Archive for Daily Graphings

Pirates Broadcaster Joe Block Ranks the Best of the Central

Joe Block knows the Central. Not only do the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team he serves as a play-by-play announcer for, compete in the National League Central, their inter-league schedule this year is solely comprised of the American League Central. As a result, Block has been getting regular looks at two of the game’s most evenly-matched divisions. Neither had a clear-cut favorite coming into the season, and by and large there haven’t been many surprises.

How would Block rank the teams and players he’s seen this season? That was the crux of a conversation I had with the TV (and sometimes radio) voice of the Pirates prior to Sunday’s game.

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David Laurila: Which is the best team you’ve seen this year?

Joe Block: “I think it’s a tossup between the three AL Central teams we’ve seen: the White Sox, the Twins, and Cleveland. Cleveland wasn’t hitting when we saw them, although when you look at that lineup they should hit. I don’t know that I can put them lower than anyone else because of their elite pitching. It seems like their bullpen is complete. Their rotation is obviously very good, even with the trade of Mike Clevinger, which happened since we saw them. I’m of the belief that pitching wins in the postseason. You can argue whether it’s relief pitching, or starting pitching like we saw with Washington last year, but I think they have what it takes to go deep in the postseason.

“Minnesota is coming off a great year. They’ve added to their rotation, and they also have a good bullpen, especially the back end. Romo–Rogers is a really nice one-two. They obviously hit, and they’re not a team that’s all-or-nothing. They have some good hitters, just plain ‘hitters’ as opposed to softball-style home run, swing-and-miss-type cats. So they’re very much a big part of the picture in the AL Central. If you look at their numbers, they haven’t hit to the degree they have in the past, but they’re dangerous.

“Then there are the White Sox, who we’ve seen for two games. Lucas Giolito threw a no-hitter, and we also saw Dallas Keuchel. They’ve clearly added to their team. It’s always an en vogue selection when you have a bunch of young players coming up at the same time, and go out and get a few key free agents, and in this case it’s warranted. The only possible flaw is that they’ve got a very right-handed lineup, but other than that they don’t have a lot of weaknesses. They’ve got a lot of good young players who — I’m going to use a cliché here — don’t know how to lose. I kind of buy into that a little bit. They’re new, they’re exciting, they’re good — and the veterans they got make sense for that team. They’re very balanced. Read the rest of this entry »


Unpacking the Yankees’ Three Week Nosedive

On August 17, the New York Yankees finished up a 6-3 victory against the Boston Red Sox and extended their win streak to six games. The team was 16-6 on the season and had the best record in baseball. They then commenced a seven-game losing streak on their way to a three week stretch during which the club went 5-14, bringing its season mark to 21-20. In a 162-game season, 19 games is less than 12% of the season, but this year, it represents nearly a third of the season and nearly half of the team’s games played thus far. With just 19 games left to go, another 5-14 stretch would push the Yankees out of the playoffs. While that scenario isn’t likely — our Playoff Odds have the Yankees at 89% odds entering games today — it’s worth exploring what’s gone wrong and whether we can expect it to continue.

To take a broad view, here are the Yankees’ major-league ranks with the season split between their good and bad stretches:

Yankees’ Major League Ranks
wRC+ wRC+ Rank SP WAR SP WAR Rank RP WAR RP WAR Rank
Through 8/17 127 1st 1.2 15th 1.2 9th
8/18-9/7 80 25th 1.4 14th -1.4 30th
Overall 106 12th 2.5 16th 0 24th

The offense and relief pitching have fallen off a cliff while the starting pitching has remained middle of the pack. It’s fair to say that the rotation should be better, but it has been about as effective during the free fall as it was when things were going well. Gerrit Cole has had a run of bad starts and James Paxton has been dinged up; Michael King has had one good start and one bad one during this stretch, while Jordan Montgomery has had some clunkers, too. Still, Masahiro Tanaka has pitched well and Deivi García and J.A. Happ have turned in some decent starts. The rotation has underperformed expectations the entire season (Yankees starters ranked first on our preseason Positional Power Rankings), but they’ve been more average than bad pretty consistently. Given that the Yankees have had four doubleheaders in the last three weeks, the rotation has arguably held up pretty well. If Paxton were healthy and Cole was pitching as expected, the rotation would be one of the best in baseball. That they aren’t is hurting the team, but it’s hardly the sole source of New York’s troubles. Read the rest of this entry »


