After losing Gerrit Cole in free agency after the 2019 World Series and Justin Verlander to a torn UCL just six innings into the season, the Astros found themselves in desperate need of pitching help last year. Zack Greinke helped fill the void left by Charlie Morton’s departure, and Lance McCullers Jr. returned after missing all of 2019, but besides those two pitchers, there were more questions than answers in Houston’s rotation.

Insert a quintet of young pitchers with varying degrees of experience: Framber Valdez (107.2 MLB innings to his name), José Urquidy (41 MLB innings and a stellar upper-minors track record), and three pitchers with a lot of blank space on their résumés in Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Luis Garcia. With the help of these five and some clever piggybacking, the Astros overcame a mediocre regular-season record to oust Minnesota in the wild-card round and Oakland in the ALDS before falling to Tampa Bay in the ALCS.

Of that group, I want to focus on Garcia, for two reasons. First, he is the team’s current leader in pitching WAR, narrowly edging out Greinke, with a 2.82 ERA supported by a 28.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. Second, his rise to the big-league club was the most surprising of the five guys I mentioned above. He signed with Houston out of Venezuela at age 20 (which is old for an international amateur) for a mere $20,000. He had not pitched above high-A before his MLB call-up, though he did dominate the opposition at every level. In 2019, he saw a velocity bump and struck out almost 36% of the hitters he faced in 43 innings pitched at low-A, then whiffed 39.4% of batters he faced in 65.2 innings one level up.

Read the rest of this entry »

Because there are so few minor league baseball games on Mondays this year, you’ll see me play with the format of the Tuesday Daily Prospect Notes. I’m lucky that the top prospect in the sport, 20-year-old Tampa Bay Rays infielder Wander Franco, is likely to debut against the Red Sox this evening. The Franco report from the Rays/Top 100 lists still applies, and folks looking for a general overview of his talent should go jam on the clipboard here and read that if you haven’t already done so. Today I’m going to be breaking down his 2021 season using Synergy Baseball, a pitch-by-pitch video software program that is often used by MLB teams.

We made a decision to allocate scouting travel budget toward Synergy Baseball during the offseason, when the timeline for vaccines was still hazy but the presence of COVID was not. Unsure if/how much I’d be travelling again this year, we funneled money into Synergy in case I could not. It was initially useful for watching action in foreign pro leagues and during Spring Training as I worked on prospect lists, but Kevin Goldstein and I also have access to pitch-by-pitch video from Triple-A games (not the whole minors, just Triple-A), as well as metadata from each pitch. I can’t share video with you here (or anywhere) or I’d be in violation of MiLB.tv terms of service, but I can share with you some of the Franco metadata to illustrate the specific nature of his skills and put them in a big league context.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chas McCormick has already exceeded expectations. A 21st-round pick in the 2017 draft out of Division II Millersville University, the 26-year-old outfielder is getting semi-regular playing time with the Houston Astros, and he’s been sneaky good. His .226 batting average is nothing to write home about, but his 114 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR (as of Sunday night) are those of a rookie contributing to MLB’s highest-scoring team. That couldn’t have been predicted a few years ago — or even a few months ago. Coming into the current campaign, the West Chester, Pennsylvania native was No. 18 on our Astros Top Prospects list.

McCormick discussed his underdog-makes-good story when Houston visited Fenway Park earlier this month.

———

David Laurila: In many ways, you’re a classic overachiever. What is your background in that respect?

Chas McCormick: “When I was younger, like high school — even before — and maybe a little bit of college, I was never the best. If I had to try out for a team… I wasn’t very good at tryouts. I got cut from some summer-ball teams because I wasn’t the fastest player, I didn’t have the strongest arm, I didn’t hit the ball the farthest. I wasn’t the biggest guy, either. That’s why I really didn’t get Division 1 looks, just a couple Division II, Division III. But the more I played, especially in college, the more people realized that I was a gamer. I wouldn’t take batting practice and have scouts saying, ‘Wow, he’s putting on a show,’ it was more, ‘You’ve got to watch this kid play nine innings.’”

Laurila: When did you realize you had a legitimate shot to play pro ball?

McCormick: “Not in high school. I was thinking about playing basketball in college — or baseball — but again, just Division II, Division III. I wasn’t really on anyone’s radar. So out of high school, I wasn’t really thinking about pro baseball at all. Then I got to college, and that was [as] a pitcher. I was a little erratic and didn’t throw strikes very well, so that ended quickly.

