Yu Darvish’s six-year, $108 million extension with the Padres looks innocuous enough. Darvish is absolutely essential to the Padres’ success, and he’s now one of those rare MLB players who’s signed multiple $100 million deals, despite not having reached free agency the first time until his age-31 season.

If anyone can pitch until he’s 42, it’s Darvish, the man who’s got more pitches than can fit in Mary Poppins’ carpetbag. This extension actually has me looking forward to watching Darvish once he gets into his latter-day Zack Greinke era. No, the interesting thing about this contract is not who’s getting paid, who’s doing the paying, or how much money is set to change hands. It’s when. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we published our playoff odds for the 2023 season. Those odds contain a ton of interesting bells and whistles, from win distributions to chances of receiving a playoff bye. At their core, however, they’re based on one number: win totals. Win totals determine who makes the playoffs, so our projections, at their core, are a machine for spitting out win totals and then assigning playoff spots from there.

We’ve been making these projections since 2014, so I thought it would be interesting to see how our win total projections have matched up with reality. After all, win total projections are only useful if they do an acceptable job of anticipating what happens during the season. If we simply projected 113 wins for the Royals every year, to pick a random example, the model wouldn’t be very useful. The Royals have won anywhere from 58 to 95 games in that span.

I’m not exactly sure what data is most useful about our projections, so I decided to run a bunch of different tests. That way, whatever description of them best helps you understand their volatility, you can simply listen to that one and ignore everything else I presented. Or, you know, consider a bunch of them. It’s your brain, after all.

Before I get started on these, I’d like to point out that I’ve already given our playoff odds estimates a similar test in these two articles. If you’re looking for a tl;dr summary of it, I’d go with this: our odds are pretty good, largely because they converge on which teams are either very likely or very unlikely to make the playoffs quickly. The odds are probably a touch too pessimistic on teams at the 5–10% playoff odds part of the distribution, though that’s more observational than provable through data. For the most part, what you see is what you get: projections do a good job of separating the wheat from the chaff.

With that out of the way, let’s get back to projected win totals. Here’s the base level: the average error of our win total projections is 7.5 wins, and the median error is 6.5 wins. In other words, if we say that we think your team is going to win 85.5 games, that means that half the time, they’ll win between 79 and 92 games. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but for what it’s worth, that error has been consistent over time. In standard deviation terms, that’s around 9.5 wins. Read the rest of this entry »

On the heels of what was arguably the best season of his career — one in which he set career highs in wRC+ (152) and WAR (7.4), helped the Padres to the NLCS for the first time in 24 years, and finished second in the NL MVP voting — Manny Machado has informed the Padres that he intends to exercise the opt-out in his $300 million contract after this season and test free agency again.

Last Friday, at the Padres’ spring training site in Peoria, Arizona, the All-Star third baseman confirmed that in December prior to the Winter Meetings, agent Dan Lozano gave the Padres a February 16 deadline to reach agreement on extending the 10-year, $300 million contract Machado signed in February 2019. According to a report by the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee, the Padres made just one offer after hearing from Lozano; two days before the deadline, they offered to add five years and $21 million per year ($105 million total) to the five years and $150 million that will remain on his deal after this year. The proposed package of 10 years and $255 million wasn’t enough to satisfy Machado, and so with the deadline having passed, he told reporters that now that he’s in camp he wants to focus on the upcoming season rather than on contract negotiations. Read the rest of this entry »

Sal Frelick is a pure hitter from a cold weather climate. He is also one of the top prospects in the Brewers’ system and ranks 68th overall on our recently released Top 100. A Massachusetts native who was drafted 15th overall in 2021 out of Boston College, the 22-year-old outfielder is coming off of a first full professional season in which he slashed .331/.403/.480 with 11 home runs between three levels. Moreover, he fanned just 63 times in 562 plate appearances and spent the final two months with Triple-A Nashville. Assigned a 50 FV by our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, the 5-foot-9-and-a-half, 184-pound left-handed hitter doesn’t project to hit for much power, but his elite contact skills make him one of the more intriguing position player prospects in the National League.

