The top free agent pitcher in baseball is no longer a free agent. After an interminable PR tour, Trevor Bauer has signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Jon Heyman first reported. The deal, a three-year, $102 million pact with opt outs after each year, bolsters an already-stout Dodgers rotation and ups the NL West arms race after the Padres’ busy offseason.

It would hardly be honest to write about Bauer without mentioning who he is as a person, so let’s do that first. For lack of a better way to say it, he’s a jerk, a troll. That’s not harsh enough, but it points in the right direction. “Troll” undersells it: time and again, Bauer has stepped up to the line and then gone past it, lashing out and inducing his fans to harass someone before acting shocked at the fallout, claiming innocence.

I won’t detail each individual incident, but suffice it to say that this goes beyond your typical Twitter sniping. The pattern is shockingly similar each time: Bauer takes offense at some perceived slight on social media, berates and otherwise insults the source of that slight (sometimes at great length), and then with a quote tweet, points his fans and followers in the woman’s direction (and it’s almost always a woman), who then proceed to harass her.

Eventually, Bauer issues a banal non-apology about how he never intended to harm anyone and doesn’t believe he did anything wrong, despite the glib falsity of that statement. This isn’t an isolated incident, a poor decision made in his rash youth. It’s a pattern, and a well-documented one.

I’m not here to legislate how you feel about that. I’ll simply invite you to consider how it feels to root for someone who repeatedly takes advantage of his popularity and power to make life worse for people without those things; how it feels to be one of those people. For the remainder of this article, though, I’m going to talk about what this means on the field, on the days where Bauer is pitching, though that hasn’t always been without conflict either. Read the rest of this entry »

After sitting idly by for most of the winter, the Phillies suddenly sprung into action last week. They finally got their long-term deal done with J.T. Realmuto, emphatically answering one the biggest lingering questions of their offseason. They re-signed Didi Gregorius, addressing another major area of need at shortstop. But those moves overshadowed two smaller ones aimed at shoring up the back of their starting rotation, with Philadelphia signing Matt Moore to a one-year, $3 million deal with additional performance bonuses last Friday, then adding Chase Anderson on Thursday on a one-year contract worth a guaranteed $4 million. It’s no secret that many teams are worried about the workload of their pitching staffs after the abbreviated season last year, and a number have already committed to using six-man rotations to lighten the load on their starters. It appears the Phillies could be pursuing a similar strategy.

With Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler leading the way, the Phillies’ rotation was actually a strength in 2020. That duo accumulated a combined four WAR last year, and both are returning for 2021. Zach Eflin’s revamped curveball, meanwhile, translated into a breakout season for the 26-year-old, making him a solid mid-rotation starter if those adjustments hold.

But the rest of the starting five is filled with question marks. Jake Arrieta’s three-year deal expired this offseason, so he’s out of the picture. Vince Velasquez continued to be an unpredictable enigma, posting an ugly 5.56 ERA that far outpaced his 4.16 FIP. Top pitching prospect Spencer Howard made his MLB debut in 2020, but it was an experience he’d like to forget. Poor conditioning and the delayed start to the year sapped him of his stamina during the season, with his fastball velocity noticeably dropping as the innings wore on in each of his starts. With two shoulder injuries in his recent past, it’s hard to say what to expect from Howard in 2021.

So while neither Moore or Anderson are projected to be better than back-end starters at best, they do give the Phillies some options when filling out their rotation.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m going to spend about half this article trying to deceive you. I just thought you should know that upfront. Why? Alex Chamberlain wrote a wonderful article about Kyle Hendricks yesterday, and it reminded me of one of my favorite paradoxical findings about pitching. Now, I’m going to use that finding to bamboozle you — or at least, that’s the plan.

Hendricks, you see, is spectacular at throwing pitches in the shadow zone, the boundaries of the strike zone and the area just outside of it. That’s an obviously useful skill. When you watch a pitcher painting the corners, it doesn’t just feel like hitters are unlikely to make solid contact, it’s actually true. Batters have worse outcomes on the borderline part of the plate than in any other zone.

Here’s a statement that I don’t think is at all controversial: pitchers exercise a lot of control over where they throw the ball. It’s not like exit velocity — mostly batter-controlled — or walk rate, which depends on myriad factors that both pitcher and batter affect. Where a pitcher throws the ball should be up to, well, the pitcher.

It stands to reason that if pitchers control where the ball goes, there will be leaders and laggards at it. As it turns out, there are! As Chamberlain pointed out, no one has thrown a higher percentage of their pitches in the shadow zone (since 2015) than Kyle Hendricks; Marco Gonzales is narrowly behind in second place. Sure sounds like a skill to me. Read the rest of this entry »

With spring training suddenly less than two weeks away after the players’ union rejected Major League Baseball’s proposal to delay the start of the season, on Thursday I made note of the recent flurry of free agent activity while rounding up the top players at each position who remain on the market. Six of those placed among our Top 50 Free Agents, including two in our top 10, namely Marcell Ozuna and Justin Turner; as I was writing, a seventh, Kolten Wong, agreed to terms with the Brewers.