OOTP Brewers: Escalator Up, Elevator Down

When we last checked in on our Out Of The Park Brewers experiment, the season hung in the balance. We had fallen two games behind the Pirates — that’s bad! — but were mere days away from welcoming Christian Yelich back from the Injured List — that’s good! The sprint to the end of the season figured to be a high-leverage thrill ride.

For about two days, that played out. On August 19, the Brewers hit a season-high 16 games above .500 and pulled within a half game of the Pirates. Yelich was back. Everything was coming together nicely. Then the team lost seven straight games while the Pirates went 5-2. Just like that, it was a 5.5-game deficit in the Central, with the Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies now locked in a dead heat for the second Wild Card.

How does something like that happen? Reasonably easily, to be honest. Not every playoff contender has a seven-game losing streak, but the margins are slim. Two of the games were one-run affairs, while another featured a seven-run meltdown in the ninth inning to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A 3-4 stretch would have looked extremely different than 0-7.

Things were still fine, though. The Pirates weren’t quite out of reach, and based on the fact that I called it a seven-game losing streak, clearly the team won the next day. Now the Wild Card race was a dead heat, and Yelich was settled in. Surely this would be a turning point. Read the rest of this entry »


Oblique Strain Interrupts Teoscar Hernández’s Breakout

Even before they dropped 10 runs on a beleaguered Yankees bullpen on Monday night, the Blue Jays rated as one of the season’s top success stories. Coming off three straight sub-.500 seasons, forced out of their home country and into their Triple-A ballpark amid the coronavirus pandemic, and fielding the majors’ youngest lineup, the temporary inhabitants of Buffalo’s Sahlen Field are nonetheless running second in the American League East at 23-18, 4 1/2 games behind the Rays (28-14) but two games ahead of the banged-up Yankees (21-20). While much of the focus has been on the likes of Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. given their pedigrees, their best hitter to date has been Teoscar Hernández, but the 27-year-old slugger’s impressive breakout has been interrupted by a left oblique strain and he appears likely to miss “serious time.”

After going hitless in back-to-back starts for the first time this season — an outage which in this case ended his career-high 15-game hitting streak — Hernández went 3-for-5 on Saturday against the Red Sox, with a 442-foot solo homer to center field off Ryan Weber in the second inning:

The homer was his 14th of the season, pulling him into a short-lived tie with Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr. for the major league lead; within the hour, Trout homered against the Astros, the 300th of his career no less, and Tatis homered Sunday, but that’s impressive company nonetheless.

However, Hernández’s day ended on a down note, as he suffered a left oblique strain while striking out in his final plate appearance, against Mike Kickham. An MRI taken on Sunday morning proved inconclusive, and so the Blue Jays planned for him to get a second MRI once the swelling reduced, but the team placed him on the 10-day Injured List on Monday nonetheless. “That’s going to be a big loss if he has to go out a while,” Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters on Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »


The Southpaw Advantage

Editor’s Note: An abridged version of this study appeared at FiveThirtyEight on August 17, 2020 under the title “What Really Gives Left-Handed Pitchers Their Edge?”

Left-handed pitching has long been one of the most prized commodities in professional baseball. Teams strive to obtain lefty pitchers, and those pitchers recognize their competitive edge. Two-sport athlete Tom Glavine explained his career choice this way: “I love both sports, but the deciding factor was, being a left-handed pitcher, I had a huge advantage in baseball because of that, and I didn’t have that type of advantage in hockey.” Even a century ago, Tris Speaker expressed the sport’s reverence for southpaws – if falling short as a trade analyst – when he opined that “taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard.”

