If the winter is a time for dreams, the spring is a time for solutions. Your team may have been going after Juan Soto or Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, depending on the offseason, but short of something going weird in free agency (like the unsigned Boras clients last year), if you don’t have them under contract at this point, they’ll be improving someone else’s club. However, that doesn’t mean that spring training is only about ramping up for the daily grind. Teams have real needs to address, and while they’re no doubt workshopping their own solutions – or possibly convincing themselves that the problem doesn’t exist, like when I wonder why my acid reflux is awful after some spicy food – that doesn’t mean that we can’t cook up some ideas in the FanGraphs test kitchen.

This is the second piece in a three-part series in which I’ll propose one way for each team to fill a roster hole or improve for future seasons. Some of my solutions are more likely to happen than others, but I tried to say away from the completely implausible ones. We’ll leave the hypothetical trades for Bobby Witt Jr. and Paul Skenes to WFAN callers. Also, I will not recommend the same fix for different teams; in real life, for example, David Robertson can help only one club’s bullpen. Today, we’ll cover the 10 teams in the Central divisions, beginning with the five in the AL Central before moving on to their counterparts in the NL Central. Each division is sorted by the current Depth Charts projected win totals.

Minnesota Twins: Take Mickey Gasper seriously
Faced with big questions at first base, the Twins made just about the least interesting move possible, signing Ty France to a cheap one-year deal. Over the last two seasons, France has put up 0.4 WAR in 1,200 plate appearances, but Minnesota seems content to run him out there in at least a timeshare with Jose Miranda. Instead, what the Twins should do is let Mickey Gasper take the majority of the playing time at first against righties, with Miranda getting the nod against lefties. Of course, the Twins probably won’t get rid of France after signing him to a guaranteed deal, but Gasper offers positional flexibility and should be on the roster anyway. In addition to first base, he also has experience at second, third and catcher. While in the minors with the Red Sox last year, Gasper posted a 165 wRC+ across 380 plate appearances, with a 179 mark over his 204 PA at Triple-A. Those numbers are more than good enough for him to deserve a chance in the majors.

Detroit Tigers: Do something weird with Javier Báez
If not for his salary, Javier Báez probably wouldn’t be guaranteed a place on this roster based on his production over the last two seasons. I think his inability to make contact is here to stay, so the Tigers are going to have to take him for what he is now instead of the player they thought they were signing three offseasons ago. At this point, he’s nothing more than a short-side platoon partner for shortstop Trey Sweeney, but if he’s going to be on the roster anyway, the Tigers might as well try some things with him. Why not get weird and give him some bullpen innings this spring? Báez has always had a strong arm, so if he’s down with the idea, maybe this is another way to justify his presence on the roster. After all, that two-way player designation is a thing now! Sure, it’s unlikely that Báez would transition into a usable relief pitcher at age 32, but the team doesn’t have much to lose here. At the very least, Detroit should give Báez reps in a super-utility role, but I like dreaming big, or at least dreaming odd. I’ve always felt spring training was the time for teams to embrace their weird impulses because it’s the only time they can truly experiment with their major league roster.

Kansas City Royals: Give Drew Waters a fair shake at a starting corner outfield job
The Royals missed an opportunity to upgrade their corner outfield positions this winter, but that doesn’t mean they should run it back with the group they had last year. Drew Waters certainly didn’t excel with a semi-regular role for a long stretch in 2023, but his wRC+ of 81 that year wasn’t much different from the 85 mark that MJ Melendez posted in 2024, and Melendez’s rough line came in three times as many plate appearances. Maybe Melendez has more offensive upside, but that isn’t enough of a reason for Kansas City to keep running him out there in left field, where he is a defensive liability. Waters is the more well-rounded player, and even if he doesn’t improve at the plate, his defensive value should make up for at least some of his lack of offense. Moreover, both players are 26, so this isn’t an age-related thing. Playing Waters in left doesn’t mean the Royals should give up on Melendez altogether; there will still be opportunities to get him plate appearances without having him wear a leather glove.