Frelick discussed his line-drive approach and his ascent to pro ball prior to the start of spring training.

———

David Laurila: You’re obviously a very good hitter. Where did you learn to hit?

Sal Frelick: “I don’t know if I ever learned from anybody, For as long as I can remember, the only thing I’ve tried to do is not strike out. I’ve wanted to put the ball in play, and over time, with that being the number one priority for me, it’s kind of how the swing I have now developed.”

Laurila: Is it basically the same swing you had as a kid?

Frelick: “Just about. It’s obviously gotten a little cleaner mechanically, but for the most part it’s been just short and compact. It’s not the prettiest thing you’ll ever see, but it gets the job done.”

Laurila: What’s not pretty about it?

Frelick: “If you look at your average lefty, sweet-swinging [Robinson] Canó-type of player, they have these nice long swings. Because I’ve always been trying to stay as short as possible, trying not to swing and miss, it’s just kind of compact.” Read the rest of this entry »

Despite three seasons until he hits free agency, the Pirates find themselves at a crossroads with Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh shipping out veterans as they approach lucrative paydays is a 30-year-old story, and as the team’s young(ish) star with the most service time, it’s no surprise that Reynolds would be the subject of constant, swirling rumors. He and the Pirates talked about an extension, but nothing came of it; seeking a little more clarity, the 2021 All-Star requested a trade. Luckily, unlike the Gerrit Cole situation, there hasn’t been a decisive break between player and organization, and Reynolds is still open to discussing an extension. But what kind of extension is realistic for Reynolds, and will the Pirates be able to field a contender while they have him?

Per The Athletic, the Pirates and Reynolds were about $50 million apart in their extension talks. Given that this $50 million isn’t, say, the difference between $300 and $350 million, it’s a notable separation. Pittsburgh’s offer was six years and $75 million, covering a few years of free agency; that would be the largest contract in team history, but that mostly reflects the ultra-thrifty approach of the Bucs, not some surfeit of munificence on their part. Compared to the eight-year, $70 million contract that Ke’Bryan Hayes signed, it seems downright miserly, given how far away Hayes was even from arbitration at the time.

Reynolds had a notable dropoff in play from 2021 to ’22, going from .302/.390/.522, 6.1 WAR to .262/.345/.461, 2.9 WAR, but a large chunk of that dropoff was to be expected given the pattern of what happens to players after career-best seasons. And in any case, there was never a chance the Pirates were actually going to offer him a contract consistent with the notion that he was a six-win player, because then you’re getting into Juan Soto territory. But as a three- or four-win player with a few years of arbitration remaining, it’s close enough for a deal to be plausible.

So let’s run the numbers. The current contract, a two-year deal to avoid arbitration, already covers the 2023 season, so we’ll focus the projection as an extension past this season. Read the rest of this entry »

In the first game of the 2021 ALDS between the Rays and Red Sox, Randy Arozarena stole home. With two outs, two strikes, and a dangerous left-handed hitter at the plate, the defense wasn’t worried about the runner at third. Arozarena took advantage, sprinting for home as southpaw Josh Taylor began his methodical windup. The speedy rookie timed it perfectly, taking off as soon as Taylor turned around and launching into his slide by the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand.

It was the first straight steal of home in the playoffs since Jackie Robinson accomplished the feat in 1955. Arozarena also made history by becoming the first player to ever homer and steal home in the same postseason game. But his stolen base wasn’t just historic in and of itself, and his jump wasn’t the only thing he timed perfectly. By stealing home that October, he tied a beautiful bow atop one of the most impressive league-wide seasons in the history of stealing home plate. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s always nice to feel welcome. After excelling for the White Sox as a stopgap shortstop in 2022, Elvis Andrus will return to Chicago in 2023, this time as the team’s starting second baseman. Toward the end of the 2022 season, he made clear to reporters that he would welcome a return engagement and was open to shifting positions if need be. Apparently Rick Hahn was listening. The deal, pending a physical, is for a reported one year and $3 million. ESPN‘s Jeff Passan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the deal and terms, respectively. Amazingly, after 14 years in the big leagues, this was the first time Andrus had ever been a free agent.

