols will be once he’s eligible. Alex Rodriguez would be if he’d stayed away from Biogenesis and/or not been so weird the entire sport had it out for him. That leaves three active players: Bryce Harper, Juan Soto (in the COVID-shortened 2020 season), and Vladito.

So that’s five Hall of Famers, three future Hall of Famers, plus one guy who would be in the Hall of Fame if performance were the only consideration. But what of the young Guerrero? Read the rest of this entry »

Charlie Culberson had quite the interesting 2023 season. Like many mid-30s journeyman infielders, he started the year in the minors, unable to secure a big league guarantee. After six weeks playing for the Triple-A Gwinnett Stripers (with a .489 OPS), a spot on the Braves roster opened up when Ehire Adrianza hit the injured list, bringing Culberson back to his hometown team. As an onmipositional bench player, you could generally picture him as a giant bag filled with different-sized gloves, giving starters rest late in games for a team that was kicking the snot out of their opponents every night. But surprisingly, he played exactly zero innings in the field, letting his arsenal of leather collect dust in the dugout for a month. I can’t even say for certain whether he brought a bat with him from Gwinnett; he took just one trip to the plate (hitting a single) and may very well have borrowed a teammate’s.

Such infrequent usage of a bench player is unorthodox, to say the least. Roster spots are valuable for platoons, rest days, and stuffing the bullpen with arms, so it’s not exactly great value to devote a 26-man slot to someone who appeared in just one of the 263 team innings he was around for. But the Braves have a way of doing things that works for them. They finished dead last in position players used per game, with nearly their entire starting lineup playing every game they were healthy for. Culberson remains in Atlanta’s organization on a minor league contract, and I’m sure he’d like his next big league opportunity to consist of more than a single at-bat. With a career wRC+ of 76 and negative defensive value despite playing every position, he might not get another chance to make a roster as a hitter. Instead, Culberson has decided to make a late-career switch – to the mound. Read the rest of this entry »

Jacob Hurtubise quietly had one of the best seasons in the minors in 2023. Over 455 plate appearances between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville, the left-handed-hitting outfielder slashed .330/.479/.483 with 11 doubles, 10 triples, seven home runs, and a 163 wRC+. Moreover, he had a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 16.9% walk rate to go with 45 stolen bases. Signed by the Cincinnati Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020 after four collegiate seasons at Army, the West Point graduate is arguably one of the more intriguing position player prospects in the system.

A lack of power is Hurtibise’s biggest shortcoming, but that’s not what his game is built on. As the 26-year-old Zionsville, Indiana native readily acknowledges, what he brings to the table is a combination of plus bat-to-ball skills, a keen eye, and excellent wheels. His profile is that of a potential top-of-the-order OBP machine, one who just so happens to be a high-character overachiever knocking on the door of the big leagues.

Hurtubise, who was added to Cincinnati’s 40-man roster last November, talked hitting late in the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: Your OBP has been well over .400 since you got to pro ball, and this past season it was a remarkable .479. To what do you attribute those numbers?

Jacob Hurtubise: “I think it just comes down to having a solid approach. I’ve been gifted with a good eye, and that’s been improved through repetitions and continuing to be patient at the plate. Knowing who I am as a hitter is a big part of that. I know my job. I don’t have a ton of power, so I have to do whatever I can to get on base, and from there create havoc on the basepaths.” Read the rest of this entry »

This all started because I posted some GIFs of José Ramírez struggling. When I was looking into Sonny Gray’s marvelous sweeper, I captured him victimizing Ramírez twice in one game, once swinging and once looking. That led Marquee analyst and overall good baseball follow Lance Brozdowski to note that Ramírez is one of the worst hitters in baseball when it comes to dealing with opposite-handed sweepers, a pitch that most batters handle comfortably.

That sounded like an interesting topic for an article, so I started looking into it. Maybe it’ll still be an interesting topic for an article – “never say never on January 16” is a rule that I live by when it comes to finding things to write about. But my heart wasn’t in it. As I watched video and called up stats trying to build a case for the article, I kept smiling and laughing. I don’t want to bury José Ramírez, as it turns out; I want to praise him. So that’s what this is: some observations on one of the strangest and yet greatest players of our generation. Read the rest of this entry »

Graham Pauley emerged as one of the most promising hitting prospects in the San Diego Padres system this past season. Selected in the 13th round of the 2022 draft out of Duke University, the 23-year-old left-handed-hitting third baseman slashed .308/.393/.539 with 23 home runs and an organization-best 152 wRC+ across Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne, and Double-A San Antonio.

Count Eric Longenhagen among those bullish on his potential with the bat. Earlier this month, our lead prospect analyst wrote that Pauley’s swing “is gorgeous — it often looks like a mini version of Corey Seager‘s cut, completely connected from the ground up.” He assigned Pauley a 45 FV, along with a 45/50 hit tool grade and a 50/55 game power grade.

Pauley talked hitting late in the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: You put up some pretty impressive numbers this year. What do you attribute that to?