Cleveland Guardians: Stretch out a reliever for short starts
The Guardians look to have a terrific, deep, exciting bullpen, but the rotation doesn’t have that same rizz. Am I using that word right, fellow kids? I talked more about starter-reliever ambiguity with the Orioles in the first part of this series, but it’s relevant here for Cleveland, too. Triston McKenzie is no sure thing, and Shane Bieber isn’t likely returning until midseason, so another starter would be a nice thing to have. Since the Guardians don’t like to spend money, I won’t give them one of the remaining inning-eaters still available in free agency. Instead, I’ll pitch the idea of stretching out one of their relievers to start some four-inning specials. The deep bullpen gives them both the opportunity to lose someone and cover for a starter with a light workload, even by 2025 standards. Hunter Gaddis broke out in the bullpen in 2024, but he was one of their least dominant relievers in terms of punching out batters. Gaddis isn’t exactly a failed starter, because he hasn’t gotten enough run in that role, but he has refined his approach and become a better pitcher during his time in the bullpen. He’s now throwing more first-pitch strikes than he ever did in the minors. If he can keep that up, he’ll probably be the team’s best option for this starter-lite role.

Chicago White Sox: Embrace riskiness on offense
The White Sox have no hope of making a playoff run, so they have nothing to lose by taking chances with their roster. And right now, their lineup is full of veteran role players who don’t offer them much future value. Guys like Mike Tauchman, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater, Andrew Benintendi, and Joey Gallo won’t be around by the time this team is ready to contend again, and Chicago probably won’t be able to flip them for much at the trade deadline. So what’s the point in giving them regular playing time? Instead, the White Sox should be chasing upside right now, even if that upside comes with risk.

At this point in the offseason, the Pale Hose won’t find high-upside hitters on the free agent market, but they have plenty of them in their farm system. Really, the White Sox should be extremely aggressive with their prospects and non-prospect minor leaguers this spring, and give them as many opportunities as possible to snatch a starting spot away from the veterans. Let Chase Meidroth push Lenyn Sosa; offer Bryan Ramos every chance to knock Miguel Vargas permanently off the hot corner. Even less-heralded guys like Cal Mitchell, Andre Lipcius, or the recently outrighted Zach DeLoach have a better chance of one day contributing to a good White Sox team than Benintendi or Slater do.

Chicago Cubs: Explore a trade for Germán Márquez
ZiPS is highly optimistic about the Cubs entering 2025, but that’s largely due to a very bullish outlook on the bullpen, rather than a great deal of sunshine radiating over the pitching staff. The Cubs feel like a team that could use one more starting pitcher, with our Depth Charts having them just ahead of the Cardinals for the worst projected rotation in the NL Central, and ZiPS liking them only slightly better.

My inclination here was to effect a reunion with Marcus Stroman, but the Luis Gil injury seems to have put the kibosh on that. With that no longer an option, I’d love to see the Cubs swing a deal with the Rockies for Germán Márquez. A legitimate Cy Young contender at one point, Márquez has seen his last two seasons more or less wiped out due to elbow problems. That means there’s real risk, but as Michael Baumann wrote last week, Márquez’s velocity is back, and there’s a great deal of upside here if he’s healthy, similar to Jack Flaherty entering 2024. If there’s room for Márquez to make his hard sinker a larger part of his game, there are few better places to allow some extra grounders than in front of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Trade with the Nats for Andrés Chaparro
The Brewers love low-key additions, and one player who fascinates me at the moment is Andrés Chaparro, a former “sorta” prospect with the Yankees and Nationals. He destroyed Triple-A pitching last year, but Washington’s additions of Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell complicate his path to playing time. The Brewers already had Rhys Hoskins when they signed Mark Canha this offseason, meaning it might be tough for Chaparro to make the Opening Day roster as a first baseman, but at the very least he would be an interesting Triple-A stash. ZiPS is probably overrating Chaparro in projecting him to be an adequate defender at third base, but the probabilistic location-based system that ZiPS uses for minor leaguers thought he took a big step forward last year, and this methodology frequently spots some surprisingly solid fielders. I don’t think the Nats would ask for much in return, and Milwaukee ought to be adding anyone who could at least theoretically play third base, especially now that the team appears to have soured on Tyler Black at the position.