“Anyway, freshman year, an outfielder got hurt and I ended up starting. I played really well — I batted leadoff a couple times and hit close to .340 — but I still didn’t think I could play pro ball because I didn’t really have the power. Then I ended up hitting some home runs in my sophomore year, and had a good average as well — I hit around .350. So after my sophomore year, I was like, ‘You know what? Maybe I could play professional baseball.’”

Laurila: You then didn’t get drafted after your junior year. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments here.

Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Rocket City Age: 21 Org Rank: 3  FV: 45+
Line: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 14 K
Notes
Detmers’ delivery starts out somewhat slow, almost nonchalant, but ends with an explosive arm action that hitters seem to have trouble gauging or reacting to. In the first game of the Trash Pandas’ Father’s Day double-header against the Biloxi Shuckers, Detmers got to work right away with an immaculate inning, fanning his first three hitters on nine pitches. He went on to strike out a total of fourteen Shuckers in his six innings of work before handing the game over to reliever Oliver Ortega for the save. Detmers is only the fourth pitcher in the history of the Angels’ minor league system to strike out 14 in a game — interestingly, only four days after his teammate Cooper Criswell became the third to do so.

Read the rest of this entry »

The biggest storyline in baseball this week was the announced crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances on the mound. It’s still too soon to tell how this might change the results on the field, but the early research suggests it could have wide reaching effects. Scoring is up in June league-wide, but that may be the normal result of warmer weather.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+) and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. I add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting based on a team’s expected win-loss record — to produce a power ranking.

The Dodgers have finally reclaimed the top spot in these rankings by winning 10 of their last 12. They’re about to get a lot healthier, too; Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger should be activated from the IL this coming week, and Corey Seager could start a rehab assignment as early as next weekend. That’s good, because their upcoming schedule is tough, with series against the Padres, Cubs, and Giants on the docket.

The Giants’ offense was absolutely dominant last week, beneficiaries of playing the Diamondbacks and Phillies at home; they scored 59 runs in seven games with Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski leading the way. Those two combined to collect 18 hits last week, including eleven extra-base hits and five home runs. But one of the biggest reasons for San Francisco’s continued success has been the vast improvement of its bullpen. At the end of April, Giants relievers had the second worst park- and league-adjusted FIP in baseball. Since that point, they’ve lowered their FIP- to 98 and their ERA- to 81.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday afternoon, I was working on a piece about why the trade market doesn’t heat up until July, and per habit, I chose a game to have on in the background while I work. I usually flip between them, focusing on where the action is based on the score and runners on base, but with the day just starting, I began with Oakland at New York. The A’s had Sean Manaea on the mound, which made me think about his 2013 spring, and a wasted trip to Normal, Illinois.

It’s easy to forget that Manaea entered that spring as a candidate for the top pick in the draft. He was a six-foot-five, physical left-hander who entered Indiana State with a mid-80s fastball but suddenly was up to 98 mph in the Cape Cod League two years later. There, he was universally seen as the best prospect during the 2012 season, putting up a 1.22 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 51.2 innings and allowing just 21 hits and seven walks.

Manaea was living up to expectations early that spring, but things took a turn for the worse on March 15 in a game at the Metrodome in Minneapolis. Manaea couldn’t find a comfortable landing spot for his front foot and irritated his right hip. The injury would affect him for the remainder of the season; he missed starts and at times was scratched at the last moment. When he did pitch, he performed quite well, but the stuff was also down, and considerably so at times. Figuring out where he would (and more importantly should) go in the draft was becoming the biggest challenge of the tear.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament was set to begin on Tuesday, April 20 at Duffy Bass Field in Normal, Illinois, on the campus of Illinois State University. Indiana State would take on Creighton in the first game, with first pitch at 10:00 AM and Manaea scheduled to pitch. It was quite possibly the last chance to see him before making a multi-million dollar decision on the player, and I was asked to attend.

Read the rest of this entry »

In no world is Juan Soto is having a bad year. Through games played on Saturday, he has more walks than strikeouts, a 128 wRC+, and a .272/.404/.426 triple slash in 240 plate appearances. He’s been worth 1.6 WAR in 58 games, thanks at least in part due to improved defense; ZiPS projects him to add another 3.5 wins the rest of the way, which would result in a career-high 5.1 WAR. Even at his current pace of 4.5 WAR, Soto would end the season as one of the more valuable players in baseball.

By his standards, however, Soto is actually having a bit of a down year. That 128 wRC+ I mentioned? That is just above his worst mark in any 58-game stretch (127) of his entire career. It still represents great production in a vacuum, and the fact that his worst wRC+ still is 127 is just another way to underscore his greatness. But at the same time, it still leaves us with a lot of questions, none more important than this: Why has Soto seen such a notable decrease in performance?

