George Lombard Jr. is a promising prospect with a first-round pedigree. Drafted 26th overall in 2023 out of Gulliver Preparatory School in Pinecrest, Florida, the right-handed-hitting shortstop is also the son of former big league outfielder (and current Detroit Tigers bench coach) George Lombard. Assigned a 45 FV by lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, the athletically gifted youngster is no. 4 on our recently released New York Yankees Top Prospects list.
The 19-year-old’s first full professional season was a mixed bag statistically. Over 497 plate appearances between Low-A Tampa and High-A Hudson Valley, Lombard logged a .231/.338/.334 slash line, a 99 wRC+, and 32 extra-base hits, five of which left the yard. Taking advantage of his plus wheels, he swiped 39 bases in 47 attempts.
Lombard discussed his game late in the 2024 season.
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David Laurila: I’ve seen you listed at 6-foot-2, 190 pounds. How accurate is that, and where do you see yourself going forward?
George Lombard Jr: “I’m 6-foot-3 and around 205 pounds. I’ll put on some more weight in the next few years, and I think our goal will end up being around 215, maybe 220. We believe that I can still be fast as I put on weight, so we’re going to continue to do that. A lot of it will just come with physically maturing over time, and putting in the work in the weight room.” Read the rest of this entry »
It was the Before Times, November 21, 2019 to be exact. While dinosaurs no longer roamed the earth, we had yet to learn about COVID-19. Unencumbered, several FanGraphs staffers descended upon Manhattan for a FanGraphs Live event and an Effectively Wild taping. Yours truly was on the Major League Update panel alongside The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler and Marc Carig. Near the end of our half-hour segment, EW co-host Meg Rowley asked us, “What would you change about baseball?… What would you do at this moment, at this juncture, to make baseball more compelling?”
I don’t even recall the answer I intended to give, but after waiting my turn, I built upon one of Marc’s ideas about his desire to see the ball put in play more often. “Start caring about batting average again,” I said. “Because batting average is fun.”
An actual listen to the podcast suggests otherwise, but in my own recollection, it felt like one of those record-scratch moments where everything stops abruptly and you can hear a pin drop. A FanGraphs writer, one with a lengthy track record of applying sabermetric principles, one who made his name with objectivity-based Hall of Fame analysis — that guy, defending batting average? Read the rest of this entry »
We are now just over a week from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and while there are still a lot of moves left to make, we have a basic idea how teams will be fundamentally constructed for the 2025 season. Our free agent tracker still lists 124 remaining free agents, as of Monday evening, but most of these players aren’t likely to have major impacts on their new teams. Only 15 of the players are projected on our Depth Charts as being worth one win, and only three players are projected at two wins. But one player remaining, Alex Bregman, stands clearly above the pack, at least as the mean old computers judge the situation. (Sorry, Polar Bear.)
A famous Scott Boras client in his early 30s remaining unsigned due to underwhelming offers in free agency has become a common refrain over the last few years. Unlike with some of their departing free agents over the years, the Astros have made more than a token effort at retaining their star, extending a six-year, $156 million offer in December. The general belief around baseball is that the deal is still on the table, and both the front office and his teammates would be very happy to have him return. But from a baseball standpoint, is Houston necessarily the best place for Bregman? And if it isn’t, which teams should be seriously pursuing him?
Fellow Fangraphéen Michael Baumann discussed the Bregman to the Astros scenario recently, and concluded that given the team’s needs and the acquisition of Isaac Paredes, it would be hard to get the maximum value out of Bregman’s return without doing something shocking, like trading Paredes before the start of the season. Since I’ve completed the initial run of ZiPS projections, I’m now equipped to do some (very) preliminary standings projections. I projected the Astros both with and without Bregman, using the normal methodology I use, which attempts to deal with team upside and downside scenarios and injuries.
ZiPS currently projects the league with a level of parity that appears, at first glance, to be greater than in the typical season. While the Dodgers are projected at 97 wins, the Astros are the only other team projected with an over/under number of 90 wins. That doesn’t mean there will be only two 90-win teams – in fact, you should expect quite a few more teams to reach that threshold — just that there’s a lot of uncertainty in a baseball team’s performance, and currently only two clubs have enough depth across their rosters to avoid the disastrous downside scenarios that are built into this projection system.