St. Louis Cardinals: Start talking about non-Arenado trades
The Cardinals are coming off one of the quietest offseasons I ever remember from them, with nearly all their effort this winter going toward a Nolan Arenado trade that hasn’t materialized. St. Louis seems to have accepted that Arenado will be its starting third baseman come Opening Day, but that doesn’t mean the team should turn off its phone. There are other trades to make. Free agency has few treasures remaining, and I’d argue that this is a seller’s market. Only handful of teams lack a realistic shot at the postseason in 2025, and I’d argue that the Cardinals should be considered among that group, even if the playoff odds say otherwise. Put it this way: If they were truly determined to contend this year, they would’ve made more of an effort this winter to improve their roster. Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan are players that contending clubs would probably be eager to acquire if they were available.

Cincinnati Reds: Talk megadeal with Elly De La Cruz
The Reds have basically no long-term contracts bogging down their payroll, as Hunter Greene is the only player with a guaranteed deal past 2026. They haven’t made a splash in free agency to bolster their roster of cheap talent, but instead of pocketing that money saved, they should invest it in their spectacular shortstop to make sure they can keep his utter awesomeness around for the 10-15 years. Yes, Elly De La Cruz is a Scott Boras client, and Boras clients tend not to sign extensions, but that doesn’t mean the Reds shouldn’t try to work out a deal, especially now when his free agency is a long way off.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Release Andrew McCutchen
There’s nothing wrong with saying goodbye when it’s time. It was fun to see Andrew McCutchen back in Pittsburgh and be reminded of what a wonderful player he was from 2009 to 2015, good enough that I’ll have to ponder sometime in the early 2030s whether his peak was enough to make my Hall of Fame ballot. But the decision to re-sign him for $5 million for 2025 was a terrible one because using the DH spot for a no-upside 38-year-old with no defensive value is a waste of resources. I think the Pirates are far better off using those plate appearances to give Jack Suwinski a clearer bounce-back chance or to serve as a friendly home for Henry Davis at some point this season if they haven’t already given up on him. No, the Pirates won’t actually do this, but they really should. The $5 million is gone no matter what, and the Pirates are a team that actually could make the playoffs if they had a better lineup.

If you were looking for differences between collegiate and professional baseball, you wouldn’t have to try very hard to find them. One of my favorites is the value and frequency of the hit-by-pitch.

College hitters get plunked more often than big leaguers for three reasons: First, college pitchers have worse command, as a rule, than their professional counterparts. Second, while the quality of play is high in college baseball, it’s not quite high enough to weed out all the weirdos. So you’ll get guys with no nerve endings in one of their arms who are quite happy to trade a welt for a free trip to first base. Read the rest of this entry »

This year’s Padres lineup may not be made entirely out of current and former shortstops, but on Wednesday, they added one to the fold. Jose Iglesias, who revived his career with the Mets last season in impressive fashion while also scoring an unlikely pop hit with “OMG,” has agreed to a minor league deal with the Padres, one with a non-roster invitation to their major league camp.

Iglesias headed last week’s roundup of prominent position players still on the free agent market. That’s a particularly funny sentence to write, not only since this spring hasn’t exactly offered the second coming of the Boras Four, but because Iglesias (who did hire Scott Boras to represent him this past offseason) wasn’t in the majors at all in 2023 after playing with six different teams over the previous six seasons. Nonetheless, I led my overview with the 35-year-old infielder because his 2.5 WAR — a career high, accumulated in just 85 games — was tops among the group and because the arc of his 2024 season was so compelling.

Coincidentally enough, during Iglesias’ absence from the majors in 2023 he spent about six weeks with the Padres’ Triple-A El Paso affiliate. This came after he’d signed a minor league contract with the Marlins and gone through spring training with them; he opted out a few weeks into April without ever playing a regular season game within their organization. From there, he signed that minor league deal with the Padres, hitting .317/.356/.537 in 28 games at El Paso. He opted out twice to test the free agent waters but didn’t catch on elsewhere, and played his last game of the season on June 7. Read the rest of this entry »

What follows is a brief summary of the modern history of the Atlanta Braves: six straight division titles from 2018 to 2023. That includes a World Series championship in 2021 and back-to-back 100-win seasons the following two years. I was tempted to caveat this by saying all this would’ve looked even more impressive if the Dodgers hadn’t ruined the curve, but in the 2020s, the Braves have been right there with them. Here’s a coincidence that’s nonetheless useful from a literary perspective: Brian Snitker is now one spot ahead of Bobby Cox on the career managerial winning percentage leaderboard.