The answer might seem somewhat simple: He’s hitting far too many groundballs. Soto currently has a 55.3% groundball rate, seventh-highest in the majors. The fact that he’s still posting a 128 wRC+ in spite of that is borderline absurd; of the 30 qualified hitters with at least a 48% groundball rate, he has the highest wRC+, a testament to his phenomenal plate discipline and frequency of hard contact.

As a result of all of these grounders, Soto is embarking on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2020 journey. But while Vlad Jr. is currently elevating and celebrating this year, Soto is grounding and outing. Bad attempt at a rhyme aside, his groundballs mostly turn into outs. The ones that aren’t outs? They are singles, and they the reason why he has experienced a personal power outage. In his last 50 games, he has a .137 ISO, another career low for a sample that large.

Read the rest of this entry »

The major league season can seem interminable at times, but July marks a pivot from a stately march into a playoff chase. There are several milestones in the month — the halfway point of the season, the All-Star break, and so on — but the rubber doesn’t really hit the road until the trade deadline. By July 31 (or, this year, July 30), teams have to decide what their plans are for the rest of the year, and often future years as well. Buy? Sell? Hedge? The hot stove can determine the course of seasons, and we’re here to help you follow it.

FanGraphs has myriad tools that can help you figure out deadline targets, potential team weaknesses, and even who should be buying and selling. Let’s take a tour of those tools, because articles about which team should trade for which reliever might feed you for a day, but generating your own lists will feed you for a lifetime — so long as you derive sustenance from knowing which relievers and players on expiring contracts will most help your squad. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in December, Eric Longenhagen compiled FanGraphs’ annual Reds Prospect List, identifying 36 noteworthy players in Cincinnati’s system. Here’s an update on the top-ranked players and best performers from that list, along with some previously unlisted prospects who’ve made a case for themselves to be included in lists to come.

Updates on the Top Five:

Perhaps the most notable update for Jose Barrero (formerly Garcia) is in regard to his surname, which he changed last month to honor his late mother who passed away due to complications from COVID-19. On the field, he is still the Reds’ top-ranked player, with a slash line of .333/.392/.515 — good for a 151 wRC+  — at Double A. That’s a vast improvement over his numbers during the shortened 2020 season, when he was prematurely called up to the majors despite never having played above A-ball because of the Reds’ lackluster middle infield options. His strikeout rate is still too high for comfort (20.3%) and comes paired with a similarly unsatisfactory walk rate (8.4%), so his approach is still the order of the day in terms of his development.

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati’s no. 2 prospect, has seen a good amount of playing time this season, much of it at first base during the weeks that Joey Votto was on the IL. He has a 126 wRC+ on the season, with a 13.2% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate that are both better than league average, as is his slash line of .270/.383/.418. Despite the important role Stephenson has played, his at-bats are going to take a dip; with Votto back in the lineup, he will be relegated to sharing time behind the dish with Tucker Barnhart. Read the rest of this entry »

Imagine for a moment that the sabermetric movement never took hold in baseball. Hitters would still be valued based on batting average and RBI; pitchers would be measured on their win total and ERA. In this context, John Gant would be considered among the more effective pitchers on the Cardinals’ staff and in all of MLB. His 4–5 record is not impressive, but his 3.50 ERA ranks second on the team and 45th among all starters who have thrown 50 innings — firmly in the territory of a solid No. 2 starter.

A fan who looks beyond ERA, though, knows Gant has not been a good pitcher in 2021. He has struck out only 16.5% of the batters he has faced, a rate about 33% below average, and walked 15.8% of the batters he has faced, close to double the league average. To put that in context, Gant’s walk rate is second worst among all starting pitchers who threw at least 50 innings since 2018; Tyler Chatwood walked 19.6% of batters in 96 innings that season. His K-BB% is third worst, after Chatwood in ’18 and Bryan Mitchell in that same year. The degree of his struggles with his control is almost unparalleled:

Gant’s FIP stands at 5.01, 1.51 runs worse than his ERA. Incorporate batted ball data, and the picture gets worse; his SIERA is 5.97. All in all, he has been worth just 0.1 WAR in 61 innings.

I would imagine most, if not all, the readers of this website assume that Gant is bound to regress, probably to the point where he will not be in the Cardinals’ rotation either at some point this season or next. To say he is walking a fine line would be an understatement. But I am not going to get into why Gant will most likely struggle the rest of the way. Instead, I want to dig into why he has struggled.