At 90.2 wins on average, reconfiguring a healthy Astros team to play Bregman at third, Paredes at second, and Jose Altuve in the outfield (the latter has been discussed), adds 2.8 wins (again, on average) to the bottom line in the ZiPS projections. That’s enough to bump the team’s playoff probability from 69.9% to 78.0%. A gain of just over eight percentage points is solid, to be sure, but how does that compare with the rest of the league?
To answer that question, I redid the simulation an additional 29 times, adding Bregman in turn to each team to see how his presence would change its playoff probability. It’s a bit more complex than simply replacing a team’s existing third baseman because in most cases, Bregman would cause a significant reshuffling of the roster roles. I tried to keep Bregman at third base wherever possible and shift others around him, and I completely avoided implausible scenarios, such as a team signing him to be its starting catcher. So, how’d it shake out?
ZiPS Playoff Probability – Signing Alex Bregman
Team
Current Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds With Bregman
Change
Kansas City Royals
39.7%
54.3%
14.6%
Detroit Tigers
31.2%
43.6%
12.4%
Cincinnati Reds
26.2%
38.5%
12.3%
San Diego Padres
51.7%
63.7%
12.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks
50.4%
61.9%
11.5%
Boston Red Sox
45.3%
56.1%
10.8%
Philadelphia Phillies
65.5%
75.9%
10.4%
Seattle Mariners
53.0%
63.2%
10.2%
Cleveland Guardians
51.3%
61.4%
10.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates
21.9%
31.8%
9.9%
Minnesota Twins
49.6%
58.2%
8.6%
St. Louis Cardinals
27.7%
36.1%
8.4%
Milwaukee Brewers
51.8%
60.0%
8.2%
Houston Astros
69.9%
78.0%
8.2%
New York Mets
61.3%
69.3%
8.0%
Texas Rangers
49.9%
57.8%
7.9%
Teampa Bay Rays
32.6%
40.5%
7.9%
New York Yankees
60.7%
68.4%
7.7%
Toronto Blue Jays
40.7%
47.9%
7.2%
Atlanta Braves
68.8%
75.2%
6.4%
Washington Nationals
5.7%
11.4%
5.7%
Baltimore Orioles
61.4%
66.7%
5.3%
The Athletics
8.9%
14.0%
5.1%
Los Angeles Angels
5.8%
9.8%
4.0%
Miami Marlins
3.2%
6.8%
3.6%
Chicago Cubs
55.8%
59.4%
3.6%
San Francisco Giants
21.4%
24.2%
2.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers
87.8%
89.8%
2.0%
Colorado Rockies
0.8%
2.6%
1.8%
Chicago White Sox
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
There are basically two questions here for projection systems to answer: 1) How many wins would Bregman add? 2) What are the utility of those wins? Bregman would represent a massive upgrade for the White Sox, but they are extremely unlikely to be relevant enough for those wins to actually matter. (Bregman would help the Pale Hose avoid rounding to zero, skyrocketing their playoff probability to 1-in-1,455!) Their rivals on the North Side, the Cubs, also rank very low on this list for the opposite reason: ZiPS already sees the Cubs as having a very strong offense. Sure, marginal wins are valuable for any team, but it’s hard for the Cubs to really leverage Bregman without one of those downside scenarios occurring, such as underperformance from guys like Matt Shaw or Seiya Suzuki, or a rash of injuries to key players. If there were a pitching equivalent of Bregman available, the Cubs would likely be at the very top of this list.
The Astros are only in the middle of the pack in terms of playoff improvement with Bregman. But two other teams that have been rumored at times to be in the mix would see a major surge in their postseason odds if they were to sign him: the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox. The Tigers are in a position where the extra wins they’d get from Bregman would translate into a huge playoff probability boost, and though ZiPS thinks Jace Jung would be solid at third, signing Bregman would trigger a roster shuffle that would tighten up right field and the short side of Detroit’s DH platoon — the team’s two weakest positions, according to ZiPS. There’s been some speculation that Bregman could play second base for the Red Sox, but as ZiPS sees it, Boston would get more value from keeping Bregman at third, moving Rafael Devers to first, and letting Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida fight it out at DH. This alignment would require prospect Kristian Campbell to be on the roster and filling the team’s current hole at the keystone.