In 2024, the Braves were still good, but not quite as good as before. There were reasons for this. After years of unusual lineup stability, everyone got hurt except for Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson (who had a down year by his standards), and Orlando Arcia (who had a down year by Yuniesky Betancourt’s standards). Still, the Braves finished six games behind a Phillies team that came out of the gate like the 2001 Mariners but ended the season like, well, pick any subsequent Mariners team. The Braves needed a Game 162 win to grab a Wild Card berth, and didn’t do much with it, bowing out in straight sets to the Padres. Read the rest of this entry »

As you well know, this is the time of year when we talk about how projection systems are inherently conservative. Why isn’t Shohei Ohtani projected for a 12-win season? Because while that’s possible, it’s not the likeliest outcome once you’ve considered all the many factors that go into a baseball season. Projections aren’t meant to be thrilling. They’re meant to predict the future with the smallest margin for error possible. They’re regression machines. They crunch the numbers, they look to the past to see how similar scenarios have played out, and then they stop and say, “Hmm, we should probably hedge our bets here.” They don’t predict crazy edge cases. They don’t predict all-time records. Except apparently, this year they do.

If you stroll over to the ZiPS Depth Charts projections, you’ll find two Cincinnati Reds pitchers at the top of an extremely important column: hit-by-pitches. ZiPS DC expects Nick Lodolo to lead the league with 21 HBPs and Hunter Greene to be right behind him with 19. That part’s not particularly surprising. Greene led baseball with 19 HBPs in 2024, and even though he hit the IL four different times, Lodolo tied for second with 18. But Greene and Lodolo are not alone. Back in November, the Reds traded for Brady Singer, who hit 10 batters with the Royals last season and is projected to hit 10 more in 2025, tied for the 13th-highest projection. They also added Nick Martinez, one of three Reds projected to hit six batters. Then there are another five Reds projected for five HBPs. That’s eight different pitchers projected to hit at least five batters. According to Stathead, only 26 teams have ever accomplished that feat, rostering eight different pitchers who hit at least five batters. In all, ZiPS DC expects the Reds to hit 124 batters. The all-time record is 110, set by the 2022 Cincinnati Reds. The 2024 Cincinnati Reds are tied for 12th all-time with 93 (though they trailed the Mets for the NL lead by one).

Now, I need to back off this claim for a minute. If you’ve looked closely at ZiPS DC, you’ll know that the system projects more innings for each team than are actually available. The projections have the Reds throwing 1,753 innings, but over the past couple years, the average team has thrown right around 1,440. For a counting stat like this, we need to cut all our numbers by roughly 18%, and that brings the Reds’ projection down to 102 HBPs. That would still be the third-highest total in baseball history – truly a bonkers number when you consider that it’s merely their 50th percentile projection, meaning they’re just as likely to go over it as they are to go under it – but it would no longer be a record.

With 102 HBPs, the 2025 Reds would still trail the 2022 versions of themselves; back when they were so young and hopeful, and maybe even still dabbing occasionally. They’d also trail the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, whose starting rotation featured five different pitchers with at least 10 HBPs: Frank Bates (23), Jim Hughey (22), Charlie Knepper (15), Crazy Schmit (14), and Harry Colliflower (11). The Spiders Hit (by Pitch) Squad is pictured below, and I think we can all tell which one is Schmit.