Although Andrus didn’t make our Top 50 Free Agents list, he accrued more WAR in 2022 than 37 players who did, and he has, in my opinion, the greatest surname in all of baseball. Our crowdsourced predictions pegged him for two years and $20 million, so if one year and $3 million sounds like a lot less to you, then your math is spot on. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the only other teams reported to have interest in Andrus were the Red Sox and Angels. Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks currently have one of baseball’s best farm systems and an improved player development system is playing a big role in its success. Led by Josh Barfield since 2019, the department has seen the likes of Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas make their big league debuts in just the past year, and other high-ceiling prospects — Jordan Lawlar is among the notables — are coming fast. Moreover, the pipeline includes not just position players, but also promising pitchers. Playing in a powerhouse division that includes the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, the D-backs will be counting on their young core as they strive to reach the postseason for the first time since 2017.

Barfield discussed a few of the team’s top prospects, and a pair of under-the-radar players to keep an eye on, in a recent phone call.

———

David Laurila: You had a relatively short playing career. Looking through the lens of your current job, how might you have been better developed?

Josh Barfield: “That’s a good question. I think having a better understanding of what I did well, the areas that I struggled in, and spending more time on [the latter]. A lot of times, guys will… it’s always fun to work on the things you’re good at, but I think the best players — the most talented ones I’ve been around — have done a really good job of recognizing their weaknesses and attacking those areas on a daily basis. Offensively, defensively, whether it’s a movement efficiency… training today is just so much more individualized compared to 20 years ago when I was coming up.” Read the rest of this entry »

Arbitration is by definition a contentious process, but even so, it’s difficult to recall a recent case that left a star player so vocal about the damage done to his relationship with his team like that of Corbin Burnes. Last week, the Brewers went to trial with the 2021 NL Cy Young winner over a difference of just under $750,000 and prevailed, after which Burnes sounded off over the team’s conduct during the hearing. In all likelihood, this marks the beginning of the end of his time in Milwaukee; it’s difficult to imagine him agreeing to any kind of deal that would delay his free agency after what just transpired.

The 28-year-old Burnes has been the majors’ most valuable pitcher over the past three seasons according to our version of WAR:

Among pitchers with at least 300 innings in that span, Burnes also owns the lowest FIP and K-BB% (26.9%, virtually tied with Scherzer), and is second in strikeout rate and ERA (again in a virtual tie with Scherzer). It’s been a pretty good run, to say the least. That said, his 2022 campaign couldn’t quite live up to the high standards he set in 2021, as his strikeout rate receded and his home run rate nearly tripled:

Even so, Burnes led the NL in strikeouts (243) and starts (33) and placed third in K-BB%, fourth in innings, fifth in WAR, eighth in FIP and 10th in ERA. He made the NL All-Star team for the second season in a row and received Cy Young votes for the third time, finishing seventh; one voter had him as high as second, two more in third, and a total of 12 (out of 30) considered him among the league’s top five. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers have made it rain in free agency for two years running. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jacob deGrom highlight their haul, but Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, and Nathan Eovaldi are no slouches either. Texas shopped in bulk in the luxury aisles of free agency, and that shopping vaulted the expectations higher. The team hasn’t won 70 games since 2019 but is broadly projected, whether by playoff odds or betting lines, to end up in the 80s this year and to compete for a playoff berth.

Until late last week, the Rangers were expected to do so while attempting the team-building equivalent of playing with one hand tied behind their back. Baseball teams are required to use nine different batters, but the Rangers were short a few. Their left field plans involved Bubba Thompson, Brad Miller, Ezequiel Duran, Josh H. Smith, non-roster invitees, duct tape, and a ouija board. There’s no polite way to say this: that’s bad. But the Rangers knew it, and they acted to address their shortfall by signing Robbie Grossman to a one-year deal worth at least $2 million, and up to $5 million depending on incentives. Read the rest of this entry »