But the best place for Bregman, at least in the ZiPS projections, is another AL Central team: the Kansas City Royals. While the corner outfield scenario is absolutely brutal, especially if MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe get the vast majority of the playing time in left and right field, respectively, ZiPS sees merit in shifting Maikel Garcia or Michael Massey into one of the corner spots on the grass, with Bregman taking over at third. ZiPS also thinks Bregman would provide a terrific resolution of the hot corner questions in Cincinnati, though there’s probably even less of a chance the Reds would actually do this than the Royals. The Padres likely don’t have enough payroll flexibility even to offer Bregman a short-term deal with an opt out, but if they could find room in their budget, sell him on playing second base, and shift Jake Cronenworth to left field — or even convince Bregman to play left — there would be more high-end scenarios in which San Diego could make the Dodgers uncomfortable.
My gut says the Tigers will be the team to land Bregman, and likely very soon if it happens. They just shored up the rotation with the signing of Jack Flaherty at an extremely reasonable price, and as the projected fourth-place team in the AL Central right now, they have a lot to gain by adding a legitimate All-Star. There’s a way, but is there a will?
I worry that Jackson Merrill’s incredible rookie season has been appropriately recognized but underexamined. For any rookie to put up 5.3 WAR and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting is incredible; for a kid who was 20 years old on Opening Day and learning to play center field on the job, it’s extraordinary.
As impressive as that one-line summary is, Paul Skenes (and to a lesser extent Jackson Chourio) sucked up a lot of the shine that would have accompanied such a performance in most seasons. Shine can be hard to come by for a player on a West Coast non-Dodgers team that’s already got plenty of stars to promote.
So I found myself, in the dead of winter, contemplating what comes after the abstract for Merrill. Specifically, whether a certain nit is worth picking. Read the rest of this entry »
If you had to associate a single current major leaguer with throwing sinkers, Framber Valdez would be toward the top of the list. His standout career is all about throwing sinkers and keeping the ball on the ground. So imagine my surprise when I was perusing a leaderboard of starters who used their secondaries most frequently with two strikes in 2024. The top of that list is dotted with pitchers who confounded my classification system: We’ve got Corbin Burnes, Graham Ashcraft, and Clarke Schmidt there representing the cutter brigade. Most of the other pitchers in the top 10 mix in cutters liberally with two strikes. Then we’ve got Valdez, in 10th and looking sorely out of place.
Train your eyes on Valdez, and you’ll start to ask yourself: What’s going on here? In some ways, his statistics are consistent to the point of monotony. Take a look at his strikeout and walk rates over the years, plus some league-adjusted run prevention numbers:
Steady as She Goes – Framber Valdez, Career
Year
K%
BB%
ERA-
FIP-
2018
22.1%
15.6%
53
112
2019
20.7%
13.4%
130
110
2020
26.4%
5.6%
81
64
2021
21.9%
10.1%
73
95
2022
23.5%
8.1%
73
78
2023
24.8%
7.1%
82
82
2024
24.0%
7.8%
73
80
After some early-career wildness, Valdez has produced a string of near-identical seasons. But while doing that, he’s cut back on using his sinker to finish off hitters. I know what you’re thinking: Sure, to throw his wipeout curveball. But nope! It’s a changeup story:
A key piece of the 2024 Detroit Tigers reunited with the team on Sunday, as starting pitcher Jack Flaherty signed a two-year deal worth $35 million. Flaherty excelled for the Tigers last year, putting up a 2.95 ERA and a 3.12 FIP in 106 2/3 innings over 18 starts, good for 2.1 WAR. With the Tigers seemingly out of the playoff race in July, he was shipped to the Dodgers, with whom he won the World Series. He was respectable over 10 regular-season starts with Los Angeles, but his performance was decidedly mixed in the postseason.
Like many short-term contracts for solid players, this deal comes with its own ifs, ands, and buts. Flaherty’s guaranteed money is front-loaded, structured as a one-year, $25 million deal with a player option for $10 million in 2026 that increases to $20 million if he starts 15 games in 2025. Whether one sees the deal as a two-year contract with an opt-out or a one-year contract with a player option is a “potato, po-tah-to” issue that really doesn’t matter here; in this case, they’re the same functional thing.