We all know the case for the why the Reds might not hit their projections: injuries. Lodolo has struggled with more than his fair share of ailments, and Greene battled elbow soreness in August and September. If those two can’t combine for something like 220 innings, the Reds aren’t going to hit the record. On the other hand, nobody would call you crazy (Schmit) for expecting the Reds to blow past both the projection and the record. For starters, ZiPS DC pegs Lodolo for only 126 innings, and we’re reducing it by 18%, which brings his workload down below 104. He threw more innings than that last season, even as he made those four different trips to the IL. If Lodolo can make a full 30 starts, this thing’s in the bag, but for our purposes, he doesn’t even need to be fully healthy. If he can just be marginally healthier than he was in 2024 – and you’ll be shocked to hear this, but he’s apparently in the best shape of his life – he’s going to get a lot more innings, and no one hits more batters on a per-inning basis than Lodolo. After all, his name is literally Spanish for “I hurt it.”

Lodolo is projected to hit 1.5 batters per nine innings. Not only is that the most among all starters, it makes him one of just four starters projected to hit more than a batter per nine. The others: Chase Dollander, José Soriano, and, you guessed it, Greene. Between Hunter and I Hurt It, nominative determinism says the Reds are the team to beat (or rather, to be beaten by).

Using our fancy new historical ZiPS projections, you can also go back and look at that record-setting 2022 Reds team. You’ll find that those Reds also were projected for 124 HBPs. It’s kismet! However, if you dig down, you’ll notice that their projections were actually based on 2,439 innings; nearly a thousand more than a typical team’s workload and nearly 700 more than the 2025 Reds are projected to throw. Once you prorate their numbers for a normal 1,440-inning season, the 2022 Reds were projected to hit just 73 batters! They had to massively overperform their projections in order to plunk their way into the record books. ZiPS thinks these 2025 Reds are much, much more bloodthirsty.

The Reds are the first and oldest professional baseball team. Since 1882, Baseball Reference credits them with hitting 5,897 batters, 123 ahead of the second-place Phillies. ZiPS projects Philadelphia to plunk a paltry 58 batters this season, 44 fewer than the Reds. Even if the Reds disappoint us all and throw the ball over the plate at a non-record-breaking pace like a bunch of boring, competent belly itchers, they’re almost certain to add to their all-time lead. At least that’s what the projections say.

As I write this, the winter free agency period has essentially drawn to a close. Out of the top 50 free agents I highlighted before the offseason began, 48 have found homes — sorry, David Robertson and Kyle Gibson. Per RosterResource, only five free agents – including the two holdovers from the top 50 – accrued 1 WAR or more in 2024 and haven’t yet signed new deals. In other words, all the signing that is going to happen basically has, so it’s time to look back and see how you and I did at predicting the deals players would sign.

I like to evaluate my own predictions in service of making better ones in the future, dividing them up into a few categories. First, I break signings down by position, because the market for relievers and second basemen is different. Second, I look at both average annual value and total guarantee. There’s no set ratio for how to relate those two, so looking at each independently seems best to me. Finally, I look at both the individual predictions (how close to the actual contract that a player signed my predictions came), as well as the overall trend (how my aggregate predictions for each position group did compared to the total amount they received).

This year, I made all of that back-checking more rigorous. I put all of my predictions, as well as every crowdsourced one, into a giant spreadsheet. I noted all the contracts that were signed, made adjustments for deferrals, and ignored non-guaranteed money. I compared each actual contract to our predictions. I also gathered some of the best non-FanGraphs predictions I could find, looking to outlets like ESPN, The Athletic, and MLB Trade Rumors. Below, you’ll find how both the crowd (you) and I did, as well as the best non-FanGraphs entrant in each category. Read the rest of this entry »

If the winter is a time for dreams, the spring is a time for solutions. Your team may have been going after Juan Soto or Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, depending on the offseason, but short of something going weird in free agency (like the unsigned Boras clients last year), if you don’t have them under contract at this point, they’ll be improving someone else’s club. However, that doesn’t mean that spring training is only about ramping up for the daily grind. Teams have real needs to address, and while they’re no doubt workshopping their own solutions – or possibly convincing themselves that the problem doesn’t exist, like when I wonder why my acid reflux is awful after some spicy food – that doesn’t mean that we can’t cook up some ideas in the FanGraphs test kitchen.