Major league rosters reflect this preference for lefties today. Although just 10% of American men throw with their left hand, fully 28% of innings thrown by major league pitchers come from the left side. And before you blame lefty relief specialists for this disparity, consider that southpaws also make 29% of starts. Any way that you cut the data, lefty pitchers make it to the big leagues about three times as frequently as righties, given their share of the general population. What accounts for this huge surplus of southpaws? Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Tom Grieve Day Came Without the Wheels

Tom Grieve had a relatively nondescript playing career. From 1970-1979, the now-72-year-old former outfielder logged 474 hits, 65 of which left the yard, and a 100 wRC+. Those numbers came primarily with the Texas Rangers, who had drafted Grieve out of the University of Michigan while the franchise was still located in Washington DC.

Grieve is a product of Pittsfield, Massachusetts, and while he grew up rooting for the New York Yankees, one of his biggest thrills came in his home state’s most-famous sports venue. The date was May 5, 1974, and the event itself was proceeded by a certain amount of trepidation.

“Billy Martin was the manager at the time,” explained Grieve, who is now a TV analyst for the Rangers. “Jim Fregosi and I had been playing against left-handed pitchers, and Mike Hargrove and Jim Spencer had been playing against right-handed pitchers. Anyway, the people of Pittsfield had called the Red Sox and were somehow able to set up ‘Tom Grieve Day’ at Fenway Park between games of a Sunday doubleheader. Usually when there’s a day for someone at a ballpark, it’s for a Hall of Fame player, so I can remember going to Boston knowing that it was going to happen, and being a little bit embarrassed.”

Not to mention wary of what his manager might think. Not only was Grieve a 26-year-old platoon player, Martin had donned pinstripes for much of his own playing career. Moreover, Martin was notoriously as combative as they come. Read the rest of this entry »


White Sox Rookie Matt Foster Has a Horseshoe in His Hip Pocket

Two decades before Matt Foster was born, Dr. John had a hit single with “Right Place, Wrong Time.” Later covered by the Dave Matthews Band, as well as B.B. King and Bonnie Raitt, the song is true to its title. Funk-fused in sound, “Right Place, Wrong Time” is essentially an ode to misfortune.

Foster has had the opposite experience since debuting with the Chicago White Sox on August 1. Seventeen innings into his big-league career, the 25-year-right-hander has a won-lost record of 4-0. By and large, Foster has been in the right place at the right time.

Which isn’t to say he hasn’t pitched well. The Valley, Alabama native has allowed just eight hits and three runs in his 17 frames, and he’s fanned 21 batters along the way. Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that Foster is a former 20th-round draft pick who came into the 2020 campaign with limited expectations. Despite a solid 2019 season in Triple-A, he garnered a mere honorable mention on our 2020 White Sox Top Prospects list.

Foster’s first big-league appearance came against the Kansas City Royals, and his initial emotions might be best described as falsely placid.

“When I got on the mound, I was like, ‘I’m really not that nervous,’ said Foster. “Then [Jorge] Soler got the first hit off me, and I was still kind of, ‘Well, OK.’ But then I threw an 0-0 slider to Salvador Perez and he almost took it yard. Then I was like, ‘OK, I’m nervous. This is real.’” Read the rest of this entry »


The Joy Given and the Joy Taken Away

Here is a story from yesterday: At the beginning of July, Yoán Moncada tested positive for COVID-19. He didn’t know where or how he got the disease. He missed the beginning of the White Sox training camp, sitting at home, his sense of smell and taste — a tell-tale symptom — temporarily gone. When he was cleared to come to camp two weeks later, manager Rick Renteria said that he looked “like he hadn’t skipped a beat.” Moncada himself said that he was “glad to be back and be healthy,” though his days since the diagnosis had been “scary and a difficult time.”

And yesterday, three months after that frightening positive test, Moncada spoke to reporters about how the virus is still affecting him. He described it as a battle — to summon the energy that had, prior to getting COVID-19, been abundant; to simply make it through each day, to push through the “weird feeling” that has drained him of his strength. “But that’s just something I have to deal with,” he concluded, “and it is what it is. I have to find a way to get through it.”

***

Here’s another story from yesterday: Even before the pandemic, Minor League Baseball as we know it was in limbo. MLB’s plan to contract the minor leagues, moving them under the purview of the MLB head office and leaving dozens of franchises staring down an uncertain future, became public knowledge in the dying days of the 2019 season.