What does matter is that Flaherty’s market appears to not have developed as much as that of some of the other top pitchers available. While it shouldn’t raise an eyebrow that Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes got much bigger contracts, Flaherty also received a lighter deal than Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino. While Flaherty didn’t miss any significant time due to injury last year — he skipped only a single start with lower back pain in July — questions about his back were enough for the Yankees to have second thoughts about trading for him at the deadline. The Dodgers were happy enough to acquire him, and though his strikeout rate dropped off (32% to 26%), he was certainly a net plus for an injury-thinned starting staff down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »
Jared Koenig’s path to big-league success was anything but smooth. The southpaw didn’t throw his first pitch in affiliated baseball until he was 27 years old, that coming in the Oakland Athletics organization after three seasons on the indie-ball circuit. And while he made his MLB debut the following year, he appeared in just 10 games, logging a 5.72 ERA and losing three of four decision. That was in 2022. Subsequently signed by San Diego, he put up nothing-special numbers in Triple-A and was cut loose by the Padres midway through the 2023 campaign.
The Brewers gave him another opportunity. Milwaukee inked the 6-foot-5 left-hander to a contract prior to last season, and they’re certainly glad they did. Working primarily out of the bullpen — he served as an opener on six occasions — Koenig made 55 appearances for the NL Central champs, putting up a 2.47 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 62 frames. Moreover, he was credited with nine wins and one save. Seemingly out of the blue, he’d come into his own as a 30-year-old rookie.
Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded of January, friends! The offseason continues apace, even as three qualifying-offer-tagged free agents are without a team and Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal as the calendar flips to February. Let’s get to it.
Right now, this has no effect. Kim will be out until May — at best — as he recovers from the shoulder surgery he had at the end of last season. Until then, Taylor Walls and José Caballero will cover shortstop, as they did last year. Once Kim is healthy, there might not be room on the roster for both Walls and Caballero since there are some redundancies between the two, though Caballero could get some time in the outfield to give manager Kevin Cash some more options.
Effect on Other Teams
Even if he won’t be ready for Opening Day, Kim was something that no remaining free agent is: unequivocally a starting-caliber shortstop. Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias are nice pieces who should play plenty for whichever teams sign them, but they’re not guys you’d ideally want to give four or five plate appearances every single game. Unless the Twins suddenly make Carlos Correa available or the Blue Jays sell (very) low on Bo Bichette, the trade market doesn’t have obvious answers for shortstop-needy teams either.
Effect on Similar Players
Kim was in a class of his own because of his injury, so his contract has little impact on any remaining free agents.
Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer for One Year, $15.5 Million
If nothing else, Toronto’s rotation is rich with experience. Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt have combined for over 44 years of service time, with newbie Bowden Francis and his mere year of service likely to round out the starting five. Scherzer’s signing probably bumps Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen, giving the Blue Jays six capable starters at the major league level, with Alek Manoah due back sometime down the stretch.
That depth is important to have for any team, especially so for the Jays since they really don’t have much in the upper minors. For that reason, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to add another starter to the mix; they’ve expressed interest in Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, the two best starters available.
Effect on Other Teams
The Blue Jays were reported as the favorites for Scherzer the day before he signed, so this pairing shouldn’t come as a surprise for the other clubs who were in the mix. And it shouldn’t be all that disappointing either. Scherzer turns 41 at the end of July and is no longer the coveted ace he was for the majority of his career; he’s a quality veteran starter, but nothing more. To be clear, teams need quality veteran starters, but there are plenty of those still available, such as Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Kyle Hart, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, and Cal Quantrill.
Effect on Similar Players
AARP discounts apparently don’t apply to Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and Alex Cobb, all of whom signed for at least $14 million on one-year deals. Quintana, Gibson, and Lynn are all entering their age-36 seasons or beyond, and $14 million should be a reasonable target for all of them, especially with Cobb getting his payday coming off just 22 MLB innings (including the postseason).
Estévez is certainly being paid closer money, and I’d guess that’s where he’ll slot in the Kansas City bullpen even if Lucas Erceg has better stuff and actually pitched better than Estévez down the stretch last season, after both pitchers were traded ahead of the deadline. Regardless of how exactly the games are finished, Estévez gives the Royals another high-octane reliever to go along with Erceg and Hunter Harvey. Side-arming righty John Schreiber will also have a spot, as should curveballing lefty Sam Long.
The Royals have a deep starting staff, so it’s possible that they’ll go with a six-man rotation to start the season; that would leave just two bullpen spots open for the likes of Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton (who’s on a guaranteed contract but wasn’t good last year), Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, and the out-of-options Carlos Hernández, among others.