First, take a look at Gant’s arsenal:

Gant has a broad array of offerings. Based on my research into pitcher repertoires and their reliance on two pitches, he is among the leaders in number of pitch types thrown and among the laggards in use of his top two pitches. He throws his two most used pitches, the sinker and changeup, 60.1% of the time. He also throws a slider, four-seamer, curveball, and cutter, all of which he uses enough that the batter at least has to think about the prospect of seeing any of them.

The diversity of pitches may not be doing him any favors, though. The league as a whole throws the ball in the zone 49.1% of the time, and batters swing a shade above 47% of the time. Gant’s zone rate is a little below the rest of the league at 46.6%, but he only induces swings on 42.3% of all pitches. Let me break it down by count:

Gant generally avoids the zone more than the rest of the league in most counts, with the largest deviations coming in hitters’ counts. He grooves pitches into the zone on 3–0 more than league average, but he lags by a noticeable amount in two-ball counts. His control struggles stand out most on 3–1 counts, though. Those are a bit different than 3–0 counts; batters swing so infrequently on 3–0 that you can be confident in throwing a pitch in the strike zone without major repercussions. In 3–1 counts, though, hitters become much more aggressive, hunting for a pitch they can hurt. For whatever reason, whether it is lack of control or lack of confidence in his stuff, Gant finds the zone a whopping 15% less than league average in those situations. Hitters have taken notice, swinging at only 37% of his offerings compared to 54.5% for all other pitchers. Batters also seem to have figured out that getting deep into counts against Gant is especially beneficial given his penchant for walks; they are only swinging at 35% of his 1–0 pitches (42.2% is average), 27.6% of his 2–0 pitches (versus 41.9% league-wide), and 49.3% of his 2–1 pitches (against the 58% average). Clearly the book is out on Gant and his passive approach.

Only one of Gant’s offerings, meanwhile, exceeds the league-average zone rate of 49.1%:

His sinker, the most used pitch in his arsenal, is the lone one he can consistently throw for strikes; the changeup, his second favorite pitch, only finds the zone 32.8% of the time. That is a large percentage of total pitches that hitters know will not be competitive.

Though Gant does not throw his curveball very often (8% of the time), his usage of the pitch is notable for one particular reason.

Gant throws the curveball on almost 20% of his first pitches in a plate appearance. Group that together with the changeup, and more than 30% of his first pitches are non-competitive. Focus on the counts where he struggles to find the strike zone (1–0, 2–0, 2–1, and 3–1) and on his pitch usage in them. Now look at how often he throws each pitch in the zone in those counts:

He has yet to throw a curveball in the strike zone after starting a plate appearance out with a ball. The changeup’s zone rate on 1–0 counts is only 41%. In 2–2 counts, most of his repertoire finds the zone at a rate 25% worse than league average. For 3–1 counts, the situations where he struggles the most, his two favorite pitches, the sinker and changeup, are thrown in the zone just 38.1% and 14.3% of the time, respectively; the rest of the league fills up the zone 60% of the time! His avoidance of the strike zone and subsequent lack of swings are astounding.

Add all of this up and you can understand why Gant is struggling to strike hitters out and keep them off the bases:

Gant is walking batters nearly four times more often than the league average on plate appearances that reach 0–2 counts and almost three times more often on plate appearances that are 0–1 and 1–2. While not as drastic, the same trend persists across all counts except 3–0, where he is more likely to pitch in the zone. Correspondingly, he is failing to put batters away when he reaches advantageous counts because hitters feel comfortable leaving the bat on their shoulders.

What does this mean for Gant going forward? Unless he makes drastic changes to how he attacks the opposition, he will continue to give out free passes and fail to put batters away via strikeouts, leading to traffic on the base paths and balls in play — the perfect recipe for opposing teams to put up crooked numbers. Is there a fix? He could start with throwing the ball in the strike zone more often, but if it were that simple, he would be doing it already. Maybe he lacks confidence in his stuff and fears what will happen if he lives in the strike zone at even a league-average rate. Or maybe he just does not have the control to be a starting pitcher.

The latter explanation would put the fault more on the club than Gant. If he is not capable of turning over a lineup effectively due to a lack of control, the impetus is on the Cardinals to make an adjustment. Without Jack Flaherty for an extended stretch and Miles Mikolas for all but four innings, as well as injuries to Kwang Hyun Kim and the struggles of Carlos Martinez to find his velocity, St. Louis has had a hard time piecing together a viable rotation. The only consistent options have been Adam Wainwright and Kim when healthy, with the talented yet raw Johan Oviedo brought up from Memphis as a reinforcement. If the club hopes to make a playoff push, Gant either needs to improve substantially in the very near future, or St. Louis needs to turn to other options, whether it be from the farm or via trade.