This is the first piece in a three-part series in which I’ll propose one way for each team to fill a roster hole or improve for future seasons. Some of my solutions are more likely to happen than others, but I tried to say away from the completely implausible ones. We’ll leave the hypothetical trades for Bobby Witt Jr. and Paul Skenes to WFAN callers. Also, I will not recommend the same fix for different teams; in real life, for example, David Robertson can help only one club’s bullpen. Today, we’ll cover the 10 teams in the East divisions, beginning with the five in the AL East before moving on to their counterparts in the NL East. Each division is sorted by the current Depth Charts projected win totals. Read the rest of this entry »

Austin Adams threw a higher percentage of sliders than any pitcher in baseball last season. In 56 relief outings comprising 41 1/3 innings, the 33-year-old right-hander relied on his signature offering 73.8% of the time. The heavy usage wasn’t an outlier for Adams. Since breaking into the big leagues in 2017, his 77.2% slider percentage is tops among hurlers to throw at least 100 innings.

His overall numbers have been solid. Pitching for five teams, including the Athletics last year, Adams has a 4.10 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, and a 31.6% strikeout rate over 155 2/3 career innings. He’s challenging to square up consistently, and he’s held opposing batters to a .199 batting average. Command has been the fly in the ointment, and not just because of his higher-than-ideal 13.9% walk rate. Adams plunked 13 batters last season, and in 2021 with the Padres, he outlandishly logged 24 HBPs in 52 2/3 frames.

Now in big league camp with the Red Sox after signing a minor league deal in January, Adams sat down to talk about his slider(s) at Boston’s spring training facility in Fort Myers.

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David Laurila: You throw a ton of sliders. Why?

Austin Adams: “The reason I throw so many sliders is because I enjoy having a job in baseball. It’s my best pitch. I try to take each one of my pitches, individually, in a vacuum. For me, it’s not necessarily about setting things up. I’m not saying that’s not a thing. What I’m saying is that it’s harder to quantify. My highest-graded pitch is my slider — metrically it’s a really good pitch — so I’m going to throw it the majority of the time. It’s what gives me the best opportunity to get outs.”

Laurila: What are the metrics on your slider? Read the rest of this entry »

When David Appelman announced on Monday that we were adding college stats to our player pages and leaderboards, more than one person reached out to congratulate me personally. I had nothing to do with the conception or implementation of this blessed happening, but it is true: FanGraphs having college stats could not be more up my alley.

I wanted to play around with the new leaderboard, but this early in the season, there’s little to be gleaned. No pitcher has made more than four starts; no team has played more than 14 games. And most of the action we’ve seen so far has been nonconference throat-clearing, mismatches between blue bloods and mid-majors. The numbers will tell, but not for another few weeks.

So I decided to go back to the roots of the sabermetrics movement. Our college leaderboards might not have all the latest fancy Statcast stuff, but we’ve got FIP and K% and all sorts of things you wouldn’t take for granted if you’ve ever had to calculate a pitcher’s WHIP by hand on the back of a box score in a MAC press box. When we got all that stuff in the pro game, what did we do with it?

That’s right, relitigate award voting. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2024, after an injury to Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana was the Mets’ Opening Day starter, facing the Brewers. Now, after a list of injuries that’s way too long for an introduction paragraph, Quintana will be joining the Brewers rotation. On Monday, the Brewers and the 36-year-old left-hander agreed to a one-year deal worth $4.25 million. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the deal, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand broke the contract terms. As the Mets signed former Brewer Frankie Montas in December, the two teams are effectively performing their own second-hand pitcher swap.

Quintana’s deal, such as it is, makes it the big-money transaction of the offseason for the Brewers. It’s definitely not enough to make fans forget about owner Mark Attanasio’s recent comments: “Is my job to win a World Series,” he said, “or is my job to provide a summer of entertainment and passion and a way for families to come together?” (Not that it’s the purview of this particular article, but the answer to both questions, of course, is yes.) Until yesterday, Milwaukee’s priciest addition was a $1 million deal for reliever Tyler Alexander, but the team’s biggest move of the offseason is still the one that sent closer Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for one year of lefty starter Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. Christmas only comes once a year in Milwaukee. Read the rest of this entry »