Dodgers Sign Kirby Yates for One Year, $13 Million
If you’re a fantasy player, your brain is probably spinning trying to figure out how Dave Roberts will dole out saves between Yates, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips. If you’re Roberts himself, you’re thrilled with the embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. This unit is so deep that, so long as everyone is healthy, there really aren’t any spots up for grabs to start the season; because Shohei Ohtani won’t be ready to pitch by then, the Dodgers can carry only 13 pitchers, with six of those slots reserved for starters. That leaves seven spots for the aforementioned five relief arms, plus Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. Indeed, this roster crunch is already on display: To make room for Yates on the 40-man, the Dodgers designated Ryan Brasier for assignment.
Ben Clemens included Yates in his write-up of the Tanner Scott deal last week, when Yates to the Dodgers was first reported. You can read that piece here.
Tigers Sign Tommy Kahnle for One Year, $7.75 Million
Kahnle adds a veteran face to a ragtag Tigers bullpen that didn’t have a set closer for much of last year and probably won’t again. Like lefty Tyler Holton, Kahnle can get righties and lefties out thanks to his excellent changeup, and Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, and Will Vest should all factor into the late-inning mix as well. That leaves three spots and a host of relievers competing to fill them, including Sean Guenther and Brant Hurter, the unsung heroes of last year’s playoff run, Kenta Maeda, who could be boxed out of the rotation, and former closer Alex Lange.
Stanek’s re-signing gums up the works for a Mets bullpen that already doesn’t have a lot of flexibility. Edwin Díaz, A.J. Minter, José Buttó, and Stanek are locks to make the team, as is Griffin Canning if he’s not in the rotation. Assuming a six-man rotation is used to limit the innings of Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes, there could be just two bullpen spots left for a host of arms, including last year’s breakouts, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez, and three out-of-options relievers (Sean Reid-Foley, Dylan Covey, and Danny Young). Something will have to give, whether it’s a trade or two or simply waiting to see how spring training plays out and what injuries pop up.
While the Mariners certainly could’ve used more impactful offensive moves than just bringing Polanco back and adding Donovan Solano, their budget of around $15 million simply wasn’t going to allow for that.
There might be a little bit of room to squeeze another bat onto the roster without clearing someone else’s salary, but for now the infield looks more or less set. Polanco will start at third (not second, where he played last year), with J.P. Crawford at short, a combo of Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, and Solano at second, and the natural platoon pairing of Luke Raley and Solano at first.
Effect on Other Teams
The Astros were reportedly in on Polanco all offseason, and planned to move Jose Altuve to left field if they’d added him, which is also the plan if they bring Alex Bregman back to H-Town. All attention now turns back to Bregman and the Astros. The Astros want Bregman back, and there’s no reason to believe Bregman doesn’t want to be back. But at least from the outside, neither side seems any closer to budging.
Effect on Similar Players
The market for bounce-back infielders isn’t completely picked clean just yet. Yoán Moncada and Anthony Rizzo both had more injury-riddled seasons than Polanco, and Rizzo has struggled to produce ever since his concussion in late May of 2023. It stands to reason, then, that both will sign for less than Polanco, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising at this juncture if either or both of them have to settle for minor league deals.
Looking for a bounce back of his own, Hays is a nice fit for the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, but what this signing doesn’t do is settle the jumbled mess that is the Reds’ roster. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Hays was seeking “more regular” playing time after a tough season in a platoon role for the Orioles and Phillies that led to his non-tender. So it stands to reason that Hays will play against every lefty and plenty of righties. Hays is an outfielder who can play first base, but this team has so many hitters that it’s hard to tell where exactly he — and many of the others — will play.
Shortstop Elly De La Cruz, catcher Tyler Stephenson, and center fielder TJ Friedl are locked into regular playing time at a single position, but everyone else might be bouncing around. Hays, Jake Fraley, and the out-of-options Stuart Fairchild can play all three outfield positions; Spencer Steer can play all four corners as well as second base; Matt McLain put up 3.1 WAR as a middle infielder in 2023, but he missed all last season with a torn labrum and then got some outfield time in the Arizona Fall League last fall when he was finally healthy enough to return to the field; and Gavin Lux’s exact position is still to be determined. Oh, and there’s also Jeimer Candelario, who plays both corner infield spots, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and utilityman Santiago Espinal. New manager Terry Francona will have quite the evaluation on his hands come spring training.