Likewise, as I was putting that together, relievers Alex Colomé and Joakim Soria came off the board, and as I turned my attention to this batch of still-available free agent starters and relievers, the Trevor Bauer chase appeared as though it could end before I filed, though that proved to be a false alarm. Anyway, until he signs, this group includes eight free agents in our Top 50, six starters and two relievers. Without further ado…

[Update: Further ado necessary, because on Friday afternoon, Bauer agreed to a three-year, $102-million deal with the Dodgers — not the Mets, a bit of a shock as the sequence below indicates. Ben Clemens’ analysis is here. I’ve left the rest of this article as written.]

Starters

Bauer is the reigning NL Cy Young winner and the top free agent still available according to our list; Craig Edwards placed him third behind J.T. Realmuto and George Springer, both of whom brought home nine-figure deals. The question is whether the 30-year-old righty will do the same. As of Thursday, the pursuit appears to be down to the Mets and Dodgers, with the other teams that have shown significant interest, including the Blue Jays and Padres, having falling by the wayside.

MLB.com’s Jon Heyman reported that the Mets’ offer is believed to be three years and close to $100 million, with an opt-out after the first year. Via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the Dodgers are believed to be interested in a one- or two-year deal possibly worth more than $36 million annually, which would surpass Bauer’s former UCLA teammate Gerrit Cole for the highest AAV in MLB history. On Thursday evening, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that Bauer had agreed to a deal with the Mets, though six minutes later, Feinsand refuted that report. Read the rest of this entry »

On September 4, 2020 in Kansas City, Alex Colomé had one of those nights where he just didn’t have it. It took him 40 pitches, only 23 for strikes, to get four outs and preserve a White Sox 7-3 victory over the Royals. With one out in the ninth, he missed a location with the second best of his two pitches. James McCann set up in and Colomé missed out with a 94 mph fastball, which Jorge Soler nailed with an exit velocity approaching 110 mph. If Soler had pulled the ball, it would have been in the seats, but he thankfully couldn’t get around on it; the ball went oppo, and a well-positioned Nomar Mazara easily jogged it down. Check out the end of the video as Colomé shakes his head, knowing he made a mistake, and maybe a couple, in terms of both location and pitch type.

Ten days later in Chicago, Colomé wasn’t especially sharp but kept runs off the board to finish up a 3-1 win over the Twins, who became his new team this week as he inked a one-year deal with a unique mutual option. With two outs in the ninth and looking to end the game, Colomé had the rare extreme miss with his signature cutter. Yasmani Grandal wanted one down and out, knowing Buxton couldn’t do much damage there, but Colomé delivered a center-cut meatball that the center fielder hammered. The good news was that the ball was a line drive to the left fielder. The bad news? That left fielder was Eloy Jiménez, who absolutely zooed the ball, resulting in an inside-the-park home run that was later reversed to a ground-rule double.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jeter Downs can swing it. As Eric Longenhgan wrote last month, the top prospect in the Boston Red Sox organization “has been a polished, advanced-for-his-age hitter dating back to high school.” That attribute led to Downs being drafted 32nd overall by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017, and subsequently included in a pair of major trades. In December 2018, he went to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a seven-player swap that included Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood, and 12 months ago he came to Boston as part of the Mookie Betts deal. A 22-year-old second baseman who finished 2019 in Double-A, Downs projects, per Longenhgan, as an everyday player at the major-league level.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with a self scouting report: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Jeter Downs: “I like to think of myself as a contact-first guy. I’m not the biggest guy in the world — I’m 5-foot-11 and usually between 185 and 188 [pounds] — so I don’t try to hit for power. That’s something that comes naturally, from having the right approach. I call home runs ‘a mistake,’ honestly. You don’t try to hit home runs; they just happen. Basically, I just try to get in good counts and swing at good pitches.”

Laurila: How would you describe your swing?

Downs: “If you go by numbers and results, they would show that I’m more of a loft guy. But at the end of the day, I just try to put a nice level swing on the ball and hit it hard. I’m not trying to hit the ball in the air. I’m just trying to hit nice line drives everywhere.”

Laurila: Eric Longenhagen wrote that you punish pitches down in the zone, but that you could be susceptible to getting tied up by velocity in on your hands. Do you agree with that? Read the rest of this entry »

With the players’ union rejecting Major League Baseball’s proposal to delay the start of the 2021 season by a month in hopes of winter coronavirus rates declining, the start of spring training is less than two weeks away, and from a logistical standpoint, so much remains undecided. Will there be a universal designated hitter? Will last year’s experiments with seven-inning doubleheader games and man-on-second extra inning rules carry over? What will the playoff format be? From a personnel standpoint, more than 150 free agents are still looking for work.  

