Archive for Daily Graphings

The Ferrari That Is Jacob deGrom Is Once Again in the Shop

Jacob deGrom
Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

When the Rangers shocked the baseball world by signing Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract in December, it was with the hope that the 34-year-old righty could steer clear of the type of injuries that limited him to a total of 26 starts in the 2021 and ’22 seasons. But since the opening of camps in February, it’s been a bumpy ride, and that’s carried over into the regular season. On Friday night, for the second time in three starts, deGrom took an early exit due to an arm issue; this time, he’s headed to the injured list, with a diagnosis of elbow inflammation. To call upon an oft-used metaphor: this fancy, expensive, high-performance sports car is once again in the shop.

Facing a Yankees lineup weakened by injuries — no Aaron Judge, no Giancarlo Stanton, no Josh Donaldson — on Friday night, deGrom cruised through the first three innings, retiring all nine hitters on a total of 28 pitches, striking out two and never reaching a three-ball count. He began to labor in the fourth, however. After a six-pitch groundout by DJ LeMahieu, he issued a five-pitch walk to Anthony Rizzo, then went to a full count against Gleyber Torres before getting him to fly out, and finally allowed a two-strike single to Willie Calhoun. Notably, deGrom’s last two pitches to Calhoun — a 96.6 mph fastball taken for a ball and then the 89.4 mph slider that he hit, both of which were several inches outside — were down about three miles per hour relative to their previous offerings of that type.

That sudden drop cued pitching coach Mike Maddux and the team trainer to visit the mound; Maddux soon tag-teamed with manager Bruce Bochy, who did little more than pat a dejected-looking deGrom on the shoulder and send him on his way.

After the Rangers finished off their 5–2 win, the team announced that deGrom had departed due to forearm tightness; the pitcher himself described it as “just some discomfort.” According to general manager Chris Young, an MRI taken the next day showed inflammation, but notably, he made no mention of structural damage, suggesting that whatever the team saw with regards to deGrom’s ulnar collateral ligament, flexor, and whatever else was, if not in mint condition, not a concern at this time. The Rangers elected to put him on the 15-day injured list, though Young downplayed the situation, saying, “[H]e came in today and felt OK, which was a positive, but given how important he is to us and our season, we’re going to play this very cautiously and see how he responds over the next several days to treatment. And then after seven to 10 days, we’ll have a pretty good idea of what the next steps are.” Read the rest of this entry »


Matt Strahm Destroyed the Market. Now He’s Smashing Expectations

Matt Strahm
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

If Matt Strahm wasn’t on your radar before this season, I can’t blame you. The left-hander put up increasingly worse results during his four years with the Padres, culminating in a 2021 season lost to injury. He bounced back the following year as a solid middle reliever for the Red Sox, but even so, he was hardly a free agent to watch this winter. He only made headlines because the two-year, $15 million deal he signed with the Phillies was more lucrative than anyone expected for him; an unnamed executive claimed that the contract “destroyed the market” for left-handed relievers.

A few years back, though, Strahm was a top-100 prospect and the most promising name in the Royals’ system. He earned his first feature here at FanGraphs in August 2016 in a piece that called him “a new relief weapon.” He was marvelous that season, posting a 1.23 ERA and 2.06 FIP across 22 innings for the reigning world champs. A year later, he earned another look from the FanGraphs staff, this time as the headlining return in the Trevor Cahill trade between the Royals and Padres. The summer after that, Strahm was once again the star of a FanGraphs story, this one about his work as an opener. Travis Sawchik looked at Strahm’s success and wondered if “Hader Lite” was an appropriate nickname. That’s high praise, indeed.

All this to say, Strahm isn’t just some guy, no matter how much his new nickname (Pastrami, i.e. “Pa-strahm-i”) makes him sound like the manager of an old-time Brooklyn deli or a kid from The Little Rascals. At the same time, he hasn’t been particularly relevant for several years, and as he entered his age-31 season, you might have thought the former top prospect was done making headlines.

Six games into his Phillies career, Strahm demands attention. He ranks 10th among National League pitchers (min. 20 IP) with a 2.31 ERA and among the top 10 in all the major ERA estimators: FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA. The only other NL pitchers who can say the same are Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, and Max Fried — arguably the early-season frontrunners for the National League Cy Young. Read the rest of this entry »


David Bednar Is Unhittable at Any Speed

David Bednar
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates, you might have heard, are in first place at the end of April. Not only that, they’ve played like a first-place team and then some, outscoring opponents by 48 runs in 29 games. Heading into Sunday, their pitching staff had the second-best ERA and FIP in the National League. Their offense had posted the second-best wRC+ in the NL as well; based on the first month of the season, the only thing fluky about them has been the names on the backs of their jerseys. Maybe they’ll cool off, maybe they won’t, but full credit to them for an exceptional first month of the season.