Effect on Other Teams
Hays would’ve made sense for a lot of teams as a relatively young (he’ll be in his age-29 season) former All-Star, but not every team could have offered the playing time the Reds apparently did, not to mention the home ballpark. Teams looking for a lefty-mashing outfielder who can still hold his own against righties could turn to Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha. Teams could also target glove-first righty hitters such as Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor.
Effect on Similar Players
Grichuk had a far better season than Hays, so it stands to reason that he ought to do better than $5 million, even though he’s four years older and will probably mostly serve as the short side of a platoon. That’s because he’s essentially mastered that role; over the last four seasons, Grichuk has a 137 wRC+ against lefties. The Red Sox, Pirates, and Giants have all expressed interest, as shown in blue on the Matrix. Canha, a high-floor, low-ceiling corner outfielder and first baseman, and Bader should get around the $5 million salary that Hays earned, and Taylor may have to settle for a minor league deal after failing to make it through 2024 on the Pirates’ roster.
Díaz’s coming back into the fold should settle the Padres’ catching situation, even if he’s the only catcher assured of a spot. Díaz could be the starter, backup, or somewhere in between depending on who else makes the team. The three others in the mix are the former top prospect Luis Campusano, who was solid in a part-time role in 2023 before struggling on both sides of the ball last season, Brett Sullivan, who is out of options, and veteran Martín Maldonado, who is in camp on a minor league deal. Campusano and Sullivan are both on the 40-man roster.
That Díaz was released by the Rockies midseason and still earned $3.5 million bodes well for Grandal, who just put together a sneaky 1.4-WAR season. He could perhaps double the $2.5 million he signed with the Pirates last year, when he was coming off a two-season span in which he combined for -0.5 WAR.
Carlson’s deal is fully guaranteed but at a very modest price. In fact, this is now the cheapest free agent contract signed this offseason. (Congrats to Bryse Wilson for moving up to second cheapest!) That, combined with the fact that he can be optioned to the minors, means that Carlson is not assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster despite his major league contract.
As it stands, Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be Baltimore’s starting outfield, and DH/1B Ryan O’Hearn might get a little bit of playing time in the outfield corners as well. That leaves one or two reserve spots for Heston Kjerstad, the out-of-options Daz Cameron, and Carlson. Carlson’s switch-hitting and ability to play center field might give him an edge, but Cameron can play center as well. Spring training could be the deciding factor here. Plus, Carlson is coming off three straight years of what Davy Andrews in his write-up called “a spiral of injury and underperformance.” It’s possible that if Carlson, who is still only 26, is fully healthy for the first time since he finished third in the 2021 Rookie of the Year voting, he could be an excellent buy-low addition for the O’s. The most likely scenario appears to be that he starts the season in Triple-A and becomes a league-average depth piece in the outfield. There’s value in that, but it’s a far cry from what was expected of him during his days as a top prospect in the Cardinals system.
Effect on Other Teams
There was no guarantee that Carlson would get a major league deal after he put up an abysmal -1.0 WAR last season, and the other 29 teams still have plenty of internal and/or external options for reserve outfielders. This doesn’t have much if any impact outside of Baltimore.
Effect on Similar Players
Bench bats are a dime a dozen, but switch-hitters aren’t. Sam Haggerty and Robbie Grossman are still looking for jobs, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 and will likely have to settle for minor league deals.
Trades
Cubs Acquire Ryan Pressly, $5.5 Million from the Astros
Pressly will be the Cubs’ first big-name closer since David Robertson was traded away in 2022, but his acquisition doesn’t necessarily mean they are out of the relief-pitching market. As shown on the Matrix in blue, they’ve expressed interest in a host of free agent arms, including old friend Robertson.
As things stand, Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, and Caleb Thielbar should all have set roles, leaving two bullpen spots still up for grabs if the Cubs decide to use a six-man rotation because of their glut of starting options. Some of those depth starters could also end up in the bullpen, though they wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cubs from signing multiple relievers if the right deal came about.
Where the Astros Go From Here
It’s natural for one’s brain to immediately react to the Astros’ dumping $8.5 million of Pressly’s salary as providing a lane for an Bregman reunion, but the timing of the trade might be more coincidence than prerequisite. As Chandler Rome reported, Houston had been trying to move Pressly for most of the offseason.