The ice has begun to thaw for some of the top free agents, particularly in the past two weeks as the likes of George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Michael Brantley, Brad Hand, Marcus Semien, Nelson Cruz, Kolten Wong, Joakim Soria, and Alex Colomé have found homes; news of the last three doing so broke while I was working on this very piece. That still leaves 14 members of our annual Top 50 Free Agents list in limbo, as well as numerous other players outside the 50 who could fill substantial roles.

What follows here is a quick trip around the diamond to note the best players still available at each position, whether they’re in our Top 50 (as six of the following were) or not; admittedly, the cupboard is better stocked in some spots than others. I’ll have a companion piece on the starters and relievers in the near future. Read the rest of this entry »

This week, one NL Central team has acquired the best defender at a key infield position. He’ll be playing the 2021 season at age-30, and he was below average offensively in 2020, so it’s not as though there aren’t red flags, but great defense doesn’t grow on trees. That’s right: the Brewers signed Kolten Wong to a two-year, $18 million contract, as Jon Morosi first reported.

While Nolan Arenado might have fallen behind Matt Chapman in the third base defense hierarchy, Wong reigns supreme at second. For three straight years, he’s won the Fielding Bible award at second base. Every advanced defensive metric sees him as the best fielder in the game over the past three years. Bigger fan of the eye test? He can do this:

Okay, fine, single defensive highlights are a bad reflection of talent. But he can do this, too:

I could go on all day if there weren’t an article to write. Wong is one of my very favorite players to watch. This is a transaction analysis, though, so I’ll restrain myself, and merely say that our very good defensive projections for Wong might still be conservative. Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe the Rays are getting nervous. Two and half months ago, they watched Charlie Morton sign with Atlanta as a free agent. About a month later, they traded staff ace Blake Snell to San Diego. Those were the two best starters on a team that leaned heavily on its rotation, but Tampa’s only addition so far this winter has been embattled right-hander Michael Wacha at a mere $3 million. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have landed one major free agent after another, and the Yankees still look very much like a juggernaut. As of Tuesday morning, Tampa Bay ranked 10th in the American League in our Depth Charts projected WAR standings — fourth in the AL East — just a few months after winning the pennant.

But with spring training (theoretically) fast approaching, the Rays finally signed another starting pitcher on Tuesday, adding a familiar face to the rotation.

Right-hander Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a one-year, $6.5 million deal, pending physical, sources tell ESPN.

Archer, 32, returns to the organization where he debuted and found his greatest success.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 2, 2021

To be clear, Chris Archer is no replacement for the starters Tampa Bay lost this winter. He’s posted an ERA over 4.00 in each of his last four seasons and missed all of 2020 after undergoing surgery to treat neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome. Effectiveness in the first season back from that injury — one of the most serious a pitcher can experience — is far from guaranteed. Tampa’s familiarity with Archer, however, made the team willing to bet on the 32-year-old right-hander anyway.

Read the rest of this entry »

From the moment the offseason officially started five days after the end of the World Series, the most predictable headline of the winter was “Nelson Cruz Signs One-Year Deal With the Twins.” It took three months, but last night it finally happened, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting the signing and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding that the deal will net Cruz $13 million.

Cruz, who turns 41 in July, is an ageless wonder, even though that number gives teams looking at eight-figure investments significant pause. Two years ago, he was a free agent after an exceptional run with the Mariners during which he put up a 147 wRC+ and averaged 41 home runs a season. He lobbied hard for a two-year deal, but most teams countered with one-year offers. It was understandable: Cruz has been defying the aging curve for years and has no value beyond the bat, so if Father Time suddenly catches up to him, he becomes a candidate for a quick release. Back in 2019, he was pushing 39 and coming off a declining season in terms of your standard triple-slash line, but the underlying metrics looked good, as his strikeout rate was actually declining, and his exit velocities were in line. Still, most models would not be especially kind to Cruz or any player entering his age-39 season. These are not the years when players start to slip a little; they’re the ones when players fall off the cliff.

Here at FanGraphs, Cruz ranked as one of the top 20 free agents on the market that winter, and I was shocked, surprised and frankly quite impressed to see that ZiPS still saw the good in the player, projecting a minor bounce-back 2019 campaign at .266/.348/.500. The Twins took the plunge by meeting Cruz halfway on his multi-year demand, paying him $14 million for the 2019 campaign with a $12 million option for the following year.

They were rewarded amply. Instead of falling of the cliff, Cruz instead rocketed higher, putting up a career-high OPS of 1.031 and making his 2020 option a no-brainer. The cliff avoided him again that season, and the production was similar.

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