So why am I singling out David Bednar?

Heading into the season, Bednar was one of the few Pirates who it was safe to assume would be good. Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen are big names, but they’re getting up there in years. Bryan Reynolds would be good, most likely, but perhaps not in Pirates colors. But Bednar is a rock. He was an All-Star last year, for God’s sake. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Bill Haselman Recalls the Brawl That Almost Broke Cal’s Streak

Bill Haselman precipitated a memorable brawl on June 6, 1993. Plunked by a Mike Mussina pitch, the Seattle Mariners catcher charged the mound and proceeded to tackle the Baltimore Orioles right-hander. The melee that followed was a doozy. Tussles involving numerous players took place all around the infield, and when all was said and done, seven players were ejected, and at least four were injured — including one who had played in 1,790 consecutive games.

“It was just a weird situation,” recalled Haselman, three decades later. “Chris Bosio was pitching for us — he’d come back from a broken collarbone — and he threw balls behind Mark McLemore and Harold Reynolds. The first one wasn’t on purpose. The one he threw behind Reynolds [in the bottom of the sixth inning] was on purpose. Reynolds had bunted for a hit against him with two strikes, and he’d also always hit Bosio well [14-for-28 lifetime]. Back then, that’s what you did: you hit a guy. The pitch went behind him.

“We come up in the seventh and Mussina punches out Jay Buhner and Mackey Sasser,” continued Haselman, who is now a coach for the Los Angeles Angels. “I’m up next, and I had an idea of what might happen. I never had any thought of charging the mound — I’d never done it in my life — but for some reason, I did. It was ‘Boom!” Then there was a brawl.”

Haselman had homered off of Mussina earlier in the game, but the erstwhile backstop doesn’t believe that had any bearing on the HBP. Rather, it was because Bosio had thrown behind a pair of Birds. Mussina’s pitch didn’t miss, and that fact that it was a shoulder shot contributed heavily to Haselman’s impromptu mound visit. “I didn’t like it being so high, near my head,” he explained. “That’s why I went out there.” Read the rest of this entry »


The Atlantic League Is Testing New Rules

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The new rules introduced to MLB this season have been the subject of much discussion. From the larger bases and pickoff rules leading to a rise in stolen bases, to the shift restrictions resuscitating the pulled groundball, to the potential impact of the pitch timer on the fan and player experience, the 2023 rule changes have been the most significant in recent memory.

Whether or not new ideas end up in the final rulebook, the league is constantly innovating to determine whether further changes would improve the game. In 2019, MLB reached an agreement with the Atlantic League, considered to be the highest non-affiliated league in the country, to “test experimental playing rules and equipment during the Atlantic League’s Championship Season.” Recent rule changes like the larger bases and limited infield shifting were piloted in the Atlantic League before coming to MLB, but not every rule tested there has been or will be implemented in the majors. In 2021, the Atlantic League moved the pitching mound back by a foot, breaking a century-long custom. The goal was to give hitters a better chance against premium velocity while also allowing breaking balls to shine more, but testing found that the change hadn’t accomplished its intended effects. Last week, MLB announced its new experimental rules for the 2023 Atlantic League season, which begins today:

Read the rest of this entry »


On Hitters Simplifying Their Loads

Matt Olson
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

While I’m sure those of you who are reading this should be aware of what I’m about to say, I’m going to say it anyway: hitting baseballs is difficult. In fact, it is the very reason I’m writing this piece. As I’ve watched the beginning of the season, I’ve noticed some hitters make tweaks here and there. Hitting is a game of adjustments; if one thing doesn’t work or doesn’t feel comfortable, you try the next, and so on and so forth until something clicks. When you’re struggling at the plate, there are some rules of thumb to consider if you’re considering a change. The first thing that comes to mind is obvious: simplify.

There are a few ways to interpret that, but what I have in mind focuses on a hitter’s load. Depending on factors such as bat speed, barrel acceleration, and pitch identification, a hitter will fall somewhere between Javier Báez and Giancarlo Stanton on the movement spectrum. By that, I mean that you can move almost every part of your body, or you can just pick your bat up off your shoulder and swing. Neither is necessarily better than the other, but for some hitters, too much movement (or movement in an inefficient direction) can negatively impact bat path or the ability to make flush contact on a consistent basis. An adjustment which simplifies your load can make it easier for a hitter to get the bat on plane with the baseball. Read the rest of this entry »


The White Sox Are Utterly Terrible

Dylan Cease Andrew Vaughn
Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Say this for the White Sox: They scored runs on Thursday. Sure, they were thrashed 14–5 by the Rays, which extended their losing streak to eight games, but they ended their scoreless streak at 25 innings, scored more runs than they had in the previous four games (three), and matched their total of hits from the previous three games (11). When you’ve lost 13 out of your last 15 games, this counts as progress.