Our world has changed dramatically since last October. MLB’s plan hasn’t. If anything, the Office of the Commissioner has even more justification to squeeze the minors: The pandemic has dealt a death-blow to many minor-league teams, whose profits, unlike those of major-league teams, are largely tied to game day ticket and concession sales. And yesterday, an ESPN report detailed the confusion and bitterness around the impending fundamental changes coming to the minors. Some minor league owners have been lobbying lawmakers to step in, and team owners have continued to attempt negotiations with MLB. But the deal, it seems, is done, and most teams are just trying to be among those left standing when this is all over. “Minor League Baseball,” as the article says, “a tradition of languid summer nights at ballparks where families can afford to watch future stars, has been reduced to a paranoid game of ‘Survivor.'”

***

And here’s another story from yesterday: In an interview with ESPN, Manny Machado — resurgent and resplendent on the Padres team that has taken baseball by storm — talked a lot about fun, and he talked a lot about joy. Fun: the connecting line between his experience of baseball now, as a multi-millionaire professional, and his experience of baseball as a kid. Joy: the experience that Machado feels the Padres bringing to their fans, to the sport of baseball in general. Here’s what Machado had to say about fun:

At the end of the day, it’s about going out there and having fun. And when you’re having fun, baseball just comes naturally to you. … I’ve been doing this a long time, and honestly it’s the same game right now as when I was a kid. You gotta catch the ball, you gotta throw the ball, you gotta hit the ball. The baseball has obviously gotten better, the bats have gotten better, the gloves have gotten better, the technology has gotten a lot better. But it’s the same game. It’s the same game that we love to play.

You didn’t think about stats, you didn’t think about home runs, you didn’t think about any of that when you were young. You were thinking about just going out there and having fun and getting ready to go have pizza with a soda at the end of the game and playing with your friends. It’s the same game now. Obviously it’s at the highest level, but you just have to go out there and enjoy yourself. And with the group that we have here, every single day it goes back to that. We just wanna have fun. And when you play at ease like that, it maximizes your level.

And here’s what he had to say about joy:

Going to the ballpark every day, people are excited. And obviously it sucks that we don’t have fans in the stands, but we have a lot of media telling us what’s going on with social media, people cheering us on. We’re bringing so much joy to this game every single night that every time we step on that field, we just wanna go out there and have a good time no matter if we’re losing or we’re winning. We just wanna go out there and just play baseball and give fans something to cheer for.

This season, Machado said, with this team, is the most fun he’s had playing baseball in a long time.

***

These three stories, all of them published on the same day — this is the emotional experience of baseball in 2020, paranoia and relief and depression and elation, all transposed into the familiar key of nine (or sometimes seven) innings, three outs, three strikes, all roiling together. If you let yourself settle into it, half-close your eyes and focus on something else, you can almost forget the turmoil of the world outside the empty stadiums. That never lasts long. There is always something that makes you remember. Sometimes it’s unique to this year — players sick, games canceled; other times, the ill that’s exposed was there all along. Sports are products of the societies that create them, and the society major league baseball currently inhabits is far from healthy. Major league baseball breathes, but its breath is labored, its face a little grey. Any illness in dirty air becomes obvious.

But then — all of a sudden, there is life again. There are five grand slams, a no-hitter. Favorite players do well. Games are walked off. Success knocks, unexpected, and then arrives, crossing the doorstep with a flourish. There are smiles, even laughs. Having fun. And there are others, all the other people out there, feeling that same sharp jolt. Joy. 

You see it in the moments immediately following Lucas Giolito’s no-hitter, the achievement of a lifetime after so much struggle. He feels it, that surge in the heart. It is transcendent. He is overwhelmed by it. His teammates are overwhelmed by it. They throw their arms around each other.

And it is in that second that you remember the pandemic — the danger — remember that they aren’t supposed to be doing this, that they shouldn’t be this close — remember how long it’s been since you’ve been able to hug all your own loved ones, to even be near them — and the jolt becomes a gasp. Pain.