Graham Pauley: “I credit it to the Padres, but also to myself for putting in the work, day in and day out. Being a 13th rounder, you also don’t have a ton of expectations, so you can kind of go into it with a free spirit. Over the course of my time here — ever since being drafted, including throughout this year — I feel that I’ve gotten better. Minor swing changes, getting stronger, being more agile. That’s all helped and gotten me to where I am today.” Read the rest of this entry »

In 2023, Emmanuel Clase ran a 3.22 ERA and a 2.91 FIP. His 44 saves were a career high and five more than any other pitcher. Compared to the rest of the league, he was great. Compared to prior versions of Emmanuel Clase, however, he was dreadful. In 2021 and 2022, Clase was an unstoppable force of nature, running a 1.33 ERA and a top-five groundball rate while striking out more than a batter per inning. Then in 2023, Clase fell off a cliff, though admittedly, he landed on another, still pretty lofty cliff; not with a splat, but gently, into some soft, leafy bushes.

What happened to Clase? Everything happened! There were situational factors and mechanical factors. There were changes in consistency and approach. Everything is connected when it comes to pitching, with one factor cascading upon another. The fun is in following the chain. Read the rest of this entry »

Troy Taylor is an under-the-radar pitcher to keep your eye on in the Seattle Mariners system. A 22-year-old right-hander who was taken in the 12th round of the 2022 draft out of the University of California Irvine, Taylor impressed evaluators in the Arizona Fall League with a two-pitch mix that has him well-positioned for a future role as a big-league reliever.

“I’m a big fan of what he can do athletically, as a mover,” said a scout I spoke to. “His stuff is good. He’s a guy who probably ends up in the bullpen with the Mariners, and sooner rather than later.”

He’s already come a long way. Taylor was an infielder at Rancho Cucamonga’s Los Osos High School, and when he did occasionally take the mound — “I closed a couple of times” — all he really did was throw as hard he could. It wasn’t until he got to Cyprus Junior College, and then to UC-Irvine, that he “actually started learning how to pitch.”

Taylor has understandably learned a lot more about the nuances of his craft since signing with Seattle, but he nonetheless remains anything but a technician. Topping out at 98 mph and typically averaging “five and some change,” he still tries to throw his heater as hard as he can. He identifies as a power pitcher.

Adding a third pitch is a goal — the Mariners have him working on a changeup to use against left-handed hitters — but his fastball-slider combination will always be his bread and butter. The former is not only his best pitch, it has unique characteristics. Read the rest of this entry »

As you might have heard, the Yankees made a big splash early this offseason by trading for Juan Soto. It was one of the most impactful moves of the entire winter, and they struck quickly. Then, they went into hibernation. Their next major move didn’t come until yesterday, when they signed Marcus Stroman to a two-year deal worth $37 million, as Joel Sherman first reported.

As second acts go, it’s surely not what Yankees fans were hoping for. New York was linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and several other interesting pitchers were at least briefly connected to the team as well. But while Stroman is hardly the most exciting signing of the offseason, I think he’ll be an important cog in the team’s 2024 quest to get back to the playoffs, and that makes for a great fit in my opinion.

Let’s get something out of the way first: ZiPS doesn’t agree with me on this one. It thinks that Stroman is going to be a decidedly unexciting rotation option for the next two years:

In a word, yikes. That’s a desultory projection, the kind of starter that you’d be unhappy turning to in a playoff game. As you can see, the model would only have offered him about $25 million for the next two years rather than $37 million. But I’m not quite buying it, so let’s talk about why. Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants drafted Reggie Crawford as a two-way player, and so far they’ve allowed the 30th-overall pick in the 2022 draft to continue to both pitch and swing the bat. How much longer that will be the case remains to be seen, with the forthcoming season likely going a long way toward determining an answer. To this point, Crawford has had scant opportunity to do either. Thanks largely to Tommy John surgery, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound University of Connecticut product has logged just 19 innings and 111 plate appearances (71 of them in the Arizona Fall League) since signing a professional contract.

Eric Longenhagen described the left-left hurler/first-baseman as “a prospect of extreme variance” and “still more a developmental project than anything else” when assigning him a 40+ FV midway through last summer. That both his hitting and pitching potential factor into our lead prospect analyst’s assessment makes Crawford arguably the most intriguing young player in the Giants’ pipeline. If he performs capably on both sides in 2024, he’ll be among the most intriguing young players in baseball.

Crawford discussed his two-way aspirations in the final week of the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: To start, I’m interested in your thoughts on someone you’ve been playing against here in the Fall League. Carson Williams was highly regarded as a two-way player in high school, but has only played shortstop since Tampa Bay drafted him 28th overall in 2021. Could you see him succeeding at both in pro ball?

Reggie Crawford: “Oh, I’d imagine so. It just comes down to… I mean, for me the planning and the scheduling is probably the most difficult part. Someone who is that athletic and has those sets of tools, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to.” Read the rest of this entry »