Chicago’s current skid has dropped the team’s record to 7–19, the third-worst in the majors. There’s no ambiguity about whether the White Sox are bad: they also have the third-worst run differential and projected winning percentage, according to both PythagenPat and BaseRuns:

White Sox via Projected Standings
Team W L Win% Rdif RS/G RA/G Pyth Win% BaseRuns Win%
Athletics 5 21 .192 -113 3.81 8.15 .175 .231
Royals 6 20 .231 -59 3.19 5.46 .269 .286
White Sox 7 19 .269 -58 3.88 6.12 .293 .292

In the words of James Brown, “People, it’s bad.” Read the rest of this entry »


Bryson Stott Is Still a Work in Progress

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Bryson Stott began this season with a 17-game hit streak, marking a new Phillies franchise record to start a season. Eleven of those games were multi-hit efforts, culminating in 29 hits across his first 81 plate appearances. He’s added a handful of hits since his streak ended on April 18 and his overall line now stands at .339/.368/.459, good for a 126 wRC+. His early season success has been one of the few bright spots for the Phillies as they deal with a a variety of woes.

While Stott’s hot start is being at least partially driven by some fortunate results when he has put the ball in play — his BABIP currently stands at .417 — his success is also the culmination of a number of adjustments he’s made since making the Opening Day roster as a rookie last year. His initial exposure to the big leagues didn’t go very well. He collected just four hits across 31 plate appearances and was demoted to Triple-A on April 20 after playing in just nine games in the majors. Upon getting recalled on May 8, he continued to struggle until making an adjustment to his swing. Read the rest of this entry »


A Look at Baseball’s Best Horizontal Hitters

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a new pitch classification, well, sweeping the nation, and with the aptly-named sweeper comes a lot to learn about its behavior, usage, and effectiveness. For those catching up, the sweeper, which Statcast introduced to its pitch classification system this spring, is a breaking ball that plays more on the horizontal plane than the vertical one, typically thrown slower and with more break than a slider, “sweeping” across its path rather than dropping the way a traditional curveball might. The rarer slurve, on the other hand, breaks horizontally like a sweeper but also features more downward break. While the slider classification had become a bit of a catch-all for pitches that break horizontally, which vary tremendously in velocity and depth of the break, the introduction of the sweeper classification helps to differentiate the breaking ball by both the type and the amount of horizontal break. For reference, here’s what the average sweeper, slider, curveball, and slurve have looked like so far this year:

Pitch Type Averages, 2023
Pitch Type Velocity Glove-Side Movement Vertical Movement w/o Gravity
Sweeper 81.6 14.6 2.2
Slider 84.8 5.9 2.0
Curveball 79.7 8.8 -8.9
Slurve 82.4 14.5 -3.1
SOURCE: Statcast

As many have noted, this isn’t a new pitch so much as it is a recognition of trends toward a pitch that was already there. Over the last seven seasons, the percentage of breaking balls that broke at least a foot to the pitcher’s glove side has risen from 17.7% in 2017 to 27.4% so far this year, including a seven-point increase in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the average vertical drop (without gravity) on those breaking balls has shrunk from -5.9 inches as recently as 2019 to just -2.0 so far this year. Over the last few years, pitchers have been sending more and more breaking balls veering across the strike zone without dropping. Pitchers and teams have different names for the pitch – the Yankees call their version a “whirly;” Statcast now calls it a sweeper. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mariners Have Lost Robbie Ray for the Season

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Robbie Ray did not replicate his 2021 AL Cy Young-winning form last year. In fact, he struggled down the stretch, but he did make a solid contribution as the Mariners ended their 21-year playoff drought. Alas, he won’t get to help them try to repeat that feat. On Wednesday, the Mariners announced that the 31-year-old lefty will undergo surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon and miss the remainder of the season.

After a promising spring training in which he restored some lost velocity to his four-seam fastball, Ray made just one start, and it wasn’t pretty. Facing the Guardians on March 31, he needed 26 pitches to complete the first inning, during which he issued back-to-back four-pitch walks to José Ramírez and Josh Bell before escaping by striking out Josh Naylor. His fastball velocity quickly diminished and he lasted just 3.1 innings, walking five and surrendering four hits and five runs (three earned).

In the immediate aftermath, Ray didn’t tell reporters that he had felt tightness in his forearm starting in the second inning, a problem that he attributed to the cold weather. After undergoing an MRI the next day due to lingering soreness, he was diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain; only in discussing the injury with reporters did he reveal his discomfort. Read the rest of this entry »