There is so much we have lost, and so much we may yet lose. And baseball, for all it may contain, can’t cancel those losses out.

***

In the drawer where I keep all my papers and old notebooks, beside the newspaper my brother brought me from Washington, D.C., the day after the Nationals won the World Series, there’s a crumpled package of photocopied sheets, poorly stapled, bent in eight different directions. I got the sheets from a counselor back in December. I can’t do anything, I told him: everything overwhelms me, everything is bad.  The counselor was sympathetic, but since I was not in obvious, imminent danger of harming myself or others, there was little he could offer me. So he offered me the sheets of paper — cognitive behavioral therapy homework, the kind I’ve seen so many times. I never did the homework. I had forgotten about it until I unearthed it yesterday. Searching for old notes, my eye immediately caught on the only bolded phrase on the page, confronting me almost like a threat: Fun is not an option. It is important!

Of all the various tenets of stress management that I’ve read over the years, this has always been one that I’ve reflexively discarded. Of course, fun is important, but what about everything else? What about taking care of the people around me? What about making enough money to eat, to pay for the roof over my head? The pandemic has made the collective experiences that I would search for fun in either rare or nonexistent. And it has made the important concerns, the ones that left so little time for fun, all the more urgent. Fun is not an option — but for many people, for most people, it has to be. Other things have to come first. We are trying to survive as best we can. It is so hard to see, sometimes, where there is room for fun. The clock is always ticking, and the fun, the joy — it’s all on stolen time.

***

But I steal it, still. From the grand slams and the walk-offs, the no-hitters and the blowouts — I steal the joy that the players carry, wherever I can find it. And the pandemic is still here, everywhere, every breath of air and every touch suspect. And the pain runs deep in every conversation with people I can’t see, in every news item detailing more murders, more overdoses, more fires burning, and the money is dwindling, and the jobs don’t call back, and even in the morning the sleep doesn’t come. What, in the face of a darkening future, could justify this theft?

But I steal that joy, the joy carried to me through the pixels and the fake noise. I cling to it before it dissipates, as it always does, its particles consumed by thicker, heavier air. It might be wrong. It might be foolish. But I always find myself waiting for the next chance to feel that sharp life in my chest. To know that, despite everything, there are places where joy can be found — even when it shouldn’t be there.


How Did Austin Nola Become So Danged Valuable?

San Diego’s big move at the deadline involved acquiring Mike Clevinger. Of course, they made a number of smaller moves as well, adding relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Taylor Williams, catcher Jason Castro, and designated hitter/first baseman Mitch Moreland. All of those deals made a ton of sense, but the one that jumps out, the deal that makes you wonder what exactly is going through A.J. Preller’s head, involved giving up a good prospect in Taylor Trammell, along with a few other useful players, for a package headlined by 30-year-old catcher Austin Nola and his 377 big league plate appearances. I suspect it caused many to ask, “Who is Austin Nola?” and “Why was he so valuable?”

Before we get to Nola, let’s first acknowledge that our evaluations of Taylor Trammell might be a bit off. He graded out as a 55 Future Value-level prospect when traded from the Reds a year ago, but he fell to a 50 on the Padres list this season, projecting to be an average regular. That’s a very good prospect, and one of the top 100 in the game, but he isn’t a surefire starting left fielder. As such, it’s possible Trammell’s trade value is slightly lower than the prospect consensus. Of course, we also need to mention that the Padres sent multiple other players to Seattle in power reliever Andres Muñoz, potential role player Ty France, and 24-year-old catcher Luis Torrens, whose development has been slow since joining the Padres as a Rule 5 pick before the 2017 season. And while the Padres did get two other relievers in Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla, explaining the Nola-Trammell swap as resulting from a drop in Trammell’s value doesn’t quite do enough, as even with a dip, he still provides a decent amount of value and the other players included add more to the trade. To really explain the deal, we need to explain Austin Nola, a player any team could have signed less than two years ago.