Pressly’s departure makes the bullpen an obvious area for the Astros to upgrade, though since the impetus of this trade was to save money, any additions the Astros make there would be more modest in nature. The emergences of Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Kaleb Ort could help make up for the loss of Pressly.
Reds Acquire Taylor Rogers, $6 Million from the Giants
While the Giants were able to clear half of Rogers’ $12 million salary off the books, they’re ostensibly not going to reinvest that money into the bullpen or even another part of the roster. That, however, could just be posturing by president of baseball operations Buster Posey to maintain leverage in free agent talks; as mentioned in the relief pitching bonanza above, there are plenty of lefty arms looking for jobs, and the Giants could sign one and still run a lower payroll than they would’ve had with Rogers. Right now, Erik Miller is the only southpaw projected to be in the San Francisco bullpen.
Rumors of the Week
• The Padres offseason has been very quiet thus far — Díaz is the only free agent they’ve signed to a major league deal — but things could pick up a bit soon. According to Rosenthal, trades of either Dylan Cease or Michael King “remain in play” as the calendar hits February.
The Padres are trying to thread the needle of improving their rotation while also cutting payroll, which is why they desperately wanted to sign the cost-controlled Roki Sasaki. But now that Sasaki is a Dodger, trading away a starter might be the best way to add to their rotation. That sounds contradictory, but let me explain. The Padres could trade Cease and his $13.75 million salary or King, who on Friday agreed to a $4 million deal for 2025 that includes a $3.75 million buyout on a mutual option for 2026, and end up with two starters from trading one away: one coming back in the trade, and one signed with the cost savings. King’s new contract structure makes 2025 savings more negligible than if the entire $7.75 million applied to 2025, but that doesn’t mean the Padres wouldn’t trade him if the right offer came around.
For example (and these are entirely speculative teams and names), the Padres could trade one of their starters to the Orioles, Cubs, or Mets, with Dean Kremer, Javier Assad, or Tylor Megill coming back to San Diego in the trade. Then, with the savings, the Padres could sign a cheaper arm like Hart, Quintana, Gibson, or Lynn, among others. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that San Diego could “consider” Flaherty or Pivetta if it sends a starter packing, though as things stand, it seems like the Padres would have a difficult time fitting either of those guys into their budget.
• Speaking of Lynn, he might not even sign as a starter! Rosenthal dispatches that some teams are interested in the big righty as a late-inning reliever, and the veteran seems plenty open to the idea as a late-career pivot. His fastball-heavy approach could work even better when facing only a few hitters, and maybe he gains some velocity back after averaging 92.3 mph with his heater last season, his slowest since 2017. We currently project six bullpens at under 2 WAR (for comparison, the Twins lead the majors with a 5.2-WAR projection): the Angels, Marlins, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox.
I’m a big fan of Tommy Kahnle for reasons that don’t have that much to do with why the Tigers just signed him to a $7.75 million contract this week. Kahnle flatters the stereotype that most of a baseball team’s personality resides in its bullpen. I can offer two succinct anecdotes in support of the idea that Kahnle is someone your grandmother might euphemistically have referred to as “a character.”
The first: His torrid but fickle relationship with the Philadelphia Eagles. (Go Birds.) Kahnle has been on and offthe Eagles bandwagonand back on again over the course of his career. Kahnle put the Birds in timeout in 2020 over their firing of Doug Pederson, which — far from being a sign of disloyalty — is actually precisely the kind of ferocious idiosyncrasy that makes Eagles fans the kind of people you don’t let yourself get trapped in a 1-on-1 conversation with. (Take it from me, I’ll talk your ear off about how I thought Macho Harris was the next Brian Dawkins.)
The other endearingly weird thing about Kahnle is how much he loves to throw his changeup. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello from Tempe, where the air is filled with the never-ending drone of leaf blowers.
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Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna start chat off on a somewhat confrontational note.
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Eric A Longenhagen: There are (more this week than usual) lots of questions in my queue asking me to comment on other peoples’ work or opinions. Here are some examples:
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Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson (Tampa) not getting any love. The guy’s a 70 hitter with 80 speed—and he’s not on the top 100 anywhere. What am I missing about him?
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Johnny: who are some prospects you are higher and lower on consensus in the bluejays system
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Accudart: Dodger Ferris projections are quite varied…is his ceiling only sp3 or do you feel more .thanks