Nola was a fifth-round pick by the Marlins back in 2012 and signed for $75,000. This is what Baseball America had to say in their report:

Austin Nola has been drafted twice already, never higher than the 31st round. He was playing at a higher level as a senior, having played with younger brother Aaron, a right-hander who should be a high draft pick in 2014. The 6-foot, 188-pound shortstop plays with confidence, especially on defense, where his hands are sure and his feet surprisingly nimble considering his below-average speed. He lacks impact with his bat, though he has improved his plate discipline and contact ability slightly over the course of his career. He’s a career .296 hitter who gives consistent effort and performance while lacking upside.

Already 22 years old when he was drafted, by 2014 Nola was playing in Double-A and putting up an average hitting line. In the Arizona Fall League, he captured the attention of Carson Cistulli and on the 2015 Marlins prospect list, he merited mention by Kiley McDaniel as “a solid utility type that’s just good enough at shortstop to play there for stretches while he hits liners gap to gap.” There was little to no power in his game and after a nondescript 2016 season, the erstwhile editor of FanGraphs noted that Nola “continued in 2015 to exhibit the sort defensive value and contact skills typical of the overlooked prospect. The almost complete lack of power in both cases, however, renders [Nola] unlikely to provide much value in the majors.” Read the rest of this entry »


Remembering the Terrific Tom Seaver (1944-2020)

Not for nothing did they call Tom Seaver “The Franchise.” When he debuted in 1967, the Mets lost 101 games, their fifth time in triple digits in six seasons of existence. Two years later, he led the team not only to its first winning record but to an upset of the powerhouse Baltimore Orioles in the World Series. A month shy of his 25th birthday, he had given “the Miracle Mets” a leg up against the crosstown Yankees, who were going through a fallow period after dominating baseball for four and a half decades, and in doing so he became an all-American icon. Uniting a powerful, efficient “drop and drive” delivery with a cerebral approach and impeccable command, he would go on to check virtually every important box in his 20-year major league career, winning three Cy Young awards, making 12 All-Star teams, leading his league in a triple crown category 11 times, tossing a no-hitter, surpassing the 300-win and 3,000-strikeout milestones, and setting a record with the highest share of a Hall of Fame vote when he became eligible in 1992.

Last summer, in celebrating the 50th anniversary of that championship, the Mets announced that they would officially designate the address of Citi Field as 41 Seaver Way (after his uniform number, which they retired in 1988), and dedicate a statue to “Tom Terrific.” Alas, by that point, Seaver’s family had gone public with the news that he had been diagnosed with dementia and was retiring from public life; he had battled health problems for years, including multiple bouts with Lyme disease. He missed the anniversary festivities and never lived to see the statue’s completion. Seaver passed away on Wednesday at age 75. According to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, he died peacefully in his sleep from complications of Lewy body dementia and COVID-19.

Seaver spent 11 1/2 of his 20 seasons with the Mets, departing in rather traumatic fashion first on June 15, 1977, in a trade to the Reds that was dubbed “The Midnight Massacre,” and then again in 1983, when after returning to New York via a trade and spending a season back in Queens, he was left unprotected in what was called the free agent compensation draft. He spent 2 1/2 years with the White Sox and his final half-season aiding the 1986 Red Sox’s pennant push, though a late-season knee injury kept him off the postseason roster and he could only watch as his former team won its second World Series.

Seaver was so durable that he made at least 32 starts and threw at least 200 innings in the first 13 seasons of his career and in 16 in all, the last at age 40. He finished with an ERA+ of at least 100 while qualifying for the ERA title in 18 of those seasons, including his final one at age 41; that’s tied with Walter Johnson for fourth behind only Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Cy Young, all with 19. His 3,640 strikeouts still rank sixth all-time, while his 311 wins rank 18th. He’s seventh in shutouts (61), 15th in starts (647), 19th in innings (4,783), walks (1,390) and home runs allowed (380), and in a virtual tie for 22nd among pitchers with at least 2,500 innings in ERA+ (127).

On the advanced statistical front, his 109.9 bWAR (including offense) ranks sixth behind only Johnson, Young, Clemens, Pete Alexander, and Kid Nichols. His seven-year peak score is “only” 20th, but his 84.6 JAWS is eighth; every pitcher ahead of him save for Clemens last pitched in the majors prior to World War II. Read the rest of this entry »